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The Bitcoin short-term holder balance has often shown shifts near market tops and bottoms. Here’s what the metric’s trend is signaling right now. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Balance Hasn’t Seen Any Major Shifts Recently In a new post on X, institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock) has shared a chart that shows how the holdings of the different Bitcoin investor groups has changed over the years. The cohorts in question have been divided on the basis of holding time. The analytics firm classifies investors into three groups: traders, cruisers, and hodlers. The traders include the holders who have been carrying their coins for less than a month. This group corresponds to the new entrants in the sector and the investors who participate in high frequency trades. The cruisers are investors who are no longer that short-term minded, but they also haven’t built up enough resilience to be in it for the long-term yet. Cruisers who manage to hold past the one year mark become part of the diamond hands of the network: the hodlers. Now, below is the chart for the net change in the supply held by these three Bitcoin groups. As displayed in the above graph, these cohorts have historically shown a certain pattern near inflection points in the asset. “Fluctuations in short-term holder balances often signal market turning points,” notes the analytics firm. During major tops and bottoms, the traders generally register a sharp spike in their balance, as cruisers and hodlers take part in profit realization or capitulation. Whenever these older groups sell, the age of their coins resets back to zero and they are put into the supply of the traders. From the chart, it’s apparent that while Bitcoin has observed a sharp rally to new all-time highs (ATHs) recently, there still hasn’t been any big changes in the supplies of the traders. “Interestingly, we’re not seeing major shifts at the moment,” says Sentora. It now remains to be seen whether this means that the current rally still has room to grow. In some other news, the cryptocurrency has seen an uptick in on-chain transaction activity, as the analytics firm has pointed out in another X post. The weekly Bitcoin transaction volume reached almost $700 billion last week, the highest level since 2022. Though, while this does indicate activity is as high as it’s ever been in this cycle, it’s still muted when compared to the highs of the 2021 bull run. BTC Price Bitcoin is still stuck in sideways movement as its price is trading around $119,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the cusp of another rally, as leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance saw its spot volume rise from around 40% on July 15 to as high as 60% on July 18. Historical data suggests that surges in Binance’s spot market share have frequently preceded upward movements in BTC’s price. Bitcoin Rally Imminent? Binance Data Suggests So According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Amr Taha, Binance’s spot volume market share surging to 58% on July 23, has further strengthened the premier cryptocurrency’s $117,000 support. This marks the second notable spike in Binance’s spot market dominance this month. On July 18, Binance’s share surged to 60%, coinciding with Bitcoin holding above the critical $117,000 mark on the daily chart. Since then, the $117,000 level has served as a reliable support zone, likely buoyed by Binance’s deep liquidity and high execution reliability. Price stability at this level has been observed multiple times since the initial breakout. In addition to this, Bitcoin’s price has shown strong resilience around the Realized Price of the 1-day to 1-week Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Age Band, which is currently near $118,300. For context, UTXO age bands classify Bitcoin held in wallets based on how long it has remained unspent, offering insight into investor behavior. Shorter bands – 1 day to 1 week – typically reflect activity by newer or speculative holders, while longer bands – 6 months to 5 years – are associated with long-term holders with stronger conviction. Taha explained: Historically, this metric acts as a dynamic support level, indicating that newer holders are not capitulating and that the average on-chain cost basis of recent buyers is being respected by the market. Meanwhile, fellow crypto analyst Titan of Crypto took to X to highlight BTC following the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. In an X post, the analyst shared the following weekly chart, adding that BTC is on track to hit a target of $144,000. Will BTC Hit $180,000 By Year End? Bitcoin’s recent all-time high (ATH) of $123,218 has reignited speculation around even higher price targets before year’s end. According to CryptoQuant analyst Chairman Lee, BTC remains on track to reach $180,000 by the end of 2025. Recent on-chain metrics support this bullish outlook. Notably, the Bitcoin IFP indicator suggests that major holders continue to hold BTC despite its proximity to record highs – unlike in previous cycles, where exchange inflows typically preceded significant corrections. However, not all indicators point upward. Exchange reserves recently reached their highest levels since June 25, raising concerns about potential sell pressure. At press time, BTC is trading at $119,097, up 0.6% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin continues to trade below its record high set earlier this month, hovering above the $119,000 mark. While price action over the past week has shown only a modest 0.3% gain, analysts suggest the market may be nearing a turning point. The sideways movement in price has not deterred the broader bullish outlook, but on-chain indicators now suggest caution may be warranted. One such indicator comes from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributor Arab Chain, who flagged potential overheating in Bitcoin’s current market structure. Bitcoin Bullish Trend Persists, but Signs Point to Caution In a recent post, the analyst highlighted the behavior of the Bull and Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which now sits in a zone typically associated with strong bullish trends. However, its proximity to the so-called “overheated bull” range has raised concerns about a possible correction on the horizon. The indicator’s historical pattern suggests this zone often precedes a price cooldown, leading investors to consider profit-taking strategies. Arab Chain noted that despite the bullish structure, the indicator’s advance toward overheated territory could prompt speculators to close positions. “The proximity of overheated zones suggests that this is not the right time for a major purchase,” the analyst explained. The insight reflects the broader sentiment that market participants may opt for a wait-and-see approach, anticipating a more favorable re-entry after a correction. Additionally, while the 30-day to 365-day moving averages still support a continued uptrend, they may also signal that a short-term top is forming unless disrupted by new market catalysts. Retail Interest Remains Muted as Institutional Demand Grows Supporting this view, another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, emphasized the role of institutional activity in driving the current cycle. Kesmeci explained that retail investors have reduced their exposure to Bitcoin since early 2023, while large investors have increased their holdings, particularly from early 2024 onward. “This time, the source of the Bitcoin rally is not retail — the big players are in the driver’s seat,” he wrote. This accumulation by high-volume wallets, likely linked to institutions or ETFs, highlights a shift from previous cycles dominated by retail behavior. Kesmeci further pointed to Google Trends data showing that search interest in “Bitcoin” remains subdued compared to previous bull runs. The absence of widespread retail excitement contrasts with the intense public engagement seen during Bitcoin’s surge in 2021. According to Kesmeci, the quiet phase may indicate that retail has not yet entered the market en masse — a stage that historically signals the final leg of a bull cycle. “The crowd has not awakened yet,” he noted, adding that “smart money is currently on stage — and most people are still watching from the sidelines.” Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun has made the headlines again after its recently launched token, PUMP, plummeted to new lows. The nosedive follows a recent update on the token’s highly anticipated airdrop and its legal troubles. PUMP Token Loses $1 Billion MC Just over a week after launch, Pump.fun’s official token has hit a new all-time low (ATL), reaching the $0.0028 area and dropping below the $1 billion market capitalization for the first time since its initial Coin Offering (ICO). Pump.fun was launched in January 2024 to facilitate and simplify the deployment of tokens. The Solana-based platform quickly became the leading memecoin launchpad in the crypto market, fueling this cycle’s memecoin frenzy. According to Dune data, the launchpad has deployed nearly 12 million tokens over the last 18 months and generated a Total Revenue of over $775 million. After announcing its official token in early June, the platform’s PUMP rollout had a bumpy road, as its official X account was suspended mid-month. The token’s public sale was also pushed nearly three weeks from its original June 25 date. Nonetheless, Pump.fun recorded a highly successful sale two weeks ago, raising $600 million in just 12 minutes. Two days after its launch, PUMP surged around 70% from its ICO price, reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $0.0068 on July 16. Since then, investors have seen a 57.9% price drop, with 25% of its decline occurring in the past 24 hours. The violent correction has been partially fueled by the recent update of PUMP’s upcoming airdrop. In the token announcement, Pump.fun stated that an airdrop was “coming soon,” but didn’t offer further details. On Wednesday night, the platform’s co-founder, Alon Cohen, confirmed that there will be a token airdrop but revealed it “is not going to take place in the near future,” which ignited massive backlash from the community and sent the token into its current nosedive. Community Slams Pump.fun Team Several X users have expressed their concerns and discontent with Pump.fun’s team, with some claiming that it is “easily one of the worst charts out right now” as “PUMP is trading like the devs already gave up.” Another user stated that “the way PUMP is performing post-TGE is 100% on the team. Only in crypto you can sell a ‘utility coin’ for $1.3B in cash and a week later no one still has a clue what those utilities even are lol.” Some community members remain hopeful that the cryptocurrency will reverse. Market watcher Bren Trades considers that “The crowd is grave dancing on PUMP. Just like they did with PENGU And we saw how that played out.” He noted that “If you’ve been here for a while, you know these post-launch dump outs are commonplace.” Meanwhile, crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa wrote on X that “joking aside, I actually do think that PUMP bottoms relatively soon. I am expecting some sort of giga crime pump eventually.” Legal Drama Intensifies In January, Burwick Law filed a class-action lawsuit against the platform, alleging it acted as an unregistered securities exchange. According to the original complaint, users have suffered massive losses due to their tokens’ price plunging after the hype died down. On Wednesday, the law firm filed an amended lawsuit in the Southern District of New York against the platform and some of its Solana partners, including Solana Labs, the Solana Foundation, Jito Labs, and the Jito Foundation. The new complaint escalates the extent of the allegations, claiming that the defendants have extracted over $5.5 billion from customers through schemes, and seeking rescission of Pump.fun transactions and compensatory damages. As of this writing, PUMP is trading at $0.0028, a 26.6% decline in the daily timeframe.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below the $120,000 mark, exhibiting restrained momentum despite previous rallies that pushed it to all-time highs above $123,000. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has fluctuated between a low of $117,422 and a high of $119,197, ultimately trading at $118,578 at the time of writing. While price movement has remained relatively stable, on-chain indicators suggest that broader market sentiment is still in a transitional phase, with neither excessive enthusiasm nor panic selling present among investors. Bitcoin Market Signals Suggest Ongoing Expansion Phase A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlights a key development in the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI), a composite tool used to track phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle. According to Gaah, the IBCI has returned to the “Distribution” zone, an area historically associated with the late stages of a bull market. However, this return is moderate, as the index has reached only 80% of the zone’s upper boundary, falling short of the full saturation levels typically observed at major market peaks. The IBCI’s moderate level indicates that Bitcoin is in an expansionary stage, but without the typical signs of overheating. Gaah noted that two critical components of the IBCI, the Puell Multiple and the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), remain below their midpoint levels. This suggests that short-term speculation and aggressive profit-taking, often seen in late-stage bull markets, have not yet fully emerged in the current cycle. As a result, while caution may be warranted, the broader trend does not yet resemble a typical market top. The Puell Multiple, in particular, continues to hover near the “Discount” range, indicating that miner profitability remains moderate even with Bitcoin’s recent all-time high. This points to a valuation structure where network participants have not yet entered the excess phase that typically precedes a market correction. Gaah emphasized that the current state of the IBCI reflects underlying market strength supported by fundamentals, not speculative fervor. However, he also warned that the market is in a high-risk correction zone in the short term and should be monitored closely for shifts in retail behavior and miner activity. Short-Term Holders Offer Support Around Realized Price Adding to the discussion, another CryptoQuant analyst, Amr Taha, observed that Bitcoin has maintained price stability near the realized price of the UTXO Age Band for 1-day to 1-week holders, currently around $118,300. This metric is often interpreted as a dynamic support level that reflects the average cost basis for recent buyers. According to Taha, the absence of capitulation among newer holders implies that recent market entrants remain confident, reinforcing the current price range as a psychological and technical support zone. Together, these insights suggest that while Bitcoin may face near-term volatility, broader indicators do not yet reflect an overheated market. Instead, current metrics imply a market that continues to expand at a measured pace, with room for potential upside if fundamentals remain intact. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Jack Mallers, founder of Strike, argued in a video shared on X that a structurally higher Bitcoin price is emerging as a necessary component of US fiscal management, linking the growth of stablecoins to demand for US government debt. Framing the newly introduced GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation as “a seminal moment for digital assets and global dollar dominance,” Mallers said that while the bill “has nothing to do with Bitcoin directly,” it is indirectly significant because stablecoin expansion and Bitcoin appreciation are, in his view, intertwined. Bitcoin And Gold Must Rise To Avert US Fiscal Crisis Displaying a chart of Tether’s market capitalization alongside Bitcoin’s price, Mallers told viewers: “In the green, what you’re looking at is Tether, Market Cap. And in the orange, what you’re looking at is Bitcoin… The currency pair that does the most volume against this asset class is USDT, is Tether… If you want stablecoins to grow, Bitcoin grows.” He then connected that relationship to federal financing: stablecoin issuers, especially Tether, hold large amounts of US Treasuries; therefore, a larger stablecoin float would translate into incremental structural demand for US debt. Mallers described the United States as fiscally “trapped,” asserting: “We know that the US cannot raise rates and they cannot cut spending. So we are trapped. The next logical step is we then need to devalue the dollar. It’s the only way out.” The policy question, he continued, is what assets the dollar should be allowed to depreciate against. “Do not debase the dollar against housing… Don’t debase the dollar against eggs… My recommendation, debase it against Bitcoin and gold.” Projecting a scenario in which Bitcoin reaches $500,000—“That’s 5x from here”—Mallers claimed such a move would force stablecoin capitalization to “5x,” producing “five times the amount of demand for US debt” at a moment when, he said, traditional foreign and domestic buyers are fatigued: “China doesn’t want your debt… Hedge funds don’t want your debt. Who’s the buyer of last resort? The Fed.” He likened the prospective alignment of Treasury financing needs, Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion, and stablecoin reserve composition to a previous historical episode: “The last time the Fed and the US government got married… was to help finance around the world wars. And the Fed’s balance sheet grew 10 times… largely in… T-bills, the things that stablecoins buy.” With US debt-to-GDP “at 130%,” Mallers argued, reduction in real terms requires monetary debasement channeled into politically acceptable asset inflation. He extended the narrative into politics, highlighting that “The president and his family just bought $2 billion worth of Bitcoin” and policy moves such as opening “US retirement market to crypto investments.” According to Mallers, positioning Bitcoin and gold inside retirement accounts will allow policymakers to “debase the dollar and get reelected,” because Bitcoin holders would not resist the erosion of purchasing power: “Debase the dollar all you want… I don’t care because I own Bitcoin.” He concluded by restating the mechanism he sees emerging from the bill: “Stablecoins are the new way to finance the government, but they grow as Bitcoin grows. One way to grow stablecoins is to grow Bitcoin… One way to solve the Fed and the Treasury’s problem of getting remarried is to grow Bitcoin. It could not be more obvious.” At press time, BTC traded at $118,055.

