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🔶 Bitcoin domina redes sociais e mineradora MARA atinge 50 mil BTC em balanço 📰 Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado | Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE 📅 04 de Julho de 2025 📌 Resumo Executivo O Bitcoin (BTC) volta a liderar o centro das atenções do mercado com dois eventos que reforçam sua força institucional e o interesse global por ativos escassos: O BTC é, segundo dados da Santiment, o ativo mais mencionado nas redes sociais em julho. A mineradora pública Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) confirmou que atingiu 50.000 BTC sob custódia, consolidando uma estratégia corporativa de longo prazo (HODL). Com o BTC cotado em US$ 109.011, os sinais técnicos e fundamentais apontam para um novo ciclo de valorização, sustentado por uma combinação entre acúmulo institucional, escassez líquida no mercado spot e o novo plano fiscal de Donald Trump, baseado em gastos estratégicos e reconstrução industrial. 🧭 BTC lidera engajamento global nas redes sociais 📊 Dado técnico: Segundo a Santiment, o Bitcoin superou todas as altcoins em menções, engajamento e alcance nas redes sociais, retomando sua posição como o principal foco de atenção do mercado cripto globalmente. Este movimento coincide com o avanço de políticas monetárias inflacionárias nos EUA, instabilidade geopolítica e crescente desconfiança sobre moedas fiduciárias. O BTC, nesse cenário, volta a ser visto como ativo não soberano e resistente à manipulação governamental. 🏢 MARA acumula 50.000 BTC e transforma mineração em tesouraria A Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) revelou ter atingido 50.000 BTC em seu balanço patrimonial, após 12 meses de execução de sua estratégia "HODL Corporativo". 🔎 Destaques institucionais: A MARA acumula BTC em vez de vender, reduzindo a oferta circulante e ajudando na sustentação dos preços. Esse movimento sinaliza que mineradoras agora operam como instituições de custódia de BTC, e não apenas como fornecedoras de liquidez ao mercado. A estratégia é análoga à da MicroStrategy, reforçando a visão de longo prazo. 📊 Análise Técnica e Sentimento Atual Indicador Situação Atual Interpretação Estratégica Preço atual do BTC US$ 109.011 Forte tendência de alta, sem resistências imediatas Sentimento social BTC domina redes Potencial de novo fluxo especulativo e institucional Acúmulo institucional (MARA) 50.000 BTC em custódia Pressão compradora estrutural Derivativos Aumento de open interest e calls Expectativa de extensão da alta até US$ 120k ETFs de Bitcoin Reentrada líquida nas últimas 3 semanas Reforço de demanda spot institucional 🔮 Projeções ExpertFX para o BTC Com base na análise fundamental e no comportamento dos grandes players, os próximos níveis técnicos a observar são: 📈 Resistências potenciais: US$ 112.500 – primeiro alvo de curto prazo US$ 120.000 – resistência psicológica forte US$ 129.000 – alvo de extensão institucional (baseado em Fibonacci e projeções de fluxo) 📉 Suportes relevantes: US$ 101.300 – zona de liquidez spot (ex-breakout) US$ 98.000 – suporte psicológico de ciclo 🧠 Conclusão ExpertFX School A ascensão do Bitcoin para mais de US$ 109 mil não é resultado de euforia, mas de um movimento silencioso de reestruturação macroeconômica, fiscal e monetária nos EUA e em outras grandes economias. O papel do BTC como reserva estratégica, hedge contra inflação e instrumento de independência patrimonial está mais claro do que nunca. A entrada de mineradoras como MARA, com atuação ativa no mercado institucional, consolida uma nova estrutura de oferta. Já o domínio do BTC nas redes sociais prepara o terreno para nova entrada de investidores de varejo e reforço dos volumes em derivativos. 📢 Mantenha-se atualizado com nossas análises diárias na ExpertFX School. Aqui você encontra cobertura completa de BTC, ouro, geopolítica, macroeconomia e estratégias operacionais com leitura institucional.

📘 Estados Unidos e alternativa de Trump: Gastar ou Morrer Tentando Análise Profissional por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado e Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE 🧭 Resumo Executivo A nova diretriz econômica da presidência Trump está clara: “gastar para crescer”. Após o fracasso da estratégia de contenção fiscal e entraves na política monetária, os EUA entram em uma nova fase: gasto agressivo, dólar mais fraco e estímulo industrial em larga escala. Este movimento está redesenhando a paisagem macroeconômica global — e prepara o terreno para uma nova perna de alta no ouro, na indústria militar, no petróleo e até em criptoativos lastreados em infraestrutura monetária. 📌 Tópicos-Chave: 1. 🇺🇸 “Gastar para Crescer” é o novo Plano B de Trump O antigo Plano A — acordos bilaterais, corte de impostos, contenção fiscal — esbarrou em dois obstáculos: O Fed se recusa a cortar juros rapidamente; O Congresso é hostil a cortes profundos de gastos. Resultado? Entra em cena o Plano B: estímulo via gasto público e desvalorização do dólar: 2. 💥 Guerra Fria Econômica e Corrida Global por Gastos A promessa da OTAN de gastar 5% do PIB em defesa reforça a corrida armamentista fiscal. Gastos militares, reconstrução energética e estímulos industriais estão substituindo a austeridade. A guerra econômica agora é quem gasta mais, cresce mais — e domina os fluxos globais de capital. 3. 📈 Ouro não sobe mais por medo. Sobe por certeza de reconstrução monetária A alta do ouro em 2025 já não está mais ligada ao caos, mas sim ao fim da frugalidade global. 95% dos bancos centrais esperam elevar suas reservas em ouro. O gasto público irrestrito, a reconstrução monetária via infraestrutura de pagamentos (incluindo criptoativos) e a perda de confiança no dólar aceleram a demanda pelo ouro como reserva estratégica. XAU/USD pode projetar-se para US$ 3.600–4.200/oz com base nos fluxos institucionais e expansão de balanço dos governos. 4. 🏭 Guerra Industrial: petróleo iraniano, acordos com China e Europa recua Trump bombardeia instalações nucleares do Irã e, dias depois, anuncia cessar-fogo e possibilidade de reinserção do petróleo iraniano ao mercado global. Vietnam, China e Reino Unido já fecharam acordos comerciais, enquanto Japão e UE correm contra o tempo para evitar tarifas que podem chegar a 30% ou mais. A UE, inclusive, abandonou temporariamente o plano de taxar big techs americanas — uma vitória comercial estratégica para os EUA. 5. 🧱 Infraestrutura de Pagamentos: o Novo Ouro Digital? Uma nova forma de Keynesianismo digital e militar está surgindo: Gastos em infraestrutura física (pontes, energia); Investimentos em infraestrutura monetária (stablecoins, CBDCs, rails de pagamento descentralizado); Construção de redes paralelas ao SWIFT; O crescimento de stablecoins colateralizadas por ouro e petróleo tende a acelerar. 6. 📉 Impacto no Mercado Financeiro ✔️ O que esperar: Ativo Direção Esperada Motivo XAU/USD (Ouro) 📈 Alta forte Demanda institucional + reconstrução monetária USD/JPY, DXY (Dólar) 📉 Queda gradual Política explícita de enfraquecimento cambial para estímulo Ações Industriais 📈 Alta Gastos militares e acordos comerciais Criptoativos 📈 Alta seletiva Relevância de stablecoins e rails de pagamento Treasuries 📉 Pressão vendedora Expectativa de déficits prolongados e inflação estrutural 🧭 Conclusão ExpertFX School: O Novo Normal é Gastar Estamos vivendo o início de uma corrida armamentista econômica, onde o que define liderança global é a capacidade de gastar sem colapsar. O ouro será o principal beneficiário, não como refúgio de caos, mas como âncora de credibilidade num sistema global que busca reconstrução monetária. 📌 A frase que resume o cenário atual:

