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United States Antimony (NYSEA: UAMY) plans to fast-track development of its new Fostung tungsten property in Ontario, it said Friday. US Antimony, based in Dallas, paid $5 million in cash and a 0.5% net smelter return royalty (NSR) split with Transition Metals (TSXV: XTM) and an Ontario numbered company. Additionally, they took on a 1% NSR owed to a previous owner. The Fostung claim block spans 11.14 sq km and lies 70 km west of Sudbury. It contains 12.4 million tonnes of inferred resources, with a grade of 0.213% tungsten trioxide for about 26,000 tonnes of metal. “Our first significant acquisition of a tungsten deposit fits well within our company policy of only seeking mineral deposits that we believe can be quickly and inexpensively developed,” executive vice-president and chief mining engineer Joseph Bardswich said in a news release. “The potential for an early open pit makes Fostung our company’s first tungsten choice.” Tungsten, a dense, hard metal with the highest melting point of any element, and used in everything from cutting tools to aerospace components, hasn’t been produced commercially in Canada or the US since 2016. China holds around 80% of the world’s processing capacity. The company pegged its hopes on helping plug a widening North American tungsten supply gap triggered by February’s Chinese export curbs that sent prices to record highs. But broader critical-minerals names slipped Friday as tungsten prices fell. At $2.32 per share in New York, US Antimony shares were down $0.315 or 12%. It has a market capitalization of $275.7 million. Shanghai Metals Market quotes for ‘#1 Tungsten Bar’ Friday stood at $50.49 per kg, averaging $51.41 per kg over the past 12 months, up from roughly $45 per kg a year ago – a near 14% year-on-year rise. Ore sorting Vendor tests show fluorescent ore sorting can upgrade Fostung material ahead of flotation, the company said. US Antimony plans to fine-crush on site, ship concentrates to local plants and tap existing North American smelters – moves designed to accelerate first production. The company is to start work an updated SK 1300‐compliant resource report this summer to incorporate recent vendor drill results. The Espanola Formation host rocks date to 2.1–2.5 billion years ago and mirror geology at the company’s nearby Iron Mask cobalt project. Fostung lies near paved roads, power lines and several mills in the Sudbury hub. The company has budgeted for building 24 km of new road access and expects to secure permits this year. US Antimony’s Montana smelter 24 km west of Thompson Falls relies on imported antimony. Its Mexican unit runs the Madero smelter, Puerto Blanco mill and Los Juarez antimony deposit.

ioneer (ASX: INR) (NASDAQ: IONR) says it has formally begun its search for a strategic partner in the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine project in Nevada after Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW)(NYSE: SBSW) pulled out earlier this year. The formal strategic partnering process, says the Australian mine developer, follows its recently completed critical work that significantly improved the project’s value but also its projected costs. In February, Sibanye-Stillwater walked away from the Rhyolite Ridge project, citing a “weak pricing environment”. The South African miner, which initially agreed to enter the project in 2021, had planned to invest $490 million for a 50% stake in the project. Since then, ioneer has been looking for a “strong equity partner” to help accelerate the development of Rhyolite Ridge and advance it into production. Unique lithium-boron project In an interview with the Financial Times in April, ioneer’s managing director Bernard Rowe said he is “very confident that in the near term we’ll have that equity in place”, adding that the company wants to sell 40% of the project to one or two investors. The proposed mine, located roughly 362 km north of Las Vegas, hosts one of the largest lithium-boron resources in the United States, and one of only two projects in the country that are currently in the advanced stage. “The Rhyolite Ridge project is unique in the global lithium and boron sectors,” ioneer said in a press release Thursday, citing its capacity to produce both minerals on site, a dual revenue stream (75% lithium and 25% boron), and strong project fundamentals. The company also noted that the project is shovel ready with a Class 2 capital cost estimate and 70% engineering complete. It also has all major permits in place and access to a $996 million loan from the US Department of Energy. The partner search, according to ioneer, is expected to take four months. Goldman Sachs, acting as its financial advisor, will assist the company in the process. Higher value, costs Any new partner in Rhyolite Ridge would likely be involved in a more valuable, but more expensive project, than Sibanye. As it had confirmed to the Financial Times, ioneer is said to be “looking for a higher valuation” than before. Earlier this month, ioneer announced a major upgrade to its 2020 definitive feasibility study by more than quadrupling the Rhyolite Ridge ore reserve, which in turn would support a much longer mine life at 95 years compared to 26 years. Based on this reserve upgrade, the Rhyolite Ridge mine is expected to produce 17,200 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent and 60,400 tonnes of boric acid on an annual basis, including 19,200 tonnes of LCE and 116,400 tonnes of boric acid in the first 25 years. The extended mine life and higher output also lifted the project’s after-tax net present value to $1.5 billion from $1.26 billion. Its costs, however, also rose to $1.67 billion, more than double the $800 million estimated previously. Federico Gay, a lithium analyst at Benchmark, told FT that the Rhyolite Ridge mine would be expensive to build, but would be competitive compared with other lithium mines once operational.

Bitcoin’s price action has been relatively stable in recent days, currently trading just above $107,000 after briefly touching previous highs near $108,000. Amid this backdrop, technical analysis from a popular crypto analyst on the TradingView platform outlined a compelling structural setup forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart. The analysis shows that Bitcoin’s action is in a compression phase that could precede a breakout to $115,000 very soon. Compression Structure Forming Below $108,000 Resistance Bitcoin’s price action is currently following movements in traditional risk assets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both of which have recovered following the recent de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, crypto analyst RLinda shared an outlook on TradingView that highlights a structural setup forming on the D1 chart and predicts a breakout to as high as $115,000 if some resistance levels are cleared. According to RLinda, Bitcoin is in the middle of a compression phase just below the $108,100 resistance level. This follows what the analyst describes as a false breakout above $100,000, which led to a brief distribution and now an active accumulation zone. The daily chart shows price action gradually tightening within the $106,500 to $108,100 range since June 25, the essence of which the analyst called a pause for a breather before a possible continuation of growth. The current setup has already established well-defined boundaries, with support at $106,500 and $108,100 as immediate resistance. A breakout above this immediate resistance would pave the way for the next resistance around $110,400 and bring Bitcoin within striking distance of its all-time high at $111,000. On the other hand, a short-term pullback toward $105,650 is still possible before a new move to the upside. Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch Bitcoin’s price action is really pressing on this resistance level around $108,000 and is building momentum for a breakout once the price level gives way. The key resistance levels to monitor are stacked around $108,100, $108,900, and $110,400. As long as the structure between $106,500 and $108,100 holds, and Bitcoin’s price is sticky near the top of that zone, the breakout scenario becomes increasingly probable. Although there are currently no reasons for a decline on the daily and weekly candlestick charts, the analyst noted that a temporary pullback to $105,650 or even $104,650 cannot be ruled out. However, even such a pullback would likely only serve as a retest but still keep the broader setup intact. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $107,457, up by 0.5% in the past 24 hours. The breakout trigger is still at $108,100. If broken, Bitcoin could easily move to new highs around $115,000. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin prices climbed by 5.07% in the past week to hit a local peak of $108,000 before experiencing a solid rejection. Since then, the leading cryptocurrency has remained in the $106,000 – $107,000 range showing no indications of a breakout in either market direction. Amidst this market consolidation, renowned crypto analyst with X username KillaXBT has highlighted the key liquidation zones in the present Bitcoin market structure that are critical to the next significant price move. Bitcoin: Clustering At $103K–$106K And $108K–$111K – What Could This Mean? In a recent X post , KillaXBT shares that Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal decision zone as liquidation heatmap data from Coinglass reveals notable liquidity clusters forming on both ends of the current price range. The market expert explains that BTC is trapped between long and short liquidation zones in both low and high time frames (L/HTF) signaling a moment of market indecision On the 7-day chart (LTF), KillaXBT states there are accumulations of long positions between $103,400 and $106,000. This data suggests that a move below this price range could trigger cascading stop-losses and force liquidations, sending Bitcoin prices lower in a short-term decline. On the other hand, there are also liquidity clusters in the $108,000–$109,000 region, indicating the presence of potentially significant short positions. A breakout above $109,000 could initiate a sharp short squeeze, perhaps driving prices higher toward the current all-time high in the $111,000 price range. Using the 30-day chart (HTF), KillaXBT provides more information on the Bitcoin market stalemate. The analyst notes that more short-side liquidations are clustered between $108,300 and $109,000 than long-side liquidations between $103,000 and $106,000. However, the presence of short positions at $111,000 presents a scenario where bulls could reclaim control if they successfully push past this upper resistance. Ultimately, KillaXBT concludes the current BTC market structure suggests a delicate balance with high-leverage positions stacked both above and below current prices. The market expert warns that traders refrain from engaging the market until the highlighted liquidation zones are tested. Bitcoin Market Overview At press time, Bitcoin trades at $107,451, after a slight 0.41% gain in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is down by a staggering 36.12% suggesting a fall in market participation. Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Sentora reports that Bitcoin’s weekly network fees totaled $3.39 million, marking a 38.9% decline from the previous week. Despite this drop in on-chain activity, exchange outflows of $310 million suggest a strong market confidence, as investors increasingly move their assets into private wallets, typically a sign of long-term holding intent.

