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[Natural Gas] – [Tuesday, October 14, 2025] With technical conditions signaling a weakening in Natural Gas, such as the RSI being in the Neutral-Bearish zone and the EMA(50) & EMA(200) still forming a Death Cross, indicating that #NG has the potential to move lower today. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 3.197 2. Resistance. 1 : 3.148 3. Pivot : 3.088 4. Support. 1 : 3.039 5. Support. 2 : 2.979 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If Natural Gas weakens and breaks through and closes below 3.039, it may continue its decline toward the 2.979 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 2.979 is broken and closes below, there is a possibility for Natural Gas to test the next support level at 2.930. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside bias is invalidated if #NG unexpectedly strengthens and breaks through and closes above 3.197. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 3.111 EMA(200): 3.220 RSI(14) : 47.07 Economic News Release Agenda: Today in the United States, there is the release of economic data such as NFIB Small Business Index at 17:00 WIBin the afternoon followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech at 23:20 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Crude Oil] – [Tuesday, October 14, 2025] Although the RSI indicator is in the Neutral-Bullish zone, but with the position of the Death Cross between the two EMAs suggests that #CL remains under bearish pressure. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 60.73 2. Resistance. 1 : 60.13 3. Pivot : 59.57 4. Support. 1 : 58.97 5. Support. 2 : 58.41 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price of #CL breaks down and closes below 58.97, there's potential for continued downside toward 58.41. Momentum Extension Bias: If 58.41 is broken and closes below, Crude Oil may extend its decline to 57.81. Invalidation Level Invalidation / Bias Revision: The downside bias is contained if #CL suddenly strengthens and breaks and closes above 60.73. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 59.77 EMA(200): 60.71 RSI(14) : 50.81 Economic News Release Agenda: Today in the United States, there is the release of economic data such as NFIB Small Business Index at 17:00 WIBin the afternoon followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech at 23:20 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As BNB rallies to new highs, a major Chinese investment bank is reportedly in talks to raise $600 million for a new US-based Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) company, focused on investing in the altcoin. Chinese Investment Plans $600 Million Fundraiser On Monday, Bloomberg reported that Beijing-based Chinese investment bank China Renaissance Holdings Ltd. is planning a fundraiser for a new BNB-based public vehicle backed by YZi Labs Management Ltd. According to the news media outlet, China Renaissance aims to raise $600 million to create a publicly listed DAT company dedicated to accumulating BNB in the United States. YZi Labs, formerly known as Binance Labs, reportedly plans to invest $200 million in the deal alongside the Hong Kong-listed bank. Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that YZi Labs met with a group of executives bullish on BNB for dinner in early October. China Renaissance, alongside other firms reportedly involved in setting up BNB hoarding companies, sent a representative to the event. It’s worth noting that the two companies recently announced a strategic partnership to “advance the development of BNB and the BNB Chain ecosystem,” which has been gaining momentum over the past few months. In August, China Renaissance shared that it had signed a strategic cooperation agreement with YZi Labs, aiming to “shape institutional pathways for digital asset adoption — from compliant product development to enterprise-level RWA applications” and create “meaningful synergies between the two ecosystems.” The investment bank also revealed its plan to invest around $100 million in BNB as part of its proprietary holdings, becoming the first Hong Kong-listed company to allocate the cryptocurrency as a proprietary digital asset. BNB Treasury Company Trend The Chinese investment bank initiative follows the growing trend of launching crypto-based DAT companies. This trend has seen the launch of dozens of new Treasury Companies and the investment of billions of dollars into these vehicles in the past couple of months. Last week, the world’s largest BNB Treasury Company, CEA Industries, announced that its treasury holdings have reached a total of $663 million in cash and crypto assets. As part of its goal to own 1% of the altcoin’s total token supply by the end of 2025, the Nasdaq-listed company now holds a total of 480,000 BNB tokens, valued at $585.5 million by October 6. In late September, Kazakhstan announced the launch of the Alem Crypto Fund, its first crypto reserve fund, aimed at long-term investment in digital assets, with Binance Kazakhstan as a strategic partner. As part of the partnership, Alem Crypto Fund made BNB its first investment to highlight “the trust in the Binance ecosystem” and embark on “a new chapter for institutional recognition of cryptocurrencies in Kazakhstan.” Amid the surge in BNB-based funds, the altcoin has recorded a massive 36% rally in the last month, breaking past the $1,000 barrier and hitting multiple all-time highs (ATHs), reaching its most recent high of $1,370 on October 13. As of this writing, BNB is trading at $1,281, a 4% increase in the weekly timeframe.

Key takeaways Earnings momentum strengthens: The S&P 500’s projected Q3 2025 earnings growth was revised up to 8.0% year-on-year, marking a potential ninth straight quarter of earnings expansion.JPMorgan leads Financials upgrades: JPMorgan Chase (EPS revised to $4.78) and Progressive have driven the Financials sector’s upward revisions.Bullish technical setup intact: After a 5.35% correction, JPMorgan’s stock rebounded near its 50-day moving average, with momentum indicators turning positive. According to the latest FactSet data as of 3 October 2025, the projected year-on-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in Q3 stands at 8.0%, up from 7.3% at the start of the quarter (30 June 2025). If realized, this would mark the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the index. Six sectors have seen upward revisions to earnings estimates since 30 June, led by Information Technology (20.9% vs. 15.9%), Financials (11.0% vs. 7.6%), and Communication Services (3.2% vs. 0.8%) (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: S&P 500 and 11 sectors Q3 2025 earnings growth forecasts as of 3 Oct 2025 (Source: FactSet) JPMorgan Chase leads Financials in Q3 earnings upgrade revisions Within the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (EPS revised to $4.78 from $4.48) and Progressive (EPS revised to $4.81 from $3.53) have been key drivers behind the sector’s upward earnings revisions over the same period. JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report its Q3 results on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, before the US market opens. Based on TradingView data, its Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) are expected to come in at US$4.85, a growth increase of 10% from the same quarter a year ago, US$4.37 EPS Let’s now turn our focus to the technicals of JPMorgan JPMorgan managed to stage a bullish reversal, medium-term uptrend intact Fig. 2: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) medium-term trend as of 13 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 5.35% corrective decline from JPMorgan (JPM)’s all-time high of 318.01, recorded on 29 September 2025, appears to have reached a potential reversal zone, setting the stage for a fresh bullish impulsive upswing within its medium-term uptrend, which has remained intact since the 7 April 2025 low of 202.16 (see Fig. 2). On Friday, 10 October, JPMorgan’s share price staged a 2.4% bullish reversal (low to close) after briefly retesting its 50-day moving average, which continues to serve as a key intermediate support around 303.80, following a short-lived sell-off sparked by renewed US-China trade tensions. The daily RSI momentum indicator of JPM has also managed to stage a rebound after a retest on a key ascending trendline support at the 40 level and closer higher above the 50 level at 52 on Monday, 13 October 2025. These observations suggest a potential resurgence of medium-term bullish momentum conditions. In addition, the ratio charts (relative strength gauges) of the JPMorgan Chase/S&P 500 ETF and JPMorgan Chase/S&P 500 Financials sector ETF suggest potential outperformance of JPMorgan Chase against the S&P 500 and the Financials sector. JPM’s key medium-term pivotal support rests at 294.30 to maintain the bullish bias for another round of potential bullish up move sequence for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 328.00/336.90 and 352.00/360.00 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster) On the flip side, a break and a daily close below 294.30 key support invalidates the bullish scenario to trigger a deeper corrective decline sequence to expose 280.00 and even the major support of 269.50 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Macroeconomic Report Summary: Several macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Tuesday. In Germany, the final estimate of September inflation will be published. It should be noted that the second reading is