Bitcoin’s upward momentum has returned, with the asset briefly crossing the $110,000 threshold before pulling back slightly. After hitting a 24-hour high of $110,117, Bitcoin now trades at $109,386, reflecting a 1.8% increase in the past day. This recent push places the asset about $2,000 surge away from its all-time high of $111,814, recorded in May 2025, prompting renewed attention from traders and analysts. While price movements often attract headlines, on-chain data has started signaling deeper market activity. Binance Sees 3,400 Bitcoin in Outflows as Spot Volume Surges According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, a substantial volume of BTC has recently been moved off Binance, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. The shift aligns with anticipation around a series of US macroeconomic indicators, which historically tend to influence risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Taha highlighted that Binance recorded a net outflow of over 3,400 BTC in a single day. This occurred shortly after Bitcoin’s price breached the $109,000 mark. Large-scale withdrawals from exchanges such as Binance are often interpreted as a sign that holders may be preparing to hold their assets longer-term, or shielding their positions from potential short-term volatility. Simultaneously, Binance’s share of the global Bitcoin spot volume surged significantly, from 41% to 56% in just one session. Taha noted that this spike indicates increased reliance on Binance’s liquidity by traders seeking exposure to Bitcoin ahead of anticipated market-moving economic data. The outflow trend, paired with rising spot volume, suggests that traders are actively responding to broader market signals, especially from traditional finance. US Jobs Report Drives Market Positioning The current surge in Bitcoin activity coincides with heightened market focus on US labor market data, including the Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings figures. These indicators are closely watched by investors as they influence inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rate adjustments. Shifts in rate expectations often have direct consequences for risk assets like Bitcoin, as changes in the cost of capital affect liquidity and investor appetite. Taha suggests that the recent Binance outflows may reflect investor positioning ahead of potential macro-driven market volatility. “Bitcoin outflows from Binance alongside the sharp rise in spot trading activity… appear to show that investors are positioning for potential upside volatility,” he wrote. A favorable labor report could amplify bullish sentiment across both equity and crypto markets if it strengthens expectations of a rate cut or an extended pause in rate hikes. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

📊 Análise Técnica e Institucional: ETF de Ouro pode impulsionar nova perna de alta no XAU/USD? Por Igor Pereira – ExpertFX School | Análise Profissional com Viés Institucional 🟡 Contexto Atual: Fluxos para ETFs e Alta do Ouro O gráfico acima compara dois elementos cruciais para a dinâmica do ouro: 📉 ETP Holdings (em azul, escala da esquerda): Representa o volume de ouro físico detido por ETFs (Exchange-Traded Products). 📈 Preço do ouro ($/oz, linha amarela, escala da direita): Evolução do preço spot do metal desde 2019. 📌 O que o gráfico mostra? Descorrelação recente entre preço e fluxos de ETFs: Os preços do ouro atingiram máximas históricas acima de US$ 3.300/oz em 2025, mesmo com os ETFs ainda longe de seus picos de 2020–2021. O gráfico destaca que existe “ground to cover”, ou seja, espaço para recuperação dos fluxos institucionais via ETFs, caso o apetite por proteção aumente. Reversão nos fluxos: A partir de meados de 2024, os holdings dos ETFs voltaram a subir. Em junho de 2025, os fluxos atingiram o maior nível desde 2023, sugerindo que instituições estão retornando ao ouro físico via ETFs. 🧠 O "Bull Case" para o Ouro: Por que ainda há espaço para subir? Historicamente, quando os ETFs retornaram a seus picos anteriores (~130Moz), o preço do ouro respondeu com movimentos de US$ 300 a US$ 900 por onça troy. Se esse comportamento se repetir e os ETFs voltarem ao pico de 2020-2021, o XAU/USD pode projetar novos patamares entre US$ 3.600 a US$ 4.200/oz. 📌 Fatores Técnicos e Fundamentais que suportam essa visão 🏦 1. Compras por Bancos Centrais Em maio de 2025, bancos centrais adicionaram 20 toneladas líquidas ao estoque global, mantendo a tendência de acumulação iniciada em 2022. 95% dos bancos centrais esperam aumentar ou manter suas reservas em ouro em 2025, reforçando o valor do metal como hedge contra crise e inflação. 📉 2. Desdolarização e Saída do USD das Reservas Globais 73% dos bancos centrais esperam reduzir a proporção do dólar em suas reservas nos próximos 5 anos. O ouro é visto como alternativa neutra e não soberana, ideal para realocação de portfólio. 🌐 3. Tarifas Trump e Aversão ao Risco O novo pacote tarifário anunciado por Donald Trump pode elevar a aversão ao risco sistêmico, impulsionando os fluxos para ouro físico e ETFs. O ambiente geopolítico hostil cria pressão compradora institucional no ouro. 🔮 Cenários Possíveis para o Preço do Ouro Cenário ETP Holdings XAU/USD Estimado Conservador Retorna a 115Moz US$ 3.500/oz Moderado Retorna a 125Moz US$ 3.800/oz Otimista Retorna ao pico de 135Moz US$ 4.200/oz 🧭 O Que Monitorar nos Próximos Meses 🔎 Dados semanais de fluxos nos ETFs de ouro (SPDR Gold Trust, iShares, etc.) 📆 Decisões de bancos centrais (Fed, ECB, PBoC) e aumento das reservas em ouro 💬 Retórica geopolítica (Trump, China, Irã, Rússia) que possa alimentar demanda por hedge 📉 Correlação entre taxas de juros reais e fluxos para ouro físico ✅ Conclusão ExpertFX School Com preço do ouro em alta histórica, mas fluxos institucionais via ETFs ainda com “espaço a recuperar”, o mercado de ouro possui um potencial latente de alta, que poderá ser destravado com: Nova onda de desdolarização Crise de confiança no sistema financeiro Avanço das tensões geopolíticas Reaceleração da inflação global O investidor atento ao XAU/USD deve estar preparado para um possível movimento explosivo se os ETFs voltarem a níveis históricos. 📣 “O ouro pode estar apenas começando uma nova perna de alta – e os ETFs serão o combustível.” Não perca as próximas atualizações aqui na ExpertFX School!

Solana started a recovery wave above the $150 zone. SOL price is now correcting gains and might struggle to rise above the $155 resistance. SOL price started a fresh decline after it failed to clear $155 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading near $152 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $151 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it clears the $156 resistance zone. Solana Price Trims Gains Solana price started a decent increase after it cleared the $150 resistance, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed above the $152 level to enter a short-term positive zone. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $160 swing high to the $144 low. However, the bears were active near the $156 resistance. They protected a move above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $160 swing high to the $144 low. The price is now moving lower and trading below the $154 level. Solana is now trading near $152 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $151 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $155 level. The next major resistance is near the $156 level. The main resistance could be $160. A successful close above the $160 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $162. Any more gains might send the price toward the $165 level. Another Decline in SOL? If SOL fails to rise above the $155 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $150 zone. The first major support is near the $146 level. A break below the $146 level might send the price toward the $142 zone. If there is a close below the $142 support, the price could decline toward the $136 support in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $150 and $146. Major Resistance Levels – $155 and $160.

