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📉 Dólar em queda: Índice DXY atinge menor nível desde março de 2022 Enfraquecimento do dólar reflete expectativas de corte de juros, tensões geopolíticas e mudanças no fluxo global de capitais Por Igor Pereira | Analista de Mercado – ExpertFX School O Índice Dólar (DXY) — que mede o valor do dólar americano frente a uma cesta de moedas fortes (euro, iene, libra, franco suíço, dólar canadense e coroa sueca) — despencou para o nível mais baixo desde março de 2022, gerando alerta entre investidores globais e analistas macroeconômicos. Este movimento acende discussões importantes sobre os fundamentos do dólar, o comportamento dos bancos centrais, e os possíveis impactos sobre ativos como ouro (XAU/USD), commodities, moedas emergentes e Bitcoin. 📊 Causas da Queda do DXY A desvalorização recente do dólar é impulsionada por três vetores principais: 1. 🏦 Expectativa de Corte de Juros pelo Federal Reserve As declarações recentes do presidente do Fed, Jerome Powell, indicam que o banco central está em modo de espera e observação, mas pode cortar juros antes do esperado caso a inflação tarifária não se materialize. Com o mercado precificando dois cortes até dezembro, os rendimentos dos Treasuries vêm caindo, o que reduz a atratividade do dólar frente a outras moedas. 2. 🌍 Tensões Geopolíticas e Fiscal Dominance Com os conflitos no Oriente Médio se intensificando e os EUA enfrentando crescentes pressões fiscais, cresce o receio de que o país esteja caminhando para um regime de "dominância fiscal", no qual o Fed se vê forçado a manter juros baixos para viabilizar o financiamento da dívida pública. A campanha pública de Donald Trump contra Jerome Powell e os recentes comentários agressivos sobre a independência do Fed também contribuem para aumentar o prêmio de risco político embutido no dólar. 3. 🪙 Desdolarização e Fluxos Internacionais Movimentos recentes de venda de Treasuries por China e Japão, além de apelos na Europa para repatriar reservas de ouro armazenadas nos EUA, reforçam a tendência estrutural de diversificação cambial. A correlação entre o enfraquecimento do dólar e a alta do ouro (atualmente em $3.349) mostra que investidores institucionais estão buscando hedges contra a deterioração da moeda americana. 💥 Impactos nos Mercados Ativo Impacto Esperado Ouro (XAU/USD) Forte impulso altista devido à fuga do dólar Euro (EUR/USD) Ganha força relativa com a fraqueza do DXY Moedas emergentes Valorização temporária frente ao USD Commodities (petróleo, cobre) Alta devido ao efeito dólar fraco Bitcoin (BTC) Beneficiado como hedge não soberano 📌 O que esperar? O dólar pode continuar em trajetória de enfraquecimento caso: A inflação tarifária não se materialize nos próximos meses; O mercado de trabalho continue desacelerando; O Fed confirme cortes na taxa básica já no segundo semestre; A instabilidade geopolítica siga elevando a demanda por ativos reais. Entretanto, um eventual choque de oferta de petróleo, escalada militar no Oriente Médio ou reversão hawkish do Fed poderiam reverter parte desse movimento. 🧠 Conclusão do analista 📲 Para mais atualizações sobre política monetária, macroeconomia e mercados globais, continue acompanhando o site ExpertFX School e o Clube ExpertFX.

The recent two-day risk-on rally in the US stock market showed signs of fatigue as attention turns to upcoming economic data, Fed policy guidance, and tariff-related developments. Market participants are now eyeing the expiration of the White House’s 90-day pause on reciprocal global tariffs (excluding China), set for 9 July. close Fig 2: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 26 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig 2: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 26 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) have staged a bullish breakout from a 7-week “Ascending Triangle” range configuration, previously in place since 13 May 2025 that indicates the start of a potential multi-week impulsive up move sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since 7 April 2025 low. The hourly RSI momentum indicator has reached an extreme overbought level of 81.20, the highest since 28 May 2025, which suggests that the Japan 225 CFD Index may stage a minor pull-back at this juncture before resuming its bullish impulsive up move. Watch the intermediate support at 39,145 and the 38,850 key short-term pivotal support to hold the minor pull-back movements with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 39,830, and 40,280 (15 October/30 December 2024 swing high areas (see Fig 2). On the flip side, failure to hold above 38,850 invalidates the bullish breakout scenario for the continuation of the choppy corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 38,600 and 38,150/38,035 (also the 20-day and 200-day moving averages). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

On-chain data shows new investors have been coming into Chainlink (LINK) as the MVRV Ratio signals a potential long-term opportunity for the asset. Chainlink Has Seen Its Total Holder Count Reach A New High In a new post on X, the analytics firm Santiment has discussed about the latest trend in the Total Amount of Holders metric for Chainlink. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the total number of addresses on the LINK network that are carrying some non-zero balance. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the value of the metric has changed during the past year. As displayed in the graph, the Total Amount of Holders observed an inflection point earlier this year and has since been climbing up at a notable rate. This suggests that new non-empty wallets are popping up on the network. This kind of trend can arise due to a number of reasons. Fresh investors coming into the space or old ones who sold before making a return naturally contribute to an increase in the indicator. Another factor could be existing users creating new wallets to distribute their holdings or for privacy purposes. In general, all of these could be assumed to be occurring simultaneously to a degree whenever the Total Amount of Holders goes up. As such, the recent uptrend in the metric could indicate that some net adoption (that is, the influx of new investors) has steadily been taking place for Chainlink. Over the past month, 7,903 new non-zero balance addresses have joined the chain, bringing the Total Amount of Holders to a fresh all-time high (ATH) of 769,380. In the same chart, the analytics firm has also attached the data of another indicator: the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This metric basically compares how the value held by the BTC investors (the market cap) compares against the value put in by them (the realized cap). In other words, the indicator tells us about the profit-loss balance of the holders. Here, the version of the MVRV Ratio that’s relevant is the 365-day version, capturing the situation of the investors who bought their coins within the past year. From the graph, it’s visible that the 1-year MVRV Ratio of Chainlink is currently sitting at a negative 17.3%, an indication that these traders are, on average, holding a loss of 17.3%. Generally, however, investors being underwater isn’t actually a bad thing for the cryptocurrency. This is because holders in profit are the ones more likely to participate in selling. As such, Santiment notes that the trend in the 365-day MVRV Ratio could suggest the asset’s “long-term investing timeframe is in an opportunity zone.” LINK Price At the time of writing, Chainlink is trading around $13.15, up more than 2% in the last seven days.

