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Market tactician Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) has put a statistical spotlight on Bitcoin’s habit of dozing through June before rewarding – and sometimes punishing – traders in the following quarter. “BTC June has historically been a pretty slow month,” he wrote, noting that the just-ended period was no exception, with spot prices meandering in a narrow band and finishing “pretty flat.” The comment was accompanied by a Coinglass heat-map of monthly returns that reaches back to 2013 and vividly illustrates the summer pattern he is talking about. What July Hides For Bitcoin The numbers support the observation. According to the Coinglass dataset, the mean return for June over the past twelve years is essentially zero (-0.12 %), while July posts a respectable +7.56% on average and an even stronger +8.90 % on the median. August cools to a modest +1.75% mean, and September is where the sell-side pressure historically bites, averaging -3.77% with a negative median of -4.35%. A simple frequency count underscores the asymmetry: July has finished green in eight of the last twelve years, whereas August and September managed only four positive outcomes each. Years that veterans still recall – 2017’s +65.32 % August melt-up followed by a -7.44 % September slide, or 2020’s +24.03 % July rally that surrendered to a -7.51 % September pullback – appear to have etched the “big flush-out” narrative into collective memory. Daan’s takeaway is behavioural rather than predictive: “August & September are where we often see a big flush-out but are also the dips you often want to be buying into the end-of-the-year rally… it’s good to be aware of these seasonalities. That way you can focus more on the larger timeframe and won’t get spooked or get over-excited too easily.” The comment arrives just as Bitcoin tests a cluster of long-timeframe resistances. In a post on Saturday he reminded followers that BTC is “close to all-time high but at resistance… [it] is yet to close a weekly or more than two consecutive daily candles above that resistance. Once it does, we can start getting excited for a larger move.” The seasonality conversation matters because it collides with a crowded macro calendar and a notoriously illiquid holiday stretch. While historical averages do not guarantee future performance, the heat-map suggests that directional conviction often returns in October – the best-performing month on the table with a +21.89 % mean. For traders, that leaves a two-month corridor in which whipsaw moves are common and positioning discipline becomes paramount. Daan extends the framework to altcoins via the TOTAL3 index (crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ether). “The TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap has held on to its local support but is still not showing any clear trend… to really get this high timeframe move going you want to break those local highs above the ~$950 B mark. At that point you can start aiming for cycle highs.” Whether 2025 repeats the seasonality script will hinge on the macro environment, ETF inflows and, above all, Bitcoin’s ability to convert resistance into fresh price discovery. Until that weekly close arrives, seasoned traders appear content to keep summer expectations firmly tethered to the data – exactly as Daan recommends. At press time, BTC traded at $107,344.

📉 Cautela ou corte agressivo? Bancos divergem sobre próximos passos do Fed em 2025 Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado – Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE A mais recente tabela do Wall Street Journal com as projeções de 18 instituições financeiras globais sobre os próximos movimentos do Federal Reserve revela um cenário de divergência profunda quanto ao timing e à intensidade dos cortes de juros esperados para 2025. Enquanto alguns bancos como MUFG, UBS e Wells Fargo projetam cortes de até 100 pontos-base (bps) já a partir de julho ou setembro, casas como Bank of America, BNP Paribas e Morgan Stanley não esperam cortes neste ano — evidenciando a incerteza que domina o ambiente macro dos EUA. 📊 Visão geral das projeções para 2025 Corte em setembro: Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, RBC, UBS e Wells Fargo (com cortes de 75–100 bps) Corte em dezembro: Barclays, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Nomura, LH Meyer, Oxford Economics (em geral 25 bps) Corte em outubro: S&P Global e TD Securities (50 bps) Corte já em julho: MUFG (100 bps) Sem cortes: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas 💥 Impactos no mercado financeiro global 🪙 Ouro (XAU/USD) Expectativas de corte agressivo, principalmente a partir de setembro, reforçam pressão compradora no ouro, apesar da consolidação recente. O nível de suporte técnico se mantém entre US$ 3.280 e US$ 3.300, com retomada esperada após Payroll e ISM. Opções estão baratas — volatilidade implícita abaixo da média histórica favorece proteção de downside ou compra via call spreads. 💵 Dólar (DXY) O índice DXY já acumula queda de mais de 10% no ano, seu pior início desde 1973. Um corte antecipado (julho ou setembro) poderia acelerar a desvalorização, principalmente frente a moedas emergentes e commodities-linked. 📉 Treasuries O mercado de juros já precifica 2 a 3 cortes em 2025. Com yields do 10Y recuando para a faixa de 4,25%, há espaço para forte valorização dos títulos longos caso os cortes comecem antes do esperado. 📈 Ações e Risco Com expectativas de estímulo monetário, o rali de Nasdaq e S&P500 deve continuar enquanto não houver reversão dos fundamentos. O setor de tecnologia e IA permanece como líder, mas o início do blackout de recompra em julho pode gerar maior volatilidade. 📅 Principais datas e catalisadores Evento Data Relevância ISM Manufacturing (junho) 2 de julho Avalia força da indústria Payroll (junho) 4 de julho Direciona o corte de julho Deadline tarifas Trump 9 de julho Risco inflacionário/comercial Temporada de lucros Q2 meados de julho Confirma saúde corporativa FOMC (reunião Fed) 30 de julho Atualização de tom e projeções 🧠 Opinião do analista Igor Pereira A divergência nas projeções mostra que o Fed está operando no escuro, e o mercado também. Em minha visão, há espaço para até 75 pontos-base de corte em 2025, com início provável em setembro, condicionado à deterioração nos dados de emprego e inflação persistentemente abaixo da meta. O mais importante agora é o Payroll de junho. Um número fraco, aliado à desaceleração da atividade, pode forçar Powell a preparar o mercado para um corte já em julho — movimento que fortaleceria ainda mais o ouro e pressionaria o dólar. Recomendo ao trader/investidor: Manter exposição gradual a ouro e ativos defensivos; Considerar posições longas em Treasuries entre 5 e 10 anos; Reduzir posições em dólar frente a moedas como EUR, CHF e AUD; Focar em operações táticas com base nos eventos de julho.