🗞️ TRUMP AVANÇA COM TARIFAS UNILATERAIS: COMEÇA A IMPOSIÇÃO GLOBAL A PARTIR DE 1º DE AGOSTO Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado e Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School | Análises Geopolíticas e Impactos Macroeconômicos 📌 Resumo Executivo O presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, confirmou que começará a enviar cartas formais com tarifas unilaterais a partir desta sexta-feira, impondo novas alíquotas de importação sobre produtos estrangeiros com vigência a partir de 1º de agosto de 2025. Essa medida marca uma escalada na política comercial protecionista da atual administração, com tarifas que variam de 10% a até 70% sobre importações de diversos países. 📦 O Que Está em Jogo: Novas Tarifas em Escala Global Entre 10 e 12 países receberão as primeiras cartas nesta sexta-feira (4 de julho) Até o dia 9 de julho, todos os parceiros comerciais deverão estar notificados As tarifas poderão chegar a 70% em alguns casos, superando os 50% anunciados em abril no chamado pacote “Dia da Libertação Comercial” Os países que não fecharem acordos bilaterais até 9 de julho estarão automaticamente sujeitos aos novos impostos de importação 🤝 Situação dos Acordos Comerciais ✅ Acordos Confirmados: 🇬🇧 Reino Unido 🇻🇳 Vietnã: 20% sobre exportações gerais e 40% sobre produtos “transshipment” (redirecionados da China via Vietnã) ⚠️ Em negociação: 🇨🇳 China: Trégua parcial estabelecida 🇪🇺 União Europeia 🇯🇵 Japão: Considerado "difícil" por Trump, podendo enfrentar tarifas de até 35% 🇮🇳 Índia: Negociações avançadas, mas sem confirmação oficial 🇰🇷 Coreia do Sul: Em tratativas 🔍 Análise Técnica e Institucional – Impacto nos Mercados 📈 1. Impacto sobre o Dólar (USD): A política tarifária pode fortalecer o dólar no curto prazo, pela repatriação de receitas e inflação importada. No entanto, o risco de retaliações comerciais, queda no volume de comércio global e incerteza institucional tende a enfraquecer o USD no médio/longo prazo, especialmente contra moedas de países emergentes exportadores de commodities. 🟡 2. Reflexos no Ouro (XAU/USD): Alta volatilidade esperada no XAU/USD, com possível valorização do ouro diante do aumento do risco geopolítico e comercial A continuidade da política de Trump em retaliar parceiros pode elevar a aversão global ao risco, impulsionando fluxos para ativos de proteção, como ouro e franco suíço (CHF) A imposição de tarifas a partir de agosto pode coincidir com os cortes esperados pelo Fed, reforçando a tese de valorização do ouro no segundo semestre 🏭 3. Mercado de Ações e Cadeias Globais: Empresas com cadeias de produção expostas a Ásia e Europa podem sofrer desvalorização Fabricantes com operações no Vietnã chegaram a subir após o anúncio do acordo parcial com os EUA Setores afetados: tecnologia, automóveis, semicondutores, farmacêutico e bens industriais 🚢 4. Comércio Global: Risco crescente de guerra comercial em múltiplas frentes, com possível efeito dominó: Aumento do custo de insumos e bens intermediários Redução da competitividade das exportações Elevação da inflação via canais de importação Países como Japão, Alemanha, França e Coreia do Sul podem retaliar com medidas semelhantes 🔮 O Que Esperar Cenário Base (sem acordo com UE e Japão): Tarifa média de 30% aplicada sobre importações de grandes economias Redução no comércio bilateral Reforço da tendência global de regionalização da produção Cenário Alternativo (acordos até 9 de julho): Acordos bilaterais com Japão e UE aliviariam os mercados Trump pode usar a imposição como ferramenta de negociação, recuando após concessões estratégicas Riscos Adicionais: Volatilidade no mercado de commodities industriais Pressão sobre inflação global, especialmente em economias dependentes de importações dos EUA Potencial ação retaliatória da Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC) e blocos como UE e ASEAN 💬 Conclusão ExpertFX School A política comercial unilateral de Trump representa uma inflexão relevante nas relações econômicas globais. A imposição de tarifas entre 10% e 70% cria um ambiente de incerteza que afeta diretamente: A volatilidade cambial A dinâmica do XAU/USD O fluxo de capitais para ativos de segurança E o desempenho macroeconômico global A decisão de iniciar as tarifas em 1º de agosto marca um novo capítulo na guerra comercial sob a doutrina do “America First” com efeito direto sobre cadeias produtivas globais e potencial realocação de reservas cambiais em ouro. 📣 Fique atento aos próximos dias aqui na ExpertFX School: O envio das cartas tarifárias entre 5 e 9 de julho será o gatilho para um possível realinhamento global nos mercados.

Vincent Van Code, a software engineer and long-time XRP advocate, ignited fresh debate across the crypto community by outlining what he believes to be the transformative implications of Ripple’s bid for a US banking charter and a Federal Reserve master account. The developments, which Ripple confirmed 2 July, would position the company at the epicenter of both crypto innovation and traditional financial infrastructure. According to Van Code, the impact of such regulatory approvals would go far beyond Ripple’s current operations. “With Ripple announcing they are seeking a banking charter as well as a Fed master account, this means they will be the very first crypto bank,” he posted via X. He detailed that the move could allow Ripple to hold reserves directly with the Federal Reserve, bypassing commercial banks, and operate as a full-service financial institution offering both fiat and crypto products. This would include the ability to provide FDIC-insured deposit accounts—potentially even for certain crypto assets—up to the $250,000 limit, and lend against crypto collateral such as XRP. “That’s going to be nuts. And XRP is flying it all together,” he wrote, calling the possible integration of insured crypto banking and core cross-border remittances a paradigm shift. “2025 to 2026 will be marked in history as the era which the 100 year banking cartel began to crumble.” A master account would allow Ripple to interact directly with the Fed’s payment rails, including Fedwire and FedNow, giving it full access to the US financial system as a settlement counterparty. Combined with its push into stablecoins through RLUSD and its remittance infrastructure RippleNet, such a regulatory leap could fully embed Ripple into both domestic and international payment flows. Impact On XRP Price In a follow-up post, Van Code did something he says he rarely does: offer a specific XRP price prediction. “I usually don’t predict XRP price but often get asked, so here it is FINALLY,” he wrote. “My opinion is $30–$50. And this is no shill, I don’t expect anyone to agree with me. I am not prophet or time traveller. But my investment in XRP is based on this opinion.” While he didn’t commit to a timeframe, he emphasized that such targets are not arbitrary, but grounded in a set of unfolding macro and market catalysts. Among those catalysts, Van Code cited potential XRP spot ETF approval and an estimated $20–$50 billion in institutional capital inflows. He also pointed to a potential master account approval coupled with RippleNet capturing 20–30% of the $1 trillion cross-border payments market, and global adoption of XRP as a bridge asset for central bank digital currency (CBDC) corridors in over 50 countries. Van Code further noted the rising use case for Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD, arguing that demand for a Fed-backed digital dollar would reinforce XRP’s utility as a bridge currency. He also floated the idea that XRP could be used in Saudi oil settlements, citing Ripple’s confirmed 2024 collaboration with the Saudi central bank as a possible foundation for that evolution. His posts have struck a chord in the XRP community. “People weighed in on XRP price… Lots of interesting opinions. But common across all is everyone expecting price to at least 5x. This is a great sign,” he said. The idea that XRP could rise to $30–$50 implies a market cap in the trillions, something skeptics will call out as unrealistic. But for XRP holders, especially those who see Ripple’s regulatory path as a backdoor to institutional legitimacy, the confluence of a Fed master account, bank charter, ETF inflows, and global adoption isn’t merely theoretical. It’s a roadmap. At press time, XRP traded at $2.27.

XRP price started a decent upward move from the $2.20 zone. The price is now correcting some gains and might find bids near the $2.220 zone. XRP price started a fresh increase above the $2.220 zone. The price is now trading above $2.220 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2.2250 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start another decline if it fails to stay above the $2.220 zone. XRP Price Faces Resistance XRP price started a fresh increase after it settled above the $2.20 level, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above the $2.220 resistance level. The bulls were able to push the price above the $2.250 level. However, the bears were active near the $2.320 level. A high was formed at $2.310 and the price is now correcting some gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.148 swing low to the $2.310 high. The price is now trading above $2.220 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2.2250 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.2720 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.30 level. The next resistance is $2.320. A clear move above the $2.320 resistance might send the price toward the $2.350 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.40 resistance or even $2.420 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be $2.50. More Losses? If XRP fails to clear the $2.30 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.2250 level and the trend line. The next major support is near the $2.20 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.148 swing low to the $2.310 high. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.20 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $2.150 support. The next major support sits near the $2.120 zone. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.2250 and $2.20. Major Resistance Levels – $2.30 and $2.320.