The cryptocurrency derivatives market has suffered heavy liquidations as altcoins like XRP (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE) have plummeted. Crypto Has Seen Almost $1 Billion In Liquidations During The Past Day According to data from CoinGlass, the cryptocurrency derivatives sector has been shaken up by a wave of liquidations in the last 24 hours. “Liquidation” here refers to the forceful closure that any open contract undergoes when its losses exceed a certain percentage (as defined by the platform). Below is a table that breaks down the numbers related to the latest liquidations in the digital assets market: As displayed, the cryptocurrency sector has seen a whopping $967 million in derivatives contract liquidations over the past day. Out of these, an overwhelming majority of the positions involved were long ones. More specifically, users betting on a bullish outcome took a beating of around $829 million. These mass liquidations have come as assets across the market have witnessed some degree of bearish price action. The likes of XRP and Dogecoin are currently down about 10%. Interestingly, Bitcoin (BTC) hasn’t been affected by this latest sector-wide downturn, suggesting that the decline could be a result of investors rotating capital out of altcoins. Given BTC’s relatively flat action, it’s not surprising to see that the number one cryptocurrency hasn’t been leading in liquidations this time around. From the above heatmap, it’s visible that Ethereum (ETH) has topped the market with a derivatives flush of almost $200 million, while XRP has come second with liquidations of $115 million. Despite the fact that Bitcoin hasn’t actually moved much in the past day, users have still managed to rake up $84 million in liquidations. Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin wrap up the top 5 with figures sitting at $58 million and $56 million, respectively. The mass liquidation event from the past day may be a product of overheated conditions that had already been brewing in the sector. As on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed in its latest weekly report, the Open Interest across the top altcoins has seen a significant increase since the start of July. The “Open Interest” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of futures positions related to an asset that are currently open on all centralized exchanges. As shown in the chart, the metric’s combined value for Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin sat at $26 billion at the start of the month, but it has now grown to $44 billion. Historically, an excess of leverage has often led to volatility for the market, so the latest squeeze could just be this effect in motion. XRP Price At the time of writing, XRP is floating around $3.17, down 4% in the last week.

XRP has entered a period of quiet movement following its rally last week that pushed its price to new all-time highs. Particularly, XRP’s price has hovered between $3.40 and $3.60 over the past few days. This structure has caught the attention of crypto analyst CasiTrades, who shared her detailed outlook on the social media platform X. Her accompanying chart breaks down the ongoing setup and shows the significance of the $3.40 support alongside the bullish implications of XRP’s behavior just beneath the resistance zone. Former Resistance Now Support CasiTrades points to a classic bullish flip taking place in XRP’s chart pattern on the 1-hour candlestick timeframe. A key trendline, which had previously served as overhead resistance, has now been flipped and is acting as support. This shift has played out with precision, as price has tested the trendline three times and each bounce affirms that buyers are stepping in with confidence. According to her analysis, this kind of structural transition might be subtle, but momentum is quietly building up for XRP’s next price move. The trendline, which has now flipped to support, sits just above the $3.40 level, and its resilience has helped XRP avoid any serious breakdowns since last week. As long as this line continues to hold, bulls will remain in control. To sum it up, the analysis shows that XRP is now in an accumulation phase rather than exhaustion, which is notable considering its significant rise earlier in the first half of July. Furthermore, a look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour candlestick timeframe chart shows that there’s still room for momentum to push higher than $3.65 before the end of the month. However, the analyst also acknowledges that nothing is guaranteed. If the $3.40 support gives out, the XRP price could retrace to $3.20, where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level lines up. Other Fibonacci price levels to watch for a rebound are at $2.96, $2.76, $2.56, $2.50, and $2.27. Next Target Lies At $4.65 The trendline’s consistency, combined with the RSI levels, makes a stronger case for a breakout than a breakdown. The road ahead could open up well if XRP can bounce well at $3.40 and finally punch through the $3.60 to $3.66 resistance range. CasiTrades identified $4.65 as the next major level to watch, a target derived from the 2.618 Fibonacci extension of the previous rally. In the meantime, a middle price level to watch is at $4.11 on the path to $4.65. “The volatility above here gets wild and fast,” the analyst said. Once the XRP price clears $3.65, the path to $4.65 becomes much more probable, especially if the wider market sentiment shifts in favor of bullish price action.

TRON (TRX) has experienced a steady upward price movement alongside broader market gains. Over the past week, the asset has climbed over 5%, recently crossing the $0.31 mark and currently trading around $0.3132. This recent performance reflects growing interest in the TRX market, supported by on-chain signals suggesting continued buyer dominance. One of the more notable observations comes from on-chain analyst Maartunn, who shared his latest insights on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform. His focus centers on the Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) metric, a tool that tracks the net difference between market buys and sells. Spot Taker CVD Signals Buyer Dominance According to the analyst, the data currently points to sustained buying pressure, a potentially significant trend for TRX’s near-term trajectory. Maartunn’s post titled “TRON: Spot Taker CVD shows Taker Buy Dominant” explores how cumulative market order activity can provide context for TRX’s current momentum. He explains that Spot Taker CVD is calculated by summing the difference between market buy (taker buy) and market sell (taker sell) volumes over a 90-day period. When the CVD is rising and positive, it suggests a buyer-dominant phase, which often coincides with upward price action. “Currently, the indicator shows that Taker Buy Volume is dominant,” Maartunn wrote. He noted this trend tends to align with price increases, as it reflects more aggressive buying behavior in the market. This buying pressure, according to the analysis, is likely fueled by factors such as increased TRON network usage and recent ecosystem developments, including the debut of the first TRX Treasury Company and continued stablecoin activity on the chain. TRON Network Stability and User Participation Add Context While the CVD trend highlights the market’s appetite for TRX, other indicators help build a broader view. A separate post by CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain highlighted improvements in the TRON network’s stability. According to on-chain data, the network is currently producing around 28,500 blocks per day, with minimal volatility, suggesting a more reliable infrastructure capable of handling high transaction volumes. These developments are supported by technical upgrades, including the Dynamic Energy Model (Proposal #84), enhanced staking yields that reach up to 7.31%, and professional security audits. TRON also recorded more than 780 million transactions in Q2 2025, representing a 37% increase year-over-year. Despite this heavy throughput, the network has maintained consistent block production. Taken together, the sustained taker buy dominance, strong technical performance, and growing user participation indicate that TRON is experiencing both market and infrastructure-driven momentum. If buying pressure continues and network trends hold, TRX could be positioned for further growth in the coming months. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