almost always a formality. Additionally, ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the Eurozone will be released. While these are considered important indicators, we do not expect a strong market reaction. In the United Kingdom, the most interesting and significant reports will be released: unemployment, jobless claims, and wage growth figures. If the data are neutral and in line with forecasts, traders are unlikely to react. However, any surprising or extreme values could trigger significant movement. Fundamental Event Analysis: There are several fundamental events planned for today, but the primary focus is on Jerome Powell's speech. In recent weeks, we have heard from many representatives of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank— and learned nothing new. As a result, most speeches by central bank officials no longer have a significant influence on the currency markets. Powell himself has spoken several times recently, and his rhetoric has remained unchanged. There is no reason to expect a more "dovish" or "hawkish" tone from the Fed Chair, especially given the current situation in the U.S., where macroeconomic data are not being published due to the government shutdown. Without data, the Federal Reserve is unable to assess inflation trends, labor market conditions, or unemployment levels — prerequisites for adjusting its monetary policy stance. General Conclusions:During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to move chaotically and irrationally. For now, we are predominantly observing a decline in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, for which logical explanations are hard to find. Today, the euro may start a new upward movement toward the 1.1655–1.1666 area if it consolidates above the 1.1571–1.1584 zone. The British pound may continue rising after confirming a breakout above the trendline and the 1.3329–1.3331 area, targeting the 1.3413–1.3421 resistance level. Basic Trading System Rules:The strength of a signal is determined by how long it takes to form (bounce or breakout from a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.If two or more trades were opened based on false signals around a level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In flat markets, any pair can generate many false signals—or none at all. Either way, at the first signs of flat behavior, it's best to stop trading.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades must be closed manually after this window.On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used when there is good volatility and a confirmed trend based on a trend line or trend channel.If two levels are located too closely together (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance zone.After a trade moves 15-20 pips in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell orders. These levels are also appropriate for placing Take Profit orders.Red lines: trend lines or channels indicating the current trend and preferred trading direction.MACD indicator (14,22,3): histogram and signal line — a supplementary indicator that can also be used for signal confirmation.Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can strongly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp price reversals. Beginner traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a strict trading strategy and proper money management are key to long-term success in forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Solana started a fresh increase above the $188 zone. SOL price is now consolidating above $200 and might aim for more gains above the $208 zone. SOL price started a fresh upward move above the $185 and $188 levels against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $199 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend gains if it clears the $208 resistance zone. Solana Price Jumps Further Above $200 Solana price started a decent increase after it settled above the $172 zone, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed above the $180 level to enter a short-term positive zone. The price even smashed the $188 resistance. The bulls were able to push the price above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the main drop from the $225 swing high to the $155 low. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $199 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. Solana is now trading above $202 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $208 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the main drop from the $225 swing high to the $155 low. The next major resistance is near the $218 level. The main resistance could be $225. A successful close above the $225 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $242. Any more gains might send the price toward the $250 level. Another Pullback In SOL? If SOL fails to rise above the $208 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $199 zone and the trend line. The first major support is near the $195 level. A break below the $195 level might send the price toward the $190 support zone. If there is a close below the $190 support, the price could decline toward the $180 support in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $199 and $190. Major Resistance Levels – $208 and $218.

In a market shaken by liquidations and fear, one chart pattern on Dogecoin’s higher time frame continues to whisper a story most traders seem to be missing. According to crypto analyst Cantonese Cat, the monthly DOGE structure still forms the handle of a larger cup-and-handle formation that has been developing since 2021. Dogecoin Cup and Handle Still Targets $2 Despite Friday’s sharp crash across altcoins, the analyst argues there’s “no technical damage.” His chart shows that the handle wick retraced as far as the 0.382 logarithmic Fibonacci level before rebounding to hold the 0.618 retracement as support, preserving the symmetry of the broader bullish setup that points toward the long-discussed $2 extension zone. “This is a handle to the cup that wicked as far down as the 0.382 log fib but is currently holding 0.618 back as support. There is no technical damage in the greater scheme of things. Only emotional damage,” Cantonese Cat wrote via X. The chart maps a rounded base from the 2021–2023 decline into a mid-2023–2024 upswing that peaked at the 1.000 Fibonacci marker at $0.48442 in December 202, thereby completing the “cup.” Price has since carved the “handle,” with Friday’s crash extending below the 0.382 retracement at $0.11771 before recovering above the 0.618 at $0.20205. At the time of the snapshot, DOGE traded at $0.20568 on the monthly candle, down 11.74% for the period, with open, high, and low printed at $0.23304, $0.27043, and $0.10305, respectively. The immediate inflection remains the 0.618 pivot near $0.20205; sustained acceptance above that shelf keeps the handle constructive. Overhead, the 0.707 and 0.786 retracements—$0.24770 and $0.29681—frame the next resistance band. A close through those levels would re-expose the prior swing zone around the 0.886 at $0.37315 and the 1.000 at $0.48442. Cantonese Cat’s roadmap also includes standard Fibonacci extensions derived from the completed cup. The 1.272, 1.414, and 1.618 projections sit at $0.90288, $1.24968, and $1.99344, respectively. The latter aligns with the widely cited “$2” objective and is the technical anchor behind the analyst’s headline claim. On the downside, the 0.500 at $0.15422 and 0.382 at $0.11771 mark the key retracement supports already stress-tested by the month’s wick; a decisive monthly close below 0.382 would compromise the handle symmetry, but that condition has not been met on the current candle. Altcoin Momentum Also Still Intact To contextualize last week’s washout across altcoins, the analyst published a second monthly chart of the “OTHERS” market-cap index (total crypto market cap excluding the top 10). The panel overlays 20-period Bollinger Bands and shows a classic squeeze preceding an abrupt spike in realized volatility. According to the readout, the index opened the month near $300.19 billion, posting a high at $332.18 billion and a capitulation low at $156.59 billion before rebounding to $270.35 billion. Notably, that recovery carried back above the 20-month moving average—the Bollinger middle band—currently at $264.88 billion, after wicking to the lower band at $167.44 billion. The upper band resides at $362.31 billion. Arrows on the chart highlight a near-identical pattern during the March 2020 COVID deleveraging: a monthly lower-band wick within a band squeeze that preceded a sustained upside cycle once the candle reclaimed the mid-band. In commentary accompanying the charts, Cantonese Cat likened the weekend’s crypto drawdown to a“COVID-like deleveraging.” He wrote: “What happened this past weekend with altcoins is very similar to the deleveraging that happened in COVID based on technicals, with monthly Bollinger band squeeze and wicking down to lower Bollinger band. These moves are necessary for us to move up if the bull market is not over yet.” He also pointed to US small-cap equities—via the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)—as evidence of broader risk appetite, arguing that small caps’ V-shaped rebound from their own lower Bollinger Band and approach toward all-time highs helps explain why Bitcoin miners are outperforming spot cryptocurrencies. In his view, market-wide liquidity exists, but clearing excess leverage in altcoins was a precondition for the next leg higher. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.21124.

