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Despite US President Trump issuing 14 new tariff letters on Monday, 7 July, Asian stock markets defied expectations. Unlike the sharp sell-off following the 1 April “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, regional indices rallied, many reaching three- to five-day highs in today’s Asian mid-session. close Fig 2: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 8 July 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig 2: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 8 July 2025 (Source: TradingView) The recent 4% minor corrective decline seen on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) from the 25 June high to the 4 July low is likely to have ended. The Hong Kong 33 CFD Index is now likely to be in the process of undergoing a potential fresh impulsive bullish sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase. The hourly RSI momentum indicator has shaped a bullish divergence condition as its oversold region and staged a bullish momentum breakout on Monday, 7 July (see Fig 2). Watch the 23,690 key short-term pivotal support for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 24,270, 24,490, and 24,850. On the other hand, failure to hold at 23,690 negates the bullish tone for a slide towards the next support at 23,450 (also the 50-day moving average), and only a break below it sees a deeper corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 23,060 in the first step. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After achieving its highest weekly close to date, Bitcoin (BTC) is now attempting to confirm two crucial levels as support before continuing its rally to new highs. Some analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency may be experiencing a “calm before the storm” phase. Bitcoin Set For Key Support Confirmations Bitcoin managed to close above two crucial levels over the past few days, recording its highest weekly close in history. Last week, the flagship crypto positioned itself for a reclaim of its final major weekly resistance around $109,000 after nearing this area for four days. On Sunday, BTC surged above the key barrier and closed the week around the $109,200 mark, also successfully confirming its diagonal daily trendline as support. Now, the cryptocurrency is retesting the final resistance to confirm the breakout. Rekt Capital affirmed that the goal is to turn this resistance into support, as it could push BTC to new all-time highs (ATH). He explained that “given how price barely Weekly Closed above the final Weekly resistance, it offers very little chance for price to cleanly retest this level into support; that is, this retest is likely going to be a volatile one.” Nonetheless, the analyst noted that the cryptocurrency has significant High Timeframe (HTF) support beneath it that “should act as a demand area to springboard price into Price Discovery Uptrend 2 over time.” Notably, Bitcoin reclaimed and held the high zone of its re-accumulation range, around the $104,400 mark, as support over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, June Monthly Closed above the $102,464 level and retested it post-breakout “to enable this current July upside candle,” setting it as a monthly support. Additionally, the $107,244 level also emerged as a crucial area after last month’s close, driving BTC “back to its retesting phase.” BTC To Breakout After The Summer? Rekt Capital considers BTC’s current phase as “the calm before the storm,” adding that “for as long as the post-breakout retest will continue, Bitcoin will continue to be positioned for its second Price Discovery Uptrend.” However, he pointed out that it is currently locked between $104,400 and $111,000 levels so far this month. Daan Crypto Trader warned investors that the upcoming days could be crucial for BTC’s price action this month. He highlighted that Bitcoin has tended to set its monthly high or low within the first 12 days over 80% of the time, before price trends around 20% in the opposite direction. Remarkably, June was an exception after Bitcoin remained relatively stable with only small moves in each direction. Now, the analyst thinks it’s time to be “on the lookout again for any big move up or down within the first 12 days” to potentially determine BTC’s trend for the rest of the month. “For now, there has been little action in July yet,” Daan stated, but added that “technically, we’re still looking perfectly” around the current levels. He asserted that, with the slower pace during the summer, BTC could remain within its current range until a real move up begins at the end of Q3 and start of Q4. The trader concluded that the cryptocurrency must officially break out of its range before investors get excited for “much higher later this year.” As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $107,973, a 1% decline in the daily timeframe.

