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Ethereum price started a fresh recovery above $4,050. ETH is now showing positive signs and might rise further toward the $4,350 level. Ethereum started a recovery wave above the $4,000 and $4,020 levels. The price is trading above $4,050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,980 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it trades above $4,200. Ethereum Price Holds Support Ethereum price started a recovery wave above the $3,950 level, like Bitcoin. ETH price formed a base and was able to recover above the $4,000 level. The price cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,290 swing high to the $3,890 low. The bulls were able to push the price above the $4,120 pivot level. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,980 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,100 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,140 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,200 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,290 swing high to the $3,890 low. The first major resistance is near the $4,290 level. A clear move above the $4,290 resistance might send the price toward the $4,380 resistance. An upside break above the $4,380 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,450 resistance zone or even $4,500 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,200 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,000 level and the trend line. The first major support sits near the $3,880 zone. A clear move below the $3,880 support might push the price toward the $3,820 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,750 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,640. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,000 Major Resistance Level – $4,200

Dogecoin fell sharply on Tuesday, losing a quarter of its value and retreating to the $0.19 mark after a recent run of gains ran out of steam. Traders said the move followed a failure to hold above the $0.23–$0.24 range and a break below a short-term rising channel that had been supporting prices earlier in October. Technical Weakness Deepens The price action on the daily chart points to weakening momentum. Dogecoin could not defend $0.22, and that breach opened the door to faster selling that sent the token to its lowest level in over three weeks. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs sit around $0.23 and are now acting as overhead resistance. The Parabolic SAR has flipped to a bearish signal, which many traders see as confirmation that the recent uptrend has paused. If buyers cannot steady the market above $0.20, a deeper drop may test the $0.17–$0.18 band — a zone where a lot of accumulation occurred in late summer. A clear break under that area would put the $0.12 handle back in focus. On the upside, reclaiming $0.22 would be the first sign buyers are trying to push prices back up and could open a move toward $0.25. On-Chain Flows Signal Caution According to exchange flow data, a sizable amount of DOGE left trading platforms on October 14. Reports show over close to $57 million exited exchanges that day. Heavy outflows like that are often seen when holders move tokens off exchanges to custody or when distribution is taking place, and in this case market participants interpreted the flows as more aligned with selling pressure than fresh buying. Social media buzz over Dogecoin’s prospects has not translated into sustained inflows, and the meme coin group as a whole has felt weaker in recent sessions. House Of Doge Merger Draws Attention In the meantime, in light of recent volatility and disappointing overall market conditions, the House of Doge announced plans to merge with Brag House Holdings Inc., which aims to create a public vehicle in the Dogecoin ecosystem. The combination of the companies will reportedly have 837 million DOGE along with $50 million in cash for investments. The announcement briefly lifted sentiment online, but price gains were short-lived as broader market weakness weighed on the token. The merged group plans to pursue tokenization, yield products, and payment tools, and its backers say the plan could bring more institutional interest to Dogecoin. Near-Term Outlook Hinges On $0.20 Short-term traders say $0.20 now acts as both structural and psychological support for DOGE. A sustained defense there could invite speculative buying, but without stronger liquidity moving into the market, any recovery may stall below the $0.23–$0.24 zone. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price corrected losses and traded above the $115,000 level. BTC is now struggling and might start another decline below $110,000. Bitcoin started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the $116,000 resistance level. The price is trading below $115,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $118,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $110,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $112,000 resistance level. BTC recovered above the $112,500 and $113,200 resistance levels. The price climbed above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $122,498 swing high to the $100,000 low. The bulls even pushed the price above the $115,000 resistance level. However, there are many hurdles on the upside. Bitcoin is now trading below $115,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $118,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $114,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $115,000 level. The next resistance could be $116,000. A close above the $116,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $117,200 resistance and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $122,498 swing high to the $100,000 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $117,250 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $118,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $116,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $111,800 level. The first major support is near the $110,500 level. The next support is now near the $110,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $108,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $107,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $111,800, followed by $110,500. Major Resistance Levels – $115,000 and $116,000.

GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair opened on Tuesday with a sharp decline. This time, the market had legitimate reasons to sell the British pound: UK unemployment data and jobless claims came in well below expectations. Unemployment continues to rise, which on its own is negative for the economy. Beyond that, the Bank of England may consider restarting monetary easing due to weakness in the labor market. In short, Tuesday morning brought bad news for the pound. In the second half of the day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell came to the pound's aid. It's still unknown what exactly Powell said, but demand for the U.S. dollar began to drop sharply during his remarks. Regardless, the pound should have been strengthening anyway, having broken the descending trendline on Monday. As it turned out, the pair broke out only to fall again. So far, sterling has had little luck, as the market continues to price in only dollar-supportive factors. We still interpret the current decline as illogical and expect the resumption of the 2025 uptrend. On the 5-minute chart, there was an opportunity to open short positions early in the morning. The price rebounded from the Kijun-sen line and later broke through the 1.3307 level. However, bears failed to reach the nearest target at 1.3212. A reversal followed during the U.S. session, and the price quickly returned to 1.3307. As a result, any profit on the single trade would have required a manual close. COT Report Commitments of Traders (COT) reports on the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has constantly shifted in recent years. The red and blue lines representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders continually intersect and typically hover near the zero level. Currently, they are almost equal, indicating a balanced amount of long and short positions. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken due to the policy of Donald Trump. Therefore, market makers' interest in sterling is currently of lesser importance. The trade war in one form or another will persist for a long time. The Fed will likely cut interest rates in the coming year. Demand for the U.S. dollar is expected to wane. According to the latest report, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 long contracts and closed 900 short contracts. As a result, the net position increased by 4,600 contracts over the reporting week. In 2025, the pound experienced significant growth, but the primary reason remains U.S. policy under Trump. Once that factor fades, the dollar may resume strengthening, though no one can say when that will happen. The pace at which the pound's net position grows or shrinks doesn't matter much—what matters is that the dollar's position continues to weaken, and often at a faster rate. GBP/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to show a downtrend despite having previously broken the trendline. This is another sign of the illogic behind the current movement. The U.S. dollar still lacks long-term reasons to strengthen, so we expect the uptrend that started in 2025 to resume eventually. Under current circumstances, a breakout above the trendline and above the Kijun-sen line is required to confirm a new upward movement. For October 15, the following levels are important for trading: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B line (1.3424) and Kijun-sen line (1.3342) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to break-even once the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. Remember, Ichimoku lines are dynamic and will shift throughout the day, which should be considered when identifying trade setups. Wednesday is not expected to bring any major economic releases from either the UK or the U.S. As a result, traders will have little to react to—significantly lowering the chances for the pair to break through key technical lines and continue rising. Trading Recommendations:Today, traders can trade from the 1.3369-1.3377 range, from the 1.3307 level, or from the critical line. There are many levels and lines, but very few events today. A flat or simply low-volatility movement throughout the day is quite possible.Chart Legend:Support and resistance levels (thick red lines): Potential reversal zones, but not standalone trade signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines: Transposed Ichimoku indicator lines from the 4-hour chart to the hourly chart. Considered strong technical levels.Swing highs/lows (thin red lines): Previous reaction levels that may serve as trade signals.Yellow lines: Trendlines, channels, and other technical patterns.COT Chart Indicator 1: Represents net positions across trader categories.