TRON’s token TRX has barely budged despite a flurry of on‑chain action. Traders saw a 5% gain over the past week and a measly 0.50% uptick in the last 24 hours. But behind those mild price moves, there’s a storm of activity that could shape how TRX fares in the days ahead. Surge In On‑Chain Activity According to data from Artemis, daily transaction counts shot up to over 9 million, up from 7.5 million the day before. That jump in numbers sent active addresses soaring. On‑chain participants climbed to 2.7 million, marking the highest level since June 6. Based on reports, much of this traffic appears tied to stablecoin transfers rather than new users or fresh investment. The spike in transaction volume doesn’t match TRX’s price action. That gap hints at wallets moving funds out of exchanges, routing payments, or chasing yield elsewhere. Users aren’t rushing to hold TRX for its own sake. They’re using the network as a highway and then driving off into other chains. Stablecoin Outflows Hit Record High According to Artemis, TRON’s stablecoin supply hit $80 billion in June, setting a new milestone for the network. Since then, about $185 million worth of stablecoins have fled the chain. That outflow marks a sharp reversal in user habits. People who once parked their USDT and other tokens on TRON look to be shifting them to new destinations. The pullback follows a broader rotation in crypto markets where investors chase better rates or lower fees. TRON once drew crowds for its low transaction costs. Now, competing chains and Layer 2 platforms are undercutting its edge. That has cut into TRX’s role as the network’s workhorse token. Revenue And TVL Take A Hit Artemis figures show that TRX’s total revenue plunged to just $114,000 in a single day. That number sits at a four‑year low. Network fees in TRON come from “bandwidth” and “energy,” so when users batch transfers or switch to zero‑fee bridges, fee income collapses fast. Based on data from DeFiLlama, total value locked on TRON protocols fell by 0.50% in 24 hours, a drop from $4.80 billion to $4.85 billion. That’s about $26 million walking out the door. While a half‑percent move might look small, it underlines a trend. Every million dollars that leaves makes it tougher for lending pools and yield farms to keep their rates up. Despite the outflows, TRX hasn’t broken key support levels yet. It still trades above areas that buyers defended in late spring. But if TVL keeps sliding and stablecoins continue to exit, we could see more pressure on the token’s price. Featured image from P2P.org, chart from TradingView

Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,450 zone. ETH is now back above $2,550 and might soon aim for more gains. Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $2,550 level. The price is trading above $2,575 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a short-term rising channel forming with support at $2,570 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it remains supported above the $2,520 zone in the near term. Ethereum Price Eyes More Gains Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,450 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price gained pace for a move above the $2,550 resistance zone and entered a positive zone. The bulls were able to push the price above the $2,620 resistance. However, there was no upside extension. A high was formed near $2,636 and the price corrected some gains. There was a move toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,373 swing low to the $2,636 high. Ethereum price is now trading above $2,560 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a short-term rising channel forming with support at $2,570 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $2,625 level. The next key resistance is near the $2,640 level. The first major resistance is near the $2,650 level. A clear move above the $2,650 resistance might send the price toward the $2,720 resistance. An upside break above the $2,720 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,750 resistance zone or even $2,800 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,620 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,570 level. The first major support sits near the $2,520 zone. A clear move below the $2,520 support might push the price toward the $2,500 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,420 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $2,350. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $2,520 Major Resistance Level – $2,620

Dogecoin has observed a rebound from the support line of a Parallel Channel. Here’s where the next target could lie, according to an analyst. Dogecoin Found Support At Lower Level Of This Channel In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about how the daily Dogecoin price is currently looking from the perspective of a technical analysis (TA) pattern. The pattern in question is a Parallel Channel, which forms whenever an asset’s price witnesses consolidation between two parallel trendlines. The upper line of the channel tracks successive highs, and the lower one lows. The cryptocurrency breaking out of either of these levels implies a continuation of the trend in that direction. A surge above the channel is a bullish signal, while a fall under it is a bearish one. There are three different types of Parallel Channels. The Ascending variation occurs when the trendlines are sloped upwards. That is, it represents a phase of consolidation to the upside. Similarly, the Descending type involves the asset going down with time. In the context of the current topic, the third and most common variant is of interest. This type signifies a phase of true sideways movement, with the channel being parallel to the time-axis. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the Parallel Channel that the 1-day price of Dogecoin has been moving inside for the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Dogecoin daily price recently saw a brief retest of the lower level of the Parallel Channel. This line of the pattern is generally considered a level of support, and indeed, it played this role during the recent retest as well by helping the memecoin to turn around. DOGE has since been on the way up. According to the analyst, the cryptocurrency is now targeting the $0.19 level, situated at the midway point of the Parallel Channel. In the event that Dogecoin can clear this level, it’s possible that the coin may set its sights on the $0.26 mark next. This price corresponds to the upper level of the pattern, which provided resistance to the memecoin on a couple of occasions in May. From the current exchange rate, a surge to this line would imply an increase of more than 50%. It now remains to be seen how the asset’s trajectory would look in the near future and whether the lines of the Parallel Channel would play any part. DOGE Price At the time of writing, Dogecoin is floating around $0.172, up over 7% in the last week.

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $107,500 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to continue higher above the $110,000 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $108,500 zone. The price is trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a short-term rising channel forming with support at $109,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $107,850 zone. Bitcoin Price Consolidates Gains Bitcoin price started a fresh increase after it settled above the $105,500 resistance. BTC cleared many hurdles near $107,000 to start a decent increase. The bulls pushed the price in a positive zone above the $108,000 level. The price even spiked above the $110,000 level before the bears appeared. A high was formed near $110,578 and the price is now consolidating gains near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $105,116 swing low to the $110,578 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a short-term rising channel forming with support at $109,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $110,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $110,500 level. A close above the $110,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $112,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $113,200 level. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $110,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $109,500 level and the channel’s trend line. The first major support is near the $108,800 level. The next support is now near the $107,850 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $105,116 swing low to the $110,578 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $106,400 support in the near term. The main support sits at $105,000, below which BTC might continue to move down. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $108,800, followed by $107,850. Major Resistance Levels – $110,000 and $110,500.

Ethereum (ETH) is up more than 8% over the past 48 hours, climbing from around $2,400 on July 1 to nearly $2,600 at the time of writing. The latest on-chain analysis reveals that both accumulation addresses and liquid staking volume are approaching all-time highs (ATH), fueling optimism that ETH’s price may soon follow. Ethereum Liquid Staking, Accumulation Addresses Nearing Historic Highs According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Carmelo_Aleman, Ethereum’s liquid staking activity has seen a notable increase since June 1. The total amount of ETH staked rose from 34.54 million to 35.52 million by June 30 – an increase of nearly one million ETH in just one month. As of July 1, ETH set a new record in liquid staking, reaching 35.56 million ETH. A closer look suggests that most accumulation addresses are linked to institutional investors, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and other large holders. Many of these investors choose to earn yield through liquid staking while waiting for substantial price appreciation. Among the biggest beneficiaries of this trend are decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols like Lido and Binance Liquid Staking, known for their scale and investor-friendly features. In addition to the rise in liquid staking, ETH accumulation addresses are also nearing record highs. As shown in the following ETH Cohort Study chart, these addresses grew 35.97% – from 16.72 million on June 1 to 22.74 million by June 30. For the uninitiated, Ethereum accumulation addresses are wallets that acquire and hold ETH without significant outgoing transactions, often excluding known exchange, miner, or smart contract addresses. These addresses typically signal long-term investor confidence, as they represent entities accumulating ETH without actively selling. Also worth highlighting is that the Realized Price of these accumulation addresses – their average acquisition cost – stood at $2,114 on July 1. As ETH trades at $2,593 at the time of writing, these accumulation addresses are sitting on a healthy profit of approximately 22.65%. ETH Primed For A Breakout? Technical analysis suggests that ETH could be poised for a breakout in the near term. In a recent post, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out that ETH appears ready to break out of a broadening wedge pattern on the weekly chart, with a potential upside target of $4,200. Institutional interest in Ethereum also appears to be strengthening. Notably, ETH may have found its own “MicroStrategy moment,” with Tom Lee and Joe Lubin revealing plans to accumulate significant ETH positions. That said, ETH must maintain support above the $2,200 level. A breakdown below this threshold could open the door for a drop to as low as $1,160. At press time, ETH is trading at $2,593, up 1.7% in the past 24 hours.