Como as Prop Firms Lucram ? O Modelo de Negócio por Trás das Empresas de Mesa Proprietária Por Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado Financeiro | Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE ExpertFX School - Educação de Elite para Traders de Alta Performance O universo das prop trading firms (empresas de capital proprietário) ganhou enorme popularidade nos últimos anos entre traders de varejo, atraídos pela possibilidade de operar com capital alavancado sem risco direto para seu próprio dinheiro. No entanto, por trás da promessa de contas financiadas, existe um modelo de negócio robusto, estruturado para garantir lucratividade para a empresa — independentemente do desempenho dos traders. Neste artigo, Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro e Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE, analisa como essas empresas realmente lucram, quais são as principais fontes de receita, os custos ocultos para os traders e o que esperar ao se envolver nesse mercado. A análise também traz insights sobre o impacto no setor financeiro e no comportamento dos traders. 📊 As Fontes de Receita das Prop Firms Diferentemente dos brokers tradicionais, que lucram principalmente com spreads e comissões sobre ordens reais, as prop firms modernas utilizam um modelo híbrido, baseado principalmente em taxas de avaliação, divisão de lucros e monetização de contas simuladas. Abaixo, detalhamos os principais canais de receita: 1. Taxas de Avaliação (Challenge Fees) A principal fonte de receita das prop firms é a cobrança de taxas para participar de processos de avaliação, onde o trader precisa demonstrar habilidade, consistência e controle de risco em uma conta demo. Essas taxas podem variar de: US$ 40 para contas de US$ 5.000 Até US$ 3.000 para contas de US$ 200.000 a US$ 500.000 A maioria dos traders não passa na avaliação inicial, o que torna essa etapa extremamente lucrativa para a empresa. Algumas prop firms operam quase exclusivamente com esse modelo, sem sequer executar negociações reais no mercado. 2. Assinaturas Mensais Em vez de cobrar apenas uma taxa única, algumas prop firms adotam o modelo de assinatura recorrente, onde o trader paga mensalmente para manter sua avaliação ativa ou sua conta financiada. Essa receita é previsível e escalável. 3. Divisão de Lucros (Profit Split) Quando o trader é aprovado e recebe uma conta financiada, ele entra em um acordo de divisão de lucros. A média do setor é: Trader fica com 70% a 90% A prop firm retém 10% a 30% Algumas empresas oferecem modelos híbridos, onde o trader mantém 100% dos primeiros US$ 10.000, antes de iniciar a divisão. 4. Spreads e Comissões Prop firms que oferecem execução no mercado real (ou simulada com custo artificial) lucram com: Aumento do spread Comissões por operação Mesmo em contas simuladas, os custos são cobrados e os lucros obtidos com as perdas dos traders, que não afetam o capital da empresa. 5. Custos Ocultos Muitas prop firms agregam custos adicionais como: Taxas de plataforma (MT4, MT5, cTrader) Taxas de acesso a dados em tempo real Taxas de “reset” para quem falha na avaliação Taxas de saque, conversão ou gerenciamento Esses custos corroem a margem líquida do trader e aumentam a rentabilidade da empresa. 6. Educação e Serviços Complementares Algumas prop firms expandem seu modelo oferecendo cursos, mentorias, pacotes educacionais e comunidades exclusivas. Trata-se de uma monetização indireta do desejo de muitos traders por acesso a capital e performance consistente. 📉 O Modelo de Desafio (Challenge) e as Pegadinhas do Fracasso O modelo de desafio é estruturado para testar: Alvos de lucro (geralmente 8% a 10%) Sem gerenciamento de risco a maioria quebra em menos de 1 mês, querendo "passar os desafios rápidos"... Limites de perda diária (geralmente 4% a 5%) ou seja, sua mesa de $100.000 USD não é $100.000 USD e sim $5.000, e o mesmo para outros capitais. Perda total máxima (frequentemente 8% a 10%) Regras de consistência e tempo mínimo de operações Deixar ordem no final de semana aberta? NÃO PODE. Abir compra e venda ao mesmo tempo? NÃO PODE apenas um desvio e você perde a mesa nas pegadinhas... Estudos de mercado e dados internos sugerem que menos de 10% dos traders passam o desafio na primeira tentativa. Isso cria um ciclo de recorrência: tentativa, fracasso, nova inscrição — gerando receita contínua para o site que fornece esses tipos de serviços. 💡 Funded Accounts: Capital Real ou Simulado? Nem todas as prop firms operam com execução real no mercado. A maioria usam contas simuladas (DEMO), mesmo após a aprovação do trader. Nesse caso, as perdas dos traders não impactam a empresa, que mantém 100% do capital intacto. Isso levanta preocupações éticas e regulatórias, já que: A empresa lucra com a falha do trader Não existe execução verdadeira de ordens Pode haver conflito de interesse Já as prop firms com execução real precisam gerenciar risco com maior sofisticação, tornando o modelo mais sustentável, porém com margem reduzida. 🧠 O Impacto no Comportamento do Trader O modelo de prop trading pode gerar comportamentos prejudiciais se o trader não estiver preparado para: Pressão por resultados rápidos Gestão emocional diante de alvos e limites rígidos Repetidas frustrações e custos acumulados É fundamental que o trader veja o desafio como uma ferramenta de disciplina e aprendizado, e não como atalho para lucros fáceis. 📈 O Mercado de Prop Firms: Um Negócio Lucrativo O crescimento explosivo das prop firms mostra que o modelo é altamente lucrativo para as empresas, especialmente porque elas: Lucram com a falha da maioria dos traders Cobram múltiplas taxas e comissões Limitam o risco com contas simuladas Criam modelos escaláveis com base em assinaturas e cursos Ao mesmo tempo, o setor atrai traders com pouco capital inicial, que veem na prop trading uma chance de escalar seus resultados com risco limitado. 🔍 Conclusão do analista Igor Pereira: Vale a Pena Para o Trader? Para o trader disciplinado, com gestão de risco sólida e consistência operacional, sim — o modelo pode ser vantajoso. É possível operar grandes contas sem arriscar capital próprio e receber pagamentos mensais conforme o desempenho. No entanto, é essencial entender o modelo de negócios das prop firms para evitar armadilhas e frustrações. O sucesso exige preparo técnico, psicológico e financeiro — e não ilusão de acesso rápido ao lucro. Eu não recomendo o uso de mesas proprietárias, o seu psicológico não é preparado para passar em desafios... Imagine, trabalhar, analisar, estudar o mercado, as vezes durante 1 ou 2 meses sem ganhar nada por isso, até que você receba a conta "..real/falsa...". É a onde a maioria dos 90% de Traders cria um ciclo vicioso oculto de ir lá e "tentar" de novo... Muitas vezes, você acaba gastando em tentativas mais de $200 dólares em mesas proprietárias tentando passar desafios, as vezes, em insistência, sem lucrar nada por isso e se passa 2, 3 meses.... Me pergunto? não era mais fácil colocar esses 200 dólares em uma corretora confiável (conta real), em seu nome, com gerenciamento de risco, fazer apenas 5$ dólares por dia com esse capital? tendo em conta que o mês tem 20 dias úteis, com apenas 5 dólares por dia, você teria no final do mês 50% de lucro do seu depósito de $200 dólares, lucro (exemplar teórico) de $100, podendo sacar quando quiser, sem qualquer burocracia. Deixo uma pergunta, se você não consegue responder minha pergunta acima, e muito menos já conseguiu obter consistência em gerenciamento disciplinar fazendo 5$ dólares por dia em uma conta de 200$, você acha mesmo que vai conseguir passar nos testes da mesa proprietária? Se você não está preparado para o mercado "real", a onde não há exigências e burocracias, apenas controle disciplinar e estudos, você estará perdendo tempo e dinheiro nessas empresas que contém pegadinhas (regras) para que você perca o controle e quebre logo a sua conta. O que esperar do mercado: Com a expansão do setor e o surgimento de novas prop firms semanalmente, é provável que haja: Consolidação de marcas confiáveis Regulação mais rígida em alguns países Inovação em modelos de avaliação e pagamento Aumento da competição com ofertas mais acessíveis Por fim, logo, para o verdadeiro Trader, isso representa mais oportunidades, mas também exige mais cautela e discernimento na escolha da empresa ideal. Por Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado Financeiro | Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE ExpertFX School - Educação de Elite para Traders de Alta Performance

📢🇺🇸 Trump adia prazo final para acordos comerciais e ameaça retaliação tarifária simétrica O presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, assinou hoje uma Ordem Executiva prorrogando o prazo final para a assinatura de acordos comerciais com países parceiros de 9 de julho para 1º de agosto. A medida representa mais uma postergação na aplicação dos novos pacotes tarifários unilaterais anunciados pela Casa Branca nos últimos meses. 📝 Resumo da decisão Novo prazo: 1º de agosto passa a ser a data-limite para que países negociem com os EUA e evitem tarifas punitivas. Cartas formais: 14 países já foram oficialmente notificados da imposição de tarifas entre 10% e 40%, a depender da origem e do tipo de produto. Ameaça de retaliação: Trump advertiu que qualquer aumento de tarifas contra os EUA será respondido com aumentos equivalentes por parte americana, em um movimento de retaliação simétrica. 🌍 Contexto e implicações globais A nova rodada de tarifas se insere em um momento em que a administração Trump busca remodelar o comércio global sob uma lógica bilateral e nacionalista. A prorrogação indica que há espaço para negociações diplomáticas, mas também reforça o tom agressivo e unilateral da política comercial americana. Países como Japão, Coreia do Sul, Índia, África do Sul e Malásia estão entre os que ainda não fecharam acordos com os EUA e correm risco de serem afetados diretamente. 📊 Impacto nos mercados financeiros 🟡 Ouro (XAU/USD): Alta de demanda por segurança pode continuar sustentando os preços acima de US$ 3.300, com projeções estendidas para US$ 3.400 em caso de escalada tarifária. 💵 Dólar (DXY): Testando suporte de múltiplos anos, mas ameaças comerciais podem fortalecer o USD no curto prazo via aversão a risco. 📉 Mercados emergentes: Moedas como o peso mexicano, real brasileiro e rand sul-africano tendem a sofrer com volatilidade e fuga de capital. 🏭 Setores industriais e exportadores nos EUA já sentem os efeitos do risco tarifário — queda nas exportações, revisão de guidance e adiamento de investimentos. 🔮 O que esperar Até 1º de agosto, o foco dos mercados estará em sinais de trégua ou avanço nas negociações comerciais. O histórico de Trump mostra que mudanças repentinas de tom são comuns, mas a escalada tarifária atual é a mais abrangente desde 2018–2019. Se implementadas, essas tarifas podem reativar temores de recessão global e desaceleração industrial nos EUA, especialmente diante de dados recentes de desemprego e contração na produção manufatureira. 📌 Análise técnica e macroeconômica por Igor Pereira — ExpertFX School Para traders, o momento exige gestão rígida de risco e atenção especial aos dados macroeconômicos e à retórica da Casa Branca. Em tempos de incerteza tarifária, o ouro e ativos defensivos continuam sendo os principais beneficiários.