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair fluctuated throughout Tuesday. In the first half of the day, another decline was observed, potentially driven by weaker-than-expected ZEW economic sentiment indices from both Germany and the EU. In the second half of the day, the pair experienced a slight recovery, likely in response to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. It remains unclear what exactly Powell communicated to the markets, but in any case, the Fed is expected to maintain a generally dovish stance over the next one to two years. The only question is the pace at which the key interest rate will be lowered. Even the modest upward movement observed late Tuesday has not significantly changed the technical picture. From a technical standpoint, the price has now broken through a second consecutive descending trendline, suggesting the start of a potential new uptrend. As a reminder, there are no strong medium-term reasons for the dollar to strengthen, and its recent gains seem questionable considering the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. The pair managed to breach the critical line yesterday, increasing the probability of continued upward movement. On the 5-minute chart, no valid trading signals were formed during Tuesday's session. Only in the evening did the price reach the 1.1604–1.1615 zone and the Kijun-sen line, but it failed to consolidate above or rebound from these levels. As such, trade setups are likely to shift to Wednesday, though signals may also form overnight. COT Report The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report is dated September 23. As shown in the chart, the net position of non-commercial traders has mainly remained bullish. Bears barely gained the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, only the dollar has declined in value. While we cannot say with certainty that the U.S. currency will continue to fall, global developments suggest that this scenario may prevail. There are still a few fundamental drivers supporting the euro, but many factors could still weaken the dollar. The global downtrend is still intact—though its relevance after 17 years of history is debatable. The dollar might resume strengthening once Trump ends all trade wars, but recent developments suggest the conflict will persist in some form. A potential loss of Fed independence is another powerful bearish factor for the U.S. currency. The positioning of the red and blue lines continues to indicate that the bullish trend persists. During the most recent reporting week, the number of long positions held by the "non-commercial" group decreased by 800, while short positions rose by 2,600. Thus, the net position shrank by 3,400 contracts. EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair may have completed its recent downtrend last week. The trendline has been broken, so now the euro needs to consolidate above both the Kijun-sen line and the 1.1604–1.1615 resistance zone. If this happens, we may expect an upward move toward the Senkou Span B line. From a technical standpoint, the euro is overdue for a climb. For October 15, the following levels are relevant for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988. Also note the Ichimoku indicator lines: Senkou Span B (1.1687) and Kijun-sen (1.1595). These lines are dynamic and may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying trade signals. Don't forget to move the stop loss to break-even if the trade moves 15 pips in your favor—this helps minimize losses in the event of a false signal. On Wednesday, the Eurozone will publish its industrial production report. While not insignificant, it is not considered a high-impact release. No major macroeconomic events are scheduled in the U.S., which is unsurprising given the ongoing government shutdown. Trading Recommendations:On Wednesday, traders can once again trade based on the 1.1604–1.1615 level area. A confirmed breakout above the Kijun-sen line and this resistance zone would validate long positions with a target at 1.1657–1.1666. If this does not occur, the pair is likely to resume its decline toward 1.1534. Chart Legend:Support and resistance levels (thick red lines): Potential reversal zones, but not standalone trade signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines: Transposed Ichimoku indicator lines from the 4-hour chart to the hourly chart. Considered strong technical levels.Swing highs/lows (thin red lines): Previous reaction levels that may serve as trade signals.Yellow lines: Trendlines, channels, and other technical patterns.COT Chart Indicator 1: Represents net positions across trader categories.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elon Musk waded back into the money-meets-energy debate on X today, endorsing Bitcoin and Dogecoin. The Tesla CEO replied to a viral ZeroHedge thread that framed artificial intelligence as a government-funded arms race that will turbocharge monetary debasement. “True. That is why Bitcoin is based on energy: you can issue fake fiat currency, and every government in history has done so, but it is impossible to fake energy,” Musk wrote, aligning BTC’s value proposition with physical power constraints. Minutes later, when community account Sir Doge of the Coin (@dogeofficialceo) added, “Dogecoin is also based on energy,” Musk replied with a simple “,” his first explicit nod toward DOGE in a while, rekindling a long-running price-sensitivity question around his posts. The market reaction, however, was muted. As of press time, Dogecoin traded near $0.196, lower on the day alongside broader crypto risk, with Bitcoin and Ethereum also in the red. Bitcoin was down on the session near $111k, while Ethereum slipped below $4k, underscoring a risk-off tape that likely blunted any “Musk effect” impulse. Musk’s DOGE remarks arrive amid a separate swirl of Dogecoin-adjacent headlines that caught Washington’s and Wall Street’s attention over the last 48 hours. Representative Matt Gaetz amplified a viral thread, asking, “Is DOGE about to become the world’s great utility token? After being a meme?!” — a rhetorical riff that referenced news circulating about a planned public-markets pivot by House of Doge as the “corporate arm” of the Dogecoin Foundation. House of Doge intends to list on Nasdaq via a merger with Brag House Holdings under the ticker TBH, and they also tie House of Doge to a growing Dogecoin treasury effort at CleanCore Solutions, newly branded on the NYSE American as ZONE. The October 13 releases further assert that CleanCore now holds 730 million+ DOGE, targeting up to 1 billion DOGE in the near term and, longer-run, “up to 5%” of circulating supply. Why Hasn’t The Dogecoin Price Reacted Positively? Historically, Musk’s DOGE interactions have triggered sharp, if often fleeting, price responses. During late 2024, for example, a single “true” reply in a payments-context thread coincided with a pop as traders extrapolated X-payments tie-ins, and the October 2024 launch of a dedicated account for its payments initiative on X. More recently, in June 2025, DOGE jumped 3% after Musk defused a political spat. The common denominator: reflexive liquidity and headline-driven order flow that fades unless there’s a real impact on the meme coin. Today’s sequence fits that pattern — a high-engagement Musk quip, immediate social virality, but price constrained by macro tape and the absence of a concurrent, verifiable product or policy reveal. So why didn’t DOGE “go to the moon” on the ? First, the tape matters. With majors heavy, meme-beta typically underperforms. Second, the information content of the post is modest: Musk endorsed an energy-based framing and acknowledged a community meme — not a new X Payments feature, not a Tesla-commerce integration, not a tangible DOGE settlement rail. Markets have learned to differentiate between tone and transaction. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.19862.

The sudden and violent market correction triggered by geopolitical shockwaves served as an unprecedented stress test for the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, exposing critical differences in network architecture. While the multi-billion-dollar liquidation event sent prices plunging across the board, Solana demonstrated remarkable resilience, whereas the Ethereum network and liquidity thinned during the peak volatility. Why Solana High-Performance Design Continues To Shine In an X post, the Nasdaq-listed go-to Solana Digital Asset Treasury (DAT), DefDevCorp, has revealed that when the largest liquidation event in crypto history hit last Friday, most of the market froze, and Ethereum stumbled. However, Solana didn’t flinch, powering through one of the most chaotic trading sessions ever recorded. At the peak of volatility, Solana sustained 1,225 transactions per second, finalized blocks in just 350 milliseconds, and saw transaction fees briefly rise to $0.25 before normalizing below $0.01. Meanwhile, ETH’s infrastructure buckled under demand as the network struggled to process beyond 26 TPS. Its block times extended to 15 seconds, and saw average gas fees explode to $616, effectively locking out users and rendering the chain unusable during the crisis. ETH became unreliable, impractical, and effectively unusable during the chaos. As DefiDevCorp noted, when users are priced out and transactions can’t clear, the network might as well be offline. In moments of high load, the core promise of a blockchain to remain accessible, affordable, and reliable must hold. However, after nearly 20 months of uninterrupted uptime, weathering its busiest moments, it’s abundantly clear that SOL’s continued upgrades and optimizations have paid off dramatically. DefiDevCorp concluded that no other chain currently comes close to handling global value transfer at this scale, under such extreme conditions, with the same level of performance. The takeaway from the firm’s post is that only SOL stays fast, cheap, and usable, even when global markets melt down. Why SOL Price Doesn’t Match Its Reliability A Researcher at alphapleaseHQ and Advisor at KaminoFinance, Aylo, has also mentioned that he had assets and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) positions open on both Solana and Ethereum when the crypto market collapsed last Friday. During this time, he had zero issues using the SOL network, while the ETH network was unusable due to the costs, which often led to market crashes, and the Rabby wallet also went down. Aylo added that the ETH maxis should be much angrier about the performance of their L1. With this development, SOL continues to prove it’s the most performant and reliable blockchain under real-world pressure that we have in crypto. He pointed out that SOL’s valuation doesn’t reflect the resilience it is proving in the digital world.