A new wave of debate is sweeping through crypto circles as some analysts suggest XRP could someday trade at $20,000 per coin. The price today sits near $2. That means a 10,000× jump from current levels. According to reports, the idea first took shape in 2022, when game developer and XRP backer Chad Steingraber laid out a plan that leaned on big banks and tokenized assets. Now, that bold forecast has resurfaced on social platform X, sparking fresh talk about where this digital token might head next. Rise Of Tokenized Assets According to Steingraber, the first step involves issuing stablecoins and central bank digital currencies on the XRP Ledger. Every time a new token launches there, it would need XRP to settle transactions. That could push up daily demand. Today, only a handful of tokens sit on the XRP chain, but he sees that growing into the hundreds. If even 100 new coins adopt XRP settlements, demand could climb by billions of dollars each year. Banks Holding XRP As Gold Based on reports, the second driver is banks treating XRP like a reserve asset. Instead of just trading it on public exchanges, financial firms would stash XRP in private ledgers to back their own digital currencies. He points to “many institutions” that have already floated plans to include XRP in their reserve piles. If each of those firms holds hundreds of millions of dollars in XRP, it could remove a large chunk of supply from open markets. Institutional Absorption Of Supply Here’s where the math gets eye‑popping. XRP’s total supply is capped at 100 billion. But Steingraber says roughly 20 billion tokens remain in public hands after accounting for locks, burns, and lost keys. If big institutions lock away most of that, circulation could shrink to under 100 million. That would set the stage for a classic supply shock. He even predicts prices could surge from cents to thousands of dollars within hours once companies dive in. Regulatory And Competition Hurdles Despite the excitement, there are clear roadblocks. XRP is still fighting the US Securities and Exchange Commission in court. A final loss could stall deals or scare off banks. At the same time, rival chains like Ethereum and Solana also host tokenized assets. Those networks already see billions in daily volume. XRP would need to prove it offers something stronger or faster to win over big players. A Long Shot With Big Ifs This forecast hinges on three big “ifs”: strong tokenization growth, banks stacking XRP as reserves, and a real supply squeeze on public markets. If any one of those doesn’t materialize, the $20,000 mark drifts further away. Still, it makes for a gripping story. For now, XRP traders will watch legal filings and ledger activity with fresh eyes, wondering if this bold theory has any chance of coming true. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

The price of Litecoin didn’t end May in the best possible way, especially considering its start to the month, falling from around $95 to beneath $85 before May 31st. While the start of June was quite strong, the altcoin has failed to maintain its bullish momentum each time a rally seemed to be on. After falling beneath the $80 level on June 22, the Litecoin price seems to be back on its feet as it currently dances around the $87 mark. Interestingly, a fresh price outlook portraying an even brighter future for the cryptocurrency has emerged. How Much LTC Price Surged After First Two Golden Crosses In a recent post on the X platform, Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino shared an exciting analysis of the Litecoin price. According to the crypto expert, the price of LTC could embark on an explosive rally depending on its movement over the next few weeks. This bullish projection is based on the potential formation of a Golden Cross — the third ever — on the Litecoin weekly chart. In a crypto context, a Golden Cross occurs when a short-term moving average (50-week moving average, in this case) crosses above a longer-term moving average (200-week moving average). Typically, Golden Cross formations often precede and are associated with extended periods of bullish price movements. However, Severino believes that Litecoin is just weeks of a significant rally away from triggering its third-ever Golden Cross on the weekly price chart. Severino cited the earlier two situations where the Golden Cross occurred after a substantial price rally. In the first instance, this chart phenomenon appeared on the Litecoin weekly timeframe after a 700% surge from the local lows in 2017. Meanwhile, the LTC rallied by 450% from its local bottom before the second-ever Golden Cross in 2021. For each time the Golden Cross appeared on the chart, the price of Litecoin witnessed a significant bullish momentum. In 2017, the LTC price soared by 7,100% from around $5 to as high as $360. The altcoin jumped by more than 380% to reach its current all-time high of $410 after the Golden Cross formation in 2021. If the Golden Cross does occur and history is anything to go by, the Litecoin price could be preparing to reach a new all-time high in its next leg up. Litecoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of LTC stands at around $86.26, reflecting a 1.7% increase in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the altcoin is up by more than 7% in the last seven days.

Dogecoin has spent the majority of the past five days trading within a tight range between $0.156 and $0.165. Notably, the meme coin is now showing early signs of stabilization after its steep correction earlier this month, with bulls beginning to reclaim ground after a drop below the $0.17 price barrier. Reclaiming the $0.17 level is important, according to technical analysis of Dogecoin’s price. This technical backdrop sets the stage for a projected price move to $0.21. TD Sequential Flashes Buy Signal For Dogecoin Dogecoin’s 3-day candlestick timeframe chart shows that the meme coin is currently trading just above an ascending trendline that dates back to late 2023, which has acted as a key support level across multiple correction cycles. Despite the recent volatility, the price structure appears to be ready for a possible bounce move from here due to the formation of less volatile candlesticks and higher lows just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around $0.165. Taking to the social media platform X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed an interesting bullish signal taking place on the same 3-day candlestick timeframe. According to Martinez, Dogecoin has just triggered a buy signal on the 3-day TD Sequential indicator. This tool, which identifies trend exhaustion and possible reversals, has been quite useful in predicting buy and sell zones this cycle. However, the bullish outlook depends on Dogecoin reclaiming the $0.17 price level, which is now working as some sort of resistance. Martinez noted that a breakout above this price level could allow Dogecoin to rebound to $0.21. Notably, this $0.21 price target coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension from Dogecoin’s October 2023 low. Image From X: @ali_charts Path To $0.21 Needs Enough Volume For Dogecoin to confirm a return to $0.21, market participation must return in a meaningful way. This is because Dogecoin’s trading volume has been notably low over the past few days. According to data from CoinMarketCap, Dogecoin’s 24-hour trading volume is currently at just $400 million, which is a 36.7% decrease from the previous day. This level of activity is significantly below Dogecoin’s usual trading volume during periods of upward momentum. Such a slowdown in volume suggests that, despite the bullish technical signal from the TD Sequential indicator, the necessary follow-through from buyers is yet to be confirmed. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.1637, up by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Until volume picks up, Dogecoin may continue to consolidate or even drift sideways, regardless of the bullish indicators. Unless there’s strong interest and stronger inflows, the breakout setup could fizzle out or result in another rejection at $0.17. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

