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Bitcoin (BTC) ‘Uptober’ Rally On Pause Until This Level Is Reclaimed
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
After a remarkable start to ‘Uptober,’ Bitcoin (BTC) has recently seen significant volatility, retesting multiple crucial levels. As the price bounces from the $110,000 mark, some analysts have suggested that BTC’s rally won’t restart until a key area is reclaimed. Bitcoin Needs Key Reclaim For New Highs Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated between its range’s lower and upper boundaries, hitting both a new all-time high (ATH) of $126,000 and a three-month low of $102,000. Notably, the crypto market saw one of the largest liquidation events in history on Friday, which briefly sent BTC’s price below $107,500. The flagship crypto quickly bounced from the lows and reclaimed the $110,000 barrier as support over the weekend, attempting to reclaim the $116,000 level twice since Sunday. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that holding the crucial $110,000-$111,000 zone could set the stage for a bounce back to the high of its three-day range, but warned that losing this area could send the price to the $107,000 support before a reversal. Similarly, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that despite the pullback, BTC’s range between $107,500-$124,000 has held and the key horizon levels have been respected, with “many large pivots and moves happening from these areas.” The trader suggested that Bitcoin will likely continue to “chop” within the range’s mid-zone, where most price action has occurred since Q3, until it reclaims and retests $117,000 as support. To achieve this reclaim, analyst Rekt Capital pointed out BTC must show continued stability around the $114,000 area as it has “historically preceded upside into at least $117.3k.” He noted that on the previous occasions when the price Daily Closed above this level, Bitcoin was able to rally to at least $117,300, even if the bounce eventually led to more downside action. Nonetheless, “for bullish bias, it’s important $117.3k doesn’t turn into a resistance on this current move and so Bitcoin will need to Daily Close above $117.3k to continue towards $120k over time,” the analyst warned. BTC’s Macro Structure Shows Strength Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC managed to maintain its macro bullish market structure, continuing to “print progressive Higher Lows despite the drastic downside, which is a sign of strong continued premium-buying behaviour on price pullbacks.” He also noted that Bitcoin has been consolidating within the $108,000-$116,000 levels in the monthly timeframe, upside wicking beyond the range high and downside wicking below the range low since July. The analyst suggested that the downside wicks could be a positive sign since “it signifies a liquidity grab at lower price levels that could add the necessary fuel to attempt a Macro Range breakout.” “As a matter of fact, Bitcoin has been upside wicking beyond the $116k Range High far more frequently in recent months compared to the downside wicking below the $108k Range Low, which is a testament to the Range Low’s role as a stable higher timeframe support,” he explained. Rekt Capital added that a downside wick below the range low was inevitable, as the price had not experienced such volatility in months. He concluded that holding the $114,000 support in the weekly timeframe is the key level for a new challenge of the Range Highs. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $112,610, a 2.7% decline in the daily timeframe. - Hoje
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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1594 and showed a slight decline. However, by evening, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above 1.1594. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the resistance level at 1.1645–1.1656. A rebound from this zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward 1.1594 and 1.1517. A firm close above the level would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1718. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Therefore, the trend is still "bearish." However, the latest labor market data and changing expectations for Fed monetary policy are supporting bullish traders, so I anticipate a shift to a "bullish" trend soon. To end the current "bearish" trend, the price must consolidate above the last high at 1.1779. On Tuesday, bearish traders attempted another attack, and early in the day the news background made this scenario quite realistic. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Indices came in weaker than expected, allowing bears to gain new momentum. However, later in the day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that while the outlook for the economy and inflation remains uncertain, it hasn't changed much since the last Fed meeting. According to Powell, the data released before the government shutdown showed an acceleration in inflation and economic activity. He also noted a rise in unemployment in recent months but emphasized that it remains low overall. "Short-term inflation expectations have increased due to import tariffs, but in the long run, inflation forecasts remain at 2%," Powell said. Thus, Powell didn't provide any major new information on Tuesday, but traders continue to doubt whether the Fed will decide to cut rates in October without fresh economic data. Overall, market uncertainty remains high, much of it related to Federal Reserve policy and Donald Trump's actions. On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below 1.1680, allowing traders to expect continued decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1495. However, a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator may help stop the current decline. A close above 1.1680 and the descending trend channel would favor the euro and signal a potential resumption of the "bullish" trend toward the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1854. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. The sentiment among the non-commercial category remains bullish, thanks largely to Donald Trump's policies, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 252,000, while short positions total 138,000 — a nearly two-to-one difference. Also, note the number of green cells in the table above: they reflect strong increases in positions on the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines. For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing their short positions and increasing their long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain a major factor for traders, as they could lead to long-term, structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators are showing declines. Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone Eurozone – Industrial Production Change (09:00 UTC) For October 15, the economic calendar includes only one "second-tier" event. Therefore, the influence of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will likely be minimal. EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips Sell positions are possible today if the pair rebounds from the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1594 and 1.1517. Buy positions could have been considered upon closing above 1.1594, with targets at 1.1645–1.1656. Today, a firm close above 1.1645–1.1656 would allow traders to keep long positions open, targeting 1.1718. Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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During economic uncertainty, investors often flock to precious metals. These assets tend to hold their value when others fall and can help guard against inflation. Unlike paper currencies, they offer tangible worth that can’t be eroded by government policies. Among them, silver stands out thanks to its dual nature. It functions as an industrial metal essential in electronics, solar panels, and medical applications while serving as an investment asset. This article analyzes silver’s historical performance during major downturns, examining silver price during recession periods compared to other investments and whether it deserves consideration as a portfolio stabilizer during turbulent economic times. Looking for more insights on how silver behaves during economic downturns? This informative analysis breaks down silver’s historical performance during various recession periods: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5wDHuSgooU Silver’s Historical Performance During Major Recessions Over the past 50 years, silver’s performance during recessions has followed clear patterns. Although each downturn is different, silver has shown both weakness and resilience depending on the nature of the recession, monetary policy responses, and overall market sentiment. This section looks at four major recessions to shed light on the question “How does silver perform in a recession?”. The 1970s Recession and Silver’s Price Movement The stagflation of the 1970s, characterized by high inflation and stagnant economic growth, created ideal conditions for the silver market recession response. Silver prices surged from under $2 per ounce in early 1970 to nearly $50 by January 1980, delivering one of the most dramatic bull runs in its history. During this decade, silver vastly outperformed traditional assets. While the S&P 500 struggled with inflation-adjusted losses and bond yields were eroded by rising prices, silver delivered exponential gains. Though gold drew more headlines, silver outpaced it in percentage terms, highlighting its role as a high-performing inflation hedge. Chart: S&P500 vs. Dow Jones vs. Gold vs. Silver (1973-1975). Source: Data from LongTermTrends.net. Silver During the 1981 Recession The 1981-1982 recession tells a different story for silver markets. According to data from Visual Capitalist, silver underperformed compared to both gold and equities during this contraction. Silver prices fell from approximately $16 to $8 per ounce through this period. This was influenced by two key factors. Firstly, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation played a significant role, driving up the value of the U.S. dollar and making precious metals less attractive. Secondly, silver faced pressure from weak industrial demand as economic activity slowed, alongside reduced investor interest in commodities. Chart: S&P500 vs. Dow Jones vs. Gold vs. Silver (1981-1982). Source: Data from LongTermTrends.net. COVID-19 Economic Contraction and Silver Prices The COVID-19 pandemic created extreme volatility in silver markets. This recent case study illustrates what happens to silver prices during a recession characterized by global pandemic conditions and unprecedented monetary intervention. Initially, silver plummeted alongside equities, falling nearly 40% in March 2020 to below $12 per ounce as market liquidity evaporated. This initial reaction highlighted how silver can sometimes behave like risk assets during panic phases. However, silver’s recovery was remarkable, more than doubling from its lows within five months to over $28 per ounce by August 2020. This performance was driven by a combination of monetary stimulus, supply disruptions from mine closures, industrial demand recovery, and investor interest in hard assets. The COVID recession reinforced the pattern that while silver may not provide immediate recession protection, it often delivers strong performance during the recovery phase. Chart: S&P500 vs. Dow Jones vs. Gold vs. Silver (Feb-Apr 2020). Source: Data from LongTermTrends.net. Comparing Silver vs. Stocks During Recessions Understanding how silver performs relative to equities during economic downturns can help investors optimize their portfolio allocations when recession signals appear. Blanchard’s Silver vs. Stocks: Comparing Performance During Recessions provides further valuable insights into this relationship through historical analysis. Statistical Analysis: Silver vs. S&P 500 According to data highlighted by Visual Capitalist, silver vs stocks during recession analysis shows silver outperformed the S&P 500 in three of the last eight U.S. recessions. These periods were marked by economic instability, inflationary pressure, or financial crises, which tend to favor hard assets over equities. During the 1973-75 recession, silver surged due to inflation and geopolitical tensions, while the stock market experienced significant declines. Similarly, in the 1981 recession and the 2007-09 financial crisis, silver preserved or gained value as equities struggled. This pattern suggests that silver tends to excel in downturns driven by inflation, policy shifts, or market uncertainty. Chart: How Silver Performs During Recessions by Elements, Visual Capitalist (2022). Data sourced from Macrotrends and MarketsWiki. When Silver Outperforms Equities Silver typically outperforms stocks under three conditions: during high inflation and currency devaluation, during financial system stress, and following aggressive monetary stimulus. In 1973-75, silver rose sharply as inflation surged and confidence in traditional markets weakened. In 1981, although the Fed’s rate hikes later suppressed silver, it initially held strong due to inflation fears. During the 2007-09 crisis, silver acted as a safe-haven asset amid collapsing financial institutions and aggressive monetary stimulus. These case studies show that silver thrives when fiat currency value is in question or when investors seek a hedge against systemic risk – conditions under which equities typically underperform. Chart: Silver vs. S&P 500 When Stocks Outperform Silver Stocks tend to outperform silver during recession