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The GBP/USD currency pair showed no meaningful movements on Monday. In this article, we focus on upcoming events that could (theoretically) influence the pair's direction. "Theoretically," because for the past three weeks, the market has been actively ignoring many factors that typically work against the U.S. dollar. Simply put, if the dollar had been falling these last three weeks, we would consider it entirely justified. However, the British pound, like the euro, remains stuck in a flat range on the daily timeframe. From its current levels, GBP/USD could still fall another 250 pips and stay within the bounds of this flat market. And once the flat range is over, a new trend will eventually follow. While the dollar could technically gain several hundred points in the medium term based on technical factors alone, it's unclear what fundamental reason might support it starting a full-scale uptrend. Two significant events this week will be the consumer inflation reports from both the United Kingdom and the United States. In both cases, an acceleration in prices is expected. However, the implications for the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will differ. For the BoE, the pace of inflation is less critical. Inflation has been running above target for over a year now—almost double the official target—so it's becoming increasingly clear that the BoE is unlikely to lower interest rates any time soon. For the Fed, inflation is also not a key factor—at least not in the short term. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates twice more before the end of the year, as failure to do so could result in severe labor market strain. However, entering 2026, inflation will regain importance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and most members of the FOMC have reiterated their commitment to both mandates—employment and price stability—stating clearly that persistently high inflation would make further policy easing unlikely. For now, the labor market takes priority, but once it stabilizes, inflation concerns will come to the forefront again. In essence, while inflation may rise on both sides, the Fed is expected to continue easing, whereas the BoE is likely to hold steady. This asymmetry supports a stronger British pound and gives little support to the U.S. dollar. We still believe that most dips in the pair are either technically-driven or simply flat corrections. The market may still need time to stabilize as market makers build large, long-term positions—after which a new trend may emerge. We don't expect that trend to be bearish unless Donald Trump dramatically reverses his policy approach, which, while not impossible, seems unlikely at the moment. The average daily volatility for GBP/USD over the past five trading days stands at 77 pips—a level characterized as "average." On Tuesday, October 21, we expect the pair to move within the range defined by the levels of 1.3342 and 1.3496. The upper linear regression channel remains upward-sloping, confirming a bullish tendency. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory three times, which suggests a resumption of the uptrend may be near. Nearest Support levels:S1 – 1.3367 S2 – 1.3306 S3 – 1.3245 Nearest Resistance levels:R1 – 1.3428 R2 – 1.3489 R3 – 1.3550 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is attempting to resume the 2025 bullish trend, and its long-term outlook remains intact. Trump's policy continues to exert pressure on the dollar, so we see limited upside potential for the U.S. currency. Long positions remain relevant above the moving average, targeting levels of 1.3672 and 1.3733. If the price moves below the moving average, short positions may be considered with technical targets of 1.3342 and 1.3306. The dollar occasionally experiences technical corrections, but for a sustained upward trend, it would require a fundamental shift—such as a dramatic resolution in trade negotiations or other significant global economic catalysts. Explanation of Chart Tools:Linear Regression Channels: Help identify the current trend. If both channels are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong, directional trend.Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed): Identifies short-term momentum and the recommended trading direction.Murray Levels: Serve as target zones for both expansion and correction phases.Volatility Levels (Red Lines): Represent the expected price range over the next 24 hours based on current volatility data.CCI Indicator: Values above +250 or below -250 suggest overbought or oversold conditions, signaling a potential trend reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with weak volatility on Monday, which came as no surprise given the complete absence of macroeconomic and fundamental events throughout the day. As forecasted, volatility was low. Therefore, there is essentially nothing new to add to previously published analyses. Any kind of U.S. dollar strength at this point seems illogical—especially on a Monday lacking any justification for USD gains, with ongoing protests and unrest across the United States aimed at Donald Trump. Given this, the only logical step today is to look ahead at upcoming events for the rest of the week and attempt to assess what to expect. First, let's clarify our technical stance: we expect upward movement above the moving average and consider any decline below it as illogical and corrective in nature. While this may sound too simplistic, what it means is: as long as the price is above the moving average, long positions remain valid. If the price dips below, any sell trades should be entered with the understanding they are against the broader trend. The daily timeframe remains the most informative. On it, we clearly see not a correction (i.e. dollar growth), but a flat market that has persisted for several months. Therefore, it cannot currently be said that the U.S. currency is strengthening. The main event this week is undoubtedly the U.S. inflation report—not because of its influence on the Fed's monetary policy, but simply because it is nearly the only important report scheduled for the entire month. Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, key labor market and unemployment data remain unavailable until Democrats and Republicans reach a consensus. Another event to monitor is European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech—though she has already spoken at least ten times in recent weeks without delivering any market-moving news. The latest inflation report in the eurozone showed slightly stronger-than-expected numbers, but it does little to change the ECB's stance. If inflation is rising, it means rates cannot be cut further, yet tightening policy is not an option either. On Friday, PMI data for the eurozone's services and manufacturing sectors will be released for October, but these are generally not high-impact reports and rarely trigger strong market reactions. Overall, this week traders should focus on Donald Trump's commentary on China and the U.S. inflation report. That's essentially the entire fundamental calendar. From a technical perspective, a new drop in the EUR/USD pair is not impossible. The daily chart still allows for a 150-pip decline within the flat structure. However, until we see a confirmed downward trend, selling the pair comes with increased risk and is not currently advisable. The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days (as of October 21) is 57 pips, which is considered "average." On Tuesday, we expect movement between the levels of 1.1599 and 1.1713. The upper linear regression channel is pointing upwards, which confirms the ongoing bullish trend. The CCI has recently entered the oversold zone, which may spark a new wave of upward momentum. Nearest Support levels:S1 – 1.1658 S2 – 1.1597 S3 – 1.1536 Nearest Resistance levels:R1 – 1.1719 R2 – 1.1780 R3 – 1.1841 Trading Recommendations:EUR/USD is attempting to start a new uptrend on the H4 chart, while the uptrend remains intact across higher timeframes. The U.S. dollar remains under heavy pressure due to Donald Trump's unpredictable policies, which show no signs of slowing down. While the dollar has strengthened locally in recent sessions, its fundamental basis is weak. The ongoing flat structure on the daily timeframe continues to explain much of the sideways movement. If the price moves above the moving average line, buying remains relevant, with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902 in line with the trend. If the price drops below the moving average, short positions can be considered on a technical basis, with downside targets at 1.1536. However, these should be treated as corrective rather than trend-continuation trades. Explanation of Chart Tools:Linear Regression Channels: Help identify the current trend. If both channels are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong, directional trend.Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed): Identifies short-term momentum and the recommended trading direction.Murray Levels: Serve as target zones for both expansion and correction phases.Volatility Levels (Red Lines): Represent the expected price range over the next 24 hours based on current volatility data.CCI Indicator: Values above +250 or below -250 suggest overbought or oversold conditions, signaling a potential trend reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD – 5M Timeframe On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant throughout the day. There were absolutely no macroeconomic or fundamental events, and, even under such quiet conditions, volatility remained extremely low. Over recent months, volatility has been steadily declining, signaling reduced trader activity—something quite typical during flat market phases. It's worth noting that both the euro and the pound are in a sideways trend on the daily timeframes. Within such a flat range, price movements can be completely unpredictable. This week may bring notable events for both the pound and the dollar, but traders will have to wait. While inflation reports are usually significant, in the current context they are having a modest impact on the market. As such, the uptrend on the hourly timeframe remains technically valid but still lacks momentum. Realistically, no one will be thrilled if the pair continues inching upward at 20 pips per day with constant corrections. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price broke through the 1.3420 level roughly seven times during the day, with overall daily volatility totaling around 45 pips. Traders may have attempted to open positions early in the session, but we had warned that the likelihood of low volatility was very high. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) COT data for the British pound shows that commercial traders have been shifting their sentiment frequently in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often cross and tend to hover near the zero line. Currently, they are nearly equal, indicating a balanced number of long and short positions. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken due to the policies of Donald Trump, which makes market makers' interest in the pound Sterling less relevant in the current phase. The ongoing trade war is expected to persist in some form for an extended period. The Federal Reserve is also projected to continue cutting rates over the next year. Demand for the dollar is bound to diminish. According to the latest COT report for the pound, non-commercial traders opened 3,700 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position among this group increased by 4,600 contracts. In 2025, the pound has posted significant gains, but the catalyst is clear—Trump's policies. Once that factor dissipates, the dollar may rebound. When that happens, however, remains highly uncertain. Regardless of how the pound's net positions evolve, the U.S. dollar's net position continues to decline—often at a faster pace. Analysis of GBP/USD – 1H Timeframe On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has finally completed its downward trend and has begun forming a new bullish structure. The U.S. dollar still lacks fundamental reasons to strengthen, so we expect the pair to continue rising toward its 2025 highs in almost any scenario. The primary concern is whether the flat trading on the daily timeframe will continue for several more weeks. Nonetheless, it's already evident that the Trump-driven trade war continues to escalate, tensions are rising, and the Federal Reserve remains committed to monetary easing. This is a toxic cocktail for the U.S. dollar. Key levels for October 21: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. Additionally, the Senkou Span B line (1.3393) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3358) may generate signals during the trading day. A Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven after a 20-pip favorable movement. Note: Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day and should be monitored accordingly for accurate signal generation. For Tuesday, no major events are scheduled in either the U.S. or the United Kingdom, meaning another flat, low-volatility market day is likely. Trading Recommendations:Today, traders may initiate trades from the 1.3420 level or from the Senkou Span B line. There are multiple support levels located below the market, while incoming news remains limited. The British pound has started to rise, so in the short term, continued upward movement is expected toward the 1.3533–1.3548 area. However, the likelihood of a flat session with minimal price movement remains high. Explanation of Chart Elements:Resistance/Support Levels – thick red lines: These are zones where price movement may pause or reverse; they do not generate trading signals by themselves.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B – key lines from the Ichimoku indicator, transferred to the hourly chart from the 4-hour timeframe; they serve as major points of support/resistance.Extremes – thin red lines: Previous swing highs or lows from which price historically bounced. They can generate trading signals.Yellow lines – include trendlines, channels, and other technical chart patterns.COT Indicator 1 (on charts): Shows the net position count by trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD – 5M Timeframe The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited virtually no trading activity on Monday—literally. There are days when the market is sideways, and then there are days when the market is completely inert. Yesterday was one of those days. No macroeconomic reports were published, no fundamental events occurred, and even the latest rhetorical jabs from Donald Trump directed at China failed to revive trading activity. Traders have become increasingly indifferent to statements from the U.S. President, having realized that Trump changes his stance as often as the wind. As a result, there was no reason for traders to enter the market. Technically, the new uptrend remains intact and could resume at any moment. Several important macroeconomic reports are scheduled this week, so traders can reasonably expect a trending phase. The pair continues to trade above the Ichimoku indicator lines and previously broke through a descending trendline. Therefore, we continue to anticipate growth in the pair. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price moved within a narrow range between the Kijun-sen line and the 1.1666 level throughout the day. Volatility did not exceed 40 pips. No valid trading signals were generated. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) The latest COT report is dated September 23. No newer reports have been published due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. As shown in the chart above, non-commercial traders' net positions had remained bullish for an extended period. Bears only briefly took control in late 2024 but lost their advantage quickly. Since Donald Trump began his second presidential term, the U.S. dollar has been in decline. Although we can't say with 100% certainty that this decline will continue, current global developments suggest that scenario is quite plausible. We still see no fundamental factors supporting euro strength; however, there are plenty of reasons for continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. The long-term downtrend in the USD is still relevant, but in the current geopolitical context, historical trends spanning the last 17 years aren't as helpful. If and when Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may strengthen again, but recent developments indicate these conflicts are far from over. One of the most concerning factors for the USD remains the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, which adds additional downward pressure on the greenback. The red and blue lines on the indicator still point to the continuation of a bullish trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions held by the "Non-commercial" group fell by 800 contracts, while short positions increased by 2,600. Therefore, the net position declined by 3,400. However, these figures are significantly outdated and currently hold little weight. Analysis of EUR/USD – 1H Timeframe On the hourly chart, EUR/USD may have completed its downtrend as early as two weeks ago. The trendline, Kijun-sen, the 1.1604–1.1615 area, the 1.1657–1.1666 zone, and the Senkou Span B line have all been surpassed. Thus, we can now expect movement only to the upside. We believe that the euro has long been overdue for an upward move, especially now that all the necessary technical criteria have been met. Still, the market is slow to act on this, despite having enough justification. Trading levels for Tuesday, October 21: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B level (1.1651) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1635). Note that Ichimoku lines can shift during the day and should be monitored in real time when identifying signals. Also, if the price moves at least 15 pips in the correct direction, make sure to set Stop Loss at breakeven to protect against potential false signals. On Tuesday, the only notable event in the eurozone is another speech from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. This will be her 10th or so appearance in the past few weeks. As of yet, she has not communicated anything market-moving. The U.S. economic calendar remains empty. Trading Recommendations:On Tuesday, traders can continue to focus on the 1.1651–1.1666 zone. To open long positions targeting 1.1750–1.1760, wait for confirmation of a breakout above this area. We do not recommend shorting the pair, as the trend has clearly shifted upwards and there are numerous support levels below that may prevent further declines. Explanation of Chart Elements:Resistance/Support Levels – thick red lines: These are zones where price movement may pause or reverse; they do not generate trading signals by themselves.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B – key lines from the Ichimoku indicator, transferred to the hourly chart from the 4-hour timeframe; they serve as major points of support/resistance.Extremes – thin red lines: Previous swing highs or lows from which price historically bounced. They can generate trading signals.Yellow lines – include trendlines, channels, and other technical chart patterns.COT Indicator 1 (on charts): Shows the net position count by trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Ethereum network was built to democratize a finance platform where anyone, anywhere, could deploy code and create value. With no centralized oversight, ETH has become a stage where builders and grifters coexist, each leveraging the same tools of decentralization to vastly different ends. Can Ethereum Evolve Beyond Its Culture Of Exploitation? Ethereum has always been more than just a cryptocurrency. It’s a programmable, open finance framework that allows anyone to build and exploit ETH. According to AdrianoFeria’s post on X, this openness has enabled innovation and also allowed countless grifters to accumulate vast amounts of ETH by selling low-quality tokens and NFTs to retail investors. The mechanism of extraction was simple yet profound, so that retail investors, ironically seeking to gain more ETH exposure through higher beta plays, ended up parting with the very asset they sought to accumulate. These grifters effectively extracted ETH that might have otherwise remained in the hands of long-term holders. However, one of the earliest and most glaring examples was EOS. At its peak, it held about 7.2 million ETH, which is roughly 6% of the total supply, marking the largest single treasury in existence. A subsequent wave of Initial Coin Offering (ICO) and NFTs is believed to have extracted more ETH from the hands of long-term retail holders. This continuous speculative excess transferred wealth, creating selling pressure that ultimately slowed down ETH’s long-term appreciation. Furthermore, Adriano Feria asserts that ETH has finally moved beyond that phase and will be reflected in price action (PA) with steadier growth and much stronger relative strength during market corrections. Institutions are actively embracing ETH, and even hardcore BTC maximalists have been forced to acknowledge ETH’s technological strengths and the undeniable institutional traction it has attracted. These expectations are for a boring supercycle, and with crypto commentators (CT folks) still trying to call the top. Still, this very stability and institutional foundation is precisely what the ETH supercycle is meant to look like. Why Ethereum Legacy Belongs To Everyone A digital artist, ArtvisionNFT, from Ukraine, who specializes in NFTs, has revealed that in the fast-moving world of blockchain, history is at risk of being forgotten. As a result, the Covalent_HQ Ethereum Wayback Machine (EWM) was built to ensure the full history remains intact and accessible to everyone, anywhere, to access the verified blockchain data. However, EWM acts as a digital time capture, collecting, verifying, and storing old block using a decentralized system. Those process ensures that developers can use EWM to audit smart contracts, build analytics, and trace blockchain activity. EWM protects the transparency, accountability, and innovation in the broader Web3 ecosystem. At its core, Covalent_HQ’s mission is to make sure ETH’s story is never lost.