An analyst has pointed out three key resistance levels for Dogecoin that could be to keep an eye on, based on on-chain data. Dogecoin URPD Shows These Price Levels Stand Out In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has shared DOGE levels that could be important resistance boundaries. The levels in question correspond to major supply walls on the Dogecoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). The URPD is an on-chain indicator from the analytics firm Glassnode that tells us about the total amount of the memecoin’s supply that was last purchased at the different price levels that it has visited over history. Now, here is the chart posted by Martinez that shows how the URPD looks for Dogecoin right now: As displayed in the above graph, the level closest to the latest Dogecoin spot price that stands out in terms of the URPD is $0.18. The investors last purchased around 8.94% of the asset’s supply around this mark. Naturally, as the level is above the spot price, all of these holders would be in the red at the moment. Generally, investors in loss look forward to retests of their break-even mark so that they can get their money ‘back.’ Often, these holders push for the exit as soon as this happens, fearing that the price would go back down again in the near future. As such, whenever the price retests the cost basis of a notable part of the supply from below, a significant selling reaction can sometimes appear in the market. This can provide resistance to the cryptocurrency. Considering that the $0.18 level is particularly large, it can act as a point of notable resistance. Similarly, the analyst has also flagged two other levels: $0.21 (7.24% of supply) and $0.36 (3.82% of supply). Interestingly, between these two, there aren’t any significant supply walls, meaning that if Dogecoin can get into this zone, it may, at least in theory, have an easier time climbing up. In the scenario that DOGE gets rejected at the resistance, however, it may have to find support at the in-profit supply zones. Holders belonging to these levels can react to declines to their cost basis by buying more, as they may believe the drawdown to be just a dip-buying opportunity. The only level below the current Dogecoin spot price that stands out in terms of supply is all the way down at $0.07. It hosts the acquisition mark of 20.03% of the memecoin’s supply, which means that it’s massive in size, and so, could be a strong support center. DOGE Price At the time of writing, Dogecoin is floating around $0.168, up 1.6% in the last seven days.

BNB price is gaining pace above the $650 support zone. The price is now showing positive signs and might aim for more gains in the near term. BNB price is attempting to recover from the $620 support zone. The price is now trading above $655 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance at $662 on the hourly chart of the BNB/USD pair (data source from Binance). The pair must stay above the $655 level to start another increase in the near term. BNB Price Eyes More Gains After forming a base above the $620 level, BNB price started a fresh increase. There was a move above the $645 and $650 resistance levels, like Ethereum and Bitcoin. The price even surged above the $660 level. A high was formed at $666 before there was a downside correction. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $650 swing low to the $666 swing high. The price is now trading above $655 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $662 level. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance at $662 on the hourly chart of the BNB/USD pair. The next resistance sits near the $665 level. A clear move above the $665 zone could send the price higher. In the stated case, BNB price could test $672. A close above the $672 resistance might set the pace for a larger move toward the $680 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $700 level in the near term. Another Decline? If BNB fails to clear the $662 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $655 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $650 swing low to the $666 swing high. The next major support is near the $650 level. The main support sits at $644. If there is a downside break below the $644 support, the price could drop toward the $632 support. Any more losses could initiate a larger decline toward the $620 level. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for BNB/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BNB/USD is currently above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $655 and $650. Major Resistance Levels – $662 and $665.

📈🇦🇺 Austrália mantém taxa básica de juros em 3,85% — decisão surpreende o mercado 🔹 Banco Central da Austrália (RBA) manteve hoje sua taxa de juros inalterada em 3,85%, contrariando a expectativa do mercado, que projetava um corte para 3,60%. A decisão reforça a postura mais cautelosa do RBA diante de pressões inflacionárias persistentes. 🧠 O que esperar a partir de agora? Apesar de sinais de desaceleração econômica e aumento do desemprego, o RBA decidiu não flexibilizar a política monetária neste momento. A autoridade monetária justificou a decisão com base em: Inflação de serviços ainda elevada; Salários acima do esperado no setor privado; Incertezas sobre o comportamento da inflação nos próximos trimestres. 📊 Impacto nos mercados financeiros 💵 AUD/USD: O dólar australiano reagiu com alta moderada frente ao dólar americano, já que parte do mercado precificava corte. A manutenção fortalece temporariamente o AUD. 🟡 XAU/USD (Ouro): O ouro pode manter sua trajetória de alta frente à cautela global com juros, mas essa decisão específica tende a ser neutra para o metal no curto prazo. 📉 Bolsa australiana (ASX): Índices locais reagem com leve correção, já que setores sensíveis a juros (como construção civil e varejo) esperavam alívio nas taxas. 🔮 Próximos passos e expectativas A manutenção da taxa pode indicar que o RBA ainda não está convencido de que a inflação retornará à meta de forma sustentável. No entanto, se os próximos dados de emprego e inflação mostrarem enfraquecimento mais claro, cortes podem ser retomados já no terceiro trimestre de 2025. 📌 Análise por Igor Pereira – ExpertFX School Mantenha-se atento aos desdobramentos da política monetária global: Austrália, Reino Unido, Canadá e EUA sinalizam caminhos divergentes em meio ao novo ciclo de reprecificação do risco.

In just two weeks, the market cap for tokenized stocks on the Solana network has jumped from $13 million to more than $48 million, according to CoinGecko. This kind of momentum shows a growing appetite for real-world assets that can be traded on-chain, without all the usual delays and restrictions of traditional markets. A tokenized stock is a digital asset that mirrors the price of a real stock, giving traders a faster way to access equities. Why People Are Paying Attention Tokenized stocks have been floating around for a while, but they’re starting to get real traction. The basic idea is to take a regular stock, like Apple or Tesla, and issue a token that reflects its value. These tokens let people trade shares using crypto infrastructure, skipping over brokers and banks and operating on a 24/7 schedule. That kind of flexibility is a big draw for users outside the usual market hours or in countries with limited stock access. Source: Shutterstock On Solana, the interest is picking up fast. The network’s speed and low transaction costs make it a good match for financial products that need to move quickly. Companies like Backed Finance and trading protocols like Jupiter have been helping bridge the gap between equities and DeFi tools. The stocks themselves are wrapped through regulated providers, meaning the tokens are backed by real shares held off-chain. Stocks People Actually Want Tesla and Apple are leading the pack. Their tokenized versions on Solana are seeing strong volume, especially from people who might not have direct access to U.S. markets. Other big names are getting pulled in too. You can now find tokenized versions of the S&P 500, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and others. These aren’t perfect replacements for owning the actual stock, since they don’t offer things like voting rights or dividends, but they track the price and give traders an easy way to get exposure. SolanaPriceMarket CapSOL$79.41B24h7d30d1yAll time Oracles and custodians keep the token prices aligned with the real-world market. It’s not a full replacement for the stock market, but it’s a fast and flexible alternative for people who want to trade without waiting for Wall Street to open. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 Why Solana Makes Sense Solana has been building momentum for a while, and this fits right into that story. The chain’s ability to handle a lot of transactions quickly and at a low cost makes it an ideal place to test tokenized assets. While Ethereum has traditionally been the go-to for financial experiments, Solana’s performance and growing DeFi presence are putting it on the map. This also comes as more institutions and developers explore how to tokenize all sorts of things, from real estate and treasuries to fine art and private credit. The idea is simple: bring more of the real world into a format that can be used in digital systems. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 What’s Can We Expect? Solana’s tokenized stock market is still small compared to the actual exchanges, but the pace of growth shows there’s real interest. If rules around this kind of trading become clearer and more providers get on board, it could turn into a much bigger market. Right now, the tools are there, the demand is rising, and the pieces are falling into place. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Tokenized stocks on Solana surged from $13M to $48M in two weeks, showing growing interest in real-world assets onchain. Solana’s low fees and fast speeds make it ideal for trading tokenized equities like Apple and Tesla around the clock. These tokens track real stock prices but don’t offer dividends or voting rights, making them price-exposure tools, not full replacements. Projects like Backed Finance and Jupiter are driving adoption by connecting traditional stocks with DeFi infrastructure. Solana is emerging as a strong contender for tokenized assets, offering a faster and cheaper alternative to Ethereum for real-world trading. The post Solana’s Tokenized Stock Market Jumps to $48 Million as On-Chain Trading Grows appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

XRP price started a strong upward move above the $2.250 zone and tested $2.35. The price is now correcting gains below the $2.30 level. XRP price started a fresh increase above the $2.250 zone. The price is now trading above $2.250 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $2.2650 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start another increase if it stays above the $2.240 zone. XRP Price Fails To Retains Gains XRP price started a fresh increase after it settled above the $2.250 level, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above the $2.2850 resistance level. The bulls were able to push the price above the $2.30 level. However, the bears remained active near the $2.350 zone. The price faced rejection and started a fresh decline. It declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.205 swing low to the $2.353 high. Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $2.2650 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading above $2.250 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.280 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.2880 level. A clear move above the $2.2880 resistance might send the price toward the $2.320 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.350 resistance or even $2.3650 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be $2.40. More Losses? If XRP fails to clear the $2.2880 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.250 level. The next major support is near the $2.240 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.205 swing low to the $2.353 high. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.240 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $2.220 support. The next major support sits near the $2.20 zone. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.250 and $2.240. Major Resistance Levels – $2.2880 and $2.320.