Litecoin (LTC) is back in the spotlight as bullish momentum sweeps across the crypto market. After months of volatility and sideways action, Litecoin is showing signs of strength, pushing above key technical levels and attracting fresh investor interest. The broader market recovery, fueled by optimism in Bitcoin and Ethereum, has created favorable conditions for altcoins to regain traction, and Litecoin could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Top analyst Carl Runefelt recently shared a technical analysis highlighting a major development: Litecoin has broken above a key level on the daily chart. This breakout is a critical technical signal, suggesting a potential trend reversal after weeks of consolidation and indecision. While resistance remains overhead, analysts believe that a confirmed reclaim of this level as support could trigger an expansive phase for LTC, opening the door to strong upside moves. As institutional interest in crypto grows and macroeconomic conditions stabilize, assets like Litecoin—known for speed, low fees, and high liquidity—may attract attention from traders and investors seeking asymmetric returns. With momentum on its side and market sentiment shifting, the coming days will be crucial to determine whether Litecoin can turn this breakout into a full-scale rally. Litecoin Bullish Momentum And ETF Hopes Fuel Rally Litecoin (LTC) is gaining bullish traction as price action strengthens and investor sentiment improves across the crypto market. Currently trading above $90, Litecoin has broken out of its downward trend, signaling renewed buying interest and technical strength. This move is particularly significant, given months of sideways consolidation and the broader market’s gradual recovery. According to Carl Runefelt, Litecoin has decisively broken above its descending resistance on the daily chart—a bullish technical setup that could pave the way for further gains. Runefelt believes the next target is $97.10, a level that, if reached and held, could mark the start of a new upward leg for LTC. The recent breakout has reignited interest in Litecoin’s medium-term prospects, especially as traders look for altcoins with momentum and untapped upside. Adding to the optimism is speculation surrounding a potential Litecoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). According to Bloomberg, the probability of approval for a Litecoin spot ETF by October 2 (local time) has risen to an impressive 95%. Such a product would offer institutional investors a new and regulated vehicle to gain exposure to LTC, potentially unlocking significant inflows. With favorable technicals and strong fundamentals aligning, Litecoin appears poised for a breakout. The coming days will be critical as bulls aim to confirm support above $90 and push toward the $97.10 resistance. If ETF approval expectations continue to build alongside broader market momentum, Litecoin could emerge as one of the top-performing altcoins of the current cycle. LTC Price Action: Key Levels To Reclaim Litecoin (LTC) is showing strong bullish momentum after breaking above a key descending resistance level on the daily chart. As seen in the chart, LTC surged over 4% in the last session, closing at $91.23. This breakout follows weeks of tight consolidation near the $85 zone and signals growing interest as market sentiment improves across the board. Price has now moved decisively above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which have acted as resistance in recent weeks. The next challenge lies at the 200-day moving average, currently near $98.50, which aligns closely with the analyst-projected target of $97.10. Reclaiming that level would confirm a full trend reversal and open the door to testing the $100 psychological level. Volume has also picked up, supporting the breakout and suggesting that buyers are stepping in. If bulls maintain momentum and consolidate above $90, Litecoin could confirm a shift in market structure and set the stage for a broader rally. On the downside, any rejection at the 200-day MA could trigger a retest of the $87–$89 support area. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The Dogecoin price may be setting up for a significant rally as a technical analyst identifies a bullish breakout above the 50-day trendline. After months of compressed price action, the meme coin now appears poised to conclude its downtrend, igniting fresh optimism within the crypto community. Dogecoin Price Set For Game-Changing Rally Trader Tardigrade, a crypto market analyst, announced in an X (formerly Twitter) post on July 1 that the Dogecoin price has just broken above a critical 50-day descending trendline on its daily chart. With this new development, the analyst anticipates the potential start of a powerful upward price movement soon. Notably, the trendline breakout marks a significant shift in momentum for Dogecoin, which had been locked in a consistent downtrend over several weeks. The leading meme coin is currently trading at $0.17, having declined by almost 10% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap. With the potential end of this market downturn in sight, Trader Tardigrade suggests that DOGE’s microstructure is now beginning to show early signs of a bullish reversal pattern. In his price chart, the analyst notes that Dogecoin established a higher low, followed by a higher high after its breakout above the long-standing trendline. More recently, a second higher low has formed, reinforcing the possibility that a new uptrend is underway. This structure, characterized by successively higher highs and lows, is often seen as the earliest confirmation that buyers could be regaining control of the market. The breakout is also especially significant because it follows an extended period of lower lows and lower highs, with the 50-day trendline acting as a strong resistance barrier throughout. With that resistance now breached and early signs of a bullish market structure developing, Trader Tardigrade is increasingly optimistic about Dogecoin’s near-term prospects. If the current trend persists, it could signal the start of a sustained rally for the meme coin. Analyst Says Dogecoin Below $0.2 Is Free In a separate analysis, market expert Kaleo disclosed that Dogecoin’s current price below $0.20 presents a strong accumulation opportunity, implying that the meme coin is significantly undervalued when compared to its potential upside. Backing his view with a chart, the analyst projected that the Dogecoin price may be on the verge of a major breakout, with possible upside targets indicating a surge toward $1.5 and possibly beyond $ 3.50. Kaleo’s chart analysis highlights strong similarities between Dogecoin’s current market structure, following the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, and the 2020 breakout that preceded the meme coin’s historic bull run. In 2020, Dogecoin traded sideways within a Falling Wedge pattern for months before a breakout triggered a parabolic surge to fresh ATHs. The current price action exhibits a nearly identical setup, with the meme coin now emerging from a similar multi-year Falling Wedge, potentially setting the stage for another historic bull rally.

In a recent post on X, Michael Steinbach highlighted that Toncoin’s current price is at $2.80, which he considers one of the most exciting levels of the year. With momentum building, Steinbach noted that traders everywhere are now asking the same question: Is a breakout finally underway, or is a sharp sell-off just around the corner? Toncoin Locked In A Narrow Range Between $2.70 And $2.80 Analyzing the daily chart, Michael Steinbach points out that Toncoin has been locked in a tight range between $2.70 as support and $2.80 as resistance for several weeks now. He warns that jumping into the market without a clear plan is a recipe for losses, especially when others are already navigating these well-defined zones with precision. He highlights the RSI sitting at 39, a relatively weak position. While it’s not yet in oversold territory, Steinbach notes that buyers may be holding off for deeper levels. Back in April, a strong rebound occurred from below 30, making the 30–32 zone a critical area to watch for potential bullish reactions. In terms of risk, Steinbach warns that a break below the $2.70 support could hand control over to the bears. If that level fails, the next downside targets to watch are $2.50 and, in a worst-case scenario, $2.00. He reminds traders that repeated tests of a support zone tend to weaken it over time, and when it finally cracks, the fallout can come fast. Whether watching for a breakout or a breakdown, having a plan is essential. Reacting after the crowd moves rarely pays off; it’s the calm, pre-planned decisions that give traders the edge when volatility strikes. Breakout Or Pullback? Define The Setup Before Entering In outlining the bullish scenario, the analyst noted that if Toncoin manages to secure a daily close above the $2.80 resistance, momentum could quickly follow through. This breakout could open the path toward $3.00, with an extended target near $3.40, representing a potential 26% gain from current levels. That’s the kind of upside savvy traders prepare for. So, what’s the key takeaway? According to the analyst, successful trading doesn’t rely on gut feeling; it requires well-defined triggers. That means either entering on a confirmed breakout above $2.80 with a stop-loss just below, or stepping back and waiting for a pullback that aligns with RSI signals. The focus should always be on minimizing risk while allowing profits room to grow. As for now, the analyst sees the trend as sideways to slightly bearish. Until the chart sends a crystal-clear signal, the best approach is patience — no FOMO trades, no blind bets, just disciplined setups.