Bitcoin and Ethereum rose after US President Donald Trump confirmed a meeting with China’s leader during the APEC summit on October 31. Based on reports, Bitcoin climbed nearly 4% while Ethereum gained about 5% and traded around $4,030. The whole market added roughly $100 billion in value in a short window, according to market watchers. Insider Whale Bets And Mixed Positions Reports have disclosed that an insider whale opened $255 million in long positions across Bitcoin and Ethereum. At the same time, the same trader put on a $76 million short on Bitcoin with 10x leverage. The moves look like a bet on swings in price rather than a single directional stake. Observers note the trader has a history of large, well-timed trades, including a prior $730 million short that paid off. There is no clear public ID for this whale, and the motives are being examined by analysts. Political Shift Sends Prices Higher Based on reports, comments by US President Donald Trump helped calm markets. He reportedly said “it will all be fine” when speaking about China’s economy, and the tone toward Beijing softened after a week where he had announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. That tariff claim had sparked a big sell-off across traditional and crypto markets just days earlier. Market players reacted quickly to the latest signals of a thaw, viewing the upcoming meeting as a chance for reduced tension. On-Chain Activity And Institutional Moves According to on-chain data and exchange records, large-scale activity continued across spot markets. BitMine was reported to have picked up about $1.5 billion worth of Ether, a move that market participants say shows faith in Ethereum’s long-term outlook. Meanwhile, El Salvador quietly added eight BTC to its reserves, bringing its total holdings to 6,355.18 BTC. Exchange Flows Show Withdrawals Based on exchange records, major centralized platforms recorded a net outflow of roughly 21,000 BTC over the past week. Coinbase Pro and Binance were named among those with the biggest withdrawals, showing about 15,000 BTC and 12,000 BTC moved off exchanges, respectively. Traders interpret such flows in different ways: some see accumulation into private wallets, others see funds repositioned by large traders. The Implications Of This Moving Forward Reports indicate that the market is reacting to both political signals and positions being adjusted by big hands. If the rhetoric between the US and China continues to show friendly signals, prices may push higher and retest monthly highs. But the presence of a sizeable short position alongside large long positions suggests that volatility will stay. Presently, data points are being watched closely and traders are establishing balances between advancing positions and hedging. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

Solana (SOL) is back on the front foot after a choppy week, trading near $194 and holding a critical support band at $175–$186 that has repeatedly attracted dip buyers since August. Price reclaimed the $190–$193 area after a sharp bounce from trendline support, with traders now eyeing a clean break over $200 to flip momentum. On the charts, Solana remains inside a descending channel of lower highs and lows, but a sustained move above $202–$211 (a confluence of the 20/50-day EMAs and key Fibonacci levels) would mark a structure shift and open upside targets at $221–$222, then $235 and $250. Volume Pops, Open Interest Climbs, Institutions Accumulate Bullish undercurrents are building beneath the price. On-chain and market data show trading volumes surging to multi-month highs, while futures open interest has pushed above $8billion, signaling stronger participation and the potential for a larger directional move when volatility expands. Spot flows turned positive, with close to $31.7million in net inflows recently pointing to accumulation at mid-range levels. Institutional and corporate interest remains a durable pillar for Solana. A recent Grayscale analysis highlights the network’s high throughput, low fees, and expanding developer base. Meanwhile, ARK Invest reported $223 million in Q3 network revenue, ranking among the highest in the blockchain industry. Additionally, corporate treasuries across digital-asset firms collectively hold over 20 million SOL, underscoring long-term institutional commitment. Staking yields of around 7% annually continue to attract holders, while scaling initiatives like Firedancer aim to improve throughput and network resilience. Catalyst Watch: $200 Reclaim, Solana ETF Headlines, and Network Growth Near term, the market wants confirmation. A daily close above $202–$211 would validate a trend reversal and strengthen the case for a measured grind toward $235–$250. Analysts also flag ETF progress and regulatory headlines as potential catalysts, alongside macro risk appetite driven by rates and liquidity. Fundamentally, Solana’s momentum is buoyed by DeFi/NFT activity, rising DEX volumes, and enterprise experiments in payments and DePIN. With support defended, volume rising, and institutional demand re-emerging, SOL’s setup skews constructive. If bulls reclaim the EMA cluster and hold over $190 with growing volume, a push to the $221–$222 zone, and ultimately a $250 extension, enters play. Cover image from ChatgGPT, SOLUSD chart from Tradingview

A rare signal from a legendary market analyst has caught traders’ attention as the Ethereum and Solana price begins to show potential reversal signs. With the broader crypto market still in a slump, a subtle alert from the inventor of one of the most respected technical indicators has analysts wondering whether a major shift is about to unfold in ETH and SOL. Bollinger Inventor Signals Ethereum And Solana Price Explosion John Bollinger, technical analyst and inventor of the world-famous Bollinger Bands indicator, has shocked the broader crypto community after identifying potential “W” bottoms forming on the Ethereum and Solana charts. In his market commentary on X social media, Bollinger noted that while Bitcoin has yet to exhibit similar signals, the ETHUSD and SOLUSD pairs are shaping up in a way that demands attention. Notably, Bollinger’s cautious but bullish statement immediately drew attention from fellow market analysts. Satoshi Flipper, a well-known crypto expert, revealed that Bollinger typically makes only one such market call each year and has not issued one for Ethereum in three years. He disclosed that the last time the Bollinger Bands inventor made a similar statement was in September 2022, just before the ETH price surged from around $1,290 to nearly $4,000. Due to Bollinger’s selective and historically accurate calls, analysts see it as an early sign of a potential reversal of a downtrend or consolidation into an explosive breakout. If the inventors’ analysis proves accurate once again, both Ethereum and Solana could be sitting at the foundation of one of their strongest bull rallies Analysts Predict Bullish Targets For ETH And SOL Two separate technical analyses also highlight an optimistic outlook for the Ethereum and Solana prices. Crypto analyst Lark Davis highlighted that Solana’s chart structure appears “very constructive,” with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching a momentum breakout and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) gearing up for a bullish cross. Davis noted that Solana’s price action is forming a clear Double Bottom, a classic reversal pattern. Should the neckline break, he projects a potential price target near $250, provided bulls can defend the 200-day EMA. With Solana trading around $192, a rally to that target would mark roughly a 30% gain. Ethereum’s technical outlook is even more dramatic. Analyst Merlijn the Trader stated on X that ETH has been developing the most explosive setup since the 2017 bull cycle, pointing to a textbook Bullish Pennant pattern on the monthly chart. Historically, such formations precede massive continuation once the price breaks above the upper boundary of the pattern. Merlijn’s chart analysis projects an eventual breakout target around $8,500, suggesting that Ethereum could set a new all-time high soon. Considering that the ETH price is sitting above $4,000, a surge to this bullish target would more than double its value, marking an impressive 110% increase.