What appeared to be market anxed for the Alphabet (Google) earnings seems to have a bit more legs to it. Markets have formed some kind of intermediate top in today's session with the mixed US PMIs leading to the Dow retracting off of a retest of its all-time highs, closing the session down about 0.70% The S&P 500 however loved the beat on the Services PMI but still retracted throughout the afternoon session back to negative territory (close to unchanged) The Nasdaq has wicked three times just above its previous ATH (marking highs at 23,294 on its CFD) but the bigger picture still looks like a double top – at least for now. You can track some intraday levels for the key US Indices right here with the details of the PMIs is on the same page. One of the highlights for the day was not the ECB's Rate decision which was kept unchanged but the ongoing visit of Donald Trump at the Federal Reserve's construction site that you can watch live right here – Trump had criticized the $2.5 Billion cost of the renovations and isn't the biggest fan of how the FED takes their decisions so this might be fun to watch. Read More: Silver maintains around 2011 levels – Technical update Commodities, metals and indices haven't really showed any clear picture of the market mood today, with what seems to be some profit taking. Cryptos were also quite mixed. Only Oil and Nat Gas posted a decent up-day and on the reverse, Palladium and Gold got sold off the most for the metals. Daily Cross-Asset performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, July 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum made a decent comeback in the past 24h but is still about $100 from its $3,860 highs. As mentioned earlier, Oil had a decent day and still trading within its range (details of the range right here). European stock indices also got battered a bit after yesterday's euphoric performance from the US-Japan Deal, dragged by Spain's IBEX and France's CAC. A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, July 24 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar actually started to make a comeback (or looking at the charts, retracted a bit off of its lows) which put it back on top of majors – Analysis of the DXY coming up tomorrow. The GBP and CAD actually struggled the most on the session, but the changes are very slight ( Between -0.08% for the Euro and 0.53% for the GBP). Earnings Season: Who is releasing their numbers tomorrow Earnings Calendar for July 25th – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow won't see too much in terms of market-moving earnings. A look at Economic Data releasing in the evening and tomorrow's session To track market-moving events at all times, check out the MarketPulse Economic Calendar The session is not over yet for JPY traders which will await for the Key Tokyo CPI data which tends to be a good overview of the CPI for the whole country – Might relaunch the volatility after consecutive slow days for USDJPY. Except for the Retail Sales in the UK (exp at -0.6%), there isn't too much going on in the US Data – still, watch for some reactions at the Durable Goods order which may be volatile as business prepare for the upcoming tariff deadline. Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin has remained trapped in a tight range between $115K and $120K for the past 10 days, signaling an extended phase of price compression. With bulls unable to push the price above the $120,000 resistance, analysts are increasingly warning that a correction may be imminent. The coming days are expected to be decisive, as both technical and on-chain fundamentals point to a potential surge in volatility. According to data from CryptoQuant, a key long-term metric—the Monthly Cumulative Days Destroyed (CDD) to Yearly CDD ratio—has reached an anomalously high level of 0.25. This is occurring within the $106,000 to $118,000 price range, a zone that has seen heavy long-term holder activity. Historically, similar CDD spikes were observed during the 2014 macro peak and the 2019 corrective phase, both of which marked periods of intense market distribution. This unusual on-chain behavior reflects heightened movement of long-dormant coins, suggesting that experienced holders may be taking profits at current levels. While this doesn’t confirm an immediate trend reversal, it reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s current consolidation is a critical inflection point—one that could either lead to renewed upside or trigger a deeper correction if bulls fail to regain momentum soon. Long-Term Holders Begin Distributing, But Rally Still Intact Top analyst Axel Adler has shared insights highlighting a key shift in Bitcoin market behavior: the sharp rise in the Monthly CDD to Yearly CDD ratio indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to actively move dormant coins back into circulation. Historically, such elevated CDD levels have marked periods of heightened activity from experienced investors, often signaling a distribution phase where profits are realized after prolonged holding. These spikes are significant because they suggest that coins held for years are now re-entering the market. According to Adler, this kind of activity isn’t random—it typically comes from holders with deep market knowledge who recognize potential turning points. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean the rally is over. While it may cap short-term upside and introduce volatility, current macro and institutional trends provide a solid counterbalance. Treasury demand remains strong, and Bitcoin ETF inflows are still flowing steadily, acting as a buffer against excessive downward pressure. This structural support is crucial in maintaining overall bullish momentum, even as some distribution unfolds. Sideways Movement Persists Below $120K Resistance Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate in a tight range, as shown in the 12-hour chart. Price action remains compressed between the $115,724 key support and the $122,077 resistance level. After a strong impulse earlier this month, momentum has clearly cooled, with BTC now oscillating within this horizontal channel for over 10 days. Notably, the price is currently hovering near $118,500—right around the 50-period moving average (blue), which has acted as dynamic support since early July. The 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) moving averages remain well below the current price, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish despite the pause in upward movement. However, volume has steadily declined during this consolidation phase, signaling indecision and a potential lack of conviction among buyers at current levels. A breakout above $122,000 could renew bullish momentum, opening the door for a run toward new highs, while a breakdown below $115,700 would expose BTC to deeper retracement levels, likely targeting the 100 MA near $109,800. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, has disclosed a portion of its investment portfolio, revealing an involvement in cryptocurrencies that extend beyond Bitcoin (BTC). The announcement comes as Tether reports record profits in 2024, which have been used to fund these strategic investments in more than 120 companies across multiple sectors. Tether Expands Investment Portfolio Beyond Bitcoin Tether has unveiled a glimpse into its expansive investment portfolio, marking a significant pivot in its capital allocation strategy beyond just Bitcoin. The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Tether, Paolo Ardoino, confirmed in an X social media post that the stablecoin firm has invested in over 120 companies as part of its Tether Investment division. He added that this number is expected to grow in the coming months and years. Notably, Ardoino disclosed that these investments are funded exclusively through the company’s record profits from 2024, which total $13.7 billion. He emphasized that none of the funds were obtained from reserves backing Tether’s stablecoin. Interestingly, Tether’s profits, generated from yield on its holdings of over $130 billion in US Treasuries, are now being directed into transformative industries through some of the most prominent companies. Its venture arm has expanded its focus past Bitcoin, now investing in areas like Artificial Intelligence (AI), renewable energy, privacy infrastructure, tokenization, agriculture, and others. When asked by Crypto Tale how this diverse portfolio supports USDT’s position amid an increasingly stringent global regulatory environment, Ardoino underscored its strategic importance. On the question of USDT’s future in Europe under the continent’s new MiCA regulations, the Tether CEO stated that the stablecoin company would only consider re-entry once the regulatory landscape offers stronger protections for both consumers and stablecoin issuers. Companies In Tether’s Venture Portfolio On its official website, Tether shared a partial list of some of the companies among the 120 it has invested in. These range from blockchain infrastructure platforms like Synonym and Holepunch, to AI-focused firms like Crystal Intelligence, and payment technology providers such as CityPay.io and Sorted Wallet. The presence of companies like Blackrock Neurotech and Adecoagro reflects a commitment to broader technological and environmental impact, reaching into neuroscience and agriculture, respectively. Tether’s investment narrative is framed not solely in financial terms but as a deliberate push toward catalyzing decentralization and empowering individuals. The stablecoin firm declared its capital as a “catalyst for change,” invested in projects that reduce reliance on centralized systems and promote global equity. This mission-driven approach is visible across its portfolio, which also includes companies involved in data sovereignty like Northern Data, cross-border financial solutions such as Quantoz and OrionX, and privacy-first communication platforms. Mansa, a DeFi fintech venture, and Oobit, a global crypto payment platform, have also joined Tether’s investment portfolio, marking another step toward the company’s push toward real-world crypto adoption. Both firms expressed appreciation for the support, aligning with Tether’s broader vision to integrate stablecoins into everyday payment systems.