🌐 Trimestre de Euforia: Ações, Cripto, Ouro e Títulos disparam enquanto o dólar vive seu pior início de ano desde 1973 Análise PREMIUM Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro – Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE O segundo trimestre de 2025 encerrou com um forte rali coordenado nos mercados globais, marcado por valorização expressiva em ações, ouro, Bitcoin, petróleo e títulos públicos dos EUA, enquanto o dólar sofreu uma das maiores desvalorizações trimestrais das últimas décadas. Esse cenário, aparentemente desconectado da realidade macroeconômica frágil dos Estados Unidos, tem uma explicação técnica: “bad news is good news” voltou ao centro da tese de risco, com mercados interpretando dados ruins como garantia de cortes de juros iminentes pelo Federal Reserve. 📈 Desempenho dos ativos no 2º trimestre de 2025 Ativo/Indicador Desempenho no trimestre Destaques Nasdaq 100 +11,6% Melhor trimestre desde Q1 2023 S&P 500 +8,9% Fechamento em máximas históricas Bitcoin (BTC) +32,4% Máxima mensal recorde Ouro (XAU/USD) Lateralizado (~US$ 3.320) Pressionado apesar do dólar fraco Petróleo (WTI) +10,2% em junho Melhor mês desde set/2023 Dólar (DXY) -7,8% no trimestre Pior trimestre desde 2022 Treasuries (curva 10Y) -17 bps Demanda forte por proteção 🔍 O que explica esse comportamento sincronizado? Queda da incerteza política e comercial global A trégua nas tensões entre Israel e Irã, o adiamento de tarifas americanas (data crítica: 9 de julho) e o arquivamento de projetos como o S899 reduziram a percepção de risco geopolítico. Fraqueza nos dados macro dos EUA Indicadores de atividade (ISM, payroll, vendas no varejo) decepcionaram, tanto no campo hard data quanto soft data, reforçando a expectativa de que o Fed será forçado a cortar juros. Alta expectativa de cortes em 2026, com 2025 se tornando “vivo” Embora a projeção do Fed continue em 2–3 cortes em 2025, os mercados começaram a antecipar o primeiro corte para setembro, e agora quase 20% já apostam em corte em julho, dependendo do Payroll desta semana. Fluxo técnico em ações: recomposição via Mag7 e inteligência artificial Embora as “Magnificent 7” tenham liderado o trimestre, ainda estão atrás do S&P 493 no acumulado do ano. Ainda assim, a expectativa é que os relatórios de GOOGL, MSFT e AMZN no fim de julho tragam novo fôlego ao tema de infraestrutura de IA. 🪙 Impacto direto sobre o ouro (XAU/USD) Apesar do dólar fraco, o ouro não conseguiu romper novas máximas nos últimos dois meses, sendo pressionado por: Realização técnica após o rali de março e abril; Entrada de capital mais forte em ativos de risco (ações e cripto); Falhas de rompimento acima de US$ 3.400; Rompimento da média de 50 dias, com suporte sendo testado na zona de US$ 3.200. Contudo, a estrutura de alta permanece intacta, com base no canal de alta de médio prazo. 📌 Próximos catalisadores para julho 📉 ISM Manufacturing – terça-feira (2/jul) Deve sinalizar desaceleração adicional na indústria americana. 👷‍♂️ Payroll de junho – quinta-feira (4/jul) Projeção de 113 mil novos empregos. Um número fraco pode antecipar corte em julho. 🧾 Decisão sobre tarifas (9/jul) Fim da pausa tarifária decretada por Trump pode reacender risco de guerra comercial. 📊 Temporada de lucros Q2 (meados de julho) Consenso projeta crescimento modesto de 4% no lucro por ação. Expectativas estão baixas. 💬 Reunião do FOMC – 29 e 30 de julho Embora sem corte esperado, Powell pode preparar o mercado para ação em setembro. 🧠 Opinião do analista Igor Pereira O mercado vive um clássico movimento de "rally no muro de preocupações" — os riscos permanecem, mas são sistematicamente ignorados enquanto a liquidez global e a expectativa de cortes de juros sustentam os ativos de risco. O investidor precisa entender que o atual ambiente não é de euforia irracional, mas sim de rotina pragmática do mercado: enquanto o Fed hesita, o mercado antecipa. Isso pode continuar, mas a partir de agosto o cenário tende a se complicar, com: Blackout de recompra de ações; Risco político elevado (eleições de meio termo, reformas fiscais); Volatilidade sazonal mais elevada. Sugiro cautela tática e diversificação: Aumentar exposição a ouro em suporte; Rebalancear portfólio com proteção (opções, ouro, Treasuries curtos); Observar com atenção tarifas, dados de emprego e lucros corporativos.

Bitcoin price started trading in a range below the $108,800 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for a move above the $108,000 resistance. Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $108,800 zone. The price is trading below $107,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $107,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $105,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Gains Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $105,500 zone. BTC gained pace and was able to climb above the $106,500 and $107,200 levels to enter a positive zone. The bulls pushed the price above the $108,000 resistance and the price tested the $108,800 zone. A high was formed at $108,792 and the price recently corrected gains. There was a move below the $107,500 level. A low was formed at $106,800 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a recovery above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $106,800 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $107,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $107,400 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $107,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $108,000 level and the 50% Fib level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $106,800 low. A close above the $108,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $108,800 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $110,000 level. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $108,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $106,800 level. The first major support is near the $106,500 level. The next support is now near the $105,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $105,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,500, below which BTC might gain bearish momentum. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $106,800, followed by $106,500. Major Resistance Levels – $108,000 and $108,800.

On-chain data shows Dogecoin is the only cryptocurrency among the top 10 where investors are currently realizing more losses than profits. Dogecoin Investors Realized $124 Million In Loss Over The Last 24 Hours In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared how the major cryptocurrencies compare against each other in terms of the Realized Loss and Realized Profit metrics. These indicators measure, as their names already imply, the amount of loss/profit that the investors on a given network are realizing through their transactions right now. The metrics work by going through the transfer history of each coin being sold to see what price it was moved at prior to this. If this previous value is less than the price that the coin’s now being sold at, then the token’s sale is leading to profit realization. On the other hand, it being higher suggests loss realization. The Realized Profit sums up the difference between the two prices involved in all sales of the former type, while the Realized Loss does the same for the latter ones. Now, here is the table shared by the analytics firm that shows how the 24-hour values of the two metrics currently stack up for the top 10 coins by market cap: As is visible above, the scale of the Realized Loss and Realized Profit differs greatly between the different assets, but one pattern is consistent: the latter outweighs the former, implying a trend of net profit-taking from the investors. One asset, however, doesn’t fit the mold: Dogecoin. The 24-hour Realized Loss for the memecoin stands at around $132 million, while the Realized Profit is much lower with a value of just $5 million. As such, it would appear that while the participants in the rest of the sector have been harvesting gains, DOGE holders have been panic capitulating at a loss instead. Among these top coins, the investors of Bitcoin have realized the largest profit, with the indicator’s value sitting at a whopping $1.3 billion. The Realized Loss is also restricted to just $33 million for the number one cryptocurrency, indicating selling has been heavily lopsided toward profit-taking. Things are more balanced for Ethereum, the digital asset ranked number two. Its Realized Loss of $18.4 million is roughly half that of its Realized Profit of $35.2 million. The fact that profit realization is so dominant for the likes of Bitcoin, however, might actually be a bearish sign. Historically, such market conditions have made tops more likely. A dominance of loss-taking, on the other hand, can facilitate reversals to the upside. As such, while not a given, Dogecoin may not be in a bad position, at least in this regard. DOGE Price Dogecoin touched the $0.170 mark during the weekend, but the memecoin has seen a retrace under $0.165 to kick off the week.