recovery phases marked by economic stabilization, rising consumer confidence, and strong corporate earnings. In such periods, investors shift from safe-haven assets like silver to risk assets like equities, anticipating growth and profitability. Silver underperforms when inflation is low or falling, interest rates are stable or rising, and industrial demand is weak. For example, during the mid-1990s recovery and the post-2001 recession period, silver lagged behind the S&P 500 as tech and financial sectors led the market rebound. These environments favor equity gains over precious metals, which lose appeal as fear and uncertainty fade. What Happens to Silver Prices During a Recession? While no two recessions impact silver identically, its prices follow distinctive patterns during economic downturns that reflect competing forces of supply, demand, and investor sentiment. Initial Market Reaction and Price Volatility In the early stages of a recession, silver prices often experience heightened volatility due to shifting investor sentiment and liquidity pressures. Initially, silver may drop as investors sell off assets to raise cash and cover losses elsewhere. This pattern was evident in 2008 when silver dropped from $21 to $16 per ounce and in March 2020 when prices plummeted nearly 40%. This liquidity-driven dip is common during sudden market stress, creating short-term pressure regardless of fundamental outlook. Industrial Demand Impact Silver is a key industrial material, with over 50% of its demand tied to manufacturing sectors such as electronics, solar energy, and medical devices. During recessions, when industrial production slows, this demand often contracts, putting downward pressure on silver prices. The electronics sector, which accounts for nearly 25% of industrial silver usage, often sees reduced output during recessions. Similarly, automotive industry slowdowns affect silver demand for electrical components. Investment Demand as Safe-Haven Asset Counterbalancing industrial weakness, investment demand for silver often increases during prolonged periods of market stress and economic uncertainty, influencing silver vs stocks during recession performance patterns. Investors typically turn to physical silver as a store of value, especially when inflation rises or confidence in financial markets declines. This is reflected in increased purchases from both retail and institutional buyers. Additionally, silver-backed ETFs often experience notable inflows during recessions, signaling heightened investor interest. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 recession, silver ETFs saw significant growth, with the iShares Silver Trust seeing inflows of over $500 million in April 2020 alone. Is Silver Just as Good as Gold in a Recession? While both metals serve as portfolio hedges during economic uncertainty, silver and gold behave quite differently in recessions, each offering distinct advantages and drawbacks for investors seeking protection. Comparing Silver and Gold Performance Historical data shows gold typically outperforms silver during recession initial phases. In the 2008 crisis, gold declined just 12% from peak to trough, while silver plummeted over 50%, making gold options like Blanchard Gold Products particularly attractive during early recession phases. However, silver often delivers stronger returns during recovery phases. After 2008, silver surged 400% from its lows versus gold’s 170%. The gold-to-silver ratio typically spikes during recessions, reaching 114:1 in March 2020 compared to its historical average of 60:1, often contracting during recoveries and creating potential opportunities. Blanchard’s Measuring the Impact of Silver versus Gold in Your Portfolio explores how these dynamics can influence optimal allocation between both metals. Chart: Historical Gold and Silver Prices (1992-2020). Data from London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Silver’s Higher Volatility Silver consistently demonstrates greater volatility than gold, with sharper price swings during both downturns and recoveries. During the 2020 COVID-19 disruption, silver dropped 40% compared to gold’s 15% decline but subsequently gained 140% versus gold’s 40% rise. This volatility stems from silver’s smaller market size (roughly one-tenth of gold’s), making it more susceptible to liquidity pressures. While gold typically offers a steadier, lower-risk profile, silver presents a higher risk-reward proposition. As such, silver tends to be more appealing to investors who can withstand short-term turbulence in pursuit of long-term upside. Industrial vs. Monetary Demand A key distinction between silver and gold lies in their demand sources. Silver derives a significant portion of its value from industrial use, making it more sensitive to economic slowdowns. In contrast, gold’s primary role as a monetary asset creates more consistent recession demand, with approximately 85% of annual demand from investment and central banks. Gold responds more directly to interest rates and currency concerns, while silver adds exposure to industrial recovery. This makes silver less reliable during recession depths but potentially more rewarding during recovery transitions. Is Silver a Good Investment During a Recession? While not a perfect safe haven, silver offers unique characteristics that may benefit portfolios positioned for both protection and recovery potential. This section examines the key considerations that can help investors decide if silver belongs in their recession strategy. Silver’s Pros During Economic Downturns When considering silver’s advantages during economic contractions, several factors stand out. First, silver provides effective inflation protection when central banks implement stimulus measures. Since silver cannot be created through monetary policy like currencies, it often preserves purchasing power when money supply expands. Second, silver serves as a portfolio diversifier, typically showing low correlation with traditional assets during market stress periods. Third, silver offers exceptional recovery potential. Following the 2008 crisis, prices rose over 400% from their lows as economic conditions improved while stimulus remained in place. Potential Drawbacks to Consider Despite its benefits, silver comes with some limitations during recessions, too. First, silver’s industrial demand component creates vulnerability when manufacturing activity declines, as roughly half of silver consumption comes from industrial applications. Second, silver exhibits substantially higher volatility than gold, with price swings often 2-3 times more severe in both directions, requiring greater investor conviction. Third, practical challenges exist. Physical silver requires considerable storage space due to its lower value density compared to gold. How to Invest in Silver for Recession Protection There are several ways for investors to access silver’s recession protection, each suited to different investment strategies and risk preferences. Physical Silver Options Investors looking for direct exposure to silver during a recession often turn to physical silver, such as coins and bars from reputable dealers like Blanchard Silver Products. These tangible assets offer a secure store of value, high liquidity, and recognition. However, premiums on physical silver can increase during market stress due to higher demand and supply chain disruptions. The cost of acquiring silver in its physical form during a recession period often exceeds the spot price, with premiums varying based on the type of silver, mint, and market conditions. Notably, during the March 2020 silver market recession, Silver Eagle premiums temporarily exceeded 100% over spot prices as retail demand surged while supply chains faced disruption. Paper Silver Investments Paper silver investments, such as silver-backed ETFs and mining stocks, offer a more liquid and accessible way to gain exposure to silver. ETFs track silver’s price without requiring physical storage, making them a convenient option. Mining stocks provide indirect exposure, benefiting from rising silver prices while offering additional growth potential through company performance. However, paper silver does not provide direct metal ownership and comes with its own set of risks, including tracking errors in ETFs and the volatility of mining stocks. Unlike physical silver, paper investments are subject to market fluctuations and can be impacted by factors beyond the price of silver itself, such as company management and geopolitical risks. Timing and Allocation Strategies When investing in silver, it’s important to carefully consider the appropriate portfolio allocation, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. Typically, financial advisors suggest allocating 5-10% of a diversified portfolio to precious metals like silver, though this can vary depending on an investor’s risk tolerance and market outlook. Some investors also consider numismatic options, as outlined in the Blanchard Rare Coins Guide, for additional portfolio diversification. For timing, a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach is often recommended. This strategy involves spreading purchases over time to reduce the impact of short-term price fluctuations, allowing investors to avoid making large commitments during market peaks. Conclusion Silver offers investors a compelling option during economic downturns, with historical performance showing a distinctive pattern across multiple recessions. When analyzing the question “How does silver perform in a recession?”, we see that while it typically faces initial pressure, it often delivers substantial returns during recovery phases. This behavior stems from silver’s unique dual role in the global economy, functioning simultaneously as an industrial commodity and a precious metal investment. As a portfolio component during uncertain times, silver provides diversification benefits that differ from both traditional assets and gold. Its ability to hedge against inflation while maintaining low correlation to equities creates defensive characteristics, while its essential role in manufacturing and technology gives investors exposure to eventual economic recovery that purely monetary metals cannot offer. However, investors should approach silver with appropriate allocation strategies. Its higher volatility requires greater conviction than gold, and its industrial demand component creates some vulnerability during manufacturing slowdowns. For those with suitable risk tolerance, silver represents not just a recession hedge but a potentially high-performing asset that can fulfill both protective and growth-oriented roles when strategically positioned within a diversified portfolio. FAQ Section 1. How does silver perform in a recession? Silver typically follows a distinct pattern during recessions: initial decline during market panic, followed by strong recovery when stimulus measures are implemented. It has outperformed the S&P 500 in three major recessions (1973, 1981, 2007), with performance driven by inflation rates, monetary policy responses, industrial demand fluctuations, and investor sentiment toward safe-haven assets during financial uncertainty. 2. Is silver just as good as gold in a recession? Silver offers different recession benefits than gold, not necessarily better or worse. While gold typically provides more stability during market turmoil (falling less during the 2008 crisis), silver tends to deliver stronger recovery performance (surging 400% after 2008 versus gold’s 170%). Silver’s higher volatility stems from its smaller market size and dual industrial-investment nature, creating greater downside risk during recession onset but potentially larger upside during economic recoveries when industrial demand returns. 3. What happens to silver prices during a recession? During a recession, silver prices typically follow a two-phase pattern. In the initial recession stage, silver often experiences significant selling pressure as investors liquidate positions to raise cash, causing prices to decline alongside risk assets. As the recession progresses and central banks implement accommodative monetary policies, silver prices tend to recover and potentially appreciate substantially, particularly when inflation concerns emerge or industrial demand begins to rebound while stimulus measures remain in place. 4. Is silver a good investment during a recession? Silver offers both advantages and risks during recessions. On the positive side, it acts as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation that often follow stimulus measures while providing portfolio diversification with recovery potential (rising over 400% after the 2008 crisis). However, silver also faces challenges during economic contractions since roughly half its demand comes from industrial applications, making it vulnerable to manufacturing slowdowns. 5. How does silver compare to stocks during recessions? Silver has outperformed the S&P 500 in three of the last eight recessions since the 1970s. Silver tends to excel over stocks when specific economic conditions emerge: high or rising inflation that erodes equity valuations, significant currency devaluation concerns following aggressive monetary stimulus, and periods of financial system stress where confidence in traditional markets falters. However, stocks typically outperform silver during disinflationary recessions and in recovery phases characterized by strong growth without significant inflation pressures. Photos: Image: Solar panel array. Image credit: The Silver Institute Silver Britannia coin. Photo: Osama Madlom/Unsplash The post Silver Performance During Recessions appeared first on Blanchard and Company.
