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Boa noite, traders e membros, Hoje, vamos confrontar uma realidade que poucos na indústria cripto estão dispostos a admitir: o ouro não é apenas um competidor; ele é a maior ameaça estrutural ao Bitcoin. A narrativa de entusiasmo em torno do Bitcoin prosperou em um período de consolidação do ouro. Mas agora, com o ouro em plena ascensão global, o ímpeto para a compra de Bitcoin está diminuindo, projetando uma fase de estagnação ou lateralização para as criptomoedas no curto prazo. Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro, Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE Este não é um momento para achismos ou otimismo infundado. É hora de analisar os fatos, os dados macroeconômicos e a psicologia de um mercado que está à beira de uma reprecificação monumental. 1. O Contexto Macro: Desvalorização Fiduciária e Confiança Perdida É imperativo reconhecer: a atual valorização estratosférica do ouro não é um reflexo do crescimento robusto dos EUA, nem meramente da impressão de dinheiro. O FMI pode se recusar a admitir, mas o estatismo descontrolado – as políticas fiscais e monetárias expansionistas e irresponsáveis – corroeu fundamentalmente a confiança nas moedas fiduciárias dos países desenvolvidos. O ouro está respondendo a uma crise de confiança sistêmica. Bancos Centrais: O "dinheiro inteligente" dos bancos centrais já internalizou essa crise. A alocação de ouro em suas reservas globais triplicou de 10% para 22% desde 2000, o maior patamar em quase três décadas. E se eles retornarem aos níveis de 70% de 1980, o ouro atingirá US$ 6.042 — isso não é especulação, é matemática básica. Oferta vs. Preço: O argumento simplista de que o ouro subirá apenas pela impressão de dinheiro é insuficiente. A recente valorização do ouro excedeu significativamente o crescimento da oferta monetária no último ano. Esta divergência é um sinal de que a demanda está sendo impulsionada por algo muito mais fundamental. 2. As Implicações para o Bitcoin: Uma Rivalidade Direta A ascensão imparável do ouro, especialmente em um cenário de confiança abalada, coloca o Bitcoin em uma posição delicada. Enquanto o ouro se torna "inacessível" para muitos e a prata "inatingível", os que buscaram o Bitcoin como "ouro digital" podem começar a reavaliar suas escolhas. Queda Lateralizada para Bitcoin: Com o ouro reafirmando seu status de refúgio definitivo, o capital que antes migrava para o Bitcoin em busca de proteção pode agora encontrar um ativo mais estabelecido e reconhecido. Isso pode, e deve, desencadear uma queda lateralizada para o Bitcoin no curto prazo, um ajuste doloroso de expectativas. 3. Previsões para 2026: Uma Nova Ordem Financeira As projeções para 2026 não são apenas previsões; são o mapeamento de uma mudança tectônica no cenário financeiro global: Ouro (XAU/USD): US$ 7.000 ou próximo Prata (XAG/USD): $ 100 Bitcoin (BTC/USD): $72.500 (um ajuste significativo da euforia prévia) Dow Jones: 34.000 (uma visão conservadora que reflete a pressão sobre ações) Nasdaq: 15.000 (igualmente conservador, mostrando vulnerabilidade de ativos de crescimento) Isto não é uma opinião, é um fato. Estamos prestes a assistir a uma repetição do cenário de 2011 para ouro e prata, com um impulso ainda maior devido às condições macroeconômicas atuais. 4. Análise Técnica XAU/USD: Preparando-se para a Próxima Fase (20 a 26 de Outubro de 2025) Apesar da força estrutural do ouro, é fundamental reconhecer os ciclos de mercado. O fechamento semanal em $4.249,98 (queda de 1,76%) em 19 de outubro sugere uma vulnerabilidade de curto prazo devido ao "cansaço" da forte alta e aos extremos de momentum. Níveis Chave para a Semana: Ponto de Pivô Crítico: $4.215,60 Resistências Chave (Alvos de Curto Prazo e Pressão Vendedora): R1: $ 4.236 - $ 4.222 R2: $ 4.257,43 R3: $ 4.272,92 R4: $4.285-$4.293 (Zona de forte resistência, potencial para ajustes) Alvos Mais Altos: $4.303-$4.314 e $4.315-$4.326. Um fechamento semanal acima de $4.308 validaria a continuidade da alta. Suportes Chave (Oportunidades de Compra Estratégica): S1: $ 4.212,33 S2: $ 4.199,75 S3: $ 4.182,64 Suportes Críticos para a Tendência: $4.122 - $4.054 (linha mediana). Manter-se acima desta zona é vital para a retomada da alta. Suporte Mais Profundo: $3.953. Uma queda abaixo de $4.000 pode sinalizar uma retração mais profunda, mas ainda dentro de uma macro-tendência de alta. Previsão para a Próxima Semana: A perspectiva imediata aponta para vulnerabilidade e uma potencial correção menor. Se as perdas forem contidas acima da importante zona de $4.120–$4.055, o par pode consolidar e, após um respiro necessário, retomar sua alta, mirando em $4.307 e potencialmente buscando $4-45x–$4.6xx em um movimento estendido. Riscos Chave a Monitorar: Dados de inflação dos EUA (CPI, PPI). Desenvolvimentos nas tensões comerciais EUA-China. Impactos do "shutdown" fiscal doméstico nos EUA. Esses fatores podem influenciar as expectativas do Federal Reserve e provocar volatilidade intensa. Conclusão de Igor Pereira: A Era do Ouro Incontestável Estamos entrando em uma era onde o ouro não é apenas um hedge; ele é o epicentro de uma reavaliação global de valor. Enquanto a indústria cripto pode "atacar" o ouro em um desespero para manter sua narrativa, os fatos econômicos e o movimento inegável do capital institucional apontam para uma verdade: o ouro está se estabelecendo como o porto seguro primário em um mundo em transformação. Preparem-se. A próxima década será definida pelo retorno do Rei dos Metais. A análise que você acabou de ler não é especulação; é a interpretação de dados e fatos que estão remodelando o mercado financeiro global. Enquanto a maioria observa, os profissionais operam. No ExpertFX Club, esta é apenas a superfície. Lá dentro, você terá acesso diário à inteligência de mercado que realmente importa: fluxo de ordens institucional em tempo real, estratégias acionáveis para Ouro (XAU/USD), Prata (XAG/USD) e Bitcoin (BTC/USD), e a clareza para navegar e lucrar com a volatilidade. Não se contente com informações superficiais. Tome decisões com a precisão de um insider. Pronto para operar no padrão institucional? acesse e conheça no site https://expertfx.club/

Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $107,500 and $108,000. BTC could continue to move up if it clears the $109,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $105,000 resistance level. The price is trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $107,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $109,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery Bitcoin price failed to surpass the $110,000 resistance level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below the $108,000 and $106,500 support levels to enter a bearish zone. The price even dipped below $105,000. A low was formed at $103,583 and the price is correcting some losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $115,975 swing high to the $103,583 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $107,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $109,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $110,000 level. The next resistance could be $111,250 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $115,975 swing high to the $103,583 low. A close above the $111,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $112,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $113,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $115,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $110,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $108,000 level. The first major support is near the $107,500 level. The next support is now near the $106,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $105,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $108,000, followed by $106,500. Major Resistance Levels – $109,500 and $111,250.