Silver has had quite a run this month, up 7.40% only since the 10th of July. Today we'll take a quick look at an update of a multi-timeframe Silver analysis to spot the ongoing trends and see if the trend has still some juice. This article is a continuation of the article posted on the 15th of July where we only looked at intraday timeframes. Now let's take a step back. Read More: US Indices intraday update after the ISM PMI releases Silver Weekly Chart Silver Weekly Chart, July 24 2025 – Source: TradingView Momentum is strong for the metal but starting to test the upper bound of the RSI with around $2 to $3 missing towards the highs of the ongoing light blue weekly channel. This is a good drawing to keep on your charts to maintain a good view of where we are in the current trend. Silver Daily Chart Silver Daily Chart, July 24 2025 – Source: TradingView The precious metal has made an impulsive move higher reaching the $39 to $39.50 Resistance we observed last week. There is still work to do to test the high of the weekly channel, but the overbought conditions in the metal will make it difficult for an immediate move to happen. The 20 Day Moving Average is slowly catching up to the current prices, currently at $37.50. The two last impulsive moves (black arrows on the chart) have happened at around 20 days after the 20-Day MA rejoined the growing prices, after momentum retracted back to neutral. The higher probabilities are pointing towards a consolidation/small retracements to the trendline rather than an immediate break higher. Of course, anything can happen. Silver 4H Chart Silver Daily Chart, July 24 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking at the immediate price action, there are still some probabilities of an upside breakout, however a strong move higher on good volume with a daily close above the 39.51 previous highs would be necessary to up these odds (a simple retest won't do it for now). If a retracement lower happens, the consolidation has a high chance to hold between 37.50 (2012 Support) and 39.50 (Current resistance), particularly as these levels coincide with the May upwards trendline. If buyers maintain the prices above $39 throughout the end of the week, the odds of an upside breakout increase strongly Support Levels: Immediate intraday support 146.37 and 30m MA 50146.00 Pivot Zone (+/- 100 pips)Overnight lows 145.85Main Daily Support 142.00 regionResistance Levels: Resistance $39 to $39.539.51 last swing highs$40.50 to $41 potential Resistance at ATH and top of Rising ChannelA look back to the 2011 Silver chart Silver 2011 Daily Chart (all-year) – Source: TradingView It's interesting to look back at past performances especially when assets or financial products come back to previous historic levels. Spot the levels of major reactions on this chart, this could be interesting to watch if Silver reaches similar prices Most commonly traded Metals performance since May 2025 Metals comparative performance since the past 2 months, July 2025 – Source: TradingView Metals are ongoing a mighty move higher, similar to what happened between 2008 and 2011. Higher deficits seem not to have an end, and except for surprising rate hikes (unexpected for now), there doesn’t seem to be many reasons for metals to retrace essentially (except for a sudden cancelling of tariffs, substantially low odds of this happening.) Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As Bitcoin continues its upward momentum, technical analysts are pointing to the long-observed Power Law resistance band. While market sentiment remains bullish, the proximity to this structural ceiling raises the possibility of increased volatility and consolidation. Analyst Highlights Technical Headwinds Facing Bitcoin Rally Despite recent bullish momentum, Bitcoin has yet to break through a key resistance level on the long-term power law chart. According to Alphractal’s post on X, these trendlines have historically mapped support and resistance with impressive precision, while effectively guiding BTC price movements over the years. To confirm a sustained bull run, BTC must decisively break above the $122,000 level, which is currently acting as the ceiling on the long-term model. The BTC Long-Term Power Law is a powerful yet underappreciated indicator in the crypto space that offers a unique perspective on the long-term price behavior. This model utilizes a logarithmic scale on both price and time. This format is rarely used in traditional markets but is particularly suited for assets with exponential growth trajectories, such as BTC. By applying linear regression to log-log data, it generates smooth predictive trend lines that help provide a macro perspective on price evolution. Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $108,000 by the year 2033, says Joao_wedson, the creator of the Long-Term Power Law model. Such a move would violate the model historical trend. Furthermore, Alphractal notes that this tool is a must-watch for long-term investors aiming to position themselves strategically in the crypto market. Analyst Predicts Bitcoin’s Market Peak Within Six Months In an X post, analyst Colin Talks Crypto stated that it feels like Bitcoin might be roughly six months away from reaching the market top. Despite the ongoing price rally, he pointed out that sentiment remains surprisingly low, which is a key factor in his outlook. It will take time for retail to get excited, and sentiment indicators are near some of their lowest point, which suggests that BTC price could continue climbing before reaching the euphoric highs of a market top. The technical indicators are overwhelmingly bullish, which suggests that there is still room for the price to continue its ascent. The recent breakout on BTC Monthly Candle highlights sustained momentum, while the Crypto Bull & Bear Indicator (CBBI) remains relatively underheated. This suggests that the market is not yet overextended and could continue its upward trajectory. Additionally, the global M2 money supply continues its upward trajectory, while injecting liquidity into the financial system that can fuel asset price gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has reached new all-time highs, while reflecting positive investor confidence and risk appetite that often extends into the crypto markets. The Government and corporate BTC treasuries have barely even begun to take shape. Colin mentioned that the hype around institutional adoption is still on the horizon as we approach the market top.

The Boss, a crypto analyst, recently noted on a X post that Litecoin (LTC) is firmly holding its long-term upward trend that began back in 2020. According to his analysis, LTC has consistently bounced off this key ascending trendline, highlighting its ongoing relevance in the current market structure. As price action continues to respect this support, The Boss points out that the next crucial zones to watch are the yellow lines representing potential resistance areas marked by Fibonacci levels that could shape LTC’s next major move. Positive Technical Indicators In his analysis, The Boss stated that Litecoin’s momentum is strengthening, as reflected by the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which is currently around 64. This level also indicates growing buying strength in the market, suggesting that bulls are gradually gaining control and pushing prices higher without yet hitting overbought conditions. Moving on to momentum indicators, the Boss explained that the MACD is trading in positive territory and has experienced a recent bullish crossover. This signal reinforces the rising momentum seen in Litecoin’s price action and the potential continuation of the existing trend if buyers maintain pressure. Additionally, Moving Averages (MA) are working in Litecoin’s favor. The Boss explained that $LTC is trading above both short- and long-term moving averages, particularly holding above the 50-day and 200-day MAs, which further supports the bullish outlook. These moving averages are critical support levels, and staying above them often attracts more bullish interest. Looking ahead, Fibonacci Zones provide key technical targets. The analyst emphasized that the $100 – $112 range remains a key technical resistance zone. A breakout above this level could open the path toward higher yellow-line targets, which are the next logical price areas to watch if momentum continues. Channeling Strength: LTC Holds Its Bullish Structure The Boss, in his structural analysis of Litecoin, noted that the price of LTC has remained within a well-defined ascending channel that has been in place since 2020. This long-term trendline has repeatedly acted as a strong support level, providing a foundation for upward moves. As long as LTC stays above this trendline, The Boss maintains a bullish mid-to-long-term outlook. This suggests that the overall trend remains intact, with potential for further gains if the price continues to respect this channel. In summary, The Boss maintains a bullish stance, underpinned by a combination of positive RSI and MACD signals, strong support from major moving averages, and clear resistance zones. He suggests that a push through the $100 – $112 range could trigger a larger upward move for Litecoin, taking aim at those higher yellow-line targets on the chart.