Dogecoin started a fresh increase above the $0.1550 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating and might aim for a move above $0.1680. DOGE price started a fresh increase above the $0.150 and $0.1550 levels. The price is trading above the $0.160 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key rising channel forming with resistance at $0.1680 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start a fresh decline if it stays below the $0.180 zone. Dogecoin Price Faces Resistance Dogecoin price started a fresh increase above the $0.1420 zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE was able to climb above the $0.150 and $0.1550 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above the $0.1620 resistance. A high was formed at $0.1677 and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.1427 swing low to the $0.1677 high. Dogecoin price is now trading above the $0.160 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.1680 level. There is also a key rising channel forming with resistance at $0.1680 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.1720 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.1750 level. A close above the $0.1750 resistance might send the price toward the $0.180 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.200 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.2120. Another Decline In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.1680 level, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.1620 level. The next major support is near the $0.1550 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.1427 swing low to the $0.1677 high. The main support sits at $0.1550. If there is a downside break below the $0.1550 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might decline toward the $0.1420 level or even $0.1350 in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.1620 and $0.1550. Major Resistance Levels – $0.1680 and $0.1800.

Bitcoin has resumed its upward movement, maintaining strength above the $107,000 level as market momentum builds toward the asset’s recent all-time high above $111,000. As of this writing, BTC is trading at $107,242, reflecting a 1.3% gain over the past 24 hours and a 2.7% rise in the past week. The market’s rebound comes after a brief dip last weekend, suggesting that investor confidence remains resilient heading into the next potential leg up. Contributing to the bullish outlook, CryptoQuant analyst İbrahim COŞAR recently highlighted Bitcoin’s successful reclaim of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which he described as a key level to track for short-term price trends. Bitcoin Reclaims Key Technical Level, Eyes $120K Potential According to COŞAR, the 50-day EMA often acts as dynamic support during corrections, and regaining this level typically precedes a price rally. In past cycles, similar conditions have led to gains between 10% to 20% shortly after the level was reclaimed. COŞAR further noted that Bitcoin’s reclaim of the 50-day EMA occurred after a short-lived breakdown, which was quickly reversed with three consecutive daily closes above the level. This technical setup mirrors previous instances that preceded substantial upward moves. COŞAR also cautioned that while the technical structure favors continued gains, geopolitical uncertainties, especially involving the US, Israel, and Iran, could introduce sudden volatility. As a result, he advised market participants to avoid leveraged positions in the short term and remain prepared for potential price swings. COŞAR wrote: That said, geopolitical developments—particularly any positive or negative news involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran—could trigger sudden volatility in BTC’s price. Please avoid using leverage during this period and remain cautious in the face of potential market swings. Further Into Technicals: Analyst Points to Bullish Flag Adding to the conversation, independent crypto analyst Captain Faibik suggested that Bitcoin’s price pattern is forming a bullish flag, a common continuation pattern in technical analysis. According to Faibik, while the structure indicates a likely breakout, a final corrective dip to the $97,000–$98,000 range may occur before upward momentum resumes. He emphasized that a confirmed breakout above the $108,000 resistance would be a key signal, potentially setting the stage for a mid-term target of $130,000. Notably, while short-term price forecasts vary, both analysts agree on the broader direction: Bitcoin remains in a bullish phase supported by technical trends. These insights align with broader market sentiment, including the increased inflow from institutional investors. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

XRP price started a fresh increase from the $2.150 zone. The price is consolidating gains and might aim for a move above the $2.220 zone. XRP price started a fresh increase above the $2.150 zone. The price is now trading above $2.150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $2.1320 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it closes above the $2.220 resistance zone. XRP Price Eyes Upside Break XRP price remained supported and started a fresh increase above the $2.050 zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price recovered above the $2.080 and $2.120 resistance levels. The pair even cleared the $2.180 resistance and recently spiked above the $2.220 zone. A high was formed at $2.2294 and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.910 swing low to the $2.2294 high. The price is now trading above $2.180 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $2.1320 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.220 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.250 level. The next resistance is $2.320. A clear move above the $2.320 resistance might send the price toward the $2.40 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.480 resistance or even $2.50 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be $2.550. Downside Correction? If XRP fails to clear the $2.220 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.150 level. The next major support is near the $2.1320 level and the trend line. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.1320 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $2.050 support or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.910 swing low to the $2.2294 high. The next major support sits near the $2.00 zone. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.150 and $2.1320. Major Resistance Levels – $2.220 and $2.250.

Following a quick drop to nearly $98,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered most of its recent losses and is now trading above $107,000 at the time of writing. Fresh on-chain data suggests that the short-term holder (STH) floor for BTC has been steadily rising toward the $100,000 level. Bitcoin STH Floor Approaching $100,000 According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor unchained, Bitcoin’s STH Realized Price has been making its slow grind up toward the psychologically important $100,000 level. Notably, the analyst had earlier dubbed this metric as the “fault line” to watch. For the uninitiated, the STH Realized Price represents the average price at which all Bitcoin held for less than 155 days was acquired. It acts as both a key psychological and technical support level. When the market price stays above it, STH are in profit and more confident, whereas if it falls below, fear and selling pressure often increase. Currently, the STH Realized Price hovers around $98,000. The analyst notes that each $500 rise in the STH Realized Price effectively resets the “new buyers’ comfort floor.” As this metric nears six figures, the mental stop-loss for newer investors also moves upward. The following chart illustrates two recent instances where BTC bounced sharply after touching the blue STH Realized Price line. This price action suggests a bullish structure, where selling pressure diminishes as soon as BTC revisits its average cost basis. Meanwhile, the premium – the difference between BTC’s spot price and STH Realized Price – currently hovers around 7.2%. A shrinking premium, typically under 10%, has historically signalled reduced market froth and often preceded the next leg up once open interest began to rebuild. On the long-term side, the long-term holder (LTH) Realized Price remains largely unchanged at $32,000, roughly one-third of the STH Realized Price. The analyst observes that these long-term coins are likely held in cold storage, indicating “strong hands” with little incentive to sell. They concluded: The blue line is climbing relentlessly; as long as BTC lives above it, the prevailing tide is still higher-lows, higher-highs. Lose it on a daily close, and we get our first real gut-check since April – otherwise the bull engine is merely cooling its cylinders. Experts Predict New High For BTC As BTC’s STH Realized Price continues to surge higher – resulting in a higher floor price for the digital asset – several crypto experts seem to agree that the cryptocurrency may soon reach a new all-time high (ATH) in the coming months. For instance, Bitcoin is forming a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on the three-day chart, eyeing a potential ATH of as high as $150,000. At press time, BTC trades at $107,711, up 2.1% in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,350 zone. ETH is now showing positive signs and might aim for a move above the $2,550 zone. Ethereum started a fresh upward move above the $2,320 level. The price is trading above $2,350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $2,440 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it settles above the $2,550 resistance zone in the near term. Ethereum Price Eyes More Gains Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,250 support level, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to clear the $2,320 and $2,350 resistance levels to move into a positive zone. The bulls even pushed the price above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,568 swing high to the $2,115 low. The price is now facing hurdles near the $2,500 zone. Ethereum price is now trading above $2,450 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. The price is now stuck near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,568 swing high to the $2,115 low. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $2,480 level. The next key resistance is near the $2,500 level. The first major resistance is near the $2,550 level. A clear move above the $2,550 resistance might send the price toward the $2,600 resistance. An upside break above the $2,600 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,720 resistance zone or even $2,800 in the near term. Another Drop In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,550 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,440 level and the trend line. The first major support sits near the $2,390 zone. A clear move below the $2,390 support might push the price toward the $2,310 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,220 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $2,150. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $2,310 Major Resistance Level – $2,550