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During economic uncertainty, investors often flock to precious metals. These assets tend to hold their value when others fall and can help guard against inflation. Unlike paper currencies, they offer tangible worth that can’t be eroded by government policies. Among them, silver stands out thanks to its dual nature. It functions as an industrial metal essential in electronics, solar panels, and medical applications while serving as an investment asset. This article analyzes silver’s historical performance during major downturns, examining silver price during recession periods compared to other investments and whether it deserves consideration as a portfolio stabilizer during turbulent economic times. Looking for more insights on how silver behaves during economic downturns? This informative analysis breaks down silver’s historical performance during various recession periods: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5wDHuSgooU Silver’s Historical Performance During Major Recessions Over the past 50 years, silver’s performance during recessions has followed clear patterns. Although each downturn is different, silver has shown both weakness and resilience depending on the nature of the recession, monetary policy responses, and overall market sentiment. This section looks at four major recessions to shed light on the question “How does silver perform in a recession?”. The 1970s Recession and Silver’s Price Movement The stagflation of the 1970s, characterized by high inflation and stagnant economic growth, created ideal conditions for the silver market recession response. Silver prices surged from under $2 per ounce in early 1970 to nearly $50 by January 1980, delivering one of the most dramatic bull runs in its history. During this decade, silver vastly outperformed traditional assets. While the S&P 500 struggled with inflation-adjusted losses and bond yields were eroded by rising prices, silver delivered exponential gains. Though gold drew more headlines, silver outpaced it in percentage terms, highlighting its role as a high-performing inflation hedge. Chart: S&P500 vs. Dow Jones vs. Gold vs. Silver (1973-1975). Source: Data from LongTermTrends.net. Silver During the 1981 Recession The 1981-1982 recession tells a different story for silver markets. According to data from Visual Capitalist, silver underperformed compared to both gold and equities during this contraction. Silver prices fell from approximately $16 to $8 per ounce through this period. This was influenced by two key factors. Firstly, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation played a significant role, driving up the value of the U.S. dollar and making precious metals less attractive. Secondly, silver faced pressure from weak industrial demand as economic activity slowed, alongside reduced investor interest in commodities. Chart: S&P500 vs. Dow Jones vs. Gold vs. Silver (1981-1982). Source: Data from LongTermTrends.net. COVID-19 Economic Contraction and Silver Prices The COVID-19 pandemic created extreme volatility in silver markets. This recent case study illustrates what happens to silver prices during a recession characterized by global pandemic conditions and unprecedented monetary intervention. Initially, silver plummeted alongside equities, falling nearly 40% in March 2020 to below $12 per ounce as market liquidity evaporated. This initial reaction highlighted how silver can sometimes behave like risk assets during panic phases. However, silver’s recovery was remarkable, more than doubling from its lows within five months to over $28 per ounce by August 2020. This performance was driven by a combination of monetary stimulus, supply disruptions from mine closures, industrial demand recovery, and investor interest in hard assets. The COVID recession reinforced the pattern that while silver may not provide immediate recession protection, it often delivers strong performance during the recovery phase. Chart: S&P500 vs. Dow Jones vs. Gold vs. Silver (Feb-Apr 2020). Source: Data from LongTermTrends.net. Comparing Silver vs. Stocks During Recessions Understanding how silver performs relative to equities during economic downturns can help investors optimize their portfolio allocations when recession signals appear. Blanchard’s Silver vs. Stocks: Comparing Performance During Recessions provides further valuable insights into this relationship through historical analysis. Statistical Analysis: Silver vs. S&P 500 According to data highlighted by Visual Capitalist, silver vs stocks during recession analysis shows silver outperformed the S&P 500 in three of the last eight U.S. recessions. These periods were marked by economic instability, inflationary pressure, or financial crises, which tend to favor hard assets over equities. During the 1973-75 recession, silver surged due to inflation and geopolitical tensions, while the stock market experienced significant declines. Similarly, in the 1981 recession and the 2007-09 financial crisis, silver preserved or gained value as equities struggled. This pattern suggests that silver tends to excel in downturns driven by inflation, policy shifts, or market uncertainty. Chart: How Silver Performs During Recessions by Elements, Visual Capitalist (2022). Data sourced from Macrotrends and MarketsWiki. When Silver Outperforms Equities Silver typically outperforms stocks under three conditions: during high inflation and currency devaluation, during financial system stress, and following aggressive monetary stimulus. In 1973-75, silver rose sharply as inflation surged and confidence in traditional markets weakened. In 1981, although the Fed’s rate hikes later suppressed silver, it initially held strong due to inflation fears. During the 2007-09 crisis, silver acted as a safe-haven asset amid collapsing financial institutions and aggressive monetary stimulus. These case studies show that silver thrives when fiat currency value is in question or when investors seek a hedge against systemic risk – conditions under which equities typically underperform. Chart: Silver vs. S&P 500 When Stocks Outperform Silver Stocks tend to outperform silver during recession recovery phases marked by economic stabilization, rising consumer confidence, and strong corporate earnings. In such periods, investors shift from safe-haven assets like silver to risk assets like equities, anticipating growth and profitability. Silver underperforms when inflation is low or falling, interest rates are stable or rising, and industrial demand is weak. For example, during the mid-1990s recovery and the post-2001 recession period, silver lagged behind the S&P 500 as tech and financial sectors led the market rebound. These environments favor equity gains over precious metals, which lose appeal as fear and uncertainty fade. What Happens to Silver Prices During a Recession? While no two recessions impact silver identically, its prices follow distinctive patterns during economic downturns that reflect competing forces of supply, demand, and investor sentiment. Initial Market Reaction and Price Volatility In the early stages of a recession, silver prices often experience heightened volatility due to shifting investor sentiment and liquidity pressures. Initially, silver may drop as investors sell off assets to raise cash and cover losses elsewhere. This pattern was evident in 2008 when silver dropped from $21 to $16 per ounce and in March 2020 when prices plummeted nearly 40%. This liquidity-driven dip is common during sudden market stress, creating short-term pressure regardless of fundamental outlook. Industrial Demand Impact Silver is a key industrial material, with over 50% of its demand tied to manufacturing sectors such as electronics, solar energy, and medical devices. During recessions, when industrial production slows, this demand often contracts, putting downward pressure on silver prices. The electronics sector, which accounts for nearly 25% of industrial silver usage, often sees reduced output during recessions. Similarly, automotive industry slowdowns affect silver demand for electrical components. Investment Demand as Safe-Haven Asset Counterbalancing industrial weakness, investment demand for silver often increases during prolonged periods of market stress and economic uncertainty, influencing silver vs stocks during recession performance patterns. Investors typically turn to physical silver as a store of value, especially when inflation rises or confidence in financial markets declines. This is reflected in increased purchases from both retail and institutional buyers. Additionally, silver-backed ETFs often experience notable inflows during recessions, signaling heightened investor interest. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 recession, silver ETFs saw significant growth, with the iShares Silver Trust seeing inflows of over $500 million in April 2020 alone. Is Silver Just as Good as Gold in a Recession? While both metals serve as portfolio hedges during economic uncertainty, silver and gold behave quite differently in recessions, each offering distinct advantages and drawbacks for investors seeking protection. Comparing Silver and Gold Performance Historical data shows gold typically outperforms silver during recession initial phases. In the 2008 crisis, gold declined just 12% from peak to trough, while silver plummeted over 50%, making gold options like Blanchard Gold Products particularly attractive during early recession phases. However, silver often delivers stronger returns during recovery phases. After 2008, silver surged 400% from its lows versus gold’s 170%. The gold-to-silver ratio typically spikes during recessions, reaching 114:1 in March 2020 compared to its historical average of 60:1, often contracting during recoveries and creating potential opportunities. Blanchard’s Measuring the Impact of Silver versus Gold in Your Portfolio explores how these dynamics can influence optimal allocation between both metals. Chart: Historical Gold and Silver Prices (1992-2020). Data from London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Silver’s Higher Volatility Silver consistently demonstrates greater volatility than gold, with sharper price swings during both downturns and recoveries. During the 2020 COVID-19 disruption, silver dropped 40% compared to gold’s 15% decline but subsequently gained 140% versus gold’s 40% rise. This volatility stems from silver’s smaller market size (roughly one-tenth of gold’s), making it more susceptible to liquidity pressures. While gold typically offers a steadier, lower-risk profile, silver presents a higher risk-reward proposition. As such, silver tends to be more appealing to investors who can withstand short-term turbulence in pursuit of long-term upside. Industrial vs. Monetary Demand A key distinction between silver and gold lies in their demand sources. Silver derives a significant portion of its value from industrial use, making it more sensitive to economic slowdowns. In contrast, gold’s primary role as a monetary asset creates more consistent recession demand, with approximately 85% of annual demand from investment and central banks. Gold responds more directly to interest rates and currency concerns, while silver adds exposure to industrial recovery. This makes silver less reliable during recession depths but potentially more rewarding during recovery transitions. Is Silver a Good Investment During a Recession? While not a perfect safe haven, silver offers unique characteristics that may benefit portfolios positioned for both protection and recovery potential. This section examines the key considerations that can help investors decide if silver belongs in their recession strategy. Silver’s Pros During Economic Downturns When considering silver’s advantages during economic contractions, several factors stand out. First, silver provides effective inflation protection when central banks implement stimulus measures. Since silver cannot be created through monetary policy like currencies, it often preserves purchasing power when money supply expands. Second, silver serves as a portfolio diversifier, typically showing low correlation with traditional assets during market stress periods. Third, silver offers exceptional recovery potential. Following the 2008 crisis, prices rose over 400% from their lows as economic conditions improved while stimulus remained in place. Potential Drawbacks to Consider Despite its benefits, silver comes with some limitations during recessions, too. First, silver’s industrial demand component creates vulnerability when manufacturing activity declines, as roughly half of silver consumption comes from industrial applications. Second, silver exhibits substantially higher volatility than gold, with price swings often 2-3 times more severe in both directions, requiring greater investor conviction. Third, practical challenges exist. Physical silver requires considerable storage space due to its lower value density compared to gold. How to Invest in Silver for Recession Protection There are several ways for investors to access silver’s recession protection, each suited to different investment strategies and risk preferences. Physical Silver Options Investors looking for direct exposure to silver during a recession often turn to physical silver, such as coins and bars from reputable dealers like Blanchard Silver Products. These tangible assets offer a secure store of value, high liquidity, and recognition. However, premiums on physical silver can increase during market stress due to higher demand and supply chain disruptions. The cost of acquiring silver in its physical form during a recession period often exceeds the spot price, with premiums varying based on the type of silver, mint, and market conditions. Notably, during the March 2020 silver market recession, Silver Eagle premiums temporarily exceeded 100% over spot prices as retail demand surged while supply chains faced disruption. Paper Silver Investments Paper silver investments, such as silver-backed ETFs and mining stocks, offer a more liquid and accessible way to gain exposure to silver. ETFs track silver’s price without requiring physical storage, making them a convenient option. Mining stocks provide indirect exposure, benefiting from rising silver prices while offering additional growth potential through company performance. However, paper silver does not provide direct metal ownership and comes with its own set of risks, including tracking errors in ETFs and the volatility of mining stocks. Unlike physical silver, paper investments are subject to market fluctuations and can be impacted by factors beyond the price of silver itself, such as company management and geopolitical risks. Timing and Allocation Strategies When investing in silver, it’s important to carefully consider the appropriate portfolio allocation, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. Typically, financial advisors suggest allocating 5-10% of a diversified portfolio to precious metals like silver, though this can vary depending on an investor’s risk tolerance and market outlook. Some investors also consider numismatic options, as outlined in the Blanchard Rare Coins Guide, for additional portfolio diversification. For timing, a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach is often recommended. This strategy involves spreading purchases over time to reduce the impact of short-term price fluctuations, allowing investors to avoid making large commitments during market peaks. Conclusion Silver offers investors a compelling option during economic downturns, with historical performance showing a distinctive pattern across multiple recessions. When analyzing the question “How does silver perform in a recession?”, we see that while it typically faces initial pressure, it often delivers substantial returns during recovery phases. This behavior stems from silver’s unique dual role in the global economy, functioning simultaneously as an industrial commodity and a precious metal investment. As a portfolio component during uncertain times, silver provides diversification benefits that differ from both traditional assets and gold. Its ability to hedge against inflation while maintaining low correlation to equities creates defensive characteristics, while its essential role in manufacturing and technology gives investors exposure to eventual economic recovery that purely monetary metals cannot offer. However, investors should approach silver with appropriate allocation strategies. Its higher volatility requires greater conviction than gold, and its industrial demand component creates some vulnerability during manufacturing slowdowns. For those with suitable risk tolerance, silver represents not just a recession hedge but a potentially high-performing asset that can fulfill both protective and growth-oriented roles when strategically positioned within a diversified portfolio. FAQ Section 1. How does silver perform in a recession? Silver typically follows a distinct pattern during recessions: initial decline during market panic, followed by strong recovery when stimulus measures are implemented. It has outperformed the S&P 500 in three major recessions (1973, 1981, 2007), with performance driven by inflation rates, monetary policy responses, industrial demand fluctuations, and investor sentiment toward safe-haven assets during financial uncertainty. 2. Is silver just as good as gold in a recession? Silver offers different recession benefits than gold, not necessarily better or worse. While gold typically provides more stability during market turmoil (falling less during the 2008 crisis), silver tends to deliver stronger recovery performance (surging 400% after 2008 versus gold’s 170%). Silver’s higher volatility stems from its smaller market size and dual industrial-investment nature, creating greater downside risk during recession onset but potentially larger upside during economic recoveries when industrial demand returns. 3. What happens to silver prices during a recession? During a recession, silver prices typically follow a two-phase pattern. In the initial recession stage, silver often experiences significant selling pressure as investors liquidate positions to raise cash, causing prices to decline alongside risk assets. As the recession progresses and central banks implement accommodative monetary policies, silver prices tend to recover and potentially appreciate substantially, particularly when inflation concerns emerge or industrial demand begins to rebound while stimulus measures remain in place. 4. Is silver a good investment during a recession? Silver offers both advantages and risks during recessions. On the positive side, it acts as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation that often follow stimulus measures while providing portfolio diversification with recovery potential (rising over 400% after the 2008 crisis). However, silver also faces challenges during economic contractions since roughly half its demand comes from industrial applications, making it vulnerable to manufacturing slowdowns. 5. How does silver compare to stocks during recessions? Silver has outperformed the S&P 500 in three of the last eight recessions since the 1970s. Silver tends to excel over stocks when specific economic conditions emerge: high or rising inflation that erodes equity valuations, significant currency devaluation concerns following aggressive monetary stimulus, and periods of financial system stress where confidence in traditional markets falters. However, stocks typically outperform silver during disinflationary recessions and in recovery phases characterized by strong growth without significant inflation pressures. Photos: Image: Solar panel array. Image credit: The Silver Institute Silver Britannia coin. Photo: Osama Madlom/Unsplash The post Silver Performance During Recessions appeared first on Blanchard and Company.