US regulators and market watchers are eyeing a fresh valuation study that puts XRP on track for a dramatic price surge by 2030. According to Valhil Capital’s deep‑dive report, XRP could climb from its current price into a range between $4,813 and $9,000 in just five years. That forecast hinges on a model that treats XRP not only as a quick way to move money but also as a store of value. Model Weighs Store Of Value According to the Athey & Mitchnick Model used by Valhil Capital, XRP’s role goes way beyond sending payments. The study gives much more weight to people holding XRP like they would gold. In their view, as more folks start treating XRP as a place to park money, fewer coins stay in circulation. That tight supply pushes the price higher. The model blends economic ideas, real‑world trends, and crypto market moves to arrive at its numbers. Key Figures Drive Forecast Based on reports, the model assumes daily transactions on XRP Ledger will hit $700 billion by 2030. It uses a one‑second transaction speed and the current 56.5 billion XRP supply. With a 10% discount rate and a five‑year adoption window, the study pegs a mid‑case price of $4,813 if about 10% of global payments run on XRPL. In a more bullish view, the researchers push store‑of‑value demand to $1 quadrillion, which shoots the price beyond $9,000. Even a $100 trillion demand level would land XRP at $908 per token. Virtuous Cycle Could Fuel Growth Based on reports from Valhil Capital, the so‑called Virtuous Cycle Flywheel could spark a feedback loop. First, higher use of XRP for cross‑border payments and FX trades drives up demand. Then, price gains lure more holders to lock away their coins, shrinking the free float. That scarcity pushes prices even higher. As value climbs, new use cases could pop up, drawing in more users and adding another spin to the cycle. Regulation And Competition Loom Large XRP’s path to mass use isn’t smooth. Legal questions still swirl around its status in the US and elsewhere. That uncertainty may scare off big financial players. Plus, central bank digital currencies, stablecoins, and rival blockchains are all chasing the same slice of the cross‑border market. Valhil Capital calls its forecast “conservative” because it skips markets like derivatives and real estate. Yet it also admits it can’t guess future rules or fresh ways people might use XRP. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Ethereum is trading above $2,400 after enduring several days of volatility and uncertainty. The price has managed to stabilize despite sharp intraday swings, reflecting growing tension between bullish momentum and cautious sentiment. Analysts are now calling for a decisive move, with some expecting a breakout toward higher levels, while others warn of a possible correction if key demand zones fail to hold. On one hand, ETH has shown strength by holding above its short-term support range, suggesting that buyers are stepping in with confidence. Bullish momentum appears to be building, especially as macro sentiment around risk assets begins to recover. On the other hand, opposing views point to weakening volume and lingering macroeconomic risks, which could trigger a deeper retracement if Ethereum fails to sustain current levels. Adding weight to the bullish case is fresh data from CryptoQuant, which highlights a strong accumulation pattern among long-term ETH holders. According to the data, significant buying pressure emerged during the recent consolidation phase, with hodlers steadily increasing their positions. This divergence between price action and accumulation behavior suggests that foundational support for Ethereum remains intact, even as traders await the next major move. Ethereum Accumulation Builds And Market Awaits Breakout Ethereum is struggling to reclaim the $2,500 level, but its ability to hold steady amid ongoing market uncertainty is a sign of underlying strength. For weeks, ETH has traded within a well-defined range between $2,200 and $2,800, with neither bulls nor bears able to take decisive control. This prolonged consolidation has delayed the long-anticipated altseason, which many believe will only begin once Ethereum breaks above key resistance and pushes into higher territory. Despite the lack of clear direction, the macro setup is becoming increasingly interesting. Global markets remain volatile, with shifting interest rate expectations, geopolitical risk, and unpredictable liquidity conditions creating mixed signals across risk assets. Yet Ethereum continues to hold firm, supported not just by technical structure but also by significant long-term holder activity. According to insights from CryptoQuant, a strong accumulation pattern has been detected among Ethereum holders. During the June consolidation phase, long-term investors steadily increased their positions, even as price action remained choppy. This divergence between price and accumulation volume signals growing confidence under the surface. When price consolidates while demand builds, the result is often explosive. With ETH holding key support levels and long-term accumulation rising, the stage may be set for a major move. If Ethereum can push through $2,500 and reclaim higher ground, it could serve as the ignition point for a broader altcoin rally. Until then, the market remains in a state of quiet buildup. Something big is coming—and Ethereum is at the center of it. ETH Struggles With Resistance Amid Mixed Signals Ethereum is currently trading at $2,470 after failing to hold intraday gains above the $2,500 level. The 12-hour chart shows ETH consolidating within a broader range, with $2,200 acting as strong support and $2,800 as key resistance. Despite several bullish attempts, Ethereum has struggled to reclaim higher ground, and the rejection near the 100-period SMA (green line at $2,537) signals persistent selling pressure near resistance. The price is currently trading above the 200 SMA ($2,170) and just under the 50 SMA ($2,507), which now acts as a short-term resistance. This tight positioning of moving averages suggests ETH is at a decision point—either it breaks through $2,500 to target $2,600 and higher, or it risks rolling over if bulls fail to hold momentum. Volume remains relatively flat, indicating indecision. The overall structure still favors a neutral-to-bullish bias, especially if price continues to close above the 200 SMA. However, a breakdown below $2,400 would increase the risk of a retest of the $2,200 support zone. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

A seasoned crypto analyst has warned that the recent Bitcoin (BTC) price action may be setting the stage for major liquidity traps, echoing patterns seen in past cycles. As the leading cryptocurrency aims for new all-time highs, the pundit suggests that market makers could be deliberately engineering conditions for bear traps before triggering a powerful breakout. Bitcoin Path To ATH Riddled With Liquidity Traps Crypto market expert Luca has shared intriguing insights into Bitcoin’s latest price behavior, arguing that the market may be entering a classic liquidity trap phase allegedly orchestrated by market makers. The analyst stated in an X (formerly Twitter) post that Bitcoin’s price action since topping out in late May 2025 has followed a suspicious pattern. He noted that despite experiencing several price rallies, not a single local high has been swept in the past few weeks. Luca suggests that this rare price structure could be a deliberate setup, giving the illusion of stability and offering false conviction in bearish positions. The analyst warns that market makers have possibly influenced this market behavior by baiting shorts into entering or holding positions with the assumption that Bitcoin could continue to be capped below resistance. Ideally, this underpins the theory that bear traps are potentially being set as BTC gears up for its next bullish rally. Notably, multiple key resistance levels are now stacked tightly between $109,000 and $112,000, as highlighted on the analyst’s 4-hour Bitcoin chart. While BTC has been consolidating just below these levels, forming what appears to be a potential base, Luca argues that this price behavior is not a coincidence. Rather than market weakness, he believes the subdued price action reflects a calculated effort by market makers to encourage bearish complacency. The pundit interprets the deliberate avoidance of liquidity above these resistance lines as a signal that deeper bear traps are possibly being laid. Luca has revealed that this setup could be laying the groundwork for a sudden short squeeze, potentially igniting a sharp move toward a new all-time high for Bitcoin. Analyst Says BTC 2024 Breakout Back In Play Adding historical context to his analysis, Luca compares the current market structure to a prolonged consolidation phase observed throughout 2024. On the second 8-hour chart, a clear trendline of resistance can be seen capping Bitcoin’s upside for most of the previous year. The chart shows that price action consistently failed to break above the descending barrier, with multiple attempts being rejected between March and October. Each rejection was marked by unswept highs—similar to the current market setup and suggesting that shorts were systematically being protected. This compression finally resolved in November 2024, when Bitcoin erupted through the resistance and launched a parabolic move to new highs. That breakout was fueled by the exact mechanism Luca now believes is in motion. With historical patterns now resurfacing, the analyst maintains that Bitcoin’s ongoing suppression and untouched highs are part of a blueprint that indicates a possible bullish move toward uncharted price territory.