Ethereum has experienced a strong comeback after weeks of uncertainty and bearish momentum. Following a sharp breakdown below its long-standing consolidation range, ETH found support near the $2,100 level and has since surged 15% from Sunday’s low. The move comes amid improving market sentiment after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran helped ease geopolitical tensions, while broader macroeconomic conditions remain in flux. This recent bounce has placed Ethereum back into a critical technical zone, where bulls are once again attempting to reclaim control. After spending much of May and June in a sideways range, ETH is showing signs of renewed strength, fueling optimism that the next decisive move could be to the upside. Top analyst Mister Crypto shared a bullish technical outlook, highlighting that Ethereum is getting ready for a breakout. According to his view, the current price structure and momentum suggest ETH may be preparing to challenge previous resistance levels and enter a new phase of expansion. With on-chain activity starting to pick up and broader market confidence slowly returning, Ethereum could be positioning itself as the key altcoin to lead a potential rally in the coming weeks. Ethereum Reclaims Strength Ethereum has surged more than 15% from Sunday’s lows, recovering from sharp losses triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran sent a wave of relief through global markets, with ETH leading the charge among major altcoins. After briefly losing key support levels, bulls are regaining momentum as Ethereum reclaims price levels last seen before the breakdown. This rebound marks a crucial moment for ETH, as it tests the strength of current market sentiment. While macroeconomic uncertainty continues—driven by growing fears of a U.S. recession, rising bond yields, and a cautious Federal Reserve—Ethereum appears to be consolidating for a potential breakout. The broader crypto market remains on edge, with altcoins underperforming Bitcoin, and many investors watching Ethereum closely as the likely catalyst for the long-awaited altseason. According to Mister Crypto, Ethereum is now preparing for a breakout above the $2,800 resistance. This level represents a major psychological and structural barrier, and a decisive move beyond it could redefine ETH’s trajectory for the remainder of the year. Volume is returning, and on-chain data shows rising confidence from long-term holders, signaling a potential shift in trend. If bulls succeed in pushing ETH past this zone, it could trigger renewed interest across the altcoin market and usher in a wave of fresh capital. As Ethereum flirts with this breakout level, its price action in the coming days may very well set the tone for the next phase of the crypto cycle. ETH Testing Resistance After 15% Surge Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading near $2,414 after rebounding sharply from the $2,100 zone, a level revisited last Sunday during heightened geopolitical tensions. The 8-hour chart shows a clean V-shaped recovery, with bulls pushing the price through the 200 SMA ($2,326), reclaiming short-term control. Volume surged on the way up, confirming strong buying interest during the bounce. However, ETH now faces a test near the $2,450–$2,500 zone, where the 50 and 100 SMAs converge. These moving averages, currently acting as resistance, previously played a key role during Ethereum’s consolidation in early June. A successful breakout above this range would open the door to a retest of the $2,700–$2,800 levels, as suggested by top analysts like Mister Crypto. For now, price action remains in a neutral consolidation range with a slight bullish tilt. If Ethereum holds above the 200 SMA while building support above $2,400, the bullish case strengthens. However, failure to break above $2,500 could trigger another pullback toward the $2,300 level. The next few sessions will be crucial to determine whether ETH continues its breakout attempt or enters another phase of sideways consolidation amid broader market uncertainty. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $105,500 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for a move above the $108,000 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $105,500 zone. The price is trading above $105,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $107,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $106,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes More Gains Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $103,500 zone. BTC gained pace and was able to climb above the $104,200 and $105,500 levels to enter a positive zone. The bulls pushed the price above the $106,500 resistance and the price tested the $108,200 zone. A high was formed at $108,165 and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $98,272 swing low to the $108,165 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $106,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $107,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $108,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $108,200 level or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downward move from the $106,470 swing high to the $98,276 low. A close above the $108,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $110,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $112,000 level. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $108,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $107,400 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $105,500 level. The next support is now near the $104,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $103,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,200, below which BTC might gain bearish momentum. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $107,400, followed by $105,500. Major Resistance Levels – $108,500 and $110,000.

Ethereum is once again aligning with the broader crypto market recovery as its price begins to reclaim ground lost during recent downturns. After briefly dropping to a local low of $2,177 over the weekend, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has climbed back above $2,400. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at approximately $2,412, though it still reflects a 2.9% loss over the past week and a 2.4% dip over the last two weeks. Amid this price performance, a CryptoQuant analyst has assessed Ethereum’s interaction with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a commonly used trend indicator, and came up with an outlook on where the asset is likely headed. Ethereum Key Resistance Levels and Historical Price Patterns According to a recent post by CryptoQuant contributor İbrahim COŞAR, Ethereum is approaching a pivotal moment that could define its next price trajectory. The analyst believes that a decisive break above the 50-day EMA could propel ETH to the $2,800 level, with a further push toward $4,000 if resistance levels are breached. In his analysis, İbrahim COŞAR emphasizes that Ethereum must close consistently above the $2,500–$2,600 range to confirm a breakout. Past data suggests that ETH has previously moved sharply after breaking out of similar consolidation zones. Specifically, in an earlier phase, Ethereum oscillated between $2,100 and $2,800 before moving strongly to $4,000. A similar move could unfold if ETH can surpass the $2,800 resistance in the current market cycle. COŞAR also noted that Ethereum’s 50-week EMA remains a longer-term resistance barrier. A breach of this technical ceiling, combined with strong daily closes above short-term resistance levels, could indicate the beginning of a more aggressive upward trend. However, the analyst advised caution, pointing out that macroeconomic and geopolitical events, particularly those involving the US, Israel, and Iran, could trigger market volatility. He recommended avoiding excessive leverage during such periods. Additional Technical Perspectives Point to Further Gains Javon Marks, another crypto market analyst, presented a more aggressive outlook for Ethereum. In a recent post, Marks observed that Ethereum has broken above a descending trend line, which historically aligns with upward price continuation. He projected that Ethereum could see an 81% gain to reach a target price of $4,811.71. Furthermore, if momentum builds, an additional rally could extend gains by another 77%, pushing prices toward $8,557.68. These projections are not guaranteed, but they highlight growing optimism in Ethereum’s market structure, especially among traders who base strategies on technical chart formations. Despite recent volatility, the broader sentiment appears to favor a continuation of the upward trend, provided critical resistance levels are overcome and no major disruptive events emerge. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