Monday Trade Review: 1H Chart of GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair showed absolutely no interesting movement on Monday. While the euro (for unknown reasons) declined during the first half of the day, the British pound remained stationary throughout the day. However, overnight into Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair managed to break through a descending trendline, indicating a logical and long-awaited end to the descending trend. Let us recall that in the past two weeks, the British currency had very few reasons to fall, while the U.S. dollar had few reasons to rise. We do not deny the necessity of occasional corrections—and on the daily timeframe, we do acknowledge the presence of a flat market. Therefore, the recent decline of the British pound can only be explained by technical factors. From a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective, the fall of the GBP/USD pair is entirely illogical. On Monday, there were no significant events or reports either in the UK or the U.S. 5M Chart of GBP/USD Pair On the 5-minute timeframe, a sell signal was formed on Monday in the area of 1.3329–1.3331, but throughout the day, the price moved more sideways than up or down. The expected growth did not occur, but the anticipated flat did. Thus, novice traders may have attempted to open positions, but by the start of the U.S. session, it had become clear that no substantial movement would take place. How to Trade on Tuesday:On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair continues to emerge from a descending trend. As mentioned before, there is no reason to expect a prolonged U.S. dollar rally, so from a medium-term perspective, we anticipate movement only to the upside. However, the market remains in a very strange condition. The pound continues to drop, and there is no rational explanation for it—other than technical ones. Price action is often illogical. On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair may attempt to continue its upward movement since the trendline has been broken. A consolidation above the 1.3329–1.3331 area will also allow for the opening of long positions, even though the market ignored this zone throughout Monday. On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at levels 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. For Tuesday, the UK is scheduled to release reports on unemployment, jobless claims, and wages. These reports are not the most critical under the current circumstances, but there aren't any others—due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Statistics remains on forced hiatus. In the U.S., a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled, which may be of some interest. Basic Trading System Rules:The strength of a signal is determined by how long it takes to form (bounce or breakout from a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.If two or more trades were opened based on false signals around a level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In flat markets, any pair can generate many false signals—or none at all. Either way, at the first signs of flat behavior, it's best to stop trading.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades must be closed manually after this window.On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used when there is good volatility and a confirmed trend based on a trend line or trend channel.If two levels are located too closely together (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance zone.After a trade moves 20 pips in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell orders. These levels are also appropriate for placing Take Profit orders.Red lines: trend lines or channels indicating the current trend and preferred trading direction.MACD indicator (14,22,3): histogram and signal line — a supplementary indicator that can also be used for signal confirmation.Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can strongly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp price reversals. Beginner traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a strict trading strategy and proper money management are key to long-term success in forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Monday Trade Review: 1H Chart of EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair mainly traded sideways on Monday. During the European session, a downward movement was observed, raising many questions from both a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective. No important or even secondary reports were published on Monday. There was also nothing noteworthy among fundamental events. On Friday, Donald Trump announced new tariffs on China—100%—which essentially marks a new escalation in the global trade war. Nevertheless, the dollar again barely declined in the foreign exchange market. For over two weeks in a row, the market has been ignoring all negative news for the U.S. currency. We believe the current downward movement of the pair is completely illogical — or perhaps a result of market-maker manipulation. The dollar has had no reason to strengthen. On the daily timeframe, a kind of flat trend is being maintained, and this is the only plausible explanation for the current decline in EUR/USD. 5M Chart of EUR/USD Pair On the 5-minute timeframe, a single buy signal was formally generated. During the European session, the price reached the 1.1584 level and rebounded from it. However, the pair's upward movement lasted only about 5 minutes. We had assumed that Monday would bring either a low-volatility flat or growth fueled by Trump's new tariffs. In fact, the European session already indicated that an upward move wasn't going to happen. How to Trade on Tuesday:On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair broke through the trend line several times, but the downward movement resumed for very questionable reasons. We view the current price action as completely illogical. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains disastrous for the U.S. dollar, so a strong rally in the USD is not expected. In our opinion, just as before, the American currency can only count on technical corrections — one of which we are currently observing. On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair may move in any direction. There's little logic behind current movements, and much noise. A correction could begin after a fairly extended decline, especially given that Donald Trump stirred the markets with his new tariffs. However, guessing is pointless. It's better to act on the trading signals generated on the 5-minute timeframe. On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. On Tuesday, the Eurozone will release German industrial production figures and ZEW economic sentiment indices. These are not considered top-tier data. In the U.S., Jerome Powell will deliver another speech, which could be interesting but likely won't be impactful due to the complete lack of macroeconomic data from the U.S. Basic Trading System Rules:The strength of a signal is determined by how long it takes to form (bounce or breakout from a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.If two or more trades were opened based on false signals around a level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In flat markets, any pair can generate many false signals—or none at all. Either way, at the first signs of flat behavior, it's best to stop trading.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades must be closed manually after this window.On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used when there is good volatility and a confirmed trend based on a trend line or trend channel.If two levels are located too closely together (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance zone.After a trade moves 15 pips in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell orders. These levels are also appropriate for placing Take Profit orders.Red lines: trend lines or channels indicating the current trend and preferred trading direction.MACD indicator (14,22,3): histogram and signal line — a supplementary indicator that can also be used for signal confirmation.Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can strongly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp price reversals. Beginner traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a strict trading strategy and proper money management are key to long-term success in forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP price started a fresh increase above $2.450. The price is now showing positive signs but faces a major hurdle near the $2.620 level. XRP price is attempting a recovery wave above the $2.50 zone. The price is now trading above $2.520 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.650 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh decline if it settles below $2.50. XRP Price Struggles Near Resistance XRP price found support and started a strong recovery wave above $2.20, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above the $2.250 and $2.320 levels to enter a positive zone. There was a decent increase above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $1.40 swing low. However, the price seems to be facing a major barrier near the $2.650 level. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.650 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading above $2.520 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $2.60 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.650 level and the trend line. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $1.40 swing low. A clear move above the $2.650 resistance might send the price toward the $2.70 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.720 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $2.80. Another Drop? If XRP fails to clear the $2.650 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.550 level. The next major support is near the $2.50 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.50 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.30. The next major support sits near the $2.2680 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $2.220. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now near the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.50 and $2.30. Major Resistance Levels – $2.60 and $2.650.