The Dogecoin price slipped roughly 4% on the day and 24% on the week, hovering near $0.20–$0.21 at press time. While the pullback cools last week’s rebound, analysts say fresh Nasdaq-listing headlines and ETF momentum could reset the narrative and revive the long-standing $1 target if key levels hold. Nasdaq Listing & Dogecoin ETF Buzz Put $1 Back in Sight The House of Doge, a corporate arm tied to the Dogecoin Foundation, plans to go public via a $50 million merger with Brag House Holdings (NASDAQ: TBH). The new entity is set to steward an ecosystem treasury of 837 million DOGE and push DOGE integrations across gaming, campus sports, and digital media, bringing the brand closer to mainstream finance and culture. At the same time, Dogecoin ETFs from issuers such as 21Shares, Bitwise, and Grayscale are on the SEC’s docket, with early DOGE products already drawing over $30 million despite higher fees. A green light for lower-cost funds could funnel new, regulated demand into DOGE, historically a catalyst for liquidity and price discovery across crypto. Key levels: $0.20 support, $0.23–$0.25 and $0.29–$0.30 Resistance Dogecoin Price action remains balanced on a knife-edge. Traders flag $0.200 as critical support; losing it risks a slide toward $0.178. On the upside, initial resistance sits at $0.214 and $0.229, with a broader supply zone at $0.241–$0.254. A daily close above $0.25 opens a run at $0.29–$0.30, the area many watch for a breakout confirmation. Technically, DOGE recently printed hammer/morning star patterns off the lows, while momentum has cooled to neutral, often a staging zone before the next directional move. For swing traders, $0.18 (support) and $0.25 (resistance) are the immediate invalidation/continuation lines. Whales accumulate as Weekly Triangle Coils On-chain, whales soaked up roughly $42 million in DOGE during the dip, signaling confidence as price continues to coil inside a multi-month triangle on the weekly chart. Historically, DOGE’s long compressions have preceded outsized expansions. A decisive break above $0.30 would align with that pattern and shift near-term targets to $0.49 and ultimately the psychological $1 over a longer horizon, particularly if Nasdaq listing progress and ETF approvals land in sync. Cover image from ChatGPT, DOGEUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is testing a critical support level near $110,000 after being rejected from the $116,000 supply zone, a level that has now become a major point of contention between bulls and bears. The market remains fragile following the historic volatility from Friday’s crash, which erased billions in leveraged positions and triggered widespread uncertainty. While the price has managed to stabilize above key moving averages for now, momentum appears to be weakening as buyers struggle to absorb continued selling pressure. Some analysts warn that if Bitcoin fails to hold this zone, a deeper correction toward the $105,000–$107,000 region could follow, marking another shakeout before a potential recovery. Top analyst Axel Adler shared new data shedding light on the magnitude of Friday’s event. According to his analysis, spot trading volume surged to $44 billion, nearing cycle highs, while futures volume hit $128 billion. More notably, open interest declined by $14 billion, yet only $1 billion of that was from BTC long liquidations. Adler explains this was a controlled deleveraging event, not a liquidation cascade — suggesting that market participants reduced risk manually rather than being forced out. Still, volatility remains elevated as Bitcoin fights to maintain structural support. A Controlled Reset Amid Growing Fear According to Axel Adler, the recent market crash revealed an important yet underappreciated aspect of Bitcoin’s maturity. Data shows that 93% of the $14 billion decline in open interest (OI) during Friday’s sell-off wasn’t forced — meaning it wasn’t the result of automatic liquidations. Instead, traders and institutions chose to reduce leverage manually, closing positions to protect capital. Adler describes this as a “controlled deleveraging”, a stark contrast to previous cycles where similar crashes often triggered chaotic cascades of liquidations. This behavior marks a turning point in Bitcoin’s market structure. It indicates that participants — especially institutional players — are managing risk more prudently, reinforcing a more stable and mature trading environment. In past cycles, sharp liquidations often caused extreme volatility, magnifying losses across the board. This time, however, the market handled unprecedented stress with relative discipline. Still, despite this sign of structural maturity, the emotional landscape has shifted dramatically. As Bitcoin loses value and hovers near the $110,000–$112,000 support zone, fear is spreading across the market. Many short-term traders are exiting positions, while long-term holders are reassessing exposure amid rising uncertainty. Adler notes that this phase — where fear peaks and confidence wanes — often defines the next market direction. If demand returns at these levels, Bitcoin could confirm a healthy reset before the next rally. But failure to hold support may test investors’ conviction, potentially pushing BTC into a deeper corrective phase before broader accumulation resumes. Bitcoin Holds Key Support, But Momentum Weakens Bitcoin is currently trading around $110,300, sitting directly on a key support zone after another round of selling pressure hit the market. The 4-hour chart shows BTC struggling to maintain upward momentum after failing to break above the $116,000–$117,500 resistance range, a level that previously acted as strong demand during earlier rallies. The rejection from this area triggered a sharp pullback, pushing BTC below both the 50 EMA (blue line) and the 200 EMA (red line) — a sign of weakening short-term structure. The price is now testing horizontal support around $110,000, which aligns with the late September consolidation range. A clean breakdown below this level could expose Bitcoin to further downside, with the next potential support around $106,000–$107,000. Despite the bearish tone, oversold signals are beginning to appear on lower timeframes, suggesting that a temporary rebound is possible if bulls defend this zone successfully. For a sustainable recovery, Bitcoin must reclaim $114,000 and re-establish itself above the short-term moving averages. Until then, the market remains in a fragile equilibrium — with bulls defending key support and bears maintaining control of short-term momentum. The next few sessions will be decisive for BTC’s direction. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

In his latest display of geopolitical confrontation, U.S. President Donald Trump tightened oil sanctions against Venezuela, forcing Caracas to seek alternative suppliers of crude oil. Venezuela, one of the world's leaders in oil reserves, has been crippled by international sanctions, outdated infrastructure, and a chronic lack of investment, limiting its ability to develop the oil sector. Although the country does produce and sell some oil, its thick, viscous crude is not highly valued on global markets. Caracas must dilute it with lighter grades of oil before exporting. Until recently, that lighter oil came from the United States—but Trump decided to cut the flow due to Venezuela's flourishing narcotics trade. As a result, the new sanctions pushed Venezuela to search for oil beyond U.S. borders. Initially, Caracas tried to strike a deal with China, but that effort faltered. At the same time, Russia had suffered a drop in oil exports to the European Union and was more than willing to redirect excess volumes to Venezuela. In the end, Russia easily found a buyer for its surplus crude, while Donald Trump, in his attempt to limit sales of Russian oil, ended up undermining his own efforts. In my view, Trump will fail in his attempts to manipulate the Kremlin. Clearly, ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a noble objective. But Trump's methods—well known to the global community—are limited to threats, ultimatums, sanctions, and tariffs. Such tactics may work on countries that depend on the U.S. market, but are ineffective against those with no significant trade ties to Washington. Given this context, there is only one realistic path forward for Washington and Moscow: to sit at a real negotiating table rather than attempt to pressure one another. The same applies to relations between China and the United States. However, as long as Trump remains president, it is unlikely we'll see truly inclusive talks that consider the needs and interests of all parties involved. Wave Structure for EUR/USD:Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to develop an upward trend segment. The wave labeling remains entirely dependent on news flow related to Trump's decisions, both in foreign and domestic U.S. policy. The targets for the current trend segment could extend toward the 1.2500 area. At present, we are likely witnessing the construction of corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion but shows a very complex and extended form. Accordingly, I continue to consider only buy positions. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise toward 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Structure for GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. We are still dealing with a bullish impulsive wave segment, but its internal wave pattern has become more complex. Wave 4 is taking on a complicated three-wave structure, significantly longer than wave 2. Currently, the pair appears to be forming one final leg of this corrective phase, which may soon be complete. If confirmed, a renewed push higher within the larger wave structure may begin, with initial targets in the 1.3800 to 1.4000 region. Key Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are difficult to trade and often prone to revisions.If you're unsure of current market behavior, it's better to stay out.Absolute certainty in market direction does not and cannot exist. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure: for the second consecutive week, bearish traders are targeting the 1.1550 support level, which corresponds to the lower Bollinger Bands line on the D1 timeframe. The primary reason behind this price dynamic is escalating U.S.–China tensions. The trade war continues to gain momentum, risk-off sentiment is intensifying, and the safe-haven U.S. dollar is increasingly in demand. Additional pressure on the pair came from ZEW survey results, which unexpectedly fell into the "red zone." However, in our view, market participants may have rushed to judgment. The German economic sentiment index came in at 39.3, while analysts had forecast an increase to 40.5. The result is somewhat contradictory. On one hand, it missed the forecast and landed in negative territory. On the other hand, the index has been rising for the second month in a row—after a sharp August drop to 34.7, it increased to 37.3 in September and then to 39.3 in October. This indicates the formation of an upward trend and some moderate improvement in business confidence. Notably, optimism is growing in export-oriented industries such as metallurgy, pharmaceuticals, engineering, and electrical equipment manufacturing, linked to a rebound in demand—particularly from China. However, the ZEW current conditions index for Germany dropped to –80, falling 3.6 points from September instead of improving to the predicted –75. This result reflects worsening perceptions of the current economic environment, likely shaped by the renewed U.S.–China trade war, the effects of which will undoubtedly be felt in the Eurozone. The euro area's aggregate ZEW economic sentiment index also declined in October to 22.7, while analysts had expected a rise to 30.2. This is the weakest reading since May of this year. In summary, Germany—Europe's economic engine—is showing moderate improvement in expectations and investor optimism, while overall eurozone sentiment is weakening amid rising uncertainty and risk. This mixed picture allows the European Central Bank to maintain a wait-and-see approach, especially given rising inflation in Germany and growing CPI in the Eurozone. However, EUR/USD traders interpreted the ZEW release negatively for the euro: the single currency weakened not only against the U.S. dollar but also in many cross pairs (such as EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY). The main driver behind the pair's decline remains the escalating U.S.–China trade war, which has strengthened risk aversion and increased demand for the safe-haven dollar—despite the ongoing (14-day) U.S. government shutdown and rising "dovish" expectations for upcoming Fed actions. Donald Trump has announced the introduction of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in response to China's new export restrictions on rare earth metals and magnets. China dominates global supply of these resources, accounting for about 90% of rare earth metal exports and more than 90% of global magnet production. These materials are critical for a wide range of technologies—from smartphones and consumer gadgets to electric vehicles and fighter jets. As such, the White House viewed China's decision as a threat to U.S. national security, and Trump's response was predictably severe. Interestingly, two days ago, Trump posted a conciliatory message on social media, stating that "everything will be fine with China" and that Xi Jinping "does not want to plunge his country into a Great Depression." Despite the friendly tone, the message was essentially an ultimatum: either Beijing reverses its decision, or Washington enforces an embargo on Chinese goods. China, unsurprisingly, rejected the "offered hand of friendship," stating that if the U.S. wants to fight, "then China will fight to the end." While both sides have formally left the door open for negotiations, real actions point to intensifying confrontation. For instance, starting today, the U.S. and China have introduced new reciprocal port fees. Vessels owned by American companies or with more than 25% U.S. equity will be charged $56 per net ton when entering Chinese ports. These rates are set to increase: to $90 starting April 17, 2026, and to $125 from April 17, 2027. Additionally, China's Ministry of Commerce announced sanctions against five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipping giant Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of assisting U.S. restrictions on China's maritime sectors (shipbuilding and logistics). As we can see, the trade war machinery continues to spin, fueling risk-off sentiment and supporting demand for the U.S. dollar. However, considering short positions on EUR/USD is only advisable if sellers break through the 1.1550 support level (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the D1 chart), which has so far resisted bearish pressure (the pair has been testing this target for two consecutive weeks). A break below this level would pave the way for further decline, with the next bearish target at 1.1480 (the lower Bollinger Band line on the weekly chart). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The UK labor market report for August showed no indication that inflationary pressure is likely to ease. Average wages, including bonuses, rose by 5% year-over-year over the last three months, significantly higher than the previous reading of 4.7%. At the same time, unemployment increased, as did the number of jobless claims. Adjusted for inflation, the real annual growth in total wages increased by 1.2%, which is also higher than for the previous three-month period. On a broader scale, there has been no change in the inflation outlook. In September, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) published calculations from its own inflation forecasting model, which incorporates key real-economy indicators such as GDP, producer prices, and 10-year bond yields. The model indicated a high probability that consumer inflation will remain in the 3.7% to 4.0% range through April 2026. If certain price-suppressing factors are excluded from the model, it even projects a peak near 6% by June 2026. This suggests that the downward trend in inflation is nearly absent at this stage. As a result, the Bank of England will likely remain in a difficult position for an extended period. There is no basis to lower the interest rate, while maintaining a high interest rate exerts a strong negative effect on the UK economy. For the pound, this environment implies bullish potential, as a high interest rate translates into a higher yield. The risk factor lies in the economic slowdown. However, the next GDP report is still some time away, and the threat of recession remains speculative for now. At present, the pound is declining, but this is largely a consequence of broad U.S. dollar strength across the global currency market. The pound is moving in step with worldwide trends. If the dollar fails to sustain its bullish trend, there is a strong likelihood that the pound will return to an upward trajectory in the long term. The fair value has dropped below the long-term average. As long as GBP/USD remains above the support level at 1.3140, the pair is trading within a broader range, and the probability of remaining within this range remains high. At the same time, more and more signals point to a potential downward reversal. Notably, the local top from September 17 formed below the 1.3877 level, and the turn downward in the fair value suggests that fundamental factors now increasingly support continued decline. A test of 1.3140 is expected, and a breakout could strengthen bearish momentum. It is important to note that the bearish impulse is currently short-term in nature, and it is still too early to speak of a transition into a long-term downtrend. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The study involves examination of public reporting as well as interviews with member companies, and three in-depth case-study visits to mine sites. The MSV team has recently visited the South Deep operation of Gold Fields in South Africa to speak with the company and its suppliers. “With its social and economic contribution reports showing most in-country spending goes to procurement, the World Gold Council deserves credit for working with its member companies to highlight and promote the economic benefits for host communities and countries that can be created through local procurement,” Jeff Geipel, managing director of the MSV said in a news release. Many mining companies have put in place very effective local procurement processes to support community-level and national suppliers, but often these success stories are not shared, MSV pointed out. “The sustained social and economic contributions that gold mining companies make to the local communities where they operate is not well understood,” WGC Chief Strategy Officer Terry Heyman said. “We are thrilled to partner with Mining Shared Value to better understand the significant opportunities that exist when it comes to local procurement, which has the potential to create jobs and businesses that reach beyond the mining sector,” Heyman said. “ We hope this report will help all mining companies reflect on the way in which they procure their goods and services to maximise benefit to local communities.” The study will be launched in London on December 1, during London Mining Week.