EUR/USD On Friday, the market experienced profit-taking. The euro declined by 35 pips, and trading volume was high. However, with the start of a new week, speculators may once again turn to risk amid rising stock indices and government bond yields. On the daily chart, the price briefly dipped below the MACD indicator line, but today's session opened above it. The Marlin oscillator is rising and preparing to enter the territory of an upward trend. Once it does, euro growth may accelerate. The target at 1.1779, based on the highs of October 1 and September 9, is open. On the four-hour chart, during the downward correction, Marlin did not move into negative territory, and the price declined only moderately without reaching any indicator lines. It is likely that only the September low and other local extremes around the 1.1650 level were tested. We expect the price to reverse from the current level and resume growth toward the target of 1.1779. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Friday's trading range for the pound was about 80 pips, with the day closing down by eight pips. The lower shadow of the candlestick touched the MACD line. This is a sign that the repositioning of short-term traders has been completed, and the price is ready to continue rising toward the target level of 1.3525. The balance line (red moving average) is approaching this level, and the price may reach the target at the point where it intersects with the indicator line. In that case, a new correction may occur. The Marlin oscillator is still in negative territory but visually appears to be preparing to enter the growth zone. On the four-hour chart, the extremes of Friday's session are forming a range for potential consolidation. The nearly horizontal movement of the Marlin oscillator currently signals a sideways trend. Therefore, a breakout above Friday's high at 1.3470 will be a signal for growth. A downward breakout, as an alternative scenario, appears unlikely at the moment due to the presence of numerous strong support levels on both the H4 and daily timeframes. However, if the price manages to consolidate below 1.3350 (MACD line), a target of 1.3253 will open up. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/GBP Despite the pair's desperate attempt on Friday to break above the MACD line, the day closed with a black candlestick, confirming the consolidation that occurred the day before. Additionally, the oscillator line of the Marlin indicator on the daily timeframe has returned to the territory of a downtrend. There are all the initial signs of a further price decline toward the lower boundary of the price channel, in the area of the 0.8592 mark. The duration of such a move could equal half the distance between Fibonacci time lines No. 9 and No. 10, which, accounting for the weekend, points to the beginning of November. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the balance and MACD indicator lines. However, here the price is coiling around the MACD line like on an axis, which maintains a possibility of the price returning above the line. But with each passing day, this probability decreases, as the Marlin oscillator is falling within its own channel, and the MACD line itself is descending. A move below the signal level of 0.8663 will confirm the main bearish scenario. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The GBP/USD pair experienced a moderate decline on Friday by the end of the day, though it was significantly weaker than the drop observed in EUR/USD. It's important to note that no macroeconomic reports were released in either the U.K. or the U.S. during the final trading day of the week. Market movement was primarily driven by politics, and there is no shortage of that at the moment. Donald Trump remains committed to ending the war in Ukraine, recently calling it "the ninth war he will resolve." While some may struggle to count the prior eight, this theme fits within Trump's recurring narrative that, had he been in office, events such as the Russia–Ukraine war wouldn't have even begun. However, market participants are currently less focused on Ukraine and far more concerned with Trump's global trade war and the increasingly dovish outlook for Federal Reserve policy. The trade war was discussed in detail in the EUR/USD analysis. Let's now revisit the situation at the Fed, which is becoming increasingly difficult. Despite the Fed's outwardly dovish rhetoric, some segments of the market continue to push alternative narratives, even questioning the Fed's true intentions. At the beginning of this year, the Fed hinted at a maximum of two rate cuts in 2025—something supported by officials' statements and dot plot projections. Now, partly due to Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies, labor market conditions are showing strain. As a result, the Fed has been forced to adopt a much more dovish tone than initially expected. One rate cut has already been implemented, and two additional reductions are likely before the year ends. We believe that the Fed has turned more dovish overall, not less, despite what select analysts may claim. Moreover, it is incorrect to view the Fed's path in isolation. The ECB has completed its easing cycle, and the Bank of England is likely to pause indefinitely as inflation remains nearly double the 2% target. This leaves the Fed as the only major central bank expected to ease policy further—a far more significant factor than speculation over the "tone" of its trajectory. By virtually any measure, the dollar remains under pressure. Of course, no one can predict the future with certainty. Market makers operate on their own timelines and may at times act contrary to logic or headline data. Therefore, we don't claim GBP/USD will rise endlessly in the coming years—but current conditions signal that further pound strength is far more likely than not. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 78 pips, classified as "average" for this asset. On Monday, October 20, we expect the pair to trade within the range of 1.3346 to 1.3502. The long-term linear regression channel points upward, confirming a bullish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone three times recently, strengthening the odds of a renewed upward move. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3428 S2 – 1.3367 S3 – 1.3306 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3489 R2 – 1.3550 R3 – 1.3611 Trading Recommendations:GBP/USD is attempting to resume its 2025 bullish trend, and the pair's long-term outlook remains intact. Trump's policies will continue to weigh on the dollar, so we are not anticipating an extended recovery for the U.S. currency. As a result, long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain preferable as long as the price holds above the moving average. If the price falls below the moving average, technical setups would support short positions targeting 1.3306 and 1.3245. The dollar may continue to post minor corrections, but a sustained bullish reversal will require resolution of the trade war or another broadly positive shift in global risk sentiment and economic fundamentals. Explanation of Chart Elements:Linear regression channels help identify the current trend direction. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.The moving average line (20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the preferable direction for trading.Murray levels represent projected support/resistance zones for trend continuation or correction.Volatility levels (red lines) suggest the expected price range for the next 24 hours based on current volatility measures.CCI indicator: values below –250 (oversold) or above +250 (overbought) signal a potential reversal or trend shift.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a relatively unexpected decline toward the moving average on Friday. From a technical standpoint, there was nothing extraordinary about this move—it was a routine correction. If sellers manage to hold the price below the moving average, the trend may shift back to bearish, though even that would likely have no long-term implications. This is all about the daily timeframe. The "Trump Trend" began earlier this year, placing us firmly in a medium-term outlook. It's on higher timeframes like the 24-hour chart that the picture becomes clear: we are in a strong uptrend that has, over time, transitioned into a broad sideways range—or flat market. This flat phase represents an accumulation or distribution period for large players. In simpler terms, the market has been preparing for a new trend for several months already, and most of the short-term movements we're seeing are mere market noise within that broader consolidation. It's important to remember that during flat phases, significant reasons aren't necessarily required for the price to move in either direction. Our view is that the market is currently accumulating negative factors related to the U.S. dollar, preparing to price them in all at once. At present, there is no real support for the dollar stemming from fundamental news. We don't believe the dollar's recent bullish episodes are due to the Federal Reserve's "not-too-dovish" stance or Trump's ever-changing rhetoric. On Friday, the U.S. dollar gained modestly, and many analysts quickly pointed to "easing trade tensions" with China. But let's not forget: Trump has, in recent months, imposed a new round of tariffs—affecting goods like trucks, medical supplies, and furniture. Tariffs on Indian imports have increased to 50%, and Chinese products now face 100% tariffs. Is this what analysts call "de-escalation" or "reduced trade tension"? Even if the U.S. and China reach another temporary agreement in November, that won't spell the end of the trade war. Next month, Trump could again declare "unfair treatment" and impose new tariffs—this cycle could continue indefinitely. Markets will continue reacting to this formidable factor. However, it's worth noting that the market moves according to defined algorithms and patterns. To initiate a new long-term trend, time is needed for institutional players to build the necessary volume. Retail traders with small positions can buy or sell quickly, but large banks and institutions can't move billions in and out of positions overnight. Therefore, we continue to expect further weakening of the U.S. dollar. The current correction may last a few more weeks or months, but the overall outcome still looks evident. The average volatility for EUR/USD over the past five trading days stands at 65 pips as of October 20, considered "average." For Monday, we expect movement within the 1.1588 to 1.1719 range. The long-term linear regression channel remains upward-sloping, indicating that the broader trend remains intact. The CCI indicator recently entered oversold territory, which could trigger a new upward wave. Nearest Support Levels:S1: 1.1658S2: 1.1597S3: 1.1536Nearest Resistance Levels:R1: 1.1719R2: 1.1780R3: 1.1841Trading Recommendations:EUR/USD is attempting to establish a new uptrend on the 4-hour chart, while the longer timeframes continue to show a bullish market. U.S. dollar dynamics remain driven mainly by Donald Trump's policies and anti-global rhetoric. Although the dollar has shown short-term strength recently, these episodes are rooted in fragile reasoning. The flat movement on the daily chart fully supports this view. If the price stays below the moving average, short-term short positions can be considered with a target near 1.1536, based purely on technical conditions. If the price remains above the moving average, long positions remain valid toward 1.1841 and possibly 1.1902 in continuation of the broader trend. Explanation of Chart Elements:Linear regression channels help identify the current trend direction. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.The moving average line (20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the preferable direction for trading.Murray levels represent projected support/resistance zones for trend continuation or correction.Volatility levels (red lines) suggest the expected price range for the next 24 hours based on current volatility measures.CCI indicator: values below –250 (oversold) or above +250 (overbought) signal a potential reversal or trend shift.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a minor pullback, but by the end of the day, it had recovered most of its losses. While the euro appears on the verge of canceling a barely-started bullish reversal, the pound remains confidently within its emerging upward trend. Late on Friday, the price bounced off the Senkou Span B line—a critical signal that the market is ready to continue buying. There were no notable macroeconomic events on Friday. Therefore, we continue to expect more upward movement from the British pound. None of the global fundamentals support the U.S. dollar at this point. The situation for the greenback continues to deteriorate each week: Trump keeps introducing and raising tariffs, the Federal Reserve prepares for two or three rounds of monetary easing, the Bank of England has paused its policy changes indefinitely, and the U.S. government shutdown is ongoing and may break historical records in duration. On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday generated a fair number of signals—most of which turned out to be false. Traders had a chance to work with the first two, both near the 1.3420 level. The price initially bounced off this area and then broke through it. However, in both cases, the price failed to follow through as expected. Later in the day, a clean bounce from the Senkou Span B line offered a recovery opportunity, which helped offset early trade losses. COT Report COT (Commitment of Traders) reports for the British pound continue to show fluctuations in trader sentiment. The red and blue lines representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders have been crossing frequently, usually hovering around the zero line. Currently, they're nearly equal, indicating a roughly balanced number of long and short positions. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken under Donald Trump's policies, so market makers' demand for the pound becomes secondary. The trade war will likely persist in one form or another, and the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates into 2025. In this environment, dollar demand will remain soft. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 new BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts, increasing the net long position by 4,600 contracts. The pound has posted substantial gains throughout 2025, but let's be clear: this is mainly due to Trump's influence on the markets. Once that influence fades—or is counterbalanced—the dollar might rebound. But nobody can say precisely when that will happen. Regardless of fluctuations in net positions, dollar positioning continues to fall—typically at a quicker pace than for sterling. GBP/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair has finally ended its downtrend and begun forming a new bullish trend. There are still no fundamental justifications for dollar strength, so we expect the pair to move higher toward the 2025 highs under almost any scenario. The only caveat would be if consolidation on the daily timeframe continues over the next few months. But already now, it's clear: the trade war is intensifying, sentiment is deteriorating, and the Fed is inclined toward policy easing. This all creates a toxic mix for the U.S. dollar. For October 20, important technical levels include: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The key Ichimoku levels are as follows: Senkou Span B at 1.3393 and Kijun-sen at 1.3358. Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven after 20 pips in a favorable direction. Note that Ichimoku lines can shift during the day, so traders should update levels as needed throughout the session. On Monday, there are no notable events outside the U.K. However, the U.S. will release data on Durable Goods Orders. Since much of U.S. macro data is delayed due to the shutdown, this report may generate above-average market response. Trading Recommendations: Today, traders can focus on levels around 1.3420 or the Senkou Span B line. There's sufficient support below, and with few scheduled events, technicals may dominate price action. The pound has begun a recovery, and in the short term, we expect this bullish momentum to extend toward the 1.3533–1.3548 area. Chart Key:Thick red lines: resistance/support levels where price tends to shift direction; not necessarily sources of trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B: Ichimoku lines transferred from the H4 chart to H1, used as strong dynamic support/resistance.Thin red lines: previous swing highs/lows (extremes) that may generate trade signals.Yellow lines: trendlines, channels, and technical patterns used in broader market structure.COT Indicator 1: reflects net position size for each trader group as tracked in the Commitments of Traders report.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Friday, EUR/USD posted a relatively strong downward movement—something that would not be expected from a single macroeconomic report like euro area inflation data. In the previous analysis, we stated that the market was unlikely to react significantly to this release, as the second estimate of inflation rarely moves markets. However, this time the data surprised: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September came in at 2.4% year-over-year, instead of the 2.3% previously reported. What does this mean? Inflation is accelerating, and the European Central Bank clearly won't lower interest rates any time soon. If inflation keeps climbing, the central bank may even consider raising rates once or twice next year. This theoretically improves the euro's outlook by strengthening the ECB's hawkish stance. However, the euro still declined on Friday, despite the data. Traders appeared to ignore the report and instead focused on the shift in tone from Donald Trump. The U.S. dollar found support after Trump backed away from imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports "for now." Essentially, Trump admitted to using tariff threats as a negotiation tool to extract concessions from China. This move helped the dollar strengthen modestly. On the 5-minute chart, EUR/USD only reached key levels late on Friday. No actual trading signals were generated throughout most of the session. A bounce during the U.S. session from the 1.1657–1.1666 area could have been used for opening long positions, but doing so at the end of the trading day would have been risky. COT Report The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report is dated September 23. No further reports have been released due to the U.S. government shutdown. The chart still shows that non-commercial traders have maintained a bullish net position for a long time. Bears briefly gained dominance in late 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump returned to office, the dollar has been consistently weakening. While the current trajectory doesn't guarantee further losses for the dollar, global developments continue to point in that direction. There are still not many reasons to favor euro strength fundamentally, but there are several solid arguments for continued dollar weakness. The global downtrend for the dollar remains intact. Whether the dollar recovers may depend on whether Trump eventually ends his trade wars—but recent events suggest that the conflict will continue in one form or another. The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is yet another significant bearish factor for the greenback. The positions of the red and blue lines on the COT indicator still suggest a bullish bias. During the last reporting week, non-commercial long positions declined by 800,000, while short positions rose by 2,600. The net position fell by 3,400 contracts. However, these figures are now outdated and largely irrelevant. EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the 1-hour timeframe, EUR/USD may have ended its bearish trend two weeks ago. The trendline was broken, the Kijun-sen line was broken, the 1.1604–1.1615 and 1.1657–1.1666 areas were also breached, and even the Senkou Span B line was taken out. All of this supports expectations for further upward movement. We believe it's high time for the euro to begin climbing again, although market participants remain hesitant—for now. For October 20, the following levels are in play: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988. Also watch the Senkou Span B line (1.1661) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1635). Note that Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the trading day, and should be updated when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in your favor—to protect against potential reversals. On Monday, Germany will release the Ifo Business Climate Index (a secondary report), while the U.S. will publish the more significant Durable Goods Orders report. In the absence of higher-impact events, the U.S. release may move the market. Trading Recommendations: On Monday, traders can continue trading from the 1.1651–1.1666 zone. To open long positions toward the target at 1.1750–1.1760, look for a bounce from this area from above. We do not recommend opening short positions at this time, as the overall trend has shifted upward and the price faces multiple layers of support below current levels. Chart Key: Thick red lines: resistance/support levels where price tends to shift direction; not necessarily sources of trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B: Ichimoku lines transferred from the H4 chart to H1, used as strong dynamic support/resistance.Thin red lines: previous swing highs/lows (extremes) that may generate trade signals.Yellow lines: trendlines, channels, and technical patterns used in broader market structure.COT Indicator 1: reflects net position size for each trader group as tracked in the Commitments of Traders report.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin is trading around $107,000 after its recent flash crash, maintaining stability to prevent further decline but is yet to return to trading above $110,000. Notably, popular crypto analyst Titan of Crypto shared a detailed Gaussian Channel analysis on X that points to Bitcoin’s macro bull structure remaining intact despite short-term volatility. His post, which was accompanied by a Bitcoin price chart, shows how Bitcoin’s position relative to the Gaussian Channel offers a clear view of the ongoing cycle. Bull Market Intact Above Gaussian Channel Titan of Crypto noted that Bitcoin’s placement above the Gaussian Channel represents strength in the long-term trend. As shown in the weekly candlestick price chart below, the green channel corresponds to bullish phases, while red regions represent bearish downturns, a prime example being the 2022 bear market. At the time of writing, the upper band is positioned around $101,300 and trending upward. Therefore, Bitcoin’s price action around $107,000 means that it is yet to break into the Gaussian channel and its overall market structure is still solid. From this, it can be inferred that Bitcoin’s current pullback from the October 6 all-time high above $126,000 is only a temporary pause within a larger bull market. Bitcoin Gaussian Channel. Source: Titan of Crypto on X However, although the Gaussian Channel reading looks favorable, Titan of Crypto noted that the indicator should not be treated as a trading trigger. “It’s not a buy signal, it’s a macro context indicator,” he stated. Being above the Gaussian Channel doesn’t necessarily equate to buying more. It simply means the bull market structure is still intact. The Gaussian Channel works best when combined with other indicators such as trading volume, moving averages, and on-chain accumulation trends to confirm directional momentum. Coinbase Premium Gap Turns Red Speaking of other indicators, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that the Coinbase Premium Gap, a metric comparing Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase versus other exchanges, has turned red. As shown in the chart below, Coinbase’s Premium Gap went on a sharp decline from positive premium levels above +60 earlier in the week to as low as -40 when the Bitcoin price fell to $101,000. Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium Gap Interestingly, the Coinbase Premium Gap has increased to around -10 at the time of writing, meaning US investors are starting to turn bullish again. This can be seen as a bullish signal, as similar dips in US demand were recorded between March and April before the Bitcoin price eventually rallied more than 60% to reach new all-time highs. However, a red Coinbase Premium Gap alone is not decisive. It should be interpreted alongside other data points, including ETF inflows, trading volume, liquidity, and derivatives funding rates. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $107,120. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView

The price performance of Bitcoin over the past two weeks has been a major source of concern, as the coin’s value continues to drift away (about 15% down now) from its all-time high. As the flagship cryptocurrency slows down, the latest on-chain data suggests that a group of investors is exiting the market en masse. More Short-Term Holders Are Giving Up Their Holdings In an October 18 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Darkfost revealed that a significant number of Bitcoin’s short-term investors have started to close their positions and realize their losses. Darkfost’s analysis was hinged on the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, which tracks the net amount (in USD) of profits or losses that are realized on-chain. This metric measures the net profit or loss on a daily basis, averaged, in this case, over seven days. It provides insight into whether more investors are selling at losses or with their heads still above water.. According to the crypto pundit, the realized losses of BTC investors have surged to an approximate level as high as $750 million per day, one of the highest levels this current cycle has seen. Interestingly, Darkfost explained that the magnitude of these capitulation events stands easily comparable to those seen during the 2024 summer correction. What’s worth noting about this capitulation phase is what may likely follow. According to the analyst, events like this usually precede local bottoms. What this means is that after short-term holders (known as the “weak hands”) have surrendered their holdings to the more-confident long-term holders (the “diamond hands”), the cryptocurrency stands a chance of seeing a price rebound — an expectation in congruence with historical trends. However, on the more cautious side, Darkfost offered a subtle warning that the dreary opposite could also be the case in a situation where the market stands at an early bearish phase. Bitcoin Whales Might Be Accumulating Again Supporting the positive redistribution theory, a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform by Abramchart offers a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin market participants. Referencing the Inflows To Accumulation Addresses (Dynamic Cohort) metric, the analyst highlighted a significant inflow of more than 26,500 BTC into whale accumulation wallets. When large amounts of Bitcoin — such as this magnitude — are moved, it usually signals an underlying institutional or whale accumulation, as coins are typically transferred from exchanges to these wallets for long-term holding. Following historical patterns, it is very likely that this accumulation event will precede a continued bullish expansion of the flagship cryptocurrency. As Abramchart explained, this trend all serves as a hint that smart money is “quietly buying the dip.” As of this writing, Bitcoin holds a valuation of about $106,870, with no significant movement seen over the past 24 hours.