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Crypto Bull Run Ahead: Powell Just Telegraphed End Of QT
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Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) says Jerome Powell has effectively signaled the wind-down of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program—an inflection he argues has historically unlocked altcoin outperformance and could underpin the next broad crypto rally. In a video analysis posted yesterday, Kevin framed Powell’s appearance at the National Association for Business Economics forum yesterday as unusually balance-sheet centric and tantamount to advance guidance: “This man came out today and literally sat there and spoke about the balance sheet the entire time… he telegraphed… we’re probably going to end the quantitative tightening program in the coming months.” He added, “The Fed telegraphs what they’re going to do with monetary policy… they don’t want to come out in surprise rate cuts or surprise rate hikes.” Several experts like BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes and Walter Bloomberg confirmed the interpretation via X. Start Of The Crypto Bull Run Kevin’s core claim is unambiguous: durable altcoin cycles have required a neutral or expanding Fed balance sheet, and QT has marked their demise. “We know the correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and durable altcoin outperformance is literally one-to-one… That’s it. That’s the correlation. It’s one to one. It’s 100% hit rate,” he said, pointing to a multi-year chart of “total others versus Bitcoin” that he has tracked “for years.” According to his read, every time QT has started, altcoins have entered a bear market against BTC; when the balance sheet has shifted to neutral or QE, “altcoin season is able to occur.” The timing around last week’s violent cross-market liquidation reinforced his thesis, in his view. Kevin noted that “as soon as we see a 70–80% crash on altcoins on their USD pairs and then total others versus Bitcoin taps this major support level… three days after that, Powell comes out and telegraphs… we’re going to end [QT] in the coming months.” He stopped short of alleging intent—“I don’t like to go down the rabbit hole of manipulation… it just seems a little odd”—but argued the macro liquidity pivot now appears in sight: “All we know is that the Fed did telegraph that they are going to be ending QT, and that should be happening either by the end of the year or first thing next year.” While his macro read is overtly constructive, Kevin emphasized he is not trading it blindly. ” In practice, he is waiting for validation across two pillars: Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe moving averages and the USDT dominance structure. On Bitcoin, he repeated a rule he has used across cycles: “Anytime Bitcoin has lost the 2-day 200 SMA and EMA, the cycle was over. Anytime Bitcoin has lost the 50-week SMA on the weekly time frame, the cycle was over.” He located the current “cycle validators” around the rising band that, on his charts, spans “$102,000 to $96,500,” with $98,000/$96,000 the approximate line in the sand. “If you break $98K, slash $96.5K on multiple weekly closes… the cycle’s probably over,” he said. The stablecoin gauge—USDT dominance—remains his market metronome. Kevin described a “classic textbook macro descending triangle” in USDT.D with a “flat bottom” near “3.9%–3.7%” and lower highs into two-week moving averages. “There’s a 70–80% chance that this descending triangle ends up breaking down and crypto goes higher,” he said, cautioning that a minority of such formations do break up. “I don’t plan on doing a thing until it does break… I ain’t going to be the guy who sat here this entire time tracking this incredible pattern… and then deviate away from it now.” What To Watch Now Beyond liquidity, Kevin addressed the perennial four-year-cycle debate head-on. By his dashboards—ROI since halving, ROI since cycle bottom—“you’re at the end of the cycle… the four-year cycle’s over.” But he argued that macro still governs whether price must top on schedule. Running a “process of elimination,” he said the backdrop does not currently resemble 2021’s inflation shock or a clear earnings/bubble unraveling, though he acknowledged exogenous risks such as renewed US–China tariff escalation. “Unless something macro-related durably tops this market, there’s still a chance that it goes higher,” he said. “Crypto is not invulnerable to the macro… all markets are literally tied one-to-one to the macro. Period.” Technically, he remains cautious on breadth. He highlighted persistent weekly bearish divergences on Bitcoin, Total2 (large-cap ex-BTC), and Total3 (ex-BTC, ex-ETH), and the failure to secure decisive weekly closes above “120K–125K,” which, in his words, produced “two weekly reversal candles [and] a monthly reversal candle” and “lower highs in the weekly RSI.” The August-to-present message, he said, has been consistent: “Be cautious… If you’re in altcoins from way lower, take some profits… Don’t buy anything right now… wait for a resolution.” Still, the QT call is the pivot he’s watching most closely. “We are at a critical stage in the history of crypto… I want a definitive answer.” At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.79 trillion. -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday rebounded from the 1.3332–1.3357 level and declined toward the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.3225. However, in the second half of the day, the pair reversed in favor of the pound and returned to the 1.3332–1.3357 level. A firm move above this zone would support continued growth toward the next 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425. The wave structure still looks "bearish." The most recent upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. The news background in recent weeks has been negative for the U.S. dollar, yet bullish traders have not taken full advantage of these opportunities. To cancel the "bearish" trend, the pair needs to rise above 1.3528 or form two consecutive "bullish" waves. If the pound is unwilling or unable to rise on its own, help always comes from U.S. news. In recent weeks, bears have launched confident attacks, often without a strong fundamental basis. However, yesterday's weak U.K. economic data gave them new momentum. Their pressure eased by evening, though, after Donald Trump threatened China with new tariffs and sanctions, and Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed intends to make decisions solely based on economic data. In fact, Powell's "tough" stance is generally good news for the dollar. If the data do not justify monetary easing, the Fed will likely refrain from cutting interest rates. However, current economic indicators do point to the need for monetary easing — which is why markets now expect another rate cut at the end of October. As for Trump's statements, they once again highlight rising tensions between the U.S. and China — something that hardly supports bearish sentiment. In my view, a "bullish" trend could soon resume. On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below the 1.3339–1.3435 level, which allows for continued decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.3118. However, the emergence of a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator also raises the possibility of a reversal in favor of the pound and some upward movement. A close above 1.3339 would also allow expectations of further pound growth. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report The sentiment among non-commercial traders became more bullish during the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 85,000 vs. 86,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the balance in their favor. In my view, the pound still faces downward risks, but with each passing month, the U.S. dollar looks increasingly weak. Previously, traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies without knowing their eventual outcomes — but now they are concerned about the consequences: a possible recession, the constant imposition of new tariffs, and Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed, which could make the regulator politically dependent on the White House. As a result, the pound now seems far less risky than the U.S. currency. Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K. For October 15, the economic calendar contains no significant releases. Therefore, news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Wednesday. GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips Sell positions are possible today if the pair rebounds from the 1.3332–1.3357 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3225. Buy positions can be considered if the pair closes above 1.3332–1.3357, targeting 1.3425. Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3332–1.3725 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Bitcoin suffered another sell-off yesterday, but demand for the leading cryptocurrency soon revived. Inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs also resumed. This fresh capital inflow was first recorded yesterday, following the sharp market crash on October 10th this year. The renewed appetite for risk emerged amid a broader stabilization of sentiment across global financial markets. Investors likely viewed the October 10th dip as a "buy-the-dip" opportunity, which in turn sparked the renewed interest in spot ETFs. Particularly noteworthy was the increased demand for spot ETH ETFs — a sign of growing recognition of Ethereum as a key component of the crypto ecosystem. Inflows into these ETFs may signal investor confidence in Ethereum's long-term potential and its critical role in the development of decentralized applications and the DeFi sector. As for the October 10th crash, one of the largest international cryptocurrency exchanges — partially blamed for triggering the sell-off — announced yesterday the launch of a $400 million initiative titled "Together" to compensate users who suffered forced liquidations during the sudden crash last Friday. However, skepticism remains high among affected traders. Many believe the $400 million fund is merely a drop in the ocean compared to the total losses incurred. Furthermore, the criteria for compensation eligibility and the distribution mechanism remain unclear. There are growing concerns that the process will be opaque and bureaucratic, leading to delayed payments and unfair allocation of funds. The exchange stated that it will compensate eligible traders with vouchers worth approximately $300 million and will establish a $100 million low-interest loan fund aimed at helping the ecosystem and institutional users resume trading. Interestingly, a report surfaced today claiming that a user who lost around $2 million on the platform received a compensation voucher worth just $0.26. Trading recommendations Bitcoin From a technical standpoint, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $113,800 level, which would pave the way toward $116,300 — and from there, a push to $118,400 is within reach. The ultimate upside target is the resistance area near $120,600, a breakout above which would signal a strengthening bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected to step in around $111,400. A drop below this level could quickly send BTC down to the $109,300 zone, with the final support target near $106,700. Ethereum Ethereum has firmly established support above the $4,180 level, which opens a clear path toward $4,318. The furthest bullish target is the resistance near $4,403 — a breakout above this level would confirm growing bullish momentum and rising investor interest. In the event of a decline, buyers are expected around the $4,037 support level. A move below that could send ETH down to $3,858, with a final support target near $3,717. What's on the chart The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply. The green line shows the 50-day moving average. The blue line is the 100-day moving average. The lime line is the 200-day moving average. Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Crypto is heating up today after news on comments by Jerome Powell, which are unexpectedly dovish-sounding. Powell cited softness in employment and suggested further rate cuts, and many are wondering whether the Bitcoin price might bounce back from recent weakness. At the same time, the BNB airdrop from Binance and Four Meme has sparked renewed excitement in the altcoin space, especially meme coins. Powell pointed out that downside risks in the labor market are becoming more evident, and he hinted that the era of aggressive tightening could be over. This type of tone has historically tended to favor risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies. Immediately after his remarks, Bitcoin’s price jumped, gaining more than 1% in the last 24 hours. Learn more reclaimed the $116,000 level, only to quickly lose it, as it is already back down at $112,400. XRP is facing significant challenges due to market uncertainty, and dropped from $2.9 to $2.3 at the lows of Friday’s crash. While there was some positive momentum to begin the week, with XRP briefly reclaiming $2.65, renewed selling pressure has emerged. As a result, traders are reconsidering their price predictions for XRP USD in the coming weeks. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Read the original piece here. 33 minutes ago Why Did FET Price Just Dump: Is Bittensor Crypto Stealing The Show From Artificial Superintelligence Alliance? By Akiyama Felix What just happened to the FET price? Traders woke up to another shock in the AI crypto sector, as Fetch.ai’s FET token, now part of the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (ASI), collapsed from $0.37 to $0.3, marking one of its sharpest drops since the crash on October 10, 2025. The decline follows Ocean Protocol’s sudden exit from the alliance on October 9, 2025, shaking investor confidence in the decentralised AI merger between Fetch.ai, SingularityNET, and Ocean. Combined with broader market liquidations and the rise of Bittensor (TAO), investors are questioning whether the ASI vision can survive, or if TAO is becoming the new AI king. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Read the full story here. The post Crypto Market News Today, October 15: Will Jerome Powell Dovish Remark Pump Bitcoin Price? Binance’s and Four Meme’s BNB Airdrop Reignites Meme Season appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