🔔 Foco no Fed: Jerome Powell discursará nesta terça-feira (1º de julho) às 10h30 (Brasília GMT -3) e pode direcionar mercados Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro – ExpertFX School O presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, participará de um painel de discussão de política monetária nesta terça-feira, 1º de julho, às 9h30 (horário de Nova York / 10h30 no Brasil). O evento ocorre em um momento de expectativa crescente por cortes de juros ainda em 2025, com o mercado já precificando quase 20% de chance de corte em julho e corte como praticamente certo para setembro, segundo dados da CME FedWatch Tool. 🧭 O que esperar do discurso de Powell Embora o evento não seja uma audiência formal no Congresso ou uma coletiva do FOMC, qualquer nuance no tom ou termos utilizados por Powell pode afetar diretamente ativos de risco, especialmente diante da proximidade do Payroll de junho (quinta-feira) e da recente queda dos rendimentos dos Treasuries. Ponto-chave: Powell poderá comentar sobre: Perspectiva de cortes diante de sinais de desaceleração no mercado de trabalho; Impacto das tarifas comerciais de Trump na inflação e cadeia global; Reação do Fed frente à fragilidade nos dados de consumo; Possibilidade de antecipação do ciclo de cortes para julho. 📊 Impacto nos mercados financeiros ▶️ Dólar (DXY) Se Powell soar mais dovish, o dólar poderá ceder frente a moedas G10 e emergentes, reforçando fluxo para ativos de risco. ▶️ Ouro (XAU/USD) Um tom brando por parte do Fed tende a ser altista para o ouro, sobretudo após o recente teste da média de 50 dias e o suporte em US$ 3.240. Traders institucionais estão montando posições defensivas via opções, conforme análise recente do Goldman Sachs. ▶️ Ações e índices (S&P500, Nasdaq) Expectativas de cortes acelerados tendem a favorecer ações de tecnologia, consumo e setores alavancados, mas qualquer ambiguidade pode gerar volatilidade intradiária. ▶️ Treasuries (10Y e 2Y) O mercado já antecipou parte da flexibilização monetária. Powell mais dovish pode levar os yields a caírem ainda mais, com foco na faixa dos 4,10% a 4,20% para o 10Y. 🧠 Opinião do analista Igor Pereira Com o Fed caminhando em direção a um ciclo de afrouxamento, o mercado buscará qualquer pista concreta sobre o “timing” do primeiro corte. Powell tem sido cauteloso, mas os dados do mercado de trabalho e a política fiscal de Trump estão criando pressão crescente para antecipar estímulos. A fala desta terça pode ser o último evento relevante antes do Payroll de junho (quinta-feira), portanto, traders devem ajustar suas posições e exposição à volatilidade a partir das 9h de terça (horário NY). Sugiro especial atenção a operações em XAU/USD, EUR/USD, S&P500 e pares ligados ao iene (USD/JPY), que tradicionalmente reagem com força às falas do presidente do Fed.

Log in to today’s North American session Recap for June 30, 2025 Month-end flows notably influenced the session, leading to another instance of US Dollar underperformance. Equity markets, while ending the month on a positive note, experienced significant volatility into the close, as major participants leveraged the typically higher liquidity around monthly settlement prices for portfolio rebalancing. Global indices are now closing above their early 2025 highs, completing what has been a volatile yet ultimately successful month of June. Commodities observed a mixed performance today. Oil and other energy products saw declines, while Gold staged a notable rally throughout the session, closing just above the key $3,300 mark. The broader macroeconomic landscape remained relatively calm. However, renewed tensions have emerged in Iran, and we will provide further analysis should the situation escalate. Read More: Seasonal Flows for the month of July close For all Market moving events, check the MarketPulse Economic Calendar For all Market moving events, check the MarketPulse Economic Calendar The overnight/tomorrow session will see more economic data releases, mostly with the US PMIs giving more clarity on the current economic picture for the US. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is releasing tomorrow at 10:00 A.M. ET, expected at 48.8. The less market moving Chicago PMI came at a fairly big downward surprise with 40.3 vs 43 expected, markets may be preparing for some surprise in tomorrow's release. Elsewhere, markets are awaiting for the Caixin PMI release from China tonight 21:45 (exp 49), which could be market moving particularly for APAC Currencies and Equity markets around the globe that have been performing quite dominantly in the past month. For Euro traders, get ready for the Eurozone Inflation data release at 5:00 in the overnight session – We will have more clarity if the ECB has more work to do on their Monetary Policy or if the pause gets confirmed further. Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin rompe os US$ 100 mil e aciona nova fase de euforia: número de carteiras milionárias dispara Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro – ExpertFX School O preço do Bitcoin (BTC) ultrapassou nesta segunda-feira a marca dos US$ 107.623,70, consolidando um dos rompimentos mais fortes dos últimos dois anos. O movimento confirma uma nova fase do ciclo de alta, sustentado por fundamentos técnicos sólidos e dados on-chain que revelam um crescimento explosivo no número de carteiras com saldo acima de US$ 1 milhão, conforme apontam Glassnode e Coinbase Institutional. 💼 Expansão institucional em andamento Segundo os dados das últimas semanas: O número de carteiras com mais de US$ 1 milhão cresceu mais de 36% no acumulado do último mês; Endereços com mais de 100 BTC também aumentaram, apontando para acúmulo por fundos, escritórios de investimento e tesourarias corporativas; A queda na oferta de BTC em corretoras atingiu mínima histórica, reforçando a tese de retenção e iliquidez de oferta. 🧠 Leitura institucional: o que está por trás da alta O movimento atual combina três fatores decisivos: 1. Rompimento técnico de múltiplas resistências Superação dos US$ 100.000 validou uma estrutura de alta de longo prazo; Volume ascendente e candle semanal de força confirmam quebra de topo histórico com forte convicção; Alvo técnico imediato projetado entre US$ 117.000 e US$ 132.000. 2. Demanda global ancorada na desconfiança sobre moedas fiduciárias Países emergentes com inflação elevada continuam pressionando demanda local por BTC como hedge (dados recentes mostram alta de 134,5% do BTC em bolívares venezuelanos – VES, e 44,6% em pesos argentinos – ARS); O BTC se torna uma alternativa real à poupança em moedas frágeis, sobretudo diante de crises fiscais e monetárias. 3. Fluxo institucional acelerado após estabilização regulatória O projeto de lei S899 foi arquivado nos EUA, o que aliviou as pressões sobre o mercado; ETFs de Bitcoin spot estão absorvendo liquidez recorde; Grandes gestoras, incluindo BlackRock, Fidelity, e VanEck, estão ampliando exposição no balanço patrimonial. 📉 Oportunidade para o trader: onde estão os próximos níveis Com base nos modelos de análise técnica e comportamento histórico pós-topo, os níveis-chave agora são: Nível técnico Interpretação US$ 100.000 Suporte psicológico validado US$ 107.000 Preço atual, início de expansão vertical US$ 117.000 – 118.500 Primeiro alvo de extensão US$ 132.000 – 135.000 Alvo de euforia total caso o fluxo continue 📊 Impacto no mercado geral Mercado de altcoins começa a reagir, mas ainda em fase atrasada; Ouro (XAU/USD) perdeu tração temporária com migração de liquidez para o BTC; Treasuries e dólar (DXY) seguem estáveis, indicando que a alta é endógena ao criptoativo, sem correlação momentânea com aversão ao risco. 🧠 Opinião do analista Igor Pereira A quebra da barreira dos US$ 100.000 marca a transição do Bitcoin para uma nova era: ele deixa de ser apenas um "hedge alternativo" e assume um papel central como ativo de reserva global digital. A leitura institucional é clara: acumulação continua em ritmo acelerado, e a demanda de longo prazo por escassez digital está apenas começando. O número de carteiras com mais de US$ 1 milhão não apenas reflete essa confiança — ele antecipa nova fase de distribuição de riqueza no ecossistema cripto, onde o capital institucional dita o ritmo.