In accordance with recent statistics, Dogwifhat (WIF) jumped 24% in the past 24 hours, moving above $0.85 as Bitcoin broke above $107,000. Traders observed a quick turnaround from levels below $0.72. Active wallets handling WIF jumped by 20%, and daily volume hit over $70 million. All those actions brought the Solana meme coin to within range of the $1.00 mark. Network Activity Shoots Up Based on reports, the Dogwifhat network saw a jump in trading volume to over $700 million in the past two days. That level of activity is rare for a token ranked 45th by market cap at about $1.75 billion. It now sits behind Dogecoin and Shiba Inu but outpaces fellow Solana names like FLOKI, PEPE and BONK. A sharp reversal off the $0.70 low got traders’ attention before the current uptick. Community Funds Billboards And Merch As per community posts, Dogwifhat holders have contributed funds for attention-grabbing billboards and special merchandise drops. Grassroots campaigns rolled out on social media channels, fueling renewed interest. That momentum helped to maintain volume levels over $70 million a day and continued to keep wallet counts rising. Support at $0.81 held firm when the rally began, giving buyers confidence. Technical Breakout Hints At More Gains Based on chart analysis, WIF broke out of a descending wedge on the 4-hour chart. That pattern formed over the past week before prices cleared the $0.83 level on higher trading volume. The Relative Strength Index sits near 60, below overbought territory, suggesting there’s still room to run. Traders now eye a move to $0.90, the next Fibonacci retracement. A push past $1.00 would be the strongest signal yet. Bitcoin And Solana Link Remains Strong According to market watchers, WIF’s fate is tied to Bitcoin and the wider Solana ecosystem. Maintaining Bitcoin above $105,000 will be crucial for keeping momentum. Any pullback could force WIF back toward support at $0.77 or even the recent floor at $0.71. At the same time, new exchange listings or partnership news could stoke another leg higher. Risk Management Key For Traders According to trading guides, meme coins such as WIF bear large swings. Smart traders are encouraged to place tight stops and control position sizes. A retreat below $0.80 would be a call to exercise caution. In case support fails, prices can test the lower bands once again. But if the coin holds ground, a run at $1.00 could spark fresh buying. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

After a week of volatile price action, Bitcoin has once again returned to familiar territory around the $106,000 price level. However, on-chain data shows that investors are still cautious, with the crypto Fear & Greed Index now in the neutral zone. On the other hand, technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart shows that its price behavior has completed a significant correction, one that’s paving the way for a major rally to $130,000. Bitcoin’s Wave 2 Correction Might Be Complete According to XForceGlobal, a crypto analyst who posted a detailed Elliott Wave chart on the social platform X, Bitcoin’s recent correction fits neatly within a completed WXY pattern. The second wave, which started following the all-time high of $111,814 on May 22 and formed the corrective structure, has now retraced into the expected Fibonacci range between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels. Notably, the ideal minimum target for this correction move was in the $90,000 region, and Bitcoin fulfilled that condition with the pullback to just under $98,200 over the weekend. The most important thing was in preserving the macro wave structure. Instead of drawing out a deeper pullback into the 0.618 to 0.886 Fibonacci levels, which is often characteristic of bear market retracements, the analysis maintains the idea that this was a wave 2 correction within a larger bullish impulse. This distinction is important. If the WXY correction is indeed complete and wave 2 has concluded, the next logical move in the Elliott Wave sequence is a third wave advance. According to Elliott Wave analysis, the third wave is often the most explosive in terms of price expansion. Its outcome could therefore push the price of Bitcoin to new heights that are significantly higher than its most recent all-time high. Why $130,000 Is A Realistic Target For Bitcoin The analyst’s technical projection on Bitcoin’s 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart shows an expected wave 3 trajectory extending beyond $111,800, with an expansion arrow reaching up above $130,000. This is the expansion move and is based on a similar projection of Wave 1. In the accompanying chart, the analyst marks the key pivot zone between $98,000 and $102,000 as the Wave C termination area. If this zone indeed marks the completion of the second wave, the next movement would require validation through the formation of a clear 1-2 structure within Wave 3. This means that confirmation of the bullish count also depends on the price making a new local high above the current range and then pulling back without breaching the recent lows. If that structure plays out, then the market would likely be in the early stages of a powerful third wave. Bitcoin has already made an 8% price gain after it dropped to a low of $98,200 following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. The most significant upward move came on Tuesday, June 24, when reports of a Middle East cease-fire pushed Bitcoin up roughly 4%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $106,330.

Kenorland Minerals (TSXV: KLD) announced on Wednesday that it has optioned three early-stage gold projects located in Northwestern Ontario to Centerra Gold (TSX: CG) (NYSE: CGAU) with a view of developing the assets under a joint venture. Under their agreement, Centerra, through its subsidiary Thompson Creek Metals Company, will have the option to acquire up to 70% of the Flora, Western Wabigoon and Algoman projects. The properties, covering a combined area of 2,300 sq. km, are all greenfield assets that have seen limited exploration to date. Shares of Kenorland rose 8.2% at market close Wednesday following the option agreement with Centerra, giving it a market capitalization of C$154.3 million. Centerra, a 9.9% shareholder of Kenorland, traded 0.8% higher with a market capitalization of C$2.0 billion. The option agreement is divided into two earn-in periods. First, Centerra can acquire an initial 51% interest in the projects by spending a total of C$10 million on exploration within three years, including C$3.5 million in the first year, and complete at least 10,000 metres of diamond drilling. Kenorland will act as the projects’ operator during this period. Upon completion of the first earn-in, Centerra would hold an exclusive right to earn an additional 19% interest in the projects by completing a preliminary economic assessment, based on a mineral resource of not less than 1 million oz. in gold equivalent, within seven years of acquiring the initial 51% Interest. During that time, Centerra must spend a minimum of C$100,000 annually, or provide equivalent value through cash or share payments to Kenorland. If it elects not to exercise this option, a 2% interest will revert to Kenorland, resulting in a 51% interest in the projects for Kenorland and 49% for Centerra. Once the second option or, if it is not exercised, the interest reversion, is completed, the companies will form a joint venture respective their pro-rata property interests. Successful completion would make Centerra the 70% owner of the JV, while Kenorland retains a 30% free-carried interest through to the completion of a prefeasibility study.