An elderly American couple could stand trial in France for their roles in the sale of gold bars plundered from a trading ship that sank off the coast of Brittany nearly 300 years ago. According to Agence France-Presse, French prosecutors have moved to charge 80‑year‑old novelist Eleonor “Gay” Courter and her 82‑year‑old husband Philip, alleging that they had facilitated the sale of gold ingots stolen by a French diver over a 23-year period. The charges come after investigators discovered that the elderly couple held possession of at least 23 stolen gold bars and sold 18 of them online—through a California auction house and eBay—fetching a total of $192,000. Stolen gold resurfaces The gold ingots are believed to originate from the Prince de Conty, a French East India Company vessel that sank during a storm. Its wreck was located in 1974, and official salvages in the 1980s recovered Chinese porcelain, tea chests and three gold bars, before operations were halted after a storm in 1985. More than three decades later, in 2018, France’s marine archaeology authority, led by Michel L’Hour, became suspicious when five ingots with striking resemblance to those from the Prince de Conty surfaced at a US auction. Local authorities later seized the gold and returned it to France in 2022. The Courters claimed that the gold they had sold online was legally gifted to them in the 1980s by their French friends—Annette and the late Gérard Pesty—who said the ingots were recovered by Yves Gladu, an underwater photographer turned treasure hunter and Annette’s brother‑in‑law. In 2022, Gladu admitted to taking 16 gold bars from the wreck during about 40 dives between 1976 and 1999 after being taken to custody, but denied ever having given any of them to the Courters. The same year, authorities also detained the Courters in England after tracing them via online listings and a 1999 Antiques Roadshow appearance by Annette Pesty showing the gold bars. The couple were initially detained but later released on bail; they declined extradition and returned to the US following a Zoom hearing before a French magistrate. In their defense, the Courters say they were unaware of any wrongdoing, believing the gold was properly obtained under different US rules. Their French attorney, Grégory Lévy, told AFP they had no criminal intent and did not personally profit from the sale. Prosecutors have now referred the matter to a criminal court, setting the stage for a landmark trial that could stretch legal definitions across jurisdictions.

Long‑term holders of Bitcoin may need to see a fresh high around $140,000 before they enjoy the same kind of profits they saw earlier this cycle. According to CryptoQuant, that price point lines up with past peaks in realized gains for those who have kept their coins untouched for at least six months. ‘Market Magnet’ Theory CryptoQuant used the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to track how deep in profit holders are right now. Based on reports, the average realized profit for long‑term holders stands at about 220%. That sounds healthy. But in March and December 2024, holders were sitting on roughly 300% and 350% gains, respectively. The gap between today’s 220% and those earlier highs is what Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor, calls a form of “market magnet.” Many are calling for $140,000 BTC so that unrealized profits match the cycle’s top levels. Profit‑Taking Trends Long‑term investors have been selling as Bitcoin flirts with new highs. Recent data shows that these holders have driven much of the selling pressure in the past few weeks. The average cost basis for this group — the realized price — is near $33,800. That means anyone buying before six months ago would need Bitcoin to reach $33,800 just to break even. And to hit the profit levels of March and December 2024, BTC must climb to $140,000. This dynamic pushes some traders to lock in gains early, while others hold on for bigger moves. Super Majority Still In The Green Based on reports, a super majority of Bitcoin investors are sitting on unrealized profits worth a combined $2.5 trillion. That number reflects the overall strength of the market’s recent rally. Even so, many investors remain confident that fresh buying can soak up any waves of profit‑taking. The current phase feels like a pause. Buyers and sellers are sizing each other up. The question now is whether demand will pick up enough to drive that magnet‑level price. Cycle Outlook And Next Steps Analysts said that Bitcoin looks ready for a post‑breakout retest after breaking a multi‑week downtrend that began in mid‑May. They added that the bull run might only have several months left before a final surge and then a change in trend. If this view holds, that final push could be the moment when BTC nears or even hits $140,000. After that, history suggests a sharp peak and then a cool-down. Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView

🏦 Compras de Ouro por Bancos Centrais Reaceleram em Maio de 2025: Sinal de Desdolarização Estrutural? Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado e Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School | Análises Institucionais para Traders 📊 Destaques do Mês: Bancos Centrais Adicionam 20 Toneladas Líquidas em Maio Os bancos centrais adicionaram um total líquido de 20 toneladas (t) às reservas globais de ouro em maio de 2025, marcando uma leve aceleração em relação ao mês anterior, embora ainda abaixo da média de 12 meses de 27 t. As tensões geopolíticas crescentes no Oriente Médio contribuíram para manter o ouro como ativo estratégico nas reservas soberanas. Principais Compradores: 🇰🇿 Cazaquistão: +7 t (acumulando 15 t em 2025) 🇹🇷 Turquia: +6 t (15 t no acumulado do ano) 🇵🇱 Polônia: +6 t (líder de 2025 com 67 t) 🇨🇳 China e 🇨🇿 Rep. Tcheca: +2 t cada 🇰🇬🇰🇭🇵🇭🇬🇭 Quirguistão, Camboja, Filipinas e Gana: +1 t cada Principais Vendedores: 🇸🇬 Singapura (MAS): -5 t (total de -10 t no ano) 🇺🇿 Uzbequistão: -1 t (total de -27 t no ano) 🇩🇪 Bundesbank: -1 t (venda técnica para cunhagem de moedas) 🧠 Sentimento Estrutural: A Visão dos Próprios Bancos Centrais A Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2025, recentemente divulgada, oferece um retrato claro da postura global das autoridades monetárias: 📈 Expectativa de Acúmulo Continuado: 95% dos entrevistados acreditam que as reservas oficiais de ouro vão continuar aumentando nos próximos 12 meses (vs. 81% em 2024). 43% afirmaram que pretendem aumentar suas próprias reservas, o maior nível da série histórica. 💬 Principais razões citadas: Diversificação frente à concentração em dólar Proteção contra inflação e riscos sistêmicos Cobertura contra choques geopolíticos 🔁 Mudança Estrutural na Alocação de Reservas: 76% projetam que o ouro terá participação moderadamente ou significativamente maior nos portfólios em até 5 anos. 73% esperam redução da exposição ao dólar americano no mesmo horizonte. 🌍 Ouro vs. Dólar: A Guerra Silenciosa das Reservas Os dados refletem uma mudança estrutural no sistema monetário global, com países emergentes (EMDEs) como China, Polônia, Turquia e Cazaquistão liderando a alocação para ouro, enquanto a relevância do dólar como ativo de reserva sofre erosão gradual. 💡 Leitura Estratégica ExpertFX School 🟡 Ouro (XAU/USD) O fluxo contínuo de compras institucionais cria um piso estrutural nos preços do ouro. Mesmo com ajustes técnicos de curto prazo, o cenário macro aponta para valorização sustentada, especialmente se os cortes de juros do Fed forem intensificados. 🇺🇸 Política Monetária do Fed A aceleração da compra de ouro em meio à discussão de cortes de juros e desaceleração econômica reflete perda de credibilidade do dólar como reserva de valor. Expectativas de juros mais baixos no segundo semestre favorecem ativos reais. 📉 Dólar (DXY) A redução projetada na alocação global em USD pressiona o índice do dólar no médio prazo. Ainda que o DXY se sustente por fluxos de aversão a risco, o enfraquecimento estrutural é uma tendência em curso. 🌐 Geopolítica As compras de ouro por bancos centrais aumentam em momentos de tensão internacional, como os conflitos no Oriente Médio. O ouro serve como hedge estratégico em caso de sanções, guerras ou congelamentos de ativos em dólar. 📌 Conclusão ExpertFX School A leitura institucional dos dados de maio reforça que o ouro é hoje o ativo soberano mais desejado do mundo, num contexto de: Inflação persistente nos EUA e Europa Perda de hegemonia do dólar Reconfiguração geoeconômica liderada por China, Rússia e emergentes Fragilidade estrutural de títulos soberanos americanos (Treasuries) O trader ou investidor atento deve observar: Fluxo contínuo de compras por bancos centrais como sinal macro de alta no XAU/USD no médio/longo prazo (trimestral). Correlação com os cortes de juros do Fed nos próximos trimestres Reposicionamento de portfólios institucionais em direção a ativos reais e commodities monetárias 📢 Siga a ExpertFX School para relatórios exclusivos sobre ouro, dólar, Federal Reserve e desdolarização. Análises macroeconômicas e visão institucional para posicionamento estratégico.