In the latest Africa crypto news: South Africa crypto payments hit 2M Rand monthly as Kenya eliminates its 3% crypto tax. Yellow Card seeks to expand stablecoin use. South Africa remains a continental trailblazer, with Luno Pay crypto retail payments averaging 2 million Rand monthly. In Kenya, Parliament has eliminated a 3% tax on gross crypto revenue. Meanwhile, Yellow Card aims to enhance stablecoin usage across Francophone Africa. Let’s explore these continental headlines below: EXPLORE: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 South Africa Crypto News: Payments Exceed 2 Million Rand Monthly South Africa continues demonstrating its strong embrace of cryptocurrency. A study by the Luno crypto exchange shows that its retail payment tool has averaged 2 million Rand in crypto payments over the past six months. This figure is impressive, given that only one retail payment service operates in the country. South Africa shows a growing appetite for crypto payments beyond standard speculative holding, including in some of the top Solana meme coins. BonkPriceMarket CapBONK2$1.18B24h7d30d1yAll time In a statement, Crhristo de Wit, the country manager at Luno, said crypto payments are becoming more prevalent in everyday purchases. “The appetite for digital currency transactions in everyday commerce is growing. The wide transaction spectrum indicates that cryptocurrency payments are becoming more common for everyday purchases and significant expenses. Our data shows that many customers use Luno Pay regularly for routine purchases and services.” Cryptocurrencies have barely impacted the share of global payments made by fiat currencies. Still, this report highlights the transactional potential of some of the best cryptos to buy in growing African markets. EXPLORE: 15 New & Upcoming Coinbase Listings to Watch in 2025 Kenya Crypto News: Legislators Drop 3% Digital Asset Tax Following successful lobbying by stakeholders, the Parliament has eliminated a 3% digital asset tax on crypto and digital assets. The tax was dropped after lobbying led by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). Kimani Kuria, chairperson of the Finance Committee, noted that industry advocates convinced legislators to scrap the tax. The measure awaits Presidential assent before officially taking effect. This victory underscores the importance of collaborating with regulators to ensure sensible regulations and avoid punitive taxes that stifle the crypto industry. Africa Crypto News: Yellow Card Expands Stablecoin Usage in Francophone Africa After a successful year of expansion, fintech and crypto service provider Yellow Card aims to broaden its footprint across Francophone countries. Regional Deputy Director Lowe Sall noted that this effort addresses the low adoption rates of stablecoins in the region. According to Sall, stablecoins have an adoption rate of less than 20% for crypto payments in West and Central African countries, compared to about 50% in the rest of Africa. Most Francophone countries still rely on the CFA Franc for commerce, presenting an opportunity for stablecoins to serve as an alternative for crypto trading. Yellow Card, backed by significant investment from Blockchain Capital, has the resources to expand crypto payment reach across the region. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 – Top New Crypto Coins Africa Crypto News: South Africa Payments Surge, Kenya Scraps Crypto Tax South Africa crypto news: Luno pay processes over 2 million Rand in crypto payments Kenya crypto news: Parliament to remove the proposed 3% crypto tax Africa crypto news: Yellow Card to expand stablecoin usage in Francophone regions The post Africa Crypto News Week in Review: South Africa Crypto Payments Spike, Kenya Scraps Crypto Tax as Yellow Card Boosts Stablecoin Use appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Bitcoin has been consolidating in a wide range between $100,000 and $112,000, facing heightened volatility driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing macroeconomic uncertainty. Despite these external pressures, Bitcoin has held strong above the six-figure mark, signaling resilience as it prepares for a decisive move. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with many traders expecting a breakout in the coming weeks. Top analyst Daan shared a technical analysis highlighting that Bitcoin is now trading just below its all-time high, but continues to face strong resistance around the $109,000–$112,000 zone. Price has tested this level multiple times over the past month, but each attempt has failed to produce a confirmed breakout. During this period, altcoins have suffered sharp drawdowns, with many falling between 10% and 50%, underscoring Bitcoin’s dominance and investor focus. Despite the rejections, bullish momentum is gradually building. Bitcoin’s ability to stay elevated in such a volatile environment suggests that buyers are accumulating, waiting for the right moment to push higher. A confirmed breakout above resistance could trigger a sharp move into price discovery, while failure to hold key support may lead to deeper consolidation before the next leg up. Bitcoin Bulls Push Toward Breakout Bitcoin has gained over 15% since early May, extending a bullish trend that began in April when the price rebounded sharply from the $75,000 level. Since then, buyers have remained in control, consistently defending higher lows and reclaiming key technical levels. This steady rise in momentum has fueled speculation that Bitcoin may soon break into new all-time highs, as market sentiment improves and capital continues flowing into crypto. Analysts are now closely watching the $110,000–$112,000 resistance zone—a level that has held strong despite multiple breakout attempts. Daan noted that Bitcoin is trading just below its all-time high, but has already faced several failed moves above this barrier. Over the past month, price has hovered near resistance, yet hasn’t delivered a confirmed breakout. During this period, altcoins have struggled, with many dropping between 10% and 50%, further highlighting Bitcoin’s dominance and traders’ caution. While the setup looks bullish, risks remain. A proper breakout will require not just a brief wick above $110K, but a strong weekly close or at least two consecutive daily closes above resistance. Until then, it’s wise to stay patient. Chasing before confirmation can lead to getting caught in a false breakout. Once Bitcoin breaks and holds above this level, the probability of a larger move increases significantly. In the meantime, Bitcoin’s ability to hold near highs while absorbing macro volatility and altcoin weakness is a strong sign of underlying demand. Momentum is building—but timing matters. A confirmed breakout will be the signal that the next leg up is ready to begin. Until then, smart traders are watching and waiting. BTC Weekly Chart Shows Strong Structure Bitcoin is currently trading at $107,319 on the weekly chart, continuing to hover just below the crucial $109,300 resistance level. Despite multiple attempts, BTC has failed to close a weekly candle above this zone—a critical milestone needed to confirm a breakout and signal the next phase of upward momentum. The $103,600 level now serves as strong weekly support, holding firm through recent pullbacks. The long-term structure remains bullish. Price continues to trend above all major moving averages, including the 50-week SMA ($85,147), the 100-week SMA ($66,505), and the 200-week SMA ($49,239), all of which are sloping upward. This alignment reflects solid long-term strength, even as Bitcoin consolidates just below all-time highs. Volume, however, remains relatively muted compared to the breakout seen in late 2024, suggesting that traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to new positions. Until BTC can close a weekly candle above $109,300, this range will remain intact. If bulls succeed, the market could enter price discovery and spark renewed inflows. But if rejection continues, the $103K–$105K zone becomes critical to hold. For now, Bitcoin’s bullish structure is intact, but confirmation is still required before a larger move can begin. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is currently trading around the $107,000 region after bouncing off a $99,000 low early in the week, but its progress is being capped just beneath a key resistance zone. Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin’s price is starting to coil into a wedge structure on the 1-hour chart, and crypto analyst Daan believes that the breakout from this formation could determine whether it has the strength to finally clear its most recent all-time high. Wedge Formation Stalls Bitcoin Below $108,000 Bitcoin has been consolidating within a descending wedge pattern over the past few days, as shown in the one-hour candlestick timeframe chart below. This consolidation came after Bitcoin rejected just above $108,000 on July 26. Notably, this pattern has formed beneath the $108,351 level, which is around the previous all-time high and is an important point of resistance in the current range. The pattern reflects a tightening of price action, with lower highs squeezing the price into a narrow range. Furthermore, on-chain trading volume has been relatively stable throughout this consolidation, with no strong directional bias yet. According to Daan’s analysis, even though this kind of setup could lead to a strong breakout, it may still take time to resolve. “It has been pretty choppy,” the analyst noted. The market’s lack of conviction is shown by Bitcoin’s repeated rejections just under the $108,000 level on multiple one-hour candlestick charts. A Clean Break Above $110k Could Change Everything Despite the relatively muted short-term moves, the wedge pattern is building pressure. A confirmed breakout above the upper resistance line, especially with a decisive close beyond $108,000 could mean the beginning of a much larger move. This close would be much more confirming on larger timeframes. Crypto analyst recommended zooming out to larger timeframes and waiting for that proper break above the $108,000 to $110,000 region. A proper breakout of Bitcoin above this range would also have a broader impact across the market and revive interest in altcoins. Without this breakout, however, Bitcoin is stuck within what the analyst describes as a “massive resistance in a larger range.” In this scenario, the leading cryptocurrency will be at risk of another downside volatility, especially if the support at the lower boundary of the wedge fails. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $107,447. Though the hourly price structure shows strength in rebounding from intraday lows near $106,200, Bitcoin bulls must now contend with the narrowing price action. The wedge formation shows that Bitcoin is gearing up for its next major move, but whether it will be upward or downward depends on how price reacts to the wedge boundaries and the $108,000 resistance line. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Ethereum is facing a crucial test as bulls and bears lock into a tight battle around the $2,500 level. Despite repeated attempts, bulls have yet to establish control above this key resistance, while bears have been unable to push the price to new lows, signaling an indecisive but increasingly tense standoff. This price compression comes at a time when broader market sentiment is shifting. The US stock market has just reached a new all-time high, and analysts believe crypto could be next to follow. Fueling that optimism is fresh data from Artemis showing that Ethereum recorded over $269 million in net inflows in the past 24 hours. This sharp increase in capital moving into ETH reflects renewed investor confidence and may act as a catalyst for further price action. As global liquidity trends upward and risk appetite returns, Ethereum continues to gain momentum. Still, the $2,500 level remains a major hurdle. A confirmed breakout above it could trigger a sharp move higher, potentially leading the way for altcoin recovery. Until then, ETH traders remain on alert, watching for either a clean breakout or another rejection in what could be a defining moment for Ethereum’s mid-term direction. Ethereum Builds Strength As Altseason Awaits Breakout Ethereum has been consolidating in a broad range, trading between $2,200 and $2,800 for several weeks. This tight band of price action reflects a broader indecisiveness across the altcoin market, with traders still waiting for a definitive breakout to kickstart the long-anticipated altseason. Despite occasional surges in momentum, ETH has yet to break above the $2,800 mark—a level that could open the door for sustained upside and renewed altcoin activity across the board. The macroeconomic environment remains a wildcard. With mixed inflation data, geopolitical risks, and a volatile interest rate outlook, markets are reacting cautiously. Yet, amid this backdrop, Ethereum continues to show resilience. Many analysts believe that once ETH breaks out of this range, it could act as the trigger for a broader altcoin rally. Adding to the bullish outlook is fresh data shared by top analyst Ted Pillows, who highlighted a significant shift in investor behavior. According to Pillows, Ethereum saw over $269 million in net inflows in the last 24 hours, signaling renewed demand from institutional and retail players alike. These inflows, tracked by Artemis, point to growing confidence and could serve as the foundation for Ethereum’s next leg higher. While uncertainty lingers, momentum is quietly building. Ethereum’s ability to hold above $2,200 and attract capital during macro headwinds suggests strength beneath the surface. For altseason to truly ignite, ETH must break out of its current range and push decisively into higher territory. Until then, traders and investors continue to watch closely, knowing that once the breakout happens, it could shift the entire market cycle forward. ETH Consolidates Below 200-Day SMA Ethereum is currently trading at $2,427, consolidating below the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,544. After bouncing off support near $2,200 earlier this month, ETH has managed to hold above the 100-day SMA ($2,167) and regain some structure. However, the price remains capped by a cluster of resistance levels, including the 50-day SMA ($2,534) and the 200-day SMA, both of which are converging near $2,540—a critical zone for bulls to reclaim. The chart shows that Ethereum has been trading within a broad range between $2,200 and $2,800 for several weeks, reflecting indecision in the market. The failure to break through the $2,800 zone earlier in June has kept ETH in a sideways pattern. Volume has also declined, suggesting caution among traders as ETH tests this tight band of resistance. A strong daily close above the $2,540–$2,550 region could confirm a bullish breakout and reignite momentum toward the $2,800 level. On the downside, a drop below $2,300 would weaken the current setup and expose Ethereum to further losses. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Dogecoin appears to be in the midst of a quiet accumulation phase, with a technical setup that may soon shift market sentiment. As highlighted by Crypto Man MAB, a double bottom pattern is taking shape on the weekly chart — a structure often associated with strong trend reversals. Structure Aligns With Sentiment: Is Dogecoin Poised For A Comeback? According to Crypto Man MAB in a recent post on X, Dogecoin appears to be setting the stage for a potential upward move, with a classic double-bottom pattern taking shape on the weekly chart. This pattern, often seen as a signal of a bullish reversal, has caught the attention of traders who are closely watching for confirmation. The current chart structure suggests that Dogecoin could be gearing up for a significant trend shift, provided the conditions align in favor of the bulls. At the center of this formation is the key support level at $0.142, which Crypto Man MAB emphasized as being critical to the potential breakout. This level was previously tested and held by bulls back in April 2025, demonstrating its strength as a defensive zone. If the support holds and bullish momentum continues to build, Crypto Man MAB pointed out that the next major focus will be on the neckline resistance around $0.26. A successful breakout above this point could validate the double-bottom pattern and open the door for a rally toward the $0.47 target. Downtrend Fatigue Sets In—Will The Bulls Take Over? Crypto Man MAB further noted that the ADX indicator, which is currently trending downward, signals a weakening of the recent downtrend from the neckline resistance. A slowdown in trend strength often precedes a shift in direction, and in this case, it supports the idea that Dogecoin could be preparing for a reversal. At the same time, attention has turned to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is hovering just below the neutral 50 level. While there are signs of increased buying interest, the RSI has yet to cross into bullish territory. Crypto Man MAB indicated that a decisive move above the 50 mark would significantly reinforce the bullish scenario, increasing the likelihood of a sustained rally. Until then, some sideways consolidation around the $0.142 support level remains possible. In conclusion, Crypto Man MAB believes Dogecoin is at a critical juncture, buoyed by market optimism surrounding the potential approval of a spot DOGE ETF. With both retail traders and larger investors (whales) accumulating at these levels, the stage is set for a possible breakout. Should current technical conditions improve and sentiment remain favorable, the path toward the $0.47 target could soon come into focus.

As Bitcoin (BTC) enters the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, bullish sentiment is growing, fueled by historical post-halving patterns that have repeatedly marked the beginning of explosive market moves. A crypto analyst now points to recurring trends observed in past cycles, where Q3 has often acted as a launchpad for significant price rallies in BTC following each halving year. Bitcoin Post-Halving Years Point To Explosive Q3 Luca, a crypto market expert on X (formerly Twitter), has doubled down on expectations for a major Bitcoin price rally in the coming quarter. He argues that expectations of an extended consolidation in Bitcoin, based on the fractals and market behavior seen in 2023 and early 2024, fail to account for a critical factor: 2025 is a post-halving year. The analyst points to a consistent pattern observed in every post-halving year throughout Bitcoin’s history. In his chart analysis published on June 26, Luca notes that Q3 in these years have consistently demonstrated strength, with no historical precedent for weakness, reinforcing the case for a bullish breakout. The chart compares Q3 performance during the post-halving years of 2013, 2017, and 2021. In each case, Bitcoin entered the third quarter with moderate or corrective price action, only to rally significantly in the weeks that followed. The left panel of the chart shows the 2013 post-halving year, where Bitcoin went from under $100 in July to over $680 in November. In 2017, the middle panel highlighted a similar trajectory, where BTC broke out from under $2,800 in early Q3 to over $16,000 by year-end. The most recent cycle in 2021, shown in the right panel of the chart, saw a Q3 recovery rally that took Bitcoin from under $39,000 in July to a former all-time high above $69,000 in November. Notably, Luca maintains that this consistent historical behavior is not coincidental, predicting that a similar rally could unfold in the current cycle, within the next few months. While he acknowledges the possibility of a short-term pullback, he emphasizes that Bitcoin’s broader market structure remains firmly bullish, with momentum still favoring further upside. Analyst Predicts $140,000 – $160,000 Bitcoin Cycle Top Moving forward, Luca’s chart reveals technical factors that align with his bullish thesis. Based on key Fibonacci Extension levels, the analyst projects that BTC’s next cycle top falls between $140,000 and $160,000, a target he believes could be attained toward the end of Q3. While acknowledging that the exact target could shift depending on how technical confluences evolve, the expectation remains that a Bitcoin rally is imminent. With BTC now trading around $107,423 after rebounding from a previous dip below $100,000, a potential move to $140,000 or even $160,000 would mark a substantial gain of approximately 30.35% and 48.97%, respectively. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The cryptocurrency market — specifically Bitcoin and Ethereum — has performed quite well in the second quarter of 2025, which is a stark contrast to the first quarter’s performance. The premier cryptocurrency capitalized on this bullish momentum, jumping to a new all-time high above the $111,000 mark. Similarly, the price of Ethereum started its own resurgence and reclaimed the $2,000 mark in early May, albeit the altcoin has been stuck in a consolidation range over the past month. Despite the brewing market uncertainty due to the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin and Ethereum have managed to stay afloat. US Investors Keep Crypto Prices Afloat In a new post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci revealed that United States investors have been active in the market over the past few weeks. The crypto analyst explained that this correlates with the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices withstanding bearish pressure in recent weeks. This on-chain observation is based on the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the difference between the crypto prices on the US-based Coinbase exchange (USD pair) and global Binance exchange (USDT pair). This metric reflects the sentiment of the US institutional entities (the major players on Coinbase) compared to those on global exchanges. Typically, when the price premium on Coinbase has a positive value, it implies increasing demand from US investors, who are willing to spend more than other global investors to buy cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum, in this case). On the flip side, the Coinbase Premium Index falling beneath the zero mark signals that US investors are buying less compared to the global traders. According to Kesmeci, the Bitcoin and Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index (excluding the abrupt dip in BTC on May 29) has been in the positive territory since May 9, 2024. This 47-day streak suggests high buying activity from US institutional investors despite geopolitical tensions. Kesmeci added: In the U.S., institutional investors and Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF investors (except for Fidelity) continue their heavy purchases through Coinbase (and have been for weeks). This is why Coinbase Premiums are showing strong positive momentum. Because of this (in my opinion), despite the crises, we haven’t seen a sharp drop in Bitcoin or Ethereum in the market. In essence, the on-chain analyst believes the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have been able to weather the storm with the rising tensions in Asia because US investors have been active in the market. Naturally, risk assets tend to succumb to bearish pressure during unstable conditions like wars, global pandemics, and so on. Bitcoin & Ethereum Price As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $107,100, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the Ether token is valued at around $2,420, with a mere 0.6% price jump in the past day.