Buyers fully absorbed Thursday's modest correction, reversing the previous pullback and resuming the upward trend. Persistent uncertainty surrounding global trade, rising geopolitical risks, and growing concerns over the prolonged U.S. government shutdown—which may impact key economic indicators—are all providing a bullish foundation for gold. Additionally, market participants have fully priced in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which has limited the U.S. dollar's ability to capitalize on Friday's modest gains. This, along with global fiscal concerns, central bank gold purchases, and strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs, continues to support the metal's rally. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump tried to ease concerns over the threat of an all-out trade war between China and the U.S., which temporarily capped gold's upside and triggered some mild profit-taking into the weekend. However, the correction was shallow and lacked follow-through. Investors remain wary of broader economic risks, driven by increased geopolitical tensions and the ongoing government shutdown. Equally important are concerns about fiscal discipline and the rapidly expanding national debt, particularly in the U.S.—factors which continue to fuel demand for gold as a risk-hedging tool. Geopolitical tensions have escalated further, with Ukrainian drones striking a Gazprom gas processing facility in southern Russia and a separate attack targeting a Russian oil refinery in the Samara region near Orenburg. These developments amplify the risk of further escalation in the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Domestically, the political situation in the U.S. remains tense as well. The federal government shutdown has entered its third week, with Republicans and Democrats clashing over healthcare funding. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets now fully price in consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts at both the October and December Federal Reserve meetings. These expectations are limiting U.S. dollar recovery and providing additional support for gold. Given the upcoming FOMC meeting and Friday's U.S. inflation data, it may be prudent to refrain from entering active positions in the near term. Technical Outlook From a technical standpoint, the XAU/USD pair has shown resilience below the $4,240 level. However, the rally encountered resistance near the historic high at approximately $4,380. On the downside, initial support is seen near the Asian session low of $4,219–$4,218, followed by key psychological support at $4,200 and Friday's low around $4,186. A sustained break below the $4,140 area would increase the risk of a steeper decline, exposing the pair to a potential drop toward the key support zone around $4,100. Below that, gold may enter a deeper corrective phase. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Throughout the day, the yen failed to meet expectations for intraday gains relative to a softer U.S. dollar, as market participants focused on Japan's evolving political landscape. According to the Kyodo news agency, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) are planning to form a coalition. As part of this new alliance, a parliamentary vote will be held on Tuesday to confirm Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister. Takaichi supports the economic policies of her predecessor, Shinzo Abe, which include large-scale fiscal spending and monetary stimulus to support economic growth. She is expected to oppose further tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which is weighing on the yen. In addition, global trade uncertainties may encourage the BoJ to maintain its current stance at the upcoming policy meeting. However, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated on Friday that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and inflation indicators align with forecasts. Meanwhile, inflation in Japan has remained at or above the BoJ's 2% target for over three years, and the economy has shown growth for five consecutive quarters, the latest ending in June. This backdrop gives the central bank room to consider another rate hike in December or January. At the same time, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that traders have fully priced in two 25 basis point rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve—one in October and another in December. This hasn't provided much support for the U.S. dollar and continues to favor the lower-yielding yen. The U.S. government shutdown has now extended to 20 days, and the Senate is preparing for its 11th vote on a stopgap funding bill. The unresolved deadlock between Democrats and Republicans is limiting upside potential in the USD/JPY pair. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, bullish oscillators on the daily chart support a positive bias for the pair. Immediate resistance lies at 151.40 and 151.75, with the psychological level of 152.00 in sight. On the downside, support near 150.30 protects against a slide toward another key level at 150.00. A firm break below this mark could lead to a test of Friday's low near 149.40. A continuation of bearish pressure would pave the way toward the next psychological support at 149.00 and potentially lower. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The topic of a fresh round of confrontation between China and the United States has been discussed endlessly—yet there's simply no other issue commanding more attention in the market at the moment. As I've said numerous times before, the biggest problem is the lack of clarity. Market participants have no idea what kind of developments to expect. The "trade truce" between China and the U.S. is set to expire on November 10. I use quotation marks intentionally, because in reality, there is no truce. Journalists were quick to label the reciprocal reduction in tariffs a "ceasefire." But by late October, can anyone honestly speak of peace between Beijing and Washington? This trade war was initiated by Donald Trump, likely under the assumption that all countries would obediently follow the White House's lead. Some did. But not China. Beijing speaks little, but acts decisively. Washington talks plenty, but does little. Both global heavyweights hold an ace up their sleeve: for the U.S., it's a massive and wealthy consumer market; for China, it's rare-earth metals. The U.S. market is well understood. Chinese rare-earth metals, however, are a far more complex and sensitive subject. While China is not the only country in the world with reserves of these critical metals—used in electronics, defense systems, and space exploration—it is by far the largest producer. Thus, Beijing can, in fact, use its position to pressure the global supply chain, as virtually every technologically advanced nation depends on them. Until recently, China had avoided weaponizing this advantage, refraining from threatening export restrictions. But Trump's tariffs poked the sleeping bear. Either his team underestimated China's resolve, or they acted with undue arrogance. What did the U.S. President expect? That China wouldn't respond? That China had no means of retaliation? That it wouldn't dare? And yet—it did! Notably, Chinese officials rarely speak about the European Union or other countries. Their focus remains firmly on the United States. And rightly so. Given all of this, I personally doubt the negotiations in Malaysia will end in success. In any case, Beijing has played its trump card, and now it's Washington's turn to show more flexibility. Wave Outlook for EUR/USD:Based on my analysis, the EUR/USD pair continues forming an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background—especially decisions by Trump and the external and internal policies of the new White House administration. The current wave could extend to the 1.25 area. At present, we appear to be witnessing the formation of corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion, though it is taking on a complex and extended form. Therefore, I continue to consider only buying opportunities. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Outlook for GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has evolved. We are still dealing with a bullish, impulsive phase of the trend, but its internal wave makeup is becoming more complex. Wave 4 is taking on a three-wave form, with a structure that is significantly more extended than wave 2. Another bearish three-wave pattern appears to have completed. If this is confirmed, then upward movement may resume in the context of the global wave structure, with initial targets near the 1.38 and 1.40 levels. Core Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be straightforward and easy to interpret. Complex formations are more difficult to trade and often shift unpredictably.If you're uncertain about market conditions, it's better to stay out.Absolute certainty in the market direction is never possible. Always use protective orders, such as Stop Loss.Wave analysis can—and should—be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The USD/CAD pair has been trading within a clearly defined upward trend for five consecutive weeks. Key drivers include the dovish stance of the Bank of Canada, softness in the oil market, decelerating inflation, and a mixed labor market landscape in Canada. The start of the pair's current upward momentum can be traced back to the Bank of Canada's September meeting, where the central bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. Policymakers expressed concern over the slowing economy: GDP decreased by 1.6% year-over-year (vs. a forecasted 0.6% contraction). This marks the weakest reading in four years, since Q2 2021, when Canada's economy shrank by 3.2%. Multiple macroeconomic indicators demonstrated negative dynamics. For example, exports dropped by 7.5%—the steepest decline in five years—while business investment fell by 0.6%, the worst result since 2020. Output also declined in many goods-producing sectors. Labor market figures tell a contradictory story. A jobs report released two weeks ago appeared strong, but Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem still characterized the labor market as "weak." According to published data, employment increased by 60,000 in September, with the unemployment rate steady at 7.1% (vs. expectations of an increase to 7.2%). Notably, the employment gain was driven entirely by full-time jobs, while part-time employment dropped by 45,000. Governor Macklem explained that the September employment growth only partially offset earlier job losses totaling over 100,000 across the prior