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Yesterday, Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that the U.S. central bank should continue lowering interest rates this year to support the labor market — while keeping them high enough to restrain inflation. "Given that inflation risks have become somewhat more contained and the risks to employment have increased, it seems reasonable to continue normalizing policy this year to support the labor market," Collins said Tuesday in remarks prepared for an event at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Her statement came amid ongoing debates about the future of the Fed's monetary policy and its impact on the economy. Collins' speech highlights the complexity of the task facing the central bank: balancing the need to stimulate the labor market with the need to curb inflation, which, despite some decline, remains above target. Her proposal for a gradual reduction in rates — while keeping them at a relatively high level — represents a compromise approach aimed at minimizing risks to both objectives. However, opinions among economists and experts about the Fed's optimal strategy differ. Some argue that the central bank should cut rates more aggressively to support economic growth, even at the cost of temporarily higher inflation. Others, conversely, favor a more cautious approach, warning that cutting rates too quickly could undermine efforts to stabilize prices. "Even with some additional easing, monetary policy will remain moderately restrictive, which will help ensure that inflation resumes its decline once tariff effects work their way through the economy," she said. Investors now expect that the Fed leadership will lower rates at the meeting later this month — a move Fed Chair Jerome Powell also clearly signaled yesterday. This would mark the second rate cut of the year, following the September decision to lower the key rate by a quarter point to the target range of 4.00–4.25%. Collins noted that it is difficult to determine to what extent the recent decline in hiring reflects weaker demand for labor versus a reduced supply caused by a sharp slowdown in immigration. According to her, the monthly job growth needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate could soon fall to just 40,000, compared with roughly 80,000 before the pandemic. The Boston Fed chief also said she expects a relatively modest increase in the unemployment rate this year and in early 2026. Collins was also asked about her outlook on interest rates, to which she replied that policy does not follow a preset path and that she could envision a scenario in which officials keep rates unchanged after another round of easing in October — particularly amid the escalation of a new U.S.-China trade conflict. "A small additional easing of 25 basis points could be appropriate, but I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves," Collins said. The dollar reacted to all these comments with a solid drop against a range of risk assets. As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to think about breaking above 1.1630. Only then can they target a test of 1.1660. From there, they could climb to 1.1690, though doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1715 high. If the trading instrument falls toward 1.1600, I expect some serious action from large buyers. If none appear, it would be wise to wait for an update of the 1.1570 low or open long positions from 1.1545. As for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break the nearest resistance at 1.3360. Only then can they aim for 1.3390, above which it will be difficult to advance. The most distant target will be the 1.3425 level. If the pair declines, the bears will try to regain control around 1.3330. If successful, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3290 low, with the potential to reach 1.3250. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell sharply against most risk assets — and there were objective reasons for that. During his speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. central bank intends to lower interest rates, even though the government shutdown is significantly limiting its ability to forecast the state of the economy. Speaking Tuesday at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Powell said that the economic outlook appeared to have remained unchanged since the policymakers' September meeting, when they cut interest rates and projected two more reductions this year. Powell repeatedly pointed to weak hiring growth and noted that it could deteriorate further. "We're at a stage where a further decline in job openings could well start affecting the unemployment rate," Powell said during a Q&A session following his prepared remarks. "We've gone through an extraordinary period when everything slowed down all at once, and now it's time to take care of the labor market." These comments came amid rising uncertainty about the global economic situation and growing concerns over a slowdown in U.S. economic growth. Investors viewed the Fed's readiness to ease monetary policy as a positive signal that could help sustain economic activity. However, many economists expressed concern about the lack of data due to the government shutdown, which complicates assessing the real state of the economy and making informed decisions. Given the limited data available, the Fed will be forced to rely on indirect indicators and its own expert judgment when deciding on the future path of interest rates. This introduces additional risks related to possible forecasting errors and inadequate responses to the changing economic environment. Nevertheless, Powell's signal indicates that the Fed remains committed to maintaining stability and supporting U.S. economic growth, even under heightened uncertainty. Expectations for a rate cut in October have remained virtually unchanged following Powell's remarks. Investors are pricing in nearly a 100% probability of a reduction, according to federal funds futures contracts. Recall that the Fed's September rate cut to a target range of 4.00–4.25% was the first since December and followed a sharp summer slowdown in hiring. However, the unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for October 28–29. Last month, the median forecast of the 19 Fed members projected two more rate cuts this year. However, nine officials believed one or fewer reductions would be appropriate. As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to think about breaking above 1.1630. Only then can they target a test of 1.1660. From there, they could climb to 1.1690, though doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1715 high. If the trading instrument falls toward 1.1600, I expect some serious action from large buyers. If none appear, it would be wise to wait for an update of the 1.1570 low or open long positions from 1.1545. As for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break the nearest resistance at 1.3360. Only then can they aim for 1.3390, above which it will be difficult to advance. The most distant target will be the 1.3425 level. If the pair declines, the bears will try to regain control around 1.3330. If successful, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3290 low, with the potential to reach 1.3250. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Forex forecast 15/10/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Oil, SP500 and Bitcoin
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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader. #instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
Sam Bankman-Fried Pardon? Laura Loomer Claims GOP-Linked Campaign Is Lobbying Trump
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I had a very weird dream last night… CZ and Sam Bankman-Fried were having beers in a bar close to my house. What does this mean? Maybe it’s a premonition that the notorious FTX scammer is getting out? Conservative activist Laura Loomer has alleged that a “well-funded and highly coordinated” campaign is pressuring figures in Donald Trump’s orbit to support a presidential pardon for convicted SBF. (SBF Odds Remain Low | Source: Polymarket) Loomer made the claims in multiple posts on X, warning that political operatives and crypto donors are attempting to recast SBF as a victim of political persecution. “There is a highly mobilized and well-funded effort on the right to lobby Trump world to pardon crypto scammer Sam Bankman-Fried,” Loomer wrote. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Conservative Circles Split Over Loomer’s Claims: Will Sam Bankman-Fried Get Out? (Source: X) CZ was the one who actually started the downfall of SBF and FTX when he mass sold all his FTX. For exposing the scam, many in the crypto community thought he was pretty based for doing that at the time, but clearly both have played dirty tricks in the crypto space. Regardless, because of the massive amount of wealth among crypto founders they can evade the law. Loomer’s remarks triggered debate within Republican circles, with some conservatives agreeing that a pardon would contradict Trump’s anti-corruption message. Others questioned her evidence, noting the lack of official confirmation from Trump’s campaign or SBF’s legal team. According to court documents, Bankman-Fried remains convicted on multiple counts of fraud and conspiracy, sentenced to 25 years in prison and ordered to forfeit $11Bn. DISCOVER: 15+ Upcoming Coinbase Listings to Watch in 2025 Data Shows FTX Fallout Still Ripples Through Crypto Crypto still hasn’t shaken off the FTX shadow. DeFi Llama puts total CEX value locked near $300 Bn, but is split between rising decentralized exchange value. There’s no evidence of a coordinated campaign for SBF’s release, but this underground, well-funded lobby movement seems plausible. Moreover, the controversy shows how deeply FTX still cuts through the industry’s fault lines. Even in collapse, SBF’s story keeps bending markets out of shape. DISCOVER: 9+ Best Memecoin to Buy in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways I had a very weird dream last night… CZ and Sam Bankman-Fried were having beers in a bar close to my house. What does this mean? Loomer made the claims in multiple posts on X, warning that political operatives and crypto donors are attempting to recast SBF as a victim The post Sam Bankman-Fried Pardon? Laura Loomer Claims GOP-Linked Campaign Is Lobbying Trump appeared first on 99Bitcoins. -
Gold's surge and three more reasons to stay invested right now
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Markets continue to display sharp movements. Gold and silver have reached record highs amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Shares of Wells Fargo surged after the bank raised its return targets and saw regulatory restrictions lifted. Google has committed a record $15 billion to develop an AI hub in India. Apple, in turn, is preparing to launch in the smart home market with a $350 premium hub while moving production to Vietnam. This article explores each of these events in depth and details the opportunities they unlock for traders. Gold sets records amid geopolitical tensions and Fed rate cut expectations Gold prices hit an all-time high on Wednesday, climbing to $4,185 per ounce, driven by escalating US-China trade disputes and expectations of two additional Fed rate cuts later this year. This section of the article explores the drivers behind the sharp rally in precious metals, the impact of global politics and monetary policy on commodity markets, and trading strategies for participants looking to harness current volatility. Declining yields on US Treasuries, which hit multi-week lows after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a potential rate cut, have once again made gold more attractive. Low yields and cheaper borrowing costs traditionally support precious metals, which do not generate interest income. Rising geopolitical risks also lifted gold demand after a statement by Donald Trump signaling a possible halt to vegetable oil trade with China. Investors rotated into safe-haven assets once again, while China promised retaliatory measures following the threat of an additional 100% tariff hike. The silver market showed even more dramatic performance: spot prices surged to a record $53.54 per ounce before sharply retreating as signs emerged of easing historical supply tightness in the London market. The spread between London and New York prices narrowed, and borrowing costs for the metal began to decline, though they remain elevated. Investors continue to track the US Section 232 investigation involving silver, platinum, and palladium, fearing the imposition of new tariffs despite formal exemptions granted in April. The four main precious metals have already gained 58–80% this year, making them top-performing commodity assets. This rally is supported by central bank purchases, growing ETF holdings, and expectations of further Fed policy easing. Contributing to the demand for safe havens are several macro risks: the US-China trade conflict, concerns about the Fed's independence, partial government shutdown in the US, and investors' need to hedge capital against currency devaluation due to widening fiscal deficits, commonly referred to as the "debasement trade." For traders, the current environment offers both short-term and medium-term opportunities. Pullbacks can serve as entry points to gradually build positions in gold and silver with limited risk, while medium-term strategies can focus on price growth driven by geopolitical catalysts and Fed policy expectations. Wells Fargo shares rallies on improved outlook and lifted regulatory restrictions Yesterday, shares of Wells Fargo & Co. posted an impressive gain, closing up 7.1%, the biggest daily increase since November 6 of last year, when markets rallied following Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. The stock's rally was driven not only by strong quarterly results, but also by the first major revision in the bank's medium-term profitability target in years, following the removal of its asset cap restriction. In this article, we break down the drivers of the rally, the bank's updated guidance, and the trading opportunities this unlocks. Wells Fargo was the top performer in the KBW Bank Index for the day, and over the past month it trails only Comerica Inc., whose stock was boosted by the announcement of 2025's largest bank merger, Fifth Third Bancorp's acquisition of Comerica. According to analyst Scott Siefers, beyond strong earnings, the key takeaway from Wells Fargo is that the bank is now executing with purpose and urgency. The primary catalyst for the rally was the upward revision of the bank's target return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) from 15% to a range of 17–18%. This metric reflects the bank's efficiency in generating profits available to common shareholders and is a key tool for assessing growth