The EUR/USD pair finds itself at a crossroads amid conflicting fundamental signals. For the past two weeks, buyers have repeatedly attempted to settle the price in the 1.17 area, while sellers have defended the 1.15 zone. However, the pair has finished the past two Fridays near the middle of this range—levels like 1.1622 and 1.1653—essentially hovering within a broad channel, reacting only to strong news impulses without committing to a clear directional move. The cause? A contradictory flow of information—a bearish one offsets every bullish factor. For example, last week Jerome Powell pressured the dollar with dovish rhetoric, while Donald Trump supported the greenback by announcing new trade talks with China. Although trade negotiations shouldn't technically offset the Fed's monetary easing process, the market treats them as competing narratives. Traders shift their sentiment easily—from Fed dovishness to Trump's trade optimism. Just yesterday, the dollar was the market's underdog. Now, it's suddenly a favorite again—despite the Fed maintaining its soft stance and ultra-dovish expectations continuing to grow. Is the dollar's recent strength justified? In my opinion, no. If only because Trump has changed his posture on China several times in a single month—oscillating between escalation threats and peacemaking statements. Additionally, real policy actions point toward ongoing trade tensions. Last week's mutual increase in port duties by both China and the U.S. remains in effect. On October 14, China imposed sanctions on several U.S. shipbuilding companies, including five subsidiaries of Hanwha Shipping. Another sign of heightened confrontation: China broke the fragile trade truce by announcing new restrictions on the export of rare-earth minerals. If these rules take effect on December 1, companies wishing to export minerals from China will not only need government approval but also must disclose intended usage. These materials play a key role in manufacturing advanced tech, including military equipment like U.S. fighter jets. Beijing has made it clear that licenses will only be granted if the minerals are destined for civilian purposes. With its near-monopoly on the supply of rare-earth elements, China has raised the stakes ahead of the upcoming talks. Given this strong bargaining chip, it's unlikely Beijing would accept tariff rollbacks alone as a compromise. Therefore, Trump is unlikely to conduct these negotiations easily. In other words, the prospect of de-escalation between China and the U.S. depends not on Washington's gestures, but on Beijing's—and so far, China has not taken any visible steps in that direction, although it publicly maintains that its doors are open to dialogue. All of this suggests that Trump will likely shift from diplomacy to aggression again soon, putting new pressure on the dollar, primarily since other fundamental factors also work against it. As mentioned earlier, dovish market expectations continue to intensify. By the end of last week, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in October rose to 100%. The odds of another cut in December increased to 94%. Traders now even assign a 6% chance of a 50-point rate cut in December and a 50/50 chance of one more rate cut in January. This spike in dovish sentiment followed recent comments by Fed officials. Powell emphasized signs of labor market cooling and essentially previewed an upcoming rate cut. His colleagues, Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, also voiced support for further monetary easing—Miran advocating for a 50-basis-point rate cut as early as the October meeting. These dovish expectations could either strengthen or weaken in the coming week, depending on Friday's CPI report. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for September is expected to show an acceleration to 3.1% year-over-year (from 2.9%), while core inflation is forecast to remain steady at 3.1%. If the report meets or exceeds expectations, the odds of a December rate cut may decline—and the dollar could gain broader support. Conversely, if the data falls short, "dovish" expectations will intensify, and the greenback may resume its decline. Over the past two weeks, EUR/USD has been trading within a wide range between 1.1550 and 1.1730 (Bollinger Bands lower boundary and the Kijun-sen line on D1). In my view, the pair is likely to remain in this corridor, reacting impulsively to new market signals. A breakout will require synchronized movement in key fundamental drivers. For example, if Trump returns to aggressive rhetoric against China while U.S. inflation slows, buyers may attempt to push EUR/USD past the 1.1730 target. Alternatively, if China takes conciliatory steps while U.S. inflation comes in hotter than expected, sellers may pull the pair back toward the 1.15 zone. With high uncertainty still in play, the coming week could finally tip the balance and help EUR/USD traders determine the vector of the next major price move. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. economic calendar remains limited due to the ongoing government shutdown. As a result, political developments will take center stage in the coming week. Chief among them is the ongoing budget standoff between Democrats and Republicans—though at the moment, it's clear that there are no real negotiations taking place. Donald Trump's team shows no desire to reach a compromise with the opposition, instead applying pressure by threatening mass layoffs of government employees and shutting down key programs initiated by Democrats. In essence, Trump remains true to form—avoiding compromise and continuing to issue ultimatums. Over the weekend, new mass protests erupted across the United States in opposition to Trump's policies. In several cities, the demonstrations escalated into violent clashes with police. Social tensions are rising sharply within the U.S. Meanwhile, tensions are also escalating between the U.S. and China. Trump has pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese imports if Beijing doesn't scale back its tightening of rare-earth export controls. So far, China has not reversed its course. Trump has since walked back parts of his threat—but officially, the tariff decision still stands. From an economic data standpoint, the coming week offers only a few notable reports. Among them are existing home sales, inflation figures, business activity indexes, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Clearly, the most important of these will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation in the U.S. is expected to climb to 3.1% in September. If confirmed, this could lend noticeable support to the U.S. dollar by reducing the likelihood of a dovish monetary policy path from the Federal Reserve. Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:Based on the current wave analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave structure remains heavily influenced by news flows, particularly related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the new White House administration. The target zone for this trend could extend toward the 1.25 area. At present, the market appears to be forming corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion. This structure is particularly long and complex, but still fits the overall bullish trend shape. Consequently, I continue to view buying opportunities as more favorable. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. The pair remains within a bullish impulse wave, but the internal layout has become more complex. Wave 4 is developing into a three-wave corrective pattern that is significantly longer than wave 2. The most recent downward three-wave correction appears to be complete. If confirmed, the upward movement within the global wave structure is likely to resume. Initial targets remain at 1.3800 and 1.4000. As always, price action should be confirmed by technical signals and key levels, but these wave structures provide a broader framework for medium-term trend direction. Key Principles of This Wave Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and are more likely to shift.If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out.There is never absolute certainty in market direction. Always use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other tools and trading strategies for a comprehensive approach.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The upcoming U.K. economic data will be relatively scarce, but one report in particular could lend significant support to the British pound. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September will be published. As highlighted in recent commentary, inflation in the U.K. has been running nearly double the Bank of England's (BoE) target for some time now—and next week it could officially surpass that benchmark twofold. Annual CPI is expected to rise by another 0.2%, reaching 4.0% year-over-year. Core inflation may increase to 3.7%. This single report could lead the BoE to abandon any remaining plans for a rate cut before year-end. Though some economists still expect one more round of monetary easing due to rising unemployment and a cooling labor market, the case for holding rates—or even taking a more cautious stance—is growing stronger. Inflation in the U.K. has been rising steadily for more than a year. Therefore, there is no seasonal spike or short-term reaction to external shocks such as the trade war. It is a sustained trend. If the BoE continues to ease policy in this environment, inflation could climb to 5–6%, which would be highly problematic. Aside from the CPI report, the week's other notable events include the retail sales report and the release of manufacturing and services PMI figures on Friday. As of now, there are no forecasts available for the PMI numbers. Retail sales are expected to show a month-over-month decline. In my view, only the inflation report deserves close attention at this moment. In the U.S., there will be very few data releases due to the ongoing government shutdown. Throughout 2025, it has primarily been U.S. events and data driving market movement. Now, key reports are delayed by the shutdown, which shifts the market's focus to political and geopolitical developments. The U.S. dollar is currently contending with a wide range of challenges. As soon as the market fully prices in these risks, demand for the dollar is likely to weaken again. Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:Based on the current wave analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave structure remains heavily influenced by news flows, particularly related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the new White House administration. The target zone for this trend could extend toward the 1.25 area. At present, the market appears to be forming corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion. This structure is particularly long and complex, but still fits the overall bullish trend shape. Consequently, I continue to view buying opportunities as more favorable. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. The pair remains within a bullish impulse wave, but the internal layout has become more complex. Wave 4 is developing into a three-wave corrective pattern that is significantly longer than wave 2. The most recent downward three-wave correction appears to be complete. If confirmed, the upward movement within the global wave structure is likely to resume. Initial targets remain at 1.3800 and 1.4000. As always, price action should be confirmed by technical signals and key levels, but these wave structures provide a broader framework for medium-term trend direction. Key Principles of This Wave Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and are more likely to shift.If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out.There is never absolute certainty in market direction. Always use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other tools and trading strategies for a comprehensive approach.