Following Bitcoin’s (BTC) brutal sell-off on October 9, which saw the top cryptocurrency by market cap flash crash to $102,000 before recovering most of its losses, on-chain signals now show that there has been a noticeable decline in the Bitcoin network usage for most of 2025. Bitcoin On-Chain Fundamentals Losing Strength? According to a CryptoQant Quicktake post by contributor TeddyVision, Bitcoin’s Network Activity Index has been consistently trending below its 365-day moving average (MA) for most of 2025. The decline shows a structural slowdown in the Bitcoin network’s on-chain usage. For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin Network Activity Index measures how actively users are interacting on-chain – tracking metrics like transaction counts, active addresses, and transfer volumes. A rising index suggests growing organic usage and adoption, while a declining one indicates slowing network engagement. To recall, the Bitcoin network activity surged ahead of price back in 2023-24. At the time, Bitcoin price witnessed organic expansion in price, primarily driven by genuine on-chain usage. However, the trend has changed significantly in 2025. For the most part, this year saw Bitcoin liquidity circulating off-chain, while on-chain traffic has dwindled. As a result, the Network Activity Index has tumbled below the 365-day MA. That said, BTC price has held between $100,000 to $120,000, creating a widening gap between the digital asset’s valuation and network fundamentals. The CryptoQuant analyst remarked: Capital keeps rotating, but not expanding – most flows happen off-chain, through ETFs, custodians, and synthetic exposure, while genuine on-chain demand remains subdued. TeddyVision stated that the recent capital rotation in the Bitcoin market is not indicative of its strength, but rather it is just “momentum running on fumes.” The analyst added that when the Bitcoin network usage stagnates while price keeps on increasing, valuations stop reflecting adoption and start tracking assumptions. To conclude, although Bitcoin is not collapsing just yet, the fall in its network usage activity speaks volumes about its falling fundamentals. That said, all may not be over for BTC just yet. In an X post, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto noted that the Bitcoin bull market is not over yet. The analyst stated that a Bitcoin bear market will only start if it loses the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the weekly chart. Q4 2025 Bullish For BTC? While the recent flash crash to $102,000 may have spooked BTC bulls, several industry experts are still confident that the digital asset will continue to make new record highs in the last quarter of 2025. Crypto market expert Ash Crypto recently predicted that BTC is likely to hit as high as $180,000 in Q4 2025. Similarly, fresh data from Binance suggests that BTC could be on track to $130,000. In the same vein, noted crypto analyst Egrag recently forecasted that BTC only needs a minor catalyst to surge to $175,000. At press time, BTC trades at $114,076, up 0.8% in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum price started a fresh recovery above $4,120. ETH is now showing positive signs and might rise further toward the $4,400 level. Ethereum started a recovery wave above the $4,000 and $4,120 levels. The price is trading above $4,120 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $4,150 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it trades above $4,320. Ethereum Price Gains Traction Ethereum price started a recovery wave above the $3,850 level, like Bitcoin. ETH price formed a base and was able to recover above the $4,000 level. The price cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the main drop from the $4,758 swing high to the $3,422 low. The bulls were able to push the price above the $4,200 pivot level. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $4,150 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,200 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,250 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,400 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,440 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the main drop from the $4,758 swing high to the $3,422 low. A clear move above the $4,400 resistance might send the price toward the $4,500 resistance. An upside break above the $4,500 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,550 resistance zone or even $4,650 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,300 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,150 level and the trend line. The first major support sits near the $4,120 zone. A clear move below the $4,120 support might push the price toward the $4,050 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,950 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,880. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,150 Major Resistance Level – $4,300

The Stablecoin market is once again proving to be one of the most important indicators for crypto recovery after one of the most violent crashes in recent history. On Friday, Bitcoin plunged to $103,000 within minutes, triggering a wave of panic across the market as overleveraged positions were wiped out and Altcoins lost more than 80% of their value in the same period. The sudden correction left investors questioning whether this marked the end of the bull phase or simply a reset before the next leg up. Despite the chaos, key onchain data paints a more optimistic picture. Top analyst Darkfost highlights that the supply of ERC-20 stablecoins continues to grow, especially on Binance, the exchange that remains the undisputed leader in trading volume. This surge in stablecoin reserves suggests that liquidity is quietly rebuilding beneath the surface, as investors prepare for re-entry rather than full-scale retreat. In crypto cycles, rising stablecoin balances often act as a precursor to renewed buying pressure, indicating that capital is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right moment to return. As volatility cools down, the stablecoin supply could play a decisive role in shaping the market’s next major move. Liquidity Surges As Binance Hits Record High Reserves Darkfost shared data showing that the ERC-20 stablecoin supply on Binance has seen a massive surge over the past two months, rising by $10 billion since August, from $32 billion to $42 billion. This marks the highest level of ERC-20 stablecoin reserves ever recorded on the exchange, a significant milestone that signals renewed liquidity inflows into the market. This sharp increase in stablecoin reserves suggests two major dynamics at play. First, investors continue to deploy capital into the crypto market through stablecoins, a common precursor to renewed accumulation and trading activity. Second, Binance’s dominance in global trading volume remains unchallenged, with increasing user participation demanding more available liquidity on the platform. While part of this increase may stem from investors rotating capital back into stablecoins after the recent market crash, this explanation alone doesn’t capture the full picture. Binance typically adjusts its reserves in response to active trading behavior, meaning this spike is more likely linked to rising demand and capital readiness than to risk aversion. Despite recent volatility and sharp liquidations, the data show that liquidity is flowing back in, positioning the market for a potential rebound. If this trend continues, stablecoin accumulation on Binance could serve as the foundation for the