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Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Extends Recovery Most Read: USD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie? Japanese stocks bounced back strongly on Wednesday, with the benchmark Nikkei index recovering from its biggest one-day loss since April, as investors bought back into the technology sector. The Nikkei 225 Index surged 1.8% to close at 47,672.67, making up for a significant part of its 2.6% drop from the previous session. The broader Topix index also climbed 1.6%. Leading the recovery were major tech stocks that had been hit hard by worries over the China-U.S. trade dispute. SoftBank Group, a key investor in chips and AI, rose 5.1%, while chip equipment maker Advantest gained 2.2%. In related news, the European Union is reportedly considering a bold plan to require Chinese companies to share their technology with European firms in exchange for local market access. Domestically, there is ongoing political uncertainty in Japan, with leaders of the main opposition parties meeting on Wednesday to discuss uniting behind a single candidate for the position of Prime Minister. Chinese CPI Underwhelms China's consumer prices continued to fall in September 2025, recording a year-over-year drop of 0.3%, which was slightly less severe than the previous month but worse than what analysts had expected. The main reason for the overall price decline was a steep drop in food prices, which fell at their fastest rate since January 2024. This was largely driven by an oversupply of pork, lower production costs, and weak consumer demand ahead of the Golden Week holidays. In contrast to food, prices for goods and services excluding food and energy (known as core inflation) actually rose by 1.0% year-over-year. This was the highest core inflation reading in 19 months, suggesting that underlying consumer demand is slowly starting to pick up, possibly due to government incentives encouraging people to trade in old consumer goods. Categories like healthcare and clothing saw price increases, and the cost of transportation fell at a slower pace than before. On a month-to-month basis, prices barely moved, increasing just 0.1%. Even though the current economic data suggests the central bank of China (People's Bank of China) should lower interest rates or take other steps to boost the economy (monetary easing), it might decide to wait. The bank could be saving those options in case the planned meeting between President Xi and President Trump does not go well, allowing them to use the easing measures as an emergency economic boost afterward. European Session - Luxury Sector Boosts European Stocks European stock markets climbed on Wednesday, largely driven by a massive rally in luxury brands after French giant LVMH delivered surprisingly positive sales results, calming fears about the health of major companies amidst global trade and growth concerns. Luxury group LVMH saw its shares soar over 12%, heading for their best daily performance in almost two years after reporting better-than-expected sales in the third quarter, fueled by stronger demand in China. This good news immediately boosted other luxury stocks, with companies like Hermes and Richemont seeing gains between 2.7% and 7.2%. This surge caused the French stock index to jump 2.5%, while the broader STOXX 600 index for all of Europe rose 0.8%. Adding to the positive mood, chip-equipment supplier ASML rose 3.5% after its forecasts for quarterly orders and sales beat market expectations. However, not all stocks did well: German copper producer Aurubis fell 7.1% because its majority owner, Salzgitter, launched a large bond that can be exchanged for Aurubis shares, which often puts downward pressure on a stock's price. On the FX front, The US dollar remained mostly unchanged early on Wednesday, stabilizing after a slight drop in the previous session. The dollar was steady against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, holding its value after losing ground to both currencies on Tuesday. The euro also held firm at 1.1606 following its own small gain yesterday. Among commodity-linked currencies, the Australian dollar ticked up slightly by 0.1%, attempting to recover after hitting its lowest point since late August on Tuesday. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar continued its slight decline, easing another 0.1% after falling to a six-month low yesterday. Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped slightly on Wednesday, continuing a downward trend, as worries about too much supply in the global market overshadowed demand concerns tied to the US-China trade conflict. The main pressure came from a warning issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA stated that the global oil market could see a large supply surplus—as much as 4 million bpd next year. This is a bigger excess than previously expected, caused by oil-producing nations (OPEC+ and rivals) increasing their output while global demand remains slow. Both major oil benchmarks, Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), saw small dips, with Brent trading at $62.30 per barrel. Both contracts had already hit five-month lows in the previous trading session. Gold prices surged again on Wednesday, climbing to a new all-time high just above the $4,200 per ounce mark. Renewed concerns about the trade conflict between the U.S. and China has given haven demand a fresh boost. For more on the movement of Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the Day Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet before market participants' attention turns to US Earnings data and a host of Central Bank speakers who will take the spotlight. Lastly, attention will be on the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book," a key report that gathers informal information on the US economy across its regions, because it strongly influences the Fed's decisions on interest rates. The Beige Book may carry more weight at the moment given the US government shutdown and lack of data available, especially labor data. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 did rise toward the resistance level around 9500. However, the index failed to break higher and is experiencing a pullback this morning. The bullish structure will remain intact as long as the FTSE 100 is able to hold above the swing low at 9412 and the 100-day MA resting at 9406. A hold above this key confluence zone could be the start of the next leg higher. A break of this zone though open up the Index to further downside. Immediate resistance rests around the 9500 handle before the swing high at 9590 comes into focus. On the downside, support rests at 9406 before the 9357 and 9311 handles become areas of interest. FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, October 15. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin has faced another retrace in the past day that has brought its price to the short-term holder cost basis, a level that has acted as support thus far. Bitcoin Is Making Yet Another Retest Of The STH Realized Price As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, Bitcoin could be at the fourth step of the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price cycle. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that measures the average cost basis of the investors on the BTC network. When the value of this metric is greater than the spot price, it means the overall market is carrying a net unrealized loss. On the other hand, it being below BTC’s value suggests the average holder is in the green. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a specific segment of investors is of interest: the STHs. These are the BTC holders who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This group is considered to include the fickle-minded bunch of the sector, prone to making panic moves during volatile periods. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price of the STHs over the last couple of months: As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin has made a few retests of the STH Realized Price during the last few weeks and each time, the level has held so far. The reason behind the indicator acting as support lies in how investor psychology tends to work. As the analyst has broken down in the chart, STHs typically follow a five-step cycle during bullish phases. The first three steps involve some degree of buying from the group upon retests of their cost basis from above. These holders consider the retraces to their break-even level as dip-buying opportunities. By the fourth retest, however, they can become exhausted, and may decide to stop their accumulation. This is when the level stops providing support to the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s visible that the latest retrace in Bitcoin has once again brought its value near the STH Realized Price. Given that this is the fourth retest, Maartunn has noted that this could potentially be the fourth step in the STH cycle. It will now be interesting to see how the asset’s price develops in the coming days. A sustained move below the level may confirm a breakdown of support and lead to the fifth and final step of the STH cycle, where these investors start looking at their break-even level as an opportunity to exit the market instead, thus turning what was once support into resistance. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped to $110,000 earlier in the day, but the coin has since bounced back to $113,000.