XRP/USD (Ripple) appears to have arrested its steep decline today with the cryptocurrency bouncing from just below the psychological $3.00 handle. Ripple dropped as much as 19% from its fresh all-time high around the $3.65 mark to a low of $2.96 earlier in the day. However, the move proved short lived as bulls returned to the party pushing XRP/USD back above the $3.00 to trade around $3.21 at the time of writing. XRP Futures Open Interest Cools - More Downside Ahead? Interest in XRP on the derivatives market is cooling off after a recent spike in futures Open Interest (OI) to $10.94 billion, the highest this year. According to Coinalyze, all Open Interest is down around 9% in the last 24 hours. The drop in XRP's price also led to $62.5 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours. Most of these losses came from long positions, which accounted for about $51.3 million, while short positions saw $11.2 million in liquidations. Source: Coinalyze Open Interest (OI) is an important metric in the derivatives market because it shows the total number of outstanding contracts (like futures or options) that have not been settled or closed. It gives traders and investors insight into the level of activity and interest in a particular asset. Falling Open Interest (OI) means traders are closing their positions, which could suggest uncertainty, taking profits, or declining interest in the asset. This is no surprise as many market participants may have taken profit once fresh all-time highs were reached on July 18. Ripple (XRP/USD) Co-Founder Cashing Out XRP Profits? Since July 17, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen has transferred 50 million XRP, worth about $175 million, to exchanges, according to blockchain investigator ZachXBT. Social media users are criticizing the 65-year-old Silicon Valley executive, accusing him of insider trading with Ripple. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), ZachXBT revealed that the XRP was sent to four different wallet addresses, with around $140 million of it ending up on exchanges or services. This news has caused XRP’s price to drop over 9% in the last 24 hours, now trading at $3.21 during Thursday’s US session. Ripple’s token had fallen 19% from its all-time high of $3.65. ZachXBT’s investigation shows that three wallets received 30 million XRP combined, while a fourth wallet got 10 million XRP. Two newly activated wallets were also credited with 5 million XRP each, totaling 50 million XRP moved in less than a week. When asked how much XRP Larsen still holds, ZachXBT said the wallets still control over 2.81 billion XRP. At the current price of $3.11 per token, this is worth $8.7 billion, which is about 4.6% of XRP’s $183 billion market cap. These transfers happened just after XRP hit a local high of $3.60 last Friday before dropping below $3.10. The price drop, partly blamed on the selloff, has led to accusations that Larsen is profiting by selling at XRP’s peak and “dumping” on retail investors. Looking at the big picture though, one would expect whales to at some point cash out some of their holdings when fresh all-time highs are being made. Technical Analysis - XRP/USD From a technical standpoint, XRP/USD made a brief foray below the psychological $3.00 handle before bulls stepped in. The RSI period-14 has left overbought territory which is a sign of a shift in momentum. However, the daily candle may still hold the key, a hammer candle close on the daily timeframe could be a sign that bullish interest remains strong. We also have a golden cross pattern which came to fruition on Tuesday as the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day MA. This is a sign of bullish momentum despite the golden cross being a lagging indicator in many ways. This leaves market participants a bit undecided, as the RSI hints at a rise in bearish momentum while the golden cross hints at bullish momentum. Immediate support rests at $3.05 before the psychological $3.00 handle comes into play. The daily low at $2.96 if broken could lead to further downside with a trendline retest not completely out of the question. Resistance may be found at $3.39 with a break above looking toward the $3.50 before the ATH at $3.65 comes back into focus. Ripple (XRP/USD) Daily Chart, July 24, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Freegold Ventures’ (TSX: FVL) shares soared to a five-year high on Thursday after a resource update for the company’s Golden Summit project in Alaska lifted the contained indicated metal by 42% to 17.2 million ounces. The update gives the project in central Alaska 431.94 million indicated tonnes grading 1.24 grams gold per tonne, a 15% increase in grade over the previous estimate from September 2024, Freegold said on Thursday. Inferred resources now total 357.61 million tonnes at 1.04 grams gold, while contained gold increases by 16% to 11.9 million ounces. Golden Summit is about 30 km northeast of Fairbanks and 6 km north of Kinross Gold’s (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC) Fort Knox mine. “[The update] highlights the potential of Golden Summit and emphasizes the need for perseverance in some projects,” Freegold President and CEO Kristina Walcott said in an email to The Northern Miner. “The past five years have been transformative for the company, and we expect 2025 to be another exciting year, with 30,000 metres of drilling planned.” Huge resource growth The resource for Golden Summit has grown enormously since Freegold’s initial report in 2011, which outlined 7.79 million indicated tonnes grading 0.69 gram gold for 174,000 oz.; and 27 million inferred tonnes at 0.60 gram gold for 526,000 ounces. Freegold shares shot up to C$1.44 apiece on Thursday at mid-day, for a market capitalization of C$765.42 million. Thursday’s update incorporates results from more than 25,000 metres of drilling done last year, as well as recoveries from Freegold’s metallurgical program. Upgrading to indicated This year’s drill program is focused on upgrading inferred resources to indicated in support of a pre-feasibility study scheduled to start later in the year. The program is to comprise infill and expansion drilling and grade enhancement. Drilling should also enhance the resource and define a smaller, higher-grade starter pit, with the aim of reducing operating and initial capital costs. A 2016 preliminary economic assessment for Golden Summit gives it a post-tax net present value (at 5% discount) of $188 million, an internal rate of return of 19.6% and a payback period of 3.3 years. Initial capital costs are pegged at $88 million. The mine could produce 2.36 million oz. over a 24-year life, with average annual production of 96,000 ounces.

Resolute Mining (ASX, LSE: RSG) published on Thursday an initial resource estimate for the Bantaco project near its Mako open-pit gold mine in Senegal, where mining is due to end soon and stockpile processing is expected to begin this month. Bantaco is one of two potential satellite deposits that the Africa-focused miner is looking to develop to extend Mako’s mine life, with the other being Tomboronkoto. Both are within trucking distance of the Mako mill. Resolute says the Bantaco project would specifically create additional optionality and flexibility due to its “favourable development conditions” and could be the first deposit to enter production. The initial resource estimate is based on results of shallow drilling to date on the Bantaco South and West prospects. Together, they have an inferred gold resource of 266,000 oz., with potential to grow after further drilling at the Bantaco Main zone, which is set to commence later this year. “This milestone demonstrates the excellent progress our exploration team is actively making to successfully extend the life of mine at our Mako gold operation,” stated Chris Eger, managing director and CEO of Resolute Mining. With the latest update, the Tomboronkoto and Bantaco deposits now have a combined resource estimate of over 600,000 oz., with possibilities for expansion based on ongoing exploration. Together, these projects likely have the potential to provide another 5-10 years of mining in Senegal, Resolute said. “The Bantaco project is key to the extension of Mako and has the possibility to be developed ahead of the Tomboronkoto project, allowing us to build on our strong mining heritage in the region and established stakeholder relationships, which facilitate a clear development timeline,” Eger added. Eger assumed the CEO role on a full-time basis earlier this year following the resignation of Terry Holohan, who was detained in Mali last November amid a tax dispute with the African nation’s junta-led government.