📊 Bitcoin segue a Liquidez Global M2 enquanto saldos nas Exchanges atingem novo recorde mínimo Indicadores sugerem fundamentos otimistas, mas apontam potencial risco de escassez de liquidez nos mercados centralizados Por Igor Pereira | Analista de Mercado – ExpertFX School De acordo com relatório recente da Matrixport e dados do Coinglass, o Bitcoin (BTC) continua altamente correlacionado à evolução da liquidez global M2, mesmo diante de incertezas macroeconômicas. A métrica M2, que compreende o dinheiro em circulação, depósitos e instrumentos de curto prazo, tem historicamente servido como termômetro pró-risco para o mercado de criptoativos – e sua recente expansão global impulsiona otimismo entre os analistas institucionais. 🔎 Análise Técnica e Fundamental: Bitcoin e M2 Desde 2020, o Bitcoin tem mostrado relação positiva com o crescimento do M2 global, impulsionado principalmente por políticas monetárias expansionistas dos principais bancos centrais (Fed, BoJ, BCE e PBoC). A retomada da injeção de liquidez em economias desenvolvidas, em meio a incertezas geopolíticas e comerciais, volta a favorecer ativos escassos e descentralizados como o BTC. Conforme destaca a Matrixport, esse padrão continua “historicamente bullish”, uma vez que os ciclos de expansão monetária tendem a alimentar a tese do Bitcoin como reserva alternativa de valor diante do risco de desvalorização fiduciária. 🏦 Dados On-chain: Saída maciça de BTC das Exchanges Segundo o Coinglass, a quantidade de Bitcoin mantida em exchanges centralizadas atingiu um novo recorde de baixa histórica. A retirada constante de BTC dos mercados spot pode ter implicações relevantes: Indicador Interpretação 📉 Baixo saldo em exchanges Redução de oferta circulante, pressão altista 🔒 Mais armazenamento em carteiras frias (cold wallets) Indica confiança de longo prazo por parte de investidores institucionais 🧮 Menor liquidez imediata Potencial aumento da volatilidade em eventos de alto volume Esse comportamento é amplamente interpretado como sinal de acúmulo, sugerindo que holders e instituições estão mais inclinados a reter o ativo em vez de buscar liquidez imediata – característica típica de mercados em consolidação antes de uma nova tendência de alta. 📈 O que esperar para o BTC? A combinação de liquidez M2 em crescimento com a queda da oferta disponível em exchanges cria um cenário tecnicamente favorável ao Bitcoin no médio prazo. No entanto, é fundamental monitorar: A resposta dos bancos centrais ao atual ambiente inflacionário e tarifário (especialmente o Fed); Eventos de liquidez crítica que podem afetar negativamente o mercado spot; Possíveis ações regulatórias sobre exchanges e custodiantes que alterem o comportamento de fluxo. 🧠 Conclusão do analista 📌 Continue acompanhando a ExpertFX School para atualizações em tempo real sobre liquidez institucional, fluxo on-chain e macroeconomia aplicada ao Bitcoin. 📥 Para receber análises exclusivas e sinais de mercado, acesse o Clube ExpertFX.

Sina—co-founder of the hedge fund 21st Capital—publicly dismantled a popular Bitcoin price model promoted by Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, calling it a textbook case of data illiteracy and overfitting. The model in question draws a close correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2—a measure of global money supply—by shifting M2 data forward by a set number of weeks, typically 10 to 12, to supposedly “predict” Bitcoin’s future price moves. Raoul Pal has used this chart to argue that macro liquidity conditions drive crypto cycles, and that the current market behavior can be forecast using monetary expansion. Expert Torches M2-Bitcoin Correlation But Sina, a trained data scientist who teaches data analytics at the undergraduate and graduate level, says this model collapses under scrutiny. “This is a terrible failure of not understanding overfitting,” he said in a June 24 video posted to X. “What I’m seeing doesn’t even pass the first month of a first-year data analytics course.” Sina points out that the apparent correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 only exists because the data has been “tortured” to fit historical patterns. “If I’m allowed to play with the data and arbitrarily move things around, I can definitely find great matches between pockets of data,” he said, warning that this flexibility is exactly what allows analysts to create the illusion of predictive accuracy. The primary issue, he explained, is that the Global M2 data itself is inherently flawed. It’s compiled by multiplying various central banks’ M2 figures by exchange rates—mixing fast-reporting economies like the US with countries that have data delays of weeks or even months. This creates a misleading impression of daily fluctuations in global liquidity. “It seems to be moving on a daily basis, but it’s actually mixing frequent and infrequent updates,” Sina said. “It’s not a true signal.” More importantly, Sina argues that the model fails the moment one zooms out from selective chart slices. While Raoul Pal and others have showcased examples of tightly aligned tops and bottoms between Bitcoin and Global M2, Sina demonstrated how minor tweaks in lead time or scale can yield dramatically different outcomes. “Let’s try a lead of 80 days. That doesn’t look good. What about 108? Ah, now the tops align—so let’s zoom in again and pretend it works,” he said sarcastically. “This is not modeling. This is playing.” He highlighted how each adjustment to the model—shifting from a 12-week lead to 10 weeks, to 108 days—exposes its lack of systematic foundation. “If you don’t have a proper model, you fail to predict the future,” Sina said. “This is classic overfitting. You force the data to match historical behavior, but you lose any generalizability.” To illustrate the concept, Sina compared it to fitting a curve through a noisy sine wave. A well-structured model captures the core pattern and ignores noise. An overfit model, by contrast, attempts to match every small fluctuation—resulting in poor predictive performance when new data arrives. “Overfitting looks better, but it models noise. And noise doesn’t repeat,” he said. Sina also questioned whether Bitcoin might actually lead liquidity, not follow it. “If you look at the last cycle, Bitcoin topped first. Liquidity topped 145 days later,” he said. This reverses the causality implied by the Global M2 model and calls into question its entire premise as a forward-looking tool. His conclusion was blunt: “You have to be very careful with overfitting. It looks matching, but it’s forcibly fit on historical data. You have no idea about the predictive accuracy of this thing.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $106,952.