Bitcoin continues to maintain its upward trajectory following a minor correction, now trading at $107,251, reflecting a 2.3% increase over the past week. Although still trailing its May all-time high of $111,000 by around 4%, the asset’s price action signals a notable return of momentum. The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, has seen renewed trading activity in recent weeks as investor sentiment oscillates between bullish optimism and profit-taking behavior. According to new on-chain data analyzed by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical phase that demands greater attention from market participants. Open Interest Spikes Signal Potential Profit-Taking Zones In his analysis titled “Binance Open Interest Spikes and Long-Term Holder De-risking: Bitcoin is Approaching a Turning Point”, Taha highlights two developing trends: repeated spikes in open interest on Binance and a significant drawdown in long-term holders’ exposure. Both indicators, he suggests, reflect changing market dynamics that could influence Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. One of the key observations from Taha’s analysis is the behavior of Binance’s 24-hour open interest (OI), which has exceeded 6% for the third time in two months. Historical patterns indicate that previous occurrences on May 26 and June 10 were followed by short-term price corrections or periods of consolidation. These spikes often indicate an increase in leveraged trading positions, which tend to precede short-term profit-taking as traders seek to lock in gains. This trend may suggest that Bitcoin is entering another phase of heightened volatility where rapid shifts in market sentiment could influence price direction. The presence of leveraged positions, particularly at elevated price levels, increases the likelihood of sudden liquidations or pullbacks. While this does not confirm an imminent reversal, it marks a zone where caution may be warranted, especially for short-term traders. Such spikes in open interest often act as precursors to more conservative positioning or brief market cooling periods. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Reduce Risk Exposure In addition to rising speculative activity, a separate trend tracked by Taha focuses on the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). Data shows that the LTH Net Position Realized Cap, a measure of the realized value of Bitcoin held by these investors, has declined sharply, falling from over $57 billion to just $3.5 billion. This reduction points to active profit-taking among more strategic investors, possibly in response to macroeconomic developments or uncertainty surrounding the current market cycle. While this shift in behavior does not automatically imply a bearish outlook, it suggests that experienced investors are trimming exposure after a notable price rally. Historically, long-term holders have exhibited a higher degree of market foresight, making this activity worth noting. Combined with elevated open interest and a potential cooling-off period, these developments highlight the possibility of increased short-term volatility without fundamentally altering the long-term bullish structure of Bitcoin’s market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Mt Carbine tungsten project in Queensland, Australia. Image: EQ Resources. EQ Resources Limited (ASX: EQR) announced Friday that it has received a Letter of Interest to support the Mt Carbine tungsten expansion project from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM). The historic Mt Carbine tungsten mine is located in Far North Queensland — it was discovered at the end of the 19th century and was a major tungsten producer in the 1970s and 80s. The deposit is still relatively unexplored, and according to EQ Resources’ website, there is considerable exploration potential for new tungsten mineralisation in the mining leases and surrounding exploration tenements. Under EXIM’s new Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative (SCRI), the Letter of Interest states that EXIM is considering a 10-year debt facility of up to $34 million for the capital expansion and further development of the mine. EQ Resources, formerly Speciality Metals International, announced plans to double production capacity at its Mt Carbine operation as soon as funding has been secured. The company also holds 100% ownership of Saloro’s Barruecopardo tungsten mine in Spain. Long-lead items and key equipment for the planned processing plant expansion have been delivered to site, the company said, adding that the capacity expansion provides economies-of-scale and allows the operation to expand the throughput of low-grade ore from the historic low-grade stockpile (>10Mt) as supplement feed to the tungsten ore mined from the open pit and potential future underground. The 2022 Mt Carbine underground scoping study details a development plan for the long-term exploitation of the Mt Carbine tungsten deposit, noting that only 19% of the In-Situ Mt Carbine Mineral Resources are categorised as Ore Reserves and only those were modelled in the current open cut mining schedule. The SCRI seeks to finance overseas mines to develop sources of critical minerals, reducing the United States reliance on China for critical minerals, reducing risk of supply chain disruption from China’s export bans, which sent tungsten prices on the European spot market to the highest level in 12 years last month. Several countries classify tungsten as a critical mineral including the United States, the European Union and Australia. Tungsten is the material of choice for a key defense application – what the military calls penetrators – high-density, armour-piercing projectiles. Its also required in US Department of Defence (DoD) contracts. “We are pleased to work with US EXIM and our US customer base to strengthen resilience in a critical defence- and energy-related supply chain,” EQR executive chairman Oliver Kleinhempel said in a news release. “With two operating mines in Australia and Spain, EQR has positioned itself as a reliable and ambitious partner,” Kleinhempel said. “Recent geopolitical events and aggressive trade policies have contributed to a severe shortage of supply in the tungsten market. EQ Resources is positioned well with its Mt Carbine expansion plans to meet the demand of US customers.”

Bitcoin briefly pushed into the $108,800 level a few hours ago but was once again unable to reclaim higher prices, reinforcing the key resistance just below its all-time high. This rejection has left the market in a state of caution, with investors expecting increased volatility in the coming sessions. As BTC continues to hover below the $109,300 mark, traders are watching closely for signs of either a confirmed breakout or a potential pullback. Adding a new layer to the current setup, top analyst Ted Pillows shared a notable development in Bitcoin dominance. According to Pillows, the Bitcoin Dominance chart is now showing a daily bearish divergence—a classic signal that often precedes a shift in momentum from Bitcoin to altcoins. This divergence occurs when BTC dominance trends higher while momentum indicators begin to weaken, suggesting that Bitcoin’s relative strength may be peaking. For altcoin investors, this could be an early signal of a shift. Historically, bearish divergences in dominance have lead to strong altcoin rallies, as capital begins flowing from BTC into higher-beta assets. While Bitcoin consolidates near resistance, attention may soon shift toward altcoins, setting the stage for a possible altseason. Bitcoin Consolidates As Charts Signal Altcoin Rotation Following the resolution of global tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, Bitcoin surged above the $105,000 level, signaling renewed confidence across global risk markets. The move marked a key recovery from previous uncertainty, with BTC taking back critical support and shifting focus back toward the $110,000 resistance zone. However, despite the initial breakout, Bitcoin has struggled to push into uncharted territory. Price action remains choppy and directionless, with the market hesitating ahead of what many believe could be a decisive move. Analysts continue to call for a breakout, citing strong accumulation trends, improving macroeconomic conditions, and a bullish long-term structure. Yet the inability to break above the $109,300–$110,000 range raises concerns about weakening momentum. The longer Bitcoin remains capped below resistance, the more likely it is that capital may begin to rotate into other parts of the market. Top analyst Ted Pillows recently shared key insights supporting that thesis. According to Pillows, Bitcoin dominance is showing a daily bearish divergence—a classic sign of impending trend reversal. As BTC dominance climbs but momentum weakens, it suggests that Bitcoin’s recent strength may be fading, and a shift toward altcoins could be underway. Historically, bearish divergences in BTC dominance have often preceded sharp corrections in Bitcoin and explosive rallies across the altcoin market. As Bitcoin consolidates and its dominance loses strength, conditions may be forming for the next big altseason. While nothing is guaranteed, the combination of geopolitical relief, market indecision, and technical signals suggests that a sharp rotation could be close. Traders are now watching both BTC price and dominance levels closely, knowing that once momentum shifts, the move could be swift and powerful. ETH/BTC Chart Shows Signs Of Reversal The ETH/BTC weekly chart reveals a prolonged downtrend that has persisted since late 2022, with Ethereum consistently underperforming against Bitcoin. Since peaking above 0.085 BTC in late 2022, the pair has steadily declined, now trading around 0.0228 BTC—a level not seen since 2020. This confirms that Bitcoin has been the clear market leader for nearly two years, adding most of the capital inflow during bullish phases while altcoins, including Ethereum, lagged behind. However, current price action shows early signs that this trend may be nearing its end. ETH/BTC appears to have found a local bottom, just above the 0.02 BTC zone, after a steep drop. Although the pair remains well below the 50 (weekly), 100, and 200 moving averages, the selling momentum has clearly slowed, and volume has begun to stabilize. This phase suggests that a swing could be forming. If Ethereum can reclaim higher support levels and Bitcoin dominance continues to show bearish divergence—as noted in recent market analyses—the ETH/BTC ratio could start trending higher once again. A rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and other altcoins may soon follow, potentially marking the beginning of a new phase in the crypto cycle where altcoins start to outperform. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Talks between the US and Canada appear to have resumed in the latest episode of “TACO” Trump trade drama. During a Friday news conference, Trump announced he was stepping away from negotiations with Canada. In response, the Land of Maple Syrup dropped its plans to implement a Digital Services Tax—one that would have directly impacted many American service-exporting firms. The proposed tax now appears to have been more of a negotiation tactic from Canada aimed at its increasingly unpredictable neighbor. Markets initially reacted sharply to Trump’s announcement on Truth Social, sparking a 900-pip rally. However, the move quickly faded as participants recognized a familiar pattern—these announcements often act as leverage for the US to push for more favorable trade terms. Read More: Seasonal flows for the month of July close USDCAD 1H Chart, June 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD 1H Chart, June 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView The latest move in the currency pair has formed an Hourly Descending Channel (HDC) which may be used as a guide for momentum identification. Any break below current levels will accelerate bearish strength to retest last week lows, with a further falloff finding potential support at 1.35 (Psycholigical Level + Upper bound of May Daily descending channel) Holding above last week lows points at the upper bound of the HDC around 1.3680 in the Pivot Zone seen in the 4H Chart. Watch for lower volumes in this week (except for Thursday with the NFP release) and for more headlines regarding US-Canada trade talks. Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