Crypto analyst Crypto Bullet has alluded to a technical pattern for Ethereum, which mirrors its 2019/2020 price action. Based on the similarities, the analyst gave a breakdown of what to expect from ETH in the coming months. Ethereum Shows Descending Broadening Pattern In an X post, Crypto Bullet stated that Ethereum has shown an impressive recovery and is now starting to resemble a Descending Broadening Wedge pattern. He further noted that this pattern is almost identical to the one which ETH had between 2019 and 2020. The analyst added that the picture looks very bullish right now. Between 2019 and 2020, when this pattern emerged, the altcoin rallied from around $180 to $700 in just six months. Further commenting on the current Ethereum price action, Crypto Bullet revealed that the altcoin is testing the resistance at around $3,700 for the third time. He believes that ETH will eventually break out from this range. However, the analyst warned that there may be a 10 to 15% pullback around that area before that. Meanwhile, Crypto Bullet assured that Ethereum will rally hard once it breaks out from this formidable resistance. He predicts that this breakout will lead to a new all-time high (ATH) for ETH, meaning the altcoin is likely to reach $4,900 on the next uptrend. The analyst also stated that the cycle top target for ETH is between $8,000 and $10,000. Crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto is also confident that Ethereum can reach $10,000 before this market cycle ends. In an X post, he stated that the euphoria stage will start when ETH breaks a new all-time high (ATH). He indicated that the break above ATH will spark a rally to between $7,000 and $10,000. Once that happens, the analyst believes that a massive bear market will ensue. ETH Is Yet To Enter The Banana Zone In an X post, crypto analyst Ted stated that Ethereum is yet to enter the banana zone. He noted that right now, the altcoin is going through a correction after pulling a 70% rally from its April 2025 lows. The analyst further opined that there will be some sideways accumulation before ETH breaks above $4,100. However, once that happens, he predicts that Ethereum will record the “most violent rally.” His accompanying chart showed that ETH could rally to a new ATH of around $7,000 on the first leg up. Based on the chart, Ted also believes that the altcoin could reach $14,000, $41,000, and $92,000 at some point. At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $3,563, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The euro is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1763, down 0.03% on the day. Earlier, the euro climbed to a high of 1.1788, its highest level since July 7. ECB stays on the sidelines, cites trade tension uncertainty The European Central Bank's decision to maintain the key deposit rate at 2.0% was significant but not a surprise. With the hold, the ECB ended a streak of lowering rates at seven consecutive meetings. The ECB has been aggressive, chopping 250 basis points in just over a year. The ECB statement said that inflation was falling in line with the Bank's forecasts and that future rate decisions would be data dependent. President Lagarde has said that the easing cycle is almost down, but the markets are expecting at least one more rate cut before the end of the year. Is an EU-US trade agreement around the corner? The European Union and the United States are locked in negotiations over tariffs, with hopes that an agreement can be reached, on the heels of the US-Japan deal earlier this week. US President Trump has threatened to hit the EU with 30% tariffs if a deal is not made by August 1, but there are signals that the sides will agree to 15% tariffs on European imports, as was the case in the US-Japan agreement. If an agreement is reached, it will greatly reduce the uncertainty around tariffs and will make it easier for the ECB to lower rates and make more accurate forecasts for inflation and growth. US services accelerate, manufacturing contracts In the US, Services PMI rose to 55.2 in July, up from 52.9 in June and above the market estimate of 53.0. This pointed to strong expansion and marked the fastest pace of growth in seven months. Manufacturing headed the opposite direction, falling from 52.6 in June, a 37-month high, to 49.5. This was the first contraction since December, with new orders and employment falling. EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1771. Above, there is resistance at 1.17811.1753 and 1.1743 are the next support levels EURUSD 4-Hour Chart, July 24, 2024 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Authorities in China’s Jiangxi province have identified permitting issues at eight lithium mines in Yichun, one of the country’s key production hubs, as Beijing tightens oversight of its critical mineral sector. The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau recently issued notices to the mine operators requiring them to provide resource reserve verification reports after finding discrepancies between their licensed mining rights and the actual minerals being extracted, according a report by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. It follows similar measures taken last week in the western province of Qinghai, where local authorities in Haixi Prefecture ordered the shutdown of a mine run by Zangge Mining until proper lithium extraction permits are obtained. According to ministry findings, many of the resource extraction activities across the province’s salt lakes are not licensed for lithium, only minerals like potash. The moves come amid a broader regulatory push to curb illegal mining practices and bring greater discipline to the lithium supply chain, which has been expanding so rapidly in recent years that it even outpaced demand from the electric vehicle (EV) industry. Yichun, dubbed the “lithium capital” of China, holds a significant share of the country’s lithium output, primarily sourced from a rock known as lepidolite. Compared to the brine lakes on China’s western plateaus and the spodumene rock in southwestern Sichuan province, Yichun’s lepidolite-rich mountains are more accessible to battery makers. To date, the city has attracted investments from hundreds of key players in the EV sector, such as CATL and Gotion High Tech. Analysts say that while enforcement actions in Yichun could temporarily disrupt production, it may also help remove irregular players and stabilize the sector over the long term. According to Founder Securities, a China-based financial services company, these measures will “help the industry clean up excess supply.” Lithium prices in China have been soaring since some of the production in its key areas was halted last week. On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily upper limit, closing with a gain of over 7%, marking the highest level since March 2025. Shares of lithium miners also jumped.

We just received the first round (and only) of key US Data for this week with the ISM PMIs. Services keep dragging up the overall numbers, showing a 55.2 beat vs 53.0 expectations, while Manufacturing saw its first yearly decrease and now indicating contraction (49.0 vs 52.5 exp). The US Indices have opened mixed and have been moving a bit erratically amid some rewiring of flows, relative strength and Deal headlines. This is typical of the ongoing Earnings season. We will try to make some sense out of the price action by looking at all 3 majors US Indices' intraday charts – Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Read More: USDJPY re-enters its range after US-Japan trade deal—will it hold? Intraday charts for all Major US IndicesDow Jones 30m Chart Dow Jones 30m Chart, July 24 2025 – Source: TradingView After testing the January all-time high levels (45,060) at the close but failing to breach it, some sellers have mean-reverted the action overnight, marking pre-open lows on the US 30 CFD at 44,692. Despite the contraction shown in manufacturing, some buyers are stepping in to test the overnight short-term downtrend – breaching above 44,920 on a 30m close would give them the extra hand they might be requiring to try to finally push to new ATH but watch if they fail to do so. Other indices would however need to follow higher to drag the index and buyers would have to get stronger to avoid profit-taking to settle in. A rejection of current levels would point towards a retest of the Immediate Pivot Zone near 44,650 and would consolidate the ongoing rangebound action. S&P 500 30m Chart S&P 500 30m Chart, July 24 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has just been bullying through new all-time highs and has formed a decent looking upwards channel – Watch for the ongoing reactions at the Potential Resistance (6,395 to 6,400). MES futures did breach that zone easily, and with the current Services PMI Data, only a drag from the upwards channel and sellers in other indices would prevent that level to be achieved. Ongoing momentum is strong. Nasdaq 30m Chart Nasdaq 30m Chart, July 24 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq has formed an intermediate double top at its all-time highs (23,288 on its CFD) amid some shift in positioning towards other indices. The Index had been doing the same as the S&P, just blazing through all-time highs almost daily – Traders will have to breach the current highs if they want to keep the hand. A failure to do so may indicate some short-term correction taking place as the current top is located right at a higher timeframe 161.8% Fib extension (spotted in this previous Nasdaq analysis) There is some small ongoing buying to monitor. Parenthesis on interesting chart Source – Chris Stradele on X, Chart from CNN The CBOE Put/Call Ratio is at extremes with a huge proportion of Calls getting bought over Puts – A sign of extreme greed in the options market. I recall a 2022 Bear Market bottom on the exact reverse. You can check out the Put/Call Ratio right here. Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has enjoyed a strong run this week but is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3540, down 0.28% on the day. Over the past three days, the pound has jumped 1.3%, as the major currencies have gained ground against the US dollar. UK services dip, manufacturing contracts in JulyUK PMIs weakened in July, another sign of trouble in the UK economy. Services PMI dropped to 51.2, down from 52.8 in June and shy of the market estimate of 53.0. New orders were down and service managers pointed to weak domestic demand and a drop in exports due to global trade tensions. The manufacturing PMI posted a slight improvement in July, rising to 48.2 from 47.7. The reading was just above the market consensus of 48.0 and marked a six-month high, as manufacturing remains mired in contraction. New orders are down as businesses delay spending decisions due to uncertainty over US trade policy. The UK wraps up the week with retail sales on Friday. The markets expect a rebound in June after a dismal May, in which retail sales declined 2.7% y/y and 1.3% m/m. The market estimate is for gains of 1.8% y/y and 1.2% m/m. US services heat up, manufacturing declines In the US, Services PMI rose to 55.2 in July, up from 52.9 in June and above the market estimate of 53.0. This indicated strong expansion and was the fastest pace of growth in seven months. Manufacturing headed the opposite direction, falling from 52.6 in June, a 37-month high, to 49.5. This was the first contraction since December, with new orders and employment falling. GBP/USD Technical GBPUSD has pushed below support at 1.3560 and is testing support at 1.3535. Below, there is support at 1.3491There is resistance at 1.3560 and 1.3604 GBPUSD 1-Day Chart, July 24, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Crypto markets awoke on Wednesday to the first meaningful bout of selling in more than a month, and Kev Capital TA did not sound surprised. In a late-night livestream, the analyst told viewers that Bitcoin’s failure to clear the “brick-wall” band between $120,000 and $123,000 had made an altcoin shake-out “the most obvious pullback spot ever,” capping four straight weeks of euphoric gains across Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, XRP and the rest of the sector. Crypto Bulls Crushed: Why Altcoins Ran Out Of Gas “Daily RSIs were at ninety on everything, including ETH, while Bitcoin was pinned under one-twenty,” he said. “That is a textbook sell wall. You don’t blast through that after running straight up for a month.” His chart of Total-2—the market-cap index that strips out Bitcoin—showed the gauge banging into the exact horizontal ceiling that had turned back altcoins in May, August and November 2021, again in December 2024, and once more in January this year. Each rebuff, he reminded the audience, had sparked corrections of 30-to-60 percent in the majors and far larger drawdowns in the speculative tail. Kev’s core message was that nothing in the current tape resembles a lasting top for the cycle. The move, he argued, is a pressure-release that clears excess leverage and restores “risk-free long exposure” for disciplined traders who skimmed profits on the way up. The fulcrum remains Bitcoin. Until the largest asset can establish weekly closes above the 1.0886 Fibonacci extension at $119,964, altcoins will “run out of gas.” He located initial Bitcoin support at $116,400, with deeper cushions at the $112–113k band and, in a worst-case flush, the $106.8k shelf. A break below the first of those levels “isn’t necessary” in his view, but he warned new entrants against treating a ten-percent dip in their favorite microcap as a buying opportunity: “If Total-2 drops another thirty percent, your altcoin is going down a lot more than ten.” Why, then, does he remain upbeat? Kev cited a confluence of on-chain and macro tailwinds that, in his back-testing, have never failed to resolve higher. Bitcoin’s weekly Hash Ribbons flashed a buy signal nine weeks ago and has advanced only eight percent since—far below the historical mean of thirty-eight to one-hundred-one percent that materialises two to nine weeks after the trigger. A second, still-pending buy signal is “coming within the next week or two,” stacking probabilistic odds in favour of a leg higher. At the same time, he noted, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program is “barely selling anything on the balance sheet,” while Truth Inflation’s real-time gauge pins headline CPI at 2.0–2.1 percent. A spate of tariff de-escalations—including a tentative, across-the-board fifteen-percent cut in EU-US duties announced moments before he went live—suggests that inflation risks are skewing lower rather than higher. “As long as the macro stays quiet—low inflation, steady labour market, dovish policy projections—valuations can march north,” he argued, adding that upcoming earnings from Google, Tesla and the rest of Big Tech will feed directly into crypto multiples because “the guidance is correlated whether you like it or not.” Seasonality is the wild card. August and September are notoriously fickle for risk assets, a period he likened to “the biggest vacation month of the year and then back-to-school.” Yet he stressed that cyclicality alone cannot trump a supportive macro backdrop. Instead, he expects a period of choppy consolidation—anchored by Bitcoin’s tussle with $120k and the golden-pocket bounce in Bitcoin Dominance—before the market’s next sustained advance. “We are like the running back; the offensive line has opened the hole, but we haven’t burst through it yet,” he said. “If macro stays resilient, this is the year it finally happens.” His forward timeline therefore hinges on two visible catalysts: A decisive Bitcoin breakout above $123,000. When that prints on a multi-day close, he believes the four-year Total-2 ceiling will snap, unleashing capital rotation back into ETH and the broader alt market. “Everything leads back to Bitcoin,” he said. “Crack that wall and the catch-up trade reignites.” Second is the continuation of the benign macro mix through Q3. Should inflation hold near two percent and the Fed confirm an end-to-QT schedule in its September meeting, Kev projects the next Hash-Ribbons signal will “play out as violently bullish as the model has ever shown,” delivering what he calls the “last six-month window” of the cycle. Asked in chat “when this pullback will be over,” the analyst refused to pin a date on it. “I’m not looking at the clock,” he replied. “Time doesn’t matter; the levels do.” Still, his body language betrayed optimism: he plans no further sales, sees no need to add until volatility subsides, and—despite acknowledging August’s chop potential—spoke repeatedly about “riding what I have” into the final quarter of 2025. In other words, the cool-down now underway is less a bear-market omen than the mandatory breather before a potential breakout. Traders who missed the July run are advised to watch Bitcoin’s $116k and $112k buffers for signs of an exhaustion wick, monitor Bitcoin Dominance for a failure rally below sixty percent, and keep an eye on the next CPI print. If those dominoes fall in line, Kev Capital is confident the real fireworks—an altcoin surge that carries Total-2 into price discovery for the first time since 2021—will begin “sooner than most people think, and definitely while everyone’s still on summer holiday.” At press time, TOTAL2 stood at $1.44 trillion.

Orla Mining (TSX: OLA)(NYSE: ORLA) stopped pit‑mining activities at its Camino Rojo oxide mine in central Mexico after heavy rains triggered a pit‑wall slide. The stock plunged. The incident took place early Thursday along the temporary north wall of the open pit, which included ore material expected to be mined as part of the ultimate open pit, Orla said in a statement. There were no injuries or equipment damage due the material movement, which was detected early by site monitoring systems. Vancouver-based Orla is assessing the impact of the incident on full-year production targets. Camino Rojo had been expected to churn out 110,000–120,000 oz. of gold this year after producing 55,100 oz. in the first six months of 2025, including 25,100 oz. in the second quarter. The full-year production forecast could be revised depending on the duration of the mining shutdown, Desjardins Securities mining analyst Allison Carson said. Scotia Capital said stockpiles would support output but reduced its full-year estimate by 5%. “The mining suspension and reduction in pit access means the company must rely more heavily on stockpile processing throughout the third quarter to support gold production,” Scotia Capital mining analyst Ovais Habib said in a note. “Although the tonnage of material involved in the event was not reported at this time, we expect that the existing stockpiles are adequate to support operations until mining can resume, but reduced grade and additional cost/capital for rehabilitation could negatively impact 2025 production and all-in sustaining costs.” Forecast output Orla shares tumbled 14% to C$13.83 apiece in Thursday morning trading in Toronto, giving the company a market value of about C$4.5 billion. The stock has traded between C$4.60 and C$17.45 in the past year. Habib cut his to 270,500 oz. due to lower stacked grades at Camino Rojo for the rest of the year. Orla’s 2025 guidance calls for total output to reach 280,000-300,000 ounces. Camino Rojo represents 34% of Scotia Capital’s 2025 production estimate for Orla and 38% of the company’s net asset value estimate. Authorities in Mexico have been notified to ensure safe operations, which the company said remains its top priority. A “comprehensive analysis” is being carried out to ensure the stability of mining operations, Orla said. Pit access has been restricted to the necessary technical and operating personnel during the temporary mining halt, Orla also said. This will support the appropriate geotechnical assessments required for remediation and the safe resumption of activities. Subsidence While there’s been no impact on the environment, Orla said it will need to re-establish rain diversion channels to prevent further material subsidence in the pit. Exploration work at Camino Rojo is likely to be undisrupted as most of the drilling on the underground sulphides is conducted from surface, outside the pit, Habib also said. Camino Rojo is one of Orla’s two producing assets, along with the Musselwhite underground mine in Ontario. The company is also advancing the development‑stage South Railroad project in Nevada. Orla’s initial resource for Camino Rojo, released last month, outlined 3.9 million contained gold oz. grading 2.45 grams gold per tonne. The underground deposit hosts 50.1 million measured and indicated tonnes at 10.6 grams silver and 0.25% zinc for 17.05 million oz. silver and 278 million lb. zinc, Orla said June 5. The resource is based on more than 400,000 metres of drilling under the producing oxide open pit at Camino Rojo, which is located in Zacatecas state about 620 km northwest of Mexico City.