Bitcoin has continued to trade within a tight range just below its previous all-time high, showing recent signs of upward movement but falling short of reclaiming its peak price. The asset recorded a seven-day high of $110,307, but it has since cooled, with current trading levels around $108,311, representing a slight 0.3% drop over the last 24 hours. While the broader market maintains cautious optimism, several indicators suggest that market participants remain split on where Bitcoin is headed next. Bitcoin Shorts Increase on Binance Despite Price Climb Despite the price strength seen in recent days, certain signals hint at increasing friction between bullish price action and bearish positioning from traders. According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest, Bitcoin’s rise is being met with a counterintuitive decline in funding rates on Binance, the largest crypto exchange by volume. This trend could play a crucial role in shaping short-term market behavior. BorisVest noted that as Bitcoin consolidates within the $100,000 to $110,000 range, funding rates on Binance have gradually declined. This suggests that a significant number of traders are taking short positions—essentially betting that Bitcoin’s rally will soon reverse. The analyst explained that this behavior indicates skepticism about the sustainability of the recent price gains, particularly among retail and leverage-focused traders. “The declining funding rates show that users on Binance are increasingly shorting Bitcoin,” he explained. “This dynamic often creates forced exits as short positions come under pressure, leading to liquidations or forced margin increases. These events can further propel upward price movement as positions get closed out automatically.” Given Binance’s dominance in trading volume, BorisVest emphasized that its funding rate trend serves as a strong proxy for overall market sentiment. If current positioning continues, the market may see a short squeeze, which could accelerate Bitcoin’s momentum toward new highs. On-Chain Metric Flags Caution as NVT Golden Cross Edges Higher While futures market dynamics are drawing attention, on-chain data is also showing signs worth monitoring. Another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, highlighted the movement of Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross metric, a tool used to assess market value in relation to on-chain transaction volume. This metric has historically signaled local tops when it moves above specific thresholds. In his analysis, Kesmeci pointed out that the NVT Golden Cross successfully identified three prior short-term peaks in 2025, each followed by corrections ranging from 9% to over 20%. The metric currently sits at 1.98, below the 2.2 threshold that has often indicated overheated market conditions, but is trending upward. “While the current level isn’t yet in the danger zone,” Kesmeci wrote, “its upward trajectory could be an early warning that price momentum is beginning to overextend.” However, the analyst cautioned against interpreting the signal as immediately bearish. In previous cases, the NVT Golden Cross remained elevated for several days before a correction followed. This behavior may instead point to continued strength among bulls, at least in the medium term, even if a near-term pullback remains possible. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart form TradingView

Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,520 zone. ETH is now correcting some gains and might aim for a fresh move above $2,580. Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $2,520 level. The price is trading below $2,550 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,530 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it remains supported above the $2,520 zone in the near term. Ethereum Price Revisits Support Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,550 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price gained pace for a move above the $2,565 resistance zone and entered a positive zone. The bulls were able to push the price above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,636 swing high to the $2,475 low. However, the bears remained active near the $2,600 resistance zone and protected more gains. The price faced rejection near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,636 swing high to the $2,475 low. Ethereum price is now trading below $2,550 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. ETH is now testing the $2,520 support. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,530 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $2,550 level. The next key resistance is near the $2,580 level. The first major resistance is near the $2,600 level. A clear move above the $2,600 resistance might send the price toward the $2,650 resistance. An upside break above the $2,650 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,720 resistance zone or even $2,800 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,580 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,520 level. The first major support sits near the $2,500 zone. A clear move below the $2,500 support might push the price toward the $2,450 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,350 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $2,320. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $2,520 Major Resistance Level – $2,600

As the crypto market moves sideways with low volatility on low timeframes, the XRP price trends to the upside. According to several analysts, the cryptocurrency is set to re-test previous highs as it completes a key bullish price pattern. At the time of writing, the XRP price trades at $2.33. Over the past 24 hours, the digital asset gained 2.5% on its price, and over the past seven days almost 7%, per data provided by CoinGecko. XRP Price Poised For Further Gains Analyst Ali Martinez has been following the XRP price performance. As seen on the chart below, the cryptocurrency is close to completing an inverse head and shoulders pattern. If the cryptocurrency successfully completes this pattern, the analyst believes that it can achieve a breakout to the $2.6 area. In that sense, traders should closely monitor any bullish price action close to the $2.35 area, and an hourly close above this level as potential confirmation. Last week, Martinez pointed at a similar breakout as the XRP price trended around the $2.2 level. However, at that time, the cryptocurrency failed to achieve the $2.35 breakout and continued trading in a tight channel between this level and $2.13. A separate analyst believes that XRP is close to a rally and placed the target above Martinez’s claiming that the cryptocurrency could hit $2.69 on short timeframes. For this analyst, a breakout above $2.4 holds the key to future gains. The analyst stated: $XRP strength is telling. Something is brewing What’s Behind the Momentum? The XRP price positive performance could be attributed to the massive inflow of capital coming into its ecosystem. A report from CoinShares claims that the total Asset under Management for cryptocurrencies hit a high of $188 billion, and $1 billion just over the past week. XRP has seen $335 million in year-to-date inflows, and a $10.6 million inflow over the past week. Several analysts believe these inflows represent bullish expectations for the cryptocurrency as Ripple is close to securing a banking license from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. If the company can secure this permit, the XRP Ledger ecosystem is bound to see massive levels of adoption of more users, especially from the US, turned to its native stablecoin RLUSD. Cover image from ChatGPT, chart from Ali Martinez, CoinShares; XRPUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $110,000 zone. BTC is now declining and might trade below the $107,500 support zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the $110,000 zone. The price is trading below $108,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $108,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $106,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price started a fresh increase after it settled above the $108,500 resistance. BTC cleared many hurdles near $109,000 to start a decent increase but it failed to clear $110,000. A high was formed at $109,700 and the price started a fresh decline. There was a move below the $109,200 and $108,500 levels. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $108,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $108,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $108,150 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $109,700 swing high to the $107,674 low. The first key resistance is near the $108,500 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $109,700 swing high to the $107,674 low. A close above the $108,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $110,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $112,000 level. The main target could be $115,000. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $108,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $107,500 level. The first major support is near the $106,500 level. The next support is now near the $105,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $104,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,500, below which BTC might continue to move down. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $107,500, followed by $106,500. Major Resistance Levels – $108,500 and $106,500.