Amidst a widespread uncertainty in the crypto market, SUI is undergoing a major price correction as evidenced by 23.25% loss in the past 30 days. During this period, the popular altcoin and a major headliner in the present market cycle has traded as low as $2.35, which is a 56.44% decline from its all-time high of $5.35 in January. Amidst this mayhem, prominent market expert with X pseudonym PlanD has stated the ongoing formation of a bullish dual pattern hints at an incoming explosive price gain in the SUI market. Technical Combo Sets Stage for SUI Surge – Analyst In an X post on June 27, PlanD shares an interesting price analysis that reveals the formation of two bullish patterns – the bull pennant and the inverse head and shoulder (H&S) – on the SUI daily chart. Both patterns currently form a confluence of technical indicators suggesting the altcoin is preparing for a major price rally as the second half of 2025 approaches. The inverse head and shoulder pattern is a common bullish reversal pattern. Amidst SUI’s price correction in Q1, the altcoin formed the left shoulder at $2.42 in February and head at $1.74 in April with a recent price bounce off $2.62 appearing to form the right shoulder. PlanD describes $2.62 as a critical support level in this bullish set-up, the validity of which ensures a potential price breakout. In studying PlanD’s technical analysis, the inverse H&S currently has a neckline of $4.25, breaking past which confirms the bullish price reversal with a price target set at $10.74. Meanwhile, The bull pennant is a common chart pattern marked by a strong price uptrend (flagpole), followed by a descending channel (pennant) that precedes a price breakout similar to the length of the flagpole. Based on the analysis presented by PlanD, prior bull pennants on the SUI chart have successfully resulted in explosive rallies as seen in 2023 and 2024. Notably, SUI bullish price action from mid 2024 to its ATH in January followed by a descending price movement since then represents the latest bull pennant. Based on the initial price surge (flagpole), PlanD presents a SUI long-term price target of $27, representing a potentially 10x gain on current market prices. SUI Price Overview At the time of writing, SUI trades at $2.69 following a 2.23% price gain in the past day. Despite its struggles in the last month, the altcoin still boasts of 226.33% price gain in the last year ranking as one best performing coins in the present market cycle.

Ouro testa suporte crítico e opções se tornam atraentes: volatilidade em queda e fluxo institucional desalinhado Análise Premium Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE O mercado de ouro (XAU/USD) entrou em uma fase de correção e consolidação mais profunda, colocando em risco a estrutura técnica que havia sustentado sua tendência de alta ao longo de 2025. Pela primeira vez no ano, o preço rompeu abaixo da linha de tendência ascendente vigente desde janeiro, além de se distanciar significativamente da média móvel de 50 dias — um comportamento que não era observado desde o final de 2024. Volatilidade em queda: opções estão baratas para os dois lados A correção recente no ouro levou a uma forte compressão da volatilidade implícita, medida pelo índice GVZ, que tradicionalmente tende a subir com a valorização do ouro. Esse movimento criou uma assimetria rara no mercado de opções: tanto puts de proteção de baixa quanto call spreads com exposição altista estão sendo negociados com preços historicamente baixos. Do ponto de vista tático, este é um momento oportuno para quem busca montar estruturas de proteção ou apostas direcionais com risco limitado. A relação risco-retorno é favorável em função da baixa volatilidade implícita. O enigma do dólar: e se ele voltar a se fortalecer? Apesar de uma sequência de análises negativas sobre o dólar, o índice DXY permanece próximo dos níveis observados no final de abril. Isso levanta uma preocupação entre traders: se o ouro já está fraco com o dólar estável, o que poderá ocorrer caso o dólar volte a se fortalecer? Essa correlação inversa entre ouro e dólar sugere que um novo impulso altista na moeda americana poderia acentuar ainda mais a correção do metal precioso, colocando à prova suportes-chave como US$ 3.180 e US$ 3.050. Fundos especulativos e fluxo sistemático: desalinhamento perigoso Os investidores não comerciais (non-commercials), que estavam em negação diante da correção, aumentaram suas posições compradas em ouro recentemente — justamente antes da queda mais acentuada. Esse erro de timing revela um desalinhamento perigoso entre o sentimento do mercado e o comportamento do preço. Além disso, modelos de fluxo sistemático (CTAs) estão se aproximando de níveis críticos que acionam desmontagens automáticas de posições longas, o que pode amplificar a pressão vendedora no curto prazo caso o suporte técnico não se sustente. Sazonalidade: o alívio de julho? Apesar dos sinais técnicos de fragilidade, o fator sazonal joga a favor dos comprados: historicamente, o ouro apresenta forte desempenho a partir de julho, refletindo, entre outros fatores, preparação para demanda joalheira asiática, movimento de cobertura de portfólios e fluxos táticos institucionais. O que esperar O mercado de ouro está em uma zona de teste estrutural. Se perder com força a região entre US$ 3.200 e US$ 3.180, o movimento de liquidação técnica pode se intensificar até suportes mais profundos em US$ 3.050, especialmente se houver fortalecimento do dólar e quebra de suporte institucional (fluxo CTA e ETFs). No entanto, a compressão de volatilidade e a entrada no período sazonalmente mais favorável criam oportunidades para operações de reversão ou de reentrada estratégica, principalmente via estrutura de opções com risco limitado e alta convexidade. Opinião do analista Igor Pereira O ouro está em um ponto de inflexão: rompeu a média de 50 dias e a linha de tendência de 2025, o que é tecnicamente relevante. Mas o mercado ainda está sobrecarregado de longs institucionais mal posicionados, o que abre espaço para liquidação e maior amplitude na correção. Por outro lado, a queda na volatilidade implícita, a sazonalidade positiva e o suporte técnico próximo criam uma das melhores janelas táticas para montar proteções e apostas direcionais com opções. Como analista, recomendo atenção redobrada nos próximos dias: caso o suporte de US$ 3.180 segure com entrada de volume institucional, o mercado pode rapidamente reverter e buscar US$ 3.400 novamente. A chave será observar o fluxo e os gatilhos sistemáticos de venda. Se não houver nova pressão vendedora, julho pode marcar o reinício de uma nova pernada altista.

Ouro sobe para recordes, mas Goldman Sachs alerta: “Proteção de baixa está barata e tecnicamente justificável” Análise Premium Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE Ao longo do último mês, os preços do ouro (XAU/USD) realizaram um movimento de ida e volta (roundtrip), renovando máximas históricas antes de devolver ganhos em meio a uma série de fatores técnicos e macroeconômicos. Grandes bancos, como UBS, JPMorgan e Goldman Sachs, elevaram suas projeções para o metal precioso, com algumas estimativas apontando para alvos de US$ 4.000 a US$ 4.500 até o fim de 2025. Entretanto, no curto prazo, o desk de metais preciosos do Goldman Sachs adota uma visão tática mais defensiva, recomendando compra de opções de venda (puts) como forma de proteção diante de sinais técnicos de fraqueza e falta de catalisadores claros de alta no curto prazo. Destaques das revisões otimistas dos bancos UBS, Goldman Sachs e JPMorgan revisaram suas perspectivas para o ouro, com alvos que vão de US$ 4.000 a US$ 4.500; Goldman declarou: "Com a morte do portfólio 60/40, o ouro é preferível aos Treasuries como proteção"); Traders institucionais do Goldman apontam 10 motivos pelos quais estão comprando ouro de forma estratégica; A acumulação de ouro pela China acima dos níveis oficialmente reportados também foi destacada como fator estrutural de suporte. Pressão técnica e oportunidade tática: downside barato Apesar do otimismo estrutural, Robbie Dwyer, trader sênior do Goldman Sachs, afirma que a proteção contra quedas no curto prazo está excepcionalmente barata no mercado de opções. O ouro rompeu sua média móvel de 50 dias e agora encontra suporte técnico mais relevante próximo de US$ 3.200, com dificuldade de se sustentar acima de US$ 3.400 mesmo durante episódios de escalada no Oriente Médio. Outros fatores destacados: A volatilidade implícita de 1 mês está abaixo de 15%, inferior à volatilidade realizada de 17% (últimos 20 dias) e muito abaixo dos 25% dos últimos 3 meses; Opções de venda com delta 25 (25d puts) estão negociando com desconto em relação às opções at-the-money, tornando-as atrativas para proteção tática; A sugestão do Goldman: comprar puts de 1 mês com strike US$ 3.200 (25d puts) a um custo de 22 dólares por onça com ouro spot a US$ 3.280 — uma aposta com perda máxima limitada ao prêmio pago. Fundamentos e comportamento dos players institucionais O modelo de fluxo sistemático do Goldman mostra venda líquida por parte de algoritmos e fundos sistemáticos; O posicionamento de "managed money" (fundos especulativos) continua elevado em termos nominais, deixando espaço para liquidações; Investidores chineses permanecem com posições extremamente longas, o que pode aumentar a pressão de venda em correções; A ausência de um novo catalisador claro após trégua no Oriente Médio, avanços na relação comercial EUA-China e recuo do projeto de lei S.899 contribui para a fragilidade do preço no curto prazo. O que esperar No curto prazo, o ouro pode continuar enfrentando pressão técnica até a faixa de US$ 3.200, especialmente se não houver novos catalisadores macro ou geopolíticos. A fraqueza na reação a eventos de alta intensidade (como conflitos ou decisões políticas) indica exaustão de momentum. No entanto, a perspectiva de longo prazo continua construtiva, dada a continuidade da acumulação por bancos centrais, os desequilíbrios fiscais dos EUA e o movimento contínuo de desdolarização por parte de economias emergentes. Opinião do analista Igor Pereira A movimentação recente do ouro reflete um mercado dividido entre fundamentos estruturalmente altistas e uma tática de curto prazo de realização e proteção. O fato de grandes bancos como Goldman Sachs recomendarem proteção por meio de opções de venda reforça o cenário de cautela técnica até que o preço supere com consistência resistências como US$ 3.400 ou US$ 3.450. Oportunidades de entrada devem ser observadas em zonas de suporte técnico relevantes, como US$ 3.200, desde que acompanhadas por fluxos institucionais positivos e retomada de momentum. Para o investidor de longo prazo, correções como essa representam pontos de acumulação. Para o trader tático, o uso de opções pode ser a ferramenta mais eficiente neste momento de assimetria entre fundamentos e preço.