Layer-1 (L1) blockchain Monad has recently opened a portal for users to claim the airdrop for its native MON token, with the claiming period set to end on November 3. However, the announcement has sparked significant criticism within the crypto community. Many users, particularly those on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), have voiced concerns that the criteria for eligibility have not aligned with the developments, leaving several traders, including those from Hyperliquid (HYPE), ineligible for the airdrop. Hyperliquid And HypurrNFT Users Left In The Lurch At the time of the announcement, it was stated that users of Hyperliquid, Phantom perps, and holders of HypurrNFT would be eligible to receive the MON airdrop. Despite this, reports indicate that very few HypurrNFT holders qualify, with some users claiming that their substantial trading volumes—over 200 million on perps—did not meet the eligibility requirements. These frustrations have led to comments such as, “this airdrop is a joke,” highlighting the disconnect between the expectations set by Monad and the reality faced by its community. According to the outlined criteria, Monad plans to distribute tokens to over 235,500 users, including active community members who have consistently supported the project on social media and engaged in various initiatives. The criteria also encompass traders with high trading volumes on decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid, long-term holders of popular NFTs (such as CryptoPunks and Pudgy Penguins), participants in DAO voting on Ethereum-based platforms, contributors to ecosystem development through various roles, and developers actively creating products on Monad and participating in project hackathons. Critics Question Monad’s Commitment To Users Critics, including DeFi researcher Coin Metrika, have sharply criticized Monad’s airdrop strategy. Metrika pointed out that the published eligibility criteria shocked many within the crypto community, revealing that only 5,500 wallets are considered eligible—representing just 0.74% of Monad’s Discord users. Meanwhile, the project is distributing airdrops to 225,000 addresses outside of its community, many of whom may not even be aware of Monad or the impending claim deadline. In a sarcastic commentary, Coin Metrika summarized the situation, stating: If you haven’t figured it out yet, here’s a summary of #MonadAirdrop criteria: You have roles in Discord that are difficult to obtain—thank you, we’re not interested in you because you’re poor! You participated in our testnet—thank you for helping us test the product for free, which we sold to investors for a lot of money. Dressed up in clown costumes and shot viral videos to promote the @monad brand—thank you, we laughed out loud at you. You have money that you’ve shown on the blockchain—let’s be friends, here’s your airdrop! This highlights the increasing dissatisfaction within the Hyperliquid, HypurrNFT and wider crypto communities regarding how Monad has handled its airdrop initiative, raising questions about its commitment to its users. At the time of writing, HYPE trades at $39, recording losses of 13% over the past seven days. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Yesterday, US stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 declined by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.76%. The industrial Dow Jones rose by 0.44%. Equity indices advanced and the dollar weakened as optimism around a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve revived risk appetite and outweighed renewed US-China trade tensions. Markets recovered much of the previous week's losses as traders focused on the prospect of a more dovish monetary policy signaled by the Fed, while largely ignoring continued reports of difficulties in US-China trade negotiations. A growing conviction of an inevitable Fed rate cut exerted pressure on US Treasury yields, making the dollar less attractive to investors. This, in turn, supported asset prices denominated in other currencies and triggered a rally in equity markets. However, lingering uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations continues to have a dampening effect on investor sentiment. Further escalation of the trade war could offset the positive impact of a Fed rate cut and once again redirect capital into safe-haven assets such as gold and Treasuries. Asian stocks jumped 1.9%, marking the largest intraday gain in over two months, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's concerns about labor market weakness bolstered expectations of a rate cut in October. The yield on two-year US Treasury notes remained near its lowest levels since 2022. Gold reached a new peak. Powell signaled that the US central bank intends to cut interest rates by another quarter point at the end of this month, despite the government shutdown significantly reducing the Fed's capacity to forecast economic trends. Swap contracts are pricing in a total rate cut of approximately 1.25 percentage points by the end of next year, compared to the current range of 4-4.25%. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jameson Greer stated that escalating tensions with China over export controls are expected to ease following negotiations between officials from both nations. Trump also expressed cautious optimism about the possibility of a positive outcome. "We have a fair relationship with China, and I think it'll be fine. And if it's not, that's okay too," Trump told reporters Tuesday at the White House. "We're taking a lot of hits, but we've made great progress." As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the key objective for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,672. This would support further price appreciation and open the path toward a push to the next level at $6,682. No less important for bulls will be maintaining control above the $6,697 mark, which would strengthen buyer positioning. In the event of a downside move amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,660. A break below this level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,648 and open the way to $6,638. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[XPD/USD] – [Wednesday, October 15, 2025] With the condition of technical indicators which showing a bullish momentum for XPD/USD, such as both EMAs forming a Golden Cross and the RSI positioned in the Neutral-Bullish zone. This suggests that XPD/USD has the potential to strengthen today. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 1649.30 2. Resistance. 1 : 1605.71 3. Pivot : 1539.32 4. Support. 1 : 1495.73 5. Support. 2 : 1429.34 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If Palladium strengthens above 1539.32, it may continue its rally toward 1605.71. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1605.71 is successfully broken, there is potential for XPD/USD to test the 1649.30 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if XPD/USD falls and closes below 1429.34. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 1545.45 EMA(200): 1486.42 RSI(14) : 57.55 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the only economic release from the United States is the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Platinum] – [Wednesday, October 15, 2025] Even though the intersection of the Golden Cross of the two EMA(50) & (200) is relatively narrow, but with the RSI in the Neutral-Bullish zone suggests that buyers are still dominant in Platinum. Key Levels: Level-Level Kunci 1. Resistance. 2 : 1743.0 2. Resistance. 1 : 1704.0 3. Pivot : 1672.5 4. Support. 1 : 1633.5 5. Support. 2 : 1602.0 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If Platinum breaks and closes above 1704.0, it may move to test 1743.0. Momentum Extension Bias: If Platinum successfully breaks and closes above 1743.0, there is potential for it to reach 1774.5. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if Platinum falls and closes below 1602.0. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 1674.9 EMA(200): 1670.1 RSI(14) : 55.03 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the only economic release from the United States is the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The storm in the U.S. equity market shows no signs of calming. The S&P 500 opened with a gap for the second consecutive trading session—this time to the downside—following news of an escalation in the trade conflict. Beijing effectively barred Chinese companies from doing business with the U.S. subsidiary of South Korean shipbuilding giant Hanwha Ocean. Yet upbeat corporate earnings and dovish comments from Jerome Powell helped the broad market index ride the volatility rollercoaster and rebound. Financial results from major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, exceeded expectations, while BlackRock announced that assets under management surpassed $13 trillion for the first time in history. According to FactSet, third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise by 8%. The actual figures could come closer to 13%. Historically, earnings have beaten estimates in three out of every four quarters, which has been a strong support for the U.S. stock market. On the other hand, the S&P 500 bull market has now stretched into its fourth year, and the index hasn't experienced at least a 5% pullback in 97 trading sessions. The long-term average for such streaks is just 59 days. This raises the question: Is it time for a correction? Chart: S&P 500 Streaks Without 5% Drawdowns A return of trade war tensions could be the trigger. Beijing is playing hardball—it seems to have found Donald Trump's Achilles' heel: his unwillingness to see stock indices decline. The president views them as a personal success metric. After the market closed, he announced 100% tariffs, only to reassure the public on social media shortly afterward with posts like "Everything will be fine with China" and "The United States doesn't want to hurt China; we want to help!" Markets react quickly to messages from the White House and continue to buy S&P 500 dips under the TACO strategy. But China may well believe that Trump will eventually yield. If not, the standoff could escalate into a full-blown trade war, triggering a meaningful correction in the S&P 500 and weighing down both the U.S. and global economies. The Fed would then be left with no choice but to cut rates aggressively. Jerome Powell gave no concrete indication that another round of monetary easing would occur in October. However, he did note that a continued slowdown in job growth would eventually lead to higher unemployment. Despite another round of blows traded between Beijing and Washington, the S&P 500 managed to edge upward, though it retreated slightly as the trade tension news settled. China halted soybean purchases from the U.S., and in return, the U.S. will stop buying vegetable oil from Chinese exporters. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 on the daily chart has twice tested an inside bar pattern. Bulls have yet to close a session above fair value at the 6655 level. A breakout above the large-bar high at 6680 would be a buying signal. On the other hand, a failure to reclaim the 6655 resistance would increase the likelihood of a correction and raise the case for entering short positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) tries to recover from its weekend sell-off that saw it almost crash to $100,000, some crypto analysts think that the BTC market likely “lost its pulse.” As a result, the leading cryptocurrency may be on the cusp of losing its bullish momentum. Bitcoin At The Risk Of Losing Momentum? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor TeddyVision, Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has been trending lower, confirming that inter-exchange activity is slowly fading. For the uninitiated, the IFP measures liquidity as it moves between crypto exchanges. In essence, it can be considered a proxy to determine how active arbitrage and market-making really are. To explain, arbitrage refers to the practice of buying an asset for a lower price on one platform and selling it at a higher price on another, thus benefiting from the price differential. In simple terms, arbitrage refers to profiting from inefficiencies. When such inefficiencies exist in the market and are actually executable, liquidity tends to start moving fast. At the same time, trading bots begin shuttling funds across platforms, market spreads begin to realign again, and the market starts to feel “alive.” This is when the IFP rises. Although there is greater market volatility due to a rising IFP, it is generally considered healthy for the market as it confirms that BTC is likely experiencing a bullish momentum. However, since the IFP reading has turned lower in recent weeks, traders are finding it harder to arbitrage price discrepancies even though they might still be appearing. TeddyVision noted: Price discrepancies still appear, but they’re harder to arbitrage – liquidity is thinner, latency is higher, and risk-adjusted opportunities are drying up. Traders find fewer setups worth taking, and less capital circulates between venues. The analyst emphasized that liquidity is not leaving the market, it is just not circulating like earlier. While such a slowdown in liquidity does not crash the market, it does drain the energy out of it. To conclude, the market is not collapsing, it is just “too efficient” at the moment for traders to find any meaningful arbitrage opportunities that they can benefit from. When inefficiencies leave the market, the underlying asset is likely at risk of losing its momentum. A Healthy Correction For BTC? The market crash on October 9 led to the largest single-day liquidation ever in the history of the crypto industry, totalling a mammoth $19 billion. While the overall optimism has receded, some analysts are still hopeful of a quick sentiment turnaround. Fellow crypto analyst EtherNasyonaL stated that BTC has maintained its upward trajectory despite the recent market crash, and that a move to a new all-time high (ATH) may be on the horizon. At press time, BTC trades at $111,731, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours.

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese YenThe 151.89 level test occurred when the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the U.S. dollar, which resulted in a 25-pip drop in the pair. The Japanese yen resumed its upward movement against the dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced plans for a 25-basis-point rate cut. His statement acted as a catalyst for currency markets, triggering a reassessment of risk and outlooks for both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Investors shifted their focus back to the yen—a traditional safe-haven currency. Despite the release of weak industrial production data in Japan, the yen continued to strengthen against the dollar. In the medium term, the future direction of the pair will depend on multiple factors, including policy decisions from both the Fed and the Bank of Japan, geopolitical developments, and global economic conditions. However, the course toward yen strength is likely to hold for now. As for today's intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair reaches the 151.30 entry level (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 151.80 (thicker green line). Around 151.80, I plan to exit long positions and enter short positions on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from that level. It is best to return to long trades on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair tests the 150.97 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the downside potential and could lead to an upward reversal, with expected growth toward 151.30 and 151.80. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 150.97 (thin red line on the chart), which may lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be the 150.43 level (thicker red line), where I plan to exit short positions and consider direct long entries on a bounce, targeting a 20–25 pip reversal. It is optimal to sell from as high a level as possible. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 151.30 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would cap the pair's upside potential and could lead to a downward reversal, with anticipated movement toward 150.97 and 150.43. Chart NotesThin green line: Entry level for buy positionsThick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long positionThin red line: Entry level for sell positionsThick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short positionMACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timingImportant for Beginners Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place. And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3284 level coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's bullish potential. The second test of this level occurred while MACD was in the overbought zone, triggering the implementation of Sell Scenario No. 2. However, the anticipated decline in the pair did not materialize. The pound surged sharply on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the U.S. central bank plans to lower the key interest rate by 0.25% at the end of the month. The market reacted instantly with widespread buying of the British currency, as investors interpreted Powell's comments as a signal of U.S. economic weakness and, consequently, decreased attractiveness of the dollar. His announcement came as a surprise to many analysts who had expected a more cautious Fed stance, especially given the absence of new U.S. labor market data. Powell justified the need to cut rates based on continued risks tied to economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and fears of a rising unemployment rate. No economic data is scheduled for release from the UK today. However, speeches are expected from Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England responsible for markets and banking, and Sarah Breeden, a member of the Financial Policy Committee. Sir David's speech is of particular interest. He is expected to provide an updated assessment of the health of the UK banking system and detail the BoE's efforts to support financial stability. Sarah Breeden, representing the Financial Policy Committee, will likely focus on broader macroeconomic threats. Her comments on the state of the economy and inflation outlook will be closely studied, as the committee plays a key role in formulating the UK's macroprudential policy. As for today's intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point at 1.3367 (thin green line on the chart) is reached, with a target at 1.3416 (thick green line). Around 1.3416, I will close long positions and consider opening short positions on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips. This buying strategy should only be applied if the BoE assumes a hawkish tone. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3342 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside and may lead to a reversal upward. A price move toward 1.3367 and 1.3416 should be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today if the market breaks below 1.3342 (thin red line on the chart), triggering a quick drop. The primary target would be 1.3304 (thick red line). I plan to exit short positions there and consider immediate long entries on a bounce from the level, with an expected pullback of 20–25 pips. Pound sellers are likely to trade cautiously. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3367 level while MACD is in the overbought zone. This would signal limited upside potential and may lead to a downward reversal toward 1.3342 and 1.3304. Chart NotesThin green line: Entry level for buy positionsThick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long positionThin red line: Entry level for sell positionsThick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short positionMACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timingImportant for Beginners Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place. And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Trading Advice for the EuroThe test of the 1.1565 price level occurred when the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair climbed toward the target level at 1.1599. Following comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating a planned 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the month, the U.S. dollar experienced a sharp decline. The announcement triggered a broad sell-off in the greenback across global markets, as investors reassessed their expectations for future Fed policy. Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy remains stable but noted that risks related to the labor market call for vigilance and may warrant further easing. This morning, market participants await the French Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Eurozone industrial production data for August. The French CPI, a key measure of inflation, will show how effectively the country is managing price growth. Readings above forecasts may signal stronger inflationary pressure, reinforcing the ECB's cautious policy stance. The Eurozone's industrial production data will also be important, as it reflects the health of the manufacturing sector—a key component of economic growth. A decline may suggest growth is slowing and could put pressure on the euro. For today's intraday strategy, I will focus on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches 1.1630 (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1663. Upon reaching 1.1663 (thick green line), I will exit the market and consider selling the euro on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from the entry point. A long position is justified only if the incoming data is positive. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1615 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and could lead to an upward reversal toward the 1.1630 and 1.1663 targets. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the euro if the price reaches 1.1615 (thin red line on the chart), aiming for a decline toward 1.1588. At that level (thick red line), I will exit the short position and potentially buy on a bounce, expecting a 20–25 pip rebound. Market pressure on the pair is unlikely to persist today. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1630 level (buy entry level) and the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and could result in a reversal down to 1.1615 and possibly 1.1588. Chart NotesThin green line: Entry level for buy positionsThick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long positionThin red line: Entry level for sell positionsThick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short positionMACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timingImportant for Beginners Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place. And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. dollar collapsed against the euro, pound, and other assets following yesterday's interview with Jerome Powell. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, indicated that the U.S. central bank intends to lower the key interest rate by another 25 basis points, likely as early as the end of October. This statement served as a trigger for widespread dollar selling across global markets, as investors adjusted their expectations for future monetary policy easing. Powell noted that the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, but risks related to slowing employment growth and ongoing trade tensions require caution and may justify further policy accommodation. According to him, a 25-basis-point rate cut is intended to support economic growth. In the first half of the day, market participants will be watching the release of the French Consumer Price Index and Eurozone industrial production data for August. The European Central Bank will carefully analyze these reports to gauge inflation pressure and the trajectory of regional economic growth. France's Consumer Price Index, a key inflation metric, will show how effectively the country is managing rising prices. Higher-than-expected figures could signal accelerating inflation, although many economists are forecasting a decline in price pressure. Industrial production data for the Eurozone is also important. It reflects the health of the manufacturing sector, which is a key driver of economic growth. A decline in production could suggest an economic slowdown, potentially prompting the ECB to consider renewed stimulus measures. As for the pound, no UK economic reports are scheduled for today. However, speeches are expected from Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking at the Bank of England, and Sarah Breeden, member of the Financial Policy Committee. Ramsden's remarks will be particularly important in the context of current market volatility and ongoing inflation-related concerns. He is expected to give an update on the UK banking sector, credit risks, and the BoE's actions to maintain financial stability. Sarah Breeden will likely focus on broader macroeconomic risks. If incoming data aligns with economists' forecasts, it is best to apply a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, a Momentum strategy is more appropriate. Momentum Strategy (Breakout-Based):EUR/USDBuy on a breakout above 1.1627 with targets at 1.1661 and 1.1691Sell on a breakout below 1.1600 with targets at 1.1575 and 1.1545GBP/USDBuy on a breakout above 1.3360 with targets at 1.3390 and 1.3424Sell on a breakout below 1.3325 with targets at 1.3290 and 1.3265USD/JPYBuy on a breakout above 151.35 with targets at 151.75 and 152.10Sell on a breakout below 151.00 with targets at 150.65 and 150.35Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal-Based): EUR/USDLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1643, on a return below this levelLook for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1605, on a return to this level GBP/USDLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3371, on a return below this levelLook for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3319, on a return to this level AUD/USDLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6535, on a return below this levelLook for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6495, on a return to this level USD/CADLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.4050, on a return below this levelLook for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.4024, on a return to this levelThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Key takeaways The Hang Seng Index remains in a medium-term uptrend, despite a recent 9% pullback triggered by renewed US-China trade tensions.China’s core CPI rose to a 19-month high of 1% in September 2025, easing deflation fears and boosting market confidence.Technical indicators show bullish momentum, with key short-term support at 25,140 and upside resistance near 27,500.A sustained yuan appreciation continues to underpin Hong Kong’s equity market recovery. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Bullish consolidation above 26,200 on China housing recovery”, published on 15 September 2025. The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have staged the expected bullish movement and rallied by 4.25% from 15 September 2025, surpassing the 26,940 resistance highlighted in our previous report, and hit an intraday high of 27,401 on 2 October 2025 (just whisker away from a major resistance of 27,500). Thereafter, the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index tumbled by 9% (high to low) from 2 October 2025 to print an intraday low of 24,918 on Friday, 10 October 2025, due to renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Let’s now examine the key macro factors that are likely to support the continuation of the medium-term bullish trends in the China and Hong Kong stock markets since April 2025 (ex-post US “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement). China's core CPI continues to recover, reducing the risk of a deflationary spiral Fig. 1: China CPI, Core CPI & PPI as of Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) China’s headline CPI prices dropped by 0.3% y/y in September 2025, steeper than the consensus estimates of a 0.1% decline but slightly less than a 0.4% drop in August 2025. However, China’s core CPI inflation rate (stripping out food and energy) has continued to increase; it rose by 1% year-over-year (y/y) in September 2025, from 0.9% in August 2025, marking the highest reading in 19 months (see Fig. 1). Additionally, the deceleration in China’s producer prices (PPI) has begun to slow, as they fell 2.3% year-over-year (y/y) in September 2025, easing from a 2.9% drop in August 2025, in line with consensus estimates, marking the mildest contraction since February 2025. These latest inflationary data prints have reduced the risk of a deflationary spiral in the Chinese economy; in turn, this may see an uptick in consumer confidence in Q4 2025, which can trigger a positive feedback loop back into the China and Hong Kong stock markets. Now, let's turn our attention to decipher the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory, key levels, and elements to watch on the Hang Kong 33 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective. Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 15 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index medium-term & major trends as of 15 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bullish reversal at gap support Tuesday, 14 October 2025’s minor corrective decline of 2.9% (high to low) has stalled and reversed right at the gap support formed at the start of Monday’s 13 October 2025 Asia session. Bullish bias above 25,140 key short-term pivotal support and a clearance above the 25,860/26,060 (upside trigger level) sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 26,935 before a test on the 27,500 major resistance (see Fig. 2). Key elements The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has staged a bullish momentum breakout condition on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, US session (see Fig. 2).The major uptrend phase of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has been in place since 22 January 2024 low remaining intact, supported by a steady appreciation of the offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar (see Fig. 3)The major resistance of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index stands at 27,860, defined by the major descending trendline from the 29 January 2018 all-time high, and the upper boundary of a major ascending channel from the 22 January 2024 low.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 25,140 key short-term support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index for the continuation of the corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 24,820 and 24,260. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After beginning the week above the critical $115,000 mark, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market initially showed signs of recovery. However, BTC has resumed its downward trajectory, experiencing a 4% decline over the past 24 hours. This downturn has had a cascading effect on other altcoins, particularly Ethereum (ETH) and XRP. BTC, ETH, XRP’s Plunge Explained With the Bitcoin drop, Ethereum recorded a 5% drop, once again losing the pivotal $4,000 support level, while XRP has suffered even greater losses, plummeting by 7% during the same timeframe. This decline has pushed XRP closer to $2.40 as of Tuesday, highlighting the volatility affecting altcoins in the current market environment. According to Bloomberg, this recent Bitcoin and crypto slide can be attributed to geopolitical tensions, specifically China’s imposition of restrictions on the American units of Hanwha Ocean Co., one of South Korea’s largest shipbuilders. This action is seen as a retaliatory measure against US sanctions targeting the Chinese shipping sector. Bitcoin and the crypto market were already reeling from a brutal selloff that began on October 10, which resulted in approximately $19 billion worth of leveraged positions being liquidated. This selloff, which saw the Bitcoin price drop toward $102,000 last Friday, was triggered by US President Donald Trump’s threats of increased tariffs on China in response to new export controls. Three Scenarios For Bitcoin Market analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s performance, noting that a drop below the $110,000 threshold could initiate a test of the $104,000 to $108,000 liquidity band, according to Timothy Misir, head of research at digital-assets analytics platform BRN. “The market now enters a consolidation phase, characterized by renewed caution, selective risk-taking, and a more measured rebuilding of confidence across both spot and derivatives markets,” commented analytics firm Glassnode. Furthermore, market expert Doctor Profit has outlined three potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory over the short, mid, and long term on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). In the short term, covering the current month, the Bitcoin outlook is neutral. Although a slightly bullish sentiment was noted yesterday, it has reverted to neutral as new data emerges, emphasizing the need for more information to make a conclusive decision. For the mid-term outlook, spanning one to three months, the sentiment is bearish. The expert indicates that the market has recently entered the early stages of a bear phase. While there may be instances of dead cat bounces, he suggests that the overall direction for the mid-term appears to be downward. Looking further ahead, in the long term (three to twelve months), the analysis remains extremely bearish for Bitcoin and crypto as the macroeconomic environment indicates an impending global economic upheaval, which many believe is closer than it appears. When writing, Bitcoin trades just above its key support for the short-term at $110,300. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. The only notable report is industrial production in the Eurozone, which is once again unlikely to impress traders with a strong result. However, expectations for this indicator are already quite low, so exceeding them may be relatively easy. No other significant reports are expected throughout the day. Fundamental Event Overview: Several fundamental events are scheduled for Wednesday, but several important points should be noted straight away. Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde have both spoken frequently in recent weeks. As a result, the market now has a clear understanding of what to expect from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in the near term. The U.S. government shutdown continues, meaning key macroeconomic indicators are not being published. Without new data, Fed officials have little basis to alter their communication or policy stance. The ECB has likely concluded its monetary policy easing cycle, as it has successfully brought inflation down to its target level. The Bank of England is also likely to enter a prolonged pause in its easing cycle, as inflation in the UK currently exceeds the target by nearly twofold. Therefore, no significant policy shifts or major announcements are expected from central bank officials at this time. General Conclusions: On the third trading day of the week, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD may continue to move erratically and illogically. So far, we have observed declines in both pairs that are difficult to explain from a fundamental perspective. Today, the euro may resume growth and target the 1.1655–1.1666 area, as it has now consolidated above the 1.1571–1.1584 zone. The British pound may also continue its recovery after consolidating above the trendline and the 1.3329–1.3331 resistance area, aiming for the 1.3413–1.3421 target zone. Core Trading System Rules: Signal strength is based on how quickly a clear signal forms—a bounce or breakout. The faster the formation, the stronger the signal.If a level has produced two or more false signals recently, ignore future signals from that level.In a sideways (flat) market, many false signals may occur—or none at all. It's best to stop trading if a flat pattern becomes evident.Trades should be opened between the start of the European trading session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually afterward.Trades on the hourly timeframe using MACD signals should only be made when there's good volatility and trend confirmation via trendlines or channels.If two levels are within 5 to 20 pips of one another, they should be treated as a single support/resistance area.Once the price moves 15-20 pips in the right direction, stop loss should be moved to breakeven.Chart Elements: Support and resistance levels (targets for buy/sell trades, suitable for setting Take Profit)Red lines: trendlines or channels indicating the current trend or directional biasMACD (14,22,3) histogram and signal line — used as a supplemental signal generatorImportant Note: Major speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. During such events, it is best to trade with maximum caution or exit the market entirely to avoid getting caught in sharp price reversals. Beginner traders should remember: Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a sound strategy and utilizing proper money management are key to success over the long run. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dogecoin started a fresh increase above the $0.20 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears $0.2180. DOGE price started a fresh upward move above $0.20 and $0.2050. The price is trading above the $0.20 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $0.1980 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could aim for more gains if it remains stable above $0.1880. Dogecoin Price Eyes Fresh Upside Dogecoin price started a fresh increase after it settled above $0.1880, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE climbed above the $0.20 resistance to enter a positive zone. The bulls were able to push the price above $0.2050 and $0.2120. A high was formed at $0.2182 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $0.1787 swing low to the $0.2182 high. Dogecoin price is now trading above the $0.20 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $0.1980 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. If there is another increase, immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.2085 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.2120 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.2180 level. A close above the $0.2180 resistance might send the price toward $0.2320. Any more gains might send the price toward $0.250. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.2620. Another Decline In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.2120 level, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.20 level. The next major support is near the $0.1980 level and the trend line. The main support sits at $0.1880. If there is a downside break below the $0.1880 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.1720 level or even $0.1650 in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now losing momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.1980 and $0.1880. Major Resistance Levels – $0.2120 and $0.2180.