dynamics along with related costs. As of the end of September, the total assets of America's fourth-largest bank exceeded $2 trillion for the first time, following the Federal Reserve's decision in June to lift a cap on asset growth that had been in place since late 2017. Since the restriction was introduced, Wells Fargo's stock had significantly lagged behind peers, but the bank now has meaningful room for growth and reinvestment. In addition, CFO Mike Santomassimo told Bloomberg in an interview that Wells Fargo plans to repurchase roughly the same amount of shares in the final quarter of the year as it did in the third quarter, when the bank bought back $6.1 billion in common stock. This move further supports the stock price, signaling management's confidence in the company's outlook. Overall, analysts see the current momentum in Wells Fargo shares as a sign of sustained recovery after a prolonged period of regulatory constraints. The increase in ROTCE, asset growth, and active share buyback program form a strong foundation for continued appreciation in the stock's value. For traders, this may present both short-term and medium-term speculative opportunities: buying on pullbacks, trading around earnings momentum, and strategically using long positions based on the upgraded ROTCE outlook. To take advantage of these opportunities, register with InstaForex and download our app—receive instant market alerts, track real-time quotes, and react to every development, turning news into actionable trading decisions. Google invests $15 billion in India's largest AI hub Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, has announced a major project in India. Over the next five years, the company plans to invest around $15 billion in constructing an AI infrastructure hub in the port city of Visakhapatnam, marking Google's largest investment in the rapidly growing country. This article outlines the key details of the project, partnership agreements, market development forecasts, regional economic impact, and trading recommendations for those looking to capitalize on the new opportunities. The project involves the creation of a data center integrated with new energy sources and a fiber-optic network, in partnership with Indian magnate Gautam Adani through his firm AdaniConneX, as well as Bharti Airtel, the country's second-largest telecom operator. According to the government of Andhra Pradesh, the region is expected to reach 6 gigawatts of data center capacity by 2029, making Google's initiative a strategic component of the state's program to accelerate the development of the artificial intelligence industry. The scale of investment is striking: the Visakhapatnam data center alone is valued at over $10 billion. "This is not just about jobs, it's about the broader economic impact the project will generate," Nara Lokesh, the region's technology minister and son of state leader Nara Chandrababu Naidu, noted. Lokesh emphasized that the initiative is part of a broader "dual strategy," where industrial regional development and federal support go hand in hand. Google joins other American tech giants investing in India. Amazon plans to inject $12.7 billion into cloud infrastructure by 2030, while OpenAI is preparing to build a 1-gigawatt data center. CBRE experts forecast that investments in India's data center market will exceed $100 billion by 2027, positioning the region as one of the key beneficiaries of the global AI boom. However, these ambitious plans face significant challenges: limited water resources and unreliable electricity supply remain major obstacles to large-scale implementation. Nonetheless, the state government is providing land and energy incentives, while Naidu's proven track record in transforming Hyderabad into a tech hub fuels confidence in the success of the initiative. Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian emphasized that the hub is being built not only for the company's internal needs but also to support entrepreneurs, enterprises, and commercial organizations across India. For traders, the news of such a large-scale investment unlocks notable opportunities. Projects of this magnitude typically trigger volatility in the technology and infrastructure asset classes, allowing for strategic plays on both short-term price swings and medium-term trends. In the case of Google (Alphabet Inc.) stock, this implies monitoring price dynamics related to construction progress and key partnership announcements, locking in gains on short-term spikes following major news, and using pullbacks as entry points to scale into longer-term positions. Apple enters smart home market with $350 hub, shifts production to Vietnam Apple has announced the launch of its long-awaited smart home hub, scheduled for March 2026, which will become the company's new flagship product in the smart home segment. The $350 device, featuring a 7-inch display and both tabletop and wall-mounted configurations, is designed to compete with the Amazon Echo Show and other segment leaders. In this article, we analyze the device's key features, Apple's strategic manufacturing shift, market forecasts, the new product's financial implications, and practical recommendations for traders. Internally codenamed J490 for the tabletop version and J491 for the wall-mounted model, the hub resembles a HomePod mini with a screen, equipped with a FaceTime camera and software that recognizes family members to personalize features. The initial launch was planned for March 2025 but was postponed to accommodate an updated version of Siri based on next-generation architecture. The $350 price point is significantly higher than competitors and even the full-sized HomePod, reflecting Apple's premium positioning, delivering innovation at a price that often leaves competitors puzzled. Strategically, the shift lies in the fact that production of the device will be carried out in Vietnam by China's BYD, rather than the company's traditional Chinese manufacturing base. BYD will handle final assembly, testing, and packaging of the devices, aligning with Apple's broader efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing amid ongoing trade tensions. As of 2023, Apple suppliers operated 35 manufacturing facilities in Vietnam, with total investment in the country since 2019 reaching approximately $16 billion. Products already made there include AirPods, iPads, Apple Watch, and some Mac models. Nonetheless, exports from Vietnam are still subject to 20% tariffs in the US, which adds to costs and keeps market sentiment cautious. Apple's ambitions extend beyond the home hub. By the end of 2026, it plans to release an indoor security camera codenamed J450, and by 2027, a tabletop robot with a 9-inch display and motorized manipulator, which is expected to cost "several hundred dollars." With these additions, Apple is gradually building a smart home ecosystem that could potentially shift the balance of power against Amazon and Google. For traders, the news of the home hub and the production shift opens real opportunities. A direct impact could be a rise in Apple shares on news tied to the device's launch and expansion of manufacturing capabilities in Vietnam. Short-term volatility is expected around each major announcement, from the official rollout to the first demand reports. Using pullbacks as entry points allows for position-building with limited risk. Medium-term investors may view Apple stock as a proxy for participating in the smart home segment's expansion and the company's reinforced manufacturing footprint in Southeast Asia. To seize this opportunity, open an account with InstaForex and download our mobile app. Trade Apple shares and other instruments right from your smartphone, track the market in real time, and respond instantly to every important news trigger! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Extends Recovery Most Read: USD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie? Japanese stocks bounced back strongly on Wednesday, with the benchmark Nikkei index recovering from its biggest one-day loss since April, as investors bought back into the technology sector. The Nikkei 225 Index surged 1.8% to close at 47,672.67, making up for a significant part of its 2.6% drop from the previous session. The broader Topix index also climbed 1.6%. Leading the recovery were major tech stocks that had been hit hard by worries over the China-U.S. trade dispute. SoftBank Group, a key investor in chips and AI, rose 5.1%, while chip equipment maker Advantest gained 2.2%. In related news, the European Union is reportedly considering a bold plan to require Chinese companies to share their technology with European firms in exchange for local market access. Domestically, there is ongoing political uncertainty in Japan, with leaders of the main opposition parties meeting on Wednesday to discuss uniting behind a single candidate for the position of Prime Minister. Chinese CPI Underwhelms China's consumer prices continued to fall in September 2025, recording a year-over-year drop of 0.3%, which was slightly less severe than the previous month but worse than what analysts had expected. The main reason for the overall price decline was a steep drop in food prices, which fell at their fastest rate since January 2024. This was largely driven by an oversupply of pork, lower production costs, and weak consumer demand ahead of the Golden Week holidays. In contrast to food, prices for goods and services excluding food and energy (known as core inflation) actually rose by 1.0% year-over-year. This was the highest core inflation reading in 19 months, suggesting that underlying consumer demand is slowly starting to pick up, possibly due to government incentives encouraging people to trade in old consumer goods. Categories like healthcare and clothing saw price increases, and the cost of transportation fell at a slower pace than before. On a month-to-month basis, prices barely moved, increasing just 0.1%. Even though the current economic data suggests the central bank of China (People's Bank of China) should lower interest rates or take other steps to boost the economy (monetary easing), it might decide to wait. The bank could be saving those options in case the planned meeting between President Xi and President Trump does not go well, allowing them to use the easing measures as an emergency economic boost afterward. European Session - Luxury Sector Boosts European Stocks European stock markets climbed on Wednesday, largely driven by a massive rally in luxury brands after French giant LVMH delivered surprisingly positive sales results, calming fears about the health of major companies amidst global trade and growth concerns. Luxury group LVMH saw its shares soar over 12%, heading for their best daily performance in almost two years after reporting better-than-expected sales in the third quarter, fueled by stronger demand in China. This good news immediately boosted other luxury stocks, with companies like Hermes and Richemont seeing gains between 2.7% and 7.2%. This surge caused the French stock index to jump 2.5%, while the broader STOXX 600 index for all of Europe rose 0.8%. Adding to the positive mood, chip-equipment supplier ASML rose 3.5% after its forecasts for quarterly orders and sales beat market expectations. However, not all stocks did well: German copper producer Aurubis fell 7.1% because its majority owner, Salzgitter, launched a large bond that can be exchanged for Aurubis shares, which often puts downward pressure on a stock's price. On the FX front, The US dollar remained mostly unchanged early on Wednesday, stabilizing after a slight drop in the previous session. The dollar was steady against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, holding its value after losing ground to both currencies on Tuesday. The euro also held firm at 1.1606 following its own small gain yesterday. Among commodity-linked currencies, the Australian dollar ticked up slightly by 0.1%, attempting to recover after hitting its lowest point since late August on Tuesday. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar continued its slight decline, easing another 0.1% after falling to a six-month low yesterday. Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped slightly on Wednesday, continuing a downward trend, as worries about too much supply in the global market overshadowed demand concerns tied to the US-China trade conflict. The main pressure came from a warning issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA stated that the global oil market could see a large supply surplus—as much as 4 million bpd next year. This is a bigger excess than previously expected, caused by oil-producing nations (OPEC+ and rivals) increasing their output while global demand remains slow. Both major oil benchmarks, Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), saw small dips, with Brent trading at $62.30 per barrel. Both contracts had already hit five-month lows in the previous trading session. Gold prices surged again on Wednesday, climbing to a new all-time high just above the $4,200 per ounce mark. Renewed concerns about the trade conflict between the U.S. and China has given haven demand a fresh boost. For more on the movement of Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the Day Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet before market participants' attention turns to US Earnings data and a host of Central Bank speakers who will take the spotlight. Lastly, attention will be on the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book," a key report that gathers informal information on the US economy across its regions, because it strongly influences the Fed's decisions on interest rates. The Beige Book may carry more weight at the moment given the US government shutdown and lack of data available, especially labor data. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 did rise toward the resistance level around 9500. However, the index failed to break higher and is experiencing a pullback this morning. The bullish structure will remain intact as long as the FTSE 100 is able to hold above the swing low at 9412 and the 100-day MA resting at 9406. A hold above this key confluence zone could be the start of the next leg higher. A break of this zone though open up the Index to further downside. Immediate resistance rests around the 9500 handle before the swing high at 9590 comes into focus. On the downside, support rests at 9406 before the 9357 and 9311 handles become areas of interest. FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, October 15. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
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Bitcoin Retests STH Cost Basis Again: Is This Where Support Flips?