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The upcoming week is unlikely to be notable or significant for the euro. Throughout 2025, the euro has simply been drifting with the tide. The dominant driver of the market remains the U.S. dollar—it's the dollar that rises or falls, while other currencies largely move in response. At present, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. Wave structure analysis continues to show nothing more than corrective three-wave patterns that provide little clarity, as any corrective structure can extend or evolve at any moment. Currently, a downward three-wave pattern has formed, which could indicate the beginning of an upward mirror structure. However, confidence in such a scenario is low. The key issue is that the market has more than enough reasons to continue selling off the U.S. dollar—but it hasn't been doing so for several weeks. Consequently, if the news flow isn't materially influencing investor sentiment, euro weakness may persist. In the eurozone next week, the most notable events will be two speeches from Christine Lagarde and the release of the October purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the services and manufacturing sectors. It's unlikely that Lagarde will present any new, meaningful developments, though Friday's slightly hotter-than-expected inflation reading might prompt her to comment. But what would that mean for the euro? In essence, not much. The European Central Bank has already ended its rate-cutting cycle, and higher inflation makes further easing even less likely. On the other hand, there's still no reason to consider tightening—too little time has passed, and the rise in inflation remains modest. Thus, the PMIs released on Friday will likely be the most relevant reports of the week, but no dramatic surprises are expected. As a result, no major market moves are anticipated either. Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:Based on the current wave analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave structure remains heavily influenced by news flows, particularly related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the new White House administration. The target zone for this trend could extend toward the 1.25 area. At present, the market appears to be forming corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion. This structure is particularly long and complex, but still fits the overall bullish trend shape. Consequently, I continue to view buying opportunities as more favorable. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. The pair remains within a bullish impulse wave, but the internal layout has become more complex. Wave 4 is developing into a three-wave corrective pattern that is significantly longer than wave 2. The most recent downward three-wave correction appears to be complete. If confirmed, the upward movement within the global wave structure is likely to resume. Initial targets remain at 1.3800 and 1.4000. As always, price action should be confirmed by technical signals and key levels, but these wave structures provide a broader framework for medium-term trend direction. Key Principles of This Wave Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and are more likely to shift.If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out.There is never absolute certainty in market direction. Always use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other tools and trading strategies for a comprehensive approach.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Saturday, October 18, a new wave of protests swept across the United States. Millions of Americans took to the streets in cities across the country under the slogan "No kings," demonstrating against the policies of President Donald Trump. In the ninth month of what Trump calls "the greatest presidency in history"—the one that has supposedly "ended nine wars" and "restored the U.S. economy"—many Americans believe democracy has been destroyed, and that Trump is laying the foundations of a new autocratic regime. Protesters voiced opposition to the political persecution of Trump's opponents, as well as the militarization of immigration enforcement, an effort that increasingly involves federal troops and the National Guard. In response to the protests—which began as peaceful demonstrations—Trump has deployed even more troops to American cities. But peace was short-lived. As of this morning, the protests have escalated into mass unrest and violent street clashes. Police are firing at demonstrators (hopefully with rubber bullets), and tear gas has been deployed. This marks the third major wave of demonstrations since Trump returned to office. Americans are fiercely criticizing his actions, arguing that his governance undermines the integrity of both Congress and the judiciary. Despite the national turmoil, Trump spent the night attending a charity gala at one of his private clubs, where entry cost $1 million per ticket. This is not the first instance in which Trump has monetized personal face time with attendees, selling seats at his table for hundreds of thousands of dollars. It's also worth noting the scale of public opposition. The first major anti-Trump protest, which was also aimed at Elon Musk—who had become entangled in Trump's administration—occurred at 1,300 locations. The second demonstration took place at 2,100 sites. Yesterday's protests expanded to 2,700 different venues across the country. All this leads to one clear conclusion: America is rising up against Trump, his authoritarian methods, and his imperial ambitions. Americans want to live in a country where democracy isn't an empty word and where the president doesn't break the law with impunity, week after week. The people's protests are understandable—they are demanding the restoration of lawful, democratic governance. If blame is to be placed, it rests with the voters' own decision one year ago. Trump didn't take office by force. Many were dissatisfied with the perceived indecisiveness of Joe Biden. So now, they have something new—a version of "fun" that the nation is unlikely to forget for decades to come. Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:Based on the current wave analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave structure remains heavily influenced by news flows, particularly related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the new White House administration. The target zone for this trend could extend toward the 1.25 area. At present, the market appears to be forming corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion. This structure is particularly long and complex, but still fits the overall bullish trend shape. Consequently, I continue to view buying opportunities as more favorable. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. The pair remains within a bullish impulse wave, but the internal layout has become more complex. Wave 4 is developing into a three-wave corrective pattern that is significantly longer than wave 2. The most recent downward three-wave correction appears to be complete. If confirmed, the upward movement within the global wave structure is likely to resume. Initial targets remain at 1.3800 and 1.4000. As always, price action should be confirmed by technical signals and key levels, but these wave structures provide a broader framework for medium-term trend direction. Key Principles of This Wave Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and are more likely to shift.If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out.There is never absolute certainty in market direction. Always use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other tools and trading strategies for a comprehensive approach.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

At times, it feels as though Donald Trump is acting like a foreign agent with one objective—to accelerate the collapse of the United States from within. Of course, such a claim sounds absurd, given that Trump is an American citizen and owns numerous businesses across the country. But then one is left to conclude only one thing: Trump truly sees himself as the King of the United States and believes he can rule the nation unilaterally—rendering irrelevant the democratic norms that once defined American governance. American democracy, many now argue, died with Trump's second term. The Democratic Party suffered a resounding loss in the last election and no longer controls either chamber of Congress. As a result, it fails in its fundamental role as the opposition and now takes part in virtually none of the major decisions being made in Washington. One of the few instances where Democrats were able to have a say was during negotiations over the federal budget for the next fiscal year—a process that has triggered a new government shutdown. It's worth recalling that passing most laws requires a simple majority in Congress—half of the members plus one vote. Since the Republican Party holds the majority in both chambers, it has been able to pass most legislation unopposed. However, in the case of budgetary laws, a 60% vote is required in the Senate—something Trump and the Republicans currently do not have. As a result, the U.S. government and its agencies have now entered their third consecutive week of paralysis. Trump, meanwhile, continues playing golf unbothered. And while Republicans can legislate without Democrats, Trump also takes matters into his own hands—even enacting decisions that contradict the U.S. Constitution. Example: The president does not have the authority to impose global tariffs. Not even under the Emergency Powers Act of 1974. Two U.S. courts have ruled as such—yet the tariffs still stand, as the courts didn't strike them down. Whether this new approach to trade policy is lawful will now be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court in early November, where six out of the nine justices were appointed by Republican presidents. If the court rules in favor of the tariffs, it will mark yet another blow to American democracy. And the trade war is just one piece of the puzzle. Trump has tried to fire Federal Reserve officials—Jerome Powell among them—even though he has no authority to do so. He's attempted to resolve the immigration crisis and silence protests against his administration by ordering active-duty military troops into U.S. cities. Protests, by the way, began back in the summer on Trump's birthday—June 14—and have only grown in size and momentum ever since. Wave Structure Outlook for EUR/USDBased on the current wave structure analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish wave segment. The wave composition remains entirely dependent on the news cycle—specifically, decisions from Trump and developments in U.S. foreign and domestic policy. The target for this wave segment could stretch as far as the 1.2500 area. At the moment, what we see is the construction of corrective wave 4. It appears to be nearing completion, although it is forming as an unusually complex and extended pattern. Therefore, I believe that holding bullish positions is more advantageous. By year-end, I expect the euro to move toward the 1.2245 level, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Structure Outlook for GBP/USDThe wave structure of GBP/USD has evolved. We are still dealing with a bullish, impulsive segment of the overall trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 is forming as a three-wave correction and appears much more extended than wave 2. The latest corrective three-wave pullback is presumably complete. If this assumption is correct, the upward movement within the broader wave structure is likely to resume. The initial targets would be in the 1.3800 to 1.4000 region. Key Principles of This Wave Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and are more likely to shift.If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out.There is never absolute certainty in market direction. Always use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other tools and trading strategies for a comprehensive approach.