The Global Money Supply has just hit a rare yearly growth rate of 9%. Here’s what followed for Bitcoin the last few times this signal appeared. Global Money Supply Is Currently Sharply Going Up In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has talked about the latest trend in the Global Money Supply. The “Global Money Supply” refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of fiat supply (priced in US Dollars) issued by the top countries around the world. Below is the chart shared by Edwards that shows the data for the year-on-year growth in the metric: As displayed in the graph, the metric’s value has recently been witnessing an increase, indicating that fiat supply is going up. “Central banks are flooding the market with fiat money,” notes the analyst. Currently, the indicator stands at around 9%, which corresponds to the Global Money Supply undergoing a 9% jump over the last twelve months. “This is extreme and rare,” says Edwards. In the same chart, the Capriole Investments founder has also attached the historical data of the daily Bitcoin price. Interestingly, past surges of the metric to this level all preceded significant bull rallies for the cryptocurrency over the next twelve months. More specifically, the August 2017 signal led to a 663% surge, the November 2017 one to a 136% increase, and the June 2020 one to a 580% rally. This comes to an average gain of 460%. Thus, it would appear that money printers being busy around the world is something that tends to be bullish for Bitcoin. Considering that the Global Money Supply is once again rising at an appreciable rate, it only remains to be seen whether BTC will once again feel a positive effect over the coming year. In some other news, the Bitcoin network recently saw its largest ever movement of coins older than ten years, as CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has pointed out in an X post. In total, this latest spike of transactions involving ancient coins saw the movement of around 81,000 BTC, worth a whopping $8.8 billion. Generally, old coins move when they are being sold, so these transfers could correspond to profit-taking. Interestingly, the Apparent Demand indicator has remained positive for Bitcoin even after these transactions, as Edwards has explained in another X post. This metric gauges the demand for Bitcoin by comparing its production (mining issuance) against its inventory (supply inactive over 1 year). “Despite 80,000 BTC moving, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand is still bullish,” says the analyst. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $108,400, up 0.7% over the last week.

🟡💵 A Queda do Dólar: Ouro Já é o 2º Maior Ativo de Reserva do Mundo 📊 Por Igor Pereira – ExpertFX School | Análise Macrofinanceira e Geopolítica Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE 🌍 Transformação na Composição das Reservas Internacionais O sistema monetário global está passando por mudanças históricas na forma como os bancos centrais alocam seus ativos de reserva. O que antes era um domínio absoluto do dólar americano, agora dá espaço para uma diversificação acelerada, com destaque crescente para o ouro e moedas alternativas. 📉 Dólar cai abaixo de 50% nas reservas globais (incluindo ouro) Segundo dados recentes: Ano Participação do USD (incluindo ouro) Ouro nas reservas globais "Outras moedas" + Ouro 2007 71% 11% 22% 2025 <50% 2º maior ativo de reserva global 38% 📌 O que está acontecendo? Perda de confiança no dólar: A política monetária expansionista dos EUA, os crescentes déficits fiscais e as sucessivas guerras comerciais levaram diversos países a repensarem sua dependência do dólar como ativo de reserva. Ouro: o ativo neutro e confiável: Bancos centrais vêm acumulando ouro nos últimos anos como forma de proteção contra inflação, riscos geopolíticos e instabilidade cambial — com destaque para China, Polônia, Turquia e Cazaquistão. Emergentes diversificando agressivamente: Economias emergentes estão liderando o movimento rumo a moedas alternativas como yuan chinês (CNY), dirham dos Emirados, rúpia indiana, além de CBDCs e moedas locais em acordos bilaterais. O avanço do ouro sobre o euro: A estagnação econômica da Europa, combinada com a fragmentação política no bloco, tem reduzido o apelo do euro como ativo de reserva. Enquanto isso, o ouro ocupa o segundo lugar global — atrás apenas do USD. ⚠️ Impactos no Mercado Financeiro 🟡 Para o Ouro (XAU/USD): Forte suporte estrutural para altas sustentadas, com projeções técnicas já acima de US$ 3.300 (atualmente cotado a US$ 3.330). Tendência de longo prazo apoiada pela acumulação de bancos centrais e desconfiança crescente nas moedas fiduciárias. 💵 Para o Dólar (DXY): Pressão de médio prazo, especialmente diante de tarifas protecionistas unilaterais, sanções e aumento dos déficits. Suporte técnico crítico nos 96.97 pontos, com risco de rompimento. 🌐 Para investidores institucionais: Cresce o interesse por ETFs de ouro, contratos futuros e ouro físico como proteção sistêmica. Necessidade de revisar alocações cambiais, diversificando além de USD/EUR. 🔮 O que esperar daqui para frente? 💰 Continuidade no acúmulo de ouro por bancos centrais, especialmente de países BRICS e aliados. 🌏 Crescimento das moedas locais em transações internacionais, especialmente entre países do Sul Global. 🧱 Fortalecimento da arquitetura financeira alternativa, como BRICS Pay, redes de liquidação multimoeda e acordos de swap cambial regional. 📢 Conclusão: A transição para um sistema monetário multipolar já está em curso. O ouro retorna ao protagonismo como reserva de valor confiável e ativo geopolítico estratégico. Com o dólar abaixo de 50% nas reservas globais, a hegemonia monetária dos EUA está sendo contestada — não apenas em palavras, mas em alocações reais de ativos. 📊 Por Igor Pereira – Membro Wall Street NYSE 🔗 Acompanhe mais análises macroeconômicas e geopolíticas em ExpertFX School - crie sua conta no site e siga os tópicos para obter notificação via e-mail.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 7% over the last two weeks, showing signs of strength despite expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming July 30 meeting. However, some indicators suggest that the market may be entering overheating territory. Bitcoin Market Entering Overheating Territory? According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkesmeci, the Bitcoin Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Golden Cross is on the rise. Importantly, this upward movement is beginning to signal signs of market overheating. For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is a technical indicator that compares short-term and long-term moving averages of the NVT ratio to identify potential market tops or bottoms. When the short-term NVT crosses above the long-term average, it often signals that Bitcoin is becoming overvalued and may face a short-term correction. Notably, this indicator has successfully predicted three local tops so far in 2025. The first occurred on February 5, when the NVT Golden Cross hit 2.68 while BTC traded at $97,600, followed by a 23.65% correction. On March 24, the indicator peaked at 2.87 with BTC around $87,500, leading to a subsequent correction of 16.06%. Most recently – on June 16 – it rose to 2.21 with BTC trading at $106,800, which was followed by a 9.87% price dip. Currently, the NVT Golden Cross stands at 1.98. Although it hasn’t crossed the key 2.2 threshold yet, its upward trajectory suggests that market overheating could be brewing. The CryptoQuant analyst explained: Breaking its previous high is moderately bullish and shows momentum is building. If the metric crosses 2.2 again, it may hint at a local top. But don’t rush to exit – historically, the metric has stayed above 2.2 for several days. In conclusion, burakkesmeci noted that while crossing the 2.2 level might suggest Bitcoin is heating up in the short-term, it could also signal a return of bullish momentum in the medium-term. That said, the opinion on BTC’s short-term price trajectory is largely divided. Analysts Split Over BTC Price Action ​​The NVT Golden Cross suggests that BTC may still have room to rally before hitting a potential local top. However, some analysts foresee a short-term pullback before Bitcoin reaches new highs. For instance, noted crypto analyst Chistian Chifoi described the current BTC price action as a “deceptive setup,” warning it may trap bulls before a possible surge toward a new all-time high (ATH) of $160,000. Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode forecasts BTC’s short-term peak at $117,000. At press time, BTC trades at $108,204, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours.