American Battery Technology Company (NASDAQ: ABAT) soared on Monday after its Tonopah Flats lithium project (TFLP) in Nevada was given “transparency priority” status by the US Federal Permitting Council. With the designation, the Tonopah Flats lithium project is now featured on the FAST-41 permitting dashboard, which ABAT says underscores the project’s role in supporting US-based critical mineral production and energy independence. “We are excited by this selection of our Tonopah Flats lithium project as a FAST-41 critical mineral transparency project,” stated ABAT chief executive officer Ryan Melsert in a press release. The Permitting Council, established in 2015 by Title 41 of the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act (FAST-41), oversees and streamlines federal environmental reviews for critical infrastructure projects. While FAST-41 covered projects receive coordinated project plans and expert support, transparency projects only gain public visibility on the dashboard without additional FAST-41 benefits. “As we are currently working through permitting efforts with multiple federal agencies for the construction of this domestic critical mineral project, the support to coordinate and fast-track these efforts is greatly appreciated,” Melsert added. Shares of American Battery Technology surged 13.4% to $1.66 on the NASDAQ by midday, giving the Reno-based company a market capitalization of $152 million. “This is an exciting time as we work with our colleagues across the federal government to unleash America’s vast energy and mineral resources,” Emily Domenech, Permitting Council executive director, stated. “The Permitting Council stands ready to bring the transparency of our program to these projects, speeding the production of the critical minerals needed for our national and economic security.” Tonopah Flats represents one of three new projects that the Trump administration has added to the FAST-41 permitting dashboard. Large claystone deposit ABAT says this distinction marks a significant milestone in the development of what it considers to be one of the largest identified claystone resource deposits in the country. The project is situated within Nevada’s Big Smoky Valley, an area known for its unique lithium-rich sedimentary claystone. According to an initial SEC S-K 1300 assessment in 2024, the project has in excess of 6 billion tonnes in resources grading 574 ppm lithium. Total amount of claystone processed over life of mine is estimated at 597 million tonnes, averaging 4,111 ppm LHM (lithium hydroxide monohydrate). Based on a 10% discount rate, has a net present value of $4.67 billion. To tap into the Tonopah Flats claystone resource, ABAT has developed an in-house extraction and purification technology that it believes represents a lower-cost, lower-impact solution in contrast to conventional lithium extraction methods. In January 2021, ABAT received a grant from the US Department of Energy to fund the demonstration and scaling of its extraction technologies into a multi-tonne-per-day field demonstration system. It later received an additional grant of $57 million to build, commission and operate a $115 million commercial-scale facility to produce lithium hydroxide monohydrate. Funding access Now with the designation as a transparency priority project, the company said this would be especially beneficial as it is currently engaged with multiple federal agencies for project permitting, noting that Tonopah Flats is situated on land managed by the US Department of Interior. In late April, ABAT received a letter from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) expressing interest in providing a $900 million loan to support the subsequent expansion of its commercial-scale lithium mine and refinery. In late 2024, the battery metals developer also received $144 million from the Department of Energy to build a new commercial-scale lithium-ion battery recycling facility.