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP has shown some signs of recovery over the past 48 hours, climbing about 5.3 % from its recent low, according to on-chain analytics platform Santiment. The rebound comes as investor confidence appears to be returning, as it coincides with a steady rise in mid to large-sized XRP holders. Particularly, on-chain data shows that the XRP ecosystem now has more than 317,500 wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP tokens for the first time in its history. Mid To Large XRP Holders Reach Record 317,500 Wallets Despite XRP’s recent price woes alongside the rest of the crypto market, on-chain data shows that XRP’s holder base is increasing among crypto investors. Notably, Santiment’s latest data shows that the number of XRP wallets holding at least 10,000 tokens has reached an all-time high of approximately 317,500. Santiment’s data chart, as shown below, indicates that XRP’s network has added approximately 1.8% more wallets holding 10,000 or more tokens in just the last thirty days. Interestingly, Santiment’s data further shows that the upward slope of this metric has been consistent throughout 2025. The increase in mid-sized and large wallet count shows that many XRP investors are not concerned about the recent price dips. Instead, many of them are taking advantage of lower prices to strengthen their holdings. As such, a growing segment of investors are buying XRP for long-term gains rather than short-term price action. XRP, which is currently hovering around the $2.35 range, may benefit from this growing base of committed holders in the long term. Its price trajectory now depends on its ability to sustain momentum above $2.3. If the bullish on-chain sentiment translates into consistent buy pressure, XRP could extend its rebound and target at least $2.8 before the end of the week. However, if momentum stalls, the price may enter another downward phase before an upward move. Nonetheless, the record growth in wallets holding over 10,000 XRP provides a strong long-term foundation that may support the cryptocurrency’s value in the coming weeks. Number of 10K+ XRP Wallets. Source: Santiment Ripple’s Acquisition Of GTreasury Adds Institutional Momentum Ripple Labs, the company behind XRP, recently announced the acquisition of GTreasury for $1 billion, making this its third-biggest deal in 2025. The deal will bring GTreasury’s treasury-management software, used by global corporations to manage liquidity, cash forecasting, payments and risk, into Ripple’s infrastructure suite. GTreasury serves over 1,000 customers across about 160 countries and has more than 40 years’ experience in corporate treasury operations. The move gives Ripple immediate access to the multi-trillion-dollar corporate treasury market and large enterprise clients previously outside its direct reach. There are also reports that Ripple is planning to raise $1 billion to build an XRP treasury. At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $2.35. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The price of Ethereum appears to be recovering nicely over the weekend after a period of investor uncertainty. The “king of altcoins”, following what looked like an aggressive return above the $4,200 level earlier this week, is now lagging under the psychological $4,000 mark. While the Ethereum price has been building some positive momentum over the past day, the shadows of the October 10 downturn still seem to be weighing on investor sentiment. A market phenomenon known as the “Kimchi Premium” suggests a few tedious weeks ahead for the second-largest cryptocurrency. What Happened Last Time Kimchi Premium Saw A Similar Surge In a recent post on the social media platform X, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed that the Kimchi Premium has been on the rise over the past weeks. This observation is based on the movement of the on-chain indicator Korea Premium Index, which measures the price difference between South Korean exchanges and other global exchanges. This metric, or the “Kimchi Premium,” shows how much extra Korean traders are willing to pay for a particular cryptocurrency (Ethereum, in this case). When the index is positive, it means that Korean retailers are willing to pay a premium for the crypto assets. Meanwhile, a negative Korean Premium Index signals that the retailers are only willing to buy the cryptocurrency at a discount. According to CryptoOnchain, the Korea Premium Index for Ethereum recently saw a notable surge to around 8.2%, its second-highest level this year. The market analyst noted that this level of Kimchi Premium is a troubling sign, as it historically suggests extreme retail FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and a potential price top. Typically, whales tend to take advantage of the price gap by selling on Korean exchanges when the Korea Premium Index is on the rise. Due to increased selling pressure, the Ethereum price now faces a greater risk of correction. For instance, the last time ETH saw a Kimchi Premium this high was in January, coinciding with the price fall to around $1,500. With this in mind, investors might want to tread with caution, as the odds of a sustained downward trend are significantly higher. Ethereum Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of ETH stands at around $3,875, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. In what was expected to be a bullish period for the cryptocurrency market, “Uptober” has not particularly lived up to the expectations of investors. After a positive start to the month, the Ethereum price is currently down by almost 10%.

A well-known crypto analyst is urging investors to rethink the old trade of gold for Bitcoin, calling current market signals a rare buying window. According to CryptoQuant author Joao Wedson, a set of bottom signals in the BTC/Gold ratio are flashing, and that could mark a turning point in how the two assets move against each other. Rare Signals Point Toward Bitcoin Wedson’s chart shows two tags — one blue and one green — that line up with a normalized oscillator he says is at a low. According to him, the blue tag marks a bottom in the BTC/Gold ratio while the green tag appears when both indicators reach lows together. When that has happened before, it often came at times of steep Bitcoin drops and big swings in market mood. According to Wedson, today is a “historic opportunity” and that investors should now “trade gold for Bitcoin.” Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO, has echoed a similar view: “We’re exactly there right now,” he said, calling the setup one of the most compelling in recent years. The message from both analysts is clear: look closely at this moment. Bitcoin Seen At A Deep Value Zone Other market watchers find Bitcoin trading two standard deviations below its ideal range. This type of reading has in the past lined up with accumulation phases, not market tops. Based on CoinMarketCap data, BTC was trading near $107,400 at press time and had risen 0.45% in the previous 24 hours. Year-to-date gains stood at 15%, and Bitcoin had gained nearly 55% over the last year. Those figures were cited to show that the currency has already moved a lot this year, but that some measures still point to cheaper-than-usual levels. Institutional Shifts May Be Underway Wedson specifically urged institutional players who have been buying up gold to rethink allocations. The BTC/Gold ratio has long been used as a gauge of confidence between the two stores of value. When it hits a bottom, some market cycles have followed with Bitcoin regaining ground quickly and, in some cases, moving toward fresh highs within months. This is the historical pattern his signal is tied to. Some of the language used by analysts was blunt; the oscillator was described as “basically screaming: time to sell gold and buy Bitcoin,” a phrase that underlines how strong the signal appears to those calling it. Retail Losses Hit Billions While the ratio story points to upside, a separate disclosure shows a different risk for ordinary investors. Reports from 10X Research say retail buyers lost around $17 billion after piling into public Bitcoin treasury firms that traded at premiums. Those companies — including MicroStrategy (now Strategy) and Metaplanet — issued shares and used the cash to buy Bitcoin, but the equity premiums collapsed as Bitcoin’s run slowed. The report added that investors overpaid by about $20 billion in inflated equity premiums, leaving many with losses while insiders and executives benefited earlier in the move. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

NextSource Materials’ (TSX: NEXT) graphite mining operations in southern Madagascar have not been impacted by the ongoing political situation, and shipments of its graphite products are proceeding as planned, the company confirmed. The East African nation is currently in political turmoil following a military takeover that ousted President Andry Rajoelina. The upheaval began with youth-led protests against economic hardship and corruption, which were then joined by an elite military unit, leading to Rajoelina’s impeachment and flight from the country. According to NextSource, mining and processing activities at its Molo mine are continuing under normal conditions, and its regular campaign production and logistics are both on schedule. The company’s trademarked SuperFlake graphite products are also being shipped to international customers form the port of Tulear without disruption, it added. “NextSource maintains close engagement with community stakeholders to ensure continued collaboration and stability around its operations,” the company stated in a press release, adding that it will continue to monitor the events in Antananarivo, Madagascar’s capital city. Located 900 km away in southern Madagascar, the Molo mine represents one of the world’s largest and highest quality graphite deposits, with over 100 million tonnes in measured and indicated resources grading approximately 6.3% graphitic carbon. The mine, which came online two years ago, currently produces high-quality graphite concentrate with a fixed carbon content between 94-97%. While it has an initial production capacity of 17,000 tonnes per annum, plans are underway for an industry-scale expansion that would see its capacity increase over tenfold. Shares of NextSource plunged 8.9% at Friday’s close amid a market-wide selloff. The Canadian miner has a market capitalization of C$75.8 million ($54 million).