Crypto analyst Javon Marks has provided a bullish outlook for the Shiba Inu price, predicting a potential rally of 180%. The analyst alluded to an indicator that suggests that SHIB can record this explosive rally, reclaiming the psychological $0.00002 level in the process. Shiba Inu Price Eyes 180% Rally As MACD Forms Bullish Divergence In an X post, Javon Marks stated that the Shiba Inu price has formed a clear Bullish Divergence with its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). He further remarked that this points to a nearly 180% upside for SHIB to rally to $0.000032. Marks added that this may only be the start of a much larger positive reversal for the meme coin. His accompanying chart showed that the Shiba Inu price could hit this target between now and year-end. This provides a bullish outlook for the meme coin, which has greatly underperformed this year. SHIB has recorded a 45% loss year-to-date (YTD). Meanwhile, the coin is also down over 8% in the last 30 days. This represents a change of fortune for the meme coin, which recorded a gain of around 150% in 2024. However, based on Javon Marks’ analysis, the Shiba Inu price could still end this year in the green if it records this projected 180% rally. SHIB could also reclaim one of the top 10 spots in the ranking of cryptocurrencies by market cap. Fundamentals like the SHIB burns and network activity could spark this momentum for the Shiba Inu price. In an X post, a SHIB community member revealed that the meme coin has just shattered another record. Over 1.5 million on-chain wallets now hold the meme coin, with the number still rising. However, the SHIB burns will need to pick up as they remain unstable. Shibburn data shows that the daily burns have crashed by over 82%, with 1.5 million SHIB burned in the last 24 hours. The burn rate is also down around 11% in the last seven days, with 48 million SHIB burned during this period. SHIB Can Rally As Much As 600% Javon Marks is still confident that the Shiba Inu price can rally as much as 600% in the long term. He recently stated that the $0.000081 target for SHIB remains unchanged and that sights are still on an over 609% uphill run to reach it in response to a massive holding breakout of the displayed resisting trend. The analyst remarked that due to the post-breakout action, he sees this target being broken above, bringing $0.0001553 in play. Marks, however, failed to provide a specific timeline for when this 600% Shiba Inu price rally could occur. At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.00001181, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Log in to today’s North American session Recap for July 7, 2025 Today's lack of Economic Calendar releases was expected to be a relatively calm session, but looking at the bigger picture (as a trader should always due), geopolitical turmoil was poised to move market. The upcoming July 9th Trump deadline had been overlooked too much for too long, as the past few weeks of ecstatic mood had taken markets from War fears to Greed levels unseen in 2025. The infamous Trump tariffs appear more real than ever, with today's letters that were sent to different country leaders – with the latest being a menace to Japan of 25% tariffs on all imports from the Land of the Rising Sun – USDJPY is up 1.15% (1660 pips) on the session. Oil has started to move upwards, as markets shred off higher supply – however some of that movement had been felt from technical hints, as seen in our latest WTI Analysis which can still provide good insights for levels of interest. All energy products are also getting dragged up by this uptrend, further supplemented by some increased tensions in Russia and Ukraine. An upper US Dollar has dragged Stock indices quite a lot, with all major Indices in the US down between 0.90% (S&P and Nasdaq) to 1.10% (Dow Jones) – The Russell and the Nippon Nikkei are both down above 1.60% from the tariff fears. Read More: Silver consolidates close to the 2012 highs, poised for a breakout? Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The liquidity engine that has supported risk assets, including Bitcoin, since the beginning of 2025 is now shifting into reverse. According to macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets), the six-month upswing in Federal Reserve liquidity has ended, and a potentially destabilizing wave of debt issuance by the US Treasury is about to begin. In a post published on X late Sunday, Tomas warned: “ Federal Reserve Liquidity set to fall… The Fed liquidity upswing that began on January 1 2025 is now over.” Bitcoin Enters Danger Zone The catalyst behind this reversal is the recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase passed by Congress last week. That legislative decision gives the Treasury Department the green light to aggressively rebuild its cash balance at the Federal Reserve—known as the Treasury General Account (TGA)—which had been intentionally drained to inject liquidity into the system during the first half of the year. “The US Government had previously been draining the Treasury General Account (liquidity injection). But a new debt ceiling agreement was reached last week ($5 trillion raise). This means the Government will start to flood the market with new debt to ‘refill’ the TGA (liquidity drain),” Tomas wrote. He emphasized that the refill target is currently set at $850 billion, up from recent levels around $350 billion, implying roughly $500 billion in liquidity will be removed from the system in the coming months. The implications for Bitcoin are stark. Risk assets have historically benefited from rising dollar liquidity—particularly in the context of elevated ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and a weakening US dollar. But that backdrop is now shifting. As Tomas put it, “All else being equal, this TGA rebuild process should be bullish for the US dollar.” A strengthening dollar, when coupled with falling bank reserves, is generally a bearish environment for Bitcoin. The pressure on liquidity won’t necessarily come all at once, but the mechanics are clear. Treasury will issue large volumes of new short-term debt—primarily T-bills—to finance the TGA refill. This issuance will compete with other dollar-denominated assets for funding, draining cash out of banks and money markets. Tomas notes that this dynamic could be softened if money market funds rotate their cash out of the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, which still holds about $214 billion. “It’s possible that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could lower the target level, meaning less of a refill,” he adds. “I’d expect we may see a lot of T-bill issuance, which could tempt some of the remaining $214bn left in the Reverse Repo to leave the facility (liquidity injection) and lessen any negative impact of the TGA refill.” Still, even with some reallocation from RRP, Tomas expects the overall effect to reduce reserve balances—bank reserves as a percentage of GDP are likely to fall below 10%, he estimates. While this is not as dire as the 7% level reached in 2019 (which triggered the repo crisis), it represents a sharp tightening compared to the first half of this year. “There could be some funding stress around the end of September (end-of-quarter),” Tomas cautioned. Bitcoin’s performance has coincided with the exact window Tomas outlines as a liquidity upswing. As documented, Bitcoin’s price has closely tracked the direction of aggregate G5 central bank balance sheets and the level of US bank reserves. When those reserves shrink—especially in the face of stronger Treasury issuance and a rebounding dollar—Bitcoin has historically struggled to sustain upside momentum. This concern is compounded by Tomas’s warning that speculative short positioning against the dollar has reached extremes. “Back in January, I was shouting about a fall in the dollar. Now everybody and their mothers are bearish on the dollar, and positioning is massively short across the board. It’s time for, at the very least, an upward correction/consolidation for the US dollar, in my opinion.” Such a reversal in the dollar would mark a critical macro headwind for Bitcoin. The 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firmly negative. In environments where the dollar strengthens—especially when driven by tightening liquidity—Bitcoin has rarely outperformed. The next several weeks will be critical. If Treasury proceeds with aggressive issuance and market participants demand higher yields, liquidity could tighten faster than anticipated. While Tomas does leave open the possibility that Secretary Bessent may adjust the TGA target downward, the baseline scenario remains a $500 billion net liquidity drain—directly reversing the conditions that allowed Bitcoin to surge. At press time, BTC traded at $108,148.