🏠 A Crise de Acessibilidade Habitacional nos EUA: Por Que os Americanos Não Estão Comprando Casas em 2025? Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado e Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School | Análises Institucionais para Traders 📉 O Maior Descolamento da Acessibilidade Imobiliária em 35 Anos A proporção entre o custo mensal da hipoteca (incluindo principal, juros, impostos e seguro) e a renda mediana nos EUA atingiu 39,7% em junho de 2025, o maior patamar desde o início da série histórica em 1990. A média de longo prazo é de 29%, e durante a crise imobiliária de 2008 essa proporção chegou a apenas 22%. 🔎 A Profundidade do Problema: Não Basta Cortar Juros Muitos analistas acreditam que a simples queda nas taxas de juros hipotecárias traria alívio. Contudo, segundo simulações feitas pelo analista Igor Pereira, isso está longe da realidade: Cada corte de 0,50 p.p. nas taxas reduz a razão de pagamento/renda em apenas 1,5 p.p. Em contrapartida, uma queda de 5% no preço das casas reduz a razão em 2,0 p.p. Portanto, para retornar à acessibilidade histórica de 30%: As taxas de hipoteca precisariam cair de 7% para 5,3%, e Os preços dos imóveis precisariam cair 15%. Essa combinação exigiria um grande corte de juros pelo Fed (algo em torno de 200 bps), recessão técnica ou deterioração aguda da economia. 📊 Sinais de Demanda em Colapso A percepção da população acompanha os dados: 84% dos americanos acreditam que é um mau momento para comprar uma casa, o nível mais pessimista já registrado. Vendas existentes caíram 25% em relação ao padrão pré-pandemia. Vendas pendentes recuaram 31%. Pedidos de hipotecas para compra despencaram entre 29% e 47% comparado a 2018-2022. 🧮 Simulação: Quando a Acessibilidade Voltaria? Queda nos Preços Taxa Hipotecária Razão Pagamento/Renda Estimada -15% 5,3% 30,0% (nível histórico) -10% 5,8% 32,0% 0% 7,0% 39,8% (nível atual) -5% 6,5% 36,3% 📌 Conclusão: Pequenos cortes de juros não resolvem. A única forma de restaurar a acessibilidade é via queda expressiva nos preços dos imóveis, algo que apenas ocorre com recessão, desemprego ou aperto fiscal prolongado. 🌎 Quais os Impactos no Mercado Financeiro? 🏦 Federal Reserve O Fed segue pressionado por Trump a cortar juros agressivamente. Com dados fracos de emprego e inflação moderada, há espaço técnico para iniciar o ciclo de cortes já em julho. O problema habitacional será um dos argumentos centrais para justificar afrouxamento monetário. 💵 Dólar Americano (DXY) Cortes de juros tendem a enfraquecer o dólar. No entanto, a fuga para segurança (em caso de crash imobiliário) pode momentaneamente sustentar o índice. 🪙 Ouro (XAU/USD) Um cenário de cortes de juros, recessão e deterioração de ativos reais (como imóveis) fortalece o ouro como ativo de proteção. Expectativa de valorização do XAU/USD nos próximos trimestres. 📉 Setor Imobiliário e Ações Correlacionadas (REITs, bancos) Alta inadimplência em hipotecas pode pressionar bancos regionais. Construtoras e fundos imobiliários listados tendem a sofrer com correção de preços. 📍 Estados com Queda de Preços Acelerada Segundo o Zillow, 32 estados registraram queda nos preços residenciais em maio de 2025. As maiores quedas (de 0,4% a 0,6% no mês) ocorreram em: Califórnia Texas Arizona Flórida Estados do Noroeste do Pacífico (como Oregon e Washington) Se anualizadas, essas quedas representam desvalorizações entre 5% e 7% ao ano. ✅ Conclusão ExpertFX School O mercado imobiliário americano vive uma crise silenciosa, mas estrutural. A desconexão entre preços de imóveis, renda e custo de financiamento chegou a um ponto insustentável. O trader ou investidor atento deve monitorar: Próxima decisão do Fed (julho/setembro); Dados de emprego e inflação; Tendência de inadimplência hipotecária; Correlação com ativos defensivos (ouro, Treasuries). 📢 Acompanhe a ExpertFX School para insights diários sobre macroeconomia, ouro (XAU/USD), política monetária e ciclos imobiliários.

Ethereum has regained strong bullish momentum over the past few days, rising more than 23% since June 22 and reclaiming the critical $2,600 level. After weeks of uncertainty and sideways movement, ETH is showing signs of strength, with bulls now eyeing a push toward the $2,700 resistance zone. A successful reclaim of this level could open the doors for a broader rally, potentially reigniting hopes for the long-awaited altseason. While volatility remains in the broader market, Ethereum’s recovery has been notable, especially as macroeconomic sentiment improves and risk appetite increases across both equities and crypto. The surge in price has brought renewed attention to ETH’s long-term outlook, with top analyst Ted Pillows stating that “ETH is looking good and going above $10,000 this cycle.” This bold projection reflects growing confidence among market participants that Ethereum still holds major upside potential, particularly as network fundamentals strengthen and institutional interest grows. With the $2,700 level acting as the next critical resistance, all eyes are on whether Ethereum can maintain its momentum and set the stage for the next leg higher. The coming days will be essential in confirming whether this rally has staying power or remains short-lived. Ethereum Faces Critical Test As Altcoin Market Watches Closely After a week of volatility, Ethereum surged 9% yesterday, pushing closer to the top of its long-standing range and signaling the potential for a major breakout. Trading between $2,200 and $2,800 since early May, ETH has now returned to the upper end of this consolidation zone. Market participants believe this could be the turning point, not just for Ethereum, but for the entire altcoin market. Ethereum remains the backbone of the altcoin ecosystem, and its price action has historically dictated the momentum of the broader crypto space. A decisive move above $2,800 could trigger a wave of breakouts across major altcoins, many of which remain suppressed under key resistance levels. While short-term volatility remains a concern, analysts argue that Ethereum is showing strong signs of resilience and accumulation. Ted Pillows shared his technical perspective, urging traders to stay focused on the bigger picture: “Don’t let short-term volatility scare you.” According to him, Ethereum will surpass $10,000 this cycle. His view reflects growing confidence among experienced investors who see Ethereum’s current structure as a launchpad for the next expansion phase. With Ethereum at a critical technical juncture and altcoins waiting for confirmation, the coming days could be pivotal. A breakout above $2,800 would validate growing bullish sentiment and potentially spark the long-anticipated altseason. ETH Tests 200-Day MA After Breakout Ethereum is showing renewed strength after reclaiming the $2,600 level and closing above all major moving averages on the daily chart. As seen in the image, ETH surged through the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which had been acting as dynamic resistance near $2,516. This marks a significant technical milestone, indicating bullish momentum may be returning. The breakout candle is backed by rising volume, a positive sign that the move is supported by real market participation. If ETH can hold above the 200-day MA, the next critical level to watch is $2,700 — the top of the range that has held since early May. A decisive close above $2,700 would open the door for further gains, potentially testing the $2,900–$3,000 resistance zone. Support remains near the $2,500 level, where the 50-day and 100-day MAs converge, offering a strong confluence zone should any pullback occur. If bulls can maintain momentum and hold above the moving average cluster, the odds of a larger trend reversal increase. Ethereum’s current setup appears constructive, and market participants are closely watching for continuation, especially as macro sentiment improves and altcoin strength begins to return. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