A $450M plan to build a 450-foot statue of Prometheus on Alcatraz Island has been pitched by Ross Calvin, a Bitcoin mining entrepreneur, marking one of the most ambitious monument proposals in recent memory. According to Bloomberg, the concept formally titled The Great Colossus of Prometheus on Alcatraz would feature a towering nickel-bronze sculpture and a high-tech museum dedicated to innovation and entrepreneurship. The project’s estimated height would surpass that of the Statue of Liberty, standing as a symbol of “human triumph” and the spirit of self-sovereignty that crypto advocates often reference. Alcatraz, once a notorious federal prison and now part of the US National Park System, would require special federal authorization for any construction. The island’s protected status means the plan faces long odds and multiple layers of review before any groundwork could begin. DISCOVER: 16+ New and Upcoming Binance Listings in 2025 Why Is a Bitcoin Miner Proposing a $450M Statue on Alcatraz? Calvin, CEO of the Bitcoin mining firm Parhelion and founder of the nonprofit American Colossus Foundation, said the group intends to present a formal proposal with detailed renderings and engineering plans to federal officials by January. Early drafts describe the structure as a “beacon of optimism,” merging art, technology, and myth in a single monumental statement. The timing of the pitch is striking. It lands in a year when crypto wealth and political influence are becoming increasingly intertwined in the United States. From campaign donations to tech-backed policy pushes, blockchain money is emerging as a force in Washington. Against that backdrop, a massive statue celebrating Prometheus, the mythic figure who brought fire to humanity, feels like both a cultural and political message. If built, the Prometheus statue would redefine San Francisco’s skyline and potentially attract millions of visitors each year. DISCOVER: 15+ Upcoming Coinbase Listings to Watch in 2025 How Do Preservation Laws Impact Crypto’s Grandest Monument Idea? But for now, it remains an audacious proposal, one that captures the imagination of the crypto era, even as it faces the realities of regulation, preservation, and public opinion. Alcatraz is part of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area and attracts more than a million visitors each year under long-standing preservation plans. Any attempt to build a large new structure there would face steep legal and regulatory barriers. The National Park Service oversees the island, and any change would likely require state and regional approval as well. Preservation advocates have already spoken out this summer against proposals to alter Alcatraz’s federal stewardship. They call it “one of the most iconic and heavily visited” parks in the country, generating about $60M a year in tourism revenue. Legal experts note that changing the island’s designation would trigger a lengthy public process and review across multiple agencies. That means any redevelopment effort would face years of scrutiny before a single brick could be laid. The pitch arrives as crypto’s role in US politics keeps growing. Fairshake, the industry’s main super PAC, reported raising $260M in the 2023–24 election cycle. The fundraising has continued into 2025, as new committees and donors line up ahead of the 2026 midterms. Last month, the Winklevoss twins added to that momentum with a $21M contribution to a new PAC backing pro-crypto candidates. Advocacy groups have warned that such donations are part of a wider surge of political spending this fall, showing how digital asset policy has become a key Washington issue. Calvin’s nonprofit presents the Prometheus project as a national symbol of ambition and progress, “a beacon of optimism and human triumph.” Materials from Parhelion highlight Calvin’s decade-long work in Bitcoin mining and his leadership of the foundation behind the proposal. DISCOVER: 9+ Best Memecoin to Buy in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Bitcoin OGs Are The New Pharaohs: $450M Statue To Top The Year Crypto Seized US Politics? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Is Keir Starmer coming for your crypto? UK crypto tax raid fears grow, as HMRC crypto tax letters are distributed to 65,000 British crypto traders. The UK crypto tax authority, HMRC, has doubled the number of crypto warning letters it sends, signaling a tougher approach to undeclared digital-asset gains under the new government. According to a Financial Times report, HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) has issued about 65,000 “nudge” letters to residents suspected of under-reporting crypto profits for the 2024–25 tax year, more than twice the 27,700 sent the year before. The campaign is meant to push more investors to voluntarily disclose their gains as HMRC gains deeper access to crypto-exchange data. Falling capital-gains tax (CGT) allowances have also widened the net, bringing more traders into the tax system. The Financial Conduct Authority estimates that roughly 12% of British adults, around 7M people, now hold crypto, highlighting the scale of those who could be affected. DISCOVER: 16+ New and Upcoming Binance Listings in 2025 How Does the UK’s New Crypto Tax Rule Affect Traders in 2025? Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Under HMRC rules, CGT applies when investors sell crypto, trade one token for another, use it for purchases, or gift it, except in limited cases. From the 2024-25 tax year onward, Self Assessment forms include a dedicated crypto asset section, making it easier both to report and for HMRC to review. The UK’s latest crypto tax push is widening the net for traders. The Capital Gains Tax (CGT) allowance has dropped sharply to £3,000 for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 tax years, down from £12,300 just two years ago. That means more people will now need to declare their crypto gains to HMRC. The surge in tax letters comes as the UK prepares to implement the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) starting January 1, 2026. The system will force domestic crypto platforms to collect and share detailed user and transaction data with HMRC and international partners. Notably, the new rules will also exclude cryptocurrency ETNs from UK ISA Investments – further pressuring UK crypto investors. DISCOVER: 15+ Upcoming Coinbase Listings to Watch in 2025 What Does HMRC’s £100M Crypto Tax Plan Mean for Traders? According to HMRC, CARF is designed to “provide visibility on the transactions of users of cryptoassets.” Those who fail to comply could face penalties, while shared data will help identify tax evasion across borders. Treasury estimates suggest the new rules could generate £40M in 2026-27, rising to £110M in 2027–28, before settling around £80M a year by 2029-30. This broader crackdown fits within the Labor government’s plan to narrow the tax gap. The 2025 Spending Review earmarks funding for 5,500 new compliance officers and 2,400 debt-management staff, targeting an additional £7.5Bn in annual revenue by the end of the decade. By sending 65,000 letters, double last year’s count, HMRC aims to combine enforcement with deterrence. With new data-sharing powers and deeper access to exchange records, traders will find it much harder to hide undeclared crypto profits. DISCOVER: 9+ Best Memecoin to Buy in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Is Keir Starmer Coming For Your Crypto? UK Crypto Tax Raid Targets 65,000 Traders appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The Trump administration is ratcheting up government ownership in mining companies that are nominally Canadian, raising questions about whether Ottawa plans similar investments. Trump has ordered his Department of War to take a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals (TSX, NYSE American: TMQ) and help fund South32 (ASX, LSE, JSE: S32), joint partners of the Arctic copper-zinc project in Alaska. That follows a 5% US government stake announced this month in Lithium Americas (TSX, NYSE: LAC), which is developing the $3 billion Thacker Pass project in Nevada. Trilogy and Lithium Americas are based in Vancouver. “The funny part is, they’re not Canadian because all their assets are in the United States, so are they Canadian? Are they American?” says Krisztián Tóth, a partner at Toronto-based law firm Fasken who focuses on mining financing and cross-border transactions. “The national security aspect of this has not been examined fully, but that’s really what it goes to anyway.” The American government investing in Canadian companies isn’t new – that goes back to the Second World War with funding for Quebec aluminum plants – and the Biden administration earmarked millions for projects in Canada through clean energy and transition metals funding. However, Trump officials are promoting direct ownership, which has elated some mining industry players while others urge caution. Canada has a more nuanced approach, at least on paper so far. Prime Minister Mark Carney has opened a Major Projects Office to fast-track energy and mining projects, but he’s stopped short of seeking equity stakes in projects, although the government under his predecessor did buy a gas pipeline to help build it. Carney also makes sure to mention that environmental and Indigenous concerns will be addressed amid government support. Northwest Territories Fortune Minerals (TSX: FT), developing the NICO cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper project in the Northwest Territories with a refinery in Alberta, received $6.4 million last year from the Pentagon as part