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Bitcoin has held steady around the $108,000 price level in recent days. After bouncing back from a brief pullback near $105,500 on Wednesday, Bitcoin recently tested $109,000 again in the past 24 hours. A popular crypto analyst has shared a long-term “Bitcoin Bull Run Cheat Sheet” that claims that the cryptocurrency has now entered into the final phase that will lead to massive price gains. Bitcoin Cheat Sheet Declares Start Of Final Bull Phase In a recent post on X, Merlijn The Trader released what he dubbed the “Bitcoin Bull Run Cheat Sheet.” This cheat sheet is a breakdown of Bitcoin’s past market movements that shows the distinct phases of bear markets, accumulation zones, and subsequent parabolic bull runs. The cheat sheet divides each of Bitcoin’s two previous cycles from 2014 into three colored boxes: red for bear markets, orange for accumulation, and green for bull runs. Merlijn’s chart traces this repeating structure over the past decade, showing how each bull market followed a similar rhythm that began after a lengthy consolidation period and ended with a strong price explosion. The first full cycle began with Bitcoin’s peak around $1,000 in December 2013. Following that top, the price entered a long, painful bear market that spanned into 2015. This red-box phase eventually transitioned into accumulation, where Bitcoin traded sideways between $80 and $500 for a prolonged period. The green bull run box on the chart began around early 2017, and eventually ended with a peak just below $20,000 in late 2017. According to the cheat sheet, this entire cycle from peak to new peak lasted 1500 days. Bitcoin’s second cycle kicked off after its December 2017 top. A long drawdown followed, and the bear market phase dragged Bitcoin down to $3,000 by the end of 2018. The chart marks this point with another red box, followed by the orange accumulation zone that stretched well into 2020. The cheat sheet’s green box reappeared in late 2020 right as Bitcoin broke above its previous highs. The price shot up throughout 2021 and eventually reached a new all-time high around $69,000 in November of that year. This second full cycle was shorter than the first and spanned around 1400 days from the previous top. When Will The Next Bull Run Begin? The current cycle began with Bitcoin’s all-time high in November 2021. Since then, the market has gone through its familiar sequence. A sharp decline into 2022 which bottomed around $15,000 represents the bear market phase. The decline was followed by nearly a year of sideways movement and slow recovery up until early 2025. This is represented as the orange accumulation box on the cheat sheet above. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is now in the next bull phase, and possibly the largest one yet. The chart projects a continuation along the long-term growth curve, possibly toward the $250,000 to $300,000 range over the coming year. Notably, the timeline for the entire cycle this time should take about 1,300 days from late 2021 to complete. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,260. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

🧧 PBoC Pode Estar Comprando 3x Mais Ouro do que Reporta Oficialmente 💰 Divergência entre Dados do FMI e Estimativas Reais Aumenta desde 2022 Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado e Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE Desde 2022, uma crescente discrepância entre as compras oficiais de ouro registradas pelo Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) e as estimativas independentes feitas por especialistas de mercado tem gerado alertas importantes. Um dos principais pontos de atenção é a possibilidade de que o Banco Popular da China (PBoC) esteja adquirindo ouro de forma não declarada — um movimento estratégico que visa fortalecer sua posição monetária global sem atrair volatilidade ou especulação excessiva. 📊 A Divergência nos Dados Compras oficiais declaradas pelo PBoC (FMI): cerca de 10-12 toneladas por mês Estimativas de mercado (ajustadas por fluxo físico e refinarias): entre 30 e 40 toneladas mensais Estimativa de Igor Pereira, analista da ExpertFX School: 🧠 Por Que o PBoC Faria Isso? Evitar pressões no mercado internacional de ouro Compras declaradas em grande escala poderiam disparar o preço do ouro e atrair sanções ou restrições políticas Consolidar sua posição de reserva com discrição A China deseja aumentar o peso do ouro em suas reservas sem sinalizar um movimento abrupto de desdolarização Apoiar o yuan como moeda internacional O ouro serve como ativo neutro que fortalece a credibilidade do yuan digital nas relações comerciais com países emergentes e BRICS Diversificar frente ao risco geopolítico Com tensões crescentes com os EUA e sanções sendo utilizadas como arma financeira, o ouro representa uma proteção estratégica contra o congelamento de ativos em dólares 🏦 Onde o Ouro Chinês Está Entrando? SGE Internacional (Shanghai Gold Exchange International) Permite que compras sejam feitas por bancos comerciais e não entrem diretamente nas reservas oficiais Importações via Hong Kong e refinarias suíças Operações fragmentadas permitem mascarar o destino final dos metais Swaps com bancos estatais chineses Ouro pode ser mantido fora do balanço oficial do PBoC, mas ainda sob controle estatal 🧩 Implicações para o Mercado Variável Impacto Esperado XAU/USD Pressão estrutural de alta Dólar (DXY) Enfraquecimento gradual frente a ativos reais Confiança nos Treasuries Redução da demanda asiática Geopolítica monetária Avanço da desdolarização nos blocos BRICS e emergentes 📌 Conclusão ExpertFX A hipótese de que o Banco Popular da China esteja comprando três vezes mais ouro do que reporta representa uma transformação silenciosa, porém profunda, na arquitetura monetária global. Este movimento alinha-se com a estratégia da China de promover o yuan como alternativa ao dólar em sistemas de pagamento internacionais — e consolida o ouro como o ativo neutro preferido diante de incertezas fiscais, geopolíticas e cambiais. Traders de ouro devem monitorar fluxos físicos, prêmios de arbitragem entre XAU/USD e Shanghai Gold Benchmark, além dos balanços semanais de importação via Hong Kong e refinarias suíças. 📈 Acompanhe no ExpertFX School relatórios técnicos semanais sobre liquidez institucional no ouro, zonas de acúmulo e atuação dos bancos centrais.

Bitcoin prices dipped by 0.93% in the last day after the premier cryptocurrency suffered another price rejection in the $110,000 range. This latest price pullback forces Bitcoin to maintain a consolidatory movement that has dominated the majority of last month drawing speculations about a potential market top. Interestingly, prominent market analyst Ted Pillows has weighed in on this discourse stating that historical data shows that Bitcoin is yet to achieve a peak price for the current market cycle. Bitcoin’s Consolidation: A Preparation For Final Bull Leg In an X post on July 4, Ted Pillows shares a bullish market insight following another Bitcoin price dip. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency seemed on course to resume its market uptrend after a significant price rebound from $99,000 in late June following weeks of downward consolidatory movement. However, another decisive rejection in the $110,000 indicates Bitcoin’s prices remain range-bound thereby worsening investors’ concern across the market. In interpreting this situation, Pillows has called for calm stating the recent price dip is merely a “leverage flush” that requires no panic. Using a visual study on the BTC weekly chart, the renowned analyst shows that the current and previous price pullbacks are part of a predictable pattern that has played out across previous Bitcoin cycles. The chart shows that after each halving event, Bitcoin tends to peak approximately 18 months (518 days) later. With the most recent halving occurring in mid April 2024, the expected peak for this cycle would fall somewhere around Q4 2025, specifically on October 13, 2025, consistent with historical performance. Furthermore, a recurring 140-day rally window is also depicted in the chart, usually forming the final leg of the bull run. In each previous cycle, this 10-bar stretch delivered parabolic price movements. If history is rhyming once again, Bitcoin is now within range of initiating this 10-week bull run, suggesting the equivalent rally seen in previous could soon kick in. How High Can Bitcoin Price Go? Based on Pillows’ recent analysis, Bitcoin may be gathering momentum for its final rally of the present market cycle. The extent of this anticipated uptrend remains unknown; however, the presence of bullish factors most notably the high influx of institutional investment and the US pro-crypto policies supports a range of sky scraping targets. For example, Pillows has previously shared that the popular stock-to-flow model which uses Bitcoin’s scarcity to project long-term price trajectory has predicted a potential price target of $368,925 by 2025 end. If this prediction holds true, Bitcoin investors are eyeing an estimated 242% from current market prices. At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade at $108,299 reflecting a 0.83% gain in the past week.

In a recent X post, CryptoWzrd highlighted that Litecoin (LTC) closed the day on a slightly bearish note. He explained that LTC’s price action remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s movement and overall market sentiment, with the $96 level standing out as the next resistance. Bearish Daily Close For Litecoin Amid Bitcoin Correlation According to CryptoWzrd, Litecoin closed the day with a bearish daily candle, while mirroring Bitcoin’s price action. This alignment suggests that LTC remains heavily influenced by broader market sentiment and BTC’s directional moves. Meanwhile, the LTCBTC pair ended the session indecisively, offering no clear signal of strength or weakness against Bitcoin at the moment. The analyst noted that for a sustained upside move in Litecoin, healthier and more constructive candles are needed on the LTCBTC chart. Without stronger signals from this pair, confidence in a breakout remains limited. Adding to the cautious tone, CryptoWzrd pointed out that a decline in Bitcoin dominance would be a critical factor in unlocking altcoin momentum, including for Litecoin. From a technical standpoint, Litecoin is currently aiming for the $96 daily resistance level. CryptoWzrd explained that a successful push above this barrier could open the door for a stronger rally, potentially extending toward the $128 resistance zone. However, that scenario depends on supportive market conditions and renewed strength across altcoin charts. On the downside, $80 stands out as the key daily support level that traders should monitor. A breakdown below this zone could trigger a deeper correction and delay any near-term bullish ambitions. Maintaining support above this level would be crucial in preserving the broader structure and keeping upward targets in play. Looking ahead, CryptoWzrd emphasized his focus on the lower time frames to spot potential scalp opportunities. By analyzing intraday chart formations, he aims to capitalize on short-term price movements while the broader market context unfolds. Traders following LTC closely will want to keep an eye on these short-term setups for quick entries and exits amid ongoing volatility. Intraday Volatility Signals Patience Over Action In conclusion, CryptoWzrd noted that today’s intraday chart for Litecoin was marked by volatility and a bearish tone, making it a challenging environment for clean trade setups. He emphasized the importance of waiting for a more favorable trading location before entering any positions, as the current conditions lacked clear direction and structure. According to the analyst, a move above the $90 intraday resistance would be a positive signal and could present a potential long opportunity. However, if the price gets rejected at that level, it may lead to further downside pressure. For now, CryptoWzrd remains patient, waiting for the market to establish a healthier setup before taking action.

Crypto analyst Ripple Pundit has boldly predicted that the XRP price can surge 35,000%. He alluded to two things that need to happen for the altcoin to reach this ambitious target. Factors That Will Make XRP Price Surge 35,000% In an X post, Ripple Pundit stated that the XRP price will jump by over 35,000% on the day that Ripple makes their banking license public. He added that the SEC announcement of dropping its appeal will also boost the altcoin further. Ripple has applied for a national banking license with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). This move is expected to expand the crypto firm’s services, which is bullish for the XRP price, considering the altcoin’s role in Ripple’s payment solutions. As such, XRP is likely to record more adoption, especially from institutional investors, as the crypto firm onboard more clients through this banking license. Crypto pundit Vincent Van Code also agrees that a Ripple banking license could have a massive impact on the XRP price. He recently predicted that the altcoin could rally to between $30 and $50. It is also worth noting that Brad Garlinghouse declared his 1,000% commitment to XRP, which indicates that the altcoin remains a huge part of the company’s plans. Meanwhile, as Ripple Pundit predicts, an SEC announcement of its decision to drop its appeal in the lawsuit against Ripple would also boost the XRP price. Ripple has already announced its decision to drop its cross-appeal. All that is remaining for the long-running legal battle to end is for the Commission to also drop its appeal. A conclusion of the lawsuit would finally remove the legal uncertainty that had plagued the altcoin for a long while. The Next Wave For XRP Starts Here In an X post, crypto analyst CasiTrades declared that the next wave for the XRP price starts from the $2.23 level. She claimed that the altcoin has continued to show strength during this consolidation. The analyst added that the Ripple bank charter application added serious momentum at just the right time. The news helped push XRP above the $2.25 resistance. Commenting on the current price action, CasiTrades stated that the XRP price is now seeing rejection at $2.268, which is the .382 retracement of the local wave. She remarked that this suggests that XRP needs another low before launching higher. The analyst said that based on the technical indicators, the next best entry is lining up at $2.235. She explained that this level is the .236 retracement and that multiple internal subwave targets are clustering there. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.22, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Popular market analyst and key opinion leader (KOL) Ted Pillows is projecting the crypto market to hit a $4.5 trillion valuation before Q3 2025 ends. This interestingly bullish forecast comes off the back of another Bitcoin price rejection allowing the total crypto market cap to maintain the choppy price movement seen in the last month. Rally Ahead? Crypto Market Tests $3.5T Barrier In an X post on July 4, Pillows shares an insightful technical analysis on the total crypto market cap. Using the daily CryptoCap chart from Tradingview, the renowned analyst highlights the recent formation of a bull flag hinting at an impending price breakout. For context, the bull flag is a classic bullish continuation pattern. It starts with the formation of a flagpole i.e. a strong upward price movement, as seen between early April to late May when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. This structure is followed by the “flag,” i.e., a descending price channel that reflects a period of consolidation. This market action is seen from late May to the present, as the crypto market cap entered a temporary pullback phase. Pillows’ analysis shows a complete bull flag formation. However, the crypto market cap must achieve a decisive price close above the $3.5 trillion mark which represents the upper boundary of the flag to confirm a price breakout. If this bullish scenario occurs, Ted Pillows predicts the crypto total market cap to surge to around $4.3 trillion – $4.5 trillion in Q3 2025. Considering its market dominance levels of 62.77%, Bitcoin’s market cap could also rise to around $2.82 trillion in such bullish conditions providing a market price of $141,800 per unit. However, it’s worth noting that the occurrence of an altseason amidst this crypto price surge could alter the projected market status for the premier cryptocurrency. Crypto Market Overview According to data from Coingecko, the total cryptocurrency cap is presently valued at $3.39 trillion following a 5.21% decline in the past day in line with the negative price changes with the Bitcoin market. However, the ongoing crypto bull run has delivered an impressive 51.24% gain over the past year. The market leader, Bitcoin, is presently valued at $108,118 reflecting a 1.46% loss in the last 24 hours as previously stated. The maiden cryptocurrency is also witnessing a 14.40% fall in daily trading volume indicating crash in transactions and market activity.

The Ethereum price is currently locked in a narrow trading range of around $2,500, with momentum stalling despite the market’s bullish expectations. In light of this, a leading crypto analyst warns that current price action lacks the strength needed for a powerful upward move, urging traders to remain cautious. The analyst notes that without a clear breakout signal, entering the market now could expose investors to potential downside risks. $2,800 Breakout Key For Ethereum Price Bull Rally A new analysis released on the X social media platform by market expert Daan Crypto Trades reveals that the Ethereum price has continued to trade within a well-defined price channel, currently holding above the $2,500 level at $2,527. The analyst emphasized that $2,800 remains the key breakout point that could trigger an Ethereum bull rally. The market expert shared a chart highlighting that ETH remains confined between a “range low” of $2,313 and a high of $2,736, with multiple failed attempts to break out of this tight structure. The chart also shows that the mid-range level of around $2,519 has become a critical point of control. Despite a brief rally that pushed the Ethereum price above $2,570 earlier this week, the cryptocurrency was still unable to sustain the upward move, slipping back below the $2,519 level before recovering to its current price of around $2,527. Daan Crypto Trades explains that the reason for Ethereum’s sluggish performance is its continued struggle to establish a solid footing in the $2,500 price region. Given the clear price imbalance in this zone, the analyst advises traders to exercise caution before entering the market. Within this range, traders may encounter increased price volatility and potential fakeouts, both above and below the key support and resistance levels. Given the unstable market environment, Daan Crypto Trades suggests that until Ethereum breaks and holds above the $2,800 mark, traders are likely to face more sideways action and unpredictable price swings. A clean breakout above $2,800 could be the key to the start of a bullish trend, improving conditions for ETH and pushing it out of its present downtrend. ETH Four-Year Consolidation Sees An End Market expert Mister Crypto has also shared insights on the current Ethereum price action. The analyst declared in a recent X post that ETH is on the verge of exiting a prolonged multi-year consolidation phase. His chart, which visualizes the cryptocurrency’s historical price movements, marks two key periods—a powerful 48x rally from 2018 through 2021, followed by a four-year horizontal consolidation range that spans from the 2021 top to the present day. The analysis suggests that this extended period of range-bound movement could be a prelude to a potentially explosive bull trend, similar to the breakout seen in the past. In line with this, Mister Crypto marks a large open-ended “??X” label on his chart, suggesting the next breakout phase is imminent—though the precise magnitude is left speculative.

Crypto is one of the most competitive niches in the world right now. And to be on top of crypto, you need to be the guy that takes balls. Justin Sun is exactly this guy. Not only he has balls, he is also a billionaire and the creator of one of the biggest crypto projects TRX ▼-0.73%. It’s time to look closely at TRX price analysis and Justin’s adventurous life. With a $26,8 billion market capitalization, TRON is sitting at #8 in CoinGecko charts. The casual volume of $470 million for the last 24 hours and the price of the coin at the time of the writing at $0.2832. This is something that not everybody can build. TRONPriceMarket CapTRX$26.93B24h7d30d1yAll time TRX Price Analysis and What to Expect When you look at the weekly time-frame chart of TRX, you just cannot unsee it. It is one constant grind upwards like a staircase to heaven, or financial freedom, some could say. (TRXUSDT) DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 When we jump to a smaller time frame, like daily, you can see a well-structured chart. First, we have a huge spike to the $0.44 price mark, then immediately cool off back to a consolidating channel between $0.22 and $0.26 mark. On the volume profile, we can see that this consolidation has been very strong from a volume perspective and will act as support in the future. Though it feels like it is not going to be needed. Right now, the price is staying very strong and consolidating in a new parallel channel between the $0.26 and $0.29 mark. (TRXUSDT) Although many people are talking against Justin and his project, TRX, there is no sign that either of them is performing badly. This leaves us with the question: Can TRON become a top 5 project or even replace Ethereum as the #2 by capitalization in the future? Justin Sun is also well-known outside the crypto world. He has been on the cover of Forbes, calling him “Crypto’s Billionaire Barker.” And let’s not forget that Justin Sun is worth a whopping $8.5 billion, putting him somewhere between the Top 10 richest crypto people. Bitcoin: The No.1 Crypto That Made Billionaires You cannot say the word “Crypto” without saying the word “Bitcoin.” BTC has been the backbone of every crypto enthusiast, even Justin Sun. Everybody has had BTC at some point in time or interacted with it in some way. That’s why it is important to support the #1 crypto coin and try to evolve it in every possible way. This is what Bitcoin Hyper is doing right now. It is a new project bringing the new crypto tech to the biggest and strongest crypto coin. In a way, wrapping your BTC creates the same amount of new BTC that you can use in various new ways, like DeFi, staking, or in decentralized exchanges. Boosting the transaction speed to another level and reducing fees without compromising security in any way. Periodically, the state of L2 is checked by Bitcoin’s Layer 1 to maintain synchronization. And at any time you want, you can always unwrap those coins and get your Bitcoins on the BTC chain. Bitcoin Hyper is powered by the native token $HYPER, which is currently on presale for $0.01215 per 1 $HYPER. Further, you can stake your coins for additional rewards for an amazing 403% APY. Overall, having the first Layer 2 on Bitcoin is a big deal, and most definitely, it is going to make noise through the crypto universe. To keep up with the latest news, you can join X and Telegram VISIT HYPER HERE DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways TRX price analysis. Justin Sun is sitting in the top 10 biggest crypto projects. What is the best presale right now? The post TRX Price Analysis: Justin Sun Tron Standing Strong at Top 10 appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The Bitcoin price action was largely sideways rather than strongly bullish for most of June. As of early July, the flagship cryptocurrency has maintained its movements around $108,000 – $110,000 region. While Bitcoin still retains its bullish market structure, recent on-chain data calls for a level of caution when investors are looking for opportunities in the market. Bitcoin Sentiment Recovers From Bearish In a July 4 post on the social media platform X, crypto analytics firm Alphractal revealed that the Bitcoin investor sentiment is “very bullish.” This on-chain observation is based on the Alpha Crypto Sentiment Gauge metric. As its name suggests, the indicator evaluates the emotions of investors in the market, ranging from extreme fear to euphoria. These emotions are represented as color-coded interpretations, usually in red, yellow, light green, and dark green, and these further represent investor sentiment ranging from bearish to very bullish. In the chart shared by Alphractal above, the appearance of a dark green colour signals that the market sentiment is “very bullish” at the moment. Prior to their July 4 post, Alphractal reported in a June 23 post that the market sentiment was flashing bearish signals. In the post on X, the analytics firm warned that the bears could be in trouble. Interestingly, the bears were indeed in trouble, as Bitcoin picked up more buying momentum, consequently liquidating several bearish positions. However, Alphractal explained that sighting green does not necessarily mean the market may be at a top. Instead, it signals that euphoria is taking over the market, which, according to the analytics firm, unlocks a wave of opportunities for Bitcoin buyers. Alphractal said: On the other hand, red zones are usually short-lived, but offer exceptional buy opportunities — like no other indicator can. As the market displayed, the bearish signal interpreted from the Sentiment Gauge eventually provided more buying opportunities. Growing market euphoria is not the only meaning that can be derived from a green signal in the market. It could also serve as a warning for potential overconfidence in the market as Bitcoin continues to gain value. If history is anything to go by, the market could experience rapid price expansions and an increase in investor risk-on approach. On the other hand, the “very bullish” sentiment could also precede sharp corrections, especially if fueled by crowd emotion, rather than market fundamentals. Whether this green sentiment signals the next price leg up, or the establishment of a market top is yet to be known — as a result, traders are advised to remain alert. Bitcoin Price At A Glance After its early show of strength on Thursday, Bitcoin has lost nearly 2% of its value in the past 24 hours. As of this writing, the premier cryptocurrency is valued at about $107,754.