two months. He also noted that the unemployment rate has risen from 6.6% at the start of the year to 7.1%. Furthermore, negative trends are emerging: for instance, job seekers with higher education (bachelor's degree or above) are struggling, with about five unemployed individuals per job opening. In other words, despite a seemingly solid September report, the labor market did not support the Canadian dollar (the "loonie"). Macklem's pessimistic remarks have prompted speculation that the central bank may lower rates again at its upcoming meeting on October 29. The final missing piece remains inflation. Canada's previous CPI report (August) came in weaker than expected, with the monthly headline inflation rate falling into negative territory for the first time since April (-0.1% m/m vs. forecast +0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, CPI rose to 1.9% (vs. forecast 2.0%). Tuesday, October 21, Canada's September CPI data will be released. According to preliminary forecasts, the headline consumer price index is expected to remain negative month-over-month at -0.1%. On an annual basis, CPI is projected to return to July levels at 1.7%. Core CPI is likely to remain flat m/m—just as it was in August—and slow to 2.5% y/y after holding steady at 2.6% for two consecutive months. If the report meets or falls short of forecasts (land in the "red zone"), the Canadian dollar will likely face increased pressure due to rising dovish expectations. According to economists at RBC (Royal Bank of Canada), the Bank of Canada could cut rates not only in October but again in December—totaling a 50-basis-point reduction by year-end. Meanwhile, Capital Economics forecasts just one 25-basis-point cut at one of the two remaining meetings this year. Overall, there is no consensus in the market regarding the pace at which the Bank of Canada will ease monetary policy. Uncertainty remains, which means the report could trigger notable volatility in USD/CAD—especially if the figures disappoint. In that case, the northern trend may resume with renewed strength. From a technical perspective, the pair remains within a clearly defined uptrend. On the daily chart, price is situated between the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands indicator and above all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which has generated a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. All these signals point to a preference for long positions. The first—and currently only—target for the northern movement is 1.4090, which corresponds to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The downgrade of France's credit rating by S&P Global Ratings came as a bolt from the blue for EUR/USD. Bulls believed the political drama had ended, but this event brought the euro back down to earth. Two of the three largest agencies have now stripped France of its double-A credit rating. Moody's is expected to release its verdict on October 24. As a result, some hedge funds with strict investment criteria are selling French bonds, causing the yield spread with their German counterparts to widen. Yield Spread Dynamics Between French and German Bonds The main indicator of risk in Europe has begun to widen again. Investors realized they had mistaken hope for reality. The fact that Sebastien Lecornu's government survived a no-confidence vote means little. The prime minister now faces a tough battle over the budget. It's far from certain that he'll be able to reduce the deficit to below 5% of GDP. Despite EUR/USD pulling back from local highs, CIBC remains optimistic on the major currency pair. The bank notes that speculative long positions built up between mid-February and April preceded a breakout above $1.14. That level now acts as key support. Net euro longs are still far from the levels seen in 2020 and 2023, signaling room for growth. The shakeout of cautious hedge funds and asset managers during corrections creates excellent opportunities to buy EUR/USD at lower prices. The key drivers remain divergences in monetary policy and economic growth. Donald Trump's tariffs are expected to slow the U.S. economy, while fiscal stimulus from Friedrich Merz will accelerate GDP growth in Germany and across Europe. According to Goldman Sachs, the Fed is projected to cut the federal funds rate four more times—twice in 2025 and twice in 2026. Meanwhile, the ECB has completed its cycle of policy easing. Indeed, the medium- and long-term outlook for EUR/USD appears bullish, but trading the TACO strategy ("Trump Always Caves Off") keeps buyers on edge. Trump's conciliatory tone, his confidence that the meeting with Xi Jinping will take place, along with upcoming U.S.–China negotiations, continue to support the U.S. dollar. Dynamics of U.S.–China Tariffs Trump has called the current high tariffs on China unsustainable. This has led to a shift from "Sell America" trades to TACO positioning. Stock indices increased, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Additionally, disappointing eurozone business activity data and accelerating U.S. inflation could further support the greenback. Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, bears are trying to capitalize on a pin bar with a long upper shadow. The first attempt failed, but sellers remain active. A drop below the local low at 1.6450 would be a bearish signal to sell. It makes sense to consider buying again from 1.1675 or higher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The XRP price rebounded above $2.40 to start the week as fresh fundamentals offset recent market turbulence. Ripple is widening its institutional footprint, acquiring GTreasury to plug XRP and tokenized assets into corporate cash, liquidity, and risk workflows. Similarly, reports point to a planned $1billion digital-asset treasury initiative centered on XRP accumulation and liquidity support, alongside new partnerships such as Absa Bank in South Africa and collaborative pilots with DBS Bank and Franklin Templeton. Even the policy backdrop is heating up as a formal petition filed with the SEC argues for a macro framework where XRP acts as a neutral, institutional settlement rail across CBDCs, stablecoins, and tokenized assets, signaling growing attention on XRP’s wholesale utility. Rising Volumes And Derivatives Interest Bolster Liquidity On-chain and market data show improving participation. Spot volume climbed sharply as the XRP price advanced 5% in 24 hours, suggesting renewed buyer engagement after the historic leverage flush. In regulated markets, CME data highlight a breakout year for XRP futures and options, with record open interest and an expanding base of large institutional holders. This two-pronged backdrop, stronger spot activity plus deeper derivatives liquidity, can compress spreads, reduce slippage, and make it easier for institutions to deploy size. Meanwhile, Ripple announced a $200,000 security bounty for its XRPL lending stack, a signal to banks and treasurers that enterprise-grade security and governance remain priorities. Xrp Price Levels To Watch On The Path To $5 On a technical perspective, the XRP price is wrestling with layered resistance levels, starting with the 20-day SMA near $2.66, followed by $2.80–$3.00, and the prior cycle zone around $3.10–$3.19. Clearing these with strong volume would open a run toward $3.50–$3.84 (the former ATH), where a decisive breakout could invite momentum flows and push targets toward $5 in a favorable market. On the downside, $2.32 is initial support, and losing it risks a retest of $2.10. Momentum gauges (RSI/MACD) have stabilized from oversold readings, implying room for upside if spot demand persists and Bitcoin’s recovery holds. If the XRP price reclaims $2.66 and $2.80 with conviction, and institutions keep adding via treasuries and futures, a $3–$5 range in the next bull leg is achievable, while failure to hold $2.32–$2.10 would delay the timeline. As liquidity rebuilds, risk management around these levels remains essential. Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview

Dogecoin is regaining its spark as technical indicators flash signs of renewed bullish momentum. Following a prolonged consolidation and a notable correction to $0.095, the popular meme coin is now showing encouraging signs of recovery. A quiet yet steady breakout in its price structure, supported by an RSI breakout from an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, points toward strengthening market sentiment. Dogecoin’s Price Action Aligns With RSI Breakout Targets Trader Tardigrade, in his recent analysis of Dogecoin’s 4-hour chart posted on X, emphasized that the popular meme coin is maintaining a solid uptrend after a quiet but meaningful breakout. The move reflects growing bullish strength in the market as DOGE continues to trade above key support levels, signaling renewed interest from buyers after a period of consolidation. He further explained that the RSI indicator is displaying an inverse head and shoulders breakout pattern, a technical signal that often precedes a strong bullish continuation. The development suggests that momentum is building in favor of the bulls, with the RSI likely to climb toward the overbought zone if buying pressure persists. According to Tardigrade, if the current uptrend remains intact and the price continues to hold above key short-term supports, Dogecoin could advance toward its previous high near $0.21. Breaking above that level would not only validate the bullish structure but also potentially trigger a stronger rally, as it would confirm a shift in market sentiment toward sustained upside momentum. DOGE Shows Early Signs Of Rebound After Deep Correction Crypto analyst BitGuru revealed in a recent post on X that Dogecoin (DOGE) is finally showing the early signs of a potential rebound. This follows a prolonged period defined by a lengthy consolidation phase and a deep correction that pushed the price down to the $0.095 level. Such resilience, appearing after such an extended pullback, suggests that the market may finally be ready to stabilize. The analyst provided a clear technical trigger that would confirm a definitive shift in the short-term market momentum. For the momentum to truly take hold and build into a sustainable rally, the price must successfully sustain above the key $0.20 level. This acts as the necessary floor that buyers must establish and defend. If DOGE is able to achieve a confirmed hold above $0.20, the technical outlook suggests a clear path higher. Momentum would then be expected to build rapidly toward the next major resistance target, identified as the $0.25 zone, signaling a significant short-term bullish shift for the meme coin.