next major leg up across Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem. Stablecoin Dominance Spikes: Capital Rotates After Market Crash The chart shows a sharp rise in stablecoin dominance, which recently spiked above 9% before cooling to around 8.15%. This move reflects a rapid flight to liquidity following last week’s extreme volatility, when Bitcoin plunged below $105K and altcoins saw significant losses. Historically, such spikes in stablecoin dominance indicate that traders are exiting risk assets to hold stablecoins, waiting for market stabilization before redeploying capital. Interestingly, the pullback from 9% to 8% suggests that the panic phase may already be easing. The market appears to be entering a reaccumulation phase, where stable capital is preparing for the next major move. On a technical level, stablecoin dominance remains well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling persistent strength in liquidity reserves. If dominance continues to consolidate near these highs while Bitcoin stabilizes, it could create the foundation for renewed inflows into risk assets. In other words, money hasn’t left the market—it’s waiting on the sidelines. Stablecoin dominance above 8% generally marks periods of strong capital positioning, often preceding new market uptrends. The current setup, therefore, highlights growing investor caution but also a buildup of dry powder that could soon reenter the market. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Boa noite, traders. Iniciamos a semana com a confirmação de que a crise da paralisação ("shutdown") do governo dos EUA está se aprofundando, com alertas vindo dos mais altos níveis de Wall Street e do próprio governo americano. O Goldman Sachs emitiu um alerta de que o atual desligamento pode se tornar um dos mais longos da história. Corroborando a gravidade, o Secretário do Tesouro dos EUA, Bessent, declarou hoje que a situação "já está se tornando séria" e "começando a afetar a economia real". Na minha visão, estas declarações marcam o fim da esperança de uma resolução rápida. O mercado agora precisa precificar um período prolongado de disfunção política e o consequente impacto negativo no crescimento econômico. Este é um catalisador de aversão ao risco de primeira ordem. Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro, ExpertFX School Neste cenário de caos político e deterioração econômica, o capital busca refúgio em ativos reais. A performance recente do ouro é um reflexo direto desta busca por segurança. A seguir, apresentamos nossa análise completa, desde a visão de longo prazo até a estrutura técnica de curto prazo. Parte 1: A Visão de Longo Prazo — A Tese para $5.000 - $6.000 Quando um dos maiores bancos de investimento do mundo, o Bank of America, emite uma previsão, o mercado presta atenção. A análise divulgada recentemente vai além de uma simples projeção; é um estudo cíclico e histórico que aponta para uma meta audaciosa: ouro a $6.000 por onça até a primavera de 2026. 1. A Metodologia: Desvendando a Relação Ouro/Petróleo A base da análise do BofA é a relação histórica entre o preço do ouro e o do petróleo. Ao estudar os ciclos de alta passados, o banco descobriu que eles duraram em média 43 meses e viram o rácio aumentar cerca de 300%. Ao extrapolar esse padrão para o ciclo atual, chega-se à projeção de US$ 6.000/onça. 2. Análise de Igor Pereira: Por Que Esse Modelo Faz Sentido Agora? Na minha visão, a análise do BofA é a quantificação cíclica da "Tempestade Perfeita" que já está em andamento: dívida global recorde, pivô dos bancos centrais, instabilidade geopolítica (agora exacerbada pelo desligamento) e uma demanda implacável por ativos de refúgio. Minha própria projeção, baseada em modelos de fluxo de capital e na deterioração fiscal acelerada, aponta para um alvo mais conservador, porém ainda massivo, de $5.000 por onça entre o terceiro e o quarto trimestre de 2026. O consenso institucional é claro: a escala da reavaliação do ouro será histórica. Parte 2: A Confirmação Técnica — Explosão do "Markup" Enquanto as teses de longo prazo nos dão o destino, a análise técnica de curto prazo nos mostra a força da jornada. E a ação de preço das últimas horas foi uma demonstração de força extraordinária. A Nova Tese (Reacumulação): Na linguagem Wyckoff, isso significa que a estrutura era, na verdade, uma Reacumulação complexa, onde o "dinheiro inteligente" absorveu a realização de lucros para iniciar a próxima fase de alta, conhecida como "Markup". O Estado Atual e Níveis-Chave: O ouro está agora em plena fase de "Markup" e descoberta de preços, estabelecendo novas máximas históricas acima de $4.150, este nível pode determinar um novo impulso histórico de alta ou correção imbalance de curto prazo. Suporte Crítico Imediato: O antigo topo, na região de $4057, agora se torna o primeiro grande piso de suporte. Zonas de Demanda Chave: As áreas em torno de $3998 e $3972 são os próximos níveis de suporte cruciais em qualquer pullback mais profundo. Alvos de Alta 📈: Estando em território inexplorado, acima de $4150, o próximo grande alvo a ser observado é a marca de $4.200. Analisando o terminal de fluxo de ordens do ouro (XAU/USD) do Clube ExpertFX, a mensagem da microestrutura do mercado é clara: os compradores agressivos continuam no controle total do curto prazo, impulsionando o preço em uma forte tendência de alta. Principais Observações do Terminal: 1. Pressão Compradora Dominante (CVD): O Delta de Volume Cumulativo (CVD) na parte inferior do gráfico mostra que o volume de compra a mercado (352.5k) é quase o dobro do volume de venda a mercado (187.0k). Análise: Isso significa que há uma urgência e convicção muito maiores por parte dos compradores, que estão dispostos a "atravessar o spread" para garantir suas posições, absorvendo a oferta dos vendedores. 2. A "Muralha" de Venda em $4170 (Resistência): O Livro de Ordens (COB), na coluna direita, revela uma grande e densa "muralha" de ordens de venda limitada (liquidez) concentradas na região de $4170. Análise: Este é o principal alvo magnético para o preço e o maior obstáculo para a continuação da alta. O mercado provavelmente será atraído para esta zona, mas rompê-la exigirá um esforço significativo dos compradores. 3. Suporte Imediato: Abaixo do preço atual, as ordens de compra mais significativas (suporte) estão agrupadas em torno de $4130 - $4125. A estrutura de curto prazo é inequivocamente altista. O caminho de menor resistência é continuar subindo para testar a grande zona de resistência e liquidez em $4170. A estratégia de maior probabilidade é buscar por oportunidades de compra em qualquer recuo em direção à zona de suporte de $4130, alinhando-se com a força dominante do CVD. Apenas uma perda decisiva deste suporte colocaria o forte momentum de alta de curto prazo em dúvida. A batalha da sessão será entre a forte agressão compradora e a muralha de venda que os aguarda. Conclusão de Igor Pereira: Sincronia Perfeita A semana se inicia com uma sincronia perfeita entre a análise fundamental e a técnica. A crise do "shutdown" em Washington fornece o combustível fundamental para a fuga para a segurança, enquanto a ação de preço de curto prazo confirma essa tese de forma brutal, invalidando padrões de baixa e demonstrando uma força compradora implacável. A mensagem é inequívoca. A tendência é de alta em todos os timeframes. A estratégia permanece a mesma, mas com convicção redobrada: cada recuo para as novas zonas de suporte ($4057, $3998) é uma oportunidade estratégica para se alinhar com o que está se provando ser um dos mais poderosos mercados de alta da nossa geração.