USD/CHF is down ~0.63% in today’s session, currently trading around the ~0.79378 level. Crucially remaining under the key level of 0.8000, the Swiss franc remains on pace for its best three-monthly performance versus the dollar since 2008 amid the latest wave of dollar weakness. USD/CHF: Key takeaways from today’s session With the DXY falling to three-year lows today shortly after the New York open, dollar-franc has predictably followed suit, falling to levels last seen in 2011~ Recent commentary from the Swiss National Bank, suggesting that both negative rates and currency interventions remain a possibility, might limit USD/CHF downside in the short term close USD/CHF, OANDA, TradingView, 30/06/2025 USD/CHF, OANDA, TradingView, 30/06/2025 Falling over 2.34% in last week’s trading, USD/CHF remains bearish. With price at 14-year lows, little structure exists below current price action, which could otherwise offer support Both the daily RSI and Stochastics currently rate USD/CHF price action as ‘oversold’, suggesting that a retracement is likely before a further move to the downside is possible If price is able to break down below current levels, bears will likely target ~0.78496 in the medium term Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards has provided an update on the current Bitcoin price action, predicting that the flagship crypto could reach as high $145,000 later this year. The analyst alluded to a doji pattern, which supports this bullish prediction. Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Rally To $145,000 In an X post, Stockmoney Lizards stated that his mid-term target for the Bitcoin price is between $135,000 and $145,000. He expects BTC to reach these targets between September and October later this year. The analyst also touched on the current price action and why he believes the flagship crypto will reach such lofty heights. Stockmoney noted that the Bitcoin price is trading at the upper level of the corrective channel, forming some dojis at this level. He admitted that he doesn’t know how many bounces market participants will see from BTC and what levels the crypto will test. He raised the possibility that the local bottom may be in and also that BTC could retest the $90,000 to $94,000 range. The analyst stated that if he had to bet, he would probably predict that the Bitcoin price taps the high of the $90,000 range again. BTC had dropped to as low as $98,000 last week amid the escalated tensions between Israel and Iran. Bitcoin has since recovered following the ceasefire between both countries. Stockmoney affirmed that the latest Bitcoin price action is a bullish formation as the flagship crypto has had an impulsive move up. He added that the current price action is not the usual money rotation with old traders selling and new traders loading up at range lows. The analyst also indicated that BTC’s rally isn’t driven by the derivatives market either. BTC To At Least Reach $135,000 Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has echoed Stockmoney’s prediction that the Bitcoin price could at least reach $135,000. In an X post, the analyst declared that BTC’s path to this price target remains intact. He stated that Bitcoin is now challenging the first Fibonacci extension at $107,000 after breaking out and retesting key levels. Once the Bitcoin price clears this Fibonacci extension, Titan of Crypto believes that the next stop is $135,000. He revealed that the market structure supports this move, but it remains to be seen if momentum will follow. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could reach this Fibonacci extension at $135,000 by September, aligning with Stockmoney’s prediction. The chart also suggested that BTC could still rally to as high as $150,000 at some point. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $108,200, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Arizona Metals (TSX: AMC; OTCQX: AZMCF) shares plunged to their lowest level in more than four years after a long-awaited initial resource estimate for the company’s Kay polymetallic project revealed a smaller-than-expected scale. The resource outlines 9.28 million indicated tonnes grading 1.39 grams per tonne gold, 27.6 grams silver, 0.97% copper, 0.33% lead and 2.39% zinc, Arizona Metals said in a statement Monday. Contained metal totals 415,000 oz. gold, 8.25 million oz. silver, 197.9 million lb. copper, 67.3 million lb. lead and 490.1 million lb. of zinc. Kay is located in central Arizona. “Relative to our expectations, grades were slightly better than anticipated, though tonnage disappointed, and more than offset,” BMO Capital Markets mining analyst Rene Cartier said in a note. Investor expectations relative to the project’s size were “likely associated with the higher end, or potentially even more, particularly given the prior historical resource as a base,” he added. Cartier was expecting Kay’s tonnage to range from 14 million to 18 million tonnes. Following the resource’s release, he cut his target price on Arizona Metals to C$2 a share from C$2.75 previously. He rates the stock “outperform.” Located about 70 km north of Phoenix, on a site that has been mined on and off since being discovered in the 19th century, Kay lies amid scores of current and past-producing mines in the leading U.S. copper-producing state. Operators including Black Canyon Copper, Shattuck-Denn Mining and Republic Metals produced about 2,730 tonnes between 1949 and 1956, when a cave-in closed the mine. No one has mined Kay since. Arizona Metals dropped 29% to C$1 in early afternoon trading Monday in Toronto, the stock’s lowest level since December 2020. That gave the company a market capitalization of about C$137 million ($100m). Second-half PEA Toronto-based Arizona Metals is conducting additional metallurgical test work at Kay with a view to releasing a preliminary economic assessment in the second half of the year. The deposit remains open for expansion beyond this initial estimate both along strike and at depth, the company said. Kay’s current timeline “suggests first production in the 2030s,” Cartier said in a note published May 30. In the inferred category, the company’s new estimate calculates 860,000 tonnes grading 1.06 grams per tonne gold, 15.4 grams silver, 0.87% copper, 0.2% lead and 1.68% zinc at a base-case cut-off grade of 1% copper equivalents. This would amount to 29,000 oz. gold of contained metal, 423,000 oz. silver, 16.4 million lb. copper 3.8 million lb. lead and 31.8 million lb. zinc. ‘Expansion potential’ The resource has “clear potential” to expand between existing drill holes within the deposit and to upgrade the inferred resource, Arizona Metals said. The estimate “marks a major milestone for Arizona Metals and validates not only the scale, but more importantly, the quality of the Kay project,” CEO Duncan Middlemiss said in the statement. “With over 650 million pounds of copper equivalent in the indicated category alone — and with the deposit remaining open in multiple directions — we see significant opportunity for expansion through continued drilling. We believe this resource represents just the beginning.” The resource is based on 14,006 metres of drilling from 234 diamond drill holes completed between 2020 and May 2025. Arizona Metals is aiming to complete about 10,000 metres of exploration drilling in the second half of 2025 at several new targets with holes as deep as 900 metres. The planned work is funded through the end of the year.

Markets are already positioning for a new month after a notably volatile June – Discover the Monthly Seasonal trends for July. As a reminder, Seasonals look at the average monthly performance for different trading assets depending on which time of the year they do best or worse. While investors had begun to turn the page on US tariffs—with the past month marked by "TACO Trump" headlines and a revival of trade talks with China—the Israel-Iran conflict brought fresh volatility. Oil prices spiked, risk-off flows intensified, and ironically, these developments helped propel stock indices to new all-time highs once the conflict de-escalated. More recently, Trump reignited tariff discussions—this time targeting Canada and Europe—as negotiations hit friction over more aggressive US demands. The US-Canada trade talks were briefly called off after Canada prepared to implement a Digital Services Tax, which was ultimately rescinded. Talks have since resumed, but trade policy is once again becoming a market-moving theme – Get ready for the End-Session Month-End rebalancing flows! Read More: What levels to watch for the US dollar as markets head into July July Seasonal Flows Equities & US Bonds So much for the adage Sell in May and Go Away: US Indices have performed decently well in July throughout the past 10 years, with the Dow up 3%, S&P 500 averaging 3.44%, Nasdaq with +4.64% on average. Other Indices around the world are also up on average in July, however less than US Indices. The Italian FTSE MIB leads with 2.80%, followed by the French CAC 40 with 2.30%, and the Canadian TSX with +2.12%. A sidenote for US Treasuries which tend to flatten (buy more long-end than short-end), with the 30-Year having its best month in the year (+1.30% on average in the past 10 Years) Major Forex Currencies July tends to see a fairly muted performance in Forex – Volatility tends to abate with less Central Bank meetings during the month and some traders going on vacation (at least those who had a successful first half). The Japanese Yen leads in Seasonality, followed by the Euro, GBP and CHF. The US Dollar, Aussie and Kiwi tend to be laggers in this month and the Loonie is seen mostly unchanged. Commodities and Cryptocurrencies Metals tend to be good performers in July with both Gold and Silver commonly up. The latter usually sees its best performing month, with +4.68% in the past 10 years. Oil on the other hand tends to correct, down -2.30% since 2015 in July, Travelling companies tend to secure their contracts for the active season during spring which leads to some calm in the Summer – There is still potential for out-of-the-usual flows in the upcoming month in the scenario of renewed conflicts in the Middle East. Finally, July tends to be giving strong flows to Cryptocurrencies, with both Bitcoin and ETH performing above 10% on average in the past 10 years – one thing to consider however is that growth for Crypto assets has been exponential, leading to statistical incoherences. It will be challenging to predict the reliability of past performances as these digital assets are starting to be traded by more participants. Safe and Successful Trades for the month ahead! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

NexMetals Mining (TSXV: NEXM), fresh off its name change from Premium Resources, reported drill results as high as 13.5 metres grading 1.13% copper and 1.25% nickel at its Selebi North deposit in eastern Botswana. Shares surged. That result, from 772.6 metres depth, included 4.95 metres at 1.76% copper and 1.85% nickel in hole SNUG-25-184 in the South Limb of mineralization, NexMetals reported Monday. Another highlight, hole SNUG-25-185, cut 5.95 metres grading 2.87% copper and 0.62% nickel in the N2 limb. SNUG-25-184 and SNUG-25-185 are the first two resource expansion holes to be drilled this year at the project, which is located about 410 km north of the nation’s capital, Gaborone. “The results from drill holes 184 and 185 continue to demonstrate the impressive step-out success and the broader scale of mineralization beyond the boundaries of the current resource,” NexMetals CEO Morgan Lekstrom said in a release. “Drilling has further extended the deposit intercepting mineralization roughly 315 metres down-plunge, well past its modeled limits.” The drill results come almost one month after NexMetals changed its name from Premium Resources to reflect its focus on critical minerals at the past-producing Selebi project in Botswana. The company received a boost in February after putting together a C$36 million financing led by mining entrepreneur Frank Giustra and his Fiore Group. Cymbria, an affiliate of wealth management firm EdgePoint Investment Group, also agreed to settle Premium’s C$20.8 million term loan debt. NexMetals shares gained 12.2% to C$11.45 apiece on Monday morning in Toronto, for a market capitalization of C$245.59 million. The stock has traded in a 12-month range of C$4.90 to C$20.60. Prospective limbs Hole SNUG-25-184 also pierced the N2 limb and returned a highlight result of 6.25 metres at 0.62% copper and 0.75% nickel from 882.75 metres depth. The mineralized zones were historically mined and later named N2 limb, N3 limb and South limb to delineate their location on the folded mineralized horizon, NexMetals said. Ongoing drilling is aimed at stepping out and testing the strike extent of mineralization. Initial resource Almost one year ago, NexMetals released an initial resource for Selebi, outlining 18.9 million inferred tonnes at 0.88% nickel and 1.69% copper for 165,000 tonnes of nickel and 319,000 tonnes of copper in the Main deposit. The North deposit, about 6 km away from the main one, hosts 3 million indicated tonnes grading 0.98% nickel and 0.9% copper for 29,500 tonnes contained nickel and 27,100 tonnes copper. It also holds 5.8 million inferred tonnes at 1.07% nickel and 0.9% copper for 62,400 tonnes of nickel and 52,500 tonnes of copper. The Selebi North underground mine produced 13.9 million tonnes grading 0.74% nickel and 0.66% copper from 1990 to 2016. Selebi Main was in operation from 1980 until 2016, when it was suspended due to a failure in the processing facility.