According to a new analysis shared by crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, Bitcoin has just closed the quarterly chart with a perfected TD9 sell setup. This is actually interesting, because it adds a possibly long timeline before Bitcoin can reach any further significant price target. Most of Bitcoin’s daily candles in the past seven days have shown mild upward pressure supported by positive sentiment from various technical analyses. However, according to the TD9 setup, Bitcoin could take up to four years to reach $149,000. TD9 Setup Hints At Slow Climb To $149,000 The TD9 is a component of the TD Sequential indicator, which is often used to identify trend exhaustion, potential reversals, and possible trend changes. Interestingly, what makes this particular signal notable at this point is that it is now projecting a TD Risk level of $149,490, which is essentially a price target for Bitcoin. But if past patterns on the TD9 indicator are anything to go by, getting there might take much longer than bulls expect. In 2017, a similar perfected TD9 appeared during Bitcoin’s first rally to $20,000. At the time, the TD Risk was projected at $35,000. It wasn’t until late 2020, roughly four years later, that Bitcoin finally reached and broke above that level. A prior occurrence in 2014 offered the same story. Back then in 2014, the TD9 setup projected a TD Risk of $2,400, but it took approximately 3.5 years to cross that threshold. Now, despite the bullish sentiment today, this historical precedent suggests it could take similar years before the $149,490 target being currently projected by the TD Risk is finally tested or breached. The 3-month candlestick price chart shown above provides a visual analysis of this projection. From the 2014 cycle low, it took 915 days across 10 quarterly candles for Bitcoin to reach its next high. After the 2017 signal, it took 1,096 days (or 12 quarterly candlesticks) for BTC to finally surpass the projected TD Risk level. Bitcoin Price Action On Gradual Climb Bitcoin has spent the past seven days in a steady but modest uptrend, rising approximately 1.5% from a weekly low around $105,430 to the current range between $109,240 and $109,600. During this move, Bitcoin’s price action tested and retested resistance in the $108,200 to $108,800 zone several times in the past 24 hours. However, it ultimately pushed higher, showing a slow but stable bullish undertone. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,330, up by 2% in the past 24 hours. It is currently about a 36% move away from reaching the $149,490 price target. However, if Tony Severino’s timeline on the TD9 Risk setup does play out, it wouldn’t be until sometime around July 2029 before Bitcoin reaches the $149,490 price target.

Marimaca Copper (TSX: MARI; ASX: MC2) shares soared to a new 15-year high Thursday on the release of copper sulphide drill results as high as 6 metres grading 12% copper at its Pampa Medina project in northern Chile. That intercept, drilled from 594 metres depth in hole SMRD-13, included 26 metres at 4.1% copper and 100 metres grading 1.3% copper, Marimaca said in a statement. Another hole, SMD-02, cut 132 metres at 1% copper from 278 metres, including 40 metres grading 2.1% copper. The project is about 25 km west of the company’s main Marimaca Oxide Deposit (MOD) and 1,250 km north of the capital Santiago. “Game changer, particularly for the sulphide intercepts,” Canaccord Genuity analyst Dalton Baretto said in a note. “The Pampa Medina discovery could be very synergistic with the main Marimaca Oxide Deposit, given [its] proximity and the ability to share infrastructure [and] we see options for a larger project and a longer mine life (and perhaps even a potential relocation of infrastructure should this project prove up at scale).“ The thick, high-grade intercepts offer the potential for a much larger scale copper system, Marimaca President and CEO Hayden Locke said in a release. “These results add a new dimension to our strategy and, we believe, strengthen our potential to be a globally significant copper producer in time,” he said. Upcoming feasibility The Vancouver-based company is working on a feasibility study for its main MOD project, expected to be released by the fourth quarter. Just one month ago, it received C$24.4 million in private placement financing to fund the study. However, a previously planned preliminary economic assessment for Pampa Medina is to be paused while the company assesses the drill results. Marimaca shares surged 25% to a new 15-year high of C$9.09 apiece Thursday at mid-afternoon, for a market capitalization of C$967.95 million. Another significant result at Pampa Medina includes hole SMRD-12, which cut 56 metres grading 1.4% copper from 566 metres depth. Infrastructure advantages Pampa Medina’s infrastructural context offers particular benefits for the project, including proximity to other mines and its low altitude and relatively flat surroundings which could provide sufficient space for potential facilities. The port of Mejillones is also about 25 km west, Marimaca said. About 40 km southwest is Capstone Copper’s (TSX: CS; ASX: CSC) Mantos Blancos project and Antofagasta Minerals’ (LSE: ANTO) Cachorro project is about 40 km to the northeast. South32’s (ASX: S32) Sierra Gorda project is 64 km east, and just northeast of that is BHP’s (NYSE, LSE, ASX: BHP) Spence mine. The company’s ongoing drill program comprises 10,000 meters across 14 diamond holes, and is aimed at defining the limits of the prospective sedimentary units at Pampa Medina.

The United States continues to demonstrate why it remains the largest and most powerful economy in the world, consistently surprising markets with its resilience in the past few data releases. While market participants have been eager to question US strength—especially under President Trump’s “US Exceptionalism” policy, which many feared could backfire—recent economic data continues to challenge that narrative. Despite ongoing concerns over diplomatic volatility and declining business confidence, the US economy once again delivered upside surprises. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected at 110K, surprised with a +37K beat, and the more influential ISM Services PMI came in strong—reaffirming underlying economic momentum. As a result, the US Dollar is regaining its footing. The Dollar Index (DXY) is up approximately 0.35% on the session, and even with an early close ahead of Independence Day, USDJPY surged 1300 pips on the heels of the release. Read More: US Equities in a frenzy, bolstered by ISM and NFP beats Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Dogecoin was changing hands near $0.174 in European trading on Thursday, extending a two-day rebound that began when buyers twice defended the mid-June floor around $0.16. The 11% recovery since the Tuesday low has put the largest memecoin back on traders’ radars, but technical analyst More Crypto Online cautions that what looks like an impulsive burst is in fact “all corrective in nature,” with the market still trapped inside a complex diagonal wave pattern that could just as easily fail. Dogecoin Is Quietly Coiling For A Potential Breakout In a video update recorded on 2 June, the analyst dissected the one-hour chart and concluded that the advance from the 22 June low is best counted as a three-wave move. “Because wave 1 … was only a three-wave move, the third wave should unfold as an ABC structure,” he said, underscoring that the rally lacks the five-wave DNA of a trend reversal. Even so, as long as Dogecoin defends what he called a “micro-support area between $0.16 and $0.166,” the diagonal remains valid and a measured target at $0.196—the 138 percent Fibonacci extension of wave 1—“remains plausible.” The roadmap is conditional. First, the current A-wave has to finish; then a corrective B-wave should follow, “and in the C-wave we could then rally to round about $0.196.” A probe toward $0.182 before that pullback cannot be ruled out, but the analyst warned viewers not to assume a straight shot higher. “Please be aware that we could be dealing with very choppy and messy structures,” he said. If bulls do force a full five-wave climb from the July swing low, that sequence would mark the first leg of a larger five-wave advance—a textbook signal that the broader down-trend from Dogecoin’s March peak may finally be exhausted. Failure to hold $0.16, however, would invalidate the diagonal count and expose the June lows near $0.151, where on-chain data show a thin layer of spot bids and little derivative support. Market context is mixed. CoinGecko data show Dogecoin’s 24-hour turnover has topped $1.5 billion, roughly in line with last week’s average, while the memecoin’s correlation with Bitcoin has weakened to 0.62, its lowest reading since early May. In the short term, though, all eyes are on the $0.16 band. As More Crypto Online summed up, “The diagonal pattern basically remains plausible as long as we’re holding that $0.16 level.” Should that floor survive the inevitable B-wave turbulence, Dogecoin’s “quiet setup” might indeed detonate shortly—propelling the token toward $0.196 and potentially signalling a more durable trend change. Notably, the upper boundary of Dogecoin’s long-running descending channel in the daily chart, now situated near $0.20, lines up almost exactly with More Crypto Online’s bullish target. A decisive breakout through this confluence would not only pierce the ceiling that has capped prices since the December 8 high at $0.4843 but could also validate the analyst’s call for a trend reversal. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.174.