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Bitcoin has faced another retrace in the past day that has brought its price to the short-term holder cost basis, a level that has acted as support thus far. Bitcoin Is Making Yet Another Retest Of The STH Realized Price As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, Bitcoin could be at the fourth step of the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price cycle. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that measures the average cost basis of the investors on the BTC network. When the value of this metric is greater than the spot price, it means the overall market is carrying a net unrealized loss. On the other hand, it being below BTC’s value suggests the average holder is in the green. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a specific segment of investors is of interest: the STHs. These are the BTC holders who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This group is considered to include the fickle-minded bunch of the sector, prone to making panic moves during volatile periods. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price of the STHs over the last couple of months: As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin has made a few retests of the STH Realized Price during the last few weeks and each time, the level has held so far. The reason behind the indicator acting as support lies in how investor psychology tends to work. As the analyst has broken down in the chart, STHs typically follow a five-step cycle during bullish phases. The first three steps involve some degree of buying from the group upon retests of their cost basis from above. These holders consider the retraces to their break-even level as dip-buying opportunities. By the fourth retest, however, they can become exhausted, and may decide to stop their accumulation. This is when the level stops providing support to the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s visible that the latest retrace in Bitcoin has once again brought its value near the STH Realized Price. Given that this is the fourth retest, Maartunn has noted that this could potentially be the fourth step in the STH cycle. It will now be interesting to see how the asset’s price develops in the coming days. A sustained move below the level may confirm a breakdown of support and lead to the fifth and final step of the STH cycle, where these investors start looking at their break-even level as an opportunity to exit the market instead, thus turning what was once support into resistance. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped to $110,000 earlier in the day, but the coin has since bounced back to $113,000. -
Hyperliquid Holders Left In The Dark: Monad Protocol Faces Scrutiny Over MON Airdrop
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Layer-1 (L1) blockchain Monad has recently opened a portal for users to claim the airdrop for its native MON token, with the claiming period set to end on November 3. However, the announcement has sparked significant criticism within the crypto community. Many users, particularly those on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), have voiced concerns that the criteria for eligibility have not aligned with the developments, leaving several traders, including those from Hyperliquid (HYPE), ineligible for the airdrop. Hyperliquid And HypurrNFT Users Left In The Lurch At the time of the announcement, it was stated that users of Hyperliquid, Phantom perps, and holders of HypurrNFT would be eligible to receive the MON airdrop. Despite this, reports indicate that very few HypurrNFT holders qualify, with some users claiming that their substantial trading volumes—over 200 million on perps—did not meet the eligibility requirements. These frustrations have led to comments such as, “this airdrop is a joke,” highlighting the disconnect between the expectations set by Monad and the reality faced by its community. According to the outlined criteria, Monad plans to distribute tokens to over 235,500 users, including active community members who have consistently supported the project on social media and engaged in various initiatives. The criteria also encompass traders with high trading volumes on decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid, long-term holders of popular NFTs (such as CryptoPunks and Pudgy Penguins), participants in DAO voting on Ethereum-based platforms, contributors to ecosystem development through various roles, and developers actively creating products on Monad and participating in project hackathons. Critics Question Monad’s Commitment To Users Critics, including DeFi researcher Coin Metrika, have sharply criticized Monad’s airdrop strategy. Metrika pointed out that the published eligibility criteria shocked many within the crypto community, revealing that only 5,500 wallets are considered eligible—representing just 0.74% of Monad’s Discord users. Meanwhile, the project is distributing airdrops to 225,000 addresses outside of its community, many of whom may not even be aware of Monad or the impending claim deadline. In a sarcastic commentary, Coin Metrika summarized the situation, stating: If you haven’t figured it out yet, here’s a summary of #MonadAirdrop criteria: You have roles in Discord that are difficult to obtain—thank you, we’re not interested in you because you’re poor! You participated in our testnet—thank you for helping us test the product for free, which we sold to investors for a lot of money. Dressed up in clown costumes and shot viral videos to promote the @monad brand—thank you, we laughed out loud at you. You have money that you’ve shown on the blockchain—let’s be friends, here’s your airdrop! This highlights the increasing dissatisfaction within the Hyperliquid, HypurrNFT and wider crypto communities regarding how Monad has handled its airdrop initiative, raising questions about its commitment to its users. At the time of writing, HYPE trades at $39, recording losses of 13% over the past seven days. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com -
Stock market on October 15: S&P 500 and NASDAQ rebound
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Yesterday, US stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 declined by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.76%. The industrial Dow Jones rose by 0.44%. Equity indices advanced and the dollar weakened as optimism around a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve revived risk appetite and outweighed renewed US-China trade tensions. Markets recovered much of the previous week's losses as traders focused on the prospect of a more dovish monetary policy signaled by the Fed, while largely ignoring continued reports of difficulties in US-China trade negotiations. A growing conviction of an inevitable Fed rate cut exerted pressure on US Treasury yields, making the dollar less attractive to investors. This, in turn, supported asset prices denominated in other currencies and triggered a rally in equity markets. However, lingering uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations continues to have a dampening effect on investor sentiment. Further escalation of the trade war could offset the positive impact of a Fed rate cut and once again redirect capital into safe-haven assets such as gold and Treasuries. Asian stocks jumped 1.9%, marking the largest intraday gain in over two months, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's concerns about labor market weakness bolstered expectations of a rate cut in October. The yield on two-year US Treasury notes remained near its lowest levels since 2022. Gold reached a new peak. Powell signaled that the US central bank intends to cut interest rates by another quarter point at the end of this month, despite the government shutdown significantly reducing the Fed's capacity to forecast economic trends. Swap contracts are pricing in a total rate cut of approximately 1.25 percentage points by the end of next year, compared to the current range of 4-4.25%. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jameson Greer stated that escalating tensions with China over export controls are expected to ease following negotiations between officials from both nations. Trump also expressed cautious optimism about the possibility of a positive outcome. "We have a fair relationship with China, and I think it'll be fine. And if it's not, that's okay too," Trump told reporters Tuesday at the White House. "We're taking a lot of hits, but we've made great progress." As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the key objective for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,672. This would support further price appreciation and open the path toward a push to the next level at $6,682. No less important for bulls will be maintaining control above the $6,697 mark, which would strengthen buyer positioning. In the event of a downside move amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,660. A break below this level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,648 and open the way to $6,638. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
[XPD/USD] – [Wednesday, October 15, 2025] With the condition of technical indicators which showing a bullish momentum for XPD/USD, such as both EMAs forming a Golden Cross and the RSI positioned in the Neutral-Bullish zone. This suggests that XPD/USD has the potential to strengthen today. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 1649.30 2. Resistance. 1 : 1605.71 3. Pivot : 1539.32 4. Support. 1 : 1495.73 5. Support. 2 : 1429.34 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If Palladium strengthens above 1539.32, it may continue its rally toward 1605.71. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1605.71 is successfully broken, there is potential for XPD/USD to test the 1649.30 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if XPD/USD falls and closes below 1429.34. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 1545.45 EMA(200): 1486.42 RSI(14) : 57.55 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the only economic release from the United States is the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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[Platinum] – [Wednesday, October 15, 2025] Even though the intersection of the Golden Cross of the two EMA(50) & (200) is relatively narrow, but with the RSI in the Neutral-Bullish zone suggests that buyers are still dominant in Platinum. Key Levels: Level-Level Kunci 1. Resistance. 2 : 1743.0 2. Resistance. 1 : 1704.0 3. Pivot : 1672.5 4. Support. 1 : 1633.5 5. Support. 2 : 1602.0 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If Platinum breaks and closes above 1704.0, it may move to test 1743.0. Momentum Extension Bias: If Platinum successfully breaks and closes above 1743.0, there is potential for it to reach 1774.5. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if Platinum falls and closes below 1602.0. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 1674.9 EMA(200): 1670.1 RSI(14) : 55.03 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the only economic release from the United States is the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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The storm in the U.S. equity market shows no signs of calming. The S&P 500 opened with a gap for the second consecutive trading session—this time to the downside—following news of an escalation in the trade conflict. Beijing effectively barred Chinese companies from doing business with the U.S. subsidiary of South Korean shipbuilding giant Hanwha Ocean. Yet upbeat corporate earnings and dovish comments from Jerome Powell helped the broad market index ride the volatility rollercoaster and rebound. Financial results from major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, exceeded expectations, while BlackRock announced that assets under management surpassed $13 trillion for the first time in history. According to FactSet, third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise by 8%. The actual figures could come closer to 13%. Historically, earnings have beaten estimates in three out of every four quarters, which has been a strong support for the U.S. stock market. On the other hand, the S&P 500 bull market has now stretched into its fourth year, and the index hasn't experienced at least a 5% pullback in 97 trading sessions. The long-term average for such streaks is just 59 days. This raises the question: Is it time for a correction? Chart: S&P 500 Streaks Without 5% Drawdowns A return of trade war tensions could be the trigger. Beijing is playing hardball—it seems to have found Donald Trump's Achilles' heel: his unwillingness to see stock indices decline. The president views them as a personal success metric. After the market closed, he announced 100% tariffs, only to reassure the public on social media shortly afterward with posts like "Everything will be fine with China" and "The United States doesn't want to hurt China; we want to help!" Markets react quickly to messages from the White House and continue to buy S&P 500 dips under the TACO strategy. But China may well believe that Trump will eventually yield. If not, the standoff could escalate into a full-blown trade war, triggering a meaningful correction in the S&P 500 and weighing down both the U.S. and global economies. The Fed would then be left with no choice but to cut rates aggressively. Jerome Powell gave no concrete indication that another round of monetary easing would occur in October. However, he did note that a continued slowdown in job growth would eventually lead to higher unemployment. Despite another round of blows traded between Beijing and Washington, the S&P 500 managed to edge upward, though it retreated slightly as the trade tension news settled. China halted soybean purchases from the U.S., and in return, the U.S. will stop buying vegetable oil from Chinese exporters. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 on the daily chart has twice tested an inside bar pattern. Bulls have yet to close a session above fair value at the 6655 level. A breakout above the large-bar high at 6680 would be a buying signal. On the other hand, a failure to reclaim the 6655 resistance would increase the likelihood of a correction and raise the case for entering short positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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As Bitcoin (BTC) tries to recover from its weekend sell-off that saw it almost crash to $100,000, some crypto analysts think that the BTC market likely “lost its pulse.” As a result, the leading cryptocurrency may be on the cusp of losing its bullish momentum. Bitcoin At The Risk Of Losing Momentum? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor TeddyVision, Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has been trending lower, confirming that inter-exchange activity is slowly fading. For the uninitiated, the IFP measures liquidity as it moves between crypto exchanges. In essence, it can be considered a proxy to determine how active arbitrage and market-making really are. To explain, arbitrage refers to the practice of buying an asset for a lower price on one platform and selling it at a higher price on another, thus benefiting from the price differential. In simple terms, arbitrage refers to profiting from inefficiencies. When such inefficiencies exist in the market and are actually executable, liquidity tends to start moving fast. At the same time, trading bots begin shuttling funds across platforms, market spreads begin to realign again, and the market starts to feel “alive.” This is when the IFP rises. Although there is greater market volatility due to a rising IFP, it is generally considered healthy for the market as it confirms that BTC is likely experiencing a bullish momentum. However, since the IFP reading has turned lower in recent weeks, traders are finding it harder to arbitrage price discrepancies even though they might still be appearing. TeddyVision noted: Price discrepancies still appear, but they’re harder to arbitrage – liquidity is thinner, latency is higher, and risk-adjusted opportunities are drying up. Traders find fewer setups worth taking, and less capital circulates between venues. The analyst emphasized that liquidity is not leaving the market, it is just not circulating like earlier. While such a slowdown in liquidity does not crash the market, it does drain the energy out of it. To conclude, the market is not collapsing, it is just “too efficient” at the moment for traders to find any meaningful arbitrage opportunities that they can benefit from. When inefficiencies leave the market, the underlying asset is likely at risk of losing its momentum. A Healthy Correction For BTC? The market crash on October 9 led to the largest single-day liquidation ever in the history of the crypto industry, totalling a mammoth $19 billion. While the overall optimism has receded, some analysts are still hopeful of a quick sentiment turnaround. Fellow crypto analyst EtherNasyonaL stated that BTC has maintained its upward trajectory despite the recent market crash, and that a move to a new all-time high (ATH) may be on the horizon. At press time, BTC trades at $111,731, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours.
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Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese YenThe 151.89 level test occurred when the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the U.S. dollar, which resulted in a 25-pip drop in the pair. The Japanese yen resumed its upward movement against the dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced plans for a 25-basis-point rate cut. His statement acted as a catalyst for currency markets, triggering a reassessment of risk and outlooks for both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Investors shifted their focus back to the yen—a traditional safe-haven currency. Despite the release of weak industrial production data in Japan, the yen continued to strengthen against the dollar. In the medium term, the future direction of the pair will depend on multiple factors, including policy decisions from both the Fed and the Bank of Japan, geopolitical developments, and global economic conditions. However, the course toward yen strength is likely to hold for now. As for today's intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair reaches the 151.30 entry level (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 151.80 (thicker green line). Around 151.80, I plan to exit long positions and enter short positions on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from that level. It is best to return to long trades on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair tests the 150.97 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the downside potential and could lead to an upward reversal, with expected growth toward 151.30 and 151.80. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 150.97 (thin red line on the chart), which may lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be the 150.43 level (thicker red line), where I plan to exit short positions and consider direct long entries on a bounce, targeting a 20–25 pip reversal. It is optimal to sell from as high a level as possible. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 151.30 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would cap the pair's upside potential and could lead to a downward reversal, with anticipated movement toward 150.97 and 150.43. Chart NotesThin green line: Entry level for buy positionsThick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long positionThin red line: Entry level for sell positionsThick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short positionMACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timingImportant for Beginners Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place. And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Trade Review and Advice for Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3284 level coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's bullish potential. The second test of this level occurred while MACD was in the overbought zone, triggering the implementation of Sell Scenario No. 2. However, the anticipated decline in the pair did not materialize. The pound surged sharply on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the U.S. central bank plans to lower the key interest rate by 0.25% at the end of the month. The market reacted instantly with widespread buying of the British currency, as investors interpreted Powell's comments as a signal of U.S. economic weakness and, consequently, decreased attractiveness of the dollar. His announcement came as a surprise to many analysts who had expected a more cautious Fed stance, especially given the absence of new U.S. labor market data. Powell justified the need to cut rates based on continued risks tied to economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and fears of a rising unemployment rate. No economic data is scheduled for release from the UK today. However, speeches are expected from Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England responsible for markets and banking, and Sarah Breeden, a member of the Financial Policy Committee. Sir David's speech is of particular interest. He is expected to provide an updated assessment of the health of the UK banking system and detail the BoE's efforts to support financial stability. Sarah Breeden, representing the Financial Policy Committee, will likely focus on broader macroeconomic threats. Her comments on the state of the economy and inflation outlook will be closely studied, as the committee plays a key role in formulating the UK's macroprudential policy. As for today's intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point at 1.3367 (thin green line on the chart) is reached, with a target at 1.3416 (thick green line). Around 1.3416, I will close long positions and consider opening short positions on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips. This buying strategy should only be applied if the BoE assumes a hawkish tone. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3342 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside and may lead to a reversal upward. A price move toward 1.3367 and 1.3416 should be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today if the market breaks below 1.3342 (thin red line on the chart), triggering a quick drop. The primary target would be 1.3304 (thick red line). I plan to exit short positions there and consider immediate long entries on a bounce from the level, with an expected pullback of 20–25 pips. Pound sellers are likely to trade cautiously. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3367 level while MACD is in the overbought zone. This would signal limited upside potential and may lead to a downward reversal toward 1.3342 and 1.3304. Chart NotesThin green line: Entry level for buy positionsThick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long positionThin red line: Entry level for sell positionsThick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short positionMACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timingImportant for Beginners Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place. And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Trade Review and Trading Advice for the EuroThe test of the 1.1565 price level occurred when the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair climbed toward the target level at 1.1599. Following comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating a planned 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the month, the U.S. dollar experienced a sharp decline. The announcement triggered a broad sell-off in the greenback across global markets, as investors reassessed their expectations for future Fed policy. Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy remains stable but noted that risks related to the labor market call for vigilance and may warrant further easing. This morning, market participants await the French Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Eurozone industrial production data for August. The French CPI, a key measure of inflation, will show how effectively the country is managing price growth. Readings above forecasts may signal stronger inflationary pressure, reinforcing the ECB's cautious policy stance. The Eurozone's industrial production data will also be important, as it reflects the health of the manufacturing sector—a key component of economic growth. A decline may suggest growth is slowing and could put pressure on the euro. For today's intraday strategy, I will focus on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches 1.1630 (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1663. Upon reaching 1.1663 (thick green line), I will exit the market and consider selling the euro on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from the entry point. A long position is justified only if the incoming data is positive. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1615 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and could lead to an upward reversal toward the 1.1630 and 1.1663 targets. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the euro if the price reaches 1.1615 (thin red line on the chart), aiming for a decline toward 1.1588. At that level (thick red line), I will exit the short position and potentially buy on a bounce, expecting a 20–25 pip rebound. Market pressure on the pair is unlikely to persist today. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1630 level (buy entry level) and the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and could result in a reversal down to 1.1615 and possibly 1.1588. Chart NotesThin green line: Entry level for buy positionsThick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long positionThin red line: Entry level for sell positionsThick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short positionMACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timingImportant for Beginners Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place. And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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What just happened to the FET price? Traders woke up to another shock in the AI crypto sector, as Fetch.ai’s FET token, now part of the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (ASI), collapsed from $0.37 to $0.3, marking one of its sharpest drops since the crash on October 10, 2025. The decline follows Ocean Protocol’s sudden exit from the alliance on October 9, 2025, shaking investor confidence in the decentralised AI merger between Fetch.ai, SingularityNET, and Ocean. Combined with broader market liquidations and the rise of Bittensor (TAO), investors are questioning whether the ASI vision can survive, or if TAO is becoming the new AI king. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time What Triggered the FET Price Dump? Both fundamental shocks and technical breakdowns fueled the FET price dump. After Ocean Protocol withdrew from the ASI alliance, the project lost a critical decentralised data partner, unravelling nearly a year of collaboration. This triggered a cascade of sell-offs as traders interpreted the move as a blow to ASI’s long-term roadmap. Learn more has surged into the spotlight as the strongest decentralised AI contender of 2025. Trading near $465 with a $4.4 billion market cap, TAO has quadrupled ASI’s combined value and continues to attract institutional and retail interest. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Its upcoming halving event on December 12, 2025, will cut issuance from 7,200 TAO to 3,600 per day, reducing annual inflation from 8% to 4%, a move analysts expect to push TAO toward $1,000 by year-end. (Source – bittensorhalving) What truly separates TAO is its subnet ecosystem, which allows independent AI projects to launch scalable networks for GPU compute, trading models, drug discovery, and code generation. This modular design, paired with strong demand for decentralised compute, positions TAO as a utility-driven rival to ASI’s fragmented merger structure. Community sentiment reflects this divergence,” while FET holders are frustrated by repeated dips, TAO holders are calling it ‘the Bitcoin of AI”. So, is Bittensor stealing the show? Not officially, but by every performance metric, it’s leading the decentralised AI narrative while FET and the ASI alliance try to regain balance. If FET’s tokenomics reset and TAO’s halving fuel further momentum, the AI crypto race could define the next phase of altcoin season. DISCOVER: 16+ New and Upcoming Binance Listings in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways FET price breakdown amid Ocean protocol leaving ASI. Is TAO the new kid on the AI block? The post Why Did FET Price Just Dump: Is Bittensor Crypto Stealing The Show From Artificial Superintelligence Alliance? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.