Gold set a new record on Monday, rebounding from Friday’s drop, as uncertainty over US-China trade talks as well as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut fueled demand for the safe-haven metal. Spot gold rose as much as 2.9% to $4,380.89 an ounce, surpassing its all-time high from last week before the selloff. US gold futures jumped over 4% to nearly $4,400 an ounce, also a new high. Click on chart for live prices. Prices are now up more than 65% so far in 2025, underpinned by soaring demand for havens in the face of geopolitical and trade tensions, rising fiscal and debt levels, and threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence. The Monday rally comes despite comments from US President Donald Trump that alleviated some concerns around its tensions with China, stating that they will have a “fair deal”, with the two sides slated to meet in the coming days. Buying the dip The developments would have dampened demand for havens such as gold, but traders instead took advantage of a selloff Friday to buy more bullion. There’s nothing but buyers in the gold market, said Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank AS. Friday’s retreat in prices “has already attracted fresh demand today, highlighting the strength of underlying demand still lurking below, waiting for an opportunity,” he added. In a note to Bloomberg, TD Securities’ Dan Ghali ascribed the price rally to “extreme FOMO,” referring to the fear-of-missing-out sentiment among investors, adding gold’s ascent this time around is “overwhelmingly driven by the West.” CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian told Reuters that political and economic concerns are what’s driving prices higher after Friday’s sharp sell-off. “Our expectation is that the price is going to rise higher over the next several weeks and several months, and we wouldn’t be surprised at $4,500/oz. soon,” he said. Meanwhile, a widely anticipated US rate cut at the end of this month is also driving investors towards gold, as the metal tends to thrive in low-rate environments. In the lead-up to the Fed’s first rate cut in September, bullion soared to multiple records, registering nine straight weeks of gains in the process. Traders are currently pricing in a 99% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates again next week, followed by another in December. (With files from Bloomberg and Reuters) Sponsored: Secure your wealth today — buy gold bullion directly through our trusted partner, Sprott Money.

Forex Stop Hunts Explained What is the best way to trade If there’s one forex trading tip that can truly transform how you see the market, it’s this: The forex market is driven by a constant quest to run stops. That statement may sound bold, but for many experienced traders, it’s one of the most powerful truths about how price action really works. Understanding the role of stop runs or “stop hunting” can give you a clearer perspective on why markets behave the way they do and help you stay on the right side of the trade. The reason this article focuses on the forex market is because it has the most universal price feed, meaning anyone looking at a chart can agree more or less on the same levels. This makes it easier to identify key levels and where there may be stops. The same cannot be said for other markets, gold coming closest. What is the best way to trade The Market’s Constant Quest to Run Stops At its core, the forex market is a battleground of liquidity. For every buyer, there must be a seller and the easiest way for big players and algorithms to find liquidity is by triggering stop-loss orders. AUDUSD 1 HOUR CHART (illustrating a stop hunt) Stops tend to cluster arond obvious technical levels such as: Recent highs or lows Highs and lows of the day Round numbers (like EURUSD 1.1500 and 1.2000, USDJPY 150.00 and 155.00, etc. Breakout points or prior support/resistance zones When price approaches these areas, liquidity-seeking algorithms may “probe” to see if they can trigger a wave of stop orders. This creates quick bursts of volatility with sharp spikes on a bar chart or long wicks you often see on a candlestick chart. How Forex Algos Hunt Stops While no trader outside of an institution knows exactly how every forex algorithm is programmed, it’s a fair assumption that many are designed to identify where stop clusters likely exist. These algos act like seek-and-destroy systems, constantly probing the market for liquidity. When they find it by running through stop levels price can suddenly accelerate, creating those outsized candles that catch traders off guard. It’s not personal; it’s just how the market operates. Recognizing this helps you interpret market moves with a more disciplined eye. Recognizing Stop Runs on the Chart A stop run often leaves a distinct footprint: A large wick on a candlestick (especially on shorter time frames) A sharp spike followed by an equally quick reversal A long candle that quickly loses momentum When you see a price move blast through an obvious level and immediately reverse, chances are that stops were triggered. Once those stops were cleared, it indicated the market ran out of fuel and snapped back. Conversely, if price trades through a stop zone smoothly without a wick or strong reversal, it might indicate that stops were limited or easily absorbed by fresh order flow. There are times when a stop hunt can lead to continuation moves as the algos look to stay on the attack by probing more support (resistance) levels in search of more stops to run. I call these cascading stops that are characteristic of a liquidating market. What is a Liquidating Market and How to Trade It? When There Are No Stops Left to Run Once all nearby stops have been triggered, the market often loses momentum. In other words. the algos lose interest on that side with no stops left to run. At that point, you may notice currencies drifting sideways or narrowing into tighter ranges or in other cases, probing the other side to see if there are stops to run. How to Use Stop-Hunting Awareness in Your Trading Understanding the market’s tendency to chase stops doesn’t mean you should try to guess where they are and trade against them. Instead, it should help you: Assess which side of the market is more vulnerable Gauge when volatility spikes are likely Manage your risk placement more intelligently You don’t need an order book to sense where stops may be resting. Over time, you can develop this skill by studying price behavior near obvious levels and observing how markets react when those levels break. The next time you see a sudden spike, don’t just think “random volatility.” Ask yourself: Were stops just triggered? Once you begin to recognize that the forex market is constantly seeking liquidity through stop runs, you’ll start viewing price action from a completely different perspective. This simple shift in mindset can give you a major edge by helping you anticipate moves, avoid traps, and trade more in sync with the way the market truly operates. It can also give you levels to place take pr4ofit orders once stops are run. What is the best way to trade Take a FREE Trial of The Amazing Trader – Charting Algo System The post Forex Stop Hunts Explained: Why Understanding Stop Runs Can Change the Way You Trade appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 20 US and global stocks rose sharply on Monday, driven by optimistic investor sentiment as they look forward to a week packed with earnings reports from major American companies. All three major US indexes, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq, gained more than 1%. The S&P 500 increased by 1.1%. Loop Capital, the latest business to cite strong iPhone demand patterns, raised Apple's shares to buy, helping the company set its first record in 2025. A barometer of technology megacaps rose 1.6%. The Russell 2000 index of small businesses rose 1.9% The mood among investors is very positive, despite two major risks: the US government shutdown is now in its 20th day, freezing the release of most official economic data; and there are ongoing worries about credit quality in the regional banking sector, which some experts believe could cool down the overall stock market. This week, investor focus will be on reports from giants like Tesla, Netflix, IBM, Procter & Gamble, and Coca-Cola. Traders are betting that these large companies will deliver strong results, which helped push a global stock index (MSCI's gauge) up by 1.25% for the day. Furthermore, investors are closely watching for any cues from the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and the delayed U.S. inflation report, which is finally expected to be released this Friday. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Netflix (NFLX) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Decoding Netflix's Shift to Profitability-Driven Growth (ARM)Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin and Gold were the standout performers on the day with both instruments recording gains north of 2%. Gold in particular printed a fresh all-time just above the $4380/oz handle. The Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones recorded a positive start to the week with both indexes rising north of 1%. The US 10Y bond yield struggled sliding just shy of the 1% mark on the day. A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 20 – Source: OANDA Labs The U.S. dollar saw a small gain on Monday with the overall dollar index rising slightly by 0.053% but remains near the low point it hit on Friday. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar edged up 0.08%. The euro slipped slightly, dropping 0.06%. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar saw the biggest movement, rising 0.48%, as traders cheered new data showing that China's economy (Australia's biggest trade partner) is holding up reasonably well despite U.S. tariffs. A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Asian session will be a quiet one in terms of data releases. Attention will be on the European session tomorrow where we will get speeches from a few ECB policymakers as well as President Christine Lagarde. Ahead of the US session markets will brace for the continuation of US earnings releases with some companies such as General Motors, Verizon and Coca-Cola among other reporting ahead of the market open. The US session remains light with the highlight coming from Canada with the release of Canadian inflation data as well as a speech by Fed policymaker Waller. Netflix will be the main earnings release after the market close tomorrow and could have implications for Nasdaq 100 as well. Safe Trades! Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward wave structure (see second chart), but over the past few weeks, it has become more complex and ambiguous (see first chart). The pound has declined too sharply, so the trend segment that began on August 1 now looks uncertain. The first idea that comes to mind is the complication of the presumed wave 4, which is taking a three-wave form, with each of its sub-waves also consisting of three smaller waves. In that case, a decline toward the 1.31 and 1.30 levels could be expected. However, the downward wave structure that began on September 17 has already taken a three-wave form. From here, two scenarios are possible — either a continuation into a five-wave pattern or the start of a new upward sequence of waves. Naturally, I expect only a rise in quotations under either structure. In my view, the current news background is so unambiguously negative for the dollar that no other outcome seems likely. However, in recent weeks, buyers have shown no initiative at all. At present, much in the foreign exchange market depends on Donald Trump's policies. The market fears a possible easing of Fed policy due to a weakening labor market and Trump's pressure, while the president himself continues to introduce new tariff packages, signaling that the global trade war remains in full swing. Therefore, the news background remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD rate barely moved on Monday, showing no reaction even to Donald Trump's new aggressive statements toward China. To be fair, it should be noted that over the past week alone, Trump has repeatedly shifted the tone of his remarks about Beijing. The market is already tired of these "swings." Now participants want concrete actions, not endless speculation. As mentioned in my weekend reviews, there is currently a complete lack of clarity in the market. Anything can happen. Perhaps China and the U.S. will agree on a trade deal in November. Or perhaps everything will end in a new escalation. We'll find out only in November. The results of the next FOMC meeting could also vary widely, and the sentiment among Committee members may shift significantly once the U.S. government shutdown ends and all the delayed economic reports are released. By the way, no one knows when the shutdown will end — nor what the current state of the U.S. labor market is, or what degree of monetary policy easing it may require. This week, market participants will be able to analyze only inflation data from the U.S. and the U.K. — at least that's something concrete. Interestingly, the U.S. inflation report is scheduled for Friday, October 24, though it usually comes out midweek, around the 14th–15th of the month. Perhaps this is an error, and the CPI won't actually be published then — but no one knows for sure yet. General ConclusionsThe wave pattern for GBP/USD has evolved. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment, but its internal structure has become more complex. Wave 4 is taking a three-wave form and is turning out to be much longer than wave 2. The latest downward three-wave structure appears to have been completed. If that is indeed the case, the pair may continue rising within the global wave structure, with initial targets around the 1.38 and 1.40 levels. The larger-scale wave structure looks almost perfect, even though wave 4 has slightly surpassed the high of wave 1. However, I remind you that ideal wave patterns exist only in textbooks — in practice, things are much more complicated. At this stage, I see no reason to consider alternative scenarios to the ongoing upward trend. Key Principles of My Analysis Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex ones are difficult to trade and often prone to change.If you're uncertain about the market, it's better to stay out of it.There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed — unfortunately, not for the better. It's still too early to conclude that the upward segment of the trend has been canceled, but the recent decline in the European currency has made it necessary to refine the wave labeling. Now, we see a series of three-wave structures a-b-c. It can be assumed that these are components of the larger wave 4 within the upward segment of the trend. In this case, wave 4 has taken on an unnaturally extended form, but overall, the wave structure remains coherent. The formation of the upward trend segment continues, while the news background still largely fails to support the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is ongoing. The confrontation with the Federal Reserve persists. The market's dovish expectations regarding the Fed's rate policy are growing. The U.S. government shutdown continues. The market's assessment of Trump's performance over the first nine months remains quite low, even though economic growth in the second quarter reached nearly 4%. In my view, the formation of the upward segment of the trend is not yet complete, with targets extending up to the 1.25 level. Based on this, the euro may continue to decline for some time — even without any clear reason (as in the past three weeks) — while the overall wave pattern will still retain its integrity. The EUR/USD exchange rate barely changed on Monday. Market activity was very low amid a complete lack of events or news. Of course, if one wishes, some "news" can always be found. For example, Donald Trump said today that he "won't allow China to play rare earth games." In my opinion, such a statement sounds hostile rather than conciliatory. Recall that last week, many analysts believed that trade tensions between the U.S. and China were easing since the U.S. president promised not to raise tariffs by 100% for too long. That was seen as a temporary measure to encourage Beijing to be more cooperative in the November talks. However, I would note that Trump's overall rhetoric toward China cannot be described as positive or peaceful. It is Washington that constantly makes accusations, issues new ultimatums, and demands compliance with its own terms. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the trade war won't escalate again tomorrow. Meanwhile, the market continues to wait for something concrete, as clarity is severely lacking at the moment. Trump can promise anything and threaten anyone, but all market participants know well that what the U.S. president says today may be completely different tomorrow. Therefore, I think the first meaningful movements this week will come after the U.S. inflation report is released. General ConclusionsBased on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news background related to Trump's decisions and the domestic and foreign policy of the new White House administration. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. At present, we can observe the formation of corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion but has taken on a very complex and extended shape. Therefore, in the near future, I continue to consider only buying positions. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale. On a smaller scale, the entire upward segment of the trend is visible. The wave pattern is not perfectly standard since the corrective waves differ in size — for example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such situations do occur. I remind you that it's best to identify clear structures on charts rather than focus on every single wave. The current upward structure raises almost no questions. The Main Principles of My Analysis Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.If you're uncertain about the market situation, it's better to stay out of it.Absolute certainty in market direction never exists. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

A well-known crypto commentator has set off fresh debate by laying out a dramatic buy plan for Cardano (ADA), while market data points to a more cautious near-term picture. Analyst Lays Out Wild Upside Targets According to Mr. Brownstone, Cardano could offer a once-in-a-lifetime buying chance if price action follows a specific pattern. He highlighted sniper entry points and sketched a five-wave move that would, on his chart, lift ADA into three-digit territory. At the time reports were filed, ADA had risen 4% in 24 hours and was trading around $0.67. That followed a pullback of more than 20% over the prior two weeks and a flash crash low near $0.27 on Binance on October 10. Wave Forecasts That Aim Very High Based on the analyst’s wave count, ADA would first rebound to about $0.91 before slipping back to roughly $0.42. The third wave in his sequence is shown at $22.89. That number represents a 3,34% gain from the then-current price. A corrective move to $7.5 would come after that, with a later target of $167 at the 1.38 Fibonacci extension. The chart’s most extreme path points to the 1.61 extension at $572 — a projection that Mr. Brownstone ties to long-term cycles, with a possible arrival year of 2034, which is about nine years away from now. According to his view, one last deep dip near $0.20 would set the stage for the entire structure. He suggests that a fall to about $0.20 — roughly a 70% drop from the market price at the time of his forecast — could happen in the first quarter of 2026. Derivatives Show Lower Confidence But market signals point in a different direction today. Reports have disclosed that futures Open Interest for ADA fell to over $112 million, the lowest year-to-date and levels not seen since November 2024, based on Coinglass data. Open Interest dropping usually means fewer new positions are being taken. At the same time, short bets rose and trader participation waned. ADA had corrected nearly 7% in the previous week and was hovering around $0.65 at the time of writing. Big Targets, Big Questions Taken together, the picture is mixed. The analyst’s scenario offers huge upside numbers: $22.89, $167.4, and the eyebrow-raising $572.4. But those figures rest on a strict wave interpretation and the assumption of fresh, strong buying after a dramatic low near $0.20. Market breadth and derivatives data do not yet support that kind of conviction. Participation is lower and short interest is higher, which usually points to weaker near-term momentum. Reports have shown both sides: a vivid long-term plan and data that favors caution right now. Traders and investors will need to weigh the math of wave counts against real trading flows and the possibility that prices could stay subdued for some time. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

XRP’s price has stabilized after its recent crash and is now making a slow recovery to $2.50 with early signs of renewed strength. The cryptocurrency is now under close observation by traders waiting for the next decisive move. One such observation is an ambitious forecast that has surfaced online, projecting an astronomical rally for XRP. A crypto commentator known as Remi Relief shared a post on the social media platform X, using artificial intelligence to support his claim that XRP could reach as high as $1,700 if it repeats its explosive run from 2017 to 2018. The Analyst’s AI-Backed Projection In his post, Remi Relief revisited XRP’s 2017 rally, noting that the token had surged by about 76,000% rather than the commonly cited 64,000%. He explained that if XRP were to replicate that same level of growth in the current market cycle, its price could reach around $1,700. The image attached to his post, which appears to be an interaction with Grok 3, an artificial intelligence tool, illustrated this calculation by adjusting previous errors in the percentage increase. According to the AI’s analysis, XRP’s 2017 rise from $0.005 to $3.84 represented an actual gain of about 76,700%. When this growth rate is applied to XRP’s present market value, the resulting projection points to an estimated price of $1,697.27, rather than the previously calculated figure of $1,414.40. Grok concluded that although earlier projections contained mathematical inaccuracies, the underlying argument that XRP remains capable of another extraordinary price expansion fits within the speculative nature of crypto price projections. Taking this correction into account, Remi Relief revised his earlier outlook, abandoning his initial $1,200 target and adopting the higher $1,700 estimate as a more accurate reflection of what a repeat of XRP’s 2017 to 2018 rally could achieve for its current price. The Fine Line Between Optimism And Reality The crypto market that witnessed XRP’s rise in 2017 was an entirely different one from what exists today. Back then, the industry was still in its experimental phase, and investments were mostly due to hype and unregulated enthusiasm. Retail investors poured in with little resistance, and even small inflows had an outsized effect on token prices because overall liquidity and capitalization were relatively low. Particularly, XRP’s 76,000% rally occurred in an environment where total crypto market capitalization was under $1 trillion. To replicate that same magnitude of rally now, XRP would need capital inflows on a scale that is greater than anything the crypto market has ever witnessed. An XRP price of $1,700, given its current circulating supply of around 59.97 billion tokens, would translate to a market cap exceeding $101 trillion. This is an astronomical figure that surpasses the combined value of the entire world’s GDP. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.47, up by 5.9% in the past 24 hours.

Copper prices rose to a near record on Monday as investors continue to assess the direction of US-China trade talks as well as Beijing’s outlook for the world’s top consumer. In London, the metal traded as high as $10,691.50 a tonne for a 1.5% intraday gain. Earlier this month, it had surged to a record $10,866.40 per tonne as global mine disruptions raised alarms over supply. On the Comex, copper futures jumped 1.6% to $5.0485 per lb., equivalent to $11,130 per tonne. Click on chart for live prices. The moves follow earlier comments from US President Donald Trump that he may impose tariffs on “many other things” should talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping not bear any fruit. The sides are due to meet later this month ahead of the Nov. 1 deadline. Separately, fresh data from China released on Monday painted a mixed picture of the economy, though the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said a full-year target of about 5% economic growth was still on track. The metals industry is coming out of what proved to be a relatively bullish gathering of merchants, producers and buyers at LME Week in London last week. Major global traders are enjoying their most profitable year ever, as a series of mine disruptions and supply dislocations drove prices toward record levels. (With files from Bloomberg)

Bitcoin is staging a modest rebound after several days of intense selling pressure and fear across the market. The leading cryptocurrency has struggled to establish stable support, with volatile swings making it difficult for traders to navigate. Despite the uncertainty, some market participants continue to move strategically — and one of the most well-known whales has just made a big return. The trader known as BitcoinOG (1011short) — who gained fame for earning over $197 million during last week’s flash crash — is back in action. On-chain data shows that he has deposited $30 million in USDC to Hyperliquid and opened a 10x short position on 700 BTC, worth roughly $75.5 million. This move has drawn the market’s attention, reigniting speculation about whether the whale anticipates another leg down for Bitcoin. While BTC is attempting to recover above the $110,000 mark, the presence of such a large short position highlights lingering bearish sentiment and a lack of conviction among traders. For now, bulls are fighting to stabilize price momentum, but with whales like 1011short back in the game, volatility is likely far from over — and the market may be in for another sharp move soon. Whale’s Short in Profit as Market Tension Rises According to Lookonchain, the whale known as BitcoinOG (1011short) currently holds an unrealized profit of about $880,000, or roughly 11%, on his latest $75.5 million short position opened on Hyperliquid. The trade, placed during Bitcoin’s rebound phase, has quickly gained traction as BTC struggles to sustain momentum above the $111,000 level. This move has sparked unease among investors and traders alike, many of whom view it as a potential warning sign that larger players may be positioning for renewed downside pressure. Still, analysts warn that this might not tell the full story. While the 1011short address has earned a reputation for precision — notably pocketing $197 million during the October 10 flash crash — the transparency of on-chain data has limits. It’s unclear how many positions this whale currently holds across other exchanges or what the exact strategy behind his trades may be. As such, reading his moves as a simple bearish bet could be an oversimplification. The next few days will be critical for Bitcoin’s trajectory. If the whale decides to scale his short further, it could intensify selling pressure and drag BTC toward key support levels. Conversely, if he closes out the position or pivots to longs, it might suggest a short-term market bottom. Either way, the setup points to heightened volatility ahead, with traders bracing for sharp price movements as the market digests this high-profile activity. Bitcoin Holds Weekly Support, but Resistance Looms Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization on the weekly chart, recovering from its October 10 flash crash low near $103,000 to trade around $111,200. The candle structure suggests that buyers are defending the 50-week moving average (blue line), which has acted as a reliable mid-cycle support throughout the current bull phase. However, the broader structure still shows Bitcoin consolidating below the $117,500 resistance — a level that has repeatedly capped rallies since mid-2025. Until BTC breaks above this zone with strong volume, the market remains trapped in a sideways range, with traders positioning cautiously amid high volatility and uncertain macro conditions. Momentum indicators point to neutral-to-bearish sentiment, reflecting hesitation among bulls after weeks of heavy liquidations. Yet, the presence of higher lows on the weekly chart continues to support the long-term bullish structure, as long as BTC holds above $106,000–$107,000. If price manages to reclaim and close above $117,500, the path could open toward $125,000–$130,000, aligning with liquidity pockets from previous tops. Conversely, a weekly close below $106,000 would shift the outlook bearish, suggesting deeper corrections ahead. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Minespider and critical minerals broker Rare Earth Ventures (REV) have entered into a strategic partnership aimed at bringing traceability to rare earth and other mineral supply chains in Australia. Traceability is increasingly becoming a prerequisite for investment and market access, ensuring that mining projects can demonstrate responsible sourcing and ESG performance to global buyers. For this purpose, Minespider has developed a digital product passport (DPP) platform for reliably tracking supply chain data. Australia represents one of the world’s most important markets – the fourth largest globally – for rare earths, and also holds significant deposits of lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, manganese and other critical minerals. Founded in 2023, REV plays a strategic role in this landscape by facilitating foreign investment and development in the rare earth and critical minerals industries. As a trusted intermediary, REV connects mining projects with international investors, offtakers and strategic buyers, ensuring every deal is compliant, transparent and ESG-aligned. This strategic partnership will enable REV to implement one of the most innovative traceability solutions on the market – proving that mineral supply chains are transparent, secure and ESG-compliant – while providing Minespider with access to Australian projects. Through this collaboration, the two companies will deploy DPPs that embed transparent, verifiable data into raw material supply chains. Their joint efforts aim to strengthen the integrity and compliance of mining and industrial operations, ease access to foreign investment, and accelerate the development of critical mining projects. “Traceability and transparency are no longer optional – they’re the foundation for gaining market access and investment. Through our partnership with Rare Earth Ventures, we’re helping Australian mines prove their ESG performance and unlock global opportunities,” Nathan Williams, founder and CEO of Minespider, stated in a press release. “At REV, we see traceability as fundamental to building investor confidence in critical mineral supply chains. Partnering exclusively with Minespider allows us to deliver secure, transparent and ESG-aligned solutions to our clients worldwide,” said Theresa Schmidt, director at REV. Earlier this year, Minespider formed another strategic partnership with Tethys: Trans-Eurasian Gateway, an investment consultancy firm focused on Turkey and Central Asian mining projects. Like the collaboration with REV, this partnership was designed to facilitate capital inflows into mining projects while embedding transparency and traceability into supply chains. Currently, companies such as Tata Elxsi, Ford Otosan, Renault, PTL, Minsur, Luna Smelter and TEMSA are all using Minespider’s technology to drive the shift toward a sustainable future.