of a total $17 million from governments on both sides of the border. The project has the world’s largest deposit of bismuth, which is used in products such as Pepto Bismol. “The validation and combined support from the governments have allowed the project to move forward during a challenging environment at a quicker pace than would have been possible with support from only one government,” Fortune President and CEO Robin Goad said in an emailed reply to questions. “The US support was a catalyst for additional Canadian government support.” Mining companies will welcome investment wherever it comes from, given how hard it is to raise funds, Fasken’s Tóth noted. But he urged Ottawa to revise its policy on foreign investment, like how it has been applied to the Chinese. Canada has ordered China-controlled businesses to divest from Canadian companies even when the mineral assets were abroad. “I echo the words of Ronald Reagan: ‘The most dangerous words you’re ever going to hear is, I’m the government, and I’m here to help,’” Tóth said in a phone interview. “As long as there’s a free market and the government doesn’t artificially keep out other potential investors, then it’s healthy for the government to also want to invest in projects. I would prefer there would be more Canadian-based projects than foreign projects, just because we should be developing our own assets. And if the government has an interest in those assets, then they might be more compelled to have policies that favour development.” Asian giant Western nations are targeting the Asian giant which controls some 90% of critical metals mining and processing in a surge of resource nationalism that has lately erupted into a Cold War of critical metals. Washington and Beijing are squaring off over access to advanced US computer chips, and the critical minerals needed for aerospace, defence applications and mobile phones that America craves. MP Materials (NYSE: MP), which holds the producing Mountain Pass rare earths mine in California, secured in July a $400 million agreement with the Pentagon that will see it acquire a 15% stake in MP and buy critical minerals for defence projects. The miner also reached a deal with the Department of Defense in August for a $150 million loan to add heavy rare earth separation capabilities at Mountain Pass. Jay Martin, CEO of mining forum company Cambridge which runs the annual Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, was a bit of two minds on government stakes, but he considers nation states as corporations, and their investment as good for the industry. “It’s a bit distasteful, because I don’t want government in my private business,” Martin told The Northern Miner podcast host Adrian Pocobelli. “But if we could have the firepower of the US government, adding some additional capital, cutting red tape and expediting the permitting processes of our core industries being raw materials, that’s good for commodity investors.” Indeed, the stocks of companies with US government investment have soared on the news. Kevin Torpy, senior vice-president of mining at Graphite One (TSXV: GPH), welcomed $37.5 million in US government funding under Biden in 2023 to advance the $1.13 billion Graphite Creek project in Alaska. “Graphite One is grateful for the funding and believes that this type of federal support for establishing domestic supply chains for graphite and other critical minerals is an important part of the nation’s security,” Torpy said in an emailed reply to questions. The funding helped Graphite One accelerate its feasibility study for the project, deemed to hold America’s largest reserve of the battery metal. More examples Recent Defense Production Act and Department of Energy grants illustrate how widely Washington is investing across North America. In Canada, funding included $20 million in August 2024 for Electra Battery Materials’ (NASDAQ, TSX: ELBM) cobalt sulfate refinery in Temiskaming Shores, Ontario, and $8.35 million in May 2024 for Lomiko Metals (TSXV: LMR) to convert flake graphite into battery-grade anode material. The Quebec government, however, remains opposed to Lomiko’s project after local complaints. Fireweed Metals (TSXV: FWZ) received $15.8 million to advance development studies for the Mactung tungsten project — the world’s largest deposit — in the Northwest Territories and Yukon. In the United States, Canadian companies have also benefited from Biden-era programs, including $114.8 million for Talon Metals (TSX: TLO) to build a nickel processing plant in North Dakota, plus $20.6 million and $2.4 million for expanded exploration and extraction research at its Tamarack project in Minnesota and Michigan. Under Trump, Ucore Rare Metals (TSXV: UCU) secured $18.4 million to scale up rare-earth separation in Louisiana and $4 million from the US Army for separation demonstrations at its Kingston, Ontario. RapidSX plant. Rare earths The US has also broadened its footprint in critical minerals and rare earth projects through new equity, contract and grant support. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) secured a Department of Defense contract to build a heavy rare earth separation facility in Texas, supplementing earlier Title III support for light rare earth processing there. Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ, TSX: PPTA) won up to $6.9 million from the US Army for its Stibnite antimony-gold project in Idaho. NioCorp (NASDAQ, TSX: NB) is slated to receive Title III support via a $10 million award for its Elk Creek rare earth, niobium and titanium project in Nebraska. Golden Metal Resources (AIM: GMET) was awarded $62 million under a Department of Defense program to support tungsten production. Syrah Resources (ASX: SYR) received a conditional commitment of up to $107 million from the US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office to expand lithium-ion battery materials capacity at its Vidalia, Louisiana facility. Opposition The Trump administration is supporting critical minerals projects even where there is local and environmental opposition, like at Rio Tinto’s (ASX: RIO) Resolution project in Arizona and Trilogy’s project in Alaska. There, the environmental advocacy group Sierra Club called the government investment a blow to subsistence communities and wildlife because of potential impact on caribou migration. It remains to be seen if Washington will go as far to support the contentious Pebble copper-gold project in the same state. Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX: NDM; NYSE-A: NAK) is challenging in court the US Environmental Protection Agency’s veto of the project. “It’s good for government to get behind mining projects,” Fasken’s Tóth said. “It’s been a long time since Western governments have been pro-mining. For too long, mining has been the anti-carbon type of view. And it’s actually nice to see that governments are realising that mining plays a central role in the world, much like water and air.” – With files from Henry Lazenby

Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin stash lost more than $20 billion as markets pulled back this month, erasing a chunk of paper wealth tied to the anonymous founder’s early coins. The drop came after Bitcoin skimmed record highs and then tumbled in a fast, wide sell-off that hit many traders and funds. Satoshi’s Holdings And Recent Value Change According to on-chain tracking and Arkham-linked estimates, the set of addresses attributed to Satoshi contains about 1.096 million BTC. That pile of coins reached a peak valuation above $136 billion when Bitcoin traded at just over $126,000 in early October. Reports have disclosed that the same stash is now roughly $20 billion smaller in headline value than at those highs. Market data show how the math works: a swing of several thousand dollars per coin becomes tens of billions of dollars against a million-plus BTC balance. The loss is unrealized — the addresses tied to the creator were not reported to have moved — but the headline number grabbed attention because it highlights how volatile valuations can be for the largest holders. What Triggered The Sell-Off Based on reports from market analysts and mainstream outlets, the crash was set off by a mix of political shocks and exchange-level stress. US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement and related trade threats shook risk markets, and at the same time a rare pricing glitch and thin liquidity on some venues amplified selling pressure. The resulting cascade forced automatic liquidations of large margin positions, which analytics firms put at roughly $19 billion over a short span. Bitcoin’s price briefly fell into the low $104,000s during the worst of the rout on Friday before partial recoveries arrived the next days. That sharp move wiped out gains that had accumulated over recent months and created a rapid re-ranking of the richest-by-paper-wealth lists. Trading desks said the event exposed weaknesses in market plumbing. Orders that would have been absorbed in calmer conditions instead interacted with each other in thin markets, causing price gaps across exchanges. Many traders who had used borrowed capital to amplify bets were forced to exit, which made the slide steeper and quicker. Market Significance And What To Watch Next Analysts caution that a headline loss for Satoshi Nakamoto is mainly a measure of how much value moved on paper; it is not cash that changed hands from the founder. Still, the episode matters because it removed a layer of speculative excess and tested whether major supports hold as flows settle. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView