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As the market volatility continues, Ethereum (ETH) has dropped 3.1% in the daily timeframe and is attempting to hold a key price area as support once again. Despite the dip, some analysts have suggested that the King of Altcoin is set to start a new expansion phase soon. Ethereum Retests Major Support Zone On Wednesday, Ethereum fell below the $4,000 level for the third time this week, retesting a crucial area before bouncing. The cryptocurrency has been trading within the $3,800-$4,800 price range in the daily timeframe since the early August breakout. During the recent market correction, ETH briefly lost its local range, reaching a two-month low of $3,435 last Friday. Nonetheless, the price quickly bounced from the lows, reclaiming the $4,000 area over the weekend. Since then, the King of Altcoins has been hovering around the lows, attempting to reclaim the range’s mid-zone but ultimately failing. As the price retested the $3,900 area, Daan Crypto Trades noted that Ethereum has been able to maintain daily closes above the $4,100 area despite this week’s volatility, suggesting that a recovery of this level is still possible today. Nonetheless, failing to hold this area in the daily timeframe could propel a drop to the $3,800 support and risk a potential dip to the $3,400 mark. The trader also warned that the cryptocurrency must also hold the $4,100 region on the weekly timeframe to maintain its current structure and target a climb to the range highs around $4,800. He affirmed that “the real fun starts if this can trade and close above $5K. Until then, we’re range-bound within those two levels.” Similarly, Ali Martinez highlighted that ETH could see a 28%-53% rally based on Ethereum’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. According to the analyst, if the price holds the $3,900 level, which is a major support, “the Pricing Bands point to a move toward $5,000 or even $6,000.” Is A Repeat Of ETH’s 2021 Playbook Coming? Other market watchers have also shared a positive long-term outlook for ETH, suggesting that investors shouldn’t worry about the recent price pullbacks. Analyst Crypto Jelle pointed out the 18-month descending broadening wedge formation on Ethereum’s chart, which was broken out of during the Q3 rally. Jelle noted that the cryptocurrency is “just holding the breakout area as support,” consolidating between the breakout area and the last cycle’s ATH. To the analyst, ETH looks “very ready for a rapid expansion higher” once it breaks out of the accumulation range. Meanwhile, Crypto Kaleo emphasized the structural similarities between the beginning of the last bull market’s breakout and Ethereum’s current price action. Per the chart, the King of Altcoins traded within a two-year range during the previous cycle, retesting the range’s resistance twice and briefly deviating below the range’s low before breaking out. Then, ETH saw a multi-month accumulation period above the breakout level before continuing its rally toward new highs. Kaleo’s post highlighted that the cryptocurrency appears to be repeating a similar playbook, currently consolidating before potentially resuming its run toward higher targets in the next few months. As of this writing, ETH is trading at $4,001, a 11.3% decline in the weekly timeframe.

A positive risk sentiment is undermining demand for the safe-haven CHF and helping to limit losses for the pair. However, expectations of Fed rate cuts, renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown continue to put pressure on the dollar. The USD/CHF pair is attempting to halt its decline today. U.S. dollar selling has continued for the third consecutive day amid growing concerns about economic risks linked to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and renewed trade tensions with China. Additional downward pressure comes from dovish expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy — a key factor weighing on the dollar's exchange rate. On Wednesday, the Senate once again failed to pass the government funding bill approved by the House of Representatives — for the ninth time. The government shutdown, which began on October 1, has now lasted three weeks. At the same time, tensions between the U.S. and China have intensified: the U.S. has expanded restrictions on the export of technological goods, while China has announced strict controls over rare earth metals — further fueling fears of a full-scale trade war. Meanwhile, market participants are already pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the U.S. central bank at two upcoming meetings — in October and December. This trend is largely supported by the dovish tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said on Tuesday that the labor market remains in a depressed state, with low hiring and firing activity. This continues to favor dollar bears. However, the positive sentiment in equity markets is preventing the Swiss franc — a traditional safe-haven asset — from strengthening too sharply. This also helps attract buyers to the USD/CHF pair around the 0.7935–0.7930 area. Today, special attention should be paid to the speeches of several influential FOMC members, which could provide new signals and shift market dynamics during the North American session. From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped into negative territory, indicating weakness among the bulls. Nevertheless, the pair will likely attempt to halt its decline. If it manages to break above 0.7975, prices may gain momentum to reach the 0.8000 psychological level, with 0.7990 acting as an intermediate resistance. However, failure to hold above 0.7958 could push the pair down to 0.7940. A drop below that level would mean USD/CHF losing its footing, accelerating the fall toward the 0.7900 level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Advance Most Read: EUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish Continuation Stock markets were mostly up across Asia on Thursday, driven by a strong rebound in the chip sector and a good start to the US earnings season. Japan’s Nikkei index climbed 1.2%, heavily boosted by chip and Artificial Intelligence (AI) related stocks. This momentum increased after Taiwanese chip giant TSMC announced record earnings, and also because political developments raised the chances that pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi would become Japan's next Prime Minister. Even though the announcement came after its market closed, Taiwanese stocks finished the day up 1.4%, hitting a new record. South Korea’s KOSPI index also surged, jumping 2.2% to a record peak, after a high-level official expressed optimism about ongoing talks to finalize a trade deal with the US Similarly, Australia’s main stock index added 0.9% and hit its own record high, a rise fueled by the hope that poor recent job data would encourage the central bank to cut interest rates soon. However, the Chinese markets lagged behind: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.7%, and mainland Chinese stocks were flat, as investors remain cautious about the complicated and uncertain path of trade relations with the US. UK Economy Shows Resilience, Bigger Picture Remains a Concern The UK economy grew slightly in August 2025, expanding by 0.1%, which reversed a small decline in July and met market expectations, but the growth was narrowly focused. The primary driver of this modest expansion was the production sector, which grew by 0.4%, bouncing back after shrinking the month before. This increase was led by strong growth in manufacturing (up 0.7%) and the energy/utilities sector. However, the largest part of the economy, the services sector, showed zero overall growth for the second month in a row. While some areas like administrative support and healthcare saw strong growth, these were completely canceled out by significant drops in other consumer-facing industries like retail/wholesale trade, arts/entertainment, and transportation. Furthermore, the construction sector shrank by 0.3%, mainly because repair and maintenance work decreased. This overall picture suggests the UK economy is struggling to gain solid, broad momentum. With that in mind the OBR is still likely to downgrade its economic assessment in the Autumn, blowing a £25bn hole in the budget relative to the Spring Statement in March. European Session - Nestle Rallies 7.5% European stock markets saw a marginal uptick on Thursday as market participants processed a mix of company earnings, following a week of volatility driven by tariff concerns. The overall STOXX 600 index nudged up 0.06%. The day's movement was characterized by strong gains in the food and beverage sector being balanced out by losses in the travel and leisure sector. The biggest winner was Nestle, the world’s largest packaged food company, whose stock climbed 7.59% after it reported sales growth that was better than expected and announced plans to cut 16,000 jobs. However, not all companies shared this success. French spirits maker Pernod Ricard dipped 0.77% after confirming a previously warned-about 7.6% drop in sales, which it blamed on weak consumer demand and stores reducing inventory in China and the US. In the UK, hotel operator Whitbread fell 7.1% after reporting a drop in half-year profit due to lower food and beverage sales. On the positive side, Franco-German lab equipment company Sartorius and its French unit both saw their shares jump over 9% after releasing positive quarterly results and forecasts. On the FX front, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly on Thursday, continuing its recent slide, as concerns over the trade war between the US and China weighed on sentiment. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against other currencies, was down 0.16% and heading for a weekly loss. In Europe, the euro climbed 0.12% to a one-week high as traders became confident that French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu would survive two no-confidence votes in parliament, which helps reduce political uncertainty for the currency. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen briefly strengthened before leveling out, as the country's s ruling party began talks with a potential new partner (the Japan Innovation Party) that could help the pro-stimulus candidate Sanae Takaichi secure the Prime Minister position next week. Separately, the Australian dollar slipped 0.36% after new data revealed that unemployment had hit a four-year high in September, increasing the likelihood that Australia's central bank might cut interest rates. Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased by about 1% on Thursday, rebounding from earlier losses, after a statement from US President Donald Trump suggested that global supply could tighten. Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised India would stop buying oil from Russia. Since India and China are currently the two largest buyers of Russian crude, a halt by India would remove a significant amount of discounted oil from the market, potentially driving up prices elsewhere. This news caused both Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures to rise by around 1%, with Brent trading at $62.47 a barrel and WTI at $58.85 a barrel. Gold prices soared to yet another record high on Thursday, marking the fifth day in a row of gains, as investors continue to rush toward the metal as a safe investment. This sustained rally is being fueled by multiple sources of global and domestic uncertainty. Spot gold rose to $4,232.39 per ounce, after setting an all-time record of $4,241.77 in the Asian session.. For more on the movement of Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the Day Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The most important issue for financial markets right now is the unstable relationship between the US and China, particularly ahead of two critical dates. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet around October 29-31 at the APEC summit in Korea, just before the November 10th deadline when US tariffs on Chinese goods are set to jump significantly if no agreement is reached. The big unknown is whether China's aggressive move to impose export controls on rare earth materials is a genuine, long-term threat or simply a powerful tactic to gain concessions in the upcoming talks. This step by China has clearly alarmed G7 nations, who are preparing a rare joint statement of protest. While US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hinted at a longer extension on existing tariffs if tensions ease, the failure to resolve these rare earth controls could lead to a very difficult and volatile few weeks for markets worldwide. Due to the US government shutdown, no key economic data is being released today. Instead, attention will turn to speeches being given by two Federal Reserve officials, Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, later this afternoon (around 3:00 PM CET). Both of these officials are known for favoring a cautious approach, or even cuts, to interest rates, which could put slight downward pressure on the US dollar. As a result, the dollar index could remain close to the 98.50 level today. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the 100-day MA. However the most recent four-hour candle has closed as an inverted hammer candlestick which does hint at further upside. The period-14 RSI is trading below the 50 level hinting at bearish momentum. If this breaks back above the 50 mark, we could see the FTSE 100 rally back toward the Tuesday highs around the 9500 mark. Meanwhile a rejection at current price levels could set the FTSE up to retest support at 9357 before the 200-day MA at 9326 comes into focus. FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, October 16. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after consolidating above the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594 and closed above the 1.1645–1.1656 resistance level. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the next 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718. A consolidation below 1.1645–1.1656 would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward the 1.1594 corrective level. The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the high of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Therefore, the trend is now turning bullish. Recent labor market data, the Fed's shifting monetary policy outlook, and Trump's renewed aggression toward China all support bullish traders. On Wednesday, the bulls had few strong reasons for a new offensive. However, I want to draw traders' attention to the fact that since Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday evening, only the bulls have been attacking, while the dollar keeps falling. I don't believe Powell's comments made most traders significantly more "dovish" regarding the FOMC's monetary policy outlook, but his speech itself may have acted as a trigger for the market. In recent weeks, I've repeatedly wondered: why has the dollar been rising when Donald Trump continues to escalate trade aggression against many countries, the Fed is expected to further ease monetary policy, and the U.S. labor market keeps weakening? In my view, the bulls hold all the cards needed to continue pressing forward. It seems they deliberately stepped back a little to buy the euro and sell the dollar at better prices. Therefore, I expect a new bullish trend, which should prove fairly long-lasting. By the way, the U.S. government shutdown continues, and Powell understands that rate cuts will be necessary, as the labor market cannot survive without them. On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below 1.1680, which allows traders to anticipate a continuation of the decline toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1495. However, a bullish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, which halted the decline. A close above 1.1680 and the descending trend channel would favor the euro and signal a resumption of the bullish trend toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1854. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report: During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. The sentiment of the Non-commercial group remains bullish, largely thanks to Donald Trump, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long contracts held by speculators is now 252,000, while short positions amount to 138,000 — nearly a twofold difference. In addition, note the number of green cells in the upper table, which indicate strong position-building in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines. For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing their short positions and increasing their long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause many long-term structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite several important trade deals being signed, many key economic indicators continue to show weakness. News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone: U.S. – Philadelphia Fed Business Activity Index (12:30 UTC)Eurozone – ECB President Christine Lagarde's Speech (16:00 UTC)On October 16, the economic calendar contains two entries, neither of which is particularly noteworthy. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday is expected to be weak. EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations: Sell positions may be considered upon a close below the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1594. Buy positions could previously be considered upon a close above 1.1594, with a target of 1.1645–1.1656, which has already been reached. Today, a consolidation above 1.1645–1.1656 allows for new buy trades with a target of 1.1718. Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday and reached the new resistance level of 1.3425–1.3431. A rebound of quotes from this zone will favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a moderate decline toward the support level of 1.3357–1.3360. A firm breakout above 1.3425–1.3431 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next 50.0% retracement level at 1.3487. The wave structure turned "bullish" in almost a single day. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, but the most recent upward wave broke the previous high. The news background in recent weeks has been negative for the U.S. dollar, yet bullish traders had not taken advantage of the opportunities to advance. Now they may finally be spreading their wings. This morning, the U.K. released important reports on industrial production and GDP for August. The British economy grew by 0.1% m/m, in line with market expectations. Industrial production volumes increased by 0.4%, which exceeded forecasts. However, so far the pound has not used these data to extend its rally. The 1.3425–1.3431 resistance level may have played a role in halting the sterling's advance. It is also worth noting that after the speeches by Donald Trump and Jerome Powell on Tuesday evening, it's now the bulls who are attacking. In my view, this is quite logical. Bulls had been retreating for a long time, even though they had opportunities to strike. Jerome Powell made it clear to traders that the Fed is likely to continue easing its monetary policy. Donald Trump first raised tariffs on China to 100%, then threatened to cut off all relations with Beijing, followed by reports of 500% tariffs. Thus, there is absolutely no sign of "de-escalation" in U.S.-China relations. However, bullish traders now have a solid fundamental base and very favorable prices for a long-term offensive. On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the pound after forming a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator, and then rose to the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3435. A rebound from this level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. currency and some decline. A breakout above this level would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3795. No new emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report: The sentiment of the Non-commercial category of traders became more bullish during the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions now stands roughly at 85,000 vs. 86,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the scales in their favor. In my view, the pound still faces downside risks, but with each passing month the U.S. dollar looks weaker and weaker. If previously traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies without knowing what consequences they might bring, now they may be concerned about those very consequences: a possible recession, the continuous introduction of new tariffs, and Trump's confrontation with the Federal Reserve — which could result in the regulator becoming politically subordinate to the White House. Thus, the pound now looks far less vulnerable than the U.S. dollar. News Calendar for the U.S. and U.K.: U.K. – GDP Change (06:00 UTC)U.K. – Industrial Production Change (06:00 UTC)U.S. – Philadelphia Fed Business Activity Index (12:30 UTC)On October 16, the economic calendar contains three entries, two of which have already been released. The influence of the remaining news background on market sentiment throughout the rest of the day is expected to be very weak. GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations: Sell positions may be considered upon a rebound from the 1.3425–1.3431 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3360. Buy positions can be considered if the pair closes above the 1.3425–1.3431 level, with a target of 1.3487. Fibonacci grids are built between 1.3725–1.3247 on the hourly chart and 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against a number of risk assets as more Federal Reserve officials voice support for cutting interest rates at the upcoming meeting scheduled for the end of October this year. Steven Miran, a so-called Trump appointee, stated in an interview yesterday that recent trade tensions have heightened uncertainty about growth prospects, making it more important for policymakers to cut interest rates quickly. "There are now more downside risks than there were a week ago, and I think we, as policymakers, have to acknowledge that," Miran said on Wednesday. According to him, the increased uncertainty surrounding trade policy between China and the U.S. has created new downside risks. "I would say that right now I want even lower rates than a week or a month ago," Miran added. "However, given the change in the balance of risks, I think it's even more important to move quickly toward a more neutral policy." It is clear that many economists and market participants supported Miran's position, emphasizing that rate cuts are necessary to stimulate the economy amid growing uncertainty — a sentiment reflected in the weakening U.S. dollar. However, others voiced concerns about the potential negative consequences of sharp rate reductions. The risks of fueling inflation and devaluing the national currency are higher with such an approach. For this reason, a more balanced and gradual easing of monetary policy is needed — one that takes into account the current economic situation and potential threats. It is worth recalling that companies operating within the semiconductor supply chain are preparing for a full-scale trade war after President Donald Trump last week threatened to impose additional 100% tariffs on China. This move followed restrictions introduced by the Asian nation on the export of rare earth metals, to which the U.S. responded by saying it would also consider controlling the sale of any critical software. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking this Tuesday, confirmed expectations for a second consecutive quarter-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting of officials later this month. Concerns that a slowdown in hiring could trigger a rise in unemployment are likely to influence the decision — even though inflation still remains above the Fed's 2% target. As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to focus on breaking above 1.1680. Only that will allow them to aim for a test of 1.1715. From there, the pair could rise to 1.1745, though doing so without the support of major players will be quite challenging. The most distant target remains the 1.1765 high. In case of a decline, I expect significant buying activity only around 1.1644. If no support is found there, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1614 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1580. Regarding the GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3450. Only then can they target 1.3480, above which further progress will be difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3525 level. If the pair declines, bears will attempt to regain control around 1.3400. If successful, a breakout below this range would seriously damage the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to 1.3370, with the potential to reach 1.3333. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Yesterday, the European currency continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. Traders are now focusing primarily on the divergence between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve's policy paths: the former has no plans to change its stance anytime soon, while the American regulator, on the contrary, intends to actively cut rates by the end of the year. Yesterday, European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stated that there are currently no grounds for changing interest rates and warned that certain components of inflation require ongoing attention. Although it is still too early to say what will happen with borrowing costs in the coming months, the head of the Bundesbank noted that consumer prices are almost aligned with the 2% target. "I see that we are close to our target," Nagel said on Wednesday. "I don't see any reason to change anything unless something new emerges. But I don't see where that might come from." ECB officials are generally satisfied with the current level of interest rates, repeatedly describing monetary policy as being in good shape. Most believe that inflation—despite a projected shortfall over the next two years—will remain around 2%, and they are confident that the region's economy is successfully coping with the shocks caused by U.S. tariffs. However, some policymakers are reluctant to rule out another deposit rate cut, which has already been reduced eight times during this cycle, mindful that consumer price growth could stagnate below the target. President Christine Lagarde recently stated that she would never declare an end to easing, as the current favorable situation could still change. Incidentally, she is scheduled to speak again today. One of the officials advocating to keep the option of further rate cuts open is Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau. In a separate interview this week, the French official said that although the ECB is in a good position, that does not necessarily mean its stance is fixed. "The inflation risk is more tilted to the downside," Villeroy said. "Therefore, if there is a next move, I think a rate cut is more likely than an increase," he added. For now, the difference between the two regulators' policies is fully evident: the euro continues to strengthen, while the U.S. dollar is losing ground. Most likely, this trend will persist. As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to work on breaking above 1.1680. Only that will allow for a test of 1.1715. From there, it could move up to 1.1745, although doing so without support from large players will be quite challenging. The furthest target is the 1.1765 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1644. If no support is found there, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1614 low or open long positions from 1.1580. Regarding the GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3450. Only then will they be able to target 1.3480, above which further progress will be difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3525 level. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control around 1.3400. If successful, a break below this range would seriously damage the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to 1.3370, with a potential extension to 1.3333. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On-chain data shows the short-term holder Bitcoin whales have recently increased their Realized Cap share to the highest level ever. Bitcoin Is Currently Being Dominated By New Capital In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the share of the Bitcoin whale Realized Cap held by the short-term holders. The Realized Cap here is an on-chain indicator that measures, in short, the total amount of capital that the BTC investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. Changes in this metric reflect the incoming or outgoing of capital. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Cap of only a portion of holders is of interest: the whales. These are the entities carrying more than 1,000 BTC (about $111.4 million) in their balance. Whales can be further broken down into cohorts on the basis of holding time. Whale-sized holders who bought their coins within the past 155 days are known as the short-term holder (STH) or new whales. Similarly, those who have a holding time higher than this cutoff are called the long-term holder (LTH) or old whales. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows how the Bitcoin Realized Cap dominance of these two groups has changed over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, new whales have rapidly gained ground in the Bitcoin Realized Cap recently and hit a dominance of 44%. The STH whales represent the big-money capital that has come into the coin over the last 155 days. Thus, it would appear that 44% of the capital stored on the BTC network is currently “fresh.” This is the largest share of the whale Realized Cap that the STHs alone have occupied in the cryptocurrency’s history. To put things into perspective, the 2021 bull run topped out at a value of 31%. The STH whales gain Realized Cap dominance through two means: a transfer of coins between members of the cohort at a higher price and selling from the LTH whales. LTH whales are the resolute hands of the market who hold out through volatile periods in wait for profitable exit opportunities. These smart-money investors usually ramp up their selling during bull runs and transfer their coins to new money coming into Bitcoin. As long as demand is high enough to absorb this distribution, the rally continues, but once capital inflows drop off, the asset hits a top. So far, the growth in the STH whale Realized Cap share has maintained, but it only remains to be seen how much room is still left. BTC Price Bitcoin has been struggling to recover since Friday’s crash as its price is still trading around $111,400.

The crypto crash continued on Wednesday as selling pressure intensified across most sectors. The total crypto market cap fell another 1.2% to $3.78 trillion, with fear levels climbing as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 32 (Fear). Amid growing uncertainty, traders are already looking for the next crypto to explode once the market stabilizes. Bitcoin .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path:nth-of-type(2) { stroke: #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive { color: #008868 !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.positive { border: 1px solid #008868; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive::before { border-bottom: 4px solid #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-price-holder .cwp-coin-trend-holder .cwp-trend { background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.negative svg path:nth-of-type(2) { stroke: #A90C0C !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.negative { border: 1px solid #A90C0C; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.negative { color: #A90C0C !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.negative::before { border-top: 4px solid #A90C0C !important; } Bitcoin BTC $110,927.03 1.80% Bitcoin BTC Price $110,927.03 1.80% /24h Volume in 24h $60.34B Price 7d Even with controversy surrounding its tokenomics and transparency, COAI’s rebound shows traders are still hunting for the next crypto to explode — and for now, the AI sector remains the only bright spot amid the ongoing crypto crash. EXPLORE: Binance $400M Compensation Fund Launched After Flash Crash – New Crypto to Buy To Make It Back? 46 minutes ago According to Financial Times: Trump Family Earns Over $1B in Crypto Ventures, Memecoin Boom, DeFi and Stablecoin Plays By Fatima A Financial Times investigation reveals U.S. President Donald Trump and his family raked in more than $1 billion in pre-tax profits over the past year from crypto-related ventures spanning trading cards, meme coins, DeFi, tokens, and stablecoins. Their crypto empire included the TRUMP and MELANIA coins, which together generated about $427 million in sales and transaction fees. In parallel, the World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token sales brought in around $550 million. Their USD1 stablecoin also recorded a massive $2.71 billion in sales during this period. The post [LIVE] Crypto News Today, October 16 – Crypto Crash Continues as Bitcoin Stuck Below $112K, XRP Price at $2.42; Coinbase Lists BNB: What’s the Next Crypto To Explode? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s encryption and send the digital asset to zero far sooner than many people believe, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. Speaking at TOKEN2049 earlier this month, Edwards shocked crypto enthusiasts by stating that he believes Bitcoin is under a huge threat from quantum computing, and that developers have a limited amount of time to address quantum concerns. Bitcoin .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path:nth-of-type(2) { stroke: #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive { color: #008868 !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.positive { border: 1px solid #008868; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive::before { border-bottom: 4px solid #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-price-holder .cwp-coin-trend-holder .cwp-trend { background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.negative svg path:nth-of-type(2) { stroke: #A90C0C !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.negative { border: 1px solid #A90C0C; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.negative { color: #A90C0C !