Kazakhstan is preparing to launch a state-run crypto reserve as the National Bank of Kazakhstan confirmed plans to create a national crypto reserve. The fund will likely be made of seized digital assets and government-linked mining operations. The announcement came from the government news agency Kazinform on 25 June 2025. National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov acknowledged the internet volatility and risks associated with crypto. However, he argued that placing the crypto reserve under the control of a centralized institution would ensure proper oversight and mitigate potential dangers. Importantly, Kazakhstan’s crypto reserve is expected to be managed by a subsidiary of the National Bank specializing in alternative investments. Furthermore, according to official reports, the crypto reserve will likely be funded through two main channels. Seized digital assets is the first source as authorities plan to use expropriated crypto. The other is through government-linked mining operations. Kazakhstan is known to have a growing crypto mining sector. Explore: Top 20 Crypto to Buy in July 2025 President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Pushes For Urgent Expansion Of Crypto Infrastructure Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for an urgent expansion of the country’s crypto infrastructure during a government meeting. “The turn towards the widespread use of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets has emerged in the financial sector,” President Tokayev said on 28 January 2025. “The development of artificial intelligence is becoming a fundamental factor, and competition between leading technological powers is intensifying in this area,” he added. “In such conditions, we need to have a clear strategy of action aimed at overcoming the serious challenges of the new era.” DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Key Takeaways Kazakhstan is establishing a state-run crypto reserve, likely funded by seized assets and government mining. Kazakhstan is not alone in exploring the potential of national crypto reserves. Around the world, governments are considering crypto reserves, often focusing on Bitcoin as the primary asset. The post Kazakhstan Moves To Create A National Crypto Reserve With Seized Digital Assets appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Kinterra Capital has made an improved offer to buy Australia’s New World Resources (ASX: NWC) as it looks to beat London-listed Central Asia Metals (LSE: CAML) in the takeover battle. On Monday, Kinterra lifted its offer from A$0.057 to A$0.062 a share, the same price CAML offered in its off-market bid last week. CAML’s previous best offer was A$0.055 before Kinterra came into the fold. At market close in Australia, New World’s shares traded at A$0.065 apiece for a market capitalization of A$215.7 million ($141.8 million). ‘Superior offer’ While its offer, on a per-share basis, is the same as CAML, Kinterra argues that its revised bid is “superior” in many aspects, including fewer conditions and a quicker timeline. In its statement, the Canadian private equity firm noted that its proposal is subject only to no “prescribed occurrences” occurring before the offer period ends. In contrast, CAML’s offer is subject to many conditions, including regulatory (i.e. CFIUS and North Macedonia), court and shareholder approvals. In addition, Kinterra said its offer is scheduled to open by no later than July 10, while CAML’s won’t be voted on until mid-September, which even if successful, may not be implemented until October. Kinterra’s offer avoids the execution risk and timing implications arising from this conditionality under the CAML proposal, the firm stated. Shareholder power Moreover, Kinterra said it will not vote in favour of CAML’s proposal, noting that as New World’s largest shareholder with a 19.3% stake, it has “the ability to materially influence the outcome of any shareholder vote on any competing offer.” With respect to CAML’s proposed A$10 million funding to New World for obligations related to the Antler copper project in Arizona, Kinterra said it is willing to engage in talks on interim funding, with the expectation that New World will terminate its agreement with CAML due to Kinterra’s competing offer. Located 15 km east of Yucca in northwestern Arizona, New World’s Antler project is host to a high-grade, polymetallic deposit with a resource of 11.4 million tonnes grading 4.1% copper equivalent per tonne. A 2024 prefeasibility study outlined a 12-year mine capable of producing 341,100 tonnes of copper equivalent.

XRP showed a powerful technical reaction after dipping precisely to the $2.07 Fib confluence zone, where multiple key levels aligned — including the golden .618 Fib retracement and wave-based extensions. The sharp bounce from this area signals a potential end to the recent correction and opens the door for further upside. The Perfect Bounce: XRP Finds Bottom At $2.07 Confluence CasiTrades, in a latest post on X, stated that on Friday, XRP dipped precisely to the $2.07 confluence zone, aligning with the golden .618 retracement, the 1:1 extension for wave C, and the .618 extension for subwave 5. She noted that a sharp reaction from that level would confirm the correction bottom, and the market did exactly that, snapping upward from the $2.07 mark. Since then, momentum has steadily increased, with bullish pressure building over time. Price action is now pressing into a critical resistance zone at $2.25, a level that represents the macro .382 Fibonacci retracement and has served as a significant technical barrier for months. Breaking and holding above this level could signal a shift from recovery to full-blown bullish continuation. Adding to the momentum, Ripple dropped its appeal, and the US SEC’s withdrawal could be the next trigger to price spikes. According to CasiTrades, the legal finish line is finally in sight, just as the price completes its correction structure, a timing she believes is no coincidence. This, she emphasized, is why technical analysis matters: it allows traders to identify key setups before the news breaks, positioning ahead of market-moving headlines. Key Short-Term Scenarios To Watch The analyst further explained that from this point, she is closely watching two key short-term scenarios unfold. In the first scenario, XRP makes a move up to around $2.30, followed by a pullback to retest $2.25 — this time as support, which CasiTrades considers an ideal and healthy move. The second scenario involves a stronger push straight through to the $2.45 zone, heading toward the larger resistance near $2.69. In this case, a minor pullback would likely occur just before the price interacts with the $2.69 resistance area. After that, the analyst anticipates a backtest of the $2.25 level. Either way, she emphasized that $2.25 remains the critical level to watch. Successfully flipping it sets the stage for a much larger breakout move. CasiTrades added that Friday’s bounce wasn’t just a random spike; it was a precise reaction to a completed structure. With wave 2 down, wave 3 is officially underway, and once these nearby resistance levels are cleared, it could all lead to a surge.

The euro is up for an eighth consecutive day and has gained 2.4% during that time. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1738, up 0.36% on the day. German inflation flatlines in June German data on Monday pointed to a weakening German economy. The CPI report indicated that the deflationary process slowly continues. The inflation rate for June came in at 0% m/m, down from 0.1% in May and below the consensus of 0.2%. Annually, inflation dropped to 2.0% from 2.1% and below the consensus of 2.1%. The eurozone releases its CPI report on Tuesday. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.