Ethereum is approaching a pivotal moment as it pushes to reclaim the $2,600 level, aiming to break free from weeks of sideways action. After trading within a tight range since early May, ETH is now testing the upper boundary of its consolidation zone, a move that could mark the start of a new bullish phase for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. Market participants are closely watching this level, as a successful breakout above $2,600 would likely attract momentum buyers and confirm renewed strength across the altcoin sector. However, the breakout is far from guaranteed. If bulls fail to sustain this move, Ethereum could face renewed selling pressure, with price potentially revisiting lower support zones. According to Coinglass data, liquidity clusters are clearly defined at $2,800 and $2,350. These levels will likely act as magnets in the coming days, depending on how Ethereum responds to current resistance. A clean break toward $2,800 would confirm bullish intent and broader altcoin surges, while a rejection could reinforce bearish sentiment. Ethereum’s Next Move Could Ignite Altseason Altcoins remain nearly 50% below their all-time highs, but bullish momentum is quietly building. Ethereum, the leader of the altcoin market, has been consolidating in a well-defined range between $2,400 and $2,700 since early May. This prolonged sideways action has kept much of the altcoin sector in a state of indecision. Now, traders and analysts agree: Ethereum must break out to lead the next major move. Market analyst Ted Pillows identifies two key liquidity levels for ETH: $2,800 on the upside and $2,350 on the downside. These zones represent the most likely destinations for price in the short term, depending on which side of the range breaks first. If Ethereum pushes above $2,800 with strength, it would likely trigger renewed risk appetite and a broad-based altcoin rally. On the other hand, a breakdown below $2,350 could lead to deeper corrections across the board. So far, bulls have defended the $2,500 level well, and growing open interest suggests that investors are positioning for an expansion. A decisive breakout in either direction will resolve weeks of consolidation and determine the short-term trend. Until then, Ethereum remains the gatekeeper of altcoin momentum—its next move could define the path for the entire market. ETH Tests Resistance Amid Range-Bound Structure Ethereum is currently trading at $2,563, hovering just below the $2,600 mark, a level that has acted as short-term resistance throughout June and early July. As shown in the 12-hour chart, ETH has been trapped in a horizontal consolidation structure between $2,400 and $2,700, with multiple failed attempts to break either side convincingly. The price remains above the 50, 100, and 200 simple moving averages (SMAs), which is a positive signal for bulls. The 100 SMA at $2,532 and the 200 SMA at $2,206 have offered strong dynamic support during recent pullbacks, reinforcing the current uptrend structure. Volume remains moderate, suggesting that market participants are waiting for a clear breakout before entering with conviction. A decisive close above $2,600 would open the door for a move toward $2,800, where large liquidity clusters have been identified by Coinglass. However, failure to maintain this short-term momentum could push ETH back toward the $2,400 support zone. Bulls have defended this level several times, and a break below it would likely invalidate the bullish setup and increase the risk of a deeper correction. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Metals have seen a strong multi-year performance, largely driven by post-COVID currency depreciation. The widespread use of Quantitative Easing (QE) and balance sheet expansions by central banks put fiat currencies under pressure, giving precious metals a solid fundamental tailwind. In contrast, the 2022 global rate-hiking cycle helped restore some purchasing power to fiat currencies, temporarily capping gains in metals as tighter monetary policy reined in inflation expectations – but this effect has waned as Policy Rates have started to go down globally since their 2023 peaks. A comparable period unfolded between 2004 and 2011, when Gold rose from around $400 to a high of $1,880 per ounce, propelled by QE1 following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Gold has more than doubled its value since October 2022 lows and has dragged other precious metals upwards such as Platinum, Palladium or Silver. Silver followed a similar trajectory, rallying from $6 to an all-time high of $49.80, before retreating in the years that followed. This correction was in part driven by a supply response, as miners ramped up production in response to soaring prices. Read More: Australian dollar outlook as markets prepare for upcoming RBA rate decision close Silver 4H Chart July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver 4H Chart July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver has been consolidating in a $2 range from $35 to $37 particularly since the Israel-Iran war created newfound demand for safe-havens and Silver, despite not being the first asset for flight-to-safety, can still be considered as such. An interesting pattern can be in developments in the 4H Chart, as the selling from the weekly open just stopped at its 50 period MA, close to the middle of the range. A failure to regain the lower part of the range substantially raises the probability of an upside breakout. In the meantime, prices will have to at least hold this week's $36.15 lows. Levels to add on your charts: Support Levels: $36.40 MA 50 immediate support$35 to $35.50 last swing lows + 4H MA 200Resistance Levels: $37 to $37.50 (2012 highs)Potential Resistance $38 to $38.5 (Fibonacci extension)Potential Resistance + High of Weekly Channel $39 to $40 (1.618 Fib extension) Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

🛑 ESCALADA NAS GUERRAS COMERCIAIS: EUA AMEAÇAM NOVAS TARIFAS CONTRA PAÍSES DO BRICS E ALIADOS 📍 Por Igor Pereira – ExpertFX School | Análise Geopolítica e Macroeconômica 🇺🇸📦 Trump envia cartas notificando tarifas de até 40% a partir de 1º de agosto A Casa Branca intensificou drasticamente sua postura protecionista nesta segunda-feira (07), com o presidente Donald Trump notificando pelo menos seis países sobre a imposição de tarifas comerciais punitivas a partir de 1º de agosto de 2025. As cartas oficiais foram enviadas diretamente aos governos de: País Tarifa anunciada Observação 🇲🇾 Malásia 25% Parte da rota de transbordo da Ásia 🇰🇿 Cazaquistão 25% Fornecedor de metais e parceiro do BRICS 🇿🇦 África do Sul 30% Membro fundador do BRICS 🇱🇦 Laos 40% Apoio recente ao BRICS Pay 🇲🇲 Mianmar 40% Alvo estratégico na Ásia 🇻🇳 Vietnã 40% Envolvido em reexportação indireta da China ⚠️ ExpertFX: O que isso significa para o mercado global? 🧭 1. Ofensiva direta contra o BRICS Muitos dos países notificados são aliados comerciais ou membros do bloco BRICS. Isso reforça a narrativa recente de que os EUA estão usando tarifas como instrumento de coerção geoeconômica, e não apenas de proteção econômica. 💰 2. Risco inflacionário e disrupção de cadeias globais Tarifas de 25% a 40% sobre países com forte presença na produção de commodities, eletrônicos e têxteis aumentam os custos de importação, pressionando a inflação no varejo americano. A fragmentação nas cadeias de fornecimento globais tende a se agravar. 📉 3. Reações do mercado: DXY em queda, XAU/USD em alta Com o aumento da incerteza geopolítica e econômica: O dólar (DXY) perdeu força após os anúncios, testando níveis críticos de suporte técnico em 96,97. O ouro (XAU/USD) subiu para US$ 3.320, renovando máximas históricas com forte fluxo institucional. 🌐 4. Reforço da desdolarização Essas ações devem acelerar movimentos de desdolarização e alianças comerciais alternativas (ex: BRICS Pay, acordos bilaterais em moedas locais). Países como China, Índia e Rússia devem liderar uma resposta organizada. 📊 Impacto nos principais mercados Ativo Reação Esperada DXY Baixa (pressão sobre o dólar) XAU/USD (Ouro) Alta de longo prazo (hedge geopolítico preferido) Mercados emergentes Volatilidade e possível sell-off Commodities Alta em metais e alimentos 🔮 Perspectiva para o investidor Aumenta a relevância do ouro físico e ETFs de ouro no portfólio. Diminui atratividade do USD no curto prazo em favor de ativos reais. Cresce a incerteza regulatória e de compliance para exportadores globais. 📌 Conclusão: Trump dobrou a aposta em sua estratégia de “tarifas como política externa”, mirando diretamente parceiros estratégicos do BRICS. O movimento sinaliza uma nova fase nas guerras comerciais, com potencial de desdobramentos globais explosivos nas próximas semanas. 📥 Continue acompanhando atualizações em tempo real na ExpertFX School - faça seu cadastro no site e siga os tópicos que você mais gostar para notificações via e-mail! 📊 Igor Pereira – Analista Membro Wall Street NYSE