The Cardano price performance has been nothing short of shambolic since the start of May, falling from the lofty heights of $0.85 in less than two months. According to data from CoinGecko, the altcoin’s value has declined by more than 24% in the past month. While the price of ADA saw an explosive growth at the beginning of the second quarter, the token is now back where it started in April — just above the $0.5 mark. Interestingly, the signs are pointing to further decline for the Cardano price over the next few weeks. ADA Price Stuck In Descending Channel On Friday, June 27, prominent market analyst Ali Martinez took to the social media platform X to share an ominous prediction for the ADA token’s price. According to the crypto pundit, the Cardano price could be heading to around $0.47 for its next support. This bearish projection revolves around the appearance of a descending channel pattern on the three-day Cardano chart. A descending channel is a chart formation in technical analysis characterized by two major trendlines: the upper line acting as the resistance level and the lower line acting as the support level. The space between these trendlines serves as the channel within which prices move over a period. Typically, the formation of a descending channel suggests the persistence of a downward price trend and lower highs. At the same time, traders can use this pattern to identify optimal entry and exit points. The Cardano price chart above, for instance, shows that the altcoin price has been in a downward trend since last November. The token seemed to have turned its fortune around after finding support at the lower trendline in early April and running back above the $0.8 level. However, the Cardano price failed to break the upper trendline at the beginning of May and has since been experiencing a downturn. According to Martinez, the ADA token could fall to as low as $0.47 — around the lower trendline — to find a support cushion. Moreover, the 1.272 Fibonacci level — used in technical analysis to identify price targets and support or resistance levels — is also around the lower trendline. Ultimately, this means that the Cardano price could fall even lower than its current price point. Cardano Price At A Glance As of this writing, the ADA token is valued at around $0.56, reflecting a 1.3% price jump in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the price of Cardano is down by more than 3% in the last seven days.

In line with the broader crypto market, Aptos (APT) experienced a remarkable price upswing in the past week culminating in a market gain of 12.53%. However, the prominent altcoin remains in a corrective phase with a price loss of 8.75% on its monthly chart. Aptos has famously underperformed in the crypto bullish resurgence that kicked off in April reaching a local peak of $6.14 while the present market cycle top lies around $17.90. However, popular market analyst with X username PlanD has tipped the altcoin to maintain its most recent uptrend as indicated by a bullish chart pattern. Aptos Ready For Major Bullish Price Reversal – Analyst In a recent X post on June 27, PlanD provides an insightful technical analysis on the APT market hinting at a major price surge ahead . Firstly, the renowned analyst explains APT has shown consistent price movement within a descending channel over the past two and half years. However, APT price action in the past three months have twice retested the lower boundary of this channel, thereby forming a double bottom pattern – a bullish reversal pattern formed when price forms two similar lows separated by a rebound as seen between April till date on the chart below. The peak of the intervening price rebound serves as the pattern’s neckline, and a breakout above this level confirms the market’s intent for a bullish reversal. Therefore, if APT bulls can secure a decisive daily close above $6.00, it would likely trigger a broader market rebound, with price targets set around $9.92, representing an estimated 100% gain on present market prices. Beyond $9.92, a sustained buying pressure could force APT to return to its cycle top at $17.90 which currently aligns with the upper boundary of the descending price channel. According to PlanD’s analysis, a successful breakout above this long-standing channel exposes investors to lofty price targets as high as $55 and $79. On the cautionary note, APT bulls must avoid a price rejection at the $6.00 region, which represents the market’s next major resistance. The occurrence of such a scenario would suggest a delay of the purported or invalidation in the case of price fall below the present support line at the lower boundary of the descending channel. Aptos Price Overview At the time of writing, APT trades at $4.88 reflecting a 2.41% decline in the past day. Meanwhile, the altcoin’s daily trading volume is soaring by 67.08% and valued at $430.09 million. With a market cap of $3.41 billion , Aptos ranks as the 31st largest cryptocurrency in the market.

Crypto analyst XForce has predicted that Ethereum could reach a new all-time high (ATH) of $10,000 in this market cycle. He acknowledged that there is yet to be a macro fundamental that supports this bullish outlook, but remarked that it remains “ideal.” Ethereum Eyeing Rally To As High As $10,000 In an X post, XForce stated that Ethereum is still looking to shoot for a new ATH this cycle and could end around $9,000 to $10,000. This followed his remarks that ETH’s move up on the shorter timeframes was objectively impulsive. In other words, these rallies were bullish with real-time technical indicators. As to what could drive this Ethereum rally to $10,000, XForce noted that there is no macro scenario providing a good look. However, he remarked that this rally to this ambitious target remains only ideal in nature, given the context. The analyst added that this idea remains his primary prediction for now. Crypto analyst Venturefounder also recently predicted that Ethereum could reach this $10,000 price target in this market cycle. However, the analyst declared that ETH’s run to this ambitious target depends on whether the altcoin is able to flip $4,000 into support by the fourth quarter of this year. Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto also recently suggested that Ethereum was ready for a lift-off. In an X post, he stated that after a failed breakout, ETH deviated below and found support right on the cloud. Now, the altcoin is back within the range. For a bullish momentum to resume, Titan of Crypto claimed that ETH must clear the cloud and reclaim the Kijun around $2,500. The analyst had previously predicted that Ethereum could rally to $8,500 in this market cycle. An Ultra Bullish Scenario For ETH In response to his initial X post, XForce provided an alternative scenario for Ethereum, in which it could rally to as high as $150,000. The analyst remarked that it would be wild to see this play out, but that it remains an option based on an idealized 5-wave structure. ETH is expected to reach the $150,000 target on Wave 5. XForce’s accompanying chart showed that Ethereum could reach this $150,000 target by July 2028. The analyst remarked that the uber bullish scenario remains his alternative because there seems to be no logical approach for ETH to reach such levels. He again warned that neither scenario provides the proper context on the macro, but only remains ideal. As such, based on logic, XForce remarked that it is best to choose the best of the worst. At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $2,400, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Gemini, a popular crypto exchange, has just launched a tokenized version of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) stock for EU users. Strategy is a Bitcoin-investing firm currently holding 592,345 $BTC, making it one of the largest institutional holders of the asset. As such, a tokenized version of Strategy’s stock is an indirect but powerful way of offering on-chain participants more $BTC exposure. This also bridges the gap between traditional stock markets and on-chain infrastructure by addressing key issues like limited trading hours and high international fees. Gemini has partnered with Dinari in an attempt to offer more liquidity and transparency by leveraging the latter’s tokenization-on-demand model. Read on to learn more about this exciting development and why it could positively impact your crypto portfolio. We’ll also highlight the best altcoins you can invest in right now. Tokenized Stocks Are Here, and Crypto Investors Should Be Excited Tokenization converts real-world assets into digital tokens. For example, Tether Gold ($XAUT) is the tokenized version of gold. Currently, $MSTR is the only US equity stock to be tokenized for EU investors. However, Gemini says that more such tokenized stocks and ETFs will be launched soon. It’s fair to say that tokenization is the future of investing, as it closes the gap between the traditional stock market and blockchain participation. It allows crypto investors to diversify their portfolios without leaving the secure environment. Gemini’s choice of $MSTR also aligns well with crypto enthusiasts because it offers them the opportunity to invest in a crypto-native firm. Considering all this, this is probably an opportune time to invest in some hot new meme coins, i.e., if you wish to ride the tokenization trend. 1. Snorter Token ($SNORT) – Best Altcoin to Buy Now, Swipe Liquidity in New Meme Coins Snorter Token ($SNORT) is a new crypto changing the way retailers trade meme coins. It’s a Telegram-based trading bot that swipes liquidity in newly listed meme coins with automatic limit, stop, and stop-loss orders. Additionally, Snorter Bot only charges 0.85% as trading fees, as opposed to the 1% charged by competitors Banana Gun and Bonk Bot. To access the industry-lowest trading fees, though, you’ll have to be a $SNORT holder. Owning $SNORT also comes with the potential to make 1,400% returns in less than five years, as the crypto is predicted to explode and reach $1.25 by 2030. In addition to comprehensive security, Snorter Bot also comes with an excellent copy-trading feature, allowing you to mimic successful traders without leaving the Telegram chat. $SNORT is currently in presale, with over $1.35M in funding so far. Even better, you can buy one token for just $0.0965. 2. BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL) – Only Crypto to Buy Now for Free $BTC Airdrops BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL) is the newest – and probably the smartest – way to become a part of Bitcoin’s success story. As the digital gold climbs to new highs, so can your portfolio if you buy $BTCBULL and store it in Best Wallet. That way, you’ll be eligible for free Bitcoin airdrops. Yep, BTC Bull Token is the ONLY crypto in the world to offer token holders free (and real) $BTC. These airdrops will occur every time Bitcoin hits a new milestone, like $150K and $200K. Plus, $BTCBULL is expected to surge 277% and reach $0.0096 by 2026. Furthermore, the developers have also planned to follow a deflationary approach. Under this, a handful of $BTCBULL tokens will be burnt off every time Bitcoin climbs up by $50K. This will ensure continuing token hype and price appreciation. If you want to benefit from $BTCBULL, buy the token now while it’s still in presale. The project has in total raised over $7.5M, and each token is currently available for just $0.00258. Here’s how to buy it. 3. Dog (Bitcoin) ($DOG) – Canine-Themed Crypto Poised to Pump With dog-themed meme coins expected to make a strong comeback thanks to the SEC warming up to the idea of a $DOGE ETF, $DOG could be one of the next cryptos to explode. $DOG might not be as mainstream as, say, Dogecoin or Shiba Inu, but it stands out because it’s built directly on the Bitcoin blockchain. It’s a community-driven token with no real utility other than to prove crypto degens some meme coin fun right on Bitcoin, one of the most secure blockchains out there. $DOG is currently trading at $0.003911, having gained more than 28% over the past 7 days. According to recent price action, it’s about to break out of a descending triangle pattern, so we can expect a surge sooner rather than later. Conclusion With a major crypto exchange like Gemini launching a tokenized version of a US stock, it wouldn’t be wrong to say that the sky’s the limit for digital assets. If you’d like front-row seats to this revolution, consider investing in high-potential tokens like Snorter Token ($SNORT) and BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL). However, bear in mind that none of this is financial advice; the crypto market is highly volatile. So, kindly do your own research before investing.