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.negative::before { border-top: 4px solid #A90C0C !important; } Bitcoin BTC $110,927.03 1.80% Bitcoin BTC Price $110,927.03 1.80% /24h Volume in 24h $60.34B Price 7d QRL crypto is a token specifically designed to be secure against attacks from powerful quantum computers. It utilizes post-quantum cryptography, particularly the XMSS (eXtended Merkle Signature Scheme) algorithm, which is resistant to potential quantum computing threats. If the Bitcoin community fails to take necessary steps to protect the leading digital asset from the threat of quantum computing, the likes of QRL could become the face of crypto. With the potential for billions of dollars worth of BTC to be drained from wallets once quantum computing technology is fully operational, QRL crypto is taking steps now to secure itself against the same threat, which could make it one of the best investment choices right now. (SOURCE: MarketCapOf.com) Investors seem to agree as QRL is up +180% in the past month, barely flinching at the flash crash that wiped out nearly $20Bn from the market less than a week ago. It is currently trading for around $2.1, with a market cap of just $170M and all tokens in circulation. If QRL were to flip BTC due to its quantum computing-resistant technology, it would offer a 13,339x gain to overtake Bitcoin at its current market cap valuation of $2.2T. While this seems like a wild fantasy right now, quantum computing is coming quicker than many are anticipating, and if measures are not taken to secure Bitcoin soon, it could spell disaster for the leading digital asset and anyone not named Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) EXPLORE: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Experts Make Shocking Claim That Quantum Computing Can Destroy Bitcoin in 2 Years appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Upbeat corporate earnings from U.S. banks and Washington's attempts to de-escalate the trade conflict with China allowed the S&P 500 to extend its rally. The broad market index has recovered most of the losses suffered during the sell-off triggered by the White House's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The current pullback looks more like a rational recalibration than a reversal. The six largest U.S. banks earned $41 billion in profit in the third quarter, 19% more than during the same period in 2024. Shares of Morgan Stanley and Bank of America jumped by 4.4% and 4.7%, respectively. A positive signal for the S&P 500 came from banking executives' statements about a still-healthy economy, noting that American consumers continue to spend despite the uncertainty associated with White House policy. S&P 500 Dynamics and VIX Volatility Curve Uncertainty is certainly high. Investors had assumed trade conflicts were behind them. However, another outburst from Donald Trump brought a threat to increase tariffs on China by 100% starting in November. This has led to an inversion of the VIX curve. Rising demand for short-term derivatives could indicate that heightened volatility will persist in the near future. At the same time, the fact that the S&P 500 remains close to its record highs is evidence that the escalation of the U.S.–China trade conflict is not yet signaling alarm. It suggests that most of the speculative excess has been flushed out of the market. The S&P 500 has shed its ballast and is now in a position to continue its rally—an outcome the White House continues to promote. According to Scott Bessent, if Beijing refrains from tightening export controls on rare-earth minerals, the United States may extend current low tariff levels for more than 90 days. November will mark the time to revisit previously imposed tariffs, and such rhetoric from the White House signals its willingness to follow a path of trade de-escalation. Another supportive factor for the S&P 500 is the appointment of Stephen Miran, who was named to the FOMC by the president and has retained his role within the U.S. administration. Miran stated that the Washington–Beijing trade war increases the risk of a cooling U.S. economy, which calls for immediate action by the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate. In summary, strong earnings from U.S. banks, the White House's indications of de-escalating the trade conflict with China, and expectations for continued monetary expansion from the Fed are all bolstering the stock market. However, the volatility curve inversion amplifies the risks of near-term consolidation for the broad market index. Technically, the daily chart shows that S&P 500 bulls are attempting to restore the upward trend. However, the market remains in a dead zone—a cluster of moving averages and fair value. Buy positions will become relevant from 6725, but failure to hold above this level will raise the risk of consolidation and provide an opportunity to sell. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

After a turbulent few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its downtrend, currently retracing toward $111,000. This marks a 12% decline from its recent peak of $126,000, which raises concerns among market experts who suggest that the bull run may be closer to its end than many investors believe. End Of Bitcoin Bull Cycle Within Nine Days? On October 14, market analyst CryptoBirb, took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to assert that the bullish cycle is nearing its conclusion, stating that it may end within the next nine days. He referenced the Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, which suggests that Bitcoin is 99.3% through its current cycle, having lasted 1,058 days. According to CryptoBirb, this final stage is characterized by a “textbook shakeout of weak hands,” a common pattern observed before market peaks. CryptoBirb emphasized that October 24 serves as a critical target date, just nine days away, and labeled the recent crash as “right on schedule.” He further explained that the market is deep within the peak zone, with 543 days elapsing since the last Bitcoin Halving, exceeding the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days. The sentiment in the market also appears to have shifted dramatically, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting from 71 to 38, indicating a reset from fear to euphoria. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also dropped from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional washout may create an ideal launchpad for a final euphoric surge. However, technical indicators show mixed signals: while the Average True Range (ATR) has expanded to 4,040, indicating higher volatility, the RSI’s position at 47 suggests a reset momentum. What On-Chain Metrics Suggest Institutional investors have also begun to shift their strategies, as evidenced by recent Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows, which reversed from $627 million in inflows to $4.5 million in outflows. Ethereum ETF outflows reached $174.9 million, indicating that smart money is taking profits before retail investors potentially fear of missing out (FOMO) in. CryptoBirb asserts that this behavior aligns with a classic distribution-to-accumulation transition. On-chain metrics reflect a cooling market, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropping to 0.522 from 0.556, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) declining to 2.15 from 2.45. These profit-taking actions may be creating the necessary space for a final euphoric push. When examining October’s performance, Bitcoin is down 2.09% month-to-date, contrasting sharply with its historical average of a 19.78% increase. This underperformance could actually be a bullish sign, suggesting that a significant move may still be on the horizon in the final weeks of the month. In summary, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. It has already spent 25 days in the peak zone and experienced a reset in sentiment and institutional distribution, as well as weak performance in October. However, if the analyst’s thesis proves right, this blending could turn into a perfect storm for a final surge before entering a new crypto winter. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Japanese YenThe test of the 151.52 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. A similar situation unfolded in reverse later in the day near the 151.30 level. As a result, I did not execute any trades. The dollar continues to lose ground against the yen, and there appear to be few, if any, drivers that could reverse this negative trend in the near future. The lack of meaningful macroeconomic data capable of supporting the U.S. currency, combined with dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, continues to put pressure on the dollar. Today, Japan released weak data showing a decline in machinery and equipment orders, as well as a fall in the services PMI. However, the yen barely reacted, highlighting the dollar's current weakness in this pair. This paradox underscores that, at the moment, the dominant driver of USD/JPY is not the state of the Japanese economy, but rather the vulnerability of the U.S. dollar. Typically, weak macroeconomic figures from Japan would lead to yen depreciation, but in this case, that effect is being offset by dollar weakness driven by expectations of further easing in Fed monetary policy. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the execution of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy ScenariosScenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry level near 151.23 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 151.79 (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 151.79 area, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 pips downward. Buying the pair is best done following corrections and significant dips. Note: Before entering a buy trade, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 150.92 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and likely trigger an upward reversal. A move up toward the opposite levels of 151.23 and 151.79 can be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price breaks below 150.92 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be the 150.46 level, where I intend to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound upward from that level. It's best to sell from as high a level as possible. Note: Before entering a sell trade, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 151.23 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 150.92 and 150.46 can be expected. Chart Indicators ExplanationThe thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument. The thick green line indicates the anticipated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line marks the entry price for selling the trading instrument. The thick red line indicates the expected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually secured, as a further decline below this level is unlikely. The MACD indicator should be used when entering trades by focusing on overbought and oversold zones. Note: Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your deposit, especially if you don't apply money management and operate with large volumes. And remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan—like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the British PoundThe test of the 1.3342 price level occurred while the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. A second test of this price coincided with the MACD entering the oversold zone, which led to the realization of Buy Scenario No. 2. As a result, the pair rose by more than 50 pips. The U.S. dollar continues to steadily lose ground against the British pound, and it seems unlikely that any events in the near future could reverse this trend. The lack of key macroeconomic data, due to the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S., has created an informational vacuum and increased uncertainty in the market. Combined with the decidedly dovish tone of Federal Reserve officials signaling their intention to continue cutting interest rates, this situation creates a highly unfavorable backdrop for the American currency. This morning, key factors driving market activity will be the release of data on the UK's GDP, industrial production dynamics, and trade balance. These economic indicators will have a noticeable impact on the pound and the broader financial market outlook. Traders and investors will closely examine the reports to evaluate the current state of the British economy and to forecast the Bank of England's next moves. An increase in GDP indicates economic growth and may support the pound's strength. Conversely, a decline in GDP may suggest a slowdown in the economic recovery, placing pressure on the British currency. Market reactions will primarily hinge on the difference between the actual numbers and analysts' expectations, as traders assess the element of surprise and its potential effect on exchange rates. Industrial production dynamics reflect the health of the UK's industrial sector. Expanded output is a sign of a strong economy capable of producing goods and services. A contraction, however, may point to problems in the production sector and broader economic instability. Trade balance data will likely have a limited impact on the market. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the realization of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy ScenariosScenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3431 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3489 (thick green line on the chart). Around 1.3489, I intend to exit the long position and open a sell position in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 pips downward from that level. Bullish expectations for the pound are valid only if strong economic data is released. Note: Before entering the market, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3408 price level, provided the MACD indicator is located in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and likely trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the 1.3431 and 1.3489 levels can be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3408 (red line on the chart), which may result in a swift decline. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3371, where I intend to exit short positions and open new longs in the opposite direction, expecting a retracement of 20–25 pips upward from that level. Pound sellers will likely act cautiously. Note: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3431 price level, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would cap the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop toward the 1.3408 and 1.3371 levels can be expected. Chart Indicators ExplanationThe thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument. The thick green line indicates the anticipated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line marks the entry price for selling the trading instrument. The thick red line indicates the expected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually secured, as a further decline below this level is unlikely. The MACD indicator should be used when entering trades by focusing on overbought and oversold zones. Note: Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your deposit, especially if you don't apply money management and operate with large volumes. And remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan—like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Euro Trading TipsThe test of the 1.1615 price level occurred while the MACD indicator had already moved significantly lower from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The euro then rose, but at the moment the price reached 1.1641, MACD had also climbed well above the zero mark. Therefore, I opted not to buy and instead waited for the realization of Sell Scenario No. 2, which helped to extract about 10 pips of profit from the market. Hints from Federal Reserve officials about the need to ease interest rates triggered a wave of dollar selling, strengthening the euro's position. Market participants interpreted these signals as a sign of a softer monetary policy expected in the near future, which traditionally hurts the value of the U.S. currency. Today will be marked by the release of several important economic reports and statements, which will undoubtedly create fluctuations in the currency markets. In the first half of the day, the eurozone trade balance and Italy's consumer price index will be published. Later, during the U.S. session, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled. The eurozone trade balance report will help assess the competitiveness of European companies and the overall health of the region's economy. A trade surplus indicates resilience in an economy that can produce goods and services in demand on the global market. Conversely, a deficit may point to insufficient domestic demand and the need to support export sectors. Italy's consumer price index is a key inflation indicator for the eurozone's third-largest economy. An increase in the index may lead the ECB to adopt a more cautious stance on rates, whereas a decrease could allow for more economic stimulus. Christine Lagarde's speech will be the central event of the day. Investors will closely analyze her remarks, looking for clues about the central bank's future policies. She is expected to touch on inflation trends, economic forecasts, and possible measures to support the eurozone economy. Her tone may have a noticeable impact on the euro's value and market sentiment in general. In terms of intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy ScenariosScenario No. 1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches the area around 1.1669 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1705. At the 1.1705 level, I intend to exit the market and sell immediately on the rebound, expecting a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Euro growth should only be anticipated if the economic data is favorable. Note: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1653 price level, provided that the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the 1.1669 and 1.1705 levels can be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1653 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1623, where I intend to exit the trade and buy back immediately on the rebound, aiming for a reverse move of 20–25 pips. Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Note: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1669 level, provided that the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop to the 1.1653 and 1.1623 levels is expected. Chart Indicators ExplanationThe thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument. The thick green line indicates the anticipated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line marks the entry price for selling the trading instrument. The thick red line indicates the expected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually secured, as a further decline below this level is unlikely. The MACD indicator should be used when entering trades by focusing on overbought and oversold zones. Note: Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your deposit, especially if you don't apply money management and operate with large volumes. And remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan—like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin remains in the $110,000–$111,000 range—an area that is technically very significant. A breakout below this level could trigger a more active sell-off of the cryptocurrency down toward $106,000, bringing it dangerously close to the $100,000 range. A test of that range would represent a critical moment for the entire cryptocurrency market. Ethereum has also declined sharply, barely holding above the $4,000 level. A move below this mark could result in a significantly more aggressive sell-off. While traders continue to battle for direction, news has emerged that the Bank of England plans to introduce temporary limits on the size of holdings and transactions in stablecoins. The proposed individual cap is expected to fall within the range of 10,000 to 20,000 British pounds. According to government officials, these measures are not intended to block the use of stablecoins but rather to ensure their controlled integration into the country's financial system. In the central bank's view, this step is necessary to protect consumers and ensure financial stability in the context of a rapidly evolving crypto market. These restrictions are likely to remain in place until comprehensive legislation covering digital assets is developed in the United Kingdom. The BoE's decision drew a mixed response from the crypto community. Supporters of regulation welcomed the initiative as a necessary move toward the legitimization of stablecoins and reducing investor risks. On the other hand, critics voiced concern that such limitations could stifle innovation and deter users from the crypto market. Regardless of differing opinions, the BoE's actions reflect the growing concern among global regulators about the potential risks posed by cryptocurrencies and their push to implement stricter rules to protect consumers and maintain financial stability. Regarding intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on any major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, relying on the expectation of a sustained medium-term bull market that remains intact. In terms of short-term trading, the strategies and conditions are outlined below. BitcoinBuy ScenarioScenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $111,500, targeting a rise to $113,100. Around $113,100, I will exit the long position and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, I will ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory. Scenario 2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary of $110,600 if there is no market reaction confirming a downward breakout, aiming for a return to $111,500 and $113,100. Sell ScenarioScenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $110,600, targeting a drop to $108,900. Around $108,900, I will exit the position and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, I will ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory. Scenario 2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary of $111,500 if there is no market reaction confirming an upward breakout, aiming for a return to $110,600 and $108,900. EthereumBuy ScenarioScenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $4,037, targeting a rise to $4,129. Around $4,129, I will exit the long position and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, I will ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory. Scenario 2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary of $3,972 if there is no market reaction confirming a downward breakout, aiming for a return to $4,037 and $4,129. Sell ScenarioScenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $3,972, targeting a drop to $3,874. Around $3,874, I will exit the position and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, I will ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory. Scenario 2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary of $4,037 if there is no market reaction confirming an upward breakout, aiming for a return to $3,972 and $3,874. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. dollar continued to decline actively against the euro, the pound, and other assets. Statements from Federal Reserve representatives advocating for interest rate cuts led to a dollar sell-off. Traders interpreted these signals as confirmation of a likely shift toward more accommodative monetary policy in the near future, which traditionally puts pressure on the American currency. The euro, the pound, and other assets gained support as rate cuts in the U.S. reduced the attractiveness of American assets. However, it is worth noting that long-term prospects remain uncertain. Economic growth in Europe and the United Kingdom still lags behind that of the United States, and political instability in some eurozone countries adds further risk. Today's agenda includes eurozone trade balance data, Italy's consumer price index, and later in the day, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. These events will undoubtedly impact the dynamics of currency markets, especially amid current economic uncertainty. A positive trade balance indicates that exports exceed imports, signaling a healthy economy that produces goods and services in global demand. A negative balance may point to weak domestic demand and a need for stimulus in export sectors. The Italian CPI serves as a key inflation indicator for the euro area's third-largest economy. Lagarde's speech will be the focal event of the day. Investors will closely watch her tone for hints about future ECB policy. Currently, it seems unlikely that monetary policy will be changed, so attention will be focused more on inflation and the region's economic outlook. In the first half of the day, attention will center on UK GDP change, industrial production change, and the goods trade balance. GDP growth is the most critical indicator of a nation's economic health. Positive figures suggest economic expansion and can lead to the pound strengthening. Rising industrial production indicates a healthy economy capable of producing goods and services, while a decline may signal manufacturing difficulties and broader economic weakness. A positive trade balance in goods can also support the pound during this week's ongoing bullish trend. If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy is the preferred approach. Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading):For the EUR/USD pairBuying on a breakout above 1.1675 may lead to a rise in the euro toward the 1.1715 and 1.1755 areas. Selling on a breakout below 1.1645 may lead to a fall in the euro toward the 1.1615 and 1.1585 areas. For the GBP/USD pairBuying on a breakout above 1.3426 may lead to a rise in the pound toward the 1.3461 and 1.3488 areas. Selling on a breakout below 1.3400 may lead to a fall in the pound toward the 1.3371 and 1.3336 areas. For the USD/JPY pairBuying on a breakout above 151.35 may lead to a rise in the dollar toward the 151.75 and 152.10 areas. Selling on a breakout below 151.00 may trigger dollar selling toward the 150.65 and 150.35 areas. Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversion to the Mean): For the EUR/USD pairLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1678, followed by a return below this level. Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1650, followed by a return above this level. For the GBP/USD pairLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3446, followed by a return below this level. Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3402, followed by a return above this level. For the AUD/USD pairLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6508, followed by a return below this level. Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6480, followed by a return above this level. For the USD/CAD pairLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.4044, followed by a return below this level. Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.4017, followed by a return above this level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

According to market charts and comments from well-known traders, XRP’s price action is drawing fresh attention as some investors say it could challenge Ethereum’s spot in the rankings. A decade-long chart was shared that traces moves from 2013 through 2025, and one commentator went as far as to call the next leg a potential “Ethereum killer.” That claim has reignited debate across crypto circles. Technical Patterns Signal Repeats Crypto analyst Peter Brandt pointed to a repeating set of shapes on XRP’s chart — symmetrical triangles and long consolidations that ended in sharp rallies. The timeline covers a decade and breaks down into three phases. The first run, from 2013 to 2017, ended with an outsized surge that exceeded 70,000%. The second phase, roughly 2018 to 2024, produced a descending formation and then a dramatic breakout near the end of 2024, when price gains were about 600%. Now, price is being held inside a narrow range after a recent rejection at $3.66, with traders watching a band roughly between $2.60 and $2.80 for signs of a move. Community Voice Meets Hard Math Another crypto expert, Alex Cobb, comments that the next leg could topple Ethereum captured social media attention. “The next leg up on XRP will be the Ethereum killer,” he said. But market data shows a big gap. XRP’s market cap sits near $147 billion while Ethereum’s is about $480 billion. At a current XRP price of $2.49, a rise of over 230% would be needed for XRP to cross $8 and overtake Ethereum, assuming ETH stays flat. That path is made steeper if Ether rallies again; in August it hit an all-time high of $4,950 after climbing 239% from April lows of $1,385. Market Cap Gap Remains Large History gives headlines, yet it is not proof that patterns will repeat. XRP did briefly become the second-largest cryptocurrency in 2018, which feeds today’s hopes. Still, some technical analysts have publicly softened earlier bullish calls, urging caution and recommending investors hold both tokens rather than expect a flip. Market behavior is shaped by many moving parts — money flows, macro events, and network updates — none of which are guaranteed to follow past scripts. Sentiment And Structure Social momentum can push price quickly, and chart breaks can trigger big moves when liquidity is thin. At the same time, market caps are driven by supply and demand across many exchanges and large holders. A pattern that looks clean on a long-term chart may be paused by regulatory headlines, changing investor appetite, or simply by a stronger rally in the rival asset. Featured image from PBR Australia, chart from TradingView

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, which began Tuesday evening when Donald Trump issued new threats toward China and Jerome Powell subtly hinted at a possible easing of monetary policy at the end of October. In reality, Powell made no such hints, but the market likely interpreted his statements that way. It is worth remembering that faith and expectations often influence market participants' trading decisions. Powell may state there is no expected monetary policy easing in the near future, yet the market may choose not to believe him. Thus, traders most likely read between the lines and found the desired phrase about lowering the key interest rate. However, this state of affairs provided only a short-lived boost for the British currency. At a certain point, the pound once again encountered resistance in the 1.3369–1.3377 range on the hourly timeframe and in the moving average line on the 4-hour timeframe. We have repeatedly stated that we consider the recent downward movement illogical, as the dollar had more reason to fall again than the pound to decline. However, it should again be noted that on the daily timeframe, we are most likely witnessing a flat trend. In a flat market, movements in either direction do not need reasons or justification. Therefore, we believe that the fundamental backdrop remains secondary for traders at the moment. If that were not the case, the dollar would have already plunged into a new abyss at lightning speed. It is important to recall that the mere offsetting of the interest rate differential—which is bound to occur in the coming years between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve—is by itself sufficient grounds for a continued decline of the dollar. The ongoing trade war, which grows month after month with new tariffs, is another serious factor contributing to the dollar's weakness. Recently, Trump has stopped criticizing the Fed in every speech, but that's only because the next meeting is scheduled for the end of the month. There's little doubt that by the 25th, Trump will resume verbal pressure on the Fed. This implies that the global fundamental background for the U.S. dollar has not changed in recent months. We haven't seen a new decline in the dollar during this period because the currency market doesn't work that way. Market participants cannot sell the dollar every day for nine consecutive months. Pauses, corrections, pullbacks, time for analysis, and time for the formation of new large positions by market makers are all necessary. Therefore, from our perspective, this current pause is nothing more than the calm before the storm—or rather, the new trend. More precisely, the continuation of the old trend, because believing in medium-term dollar growth under current conditions is like believing in the existence of extraterrestrial life. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 99 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this is considered "average." On Thursday, October 16, we expect movement within the range limited by the levels of 1.3288 and 1.3486. The long-term linear regression channel is directed upward, indicating a clear uptrend. The CCI indicator has once again (for the third time) entered the oversold area, which again signals a possible renewal of the upward trend. Nearest Support Levels:S1: 1.3367S2: 1.3306S3: 1.3245Nearest Resistance Levels:R1: 1.3428R2: 1.3489R3: 1.3550Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD currency pair is undergoing a correction, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect growth from the U.S. currency. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain far more relevant as long as the price is above the moving average. A positioning below the moving average line allows for consideration of minor short positions with targets at 1.3288 and 1.3245 on technical grounds. From time to time, the U.S. dollar shows corrections (as it is now), but for a trend-strengthening move, it requires clear signs of the trade war ending or other global, positive factors. Chart Annotations:Linear regression channels help define the direction and strength of the trend. If both channels slope in the same direction, the trend is confirmed.The smoothed 20-period moving average provides insight into direction and trend-following conditions.Murray levels act as reference zones for potential turning points or targets during price movement or corrections.Volatility bands (red lines) define the probable price range for the upcoming session based on recent volatility.CCI (Commodity Channel Index): readings below -250 or above +250 indicate oversold or overbought conditions, often signaling a reversal in trend direction.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair began a new upward attempt on Tuesday and continued it with moderate success on Wednesday. It's difficult to definitively state whether Jerome Powell's remarks or Donald Trump's latest escalation toward China were the precise catalysts for the dollar's decline—but it's likely. Over recent weeks, the market has been deliberately ignoring virtually all fundamental and macroeconomic pressure weighing on the dollar. We've repeatedly highlighted how illogical the greenback's resilience has been, so it's not guaranteed that the market has suddenly started reacting to bearish U.S. data. This shift actually began back in the first week of October, when most U.S. macro reports disappointed. Business activity indices showed notable weakness, and the lone labor market report from ADP even posted a negative figure. Thus, already at the start of the month, the U.S. dollar was ripe for a sharp decline. Subsequently, Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff hike on Chinese goods, and the Federal Reserve hinted—several times—that it was ready to continue easing monetary policy. This last point, however, deserves closer examination. Jerome Powell, like many of his colleagues, has spoken frequently in recent weeks. His rhetoric hasn't changed. The Fed Chair consistently emphasizes that no one is backing away from rate cuts, but decisions will be made based on macroeconomic data. The issue is: with the U.S. government "shutdown" still ongoing, how is that statement to be interpreted? For example, would the Fed vote to ease policy by October 29, even if the shutdown prevents the release of updated inflation, employment, and labor market data? Powell's colleagues have been more transparent. Several FOMC members believe the key rate should be lowered further due to persistent labor market weakness. It's clear that lowering the rate once is insufficient to stimulate hiring or halt job market deterioration. Therefore, a rate cut by the end of October seems all but logical. That said, no one knows when the shutdown will end. If resolution comes within the next week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics may be able to release the missing reports for September in time for the Fed to make an informed decision—rather than relying on speculation. Therefore, we stand by Powell's core message: monetary policy easing is neither guaranteed nor ruled out. The eventual course depends entirely on economic realities. Inflation, for example, remains a top priority for the Fed. If it surges at an unsustainable rate, rate cuts will be halted swiftly—unless Donald Trump gains control over at least half the FOMC voting members. In our view, uncertainty remains alarmingly high. The average volatility for EUR/USD over the past five trading days, as of October 16, is 75 pips, classified as "average." For Thursday, we expect the pair to remain within a 1.1565–1.1715 range. The long-term linear regression channel is sloping upward, confirming that the long-term trend remains bullish. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, which may spark a fresh upward move. Nearest Support Levels:S1: 1.1597S2: 1.1536S3: 1.1414Nearest Resistance Levels:R1: 1.1658R2: 1.1719R3: 1.1780Trading Recommendations: EUR/USD continues to correct, but the upward trend remains intact across all higher timeframes. The U.S. dollar continues to experience pressure from the policies of Donald Trump, who shows no signs of stepping back from trade escalation. Recent dollar strength has appeared questionable, and the ongoing flat structure on the daily chart helps explain that lack of momentum. If the price moves below the moving average, intraday short positions become viable, targeting 1.1565 and 1.1536 as purely technical objectives. If the price hovers above the moving average line, long positions remain favored, with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902, continuing the long-term trend. Chart Annotations:Linear regression channels help define the direction and strength of the trend. If both channels slope in the same direction, the trend is confirmed.The smoothed 20-period moving average provides insight into direction and trend-following conditions.Murray levels act as reference zones for potential turning points or targets during price movement or corrections.Volatility bands (red lines) define the probable price range for the upcoming session based on recent volatility.CCI (Commodity Channel Index): readings below -250 or above +250 indicate oversold or overbought conditions, often signaling a reversal in trend direction.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair spent most of the day in low-volatility consolidation but eventually initiated an entirely logical upward movement by evening. As previously stated, the current fundamental and macroeconomic background does not favor the U.S. dollar, and the recent period of dollar strength has appeared illogical. Both major currency pairs recently broke above their trendlines, shifting short-term sentiment to bullish. On Wednesday, neither the UK nor the U.S. released any important or even notable economic events, making the pound's rise even more telling. The fact that the market began buying GBP/USD without any accompanying news suggests that conditions are ripening for a new leg of the 2025 uptrend. From a technical perspective, the price now needs to confidently break above the Senkou Span B line, which should not pose major difficulty. From there, the British pound could set a course toward yearly and multi-year highs—and this could happen even without fresh dollar-negative news, given the abundant factors already weighing on USD. On the 5-minute chart, several valid trade signals formed throughout the day. During the European session, the price bounced off the 1.3369–1.3377 zone and reached the Kijun-sen line during the U.S. session. That bounce, with minimal slippage, provided a long entry opportunity. Just one hour later, the pair broke through the 1.3369–1.3377 zone. Those long positions could have been closed manually that evening in profit, or kept open with a Stop Loss moved to breakeven. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report Commitments of Traders (COT) reports on the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has fluctuated frequently in recent years. The red and blue lines—representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders—often cross each other and currently hover close to the zero line, indicating nearly balanced long and short positioning. The U.S. dollar is continuing to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies. Consequently, market makers' interest in the pound is less relevant at the moment. The trade war is likely to persist in one form or another for a long time. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates over the next year. Thus, demand for the dollar is fundamentally declining. According to the latest COT report, non-commercial traders opened 3,700 long positions and closed 900 shorts, increasing their net position by 4,600 contracts. The British pound has risen strongly in 2025, mainly due to the impact of Trump's policy. Once that influence is removed, the dollar may rebound—but when that will happen remains unknown. Regardless of whether pound net positioning rises or falls, dollar positioning is weakening—and at a quicker pace. GBP/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has completed its previous downtrend and initiated a fresh rally. The U.S. dollar still lacks any fundamental support for a sustained strengthening, which is why we expect the pair to retest the highs of 2025 eventually. Admittedly, the daily chart has remained rangebound in recent months, but that could change quickly. For now, the ongoing escalation of Trump's trade conflict, combined with a dovish Federal Reserve, forms a "toxic cocktail" for the dollar. On October 16, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B (1.3402) and Kijun-sen (1.3321) lines can also be sources of signals. Place a Stop Loss at breakeven after a 20-pip favorable price move. Note that Ichimoku lines may shift throughout the day. In the UK, GDP and industrial production data for August will be published today, though they are unlikely to carry major market weight. Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year GDP data are typically more relevant. Moreover, the market has not been reacting strongly to production figures recently. Trading Recommendations: Today, traders can look to trade within the following zones: 1.3369–1.33771.3420Senkou Span B lineThere are numerous key levels to work with, while high-impact events remain limited. However, the British pound has begun a new upward move, and in the short term, we expect this rally to continue. Chart Explanations:Thick red lines – key support/resistance levels; potential price targets, not trade signals by themselvesKijun-sen and Senkou Span B – Ichimoku lines transferred from the 4-hour to the 1-hour chart; considered strong technical markersThin red lines – local highs/lows that previously caused reversals; can be used for entry/exit pointsYellow lines – trendlines, channels, and other technical formationsIndicator 1 on COT charts – size of the net position for trader categoriesThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair once again traded in a very lackluster fashion. The only notable event of the day was the Eurozone industrial production report, which—although still weak—came in slightly better than the most pessimistic market forecasts. As a result, the euro experienced a modest uptick. However, overall, we saw yet another day of extremely low volatility. In recent sessions, price action resembles a flat movement on both intraday and daily timeframes. It almost feels as though U.S. traders, along with government institutions shut down by the ongoing budget deadlock, have simply gone on vacation. Technically, the most recent downtrend has been invalidated, as the trendline has been broken. Even in the short term, EUR/USD continues to show technical potential for further gains. The Kijun-sen line has also been breached, suggesting a move toward the Senkou Span B line. At present, however, the Senkou Span B is advancing rapidly and may soon meet the price. On the 5-minute chart, two signals were generated on Wednesday. The first came overnight with a breakout above the 1.1604–1.1615 range, and the second came during the U.S. trading session with a bounce from that same zone. In both cases, the upward movement was modest—only 10 to 20 pips—making it difficult to extract meaningful profits in such low-volatility conditions. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report The latest COT report is dated September 23. As shown in the accompanying illustration, non-commercial traders (major market participants) have maintained a net long position in the euro for some time. Bears barely gained control at the end of 2024, only to lose it quickly. Since Donald Trump returned to the presidency, only the U.S. dollar has declined in value. Although we can't say with certainty that the dollar's drop will continue, current global developments suggest this is the likely scenario. There are still very few fundamental reasons to support the U.S. currency, while many downside factors remain. While the long-term downtrend in EUR/USD is not fully broken, the past 17 years of historical movement matter less now. Once Trump ends his trade wars—if he ever does—the dollar might recover. But recent events suggest the conflict will persist. Additionally, there's the rising risk of the Federal Reserve losing its independence, which could further undermine dollar strength. During the latest reporting week, non-commercial long positions decreased by 800 contracts, while shorts increased by 2,600. As a result, the net position declined by 3,400 contracts. EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair likely completed its most recent downward correction last week. The trendline has been breached, the Kijun-sen line has been overcome, and the 1.1604–1.1615 zone has been cleared. As such, there is room for growth toward the Senkou Span B line. We believe the euro is long overdue for a recovery, though the market has been reluctant to price it in—despite ample justification. On October 16, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1661) and Kijun-sen (1.1595) lines. Keep in mind that Ichimoku lines can shift during the day, so traders should adjust accordingly when identifying valid signals. Remember to use a breakeven Stop Loss once the price moves 15 pips in your favor to safeguard against potential losses in case of false breakouts. On Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak—her tenth appearance in just over two weeks. Her message remains consistent: the ECB has no plans to change its policy stance in the near future. Macroeconomic calendars in the U.S. are empty for the day. Trading Recommendations: On Thursday, traders can continue working with the 1.1604–1.1615 zone. A bounce from this area can justify long entries targeting 1.1657–1.1666A break below this zone and the Kijun-sen line would validate short positions targeting 1.1534Chart Explanations: Thick red lines – key support/resistance levels; potential price targets, not trade signals by themselvesKijun-sen and Senkou Span B – Ichimoku lines transferred from the 4-hour to the 1-hour chart; considered strong technical markersThin red lines – local highs/lows that previously caused reversals; can be used for entry/exit pointsYellow lines – trendlines, channels, and other technical formationsIndicator 1 on COT charts – size of the net position for trader categoriesThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Macroeconomic Report Review: There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. The most noteworthy will come from the United Kingdom, although even these are not expected to have a major impact. In roughly an hour, the UK will release data on industrial production and gross domestic product. However, the GDP figure will be monthly rather than quarterly. Markets tend to place more weight on quarterly and annual data. As for industrial production, it is not seen as a top-tier indicator among traders. Nevertheless, both reports could trigger a market reaction simply because no other significant data is scheduled for the day. In the Eurozone and the United States, no important macroeconomic reports are expected. Fundamental Event Review: A large number of fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday, but few of them are likely to attract meaningful attention from market participants. In Europe, speeches are expected from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane. In the U.S., several FOMC members will speak, including Thomas Barkin, Michael Barr, Steven Mirran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, among others. As noted in earlier reviews, both Lagarde and Powell have spoken frequently in recent weeks. As a result, the market has a relatively clear understanding of what to expect from both central banks in the near term. The ECB has no plans to lower rates, as there is presently no reason to do so, while the Fed is expected to continue easing monetary policy due to persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market. General Conclusions: During the second-to-last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue their upward movements, having broken above trendlines on their respective charts. The euro has established a favorable trading zone at 1.1655–1.1666, while the British pound has a similar range at 1.3413–1.3421. From these areas, both long and short positions can be considered depending on how the price behaves near these levels. Core Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is judged by the time required for signal formation (bounce or breakout). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.If two or more false trades were opened at a level, any subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In flat markets, currency pairs may produce numerous false signals or none at all. It's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.Trades should be opened during the European session through the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be manually closed afterward.On the hourly chart, MACD signals should only be used when good volatility and a clear trend are confirmed with a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (within 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support/resistance zone.After 15-20 pips of movement in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss at breakeven.Chart Annotations:Support/resistance levels: key targets for opening buy/sell trades. Take Profit levels can also be set near them.Red lines: trendlines or channels indicating the current trend and preferred trade direction.MACD (14,22,3): histogram and signal line, used as an auxiliary signal generator.Important Note: Key speeches and economic reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly affect currency pair movements. During such events, trade with extreme caution or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the prior trend. Reminder for Beginners: No trade is guaranteed to be profitable. The key to long-term success in forex trading is to develop a clear strategy and apply sound money management principles. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review for Wednesday:1-Hour GBP/USD Chart The GBP/USD pair rose confidently throughout Wednesday, which is a very positive signal. In recent weeks, we have repeatedly pointed to the illogical nature of the pair's decline, so this latest rise appears to be a "debt repaid" to the British currency. While there have indeed been negative headlines for the pound in recent weeks, they pale in comparison to the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop weighing on the U.S. dollar. Yesterday, there were no significant events or economic releases in either the UK or the U.S. that could justify a rise in GBP/USD. This move is even more noteworthy, as it strongly suggests that the long-term bullish trend of 2025 is resuming. On the daily timeframe, the price has been consolidating in a range for months. Every flat market eventually ends, and there are still no solid reasons to expect sustained dollar strength in the medium term. 5-Minute GBP/USD Chart On the 5-minute chart, a single valid trade signal was formed on Wednesday, albeit with a minor deviation. During the U.S. trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3329–1.3331 area and then climbed toward 1.3413–1.3421. This provided beginner traders with one potential long trade, which would have resulted in profit, even if closed manually by the end of the session. How to Trade on Thursday: On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has finally begun forming a new upward trend, which could mark the beginning of a new phase in the global bullish movement. As previously mentioned, there are no convincing reasons for a prolonged U.S. dollar rally; thus, the medium-term outlook remains bullish for the pound. Donald Trump's resurgence in tariff-related actions over recent weeks will likely discourage investors from holding the dollar. On Thursday, GBP/USD may attempt to extend its upward movement, as market sentiment has turned bullish. A confirmed breakout above the 1.3413–1.3421 area would allow traders to open long positions targeting 1.3466–1.3475. Conversely, if the price fails to hold above this zone and falls back beneath it, a corrective pullback could begin within the context of the new trend. On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at levels 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. Note that UK GDP and industrial production data will be published on Thursday. These are relatively low-impact releases in the current context, but given the lack of other major drivers, the market may still react moderately to these figures. Core Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is judged by the time required for signal formation (bounce or breakout). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.If two or more false trades were opened at a level, any subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In flat markets, currency pairs may produce numerous false signals or none at all. It's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.Trades should be opened during the European session through the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be manually closed afterward.On the hourly chart, MACD signals should only be used when good volatility and a clear trend are confirmed with a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (within 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support/resistance zone.After 20 pips of movement in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss at breakeven.Chart Annotations:Support/resistance levels: key targets for opening buy/sell trades. Take Profit levels can also be set near them.Red lines: trendlines or channels indicating the current trend and preferred trade direction.MACD (14,22,3): histogram and signal line, used as an auxiliary signal generator.Important Note: Key speeches and economic reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly affect currency pair movements. During such events, trade with extreme caution or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the prior trend. Reminder for Beginners: No trade is guaranteed to be profitable. The key to long-term success in forex trading is to develop a clear strategy and apply sound money management principles. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review for Wednesday: 1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. Among notable events that day were the ongoing deterioration in U.S.–China relations and the Eurozone's industrial production report, which, despite coming in weak, still exceeded expectations—possibly contributing to minor euro strength. Overall, the market finally began buying the euro, which is a positive development. The descending trendline was breached again, suggesting the formation of at least a short-term bullish trend. As mentioned previously, we continue to expect the EUR/USD pair to rise and believe the 2025 uptrend will ultimately resume. Over the past several weeks, the market has ignored numerous bearish signals concerning the U.S. dollar. Now, it's time for them to be priced in. 5-Minute EUR/USD Chart The 5-minute timeframe did not generate any new trading signals on Wednesday. However, a strong buy signal—breaking through the 1.1571–1.1584 zone—was formed Tuesday evening. It was previously suggested to move the Stop Loss to breakeven and keep the trade open. As seen, the target was eventually reached. How to Trade on Thursday: On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair is now showing signs of a reversal to the upside. The descending trendline has been broken once again, and the overall fundamental and macroeconomic outlook remains weak for the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we continue to anticipate a resumption of the 2025 uptrend. On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair may move in either direction, as fundamental and macroeconomic events are limited. However, beginner traders now have a new decision zone—1.1655–1.1666. A consolidation above this area allows for long positions with a target at 1.1745, while a drop below it opens the door for short positions targeting 1.1584. On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. For Thursday, the only event listed on the Eurozone calendar is a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Apart from that, no other significant events are expected. Therefore, volatility may remain low, and the euro could continue rising on technical grounds. Core Rules of the Trading System: Signal strength is judged by the time required for signal formation (bounce or breakout). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.If two or more false trades were opened at a level, any subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In flat markets, currency pairs may produce numerous false signals or none at all. It's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.Trades should be opened during the European session through the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be manually closed afterward.On the hourly chart, MACD signals should only be used when good volatility and a clear trend are confirmed with a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (within 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support/resistance zone.After 15 pips of movement in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss at breakeven.Chart Annotations: Support/resistance levels: key targets for opening buy/sell trades. Take Profit levels can also be set near them.Red lines: trendlines or channels indicating the current trend and preferred trade direction.MACD (14,22,3): histogram and signal line, used as an auxiliary signal generator.Important Note: Key speeches and economic reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly affect currency pair movements. During such events, trade with extreme caution or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the prior trend. Reminder for Beginners: No trade is guaranteed to be profitable. The key to long-term success in forex trading is to develop a clear strategy and apply sound money management principles. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com