How to Use Drill Down Analysis in Forex: A Multi-Timeframe Look at EURUSD EURUSD Drill Down: Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Successful forex trading requires more than just focusing on a single chart. Whether you trade on a 15-minute or 4-hour chart, you must understand the context provided by longer-term time frames. This approach is called drill down analysis, and it’s a favorite strategy of institutional and “real money” traders. In this article, we’ll show you how to perform drill down analysis, apply it to EURUSD, and identify key levels and trends across timeframes to improve your trading decisions. What Is Drill Down Analysis in Forex? Drill down analysis means starting with a higher time frame chart (like monthly or weekly) and working your way down to shorter ones (such as 1-hour or 15-minute). The goal is to identify: Major trends Key support and resistance levels Macro and micro price patterns By doing this, you place shorter-term moves in the proper context and avoid trading against the broader trend. Step-by-Step: How to Perform Drill Down Analysis Start With the Monthly Chart Identify the major trend Look for macro price patterns (e.g., multi-month candle formations) Mark long-term support and resistance levels Move to the Weekly Chart Spot the medium-term trend Identify momentum shifts and key levels that align or diverge from the monthly chart Analyze the Daily Chart Confirm whether the daily trend aligns with the broader trend Highlight potential retracement zones or breakout points Zoom Into the 4-Hour Chart Look for continuation patterns or signals of potential reversal Mark levels that must hold to keep the broader trend intact Fine-Tune Entry With Short-Term Charts (1H, 30M, 15M, 5M) Identify precise entry points based on trend confirmation or short-term reversal signals Always ask: Is this a move with the trend or just a retracement? EURUSD Drill Down Analysis: June 2025 Outlook Let’s apply this framework to EURUSD to see what the multi-timeframe analysis reveals. EURUSD Monthly Chart Trend: Strong uptrend Pattern: Five consecutive bullish candles from the 1.0171 low Outlook: No nearby resistance or reversal signals. A monthly trend break would require a lower monthly high/low—not yet visible. EURUSD Weekly Chart Trend: Bullish continuation Key Level: 1.1065 (well below current price) Outlook: No immediate threat to the uptrend EURUSD Daily Chart Trend: Uptrend remains intact Key Support: 1.1445–1.1450 Any meaningful dip above this level is likely a retracement, not a reversal. EURUSD 4-Hour Chart Trend: Bullish Support: 1.1580-90: Minor stops could be triggered here, but major support lies at 1.1445–1.1450. A break below that would alter the broader picture. EURUSD 1-Hour Chart Trend: Up Watch for a momentum shift– this timeframe can offer early clues on potential accelerations or corrections. EURUSD 30M, 15M, 5M Charts Use for Entry Timing Shorter timeframes offer trading opportunities in both directions. The key is to stay aligned with the larger trend or recognize temporary corrections. Scalpers and intraday traders should always reference higher timeframes before entering trades. Magic Trading Levels: A Range Perspective on EURUSD Another way to view EURUSD is by using my “Magic Levels,” which define a dynamic range: Support Zone: 1.1500 Resistance Zone: 1.1800 Midpoint/Pivot: 1.1650 This gives us two range scenarios: Above 1.1650: Targets 1.1800 as the next pivotal level Below 1.1650: Retests 1.1500 as key support These magic levels help frame short-term moves within a broader directional bias. EURUSD: Trade With the Trend, Put the Price Action in Perspective EURUSD is in a clear multi-timeframe uptrend with no significant signs of reversal as of June 2025. Any dip toward 1.1580-90 or even 1.1450 should be viewed as a buying opportunity, not a trend change unless key support levels are broken. Use drill down analysis to stay grounded in the big picture while taking tactical entries on shorter charts. This approach helps avoid false signals and keeps you on the side of momentum and where odds are on your side.. FREE Trial of The Amazing Trader – Charting Algo System – Click HERE

Chainlink (LINK) is up 21% from its Sunday lows, gaining momentum in an otherwise uncertain macro and geopolitical environment. While global tensions continue to spark volatility across markets, Chainlink has stood out for its resilience, supported by a series of strong partnerships and growing on-chain fundamentals. The recent price action signals a potential shift in trend, but analysts warn that a confirmed breakout is still needed before bulls can fully take over. Top analyst Henry Lord of Alts highlighted that LINK has endured months of persistent downtrend and unusually quiet price behavior. However, recent moves suggest that something is changing beneath the surface. Volume is increasing, volatility is picking up, and LINK is forming a base structure that could mark the end of its accumulation phase. Despite this strength, Chainlink remains technically locked within a consolidation range. A clean breakout above key resistance levels will be critical to trigger the next phase of upward momentum. Until then, traders are cautiously optimistic as LINK teases a larger move. Chainlink Prepares For A Decisive Move Chainlink is currently trading over 25% below its May high, reflecting the broader market impact of rising macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, especially the recent Middle East conflicts. Despite these pressures, LINK has managed to hold within a steady consolidation range, signaling resilience as the crypto market awaits its next decisive move. Maintaining prices above current levels is crucial. A breakdown here could open the door for deeper corrections. However, analyst Henry believes the tides may be turning. According to Henry, Chainlink has endured months of downtrend and silence, but a structural shift is now underway. His analysis highlights that the long-standing downtrend has been broken, and LINK has entered a clear accumulation and consolidation phase. “These zones often come before the loudest moves,” Henry notes. Historically, such phases have preceded explosive rallies, and this time may be no different. If momentum picks up, a breakout toward the $25–$30 range wouldn’t be surprising. Henry also points out that periods of inactivity often mask the actions of smart money—buying quietly before the broader market catches on. While it’s easy to overlook assets during calm phases, that’s often when the groundwork for major moves is laid. For now, Chainlink remains on watch. LINK Price Analysis: Signs of Reversal Emerge Chainlink is showing early signs of a trend reversal after months of consistent decline. As seen in the 12-hour chart, LINK recently rebounded from the $11.50 level and is now trading above $13.20. This recovery follows a steep drop that marked a new local low, but the bounce has pushed the price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), now acting as short-term support at $13.50. Importantly, LINK is now testing the 100-day SMA (around $14.65), which previously served as resistance in late May and early June. If bulls manage to break and consolidate above this level, the next target lies near the 200-day SMA at $14.16—a confluence zone that may act as a critical decision point for trend continuation or rejection. While the macro structure remains bearish, this short-term accumulation range suggests growing demand, especially as the price begins to form higher lows. A clear break above $14.65 with volume could confirm the breakout and signal the start of a larger move toward the $17–$18 range. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price surge above $106,000 this week has reignited bullish sentiment across the market, with analysts suggesting that the stars are aligning for a rally to a new all-time high. From shifting geopolitical tensions to a major regulatory pivot in the United States (US), multiple macroeconomic factors appear to be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next explosive move. Ceasefire And Rate Cut Buzz Fuel Bitcoin Price Optimism Over the weekend, the Bitcoin price briefly slipped, triggering over $200 million in leveraged long liquidations. However, this dip proved short-lived as the flagship cryptocurrency rebounded swiftly above $100,000 following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a total ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This sudden de-escalation helped ease global market anxiety, pushing Bitcoin past $106,000 and oil prices sharply down from $77 to under $70. Simultaneously, Optimism is building that the US Federal Reserve (FED) could begin cutting interest rates sooner than expected. Sharing new data by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, crypto analyst CW disclosed that the odds of a FED rate cut have increased to 18.6% by July 30 during the scheduled FOMC meeting. The report reveals that 81.4% of market participants believe the FED to keep rates unchanged at their current level. However, FedWatch’s data indicates growing expectations for a rate cut by the September FOMC meeting, with 79% betting on a reduction and only 21.3% anticipating no change. Notably, lower interest rates generally benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by increasing liquidity and boosting investor sentiment. With geopolitical tensions easing and a possibly looser monetary policy on the horizon, Bitcoin could gain further momentum, potentially climbing to $110,000. Supporting this bullish forecast, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggests that Bitcoin is gearing up for a rally toward a new ATH of $110,000 following its recent reclaim of the key $103,500 level. Although a retracement to around $102,500 remains possible, Bennett believes that once BTC cleans up support around $103,400, formed during Monday’s expansion, the next move could be parabolic. Regulatory Win Solidify Bitcoin’s Position In TradFi Beyond anticipated rate cuts and ceasefire announcements, the US FED recently made a landmark policy shift that could have profound long-term implications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. By removing “reputational risk” as a factor in evaluating crypto firms’ access to bank servicing, the FED is effectively ending a key pillar of Operation Checkpoint 2.0—a campaign that restricted over 30 crypto and fintech companies from traditional financial infrastructure. This recent change clears the way for greater institutional involvement in crypto. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have also followed suit, green-lighting crypto activities for banks and allowing them to participate in the digital assets market without prior approval. Together, these moves mark a regulatory pivot that not only legitimizes the crypto industry but could also accelerate demand and capital inflows into Bitcoin, potentially boosting its already significant valuation.