ONDO is under pressure after a sharp 33% decline from its May highs, reflecting growing uncertainty and bearish momentum across the market. Once a standout performer, the token has lost steam as sentiment shifts and price action turns decisively negative. While some traders are still watching for potential rebounds, many analysts are now calling for a breakdown, warning that the current structure could give way to deeper losses if key support levels fail to hold. The mood around ONDO remains divided. Some investors view the dip as a healthy retrace in a broader uptrend, while others see it as the start of a more extended correction. Top analyst Ali Martinez has added to the cautious outlook, noting that ONDO is breaking out of an ascending channel to the downside—an often bearish signal. This pattern suggests that momentum is weakening and that the token could soon test lower demand zones. With ONDO hovering near key technical levels and volume thinning, the coming days will be critical. If the breakdown continues, the price could revisit earlier consolidation areas. For now, bearish pressure dominates, and bulls must defend support convincingly to prevent further downside. Bulls Struggle To Hold Structure As Risks Grow As the broader altcoin market braces for a decisive move, ONDO remains trapped in a bearish structure, unable to establish clear demand. Bulls have struggled to reclaim momentum or push price above critical supply zones needed to maintain the long-term uptrend. With sellers dominating and key support levels under pressure, ONDO’s technical structure appears fragile. Despite recent weakness, some market participants remain cautiously optimistic about ONDO’s longer-term potential. Macro narratives around real-world asset tokenization continue to support fundamental interest, but short-term price action remains a challenge. The inability to hold above prior consolidation ranges suggests that buyers are not yet stepping in with enough conviction to flip the trend. Ali Martinez has raised alarms by highlighting a concerning technical development: ONDO is breaking out of an ascending channel—this time to the downside. Historically, this pattern signals a shift in market structure and sets the stage for more aggressive downside moves. Martinez’s outlook points to a potential slide toward the $0.29 level, which would mark a significant breakdown from current prices. For now, ONDO trades in a vulnerable position. If bulls fail to reclaim higher levels and restore momentum, the altcoin risks accelerating its decline. However, if sentiment shifts and broader market strength returns, ONDO could still recover in the coming months. ONDO Breaks Below Moving Averages As Bearish Momentum Builds ONDO is trading at $0.747 after failing to hold above key moving averages, with both the 50-day ($0.93) and 200-day ($1.00) simple moving averages now acting as overhead resistance. The current price structure on the 3-day chart shows a consistent downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows forming since the March peak. Price has now broken below the prior consolidation zone, signaling growing bearish momentum. The rejection from the $1.00 psychological level earlier this quarter added to downward pressure, and the break of the $0.80 level confirms that bulls are losing control of short-term structure. If ONDO continues to trade below both moving averages, it may struggle to find solid demand in the near term. Key historical resistance remains at $1.51, but with ONDO currently 50% below that level and forming a bearish structure, downside risk continues to dominate. A breakdown below $0.70 could accelerate the fall, potentially targeting the $0.60–$0.50 range where previous demand clusters formed in late 2023. For bulls to regain momentum, ONDO must reclaim the 50-day SMA and close above $0.85. Until then, the chart favors the bears, and the trend suggests caution for long positions. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin briefly climbed back above $100,000 this month, pushing close to the $108,000 level before a new pullback. The move looks strong on the surface. But based on reports from Glassnode, much of that surge came from traders using borrowed funds, not fresh buyers piling in. Speculative Bets Fuel Recent Rally According to on-chain data, late-June’s volume on Bitcoin futures stayed high as prices marched upward. Traders betting on short-term gains drove the market, even as the excitement behind the rally faded. Funding rates and the three-month futures basis both moved lower, signaling less bullish conviction. In other words, fewer people were making big, long bets on Bitcoin these days. Spot Market Remains Quiet Spot trading did not follow the futures boom. At its $111,910 peak in May, daily spot volume hovered around $7.65 billion. That’s well below the previous cycle highs, which topped $20 billion on some days. Based on reports, new cash from retail or long-term holders stayed on the sidelines instead of flooding in. Institutional Buyers Still Adding Big firms did keep buying. This week saw Michael Saylor’s Strategy, Metaplanet and ProCap BTC together pick up about $1 billion worth of Bitcoin. At the same time, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs bought over $1.5 billion in fresh supply. Those steady purchases hint at genuine interest from institutions, even if short-term traders set the pace recently. Supply Tightness Could Drive Prices Glassnode now shows just 7 million BTC left freely available on exchanges. Roughly 14 million BTC are held by people who haven’t moved their coins in ages. That supply squeeze could support prices if demand holds up. But it also means any sudden sell-off might hit hard when exchange wallets run low. What Comes Next For Bitcoin All in all, the recent jump above $100,000 feels more like a sprint by margin players than a marathon fueled by new believers. Corrections often follow rallies driven by heavy margin activity. Yet, the ongoing buying by big companies and ETFs offers a buffer. If they keep at it, Bitcoin may need a breather now but could rally again later. As of June 28, Bitcoin traded at $106,500, down 0.85% on the day. Market watchers will be looking for a return of fresh spot demand or a stabilizing of futures bets before declaring the uptrend back on solid ground. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Highlights include US NFP, ISMs, EZ CPI, Japanese Tankan,China PMIs and Swiss CPI Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights for 30th June-4th July 2025 MON: Japanese Industrial Output (May), Chinese Official PMIs (Jun), German Retail Sales (May), German/Italian Prelim CPI (Jun) TUE: Japanese Tankan (Q2), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI (Jun), German Unemployment (Jun), EZ HICP Flash (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun), WED: NBP Policy Announcement; US Challenger Layoffs (Jun), ADP (Jun), EZ Unemployment (May) THU: Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Jun), Swiss CPI (Jun), EZ, UK & US Final Composite/Services PMI (Jun), US NFP (Jun), Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI (Jun), Factory Orders (May) FRI: Swiss Unemployment (Jun), German Industrial Orders (May), EZ Producer Prices (May); 4th July – Early Close CHINESE OFFICIAL PMIS (MON): China will release its official June PMIs on Monday, with desks eyeing whether recent tariff reductions and stabilisation in external conditions have begun to filter through. ING expects the manufacturing PMI to remain in contraction but edge higher to 49.8 (prev. 49.5), while the non-manufacturing gauge is seen broadly unchanged. No market consensus is available at the time of writing. The new export orders sub-index will be in focus amid recent policy support and easing in trade tensions. Desks note that while headline sentiment may stabilise, broader recovery signals remain tentative. The Caixin PMIs follow later in the week. EZ CPI (TUE): Expectations are for headline Y/Y HICP to hold steady at 1.9% and core HICP to tick lower to 2.3% from 2.4%. As a reminder, May inflation data saw Y/Y HICP decline to 1.9% from 2.2% (below target for the first time since September 2024). Core inflation declined to 2.4% from 2.7%, whilst services inflation saw a notable fall to 3.7% from 4.0%. This time around, analysts at Investec expect a further moderation in price pressures. The desk expects headline and core HICP inflation to have seen a 0.1ppt fall, with the annual rates easing to 1.8% and 2.2% respectively. Investec notes that “factors behind this include a further moderation in services as well as in food price inflation, although we think this may be slightly offset by movements in energy and goods prices”. Ahead of the EZ-wide release, French HICP Y/Y rose to 0.8% from 0.6% (Exp. 0.7%) and Spanish HICP Y/Y advanced to 2.2% from 2.0% (Exp. 2.0%). From a policy perspective, given the ongoing appreciation in the EUR, a soft release could heighten calls for the ECB to ease further this year with markets not fully pricing another 25bps reduction until February 2026. However, markets may take greater impetus from the trade front with the latest comments from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggesting that a deal with the EU could be announced by the end of next week (week ending July 4th). BOJ TANKAN SURVEY (TUE): The BoJʼs June Tankan survey is expected to show a modest deterioration in business sentiment among both large manufacturers and non-manufacturers, marking the first major confidence gauge since the implementation of new US auto tariffs. According to estimates compiled by 15 private forecasters, and cited by Japanese press JiJi, the large manufacturersʼ diffusion index is seen easing to +10 (prev. +12), as export headwinds from global trade tensions weigh on the outlook. Analysts note that recent reciprocal tariffs, particularly from the Trump administration, have clouded the external demand picture, with autos and related sectors flagged as most vulnerable. On the services side, sentiment is expected to be more resilient, underpinned by solid domestic demand and stable labour conditions. In terms of recent trade commentary, Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa this week said Japan will continue tariff talks with the US with additional reciprocal tariffs due on July 9 in mind, but cannot accept the 25% auto tariff. Try Newsquawk free for 7 days US ISM MANUFACTURING (TUE): As a comparison, US manufacturing activity held steady in June, with the flash manufacturingPMI unchanged at 52.0, matching Mayʼs 15-month high. Factory output rose for the first time since February, and new orders growth remained resilient, S&P Global said. Input purchasing surged, driving the fastest inventory accumulation in over three years, often linked to tariff concerns. Employment rose at the strongest pace in a year, contributing positively to the PMI, while backlogs increased for the first time since September 2022. Price pressures intensified sharply, however, with input and output prices picking up at the fastest pace since July 2022, with most firms attributing higher costs to tariffs. Manufacturers passed these costs to customers, amplifying inflation concerns. S&P said that the data points to near-term manufacturing strength supported by domestic demand and inventory building, but this may be temporary. Export orders slipped and the inventory boost may unwind. Elevated price pressures, largely tariff-driven, suggest ongoing inflation risks. As such, Fed policy is likely to remain cautious, with little justification for imminent rate cuts. SWISS CPI (THU): Juneʼs figure follows the -0.1% Y/Y print we got in May, a negative read that was mainly attributed to falling energy prices and tourism developments. As such, the SNB lowered its short-term inflation forecasts in the June meeting (where a 25bps cut to 0.00% was enacted), taking the Q2-2025 forecast down to 0.0% (prev. 0.3%). As a reminder, Mayʼs figure was -0.1% and Aprilʼs 0.0% and as such the SNB will need an above-zero print for its Q2 average forecast to hold; a print that is possible given recent energy upside and hotter-than-expected reads from France and Spain, for instance, over the same period. For the SNB, the figure will be scrutinised to see if their decisions to go to 0.0% rather than NIRP was the correct move or not. However, of course, the SNB still has multiple months to go until the September announcement. US NFP (THU): US nonfarm payrolls are due to be released on Thursday, rather than the usual Friday, on account of the Independence Day market holidays. The US economy is expected to add 129k nonfarm payrolls in June (prev. 139k; vs 3-month average of 135k, 6-month average of 157k, and a 12-month average of 144k). The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% (note: the Fed has forecast a rise to 4.5% by the end of this year). The rate of average hourly earnings is expected to cool to +0.3% M/M from vs the +0.4% in May, while average workweek hours are seen unchanged at 34.3hrs. At his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Powell said the labour market remains solid, acknowledging only a “very, very slow continued cooling” that he does not view as troubling; Powell cited strong job creation and labour force participation as signs of continued resilience. This sentiment has been echoed by other officials too. Policymakers also continue to offer their usual caveats, whereby if the labour market were to deteriorate sharply, the Fed would be prepared to step in with looser policy, but for now, officials do not see this in the current data. Instead, while Fed members have been noting that they are attentive to both their inflation and labour market mandates, much of the focus appears to be around inflation dynamics, where the bulk of speakers making remarks in wake of the FOMC meeting suggesting that there are some risks that tariff pressures could stoke prices higher; Fed’s Collins (voter), for instance, said there were risks that core PCE inflation could rise to above 3% Y/Y by year-end. Still, any decent jobs data will likely be pounced on by US President Trump as an argument why the Fed should be in an easing cycle already, ramping up his recent criticism; any downside surprise will also likely be jumped on by the President as an argument why the Fed should be cutting rates. US ISM SERVICES (THU): The consensus expects the ISM services PMI to return to expansion in June, with analysts forecasting a rise to 50.3 from 49.9. As a comparison, the US flash services PMI business activity index eased to a two-month low of 53.1 in June from 53.7 in May. S&P Global said that service sector activity remained solid in June, even though output growth softened. The Services PMI indicated sustained expansion, with new business continuing to rise on strong domestic demand, though exports saw the steepest quarterly decline since late 2022. Input costs and selling prices in services increased again, largely due to tariffs, wages, financing, and fuel, though the pace of inflation eased from May. Backlogs rose at the fastest rate in over three years, prompting a five-month high in hiring, signalling robust demand pressures. However, business confidence in services fell, driven by uncertainty over government policy, particularly spending cuts. The survey compiler said that steady near-term growth is being underpinned by domestic demand, but subdued export performance and softer sentiment may weigh on momentum. Price pressures remain elevated, despite a slower inflation rate in services, implying limited scope for early Fed easing, and policymakers are likely to stay cautious. Copyright © 2025 Newsquawk Voice Limited. All rights reserved. Registered Office One Love Lane, London, EC2V 7JN, United Kingdom · Registered Number 12020774 · Registered in England and Wales. newsquawk.com · +44 20 3582 2778 · info@newsquawk.com Join Global Traders Association for FREE – Click HERE