After a blistering run to fresh all-time highs, Binance Coin (BNB) has seen a significant drop. Following a push to roughly $1,370–$1,376, BNB slid about 10% in the past 24 hours, making it one of the biggest decliners on the day as traders reassess risk and profits come off the table. The retreat follows a dramatic weekend across crypto, but also arrives after a string of BNB-specific catalysts that pushed the token into price discovery. What Drove The BNB Price Surge, And The Snapback BNB ripped to record levels as the market rebounded from the largest liquidation event on record (nearly $19B wiped in 24 hours), with BNB Chain on-chain activity surging to record transaction counts and top-ranked DEX volumes. Binance also earmarked about $283 million to compensate users impacted by volatile conditions and platform slowdowns, a move that helped restore confidence and funneled fresh attention and fees back into the ecosystem. As spot and derivatives momentum stretched, however, signs of uptrend exhaustion emerged near the highs. That left BNB vulnerable to a fast mean-reversion as leveraged longs de-risked and short-term players took profits. Key Levels to Watch After The 10% Drop Technically, BNB remains in a broader uptrend but is testing support zones that will decide whether this is a routine pullback or the start of a deeper correction: $1,190–$1,170: First support and a common profit-taking area. Losing it cleanly risks a sharper leg lower. $1,150: Major level; a breakdown here would signal momentum fatigue and invite a move toward the rising trendline. $1,000 (trendline / 50-day SMA): High-confluence support. A defense here would keep the higher-low structure intact; a daily close below raises odds of a deeper reset toward $960–$820. On the upside, $1,320 is the first hurdle. A decisive reclaim and close back above $1,375 would put $1,450–$1,550 back on the table as liquidity returns and momentum re-ignites. Final Outlook: Consolidation First, Then Direction BNB’s fundamentals remain constructive, from record network operations and deepening DeFi liquidity to active burn mechanics and ecosystem funds targeting builders. That said, the near term favors consolidation while the market absorbs the recent vertical move and macro headlines settle. If bulls can hold $1,180 and especially $1,150, the structure supports a base-building phase into another attempt at the highs. Conversely, a sustained break below $1,150 would argue for a deeper correction into the $1,000 area before buyers meaningfully step back in. Cover image from ChatGPT, BNBUSD chart from Tradingview

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 14 Market sentiment has been yo-yoing since Friday’s turmoil, with investors struggling to find stable footing after the week’s chaotic end. While equities appear to have found an intermediate bottom, the price action remains uncertain, reflecting caution and the price action in risk-assets is now much more open compared to the prior up-only trend. Every US-China headline is being closely dissected, the latest being this Axios update, which reignited some anxiety over the increasingly fragile trade relationship between the two global leaders. The overall ambiance is one of hesitation — a fitting tone for what has been a volatile year. That said, Powell’s dovish tone around the mid-session did help restore confidence, reinforcing expectations for another rate cut by month-end. Add to that a wave of dip-buying and some further downplaying comments from USTR Greer, and markets managed to rebound convincingly – At least from their terrible daily open. The Dow closed higher on the session, while the Russell 2000 — performing particularly better in lower rate conditions— broke new records, clearly enjoying the renewed risk-on momentum. Russell 2000 Futures, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowThe Powell/TACO combo lifts Wall Street from early lossesUSD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The scale of changes to all assets in today's session is fairly low, but don't let that fool you: Volatility was extremely elevated today, particularly when looking at the switch between the Asia session risk-off to the more bullish/positive sentiment that arrived after the US Open (around 10:00 A.M). To give yourself a perspective, take a close look to the movements in Ethereum (ETH). Almost everything mean-reverted as some point today, marking further hesitation to the ongoing themes and narratives. Expect volatility yet again. Read More: UK labor report gives pound a reality check: What's next for GBPWTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up againA picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 14 – Source: OANDA Labs Risk-off currencies dominated the charts today, while the Euro enjoyed some of the US Dollar weakness that came back. Apart from that, nothing much to note from FX markets that are awaiting any particular change. Some further weakness in Antipodeans (AUD, NZD) is to denote in the past few sessions, hurt by the worsening sentiment particularly surrounding Chinese trade. Keep an eye on this for any potential trends forming. A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not entirely over, particularly for APAC traders awaiting for Chinese inflation data: Both CPI and PPI releasing at 21:30 tonight. This should have a strong impact on the Antipodeans which haven't liked all the US-China headlines so much. With the BLS releases still offline, traders will look to alternative indicators for signs of U.S. economic momentum — and today’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey takes center stage. How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdown Consensus points to a mild rebound (-1.8 vs -8.7 prior), and any upside surprise could lift sentiment on the U.S. outlook. Europe will start the western session with Industrial Production and several ECB and BoE speeches, while the U.S. afternoon will be packed with Fed commentary and the Beige Book release. Later in the day, attention shifts to Australia’s employment data, which could drive AUD volatility further if the job market shows further cooling – The last piece wasn't an optimal surprise for AUD bulls. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Dogecoin just endured a sharp weekend drawdown, slipping back below the $0.20s after failing to extend its early October rebound. This decline was enough to wipe out many weeks of steady gains and shake retail sentiment. However, amid the volatility, the monthly chart is still bullish. Despite the weekend crash, Dogecoin is well above its 25-month moving average and is trading near the same structural zone that preceded past parabolic rallies. This setup caught the attention of a technical analyst on X known as EᴛʜᴇʀNᴀꜱʏᴏɴᴀL, who pointed out that the same pattern that preceded Dogecoin’s 36,000% breakout in 2021 has now resurfaced. Historical Structure Reappears On Dogecoin’s Chart According to the analyst’s long-term monthly chart, Dogecoin has repeatedly entered explosive bull runs after exhibiting three major technical conditions: a breakout from a prolonged falling trend, sustained trading above the 25MA, and a successful retest phase that confirms structural strength. Each of these setups has led to massive price expansions, most notably the 36,000% surge that catapulted DOGE from fractions of a cent to its May 2021 all-time high of $0.7316. As shown in the chart below, the same technical conditions are playing out again. The falling trendline that had capped Dogecoin’s growth since mid-2021 has already been broken, and the price is well positioned above the 25MA. The ongoing consolidation is representing the retest phase, the same period that preceded the last two major parabolic runs in 2017 and 2021. Another important observation highlighted by the analyst is that each historical breakout was preceded by what is referred to as the NGMI (Not Gonna Make It) phase. This is typically when Dogecoin is trading sideways or dipping slightly after breaking out of its multi-month falling trendline. Will History Repeat For DOGE? As it stands, Dogecoin’s monthly price pattern is now back to trading around this downward trendline, which it broke above in late 2024. The latest candlestick wick, which was created with Dogecoin’s recent fall to $0.18, saw it touching this trendline again very briefly. However, if Dogecoin’s recurring structural pattern continues to play out as it has before, the current downtrend phase might precede another strong rally. The technical alignment, a combination of price stability above the 25MA, the breakout from a long-term downtrend, and the retest confirmation, means that momentum is still quietly building beneath the surface. Although no chart can guarantee a repetition of the 2021 magnitude, EᴛʜᴇʀNᴀꜱʏᴏɴᴀL’s technical outlook provides a compelling argument that Dogecoin’s larger bullish cycle is still intact. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.201, down by 5.2% and 23% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively.