📰 Metade dos bancos centrais vê risco de reestruturação da dívida dos EUA 📍 Por Igor Pereira – Analista da ExpertFX School ❗️🇺🇸 UBS: 50% dos bancos centrais consideram "plausível" um default ou reestruturação da dívida americana Um dado alarmante foi revelado nesta segunda-feira (07) no relatório anual do UBS sobre reservas internacionais, que ouviu representantes de quase 40 bancos centrais ao redor do mundo. Segundo o levantamento: Essa percepção é sem precedentes e marca uma mudança drástica na confiança global no Tesouro dos EUA, tradicionalmente visto como o ativo mais seguro do mundo. 🧠 Análise Especial ExpertFX School: O que isso significa para o sistema financeiro global? Queda de confiança nos Treasuries: A dívida dos EUA ultrapassou US$ 38 trilhões em 2025, com projeção de seguir crescendo descontroladamente. O temor de que o sistema político americano não consiga conter os déficits está levando bancos centrais a buscar alternativas ao dólar. Aceleração da desdolarização: O aumento da compra de ouro por bancos centrais (com destaque para China, Polônia e Turquia) pode ser interpretação prática dessa desconfiança. Cresce o uso de CBDCs (moedas digitais de bancos centrais) e sistemas alternativos de liquidação como o BRICS Pay. Risco sistêmico nos mercados: Um cenário de reestruturação da dívida dos EUA seria um evento cataclísmico para os mercados globais, maior até do que o colapso de 2008. Investidores institucionais correriam para ativos reais: ouro, commodities e imóveis físicos. O dólar (DXY) sofreria forte pressão de venda, e o sistema financeiro ocidental poderia perder hegemonia. 📊 Indicadores que reforçam a tendência: Indicador Valor Atual Interpretação Dívida dos EUA +US$ 38 trilhões Nível recorde histórico 📈 Compra de ouro por BCs +20t em maio China acumula mais que o declarado DXY (Índice do Dólar) 96.97 Testando suporte técnico crítico XAU/USD (Ouro) US$ 3.320 Proteção contra inflação 🏆 🔮 O que esperar nos próximos trimestres? Pressão crescente sobre o Tesouro Americano para cortar gastos ou aumentar impostos. A Fed poderá ter que monetizar ainda mais a dívida, pressionando a inflação e enfraquecendo o dólar. Aumento de compras de ouro, yuan e ativos alternativos por bancos centrais. Discussão cada vez mais séria sobre um sistema financeiro multipolar, com menos dependência do dólar. 📌 Conclusão: O alerta dado pelos bancos centrais é claro: o modelo fiscal dos EUA está em xeque. Com o aumento da dívida e polarização política, a credibilidade do sistema financeiro americano está sob risco estrutural. O ouro, mais uma vez, surge como alternativa de confiança internacional. 📥 Acompanhe análises exclusivas no site ExpertFX School - faça seu cadastro no site e siga os tópicos que você gostar para notificações via e-mail! 📊 Igor Pereira — Analista de Mercado Financeiro | Membro Wall Street NYSE

📰 Conflito interno sobre juros nos EUA – Assessores de Trump pressionam Fed 📍Por Igor Pereira – Analista da ExpertFX School Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE ❗️🇺🇸 Navarro pressiona Fed a cortar juros imediatamente Peter Navarro, assessor de comércio da Casa Branca e atualmente conselheiro econômico informal do presidente Donald Trump, fez declarações fortes nesta segunda-feira (07) contra a postura atual do Federal Reserve (Fed), liderado por Jerome Powell. 📌 Segundo Navarro: 🧠 Leitura estratégica ExpertFX School: Pressão política direta sobre o Fed: A Casa Branca (ou sua ala mais próxima) quer cortes imediatos nos juros. Com inflação em queda e risco de recessão se elevando, cresce o lobby pró-afrouxamento monetário. Risco à independência institucional do Fed: Caso Powell resista à pressão, pode se agravar a tensão institucional. Se ceder, o mercado entenderá que a política monetária dos EUA está sendo politizada, o que pode afetar a credibilidade do dólar. Impacto no mercado financeiro: Expectativas de corte antecipado nas taxas de juros podem: Desvalorizar o Dólar (DXY) ainda mais. Impulsionar o ouro (XAU/USD) para novas máximas (já em US$ 3.320). Reforçar ativos de risco como S&P 500 e criptomoedas no curto prazo. 📊 Cenário atual: Indicador Valor Atual Tendência DXY (Índice Dólar) 96.97 Pressão de baixa 📉 XAU/USD (Ouro) US$ 3.320 Forte alta 📈 EUR/USD 1.1778 Tendência de valorização do euro USD/JPY 144.30 Estável BTC/USD US$ 109.011 Alta sustentada, fluxo institucional 🔮 O que esperar nos próximos dias? Powell poderá ser forçado a se pronunciar publicamente para defender sua política. O mercado precificará aumento da probabilidade de corte de juros já no 3º trimestre. A inflação pode se tornar variável secundária, com foco no crescimento e no mercado de trabalho. Ouro e ativos não dolarizados seguem como favoritos para proteção e performance. 📥 Receba nossas atualizações macro diretamente, faça seu cadastro no site ExpertFX School e siga os tópicos que você gostar.

📰 Trump recua parcialmente sobre tarifas contra BRICS 📍Por Igor Pereira – Analista da ExpertFX School 🇺🇸🌐 Trump recua parcialmente sobre tarifas contra BRICS Segundo agências de notícias (RTRS), o presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump não implementará imediatamente a tarifa adicional de 10% sobre países que não aderirem à agenda antiamericana dos BRICS. Embora Trump tenha ameaçado tarifas generalizadas para qualquer nação que colabore economicamente com o bloco liderado por China, Rússia, Índia, Brasil e África do Sul, o comunicado de hoje sugere uma abordagem mais gradual, sinalizando que o envio de “cartas tarifárias” (previsto para 9 de julho) poderá ocorrer em fases, e com base em alinhamento diplomático e comercial de cada país. 🔎 Impacto de curto prazo: Alívio nos mercados emergentes e moedas como o real brasileiro e o rand sul-africano. Volatilidade moderada nos pares do dólar com BRICS deve continuar, mas com menor intensidade. Cautela institucional permanece sobre cadeias de suprimento. ❗️🇺🇸 Perspectiva de juros zero volta ao radar do Fed Segundo documento conjunto dos Fed de Nova York e San Francisco, publicado nesta segunda-feira, existe “perspectiva real” de que a taxa básica volte a níveis próximos de zero nos próximos anos, apesar do patamar elevado atual. 📌 Tradução macro: O Fed estuda caminhos de afrouxamento monetário como medida de emergência futura, sinalizando que o atual ciclo de alta pode não durar até 2026, especialmente se a desaceleração econômica se aprofundar. A possibilidade de novos cortes em 2025-2026 pode reacender: Rallys no ouro (XAU/USD). Apetite por ativos de risco nos EUA (ações, criptomoedas). Nova rodada de desvalorização do dólar (DXY) no médio prazo. ❗️🇪🇺 União Europeia não receberá carta tarifária de Trump — por ora Fontes internas da UE informaram à Reuters que a União Europeia não receberá “carta-tarifa” de Trump nesta primeira rodada de retaliações comerciais. 🎯 Isso representa: Alívio para exportadores europeus (automóveis, bens de luxo, tecnologia). Potencial reforço no euro (EUR/USD) no curtíssimo prazo. Abertura para uma reaproximação entre EUA e UE, visando enfraquecer a coesão dos BRICS em negociações multilaterais. 📊 Conclusão & O que esperar dos mercados 1. Dólar (DXY): Testa zona crítica em 96.97, mas possível recuo da guerra tarifária pode estagnar a queda. Contudo, expectativas dovish do Fed podem pesar contra o dólar nos próximos trimestres. 2. Ouro (XAU/USD): Com cotação atual em US$ 3.320, o metal permanece como principal beneficiário do ambiente: Baixos juros futuros Incerteza geopolítica Desdolarização via BRICS 3. Renda variável e ações globais: Menor risco tarifário sobre UE e possível reversão monetária do Fed animam investidores — mas atenção: o risco de recessão nos EUA persiste, e ainda estamos longe de acordos definitivos. 📲 Siga ExpertFXSchool para alertas diários e cobertura macro de alta precisão.