Fresh off judicial victories, and achieving a cease fire between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration is on the verge of closing its initial chapter in its dramatic changes of America's foreign economic policy. The 90-day hiatus since Liberation Day comes to an end in the week ahead. Ahead of it, President Trump has indicated letters will go out to individual countries to announce the new bilateral tariff that will be imposed on US importers of their goods. The impact of the tariffs so far seems limited, but there are some preliminary signs of pass through. In April and May, US import prices, excluding oil, rose by an average of 0.3%. In the previous four quarters, they rose by an average of 0.1%. Federal Reserve Chair Powell has been explicit. The tariffs are expected to boost US measured inflation in the coming months, and that if it weren't for the tariffs, the Fed would likely have continued to cut rates this year. At the same time, the continued resilience of the US labor market underscores salience of the Fed's patience. Still, a September rate cut remains the most likely scenario. In a light week of economic data, the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand meet. The former is expected to cut, but RBNZ is expected to stand pat, even though its easing cycle is not over. US Drivers: The bearish dollar narrative appears based on four factors. First is the adjusting of positions and hedges away from the over-weigh dollar and US equity exposure that dominated international portfolios coming into this year. Second, is the Trump administrations penchant for tariffs even on countries that enjoy free-trade agreements with the US or have trade deficits with America. The US has shown itself to be unreliable. Third, the administration's "imperial presidency" and belief that monetary policy should be accountable to the executive branch. Fourth, a recognition that the Federal Reserve will be resuming its rate cuts around the time other G10 countries finish their easing cycle, or nearly so. Data: The high frequency economic calendar is between last week's soft employment report and next week's CPI (likely ticked up) and retail sales (which fell in April and May). May's consumer credit is due, but despite elevated household debt stress levels, consumer credit rose by nearly $17.9 bln in April, more than the cumulative credit extended in Q1. The minutes from June's FOMC meeting will be released. Since then, many in the market seem to be giving less weight to the 9 officials that that one or no cuts this year would be appropriate and instead focused on the two governors that were open to the July cut. The June federal deficit will be reported at the end of the week. The budget deficit in the first five months of the year was almost $654 bln, down from $692 bln in the same period last year. Bloomberg's latest survey found the median forecast for this year's deficit to be 6.5% of GDP vs 6.9% last year. Prices: If the Dollar Index is correcting the last leg down that began from the June 23 high near 99.40, the first Fibonacci retracement (38.2%) is near 97.55. The high last week was slightly above 97.40. The next retracement (50%) is around 97.90 and the 20-day moving average is about 98.00. On the other hand, a break of the July 1 low by 96.40 could signal the next push lower. Meaningful chart support might not be seen until closer to 95.00. EMU Drivers: The euro is being bolstered by portfolio shifts and the shift in interest rate differentials. Germany's two-year discount to the US fell by nearly 25 bp in the past couple of weeks and is below 190 bp for the first time in almost three months. However, it jumped back by almost 12 bp after the US jobs data, the biggest rise in nearly three months and returned to around 205 bp. It finished the week near 2.08%, the highest in two-and-a-half weeks. Germany's 10-year discount fell to near two-month lows around 160 bp and recovered to almost 176 bp before the weekend. Data: The eurozone economy struggles to maintain upside momentum after it grew by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q1. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey sees growth stagnating in Q2 and barely growing in Q3. The 0.2% decline in German factory orders reported at the end of last week does not auger well for Monday's industrial production. Yet for the last seven months, German industrial output has been alternative between monthly gains and losses and the swings have been mostly more than +/- 1%. For the pattern to hold, Germany industrial output must rise in May after a 1.4% decline in April. German industrial output rose a cumulative 1.2% in the first four months of the year. Italy, in contrast, which is often portrayed as the weak man in Europe, has reported a 2.9% cumulative rise in industrial production in Jan-Apr. It reports May figures on Thursday. Germany and France report May's trade balance. In the first four months of the year, the German surplus has averaged 17.5 bln euros (22.5 bln average in the year ago period). France has reported an average monthly shortfall of almost 7.1 bln euros (~6.2 bln in Jan-Apr 2024). Prices: The (38.2%) retracement of the euro's leg up from the June 23 low (~$1.1455) is near $1.1685 and the (50%) retracement is near close to $1.1640. The momentum indicators have not turned lower, but they appear poised to do so in the coming days. On the upside, initial resistance may be around $1.19 but the $1.20 level is more important. PRC Drivers: The PBOC is moderating the pace of the yuan's appreciation. Its chief tool is setting the dollar's daily reference rate. The dollar is allowed to move 2% from fix but rarely does. Trading platforms also reject prices that are or imply a move outside of the band. Since this year's dollar high was seen on April 10 slightly above CNY7.35, officials have gradually allowed the greenback to fall a little through CNY7.16, a 2.6% decline. Officials appear to be trying to slow the pace of the yuan's appreciation. Data: Most of China's high-frequency data do not have a fixed schedule but the CPI and PPI do. They will be released early Wednesday in Beijing. We argue that the deflation in producer prices is a symptom of over-investment, while the deflation in consumer prices is partly a reflection of this (see autos, for example), but also the decline in food prices. June lending figures will likely be released during the week. Through May, aggregate lending is up about 25% year-over-year, but it seems to not have been translated into stronger activity. It is running harder to stay in the same place. Prices: A broader dollar recovery will do the heavy lifting for Chinese officials. The CNH7.15 area may hold, and the dollar could work its way back to CNH7.1750, and possibly CNH7.20. The onshore yuan trades inside the offshore range (~CNY7.1550-CNY7.19). JAPAN Drivers: The yen was the weakest G10 currency in Q2, rising by about 4.1% against the US dollar. The Bank of Japan's ability to continue to normalize monetary policy has been stymied by the weaker growth profile and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of US tariffs. The role of US tariffs and threats to the Federal Reserve's independence has seen the relationship between US yields and the yen loosen. The rolling 30-day correlation of changes in the exchange rate and 10-year Treasury yields was in the 0.50-0.70 area throughout Q1 25 and spent most of April and May below 0.30. In June, it reached almost 0.50 and is now around 0.40. As the exchange rate's correlation with US rates improved, its correlation with the Dollar Index slackened. It was above 0.90 for most of May and eased to nearly 0.80. It had fallen to a three-year low in February slightly above 0.20. Data: Japan reports May labor earnings first thing Monday. Japan previously surprised economists my reporting a decline in May retail sales (-0.2% vs. median forecast in Bloomberg's survey of a 0.3% increase). Adjusted for inflation, on a year-over-year basis, labor earnings have fallen every month this year. Consider April. Real cash earnings for 2% lower year-over-year. In April 2024, they were down 1.2% year-over-year and in April 2023, real cash earnings were 3.2% less than the previous April (2023), when they were down 1.7% year-over-year. Japan also reports its May current account. Japan runs a current account surplus but a trade deficit. In April, the current account surplus was JPY2.26 trillion (~$15.6 bln), with an almost JPY33 bln trade deficit. Japan also reports June PPI. It eased by 0.2% in May for a 3.2% year-over-year pace. Producer prices may have peaked at 4.3% in February and March. Prices: The greenback’s gains after the jobs data reached the (50%) retracement target of the dollar's reversal on June 23 when it poked briefly above JPY148. That retracement objective was JPY145.35. The next retracement (61.8%) is near JPY146.00, and the band of resistance may extend toward JPY146.20. On the downside, the JPY144.00 offers the first level of support and below that is the JPY143.50-65 area. UK Drivers: The UK economy may go from the strongest in the G7 in Q1 to the weakest in Q2. Labour, which won a landslide election a year ago, is being torn by the shift to the right by the Starmer government, which has been forced into a series of policy reversals. A government shake-up is a normal course of events, but it may be resisted until after the summer. Sterling appreciated more than 6% in Q2 and reached its best level since 2021. Sterling's strength is a function of the US dollar's weakness. Sterling's inverse correlation with the Dollar Index in near 0.88, the upper end of where it has been since before Covid. Data: The UK reports May GDP and the details. The economy contracted by 0.3% in April, March's 0.2% expansion in full and beginning Q2 on soft footing. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 0.1% expansion in May. In April, contractions were reported in industrial production (-0.6%, led by a 0.9% decline in manufacturing), services (-0.4%) and an almost doubling of the trade deficit (-GBP7.03 bln vs.-GBP3.7 bln). Prices: The Starmer-Reeves drama spurred a tumble in sterling from a multi-year high on July 1 near $1.3790 to slightly below $1.3565 the following day. In so doing, sterling met the (50%) retracement of the rally from the June 23 low (~$1.3370). The momentum indicators are turning lower. Provided the $1.3700-10 area hold, sterling could move toward the (61.8%) retracement, which is about $1.3530. A break of that could see a push into the $1.3470 area. CANADA Drivers: At the end of January, the rolling 30-day correlation between the Dollar Index and the greenback's exchange rate against the Canadian dollar was below 0.20. It increased steadily and reached nearly 0.80 in the second half of May. It remains 0.70. Prime Minister Carney created a bargaining chit over the digital tax, and it seemed to be cathartic. US-Canada trade talks got more energy, and a deal is hoped to be finalized by July 21. Data: The highlight of the week comes at the end, with the June employment report. Canada's labor market is steadily weakening. The unemployment rate was 5.70% at the start of 2024 and 6.60% this past January and reached 7% in May. The participation rate was 65.6% in January 2024 and 65.3% in May 2025. Canada created about 60.7k jobs in the first five months of the year (vs 165k in the Jan-May 2024 period). Of those jobs, almost 43k were full-time positions (55.4k in the first five months of 2024). Prices: The Canadian dollar was the second strongest G10 currency last week, rising by about 0.65% against the US dollar. It was edged out of the top spot by the Swiss franc, after the Swiss appear to have won a carve out from the expected US tariff on pharma. The Canadian dollar often trades better in a firm US dollar environment than a weak one. It dipped below CAD1.3560 to appear the year's low near CAD1.3540 set in the middle of last month. Below there, the CAD1.3500 area may offer a respite. The momentum indicators have turned down and the five-day moving average is below the 20-day moving average, yet the unfolding of corrective forces could signal greenback upticks into the CAD1.3650-80 region. AUSTRALIA Drivers: The Reserve Bank of Australia is seen to be the most dovish G10 central bank in H2 25, with at least three rates cuts fully discounted. Yet, the Australian dollar reached a seven-month high in late June. Here, too, it is more about the US dollar. Changes in the Australian dollar and the Dollar Index inverse correlation is a little more than 0.75. It is not beyond around 0.80 in a year. In early February, before the US tariff bludgeon was threatened, the inverse correlation was less than 0.35. Data: The Reserve Bank of Australia and New Zealand meet on July 8 and 9, respectively. There is little doubt in the market's mind that the RBA will deliver the third quarter-point rate cut of the year. It will bring the cash target rate to 3.65%. The futures market has at least two more rate cuts discounted for this year. The RNBZ is a different story. It cut its cash rate by 125 bp in three moves starting last August and delivered another 100 bp of cuts in this year's three meetings. The swaps market is pricing in almost a 25% chance of cut, which might underestimate the risks. The RBNZ is more likely to surprise than the RBA. Prices: The Australian dollar buyers hesitated in front of $0.6600. The momentum indicators are stretched but do not rule out another push higher. Still, ahead of the weekend, it posted its lowest close of the week (~$0.6550). If the Aussie is retracing the rally since June 23 (~$0.6375) it must convincingly break $0.6535 to target a little above $0.6500 where the (38.2%) retracement is found. The 20-day moving average is closer to $0.6520. The next retracement (50%) is around $0.6480. MEXICO Drivers: Despite the fact that Mexico's inflation is above upper end of the 2-4% target, the central bank delivered its fourth consecutive half-point rate cut in late June, the Mexican peso hardly wobbled and may a new 10-month low within 24-hours of the decision. Even with the rate cut that brought the target rate to 8%, the carry against the dollar is sufficient to maintain one of the most lucrative trades of H1. The total return (currency plus interest rate pick-up) returned more an 16% in H1. Moreover, the three-month implied peso volatility is about 10.00%, lower than Scandis and Japanese yen in the G7 space, Data: Mexico reports June vehicle production and exports but the highlight is the June CPI and industrial production, which illustrate the conflicting forces the central bank and investors are navigating. Based on the CPI for the first half of June, the risk is that for the month as a whole, headline and core CPI edge higher, with more distance between it and the 4% threshold. Industrial output eked out almost a 0.1% gain in April. Vehicle production fell by 4.6% in April before rebounding by nearly 11% in May. The 24-month rolling correlation between changes in industrial output and vehicle production is mostly positive, as one would suspect, it was negative since early 2024, but turned positive, albeit slightly earlier this year. Prices: The dollar posted a break outside down day after the US employment report. It traded om both sides of last Wednesday's range and settled below its low on Thursday. Ahead of the weekend, the greenback extended its decline to about MXN18.6150, the lowest since last August. We have identified the MXN18.60 area as the next immediate target and have suggested a break could signal a move toward MXN18.40. We suspect it could draw closer to MXN18.20 in the slightly longer term. Resistance is seen in the MXN18.82-MXN18.85 area. Disclaimer

Bitcoin is facing resistance just below its $112,000 all-time high, struggling to break into price discovery as the market gains momentum. After reaching a high of $110,500 yesterday, BTC has retraced over 2%, but price action remains bullish. Traders are closely watching this consolidation, which may act as a springboard for a decisive move upward. According to top analyst Ted Pillows, multiple technical indicators support a bullish outlook. Notably, Bitcoin has just confirmed a bullish MACD crossover on the daily timeframe, which is often a precursor to upside continuation. Adding to the bullish case is Bitcoin’s highest monthly close in history, a key psychological milestone that could bring new inflows and spark renewed interest from sidelined investors. The current setup points to a market that’s primed for upside, provided buyers can reclaim the $112K level. As macroeconomic uncertainty fades and bullish momentum builds across the crypto space, Bitcoin could soon enter uncharted territory. All eyes are on the next few sessions as BTC tests critical levels with strong technical backing. Bitcoin Nears Crucial Breakout Phase Amid Bullish Momentum Bitcoin has gained over 10% since June 22, climbing from local lows near $98,000 to current levels around $108,000. This steady advance reflects renewed optimism across the crypto market, but the asset now enters a critical phase. Price action has stalled just below the $112,000 all-time high—a resistance level that has capped Bitcoin’s upside since late May. The coming days will be decisive, as a breakout above this level could trigger price discovery, while a rejection may open the door for a broader pullback. Despite the short-term uncertainty, the long-term outlook remains firmly bullish. Many analysts argue that an eventual move beyond $112K is inevitable, driven by favorable macro trends, strong institutional interest, and growing demand for spot ETFs. Still, caution is warranted. A failure to hold current support levels—especially the $105,000–$106,000 zone—could lead to a drop below $100,000 and shake out overleveraged positions. Ted Pillows remains confident, stating, “You can’t be bearish on Bitcoin now.” His view is based on a confluence of technical factors: a confirmed bullish MACD crossover, a clean support retest, and Bitcoin’s highest monthly close on record. These signals, combined with steady momentum, suggest that a new all-time high could be just days away. BTC Faces Rejection At $109K, Eyes Key Support At $106K Bitcoin’s price is consolidating after failing to hold above the $109,300 resistance level, as seen on the 4-hour chart. After briefly tapping above $110,000, BTC retraced and is now hovering around $107,961. This rejection suggests that the all-time high zone remains a major obstacle for bulls despite the ongoing uptrend. Price is now testing the 50 SMA (blue line), currently acting as dynamic support, while the 100 and 200 SMAs (green and red) below provide a broader safety net in the $106,000–$106,500 region. The key level to watch remains $109,300. A decisive break and close above this level on strong volume would likely signal the start of price discovery. However, if bears manage to push BTC below $106,000, we could see a retest of the $103,600 support—an area that has held multiple times since late May. Volume is relatively low compared to previous impulse moves, indicating that the current pullback may be a healthy pause rather than a trend reversal. For now, Bitcoin’s structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows intact. If bulls can defend this support zone and regain momentum, a new attempt at breaking $112,000 may come sooner rather than later. The next 48–72 hours will be critical. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The Chainlink price has impressed at times this year, but it has struggled to mount a sustained bullish run over the past few months. Most recently, the altcoin demonstrated a strong resurgence by moving from around $13 to just beneath $16 in the first half of June. However, the Chainlink price soon suffered a severe downturn, reaching as low as $11.2 by June 22. While the price of the LINK token has recovered above the $13 level, below are two of the critical levels investors should watch out for over the coming weeks. If Resistance Is At $15, Where Is LINK’s Next Support? In a recent post on the social media platform X, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared an interesting on-chain insight into the current setup of the Chainlink price. According to the market pundit, the altcoin could be approaching a critical resistance level around the $15 region. This on-chain revelation is based on the average cost basis of several LINK investors. For context, cost-basis analysis examines a level’s capacity to function as support or resistance based on the volume of tokens last acquired by investors in the price region. As depicted in the chart above, the size of the dot represents the amount of LINK tokens purchased within each price region and its corresponding strength. The bigger the dot, the larger the volume of purchased tokens, and the stronger the support or resistance. It is worth noting that the green dots are the support levels, as they are below the current price, while the red dots refer to resistance, as they are above the current price. According to data highlighted by Martinez, the Chainlink price faces a major supply barrier around the $14.88 – $15.32 region, where 10,440 addresses bought 89.63 million LINK tokens (equivalent $1.36 billion at an average price of $15.12). This region could prove to be a resistance to price, as investors with their cost basis around the level would likely sell as soon as they break even, thereby putting downward pressure on the LINK price. Furthermore, IntoTheBlock data shows that the Chainlink price could find significant support around the $12.87 – $13.26 bracket, where 20,260 investors acquired 53.91 million LINK tokens at an average price of $13.05. The rationale behind this is that, when LINK’s price returns to around $12.8, investors with their cost basis in and around this level are likely to defend their position by purchasing more coins, ensuring the altcoin stays above the support area. Chainlink Price At A Glance As of this writing, the LINK token is valued at around $13.16, reflecting an almost 4% price decline in the past 24 hours.

Solana is facing a critical test this week, consolidating in a tight range between $145 and $160 since Monday. The price action reflects strong buying interest but also hesitation as bulls struggle to reclaim higher levels. Despite holding above key support, Solana must break decisively above resistance to confirm a bullish breakout and continue its upward trend. Market momentum has favored bulls in recent weeks, but Solana’s inability to breach the $160 zone raises questions about the strength of this trend. Top analyst Carl Runefelt shared insights highlighting that Solana is currently ranging within a rising channel pattern—a structure that, while seemingly bullish, can often precede a breakdown to lower demand zones if support fails. This makes the coming days especially important for SOL’s trajectory. As macro conditions improve and Bitcoin flirts with new all-time highs, Solana is expected to respond in kind. However, technical signals suggest caution. A break below the rising channel could target the $128.50 support area, while a successful breakout above $160 could open the door to retesting local highs. Traders and investors alike are closely watching Solana’s next move in this high-stakes consolidation phase. Solana Holds Key Support Amid Rising Channel Formation Solana is currently trading below the $150 level, reflecting a notable 20% decline from its local high set in May. Despite this setback, the asset continues to hold a strong support base, signaling that bullish sentiment has not entirely faded. The broader market remains in a consolidation phase, with Solana showing signs of indecision as it moves sideways within a tightening price range. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, pointing out that a breakout above the key $150–$160 supply zone could spark renewed upside momentum. However, the current price structure suggests that Solana may not be ready yet to retest previous highs. According to Carl Runefelt, Solana is ranging within a rising channel—a pattern that can lead to sharp movements if broken. While rising channels can sustain bullish continuation, a breakdown below the lower trendline often results in accelerated downside moves. Runefelt warns that if Solana breaks below the channel, the next key support area lies around $128.50. This level has historically acted as a strong demand zone and could serve as the next target in the event of a bearish move. In the meantime, Solana’s consolidation reflects broader market uncertainty, with traders waiting for a decisive breakout or breakdown to guide positioning. A successful reclaim of the $150 level would improve sentiment significantly and could set the stage for a push toward the $170–$180 range. On the other hand, failure to hold above current levels may shift the narrative toward further downside risk. SOL Holds Range Amid Resistance Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $147.62, moving sideways within a tightening range and forming a potential rising channel pattern. The daily chart reveals that SOL has been unable to break decisively above the $155–$160 resistance zone, while strong support remains near the $140 level. Price action shows repeated rejections near the 100-day moving average (blue line), which now acts as dynamic resistance around $155.60. The 200-day moving average (red) sits further above $165.54, marking a long-term resistance area. Volume remains relatively low compared to early June spikes, suggesting market participants are waiting for a clear breakout direction. A push above $160 would likely trigger bullish momentum, potentially opening the door toward the $170 level. However, the rising channel identified by analysts suggests a possible downside risk if the lower trendline fails. If Solana breaks below the $145 support and falls out of the channel, the next target would be the $128.50 area, which previously acted as a demand zone in mid-May. Until then, bulls must defend current levels and aim to reclaim the 100-day SMA to maintain the broader recovery structure. The coming sessions may offer clarity as consolidation nears its resolution. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Ethereum is still struggling below $3,000 despite the Bitcoin price sitting close to all-time highs. At the current levels, Ethereum continues to look incredibly bearish, with sell-offs dominating the market at this level. While piling shorts are pointing to a possible relief rally, there is also the possibility that the price will crash back down from here. Crypto analyst Weslad maps out the ETH price trajectory using the ABCDE wave structure, showing a possible crash below $2,000. The Bullish Ethereum Scenario Weslad points to the 2021 Ethereum peak when the price reached $4,851 as the point when a large-scale symmetrical pennant had formed for the digital asset. Interestingly, this has continued for multiple years already, and continues to play out even in 2025, four years later. So far, the analyst believes that the altcoin has been in a long-term accumulation phase in a defined corrective range. Another important development is the formation of an ABCDE wave pattern. This pattern often predicts peaks and troughs, and depending on where the asset is in the pattern, it could point to a recovery or a crash. Presently, the crypto analyst puts the Ethereum price as being somewhere in a D wave, which is still bullish for the price. “Currently, price action is developing near point D, approaching the upper boundary of the pennant, a crucial area that could define the next directional move,” the analyst said. If this D wave plays out as expected, then the Ethereum price is expected to actually surge from here. The top of this pattern would put it above $3,500 before the move is completed. On the upper end of this is the formation of an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. This pattern has seen the $2,855 acting as key resistance, beating the Ethereum price down multiple times this year. However, if a sustained break is achieved above this level, in conjunction with a breakout from Wave D, then it is possible that the price does rally to new all-time highs above $6,000. The Bearish Scenario While the formation of the ABCDE wave count points to some bullishness for the Ethereum price, there is still the possibility that the price could go in the opposite direction. For example, after the D wave is completed, comes the next wave in the sequence, which is the E wave, and this is a bearish wave. As the crypto analyst explains, a temporary rejection at the neckline or pennant resistance would trigger an E wave retracement. In this case, the Ethereum price could see an over 30% crash, putting it back toward the $1,400-$1,800 level, where there is the most support. “Recent price behavior shows compressed volatility and increased buying interest on dips, reinforcing the possibility of an imminent directional breakout,” Weslad warned. “A decisive move outside this macro structure may mark the beginning of a new phase of long-term price expansion.”

A crypto donor who thought they were supporting Donald Trump’s January inauguration ended up losing over $250,000 to a well-disguised phishing scam. The fraud was pulled off using a fake email that looked nearly identical to a real address from the Trump-Vance Inaugural Committee. The fake Trump inauguration message looked nearly identical to real fundraising emails, with only a small typo in the domain name. With just a single character altered, the message passed as legitimate, leading the donor to send $250,300 in USDT.ETH directly to the scammer. How the Scam Worked The attack was subtle and precise. Scammers swapped one lowercase letter in the domain name, replacing an “i” with a lowercase “L.” This small change fooled the victim into thinking the message had come from Steve Witkoff, a real co-chair of the committee. Once the money was sent on December 26, 2024, it moved fast through various crypto wallets, making it harder to track. Tracing the Trail Back to Nigeria Thanks to blockchain tracing, investigators were able to follow the money. The crypto was routed through several wallets, eventually hitting an account on Binance registered in Nigeria. That account, under the name Ehiremen Aigbokhan, had no prior history. It only came to life when the stolen funds arrived. Authorities were able to freeze around $40,300 in one of the wallets and filed a civil forfeiture complaint in hopes of recovering it. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 Warning Signs and a Message from Authorities After the incident, Washington officials issued strong warnings. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Ferris Pirro warned the public that recovering stolen crypto usually requires a long and complex investigation. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.15T24h7d30d1yAll time FBI Assistant Director Steven Jensen added that these kinds of email impersonation scams are becoming more common, especially around political events and fundraising pushes. The advice was simple but serious: check everything before sending money, especially large crypto transfers. How the Agencies Responded Law enforcement contacted Tether and Binance, and both companies responded quickly. Working with U.S. agencies, they froze the flagged accounts before more funds could disappear. The Department of Justice highlighted this case as an example of what’s possible when crypto companies cooperate fast. Still, with only a portion of the stolen money recovered, it shows just how difficult it is to fully undo the damage once a scam like this is in motion. Federal investigators have launched a probe into the fake Trump inauguration scam after tracing funds to a Binance account in Nigeria. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Why It Matters This was not your typical scam targeting careless traders or random token buyers. It was a sophisticated, politically-themed attack aimed at someone trying to contribute to a presidential event. As political donations increasingly move into crypto, the stakes are getting higher. Bad actors are adapting and becoming more precise with their tricks. Add in evolving tech like AI-generated messages, and the risks only grow. Final Takeaway A six-figure crypto gift turned into a costly lesson because of one fake email. Authorities froze some of the funds, but most of the money remains out of reach. The case is a reminder that trust alone is not enough. The fake Trump inauguration email scam shows how bad actors can use political events to target crypto donors. You need to verify every small detail when crypto is involved, since one wrong character in an email can change everything. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways A donor lost $250,300 in USDT.ETH after falling for a phishing scam that impersonated the Trump-Vance Inaugural Committee using a nearly identical email address. The scam hinged on a single-character domain swap—replacing an “i” with a lowercase “L”—which tricked the victim into believing the request was legitimate. Blockchain analysts traced the funds through multiple wallets before they landed in a Binance account registered in Nigeria under a newly created Identity. Authorities froze roughly $40,000 in stolen funds, but most of the money remains unrecovered, highlighting how difficult crypto fund recovery can be. Officials warn that phishing scams tied to political fundraising are growing more common, urging donors to verify details before sending crypto. The post Donor Tricked Out of $250,000 in Crypto by Fake Trump Inauguration Email Scam appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The Ethereum Community Conference just wrapped up in Cannes, and it felt like a milestone moment. What started years ago as a grassroots developer gathering now looks a lot more like a serious summit. ETHCC has always been about ideas, but this year it doubled down on maturity, direction, and what it means to build for the long haul. From Paris to Palm Trees Moving the event from Paris to the Riviera was more than just a location upgrade. It signaled a shift in tone. Cannes isn’t just about red carpets and film premieres. It’s a place where industries go when they want to be taken seriously. That message wasn’t lost on the Ethereum crowd. Attendees traded the usual hotel conference rooms for seaside venues, villa meetups, and working lunches on terraces. The vibe was relaxed, but the conversations were focused. It wasn’t about big reveals or flashy partnerships. People came to talk about where Ethereum is headed and how to make it better. A New Kind of Conversation Throughout the week, the tone felt different from the usual crypto events. Vitalik Buterin was there, as always, but the spotlight wasn’t just on personalities. Panels dug into topics like network efficiency, privacy, and governance. You could tell the audience wasn’t just there to speculate. They wanted to solve things. The phrase “regen” came up a lot. It’s short for regenerative finance, but it also points to a bigger mindset. Rather than trying to disrupt everything, people are starting to think about how Ethereum can help fix what’s already broken, from issues that are in public infrastructure, social systems, or the environment. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in July2025 No Gimmicks, Just Builders Compared to other crypto events, ETHCC was refreshingly quiet. There were no influencer booths or DJ sets. Most of the attendees were developers, founders, or researchers. That gave the talks more substance and created space for real debates about Ethereum’s technical future. EthereumPriceMarket CapETH$303.29B24h7d30d1yAll time Plenty of sessions focused on updates to the Ethereum Virtual Machine and how to handle scaling without compromising decentralization. It was less about impressing the crowd and more about sharing work in progress. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Closer to the Real World Another theme that came through strongly was practical use. A lot of startups are starting to apply Ethereum tech to real-world problems. Not just payments or NFTs, but things like healthcare data, education records, and tools for non-profits. It’s clear that the Ethereum ecosystem is growing beyond finance. Some of these projects are still early, but the ambition is there to make crypto useful for people who don’t care about blockchains, just results. The Bigger Picture ETHCC 2025 felt like a turning point. Ethereum isn’t just trying to prove itself anymore. It’s building with intent, taking its time, and learning from what came before. The days of hype-first, product-later are fading. What’s replacing them is quiet confidence and a focus on making things work. In a way, that’s the biggest sign of progress. Ethereum isn’t chasing legitimacy. It’s growing into it. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways ETHCC 2025 in Cannes marked a shift from hype to substance, reflecting Ethereum’s maturity as a long-term platform. The event traded flashy displays for focused discussions on scalability, governance, and privacy, drawing mostly developers and researchers. The conference highlighted the rise of regenerative finance and Ethereum’s potential to improve real-world systems, not just disrupt them. There was a clear emphasis on applying Ethereum to non-financial use cases like healthcare, education, and nonprofit tools. ETHCC’s new tone showed Ethereum isn’t seeking outside validation, it’s now focused on building solutions that last. The post ETHCC 2025 Shows Ethereum’s Builders Are Focused, Not Flashy appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

As the market sees a Friday retrace, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a crucial area as support. An analyst suggests that the flagship crypto’s daily close could set the stage for a bullish end of the week despite potential volatility. Bitcoin Breakout To Come ‘Sooner Or Later’ At the start of the new quarter, Bitcoin has retested crucial levels, touching the $105,000 support and $110,000 resistance over the past four days. Amid its Tuesday pullback, the flagship crypto fell to a two-week low but managed to bounce from a crucial range. Analyst Sjuul from AltCryptoGems previously noted that BTC needed a strong rebound from the “most important” support and resistance area, between the $104,000 and $106,000 price levels, explaining that failing to hold this range would open the door for a drop to the range lows around $101,000. On Friday, the analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s price action after holding the key levels, which “provided the perfect entry for a bounce, just as expected.” Following this performance, he asserted that Bitcoin is expanding on its two-month Power of Three (Po3) setup, signaling that potential further expansion is ahead. Nonetheless, he pointed out that the flagship crypto is still trading in a two-month range, suggesting a volatile price action until the price successfully breaks out, which it has attempted to do earlier this week. “Since we are in a range, we are forced to respect the key levels of the range: high, mid, and low,” Sjuul detailed, adding that all eyes are currently on the mid-range, where bulls must step in to confirm the bullish move to the range high. Based on this, the analyst forecasted another move above the $110,00 mark, where “we have left a lot of unfinished business” and “plenty of liquidity lies.” He pointed to a huge cluster near the $111,000 area in BTC’s Liquidity Heatmap, affirming that “price is attracted by liquidity, so I am expecting that level to be visited sooner or later.” BTC Eyes Pivotal Closes After being rejected from the $108,000 at the start of the week, analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin broke out of two 2-week downtrends in the past 40 days but was rejected from the crucial 6-week diagonal downtrend, around the $108,000 mark, during the same timeframe. This week, BTC closed above this resistance twice, and daily closed above the $109,000 mark on Thursday. However, Friday’s pullback saw Bitcoin drop below the crucial level, falling to the $107,245 area. The analyst considers that a key retest of the pattern is in progress. He previously explained that any dipping into the top of Bitcoin’s pattern could “technically be considered additional retesting to further solidify the recently broken black diagonal resistance into new support.” Nonetheless, BTC must close today above the diagonal resistance for a successful retest. “Bitcoin is losing the diagonal for the moment. But if price Daily Closes above the diagonal, then this will have ended as a downside wick as part of a volatile retest. Upcoming Daily Close will be pivotal,” he stated. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is also on the cusp of making history as its price nears the “final major Weekly resistance” around the $109,000. Rekt Capital detailed that if BTC closes above this level, it would confirm a break from this major resistance, which would likely unlock a new all-time high (ATH). He concluded that, with the recent weekend volatility, “we won’t know until the very last moment heading into the new Weekly Close whether this level has been flipped into support or not.”

On-chain data shows Shiba Inu (SHIB) has its supply more concentrated on the largest holders than other assets like Ethereum (ETH) and Pepe (PEPE). Shiba Inu Has 62% Of Its Supply Controlled By Top 10 Whales In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Santiment has shared how some top coins currently compare against each other in terms of the percentage of supply held by the ten largest wallets on the respective networks. Below is a chart showing the trend in this metric for eight cryptocurrencies: Shiba Inu, Ethereum, Pepe, USDT, USDC, DAI, Chainlink (LINK), and Uniswap (UNI). As is visible in the graph, the stablecoin USDC has the lowest amount of supply concentrated on the top 10 addresses among these assets at around 27%. Chainlink and DAI come close with the metric sitting at 32% and 33%, respectively. Others like Uniswap and Ethereum, however, have a more significant part of their supply under the control of these humongous entities: 51% and 49%, respectively. One asset that particularly stands out is Shiba Inu, with a massive 62% of its supply belonging to the ten largest whales on the network. For comparison, the other memecoin on the list, Pepe, has the same metric at 39%. Generally, the centralization of supply on just a few hands isn’t a constructive sign for any cryptocurrency’s stability, as tokens signify power on the network. It’s especially relevant in the case of a proof-of-stake (PoS) asset like Ethereum. As Santiment explains, As a retail trader, it’s generally safer to hold coins with less supply held by the most elite whales. There is less risk of sudden dumps or price manipulation should an asset’s largest whales decide to exit their positions. Given this, the assets like Ethereum, Uniswap, and Shiba Inu that currently have a majority of their supply or close to it in the hands of the top 10 whales may not be in the best position right now. In some other news, the cryptocurrency market sentiment is on the verge of extreme greed, according to the Fear & Greed Index. The Fear & Greed Index is an indicator created by Alternative that inputs a few different factors to determine the investor mentality as a score lying between zero and hundred. As displayed above, the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed has a value of 73 at the moment. This corresponds to the presence of a strong sentiment of greed present among the traders. Historically, markets have often moved in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the crowd. The probability of a contrary move is especially strong in the extreme ends of the index. For now, the market is still outside of the extreme greed zone, but only by a couple of units. SHIB Price At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading around $0.0000115, up over 3% in the last seven days.

Ethereum (ETH) is up 4.2% over the past seven days, trading in the mid-$2,500 range at the time of writing. Although the digital asset remains down 19% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, some analysts are optimistic that it’s ready for a liftoff. Ethereum Enters Wyckoff ‘Liftoff’ Phase In an X post published today, crypto trader Merlijn The Trader noted that Ethereum appears to be following the Wyckoff Accumulation pattern and has successfully cleared both the ‘creek’ and ‘spring’ phases, potentially entering the ‘liftoff’ phase characterized by parabolic price action. In the Wyckoff accumulation pattern, the ‘creek’ represents overhead resistance where price struggles to break higher, while the ‘spring’ is a false breakdown below support, meant to trap bears and confirm strong hands. The ‘liftoff’ phase follows the spring, marked by a sharp recovery and breakout above resistance, signaling the start of a new bullish trend. The analyst shared the following Ethereum daily chart, which shows the cryptocurrency on the verge of a potential breakout, with its next major resistance at the $3,700 level. A successful breakout and retest of this level could set the stage for a new all-time high (ATH). Fellow crypto analyst Crypto GEMs also pointed toward Ethereum getting ready for a significant move to the upside. The analyst shared the following chart which compares ETH’s price action in 2025 to that in 2024. If Ethereum mirrors its 2024 performance, it could break above the $3,000 mark in the near term. However, not all analysts share this bullish outlook. For instance, noted crypto analyst Carl Moon shared a four-hour Ethereum chart showing the asset trading within a rising wedge pattern. He cautioned that unless ETH breaks out of this formation, it may face a drop to $2,200. To explain, a rising wedge pattern is a bearish chart formation where price moves upward within converging trendlines, indicating weakening bullish momentum. It often signals an upcoming breakdown, as buyers lose control and sellers push the price lower after the wedge is breached. ETH Network Sees Renewed Activity In a separate X post, crypto analyst CryptoGoos remarked that daily transactions on Ethereum are nearing ATH level for the first time since 2021. Typically, heightened network activity tends to precede major price movements. Analyst Crypto Rover echoed this view, noting that active addresses across the Ethereum network have hit a new all-time high. They added that ETH below $3,000 is “an absolute steal.” Meanwhile, Ethereum liquid staking is also inching toward historic levels, with 35.5 million ETH now locked. At press time, ETH trades at $2,522, down 3.8% in the past 24 hours.

Dogecoin’s price action caught traders’ attention this week. After dipping toward the $0.13–$0.15 demand zone, the meme‑coin shot higher, and a surge in derivatives data suggests many expect more gains. Trader Interest Climbs Around $0.19 Resistance According to market data, Open Interest jumped by 16% to reach over $2 billion. Options volume exploded by 400%. That kind of rise often points to big bets on upward swings. Right now, many eyes are on the $0.20 resistance level. If DOGE can close a daily candle above that line, it may clear the way toward $0.27. Dogecoin’s technical setup is drawing fresh looks from chart watchers. The Stochastic RSI crossed above 80, which can mark an overbought zone. Yet coins have stayed above overbought readings before when buyers kept pushing. Traders will want to see real volume behind any move above that descending trendline near $0.19. Without it, the rally may stall or give back gains. Whales Return With Spot Inflows Based on reports, Dogecoin saw a net inflow of $8.20 million into spot wallets. That marks a big shift after weeks of outflows. Large holders have been moving coins onto exchanges in the past, but now they’re pulling more in. In other cycles, fresh whale buys have lined up with mid‑term rallies. On‑chain metrics add another layer. Dogecoin’s MVRV Z‑score climbed back to 0.355 after hitting near‑historical lows late in June. That figure measures how much profit holders stand to make on average. A rising score hints that fewer holders are underwater, and that might draw in new buyers. Still, MVRV is backward‑looking. It can’t predict if price will break through key resistance. Network Activity Shows Mixed Signals Network stats tell a mixed story. Daily active addresses slid to 34 K, and transaction counts dropped to 15K as of July 3. That’s a sharp fall from the more than 500K addresses and transactions seen in the last week of June. Lower usage could sap the rally’s legs if retail traders don’t reengage soon. Even with these mixed signals, the mood toward Dogecoin is brighter than it was a week ago. Traders piling into options and hikes in Open Interest show speculative appetite is up. Large spot inflows show that whales have stepped back in. But network usage is lagging. If daily addresses and transactions don’t bounce back, bulls may find it harder to sustain the push. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Chainlink (LINK) is trading at $13.36, following a 3% drop in the past 24 hours, which places the altcoin approximately 74% below its all-time high of $52.70, recorded in May. Despite this short-term dip, LINK has held onto weekly gains of around 2.4%, suggesting broader market participants may still be weighing its long-term potential. While price remains rangebound, recent on-chain data indicates that LINK’s price action could be the result of diverging behavior between retail and institutional investors. Chainlink Institutional Accumulation and Supply Pressure CryptoQuant contributor “Banker” highlighted a growing structural dynamic in the LINK ecosystem in a recent QuickTake analysis titled “LINK’s Accumulation Standoff: Whales Build, Retail Waits.” The report outlines how LINK is currently in a consolidation phase between $12 and $15, where institutional actors have been steadily accumulating tokens, while retail users remain largely passive. This discrepancy may be playing a key role in capping upward momentum despite persistent LINK outflows from centralized exchanges. According to Banker, exchange netflows for LINK have remained negative at roughly -100,000 LINK per week, signaling that more tokens are being withdrawn from trading platforms than deposited. This behavior is typically associated with accumulation activity, particularly from larger holders or “whales” who may be positioning for longer-term appreciation. Historical spikes in retail deposits, such as the +5 million LINK deposited in March 2025, have proven to be exceptions rather than the norm, as retail activity has since remained subdued. Supporting this view, active LINK addresses have hovered consistently between 28,000 and 32,000 per day, while transaction counts average around 9,000 daily. These figures have not rebounded from previous activity peaks seen in late 2024, even as Chainlink’s oracle usage has expanded. Meanwhile, elevated levels of exchange withdrawals, peaking at over 3,000 per day in Q4 2024, remain a dominant force. With leverage metrics staying neutral, whales have been able to withdraw LINK without introducing significant price volatility, resulting in a 40% year-to-date drop in exchange reserves. Market Outlook Hinges on Retail Reentry or Whale Fatigue As LINK’s consolidation persists, the path forward may depend on a shift in market dynamics. Banker points out that a meaningful breakout will likely require renewed participation from retail traders, as evidenced by a spike in active wallet addresses and transaction volume. If these metrics rise and price breaks above the $15 price mark, momentum could build for a stronger upward trend. On the other hand, a decline in whale-driven withdrawals or an increase in exchange inflows could weaken accumulation, potentially pushing LINK back down toward the $10 level. Banker added: Until catalysts emerge, whales silently build positions, echoing Bitcoin’s 2023 consolidation before its 2024 surge. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Proponents of XRP are stepping up their pitch this week, calling the token “one of the greatest wealth transfers in history.” They argue it’s more than just another crypto. You’ll hear claims that XRP is already reshaping global finance and leaving old systems in the dust. According to influencer Coach JV, Ripple is building a whole new rails for money. He says XRP isn’t here to compete with banks. It’s here to replace them. He points out that transactions on the XRP Ledger settle in 3–5 seconds and cost fractions of a penny. That beats SWIFT transfers, which can take days and cost up to $50 per payment. XRP still trades around $2,25 but that figure, he argues, won’t stay low for long if the token keeps winning regulatory approvals and new partners. Ripple’s Technology Versus Legacy Rails Based on reports, RippleNet now counts more than 300 financial institutions in its network. Yet daily on‑chain volumes for XRP hover around $1 billion—small next to global cross‑border flows of roughly $150 billion per day. Banks are testing the tech, but most haven’t shifted large sums yet. That gap between tests and real‑world use is one reason XRP’s price has stayed below its all‑time high for seven years. Push For Regulatory Clarity XRP backers are watching the US carefully. They see growing buzz around spot XRP ETFs. Analysts like Eric Balchunas have given those filings up to 95% odds of approval by year‑end. If an ETF hits a US exchange, they say, more money will pour in. Ripple has also been chasing money‑transmitter licenses in Europe and Asia. Every new license, they believe, brings Ripple a step closer to mainstream use. Community Calls For Patience Coach JV keeps telling followers not to panic over a stagnant price. He uses phrases like “greatest wealth transfer in history” to drive home his point. In an earlier tweet, he promised “unimaginable wealth” for anyone who holds on. Other voices, such as commentator Edoardo Farina, point out that only about 1 to 2 million people hold XRP today. That number, they say, leaves room for 100 million or more newcomers—and more buyers often means higher prices. Analysts Caution Over Hype Even so, some experts urge caution. They note that bold forecasts don’t guarantee buy‑in from big banks or regulators. An ETF approval won’t force funds to rush in overnight. And test programs don’t always turn into full rollouts. For now, XRP remains a high‑risk play. Investors should track on‑chain metrics and regulatory milestones before getting swept up in the hype. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

The Ethereum price is flashing major upside signals as on-chain and market activity align toward a potential breakout to the $3,000 level. With crypto exchange balances falling to their lowest in nine years, stablecoin rails hitting record highs, and Spot Ethereum ETF inflows spiking last month, analysts now describe ETH as a “powder keg” primed for explosive movement. Ethereum Price Eyes A $3,300 Breakout The Ethereum price action is drawing attention as it continues to trade within a well-defined consolidation range, hovering near $2,555 at the time of writing. Based on a recently released technical analysis by crypto analyst Pentoshi on X social media, ETH could be on the verge of a significant move, with $3,300 marked as the next bullish target in the near term. The crypto expert’s chart reveals that since early May 2025, Ethereum has been locked between two key levels—a support zone around $2,190 and resistance near $2,750. This range has remained intact for over eight weeks, signaling a period of accumulation and low volatility after the sharp decline experienced in the first quarter of the year. Pentoshi has pinpointed $2,100 as the key downside risk in his bullish outlook, aligning closely with the lower support zone marked on the chart. While the next bullish extension and major resistance level has been identified as $3,300, the analyst expects Ethereum to make a move toward this price level within the next three months. He suggests that the current setup offers a favorable risk-reward profile, estimating a potential upside of roughly 3.2x compared to the downside risk. Analyst Calls Ethereum A “Powder Keg” In other news, Eric Conner refers to Ethereum as a “powder keg,” highlighting a growing convergence of fundamental factors that are building up pressure and positioning the cryptocurrency for a potentially parabolic move in the market. The analyst reports that Stablecoin activity on Ethereum has reached historic highs, with the total market capitalization of on-chain dollar-denominated assets hitting $251 billion—a record that also marks 21 consecutive months of uninterrupted growth. In parallel, Ethereum Spot ETFs have brought in $1.17 billion in net inflows during June alone, marking a major shift in investors’ appetite for ETH exposure. Even more notable, the amount of Ethereum available for trading is now at its lowest level in nearly a decade, with only nine million ETH tokens on centralized crypto exchanges. This nine-year low in exchange balances signals a drying float, where any fresh demand has an outsized impact on price. Conner has stated that large-scale crypto investors are beginning to take note. He reports that wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have accumulated more than 800,000 tokens daily during the peak week in June, marking the most aggressive absorption by whales since 2017. Currently, price action mirrors tension, and the analyst warns that if Ethereum decisively clears the $2,600 resistance level, the combination of supply scarcity, ETF-driven demand, and explosive stablecoin usage could unleash a violent and rapid breakout.

Highlights include Trump trade deadlines, FOMC Minutes, OPEC+, RBA, RBNZ, UK GDP and Canada jobs Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 7-11th July 2025 SAT: OPEC MEETING MON: German Industrial Output (May), Swedish CPIF Flash (Jun), EZ Sentix (Jul), Retail Sales (May), US Employment Trends (Jun) TUE: RBA & RBNZ Policy Announcements, EIA STEO; German Trade Balance (May), US NFIB (Jun) WED: “Liberation Day” Tariffs take effect (end of 90-day suspension), EU-US Tariff Negotiation Deadline (50% duty on all EU mimports), FOMC Minutes (Jun); Chinese CPI (Jun), PPI (Jun), US Wholesale Sales (May) THU: BoK Policy Announcement; Norwegian CPI (Jun), US Weekly Jobless Claims, Chinese M2 & New Yuan Loans (Jun) FRI: IEA OMR; UK GDP (May), Canadian Unemployment/Wages (Jun) OPEC MEETING (SAT): OPEC+ is to hold its confab on Saturday, 5th July, with delegates expected to approve a further 411k bpd output hike for August, in line with the pace of increases agreed for May, June, and July. Desks suggest recent months have seen the group pivot from price defence to a market share strategy, led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE, which sharply boosted exports in June amid regional security risks. In terms of compliance, while some members, notably Kazakhstan, remain above quota, Bloomberg data suggests most are producing broadly in line with targets, after prior overproduction was offset by voluntary restraint. Analysts note a further hike would add to oversupply risk into H2, with OPEC+ now focused on recouping share from US shale, which posted record output in April. Market attention will be on both the final size of the hike and any signals around quota enforcement or future policy direction. SWEDISH CPIF (MON): In May, CPIF printed at 2.3% Y/Y, cooler than the 2.5% the market expected, while the core Y/Y figure came in at 2.5% vs 2.6% forecast. For the Riksbank, the ongoing moderation provided them with enough confidence to cut rates by 25bpsas expected in June, at which point they noted that “inflation is expected to be somewhat lower than in the previous forecast”; specifically, cutting the 2025 CPIF Y/Y view to 2.4% (prev. 2.5%). Interestingly, within the minutes, Deputy Breman expanded on the 2.4% forecast, stating that a few tenths above/below 2% is not a deviation from target. For June, the focus will be on just how much of the monthʼs Middle East-related energy upside is seen within the headline, and then if the approaching US reciprocal deadline exerts any additional pressures on prices. For policy, the print is unlikely to have a significant impact, as while the Riksbankʼs forecast implies “some probability” of another cut in 2025, it is far from certain and will be in Q4 if at all. RBA ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE): The RBA is expected to continue lowering rates, with money markets pricing around a 96% probability for the Cash Rate to be lowered by 25bps to 3.60% and around a 4% chance for the central bank to maintain rates at the current 3.85% level. As a reminder, the RBA cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85% at the last meeting in May, which was widely expected, while it stated that inflation continues to moderate, the outlook remains uncertain and that maintaining low and stable inflation is the priority. The RBA board judged that the risks to inflation have become more balanced and noted that uncertainty in the world economy has increased over the past three months, and volatility in financial markets rose sharply. The board also assessed that this move on rates will make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive, while it remained cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply. RBA also released its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy during the last meeting, which stated that the escalation of global trade conflict is a key downside risk to the economy and that the global growth outlook was downgraded, while the central bank trimmed core domestic inflation forecasts and slightly raised its unemployment view. Furthermore, RBA Governor Bullock said during the press conference that the RBA is prepared to take further rate actions if required and that there was a discussion between a 50bps cut or a 25bps cut, as well as a discussion on holding rates or cutting. Bullock also stated that more adjustments are possible, but couldnʼt say where the cash rate will end up and noted she does not endorse market pricing, although she commented that if inflation continues to come down, that would offer room to lower rates further. As such, the data points to the likelihood of a cut given that Weighted CPI YY in May softened to 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.4%), while other key releases also support the case for rate cut with Employment Change in vMay at a surprise contraction of -2.5k vs. Exp. 22.5k (Prev. 89.0k) and after GDP in Q1 disappointed with Real GDP QQ at 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%) and Real GDP YY at 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.3%) EU-US TARIFF NEGOTIATION DEADLINE (TUE): US President Trump set a July 8th deadline for a provisional EU-US trade deal or a 50% reciprocal tariff for the bloc. Talks, led by EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic and USTR Greer, focus on securing a 10% baseline tariff in exchange for immediate relief for key EU exports, including autos, steel, and semiconductors. Brussels is pushing for a UKstyle carve-out offering upfront exemptions, which EU diplomats cited by Politico say is essential to secure member state backing. Politico adds that the Commission is also pressing for sector-specific reductions, particularly in pharmaceuticals and aerospace, though officials see limited scope for movement from Washington. Sefcovic is expected to offer conditional acceptance of the 10% tariff in return for near-term concessions, but several details are likely to be ironed out after the deadline. The EU is said to be weighing four possible outcomes in its tariff talks with the US, according to Politico, citing two diplomats. The worst-case scenario is a total breakdown, triggering a jump in tariffs to 50% and new levies on sectors like pharma and semiconductors. A more moderate outcome would see talks continue over the summer with current tariffs in place. The best case is a broader framework deal including cooperation with China, though this would likely involve accepting some US-favoured terms. A near-term “agreement in principle” could delay EU retaliation — currently paused until July 14th — into the medium term. Diplomats view a full breakdown as unlikely, with negotiations expected to carry on past the July 8th deadline if needed. Within the EU, Berlin and Rome support a swift deal even if it requires concessions, while countries like Spain have faced pressure from Trump over defence spending and may be more cautious. Try Newsquawk free for 7 days CHINESE INFLATION (WED): China releases its latest inflation data on Wednesday, with headline CPI forecast at 0% Y/Y (prev. – 0.1%), -0.1% M/M (prev. -0.2%), and PPI at -3.1% Y/Y (prev. -3.3%). Recent months have seen both CPI and PPI in negative territory, a trend analysts expect to persist in June amid ongoing declines in food prices. On the producer side, PPI is set to remain in deflation for a 33rd consecutive month, reflecting persistent excess capacity and intense price competition across key industries, according to ING. The desk adds, “Extreme price competition, one of the main factors behind deflationary pressure, has recently caught the attention of policymakers, who will aim to crack down on disorderly price competition moving forward.” RBNZ ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The RBNZ is likely to keep rates unchanged, with money markets pricing around a 75% probability that the Official Cash Rate will be maintained at the current 3.25% level and just about a 25% chance for a 25bps cut. As a reminder, the RBNZ delivered its 6th consecutive cut at the last meeting in May, which was widely expected and noted that inflation is within the target band, core inflation is declining, and that it is well placed to respond to domestic and international developments. The central bank lowered its OCR projections for the entire forecast horizon and cut its June 2026 CPI view at the meeting, while the minutes from the meeting noted the Committee discussed the options of keeping the OCR on hold at 3.50% or reducing it to 3.25% and noted that the full economic effects of cuts in the OCR since August 2024 are yet to be fully realised. Furthermore, it was revealed that the decision was made by a majority of 5 votes to 1 and Governor Hawkesby commented that the decision to hold a vote on rates was a healthy sign and not unusual at turning points, as well as stated that central projections are wide enough not to have a bias regarding what the next step is at the next meeting and the key message is that they have come a long way and are well placed to respond to developments but are not pre-programmed on moves now. This suggests the central bank will like pause in the immediate term, while comments from RBNZ’s Assistant Governor Silk also suggest a lack of urgency to continue cutting rates as she noted that interest rates are in the 2.5%-3.5% neutral band with the impact of past cuts yet to flow through and a strong export sector, are arguments for not going below neutral, as well as noted that data will decide when or if they cut further from here. As such, the key data releases since the last meeting would support the case for a pause as New Zealand GDP for Q1 topped forecast with QQ GDP at 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.7%, Rev. 0.5%) and YY GDP at -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -1.1%, Rev. -1.3%). FOMC MINUTES (WED): At its June meeting, the FOMC kept rates at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, with its 2025 median rate projection left unchanged at 3.9%, signalling 50bps of cuts this year. The 2026 and 2027 dots rose to 3.6% and 3.4% (from 3.4% and 3.1%). Seven members now expect no cuts this year (up from four), two see 25bps of cuts (down from four), eight foresee 50bps (down from nine), and two expect 75bps (unchanged). GDP forecasts were lowered to 1.4% for 2025 (prev. 1.7%) and 1.6% for 2026 (prev. 1.8%), while unemployment forecasts rose, except for the long run. Headline and core PCE inflation forecasts increased, with 2025- end headline inflation at 3.0% (prev. 2.7%) and 2.4% for 2026 (prev. 2.2%). The Committee said uncertainty has “diminished further but remains elevated,” removing prior warnings about stagflation risks, though higher inflation and lower growth keep those risks present. At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell largely repeated familiar remarks, saying a patient, wait-and-see approach remains appropriate. He emphasised that projections are uncertain and not a fixed plan, recommending a focus on nearterm forecasts. Powell said the time will come for more confidence, but cannot specify when. Given the current labour market and falling inflation, holding rates was the right course, he said, and he expects to learn more over the summer and make better decisions after a “couple of months.” Powell noted favourable inflation over the past three months but warned of upcoming tariff mpacts and higher consumer costs, underscoring the need for patience. He said rates must stay high to bring inflation down fully and described policy as “modestly restrictive,” similar to his May comments that policy is “modestly or moderately restrictive.” Since then, speakers have generally toed that line; however, the influential Fed Governors Waller and Bowman both suggested that July may be the time to consider adjusting the policy rate, if inflation pressures remain contained. May’s core PCE data rose slightly above expectations, but still indicated muted inflation (the monthly rate printed +0.2% M/M vs an expected +0.1%), and while the real consumer spending fell by 0.3% (steepest decline this year), suggesting weakening demand, analysts said the data supports the view that the Fed can remain patient, with limited pressure to tighten policy further amid subdued price pressures. Additionally, stronger-than-expected jobs data for June saw markets scale back their expectations of Fed rate cuts ahead, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged hold. At the time of writing, money markets have virtually priced out any prospects of a July rate reduction, and through to the end of the year, pared pricing back to a little over two rate cuts, aligning with the Fed’s view. US LIBERATION DAY DEADLINE (WED): The 90-day tariff pause on US imports, authorised as part of US President Trumpʼs “Liberation Day” policy, expires Wednesday, with no extension signalled. US President Trump said they will start sending letters regarding tariffs, and 10 to 12 countries will get a letter on Friday, 4th July, with tariffs to range from 10%-20% and 60%-70%, while countries are to start paying the new tariff on August 1st. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said to expect a flurry of trade deals before July 9th and expect to see about 100 countries get a minimum 10% reciprocal tariff, while he added they are going to be announcing several deals. Analysts at CapEco suggest, “Given the limited progress in concluding trade negotiations since Liberation Day, there is a risk that huge tariffs will be imposed on 9th July after the 90-day pause expires. We suspect that further last-minute concessions will be made to permit extensions for most countries, but a few of the “worst offenders” may be singled out for punitive treatment. Markets seem to be positioned for a fairly benign outcome, implying a risk of some near-term turbulence if that fails to materialise.” BOK ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): Market participants will be eyeing to see if the central bank pauses and keeps the 7-day Repo Rate at the current 2.50% level, or continues to lower rates following a 25bps cut at the last meeting in May. The prior decision to cut rates was made unanimously, and the BoK said it would maintain its rate cut stance to mitigate downside risks to economic growth, as well as adjust the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts, while it is to closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy environments. The central bank also noted that South Korean exports are seen continuing to slowdown and that a high degree of uncertainty in the trade environment is a risk to growth, while Governor Rhee said following the meeting that they saw bigger room for further cuts given the downside risks to growth and that four board members saw room for further cuts for the next three months. The language clearly points to further rate reductions in the near term, although the central bank may prefer to hold off on an immediate cut next week, given the proximity to its last cut and to assess the impact of past action. Furthermore, the ongoing global trade uncertainty and the recent change of leadership with President Lee Jae-myung marking his first 30 days in office this week, could also influence the central bank to pause, given that Lee had pledged a ‘bold’ economic policy. Additionally, key data releases also favour the argument for a pause with firmer than expected CPI Y/Y in June at 2.2% (exp. 2.1%), although the central bank had attributed the June CPI acceleration as mainly due to base effects and noted the CPI gain is to ease if the oil and NORWEGIAN CPI (THU): In May, CPI-ATE printed at 2.8% Y/Y, cooler than the 2.9% the market forecast and continuing the recent moderation in the series. A moderation that was behind the surprise 25bps cut by the Norges Bank in June to 4.25%; explicitly, the MPR stated “the committee gave special attention to the fact that underlying inflation has declined…”. Alongside that, the Norges Bank forecasts lower inflation for the remainder of 2025 than previously expected, resulting in a cut to the forecast within the MPR. Specifically, for June, the Norges Bank now expects CPI-ATE at 3.1% vs the 3.2% they forecast in the Q1 MPR. For inflation itself, they look for 3.1% (prev. forecast 2.9%) from 3.0% in May, an uptick that is due to elevated energy prices in the period. For the Norges Bank, given their guidance for as many as two more 2025 cuts (skewed to just one), the series will come under greater scrutiny in the event of an upward rather than a downward surprise vs consensus. UK GDP (FRI): Expectations are for M/M growth in May to pick up to 0.1% from the 0.3% contraction seen in April. As a reminder, the prior release saw a larger-than-expected contraction in growth on account of payback from the solid showing in Q1, which was boosted by the front-running of exports ahead of US tariffs. Pantheon Macro holds a consensus view and expects growth to be underpinned by “a rebound in legal and real estate activity”, boosting services output. That being said, the consultancy concedes that its projection for 0.2% Q/Q growth looks “increasingly ambitious”, given that GDP would need to rise by 0.3% M/M in June. Holding a more pessimistic view for this month’s report is Investec, which expects growth to contract by 0.2% M/M. The desk notes that retail sales metrics and car production data point to contractions in the services and manufacturing sectors. Looking beyond the upcoming releases, Investec notes that it expects the can to be kicked down the road when it comes to global tariffs, and the current 10% baseline tariff remains in place. Under such a scenario, it expects “economic momentum to pick up in H2, helped by further rate cuts”. However, there are clearly huge risks around this call. From a policy perspective, a soft outturn could heighten expectations for an August cut. However, greater concern by the MPC is currently being placed on the softening labour market and elevated inflation CANADIAN JOBS REPORT (FRI): With the BoC on pause and avoiding forward guidance, the central bank is taking it meeting-bymeeting due to economic uncertainty. The upcoming jobs report will help shape expectations for BoC easing. Money markets are only pricing in one further rate cut by the end of the year. However, a particularly weak report may start to see two rate cuts priced in with more certainty. The BoC highlighted that the labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, with unemployment rising to 6.9%. It also warns that the economy is expected to be considerably weaker in Q2. BoC Governor Macklem noted that what happens to the labour market next will depend critically on what happens with the Canada-US trade relationship. It will also depend on how much Canada can expand trade within our country and overseas. Macklem also warned that exportoriented businesses quickly cut their hiring plans significantly in response to US tariffs. And with a lag, other businesses have scaled back their hiring intentions. “If these cutbacks materialize, we can expect overall employment to weaken further. We are watching closely for signs that weakness in the job market is broadening.” Copyright © 2025 Newsquawk Voice Limited. All rights reserved. Registered Office One Love Lane, London, EC2V 7JN, United Kingdom · Registered Number 12020774 · Registered in England and Wales. newsquawk.com · +44 20 3582 2778 · info@newsquawk.com Become a Member of Global Traders Association – Click HERE

SUI is moving decisively on the chart, breaking through key levels with rising momentum, signaling a shift in sentiment and renewed bullish interest. With volume picking up and structure turning clean, SUI could be setting the stage for a move if this momentum holds. Immediate Targets In Sight — But Can SUI Push Further? In an X post, crypto expert and moderator, Tinkerbell, shared an update that SUI has broken decisively above the $3.00 mark, surging to $3.08 and notching a 9% gain on Thursday, July 3rd. The price action reflects a breakout on the chart, which shows strong momentum, is backed by rising volume and steady buying pressure, signaling that bulls are firmly in control. If this strength continues, Tinkerbell highlights the $3.25 as the next immediate target, followed by the $3.50 level, both levels could act as stepping stones for further upside. Another analyst, Professor, mentioned that SUI has come alive on the charts, and it’s pumping. With a sharp 11.08% gain in the past 24 hours, the token is currently trading at $3.02, marking one of the strongest day performances across the market. SUI broke through the key resistance level, a zone that had capped upside momentum for weeks. This breakout arrived quietly, with strong bullish momentum, increased volume, and a shift in sentiment that now favors the bulls. Professor also highlighted in another X post that a textbook bullish reversal for the SUI 1-hour chart. After finding strong support around $2.65, the price began forming a series of higher lows, signaling a clear shift in momentum. The structure, paired with rising volume, pointed to growing buyer confidence. This setup led to a breakout, with SUI blasting through short-term resistance at $2.90 and reaching as high as $3.04. This move established a new high, signaling the potential start of a sustained uptrend. Momentum Indicators Point To A Cautious Climb SUI shows a gradual uptrend on the daily chart, currently trading at $3.02. Cleanwater, a crypto analyst, pointed out that after touching lows near $2.50 in late June, the price has steadily climbed, forming a series of higher lows and attempting to establish a recovery pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 52.94, suggesting neutral momentum, placing SUI in the middle of the momentum range between overbought and oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD shows bullish divergence, indicating possible strength building on the surface that is not yet at the breakout levels. SUI key resistance is around $3.50, which will be a crucial level to clear if bulls want to sustain upward momentum. On the downside, $2,80 is a support zone that needs to hold for this recovery structure to remain intact. Market expert Trade4ddict also noted that SUI has confirmed an ascending triangle breakout on the 4-hour chart, showing a continuation of bullish momentum. After a brief retest, price action has turned green with trend bars painting a promising picture for the days ahead. The analyst stated that the chart looks very bullish, and he has entered a long position targeting the $3.74 level, which aligns with previous highs and offers a clean objective if this bullish wave continues.