EUR/USD Markets are gradually recovering, and gold has even accelerated its growth. The 1.1605 level, which the price "ignored," has been removed. Currently, the euro is consolidating in the middle of the range formed by the 1.1495 support level and the MACD line on the daily timeframe. However, this consolidation is occurring below both declining indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator remains in a downward trend zone. Therefore, if the price falls below Friday's low of 1.1543, it will complete the full downward movement that began on September 17, reaching support at 1.1495. Conversely, if the price breaks above yesterday's high (either today or tomorrow), it will aim for an attack on the MA line at 1.1662. On the four-hour chart, the price's intent to continue rising appears more clearly. Here, the Marlin oscillator is attempting to move above the median neutral line. This would provide solid support for the price as it contends with the first resistance at 1.1627 — the MACD line, which nearly coincides with yesterday's high. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD The British pound declined slightly yesterday, but this morning it is showing growth. This signals a price consolidation near the resistance level of 1.3369. A breakout above this level will not greatly ease the situation for the bulls, as the MACD line lies ahead near the 1.3400 mark. However, breaking above the MACD line opens the path to the target level of 1.3525. The Marlin oscillator may not have time to move into positive territory by the moment the price reaches the MACD line, which underscores the difficulty of further growth. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory. The price is nearly ready to challenge the 1.3369 level. The MACD line has approached this level, significantly strengthening it, which means the bulls' first attempt may fail, resulting in an extension of the consolidation phase. Consolidating above 1.3369 will allow for preparation to break through 1.3400, which is the MACD line on the daily chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Natural Gas (NG) The decline in natural gas prices stopped yesterday at the indicator lines of the Balance and MACD lines on the daily scale. The lower shadow pierced the support level at 3.086. The Marlin oscillator has dipped into negative territory but not deeply, likely preparing to move sideways along the zero neutral line, as it did from September 23 to 26. If the sideways oscillator movement drags on, the price may remain in the 3.086–3.333 range for an extended period (up to three weeks). Possible price movement paths are sketched on the chart. For now, the main trend is assumed to be upward—both in the short term toward the 3.333 level and after the consolidation phase. However, if the price settles below the MACD line, which coincides with yesterday's low at 3.028, the market will aim for 2.847, and potentially 2.643 afterward. Given the nearby support level, it's advisable to wait for today's candle to close. If it closes white (bullish), then the mentioned scenario should be taken as the base case. On the four-hour scale, the situation is turning distinctly neutral. The MACD line is flattening out horizontally, sitting precisely at the 3.333 level. The price has hovered around 3.086 for the past nine candles. The Marlin oscillator is currently rising but is unlikely to cross into positive territory in the near term. We await further developments. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin price corrected losses and traded above the $114,200 level. BTC is now struggling and might face hurdles near the $116,000 level. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $114,000 resistance level. The price is trading below $115,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $119,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $112,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Hurdles Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $110,000 pivot level. BTC recovered above the $112,500 and $113,200 resistance levels. The price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the main drop from the $123,750 swing high to the $100,000 low. The bulls even pushed the price above the $114,000 resistance level. However, there are many hurdles on the upside. Bitcoin is now trading below $116,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $119,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $115,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $116,000 level. The next resistance could be $118,150 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the main drop from the $123,750 swing high to the $100,000 low. A close above the $118,150 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $119,250 resistance and the trend line. Any more gains might send the price toward the $120,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $122,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $115,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $113,600 level. The first major support is near the $112,500 level. The next support is now near the $111,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $110,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $113,500, followed by $112,500. Major Resistance Levels – $115,000 and $116,000.

The GBP/USD currency pair retreated slightly downward on Monday, though not significantly or for long. In principle, we continue to expect just one thing – a new drop in the dollar. We immediately advise traders to switch to the daily time frame and confirm that the upward trend remains intact. In recent months, the market has been in a flat phase. As we've mentioned before, flat markets are a time when major players build new positions. What kind of positions can they be forming in the current circumstances? Buying dollars? Unlikely. That means selling dollars. If that's the case, then a new wave of the upward trend is only a matter of time. The fundamental backdrop remains not just negative for the dollar, but outright absurd. Recall that in addition to the trade war, the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, Trump's pressure on the Fed and half the world, internal strife, ongoing clashes between civilians and police or military due to new Trump initiatives (such as on immigration), controversial tax, subsidy, and spending laws—America is now experiencing a "shutdown." Democrats refused to approve the Republican budget plan for next year, so the year cannot begin until the U.S. President moderates his ambitions. However, much has already been said about the "shutdown," and the dollar is currently reacting more to the flat market than to the shutdown. But China's "knight's move" – placing restrictions on the export of rare earth metals – is a bold step. China is the only country in the world negotiating with Washington on equal footing. It has once again made it clear it's ready to negotiate, though the list of contentious issues is long. Still, Beijing is unlikely to sign the same kind of "enslaving" deals as Japan or the EU. China also understands that the stronger their position at the negotiation table, the better. So China is doing exactly what the U.S. does – playing every trump card it has. The U.S.'s main trump card is a single one – a wealthy, massive consumer market that China certainly doesn't want to lose. China's trump cards are weaker, but there are more of them. Most American factories, remember, are located in China, which now not only has a cheap labor force but also technology, top managers, and engineers. China has not wasted time and is closing in on the U.S. in the race for global dominance. This explains Trump's fervent desire to curb the ambitions of China by any means necessary. In the meantime, the Fed can calmly go on vacation until the U.S. shutdown ends. The next meeting of the Fed is scheduled for October 29, and it will definitely take place. Only one question remains – on what basis will the Monetary Committee decide on the rate? The inflation report won't be published this week, and the labor and unemployment reports didn't come out last week. Of course, the Fed can lower the rate once again "in advance," since it is evident to everyone that one round of monetary easing is not enough to save the sinking labor market. But even so, it will be a very interesting meeting. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 93 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." Therefore, on Tuesday, October 14, we expect movement within the range bounded by levels 1.3235 and 1.3421. The higher linear regression channel is pointed upward, indicating a clear uptrend. The CCI indicator has once again (for the third time) entered the oversold zone, signaling a potential resumption of the upward trend. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3306 S2 – 1.3245 S3 – 1.3184 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3367 R2 – 1.3428 R3 – 1.3489 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD currency pair is in a correction, but its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect growth from the U.S. currency. Thus, long positions with targets of 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain much more relevant while the price is above the moving average. Price movement below the moving average allows for consideration of small short positions with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3235 based on technical grounds. From time to time, the U.S. dollar shows corrections (as it is now), but for a true strengthening trend, it needs real signs of the end of the trade war or other global positive factors. Explanation of Chart Tools:Linear Regression Channels – help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.Moving Average (20,0, smoothed) – indicates short-term direction and defines the preferred trading bias.Murray Levels – serve as goalposts for price movements and corrections.Volatility Bands (red lines) – represent the expected daily trading range based on recent volatility.CCI Indicator – when it enters oversold (< -250) or overbought (> +250) territory, a trend reversal is likely.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair showed no noteworthy movement on Monday, largely remaining stagnant throughout the day. A slight dip occurred in the first half of the session, perhaps triggered—as always—by Donald Trump. Honestly, we considered the possibility that the U.S. dollar would begin weakening right at the market open. But either the market has grown tired of Trump's recurring tariff rhetoric, or it simply doesn't believe that the U.S. president will stick to his hardline stance on China. In either case, the dollar avoided the fate that seemed likely. Recall that on Friday, the U.S. president announced 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports starting November 1—a decision made in response to China's move to tighten export controls on rare-earth metals, where it holds a "near-monopoly" status. Trump then accused China of trying to take the world hostage and threatened to escalate tariffs. But by Saturday, he walked back his tone, saying he had no plans to trigger a Great Depression in China and that "everything would be fine." It remains unclear what prompted such a shift in stance; as of now, there are no new negotiations scheduled between Washington and Beijing. In essence, Trump made a bold move—a "knight's leap"—only to retreat on the very next turn. Every trader understands that Trump's words need to be taken with a grain of salt—perhaps eight. Just because he says he will impose tariffs doesn't mean that he actually will. That's likely why the dollar evaded the sharp drop many expected. Still, we want to remind readers that the dollar's fate, over the medium term, seems all but sealed. Currently, there are no valid reasons for the market to favor the USD. The European Central Bank has completed its monetary easing cycle, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates further. While the Fed may lower rates once or twice more in 2025, the pace of rate cuts could accelerate next year—especially if Jerome Powell steps down as Fed Chair. Moreover, we believe Trump's trade war is far from over. Tariffs continue to be his primary tool for political and economic leverage. If any country dares to defy him, more tariffs are almost certain. Trump holds little sway over countries that have little to no trade ties with the U.S., like Russia, or those that historically hold anti-American sentiment, like Venezuela. Against Venezuela, Trump might even go as far as wielding military threats. The daily timeframe shows that, firstly, the uptrend remains intact, and secondly, the pair has been in a sideways range (flat) for several months. This means further dollar strengthening is possible—but only within the bounds of this flat. The average volatility for EUR/USD over the last five trading days, as of October 14, stands at 77 pips, which is classified as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1496 and 1.1650 on Tuesday. The higher linear regression channel is pointing upward, which still indicates the presence of a bullish trend. The CCI indicator has just entered oversold territory, potentially signaling a new wave of upward momentum. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1536S2 – 1.1414S3 – 1.1353Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1597R2 – 1.1658R3 – 1.1719Trading Recommendations:EUR/USD remains in a corrective phase, but the broader uptrend is still intact, as seen on all higher timeframes. The U.S. dollar continues to experience strong pressure from Donald Trump's trade policies, and he shows no sign of backing down. Although the dollar has strengthened recently, the reasons for it appear ambiguous at best. The sideways range seen on the daily chart explains it all. If the price remains below the moving average, small short positions are possible with targets at 1.1536 and 1.1496, based purely on technical conditions. If the price rises above the moving average, long positions remain valid with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902, in line with the continuing upward trend. Explanation of Chart Tools:Linear Regression Channels – help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.Moving Average (20,0, smoothed) – indicates short-term direction and defines the preferred trading bias.Murray Levels – serve as goalposts for price movements and corrections.Volatility Bands (red lines) – represent the expected daily trading range based on recent volatility.CCI Indicator – when it enters oversold (< -250) or overbought (> +250) territory, a trend reversal is likely.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5M Analysis On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair declined slightly once again, but the moment of truth is approaching. Price action is now very close to the second successive descending trendline, which could be breached as early as this week. The Ichimoku Kijun-sen line is also nearby, so both technical barriers may be overcome simultaneously. We continue to view the current downturn in the pair as completely illogical and unjustified. Over the past 2–3 weeks, there hasn't been enough negative news for the British pound—or positive data for the dollar—to warrant such sustained pressure on GBP/USD. Many of the reasons behind this move seem fabricated. For instance, the political crisis in France has nothing to do with the pound—and such "crises" in the EU occur every couple of months. Therefore, we again emphasize to traders that the daily timeframe shows the formation of a broad flat pattern, while the broader 2025 uptrend remains intact. We continue to expect further gains in the British pound. Market participants are actively ignoring events that are fundamentally bearish for the dollar, likely due to large-scale price manipulation by market makers. These big players may be giving the illusion of a downtrend to encourage unwarranted selling. On the 5-minute chart, not a single trading signal was generated on Monday. Therefore, opening any positions was not advisable. Even on the lowest timeframes, market movement is choppy at best—and lacks any clear logic. COT Report COT (Commitment of Traders) data for the British pound shows that commercial trader sentiment has been shifting frequently over recent years. The red and blue lines—representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders—are constantly crossing and generally hover near the zero line. Currently, both lines are nearly aligned, indicating a relatively equal number of buy and sell positions. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken, mainly due to Donald Trump's policies. As a result, market maker interest in the pound has become less relevant. The trade war will continue in one form or another for the foreseeable future. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates over the next year, meaning downward pressure on the dollar will persist. According to the latest data, non-commercial traders opened 3,700 new long positions and closed 900 shorts during the reporting week. Thus, the net position grew by 4,600 contracts. The British pound has rallied significantly in 2025, primarily due to Trump's agenda. If and when this factor fades, the dollar may regain strength—but when that will happen, no one knows. In any case, net positioning trends suggest more consistent dollar weakness than pound weakness. GBP/USD 1H Analysis On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to form a downward trend. This only reinforces how disconnected the movement is from any fundamental basis. The dollar still lacks a major reason to strengthen—so we expect the 2025 uptrend to resume under almost any macroeconomic scenario. For now, the market is waiting for the price to break the trendline and ideally confirm a close above the Ichimoku Kijun-sen line. On October 14, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B (1.3424) and Kijun-sen (1.3356) lines may also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at break-even when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. On Tuesday, the U.K. will publish relatively important reports on unemployment, jobless claims, and wage growth. In the U.S., Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, but no impactful commentary is expected. Trading RecommendationsToday, traders can plan entries based on the 1.3369–1.3377 zone or the 1.3307 level. A bounce from 1.3307 would provide a good setup for long positions and may even signal the start of a new uptrend on the hourly chart. A confirmed drop below 1.3307 would make short positions relevant with a near-term target at 1.3212. Chart Legend:Support and resistance levels (thick red lines) – indicate where movement may pause or reverse. They are not automatic trade signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B – strong indicator lines from the Ichimoku system, adapted from the 4-hour chart to the 1-hour chart.Extremum levels (thin red lines) – past significant highs and lows; potential signal zones.Yellow lines – trendlines, channels, and other technical patterns.COT Indicator 1 – Shows net position data by trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5M Analysis On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair once again traded lower, despite having no fundamental reason to do so. There were no economic reports, and no meaningful speeches occurred on the first trading day of the week. Only Donald Trump, who triggered crashes in both crypto and equity markets on Friday, surfaced to say that things "will be fine" between the U.S. and China. Thanks for that. As before, we view the recent strength in the U.S. dollar as completely illogical. There are no fundamental or macroeconomic justifications for dollar appreciation at this time. The situation is starting to resemble the recent crypto crash, when prices dropped dramatically in just 15 minutes without a clear cause—later attributed to Trump's tariff announcements. It doesn't matter if he rolls out tariffs every other day; moves of that scale still surprise. Thus, we interpret the current decline in EUR/USD simply as a phase to be waited out. If technicals and fundamentals both pointed to a decline, there would be no question. But selling the pair while every indicator and report suggests "buy" is not the wisest strategy. Intraday short positions are still valid—EUR/USD can fall locally for several more weeks. However, in the medium term, the outlook remains bullish. On the 5-minute chart, two sell signals were generated yesterday. The price first bounced off the critical line, then broke through the 1.1604–1.1615 area. These setups allowed traders to open short positions and manually close them for a profit by the evening. COT Report The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report is dated September 23. It clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had long remained bullish. Bears briefly took over at the end of 2024, only to quickly lose control again. Since Trump began his second term as U.S. president, the dollar has consistently fallen. We cannot guarantee that the dollar will continue to decline with 100% certainty, but current global conditions suggest that outcome is likely. We still see no fundamental reasons for euro strength, but numerous factors support continued dollar weakness. The global downtrend remains intact, but at this point, historical price direction over the past 17 years is increasingly irrelevant. Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar might start to rise—but events so far suggest the conflict is far from over. The potential loss of Fed independence remains a major bearish factor for the U.S. currency. As shown in the chart, the red and blue lines (longs vs. shorts) indicate that the bullish trend continues. During the last reporting week, non-commercial longs decreased by 800 contracts, while shorts increased by 2,600. As a result, the net position declined by 3,400 contracts. EUR/USD 1H Analysis On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD may have completed its downward trend last week. The trendline has been broken, and now the euro needs to consolidate above the Kijun-sen line. If it does, we can expect further upside—at least up to the Senkou Span B line. We believe the euro has long been overdue for a stronger rally. On October 14, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1712) and Kijun-sen (1.1614) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to place a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price has moved 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect you from possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Tuesday, Germany will publish final inflation data for September and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. However, all three reports are considered secondary, and any market reaction is expected to be mild. Later in the day, Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, though no major remarks are anticipated at this time. Trading RecommendationsOn Tuesday, traders can trade within the 1.1604–1.1615 area and from the 1.1534 level. A confirmed breakout above the Kijun-sen line is now required to initiate a sustained uptrend. Otherwise, the dollar may continue its unjustified rise. Chart Legend:Support and resistance levels (thick red lines) – indicate where movement may pause or reverse. They are not automatic trade signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B – strong indicator lines from the Ichimoku system, adapted from the 4-hour chart to the 1-hour chart.Extremum levels (thin red lines) – past significant highs and lows; potential signal zones.Yellow lines – trendlines, channels, and other technical patterns.COT Indicator 1 – Shows net position data by trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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An analyst has revealed the key Bitcoin charts that could be to keep an eye on while Bitcoin is slowly making recovery from its latest crash. These Bitcoin Charts Could Be Ones To Watch In a shock to the market, Bitcoin ended last week with a steep crash, falling from above $122,000 to below $110,000. The coin managed to make some recovery on Sunday, and that rebound has held so far into Monday. However, while BTC appears to be rebuilding its structure, its direction remains unclear, as noted by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X thread. Maartunn has shared a few key charts that could determine whether the recovery will hold or fade. First, the analyst has revealed a chart that points out a similarity between the recent Bitcoin price action and the November 2021 bull market top. As displayed in the above graph, BTC broke above its weekly resistance with the recent price rally, but immediately fell below the line after the crash. A similar failed breakout also took place back in November 2021. According to Maartunn, such a trend typically signals exhaustion. On-chain data also suggests the cryptocurrency is currently trapped below a notable resistance level, as the chart for the UPRD shows. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) here is an indicator that tells us about the amount of Bitcoin that was last purchased/transferred at the various price levels that the asset has visited in its history. From the metric’s chart, it’s visible that a significant amount of supply has its cost basis between $117,500 to $120,000. The holders of these coins would naturally be underwater right now, so there is a chance that if BTC recovers to their break-even level, they might panic sell, fearing going into losses again. Given the scale of the supply involved, selling pressure of this kind could be notable on a retest of the range, potentially making it a major resistance barrier for the asset. A support level that could be key is the average cost basis or Realized Price of the short-term holders (STHs). The line has historically helped the asset find a rebound during bullish trends, with three instances of the trend occurring within the last six weeks alone. The analyst has warned, however, that conviction among the cohort is fading. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio suggests profitability among the Bitcoin STHs has been following a long-term decline, with the boundary level of 1 again being retested. “If this level breaks, expect downside. If it holds, it confirms demand — but manage risk accordingly!” noted Maartunn in the thread. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $114,100, down over 8% in the last seven days.

Ethereum is showing early signs of recovery after a dramatic sell-off on Friday that sent prices plunging to $3,450. The drop came amid what analysts describe as the largest liquidation event in crypto market history, wiping out billions in leveraged positions across major exchanges. While bulls briefly lost control during the panic, ETH has since begun to stabilize, with renewed buying interest emerging near key demand zones. Onchain analyst Maartunn highlighted that leverage is once again building up on Ethereum, signaling that traders are returning to the market following the reset. According to his data, open interest on ETH surged significantly over the past 24 hours — a sign that speculative activity is resuming as volatility cools. This renewed leverage could set the stage for another decisive move, either fueling a short-term relief rally or inviting further liquidations if momentum fades. The coming days will be crucial for Ethereum, as bulls attempt to reclaim the $4,000 level to confirm a sustainable recovery. Market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, with onchain data showing large holders and institutions continuing to accumulate ETH despite recent turbulence — a potential signal of long-term confidence in the asset’s resilience. Leverage Returns to Ethereum: A Risky Revival In Market Activity According to Maartunn, Ethereum’s Open Interest has surged by +8.2% within the past 24 hours — a clear sign that leverage is flowing back into the market. This rapid rise comes just days after the largest liquidation event in crypto history, where overleveraged traders were wiped out during the sudden crash. Now, it seems many are trying to “trade their money back,” reigniting short-term volatility and speculation across exchanges. Maartunn notes that while these so-called “revenge pumps” often create strong intraday rallies, they rarely sustain long-term momentum. Historically, around 75% of similar leverage-driven recoveries tend to revert, leading to renewed pullbacks once liquidity and funding rates normalize. Only about 25% manage to extend into lasting uptrends, typically when supported by fresh spot buying or renewed institutional inflows. This data underscores the precarious balance Ethereum currently faces. The jump in Open Interest signals revived market participation, but also introduces the risk of another wave of forced liquidations if traders overextend their positions. For now, ETH’s short-term recovery remains largely fueled by derivatives activity rather than spot demand. The next few days will be pivotal in determining Ethereum’s direction. If price holds above the $4,000 region with sustained volume, it could confirm that bulls are regaining control. However, a sudden drop in Open Interest or sharp funding spikes could signal that the rally is overextended — setting the stage for another correction. Ethereum Rebounds, But Resistance Looms Ahead Ethereum is showing a solid recovery after last week’s dramatic sell-off that drove prices down to the $3,450 level. The daily chart shows that ETH quickly rebounded from the 200-day moving average (red line), confirming it as a major area of demand. Price is now consolidating near $4,150, attempting to build momentum after a strong bullish candle on high volume — a potential sign that buyers are regaining control. However, ETH faces immediate resistance near the $4,250–$4,300 zone, which coincides with the 50-day moving average (blue line). This area previously acted as strong support, and reclaiming it would be essential for confirming a shift back into bullish structure. The 100-day moving average (green line) is now flattening, reflecting the market’s cautious sentiment following the massive liquidation event. If bulls manage to sustain price action above $4,000, the next targets lie near $4,500 and eventually $4,750. Conversely, failure to hold the 200-day MA could open the door to a deeper retest of $3,600 or lower. For now, Ethereum’s recovery remains technically constructive, but it must overcome these resistance levels to confirm that the recent rebound is more than just a short-term reaction to oversold conditions. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com