Today marked the first trading day of the week for many North American traders after Columbus Day for the US and the Canadian Thanksgiving — and the session opened with what felt like a long-weekend hangover. Overnight markets had reacted sharply to China’s condemnations regarding the escalating US-China trade tensions, notably hurting Oil markets even further. Despite Trump’s reassuring comments on Sunday, which helped risk assets rebound over the weekend and led to a bullish Monday session, sentiment reversed during the Asia session leading to a scary opening Bell. Major indices gapped down, with the Nasdaq dropping 1.2% and cryptocurrencies also taking another hit after last week’s selloff. Sentiment quickly shifted mid-morning after the rough open. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer downplayed some of the recent rhetoric between the two nations, triggering a rebound just 20 minutes after the open that carried momentum throughout the session. By midday, all four major US indices had turned positive, erasing their early losses. 15M Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the impressive rebound right after the open taking all indices to their weekly highs, there is are ongoing selloff waves in the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 to keep some eyes on. Nasdaq is not really reacting much for now and I am not spotting any headlines. The real bullish catalysts came around mid-day from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose dovish remarks at the National Association for Business Economics meeting brought further bullish momentum. Powell’s comments raised questions about whether the Fed had early insights into the NFP data, as he emphasized that further labor market softening could justify additional easing. His tone cemented expectations for another rate cut by month-end, reinforcing the ongoing theme of things not being so bad after all despite the US-China trade scare. You can access his latest speech right here. Still, the price action is looking more rangebound with the recent swings rather than back to fully bullish – Let's take a closer look to the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. US Equity heatmap – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More: WTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up againUK labor report gives pound a reality check: What's next for GBPUS-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowUS Index analysis and levels: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500Dow Jones 4H Chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones led an impressive rebound today, lifted by decent earnings and a easier-path ahead when turning to Powell's latest comments. A few things to look going forward: A downward topline has put a strong stop to the ongoing bullish actionBulls will have to break above the Monday highs to relaunch a fully bullish price actionSellers will also have to break below the daily lows to relaunch take controlIn the meantime, the technical outlook being mixed, a consolidation period would have high probability of taking place – At least until the market knows more on the US-China situation.Dow Jones technical levels of interest Resistance Levels Current All-time high 47,105Daily highs to break with topline 46,560ATH Resistance Zone 47,000 to 47,160 (+/- 150 pts)post-FOMC highs resistance zone around 46,400 (immediately testing)Support Levels August ATH Immediate Pivot 45,650 to 45,750Daily session lows at 45,490Friday lows at 45,18945,000 psychological level44,400 to 44,500 Main SupportNasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Tech-Heavy index hasn't rebounded as strongly as its peers today on a relative change and is finding itself in a mixed technical environment. It is the second time that sellers appear at the key Momentum pivot around 24,800 showing how undecisive the price action is. Keep an eye on struggling names in tech like Nvidia: If they come back from here, Nasdaq should follow suit. If the big names keep getting offered, ther path ahead might be a bit more grim. Nasdaq technical levels of interest Resistance Levels current ATH 25,2241.618 Fib-Extension resistance between 25,200 and 25,300Momentum Pivot 24,750 to 24,800Monday highs and 4H MA 50 24,890Support Levels End September Support and MA 200 24,300 (morning rebound)Friday lows 24,016August 12 ATH zone turning support (23,950 to 24,020)23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart S&P 500 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Similarly as the Nasdaq, sellers have appeared around the momentum pivot and the overall action might not be as bullish as it was the past few months – Keep an eye on sentiment. A pattern that emerges is the ongoing break-retest action of the main May upward channel – short term technicals are looking more neutral than anything for now. The price action will be interesting for the time to come, expect volatility. S&P 500 Trading Levels: Resistance Levels 6,774 (current All Time-Highs)Key current Resistance 6,745 to 6,760Key Pivot Zone 6,670 to 6,700potential resistance (1.618 fib - 6,790 to 6,800)Support Levels 6,570 to 6,600 Key SupportFOMC and daily lows 6,5626,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (MA 200 Confluence)6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows) Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the Day The loonie has recovered in the US session after starting the day on the back foot. The move was more driven by the US dollar than any developments on the side of the Canadian Dollar. The loonie has come under pressure in recent days as oil prices have also retreated to fresh lows. When it comes to USD/CAD, the loonies weakness coincided with a rally for the US Dollar which has defied the US Government shutdown and US-China tensions to leave the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near recent highs. Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and USD/CAD has broken the channel which had help price over for just over two months. This sets up USD/CAD for a potential 280 pip move. The medium-term outlook does look positive for USD/CAD as price has broken above the psychological 1.4000 handle and the 200-day MA. This is the first time USD/CAD trades above the 200-day MA since April 10, 2025. Funny enough this also coincided with USD/CAD breaking below the 1.4000 handle as is the case with the break above this time around. This makes the 200-day MA key for me and thus if we are to see the bullish move continue, price needs to remain above the 200-day MA if we get any pullback in price. USD/CAD Daily Chart, October 14, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Dropping down to the four-hour chart and you can see that we have just had a bearish engulfing candle close. Together with the daily hovering near overbought territory (it was in overbought territory when USD/CAD was at its daily high) could lead to a slightly deeper pullback. If this does materialize, the swing low at 1.39840 is very close to the 200-day MA on the daily timeframe, which rests around Thus a hold above this level may be the sign for those would be bulls looking to get involved. USD/CAD Four-Hour Chart, October 14, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Economic Data Ahead The US Government shutdown remains in effect and thus data from a US perspective remains out of reach. There is also a lack of high impact data from Canada this week with a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem the highlight. This could leave the technicals as a major driver for price moves while trade war developments between the US and China will also play a role. Next week is much more interesting. We get the releases of key inflation data from the US & Canada. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on USDCAD with 75% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means USD/CAD prices could rise in the near-term. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Veteran chartist Peter Brandt has shifted his view on XRP, moving from a short-lived bearish stance to a more positive outlook as the token tries to recover from a sharp market drop. According to recent reports, XRP fell to $1.55 Friday, Oct. 10 during the sell-off, then bounced back into the mid-$2 range as traders reassessed the situation. Brandt Revises Technical Take Brandt shared a long-term weekly chart covering 2013 to 2025. The chart shows years of sideways action that formed large triangle shapes before big moves. Between 2014 and 2017, XRP was held inside a symmetrical triangle and then broke out in March 2017, which preceded a run up to $3.30 by January 2018. That historical backdrop is being used now as a roadmap by some traders who see patterns repeating. Brandt’s recent update came after he had earlier listed XRP among possible short targets; he later said he closed his short for a profit and has since turned bullish. Channel Pattern After The Breakout Data shows a break above the triangle took place during the November 2024 rally. After that move, XRP entered a parallel channel where prices moved back and forth. The crash around Oct. 10 pushed XRP down to test the lower line of that channel, and the rebound has been built off that same support. At one point Brandt had XRP trading near $2.64, under its one-week simple moving average of $2.83, and it has been reported to have corrected further to about $2.55 at press time. Market strength is still thin; the Average Directional Index sits at 21.5, which points to a trend that is forming but not yet strong. On-Chain Signal Shows Traders Selling At A Loss Based on reports from Xaif Crypto, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for XRP dropped to a level last seen six months ago. That drop indicates many holders sold at a loss during the crash. Market watchers say a fall in SOPR can mark capitulation and sometimes precedes a recovery if buyers step in. During the sell-off, XRP slid nearly 44% from $2.8 to roughly $1.58, according to trading data, but it has since climbed back toward the $2.5 region as sellers have been absorbed. Key Levels To Watch A weekly close above $3 would be seen as proof of renewed strength. Resistance around $3.6 lines up with a July 2025 peak and could stall gains. Support is marked by the breakout zone and a rising trendline that runs from about $0.8 to $1.5. If those supports break, XRP could move lower toward the $1 area before stabilizing. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