🇯🇵 Bank of Japan sinaliza alta de juros "no tempo certo" Naoki Tamura reforça postura mais agressiva do BoJ após anos de estímulos Por Igor Pereira | Analista de Mercado – ExpertFX School Em declarações recentes, Naoki Tamura, membro do comitê de política monetária do Banco do Japão (BoJ), afirmou que as futuras altas de juros ocorrerão de forma "oportuna e apropriada", reforçando a percepção de que a autoridade japonesa está se afastando definitivamente do regime ultraflexível que marcou a política econômica do país nas últimas décadas. A fala de Tamura ecoa o tom já demonstrado por outros membros do board, inclusive o ex-presidente Haruhiko Kuroda, e confirma que o BoJ está preparando os mercados para novos ajustes na taxa básica ainda em 2025. 🏦 Contexto da política monetária japonesa Após décadas de juros negativos e controle rígido da curva de rendimentos (YCC – Yield Curve Control), o Japão enfrenta atualmente: Inflação persistentemente acima da meta de 2%, após o impacto da desvalorização do iene e da alta dos preços de energia e alimentos; Pressões salariais crescentes, com sindicatos conquistando aumentos reais; Ritmo mais forte de crescimento nominal, algo incomum para a economia japonesa pós-1990. Nesse cenário, o BoJ já abandonou o controle da curva de juros e elevou a taxa de referência para a faixa de 0,10% a 0,25%, encerrando oficialmente o ciclo de juros negativos. A fala de Tamura reforça que novas altas podem ocorrer ainda este ano, caso a inflação e o mercado de trabalho continuem a aquecer. 📊 Impacto no mercado financeiro A expectativa de aperto monetário no Japão tem diversos efeitos nos mercados globais: Ativo/Indicador Impacto Esperado JPY (Iene) Valorização no médio prazo USD/JPY Pressão de queda, sobretudo se o Fed cortar juros Nikkei 225 Volatilidade aumentada com aperto monetário Ouro (XAU/USD) Pode ganhar força com desvalorização do dólar Bonds globais Aumento da correlação com JGBs, afetando curva americana O USD/JPY, que atualmente opera acima de 157,00, pode recuar fortemente caso o BoJ acelere seu ciclo de alta antes que o Fed inicie cortes de juros. 🎯 O que esperar? Nova elevação da taxa básica do Japão pode ocorrer entre julho e outubro, caso a inflação núcleo e os salários mantenham a atual trajetória ascendente; A postura hawkish do BoJ se contrasta com a hesitação do Fed, o que pode aumentar a pressão no câmbio global e beneficiar moedas de países exportadores; Para o investidor institucional, a subida dos rendimentos dos títulos japoneses pode atrair realocação de portfólios, reduzindo fluxo para Treasuries e reforçando a tendência de desdolarização em curso. 📢 Continue acompanhando a ExpertFX School para análises técnicas e fundamentais dos principais bancos centrais do mundo, incluindo o Banco do Japão, o Fed e o BCE. Igor Pereira Membro WallStreet NYSE | Analista-Chefe – ExpertFX School

Based on reports, stablecoin issuance has kept climbing for the past 90 days, with billions of dollars flowing in each week. Investors appear to be waiting for a clear sign before moving capital. Right now, USDT holds over 66% of that market, while USDC and DAI share the rest. In total, stablecoins account for about $250 billion, or almost 8% of all crypto assets. Stablecoin Supply Hitting New Highs Demand for a trusted dollar peg is driving this growth. Tether leads by a wide margin because many traders trust its stability. Stablecoin reserves have swelled, even as other segments stay quiet. This points to plenty of cash on the sidelines. Bitcoin And Stablecoin Dominance Bitcoin and stablecoins together make up roughly 74% of the total crypto market. That’s a big number. In past cycles, once those balances peak, money often moves into smaller tokens. Right now, Bitcoin’s price is steadying after recent swings. Stablecoin balances keep growing. Altcoin Season On The Horizon Based on forecasts from analyst Joao Wedson, altcoins could see a lift in Q3 2025. He points to the huge amount of stablecoin liquidity and persistent doubt among retail and big players. That stage of doubt has come before in other cycles, and it usually marks a turning point. When confidence returns, altcoins tend to surge. Investors Poised On The Sidelines Many holders seem ready to hit buy. They’re holding onto stablecoins until charts, on-chain data or macro news clear up. A boost in stablecoin flows to exchanges could be one early hint that rotation is starting. Large moves by whale wallets into low-cap tokens may follow. In recent weeks, inflows of stablecoins into trading platforms have ticked higher. That’s a key signal to watch. If weekly inflows rise sharply—say above $5 billion—it may show serious appetite building. Past cycles saw similar spikes just before altcoin rallies began. Another one to monitor is decentralized finance platform volume. When stablecoins move from wallets to lending or liquidity pools, it usually indicates that traders are looking for return and preparing to swap to other tokens. Related Reading: Bitcoin Paces $15 Billion YTD Influx Amid 10-Week Fund Flow Streak Market observers will also be monitoring Bitcoin’s consolidation range closely. If it remains above recent lows for a few weeks, that would give confidence a boost everywhere. Then we could see smaller cryptocurrencies move higher on new liquidity. Based on these signals, it looks like we’re in a waiting game. Stablecoin supplies are at record levels, Bitcoin is settling, and altcoin sentiment remains low. When all that lines up just right, funds are likely to rotate. Then the altcoin sector could see new life. Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView

🇺🇸 Fed propõe mudanças no SLR e pode liberar mais alavancagem para grandes bancos Medida pode impulsionar mercado de bonds, ações e derivados, com aumento sistêmico da liquidez Por Igor Pereira | Analista de Mercado – ExpertFX School Em mais um movimento que sinaliza flexibilização regulatória no sistema financeiro dos Estados Unidos, o Federal Reserve anunciou nesta terça-feira (25) que está propondo ajustes no SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) — índice que regula a quantidade de capital mínimo que grandes bancos devem manter frente ao total de ativos, inclusive os fora de balanço. Essa mudança, embora técnica, tem implicações diretas para os mercados financeiros globais. Na prática, ao aliviar os requisitos de capital das maiores instituições, o Fed abre espaço para aumento do uso de alavancagem em ativos como Treasuries, ações e derivativos estruturados. 📌 O que é o SLR e por que isso importa? O SLR é um dos pilares da regulação bancária pós-crise de 2008. Ele impõe um limite mínimo de capital sobre todos os ativos, incluindo posições com baixo risco, como títulos do Tesouro americano. O objetivo é evitar que bancos se alavanquem excessivamente em mercados considerados seguros, como ocorreu antes da Grande Crise Financeira. A proposta atual do Fed relaxa esse coeficiente para os bancos considerados sistêmicos, sob o argumento de que o ambiente atual requer mais flexibilidade para que essas instituições financiem mercados de crédito, absorvam choques de liquidez e ampliem sua atuação nas emissões de dívida pública. 💥 Impactos imediatos no mercado financeiro A flexibilização do SLR tende a aumentar a propensão ao risco e o volume de operações alavancadas, o que pode ter efeitos significativos sobre os preços de ativos: 📈 Títulos públicos (bonds): maior demanda de bancos por Treasuries pode pressionar os yields para baixo no curto prazo. 📊 Ações (S&P 500, Nasdaq): bancos podem ampliar market-making e provisão de liquidez, favorecendo movimentos de alta. 📉 Volatilidade implícita: com mais liquidez e capital liberado, a volatilidade tende a cair temporariamente, especialmente em ativos como VIX, ouro e dólar. 🎯 O que esperar daqui para frente? O aumento da alavancagem bancária pode gerar novo impulso nos ativos de risco, especialmente ações e crédito corporativo. A medida pode beneficiar títulos longos dos EUA, caso os bancos retomem compras em massa de Treasuries. Contudo, há riscos de que essa maior alavancagem gere bolhas localizadas ou aumente a fragilidade estrutural, especialmente se combinada a cortes de juros em breve. Para o mercado de ouro (XAU/USD), o efeito é duplo: maior liquidez pode favorecer ativos de risco, mas também reforça o argumento de proteção contra riscos sistêmicos, fortalecendo o ouro no médio prazo. 📌 Resumo técnico: Indicador Impacto Esperado S&P 500 Alta (curto prazo) Ouro (XAU/USD) Volatilidade + sustentação acima de $3.300 Dólar (DXY) Pressão vendedora Bonds (10Y Treasury) Queda nos yields Bancos (XLF, BAC, JPM) Beneficiados 📢 Acompanhe diariamente a ExpertFX School para análises em tempo real, impacto das decisões regulatórias e estratégias para navegar nos ciclos de política monetária e riscos sistêmicos. Igor Pereira Membro WallStreet NYSE | Analista-Chefe – ExpertFX School

Markets appear to be turning the page on the Israel-Iran conflict, which had briefly supported North American currencies. The US Dollar found a bid as crowded short positions were unwound, driven by rebalancing flows and position closures. The Canadian Dollar also benefited, buoyed by a surge in Oil prices that temporarily reinforced the outlook for Canada’s energy-linked economy. However, both narratives have now faded. The Dollar Index has returned to the lower end of its monthly range, while the Loonie has weakened in tandem with Oil giving back its war premium. With geopolitical catalysts fading, market attention is shifting back to incoming economic data for the next directional cues on USD and CAD. Read More: Nasdaq reaches ATH, Equities around the globe from Fear to Greed Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Germany and Italy are facing mounting pressure to repatriate a combined $245 billion worth of gold stored in the Federal Reserve vaults of New York, the Financial Times reported this week. According to FT, politicians and taxpayer advocacy groups in Europe have voiced deep concerns over the safety of their gold following verbal attacks by US President Donald Trump on the Federal Reserve. Storing bullion abroad can expose Europe’s financial sovereignty to unnecessary risk, they said. Germany and Italy currently hold the world’s second- and third-largest gold reserves respectively, at 3,352 tonnes and 2,452 tonnes. The US, meanwhile, is by far the largest holder at 8,133 tonnes. Leading the push is Fabio De Masi, a former member of the European Parliament and now affiliated with Germany’s new left-wing populist BSW party. Speaking to FT, De Masi said there are “strong arguments” to bring more of Germany’s bullion back home. Germany began storing a significant portion of its gold reserves in the US during the post-WW2 economic boom. As of today, about a third of its gold (1,200 tonnes) remain with the New York Federal Reserve in Manhattan. Earlier this year, German newspaper Bild reported that a number of senior figures within the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party have discussed the possibility of pulling its gold stockpile out of the US under the current political climate. Fed independence concerns The Taxpayers Association of Europe (TAE) shared similar concerns, with its president Michael Jäger urging Germany’s finance ministry and central bank (and those of Italy) to reduce their dependency on the Federal Reserve. “Trump wants to control the Fed, which would also mean controlling the German gold reserves in the US,” Jäger said in a Reuters interview. “It’s our money, it should be brought back.” in Italy, economic commentator Enrico Grazzini recently warned in the newspaper Il Fatto Quotidiano that “leaving 43% of Italy’s gold reserves in America under the unreliable Trump administration is very dangerous for the national interest.” Since returning to office, Trump has repeatedly voiced strong — and sometimes aggressive — criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This, according to the TAE, undermines its confidence in the US central bank’s independence, and the status of Europe’s gold going forward.

Crypto Man MAB, in his latest analysis on X, pointed out that Optimism (OP) is now priced at $0.553, showing a mild increase of +0.004 (+0.73%) within the last four hours. While the short-term movement is slightly positive, he emphasized that the overall trend has been bearish since the asset peaked near $0.75, marking a clear phase of correction in the market. Trend And Volume Analysis OF Optimism (PO) Delving into the trend, Crypto Man MAB observed that the asset’s short-term trend is leaning bearish. Over the past 24 hours, the price of OP has declined from a high of $0.564 to a low of $0.483, forming a downward trajectory. He noted that the longer-term outlook reinforces this sentiment, as the asset has dropped by a steep 71.02% over the last 180 days, clearly signaling sustained downward pressure. Turning attention to volume behavior, Crypto Man MAB emphasized the significance of recent spikes in OP’s trading volume, particularly during the sharp price decline. He explained that this increase in volume often indicates heightened market participation, most likely driven by panic selling or stop-loss triggers. The volume surge during this dip suggests that the bears are still active and in control. In his analysis, Crypto Man MAB further mentioned that the Volume SMA reflects periodic surges, with the most recent peak aligning with the downward movement in price. This alignment between rising volume and falling price often reflects a strong bearish sentiment, reinforcing the downward pressure seen on the chart. Support, Resistance, And Indicators Examining OP’s support and resistance levels, the analyst points out that the current price is trading near $0.483. This zone could act as a potential support if selling pressure begins to slow, offering a chance for a temporary stabilization or bounce. However, a sustained break below this level might signal further downside in the near term. On the flip side, the nearest resistance lies around $0.564, which represents the 24-hour high. If the price attempts a recovery, this level will likely serve as the first barrier to overcome. A successful move above it could signal improving sentiment, though further confirmation would be needed to shift the short-term bias away from bearish. Looking at the chart patterns, recent candlesticks show a mix of bullish and bearish activity, but the red candles have been more dominant. This pattern reinforces the ongoing downward momentum, indicating that sellers still have control. Until there is a visible shift in momentum, the overall tone remains cautious despite pockets of potential support.