The second half of 2025 begins not with optimism, but with fatigue. The global economy is not collapsing, but it is clearly bending under strain—economic, geopolitical, and institutional. What is taking shape is not a soft landing, but something more sobering: a slower, structurally weaker cycle in a more dangerous and fragile world. Three developments define this uneasy moment. First, is the looming end of postponement of the US so-called reciprocal tariffs. Second is China’s demonstration that it dominates the supply chain for rare earths and magnets with the same iron grip the US maintains over semiconductors. Washington may soon learn that China also controls key elements in drone production and the US gets an estimated 90% of its drones from China. Third is domestic developments in the US, including the reduction in the Supplementary Leverage Ratio, an expected endorsement of dollar stable coins that require Treasury backing, and continued efforts by the White House to drive monetary policy. Tariffs and Trade Turbulence The Trump administration’s tariff policy is a source of much angst and uncertainty. July 9 is ostensibly the end of the postponement of the “reciprocal tariffs”. The number of deals struck during the 90-day hiatus has been dismally low, and the decision to double the steel and aluminum tariffs during the period was unsettling. Moreover, the tariffs were broadened to include not only the raw materials but consumer products that contain the metals, such as dishwashers, dryers, and washing machines. Still, the administration has dangled the possibility of a longer postponement, and Treasury Secretary Bessent now holds out the possibility that everything will be resolved by early September. We are not convinced that the higher tariff regime will bring back manufacturing jobs to the US. To the extent that manufacturing capacity is expanded, it will likely be highly automated, including robotics, limiting scope for direct employment. The promised revival of blue-collar employment may prove to be little more than political theater. We find ourselves positioned much like our great-grandparents in the late 19th century, witnessing a fundamental economic transition—then from agriculture to industry, now from manufacturing to services. There were countless romantic and moralistic narratives crafted, mourning the loss of the yeoman farmer, the backbone of democracy, they claimed, who provided literal sustenance. There was, they argued, no more important work than theirs, and the closeness to nature and hard work was the essence of virtue. As agriculture output continued to rise even with fewer people employed on farms, so too with manufacturing. As its workforce has fallen, overall output has increased. The nomenclature of economic development turns precisely on this progression. Countries with large agricultural workforces are often associated with frontier economies or developing economies. Nations where a significant part of their labor employed in manufacturing is common in middle-tier countries. The vast majority of employment in high-income countries is in the service sector. Beyond the “reciprocal tariffs” that will come into effect, it is possible that the results of the US Commerce Department’s investigations into sectors identified as critical to national security will be announced. These investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act (which is the authorization for the tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos) cover semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, heavy trucks, timber and lumber, copper, commercial aircraft, and jet engines. The shock and uncertainty have forced many US major trading partners to adjust either monetary and/or fiscal policy to cushion the coming blow. The eurozone, UK, and Canadian economies appear to have slowed in Q2. On the other hand, the trade distortions that saw the US economy contract in Q1 likely exaggerated growth in Q2 to the upside. U.S. Slowdown and Fed's Dilemma A key measure that Federal Reserve Chair Powell often cites is final sales to private domestic purchasers, which has risen by at least 5% (annual nominal pace) for the past seven quarters. In the seven quarters before the pandemic, it averaged a little less than 4%. Nevertheless, we are concerned that the US economy has begun to slow sharply. US retail sales fell for the second consecutive month in May for the first time since the end of 2023. Real consumption through the first five months of the year is flat. This disappointing showing is taking place in the context of weaker consumer confidence, rising weekly jobless claims, the resumption of student loan servicing, and heightened household debt-stress levels. Industrial output fell in May for the second time in three months. The Federal Reserve last cut rates in December 2024. At the time, growth was stronger (Q3 GDP was 3.1% and Q4 GDP was 2.4) and inflation (personal consumption expenditure deflator) was higher (headline was at 2.6% in December and the core was at 2.8%). Chair Powell explained that the tariffs are considerably higher than any one anticipated. Fed officials see a substantial risk that of a meaningful rise in inflation. Target and Walmart, for example, have warned of higher prices soon. We think that the Fed’s next cut will likely be in September. Geopolitical Flashpoints and Economic Weaponization Israel decimated Iran’s proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, and Tehran’s failure to comply with the UN watchdog limiting its uranium enrichment triggered a new phase in the conflict. Israel’s quickly secured air superiority and proceeded to inflict much damage to Tehran's power project capability. There are different assessments of how long the attack, including the US "bunker-buster bombs" setback Iran's nuclear program but there seems to a loose agreement that it is at least a few years. At the same time, Russia's war on Ukraine, and the vulnerability of Iran demonstrated by Israel, who is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, will likely make them even more desirable. In this context, and seeing the way North Korea is treated, incentives to possess nuclear weapons have increased. Non-proliferation has been undermined. China demonstrated its ability to weaponize the rare earths and magnets supply chain in a similar way the US has done in semiconductor technology. Yet, it is not symmetrical. The White House crypto and AI czar David Sachs warned that China figured out ways around the chip curbs, and that it may be only two years behind the US chip design capabilities. By some estimates, the US is 10-15 years behind China in the technology to process rare earths and 15-20 years behind China in industrial-scale rare earth magnet manufacturing and ecosystem maturity. Confirmation of the understanding reached in London, China's rare earth and magnet shipments to the US appear set to resume. The US will retract some of the measures it announced since the meeting in Geneva in May, including control of ethane, a key feedstock for modern plastics, for which the US dominates. Half of US ethane exports go to China, which is about 250k barrels a day. Arguably more than developments in the capital markets, the domination of various supply chains illustrates changing power dynamics. China first weaponized rare earths when it banned exports to Japan over a fishing trawler dispute in 2010. Between 2023 and 2025, China began imposing export restrictions of strategic materials to the United States, including gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, and tungsten. However, the “Sputnik moment” (and there have been several recently, including Deep Seek AI breakthrough) came when auto assembly lines in the US and Europe were forced to stop due to the lack of rare earth magnets. Moreover, the US may soon be reminded that China dominates key elements of drone production. It accounts for 70-80% of the world's commercial drones and as much as 90% of America's. After the US sold arms to Taiwan last year, Beijing sanctioned US manufacturer of drones, denying it the ability to source parts in China. Independence of the Federal Reserve The Trump administration has not only transformed the international economic and military discussions, but he is challenging domestic norms as well. The one that the markets are most sensitive to is the independence of the Federal Reserve. Two Fed governors, both of whom were appointed, indicated that a July rate cut may be appropriate. A few days later, President Trump indicated he was considering nominating Chair Powell's replacement in September or October. Since Powell's term does not end until next May, such an early nomination is widely seen as a tactic to add pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. We suspect it could backfire. There have been very few dissents under Powell's leadership, including by nominations made during Trump's first term. A nominee could reveal how isolated he/she is if they were to argue against a position that carried the Fed unanimously or with an overwhelming majority. Yet, with a September rate cut a high probability scenario, an appointment shortly before the meeting would make for poor optics, which may translate into a steeper curve. It might not be offset by the planned reduction in the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ostensibly freeing up $210 bln of capital at the largest banks) or the regulations intended for stable coins backed by the dollar (US Treasuries). This is especially true of the rising supply necessitated by the growing deficit. The OECD estimates the shortfall will reach 7.5% of GDP this year and 8.1% of GDP next year. It averaged 6.6% in 2023 and 2024. Bannockburn’s World Currency Index As the US dollar has trended lower, Bannockburn's World Currency Index, a GDP-weighted basket of the currencies of the largest 12 economies, which are split between high-income and developing countries, has trended higher. It is reached its best level since last September. BWCI bottomed in early January near 87.70 and was approaching 92.00 in late June. It has pushed above the down trendline drawn off the 2023 highs and came in around 91.20 when it was penetrated. It looks poised to rise toward 93.00 in near-term and 95.00. in the slightly longer-term. Among the G10 currencies, the euro fared best, with a nearly 3.3% rise. It has the highest weighting after the dollar and Chinese yuan at about 18.6%. Sterling rose by about 1.9% and the Australian dollar by 1.6%. Together they account for a little more than 6% of the BWCI. The yen was the only G10 currency to have fallen against the dollar -0.5%). It has a 5% weight. For the index as a whole, the Brazilian real's 4.4% gain was the best, but its weighting is a modest 2.6%. The Russian ruble joined the yen as the only components not to have gained on the dollar in June. It fell 1.7%. The Chinese yuan, which has a 21.4% weight in the index, rose by a modest 0.4%. The Indian rupee, which makes up 4.3% of the BWCI, eked out a 0.1% gain. The Mexican peso rose by about 3% and the South Korean won gained 1.6%. The two combined account for a little more than 4% of the index. U.S. Dollar: Dollar sentiment remains poor, and positioning in the futures market and bank surveys of asset managers show that the adjustment is well advanced. Real sector data are surprising on the downside, though Q2 GDP, which will be reported a few hours before the FOMC meeting concludes on July 30 will likely be distorted in a similar but opposite way that Q1 GDP. We have been expecting the labor market and economy to begin a more palpable deterioration around midyear, and it appears to be at hand. The nearly real-time weekly jobless claims have risen and the four-week moving average rise to its highest level since August 2023 and continuing claims are approaching the two million mark, a level not have not seen since November 2021. June nonfarm payrolls (July 3) look soft, and job growth likely slowed for the second consecutive month. Assuming about a 110k increase in June, the monthly average in H1 25 would be about 122k, about a quarter less than the H1 24 average. The unemployment rate is likely to rise to a new post-pandemic high of 4.3%. The groundwork for a September rate cut may be laid. There is a risk of a dissent at this month’s meeting. The dollar has generally weakened when tariffs are threatened or imposed. It is not yet clear what happens on July 9 when the postponement of the "reciprocal tariffs" ends. And there have been hints that the postponement may be extended for at least a couple of months. Euro: The euro was among the strongest G10 currencies in June, rising by about 3.3%, which brought the year-to-date appreciation to almost 13.2%. The ECB's easing cycle, which began last June, is likely to pause for the next several months, with the deposit rate at 2.0%, slightly above what is estimated to be the neutral rate. The swaps market is discounting about an 85% chance of another cut toward the end of the year. Yet, the economy appears to have slowed considerably after the 0.6% quarter-over-quarter expansion in Q1 25, which was the strongest since Q2 22. Indeed, the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for the regional economy to have stagnated, and the outlook for Q3 is only marginally better. If sustained, the rise in oil prices could lift eurozone inflation, and this would have the effect of lowering real rates in the eurozone. We have suggested the euro could toward $1.20 by the end of the year, which may prove to be conservative. (As of June 27, indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses) Spot: $1.1718 ($1.1345) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.1635 ($1.1300) One-month forward: $1.1743 ($1.1370) One-month implied vol: 8.3% (7.9%) Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen was the only G10 currencies to have fallen against the dollar in June even though the loss was minor (~0.55%). With the economy likely to have eked out minor growth in Q2 after contracting by 0.2% (annualized pace) in Q1, and the shock of the US tariffs (Japan's auto sector accounts for an estimated 10% of GDP and more than 8% of the workforce), the Bank of Japan sounds somewhat less hawkish. The market recognizes that the BOJ's attempt to normalize monetary policy is stalling. The swaps market now prices in 14 bp higher rates at the end of the year than the current 0.50% target. This is down from 30 bp at the end of Q1 25. Meanwhile, to help take pressure off the long-end of the Japanese yield curve, the BOJ announced it will slow the run-off of maturing bonds from its portfolio starting in the next fiscal year (April 2026) and the Ministry of Finance plans on reducing the issues of 20-40 year bonds and boost shorter-end issuance and bills to compensate. The exchange rate's sensitivity to the changes in the US 10-year yield reached a two-year low in May (rolling 30-day correlation <0.10) but rebounded in recent weeks is now near 0.50. Japan goes to the polls on July 19 to elect have of the House of Councillors (upper house). A poor showing by the Liberal Democrats will boost the chances that Prime Minister Ishiba faces a leadership challenge later this year. Rice prices have more than doubled this year (boosting CPI by about 0.6%) and easing the problem could help boost the profile of Shinjiro Koizumi, who became the agricultural minister in May, is the former prime minister's son. Spot: JPY144.65 (JPY144.00) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: JPY143.65 (JPY144.80) One-month forward: JPY144.15 (JPY143.55). One-month implied vol: 10% (11.1%) British Pound: Sterling extended its advance against the US dollar, rising for the fifth consecutive month, matching the longest advance since 2003/2004. In the first six months of the year, sterling appreciated by about 9.6%. The weak US dollar environment masks the underlying vulnerability of sterling. The economy is soft in Q2 after leading the G7 with a 0.7% quarter-over-quarter expansion in Q1 24. The slowdown in the labor market is accelerating. The number of employees payrolled fell by almost 200k in the three months through May compared with a loss of nearly 51k in the previous three months. The economy contracted by 0.3% in April (-0.1%) expected. Manufacturing output fell by 0.9% in April, which was the third decline in four months. The 0.4% decline in the index of services matched the largest since the end of 2022. The weakness appears to have carried into May, when retail sales increased by 2.7% in volume terms, more than five-times greater than the decline projected in the Bloomberg survey. The Bank of England held its base rate steady at 4.25%, but the divided Monetary Policy Committee (6-3) in the context of the disappointing data boosted confidence of a cut at the next meeting in August. The swaps market has another cut discounted in Q4. Leaving aside short-term countertrend moves, over the next six-to-twelve months, a move into the $1.4000-$1.4200 area seems reasonable. The OECD estimates fair-value (purchasing power parity) is $1.47. Spot: $1.3715 ($1.3460) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.3635 ($1.3300) One-month forward: $1.3720 ($1.3465) One-month implied vol: 7.6% (7.6%) Canadian Dollar: The US dollar has trended lower against the Canadian dollar snice spiking to almost CAD1.48 in early February. It recorded a 10-month low near CAD1.3540 in mid-June. The reactive bounce was capped at CAD1.3800. The next important technical target is the CAD1.3400 area. The driving force has been the US dollar's broad decline, and the correlation of changes in the Canadian dollar's exchange rate and the Dollar Index is near an 18-month high above 0.70. The Bank of Canada has front-loaded the rate cuts, though there may still be scope another but not until Q4, according to the swaps market. Economists in Bloomberg's survey are concerned that the impact of the US tariffs is only beginning to be evident, and an economic contraction could encourage the central bank to cut rates twice to a terminal rate of 2.25%. Meanwhile, Canada established a new tariff-quota to limit imports of steel from countries with which it does not have a trade agreement. It has also threatened to increase tariffs on US steel and aluminum on July 21 if trade talks with the US stall. Spot: CAD1.3690 (CAD 1.3740) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CAD1.3695 (CAD1.3900) One-month forward: CAD1.3670 (CAD1.3720) One-month implied vol: 6.1% (6.1%) Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar reached a seven-month high, slightly above $0.6560 in late June. It appreciated by about 1.6% in June, but with a four-month advance, it is up almost 5.6% this year, the least after the Canadian dollar's 5.3% gain, among the G10. In the coming months, a $0.6800 target seems reasonable. The Reserve Bank of Australia began an easing cycle in February and cut rates in May. The cash target rate is 3.85%. The derivatives market is discounting around a 95% chance of a rate cut at the July 8 meeting, and two more this year. This is to say that the RBA is seen one of the most aggressive G10 central bank in H2 25. The market expects another cut in early 2026. The US and Australia's free-trade agreement has been in place since early 2005 and the US ran a goods surplus with Australia of about $18 bln in 2024. Australia was not given an added "reciprocal tariff" but is subject to the 10% universal tariff and the sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, light vehicles, and parts. Lastly, we note that the Trump administration is reviewing the US commitment under the 2021 AUKUS agreement. The risk seems to be growing that the US seeks to modify or abrogate the agreement ostensibly because of the US own military needs. Spot: $0.6530 ($0.6395) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $0.6520 ($0.6350) One-month forward: $0.6535 ($0.6400) One-month implied vol: 10.1% (11.0%) Mexican Peso: The dollar was sold to its lowest level against the peso since last August. It reached almost MXXN18.81, the day after the central bank delivered its fourth consecutive 50 bp rate cut on June 26. The decision to cut by a half-point was taken despite inflation rising above the upper end of the target range of 4%. The central bank is more concerned about economic weakness. The economy contracted by 0.6% (quarter-over-quarter) in Q4 24 before rebounding by 0.2% in Q1 25. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 0.1% contraction in Q2 25. The pressure on Mexico from shift in US policy is profound. Onshoring, for example, challenges the near- and friend-shoring, which has helped Mexico modernize. The US is threatening to tax worker remittances sent by non-citizens. Worker remittances are the top source of hard currency inflow to Mexico, exceeding foreign direct investment, tourism, and oil exports. The long peso, short dollar trades, especially in the levered community, remains popular. In the futures market, non-commercials (speculators) have had one of the largest net long peso positions since last August. Spot: MXN18.8240 (MXN19.4375) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: MXN19.10 (MXN19.5285) One-month forward: MXN18.89 (MXN19.5125) One-month implied vol: 9.6% (10.6%) Chinese Yuan: Beijing maintains a firm hand on the yuan's exchange rate. In June, the dollar traded in around a 0.6% range against the yuan (~CNY7.1575-CNY7.20) and not quite twice as much against the offshore yuan (~CNH7.1525-CNH7.2240). The onshore yuan has appreciated by an inconsequential 1.75% against the dollar so far this year, and offshore yuan has risen by around 2.3%. Shadowing the dollar means the yuan has depreciated against the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. The People's Bank of China continues to move the daily dollar reference rate more than they did at the start of the year. By setting the reference rate lower, the PBOC effectively lowers the dollar's cap. However, we suspect that with deflationary forces still gripping the economy, there may limited appetite for further yuan appreciation against the dollar. At the same time, the economy seems to be struggling to sustain forward momentum, and additional stimulus may be necessary. The most officials may be prepared to do is moderate the pace of the dollar's decline and yuan's appreciation; not reverse it. Spot: CNY7.1725 (CNY7.1990) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CNY7.1830 (CNY7.2500) One-month forward: CNY7.1475 (CNY7.1725) One-month implied vol: 4.8% (4.6%) Disclaimer