The Blockchain Recovery Investment Consortium (BRIC), a partnership between GXD Labs and VanEck, announced on Tuesday a significant development in Celsius’ bankruptcy case. Tether (USDT) has agreed to pay a major amount to the crypto lender’s bankruptcy estate following an adversary proceeding that was initiated last year. Tether Settles Billion Dollar Lawsuit This settlement marks a significant milestone in the ongoing legal saga surrounding Celsius, which filed for bankruptcy in July 2022. Celsius had previously accused Tether of mishandling collateral and liquidations, claiming 39,542 BTC (approximately $4.3 billion at the time) along with an additional $100 million in damages, which constituted their largest third-party claim. As previously reported by Bitcoinist, Celsius asserted that Tether’s actions exemplified a broader “scheme to exploit the US cryptocurrency market,” a position they believed could support jurisdiction in this case. In response to the allegations, Tether characterized the lawsuit as a “shake down,” asserting that Celsius was responsible for providing additional collateral in light of fluctuating Bitcoin prices at the time. Tether maintained that Celsius’s mismanagement should not result in undue costs for them. Significant Return For Celsius Bankruptcy Creditors Ultimately, the settlement allows Tether to resolve the matter for a fraction of the initial amount claimed by Celsius, with nearly $300 million expected to be recovered, providing a notable return for creditors involved in the bankruptcy proceedings. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino also commented on the settlement on social media site X (formerly Twitter), stating, “Tether is pleased to have reached a settlement of all issues related to the Celsius bankruptcy.” David Proman, Managing Partner of GXD Labs, also expressed satisfaction with the resolution. “We are pleased to have resolved Celsius’s adversary proceeding and related claims against Tether,” he stated. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to trade with high volatility following Friday’s brutal crash that sent prices as low as $103,000. Over the weekend, the market has struggled to find a clear direction, with bulls and bears locked in a tense battle around the $115,000 level. Sentiment remains divided — some analysts expect a consolidation phase before another leg higher, while others warn of a deeper correction if selling pressure intensifies. Adding to the uncertainty, new data from on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain has revealed massive withdrawals by wallets linked to Matrixport, a major crypto financial services platform. The move has sparked heavy speculation across the market, with investors debating whether this represents institutional accumulation, treasury reallocation, or preparation for potential selling. Matrixport, founded by former Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu, is known for managing large-scale digital asset operations. As such, its actions often draw attention from analysts tracking institutional flows. For now, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position — consolidating near support, while large-scale whale movements keep traders on edge. Institutions Adjust Positions as Market Enters Choppy Phase As Bitcoin struggles to reclaim its recent all-time highs above $125,000, institutional activity has started to reflect a more cautious tone. The market appears to be entering a choppy, directionless phase — one defined by profit-taking, reallocation, and controlled derisking rather than panic. Long-term holders, who have accumulated substantial gains throughout the year, are beginning to trim positions, locking in profits as volatility remains elevated and macroeconomic uncertainty grows. The recent Matrixport activity fits neatly into this broader institutional trend. On-chain data from Lookonchain revealed that wallets linked to Matrixport withdrew 4,000 BTC (roughly $454 million) from Binance within 20 hours, a move that quickly caught the attention of traders and analysts. Such large transfers from exchanges are typically interpreted as a sign of strategic repositioning — either moving assets to custody, deploying them for institutional clients, or reallocating capital in response to shifting market dynamics. This follows a pattern seen across major crypto players in recent weeks. Institutional entities appear to be rotating funds, managing risk more proactively, and rebalancing exposure amid the heightened volatility triggered by Friday’s market crash. The broader context suggests not an exodus, but rather a strategic phase of recalibration. In essence, the Matrixport withdrawal underscores a market in transition — one where large players are still active but far more selective. As Bitcoin hovers between $113K and $118K, the coming days could define whether this cautious accumulation transforms into renewed confidence or if continued derisking keeps BTC trapped in consolidation before its next decisive move. Bitcoin Price Analysis: Consolidation Deepens After Rejection Bitcoin continues to show signs of weakness after failing to reclaim the $117,500 resistance level — a key zone that has now acted as a rejection point multiple times over the past months. The daily chart shows BTC trading around $111,800, down roughly 3% in the last 24 hours, as volatility remains elevated following last week’s sharp correction. The 50-day moving average (blue line) has started to flatten, signaling a potential short-term shift in momentum, while the 100-day MA (green line) is acting as dynamic support near $111,000. A decisive breakdown below this area could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction toward the 200-day MA (red line), currently sitting around $106,000 — a level that has historically served as a strong accumulation zone. On the upside, bulls must reclaim $117,500 to regain control and reestablish a bullish structure. However, the repeated failures to sustain above this range reflect growing indecision and possible profit-taking by institutions and long-term holders. The market appears to be consolidating within a broad range, with traders awaiting confirmation of direction. A clean push above $117,500 would open the door for recovery, while a close below $110,000 could increase bearish momentum in the short term. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Boa tarde, traders. O Presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, acaba de entregar um discurso denso e de imensa importância, realizando um delicado ato de equilíbrio que tenta acalmar os mercados de liquidez enquanto mantém uma postura firme contra a inflação. A manchete principal, e o sinal mais claro de uma grande virada na política monetária, é que o programa de aperto quantitativo (QT), que drena liquidez do sistema, pode ser encerrado "nos próximos meses". No entanto, o discurso também veio carregado de alertas sobre os riscos de uma inflação persistente e os perigos de agir "rápido demais" no corte de juros. 1. O Fim do QT: A Validação da Tese de Liquidez Este anúncio é a validação oficial da nossa tese de que o sistema financeiro não suporta mais o dreno de liquidez. Como alertamos, com as reservas bancárias em níveis críticos, o fim do QT se tornou uma necessidade técnica, não uma escolha de política. Powell admitiu que, no momento, "não há um caminho sem riscos" para a política monetária, reconhecendo o dilema estagflacionário que o Fed enfrenta. Minha Análise: A mensagem de Powell sobre o QT é um sinal "dovish" (brando) inequívoco. É o reconhecimento de que a fragilidade do sistema financeiro exige uma mudança de curso, independentemente dos dados de inflação de curto prazo. 2. O Alerta Inflacionário e a "Cegueira" do Shutdown Para equilibrar o sinal dovish do QT, Powell adotou um tom duro em relação à inflação. Ele alertou que "a inflação ainda está subindo" e que o efeito das novas tarifas de importação pode parecer uma "inflação sustentável", complicando o cenário. Afirmou que agir "rápido demais" nos cortes de juros poderia deixar o trabalho de combate à inflação inacabado. Confirmou que, devido ao "shutdown" do governo, o Fed está "começando a perder dados estatísticos", o que torna a tomada de decisões uma tarefa muito mais complexa. Minha Análise: Esta é a tentativa de Powell de gerenciar as expectativas. Enquanto o fim do QT é uma vitória para os mercados, ele está sinalizando que os cortes de juros podem ser mais lentos do que muitos esperam. Ele está preso entre a necessidade de fornecer liquidez (encerrando o QT) e o medo de alimentar a inflação (sendo cauteloso com os cortes de juros). 3. Implicações de Mercado e a Grande Notícia Cripto Ouro (XAU/USD): O cenário é extremamente positivo. O fim do QT é uma forma de flexibilização monetária e o sinal mais forte de que o Fed priorizará a estabilidade do sistema. Isso reforça a tese de alta estrutural para o ouro para o médio e longo prazo. No curto prazo, deve-se tomar atenção em fluxos de ofertas de preço, porquê os bancos podem forçar o preço obter oferta para que eles ingressem mais. Dólar (USD): Estruturalmente negativo. O fim do encolhimento do balanço do Fed, combinado com os cortes de juros, confirma a trajetória de baixa para o dólar. Enquanto o Fed domina as manchetes, uma notícia estruturalmente otimista para o mercado cripto surgiu hoje. Foi apresentado no congresso americano o "The Retirement Investment Choice Act", um projeto de lei que visa solidificar o decreto de Trump que permite a inclusão de criptomoedas nos planos de aposentadoria 401(k). Minha Análise: Este é um passo gigantesco. Ele abre legalmente as portas para que uma parte do mercado de aposentadoria americano, de US$ 9 trilhões, possa fluir para ativos como o Bitcoin, criando um canal para uma demanda de longo prazo e de grande escala. Conclusão de Igor Pereira O dia nos deixa com duas mensagens claras. Do Fed, temos a confirmação de que o aperto de liquidez via QT está terminando. Do lado regulatório, vemos as portas se abrindo para uma nova e massiva fonte de capital para as criptomoedas. O dilema estagflacionário é real, mas a resposta das autoridades, como sempre, parece ser a mesma: garantir o fluxo de liquidez. Preparem-se. Você agora entende o dilema de Powell e a grande notícia para o mercado. Mas a pergunta mais importante para um trader é: "Como eu opero isso na prática?" No ExpertFX Club, nós respondemos a essa pergunta. Transformamos a análise macro em planos de trade, com níveis, gatilhos e gerenciamento de risco. Tenha acesso à minha visão completa e às estratégias que não compartilho publicamente. Eleve sua análise. Eleve seus resultados. Junte-se à nossa comunidade, acesse o site " https://expertfx.club/ " e conheça.

First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM) has pushed back against claims that its La Granja copper project in northern Peru is stalled due to public opposition, calling the allegations outdated and misleading. The comments come in response to a study by GEM Mining Consulting, which suggests the project remains “blocked by public distrust.” First Quantum responded this week, stating La Granja is progressing “decisively and transparently” under strict environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. The company noted that GEM’s study relies on community opposition sources that are nearly two decades old and no longer reflect the current state of the project or its relationship with local stakeholders. La Granja, a joint venture between First Quantum (55%) and Rio Tinto (45%), sits in the district of Querocoto, Cajamarca. The project entered a new development phase in September 2023, focusing on advanced exploration and in-depth technical and socio-environmental studies. With an inferred mineral resource of 4.32 billion tonnes at 0.51% copper and room for further expansion, the site is viewed as a major copper asset. First Quantum highlighted ongoing regulatory inspections by Peruvian authorities, none of which have identified non-compliance. It also cited its participatory environmental monitoring program, which includes local community representatives. ESIA in the works The miner described its relationship with surrounding communities as strong, pointing to local employment, use of regional suppliers, and a permanent community information office in Querocoto. According to First Quantum, perception studies show that a majority of residents view La Granja favourably and consider it a key driver of regional development. Support from local, regional and national authorities further reinforces the project’s strategic importance to Peru’s economy, the company added. The miner said part of its $546 million initial funding is being invested on an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), which is expected to be completed in the next two years. “La Granja is a model of responsible mining where agriculture, livestock, and mining coexist harmoniously,” First Quantum said. “Far from being ‘blocked,’ the project continues to advance, grounded in dialogue, trust, and environmental stewardship.”

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. It is still too early to conclude that the upward trend segment has ended, but the recent decline in the euro has required an adjustment of the wave count. We now see a series of three-wave structures a–b–c, which may be part of the larger wave 4 within the overall uptrend. In this case, wave 4 has taken on an unusually extended form, but the wave pattern as a whole remains coherent. The formation of the upward trend segment continues, while the news background mostly supports currencies other than the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Federal Reserve also persists. The market's dovish expectations regarding the Fed rate are growing. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown continues. The market has given a rather low assessment of the results of Trump's first 7–8 months in office, even though economic growth in the second quarter reached nearly 4%. In my opinion, the formation of the upward trend segment is not yet complete. Its potential targets extend up to the 1.25 area. Based on this, the euro may continue to decline for some time, even without any clear reasons for it (as seen over the past two weeks). However, the wave structure will remain consistent. The EUR/USD pair declined by several dozen more points on Tuesday and could lose much more by the end of the day — even without relevant news. Lately, the pair has been trading entirely under the influence of a corrective wave pattern. Until recently, I did not believe that the market would continue to increase demand for the dollar given the current news background — but you live and learn. Even if the trend segment that began on July 1 is not wave 4, we are still observing the formation of a sequence of three-wave structures. Therefore, we should in any case expect the current structure to complete. At present, it is in the process of forming wave c, which could even end below the August 1 low at 1.1391. Based on this analysis, it can be concluded that the euro may easily lose another 150–200 points in value. The market is clearly taking advantage of the absence of U.S. economic data to benefit the dollar — no statistics, no problems. Once the shutdown ends and all delayed reports are released, it is possible that the formation of the upward trend will resume. For now, my readers can only watch events unfold. Personally, I still do not consider selling, as this would go against the current news background. Even though the political crisis in France has already been resolved, the euro continues to decline. General ConclusionsBased on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave structure still depends heavily on the news background related to Trump's decisions and the foreign and domestic policies of the new White House administration. The targets for the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. At present, we appear to be witnessing the formation of corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion but has taken on a complex and extended form. Therefore, in the near term, I still consider buying positions only. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale. On a smaller scale, the entire upward segment is clearly visible. The wave structure is not perfectly standard, as the corrective waves differ in size — for example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the inner wave 2 within wave 3. However, this also happens. I would like to remind readers that it is best to identify clear and readable structures on charts rather than trying to label every single wave. The current upward structure raises few doubts. Main Principles of My Analysis Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change unexpectedly.If you are unsure about the market situation, it is better to stay out.Absolute certainty about market direction never exists. Always use Stop Loss protective orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Today, the Japanese yen is leading amid concerns about possible interventions. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato noted that recently there have been one-sided and sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of stable currency movements that reflect the economy's fundamentals. This has supported the yen, although political uncertainty could limit its gains. Last week, the long-standing LDP–Komeito coalition unexpectedly collapsed, as newly elected LDP leader Sanae Takaichi awaits a parliamentary vote to confirm her as Japan's first female prime minister. The breakup means Takaichi will need support from other parties to advance her key initiatives. Nevertheless, growing political uncertainty could create challenges for the Bank of Japan regarding further rate hikes and may weaken the yen. In addition, optimism triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to reconsider his stance on Chinese tariffs has been another factor discouraging investment in safe-haven currencies. Trump softened his rhetoric, having earlier threatened to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, and stated on Truth Social that the U.S. does not wish to harm China. He noted that both nations aim to avoid economic losses, which has eased fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies. The U.S. dollar remains in a familiar range, trading near the month's high, which also helps the USD/JPY pair avoid global losses. However, dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve may limit further dollar strength and the pair's upward potential. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in October and December stands at about 97% and 90%, respectively. Meanwhile, traders are also pricing in the likelihood of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, given persistent inflation and solid economic data. The U.S. government shutdown has now entered its third week, as the budget impasse continues. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair is struggling to hold off a decline. However, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest potential for further upside. Buying above the round level of 152.00 could lift the pair toward 152.70–152.75, and a breakout above that would confirm a bullish outlook, pushing spot prices toward 153.00, allowing a retest of the eight-month high near 153.25–153.30, seen last Friday. On the other hand, a drop below 151.56 could attract buyers near 151.15 (Friday's swing low), followed by the psychological level of 151.00. A decisive break below 151.00 would leave USD/JPY vulnerable to an accelerated decline toward the psychological level of 150.00, with intermediate support around 150.70. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com