Review of Tuesday's Trades:1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair moved both upward and downward. However, the British pound had additional reasons to decline early in the session. In the morning, the UK released reports on unemployment and jobless claims, which triggered a sell-off in the pound. Contrary to forecasts and expectations, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1%, and the number of newly unemployed rose by 26,000—significantly above projections. As a result, the decline in sterling was entirely justified. In the second half of the day, Jerome Powell offered some relief for the pound. Once again, he stated that the Federal Reserve has no specific plans to cut interest rates and that decisions will be based solely on incoming macroeconomic data. A bit later, Donald Trump threatened to stop importing vegetable oil from China, which hurt the U.S. dollar and contributed to its fall. Overall, we expect a continued decline in the dollar, particularly after the descending trendline was broken. 5-Minute GBP/USD Chart On the 5-minute timeframe, GBP/USD produced more trading signals than EUR/USD and showed higher volatility. In the early morning, a sell signal was generated around the 1.3329–1.3331 zone. After that, the pair moved down to 1.3259. That support level triggered at least three rebounds throughout the day, and by its end, the pair had returned to the 1.3329–1.3331 area. Therefore, beginner traders could have executed two trades, both of which ended with a profit. How to Trade on Wednesday: On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to form a downward trend, which in our view is long overdue for completion. As previously mentioned, there are no strong reasons for the U.S. dollar to rise over the medium term, so we still anticipate a return to an upward movement. The market remains in a peculiar state. The British pound continues to fall, but there is no clear justification for the decline—outside of technical factors. Much of the current movement appears irrational. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair may attempt a continued upward correction, as the trendline has already been broken. A confirmed breakout above the 1.3329–1.3331 zone also opens the path for initiating long positions with a target at 1.3413. On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at levels 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3682, and 1.3763. For Wednesday, there are no major economic releases scheduled in the UK or U.S., so we may see a flat market or low-volatility price action during the day. Core Trading System Rules:Signal strength is based on how quickly a clear signal forms—a bounce or breakout. The faster the formation, the stronger the signal.If a level has produced two or more false signals recently, ignore future signals from that level.In a sideways (flat) market, many false signals may occur—or none at all. It's best to stop trading if a flat pattern becomes evident.Trades should be opened between the start of the European trading session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually afterward.Trades on the hourly timeframe using MACD signals should only be made when there's good volatility and trend confirmation via trendlines or channels.If two levels are within 5 to 20 pips of one another, they should be treated as a single support/resistance area.Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction, stop loss should be moved to breakeven.Chart Elements:Support and resistance levels (targets for buy/sell trades, suitable for setting Take Profit)Red lines: trendlines or channels indicating the current trend or directional biasMACD (14,22,3) histogram and signal line — used as a supplemental signal generatorImportant Note: Major speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. During such events, it is best to trade with maximum caution or exit the market entirely to avoid getting caught in sharp price reversals. Beginner traders should remember: Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a sound strategy and utilizing proper money management are key to success over the long run. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of Tuesday's Trades:1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair managed to trade in both directions. In the morning, the euro came under pressure due to weaker-than-expected ZEW economic sentiment indices from both Germany and the Eurozone. In the second half of the day, the U.S. dollar faced pressure due to public remarks by Jerome Powell and Donald Trump. Chair Powell once again stated that the Federal Reserve will make decisions based solely on macroeconomic data and also signaled the end of the quantitative tightening program. Both statements could be interpreted in multiple ways. The market still lacks confidence in whether we will see one or two rate cuts this year, though it leans toward two. At the same time, Donald Trump stated that the U.S. can produce its own vegetable oil domestically instead of importing it from China—an announcement that could easily be construed as another escalation in the ongoing trade conflict. In our view, the dollar doesn't need these comments to continue declining, but technically, a descending trendline is still in place, suggesting that the current dollar strength may be part of a broader sideways channel on the daily timeframe. 5-Minute EUR/USD Chart Two trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart on Tuesday. First, the pair broke below the 1.1571–1.1584 range, moving down about 19 pips. Later, the price broke back through the same area from below and rose about 20 pips. Thus, beginner traders could have placed two trades—either of which would have avoided losses. If the second position had been closed manually, it could have yielded a modest profit of around 20 pips. How to Trade on Wednesday: On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair broke through the trendline several times, driven by somewhat questionable news catalysts. We regard the current movement as entirely illogical. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains negative for the U.S. dollar, which is why we do not expect meaningful long-term dollar strength. As before, we believe the greenback can rely only on short-term technical corrections, which we continue to observe now. On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair may move in either direction. Logic is scarcely present in current movements, and there's a fair amount of chaos. A correction may begin following the prolonged recent decline, especially given that Trump has announced another round of tariffs on China. Guessing, however, makes little sense. It is far more effective to follow and execute valid trading signals on the 5-minute chart. On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. The only major data point scheduled in the Eurozone for Wednesday is the industrial production report. The U.S. macroeconomic calendar remains empty due to the government shutdown. Core Trading System Rules:Signal strength is based on how quickly a clear signal forms—a bounce or breakout. The faster the formation, the stronger the signal.If a level has produced two or more false signals recently, ignore future signals from that level.In a sideways (flat) market, many false signals may occur—or none at all. It's best to stop trading if a flat pattern becomes evident.Trades should be opened between the start of the European trading session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually afterward.Trades on the hourly timeframe using MACD signals should only be made when there's good volatility and trend confirmation via trendlines or channels.If two levels are within 5 to 20 pips of one another, they should be treated as a single support/resistance area.Once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction, stop loss should be moved to breakeven.Chart Elements:Support and resistance levels (targets for buy/sell trades, suitable for setting Take Profit)Red lines: trendlines or channels indicating the current trend or directional biasMACD (14,22,3) histogram and signal line — used as a supplemental signal generatorImportant Note: Major speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. During such events, it is best to trade with maximum caution or exit the market entirely to avoid getting caught in sharp price reversals. Beginner traders should remember: Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a sound strategy and utilizing proper money management are key to success over the long run. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how the latest Bitcoin selloff is different from the LUNA and FTX crashes of 2022. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Trend Is Structurally Different For The Latest Crash In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed how the recent bearish action in BTC compares against some of the past crashes. The analytics firm has used the Percent Supply in Profit to make the comparison. This on-chain indicator measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the total Bitcoin circulating supply that’s sitting on some net unrealized gain right now. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to see what price it was last transferred or sold at. If this previous transaction price was less than the latest spot price for any token, then it may be considered to be currently sitting on some profit. The Percent Supply in Profit adds up all coins of this type and determines what percentage of the supply they make up. Another indicator called the Percent Supply in Loss tracks the tokens of the opposite type. If one of these indicators is known, the other can simply be calculated by subtracting it from 100, since the total BTC supply must add up to 100%. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit over the last few years: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit hit the 100% mark earlier in the month when the cryptocurrency’s price set its new all-time high (ATH). When the sharp selloff at the end of last week started, the indicator’s value was still well over the 90% mark, meaning the vast majority of investors were in the green. As such, the crash was more profit-driven, with losses mostly coming from the top buyers. During some of the big crashes of the 2022 bear market, however, the market conditions were quite different. In the LUNA and FTX collapses, the Percent Supply in Profit sat under 65%. In the chart, Glassnode has also highlighted the data of another metric: the Net Realized Profit/Loss, measuring whether profit-taking or loss-taking is dominant on the BTC network. From this indicator, it’s apparent that the aforementioned crashes saw deep negative values, implying a broad capitulation event took place. The 3AC collapse occurred alongside a higher Percent Supply in Profit, but it also witnessed a notable spike in loss-taking. Based on this, Glassnode concludes that the latest Bitcoin crash was “a structurally different, leverage-driven event.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,400, down more than 11% over the last week.

Washington’s latest retirement push could send fresh 401(k) money toward Bitcoin sooner than expected. House Republicans on Tuesday introduced the Retirement Investment Choice Act, a bill that would turn President Donald Trump’s August executive order into law. The proposal formally opens the door for retirement plans to include “alternative assets,” such as funds investing in digital currencies. The move comes as regulators advance guidance on the issue, with Bitcoin trading near $113,000 in a volatile market. If passed, the legislation would give Executive Order 14330 the full force of law. It directs the Labor Department and Securities and Exchange Commission to make room for a wider range of investment choices in defined-contribution plans like 401(k)s. How Will the 180-Day Deadline Affect Employer Retirement Plans? While the order doesn’t require plans to offer crypto, it specifically mentions “actively managed investment vehicles that invest in digital assets.” It also sets a 180-day deadline for the Labor Secretary to clarify fiduciary duties, potentially including safe-harbor protections for employers who choose to offer such options. In May, the Labor Department rescinded its 2022 guidance that had urged plan sponsors to exercise “extreme care” with crypto-related products. The rollback marked a shift to a neutral stance, neither endorsing nor discouraging digital asset exposure in retirement portfolios. In September, the Labor Department said it plans to propose new rules clarifying when asset-allocation funds that include alternatives can be offered. The agency also hinted at potential safe harbors for fiduciaries handling such products. “This Advisory Opinion provides much-needed clarity and certainty as the department works toward issuing proposed regulations,” Deputy Secretary Keith Sonderling said at the time. Bitcoin is trading around $112,985, with intraday moves between roughly $110,099 and $115,916. (Source: Coingecko) According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $326.5 million in net outflows on Tuesday, as global markets weakened amid renewed US-China trade tensions. (Source: SoSoValue) The new executive order directs regulators to coordinate on how alternative assets can fit into default options and managed retirement portfolios. This matters because most savers rely on target-date or professionally managed funds. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in October2025 Why Are BlackRock and KKR Creating Retirement-Ready Investment Products? Industry momentum is growing fast. Empower backed the order in August, saying they plan to expand access to private investments and cryptocurrency alongside lifetime-income options. Major asset managers, including BlackRock and KKR, are now developing retirement-friendly products. Private-market firms are looking at how to make their offerings fit the daily-priced structure of defined-contribution plans. Supporters in Congress say this flexibility could help diversify portfolios without weakening ERISA protections. A House Financial Services Committee letter last month praised the order and urged the Labor Department to create a formal “safe harbor” through rulemaking. Not everyone agrees. Critics warn that adding alternatives, especially crypto, could raise fees, limit liquidity, and bring more volatility to 401(k) plans. Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt has shared how he’s positioning himself for retirement. In a recent post on X, he said he plans to keep 5% of his Bitcoin holdings in his retirement portfolio. The comment came as a follow-up to a question he’d earlier posed to his followers about investment strategies later in life. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Brandt’s approach goes beyond Bitcoin. He’s focusing on steady income and lower risk. Brandt is also choosing dividend-paying stocks for steady income. He is also adding emerging-market exposure for growth and investing in precious metals like gold and silver as a hedge against inflation. He also said he’s cutting back his trading activity. He’s moving from daily to weekly trades to slow his pace as he nears retirement. This strategy marks a move toward stability and reliable returns. Yet, keeping 5% of his portfolio in Bitcoin, he shows he still believes in the asset’s long-term strength. This is true even after the market’s recent slump. To Brandt, Bitcoin remains a hedge against inflation, his version of digital gold. His approach reflects a simple message: as retirement nears, balance and steady income matter more than hype. Brandt also explained why real estate didn’t cut, saying property prices are inflated and could see a major correction soon. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Retirement Portfolios Are About to Pump Your Crypto Stack: Here’s Why appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The United States has exposed a massive forced-labor and cyber-fraud network operating out of Cambodia, seizing nearly $15Bn in Bitcoin now held in federal custody. The unprecedented case raises a new question: could these funds eventually become part of Washington’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve? Prosecutors on Tuesday unsealed charges against Chen Zhi, chairman of Cambodia’s Prince Group, accusing him of running large-scale “pig-butchering” scam compounds that trafficked workers and defrauded victims around the world. At the same time, the Justice Department launched the biggest forfeiture action in US history, targeting roughly 127,271 BTC tied to the network. The operation was coordinated with authorities in the United Kingdom, and both countries announced parallel sanctions against the Prince Group and its affiliates. The announcements came on October 14 in Brooklyn and Washington, D.C. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in October2025 How Did the Prince Group Become the Center of a $15Bn Bitcoin Seizure? Attorney General Pamela Bondi called the case “one of the most significant strikes” against human trafficking and cyber-enabled financial fraud. The FBI described the takedown as “one of the largest financial fraud operations ever dismantled.” Chen Zhi remains at large. The size of the seizure has sparked discussion about what the US might do with such a massive Bitcoin stockpile. While the government has previously auctioned smaller crypto holdings seized from criminal cases, this amount is historically large. Some observers believe it could test the framework for a future national Bitcoin reserve, an idea gaining quiet traction in Washington. Prosecutors say the Prince Group held trafficked workers in prison-like compounds and forced them to run large-scale romance and investment scams. The Justice Department reports that the defendant stored approximately 127,271 BTC in unhosted wallets controlled through private keys held by the defendant. Officials called it the largest forfeiture complaint in the department’s history. The government is holding the seized funds until the case is resolved. In a related move, the US Treasury designated the “Prince Group Transnational Criminal Organization” and sanctioned 146 associated individuals and entities. It also used a USA PATRIOT Act §311 order. This blocked the Cambodia-based Huione Group from accessing the US financial system. The UK followed with its own actions, freezing London properties tied to the network, including a £12M mansion, and sanctioning Chen along with several affiliated companies. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Will the $15B in BTC go into the US Bitcoin Reserve? President Trump’s March 2025 executive order created the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). It directs that the US government’s Bitcoin holdings come from forfeited criminal assets, not taxpayer money. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that stance, saying the department isn’t purchasing Bitcoin and will rely solely on lawful seizures. Before the latest action, federal agencies were estimated to already hold between $15Bn and $20Bn worth of Bitcoin from past cases. If courts approve today’s forfeiture and finalize victim restitution, authorities could add the seized funds to the SBR. This would follow existing rules. Senator Cynthia Lummis is a key supporter of formalizing the reserve through legislation. She praised the Justice Department’s work and urged Congress to set clearer rules for handling digital assets. Senator Lummis urged officials to safeguard seized Bitcoin and compensate victims. She also called for preserving remaining funds as part of the nation’s long-term digital reserve strategy. Bitcoin prices showed little immediate reaction, hovering around $112,521. The broader crypto market remained subdued amid ongoing global economic pressures this week. (Source: Coingecko) DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Trump Team Seizes $15B in Bitcoin from Cambodian Cyber Gang, Will it Go to US Bitcoin Reserve? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

XRP price started a fresh increase above $2.50. The price is now showing positive signs and could aim for more gains above the $2.620 level. XRP price is attempting a recovery wave above the $2.50 zone. The price is now trading above $2.50 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.60 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh surge if it clears the $2.60 resistance. XRP Price Set To Surge? XRP price found support and started a strong recovery wave above $2.220, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above the $2.320 and $2.40 levels to enter a positive zone. The bulls were able to push the price above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $1.40 swing low. However, the bears are still active near the $2.60 and $2.620 levels. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.60 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading above $2.50 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $2.550 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.60 level and the trend line. The main hurdle could be near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $1.40 swing low at $2.660. A clear move above the $2.660 resistance might send the price toward the $2.720 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.750 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $2.80. Another Drop? If XRP fails to clear the $2.60 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.50 level. The next major support is near the $2.420 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.420 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.320. The next major support sits near the $2.250 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $2.20. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.50 and $2.420. Major Resistance Levels – $2.60 and $2.660.

Ethereum appears to be entering a pivotal phase as the market stabilizes around a key support level near $3,800. After a period of correction, technical indicators, structural signals, and price action now suggest the potential for a renewed bullish move. Ethereum Slips Below Key $4,060 Support Ted, in a recent update shared on X, pointed out that Ethereum has slipped below its crucial $4,060 support level, a move that may hint at a short-term bearish phase for the asset. This breakdown has drawn traders’ attention to lower support regions, as Ethereum’s next moves will likely determine whether the market stabilizes or faces further pressure. According to Ted, the next major support sits around $3,800, a level that has recently served as a strong demand zone. If Ethereum fails to defend this region, it could open the door for a deeper correction toward the $3,400–$3,600 range, where a stronger accumulation phase might form. Such a decline would likely shake out weak hands and allow for a more sustainable base to build upon for the next major move. However, Ted also noted a possible bullish scenario where Ethereum could reclaim the $4,060 and $4,250 levels. A successful recovery above these zones could confirm that the recent drop was merely a correction within a larger bullish structure, potentially paving the way for a powerful rally as the market regains confidence. Bullish Structure Confirmed As ETH Holds Key Demand Zone According to Nadezhada on X, Ethereum’s chart is looking increasingly bullish, showing signs of strength after recent market movements. The analyst noted that a Break of Structure (BOS) has been confirmed, signaling that Ethereum may be preparing for its next significant upward move. Nadezhada highlighted a key demand zone between $3,910 and $3,800, which aligns with both a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and an Order Block (OB) on the chart. This area represents a strong region of buyer interest, where liquidity could build up. Thus, maintaining stability within this zone may set the foundation for the next rally. If Ethereum manages to hold the $3,910–$3,800 support area, Nadezhada believes it could act as a springboard for a sharp move toward $4,550 and beyond. Such a rebound would mark a strong continuation of the broader uptrend, with buyers firmly back in control. The crypto analyst concluded by emphasizing that buyers appear to be positioning for the next leg higher, as technical signals continue to align in their favor. With structure, demand, and sentiment converging, Ethereum seems ready to attempt another breakout if market conditions remain supportive.

The GBP/USD currency pair once again traded lower on Tuesday. This time, there were actual reasons for the pound's decline—at least during the first half of the day. The UK releases macroeconomic data infrequently, but Tuesday was one of those rare days. The unemployment rate came in above expectations, while jobless claims exceeded forecasts by 2.5 times. These two reports were enough to trigger a further drop in the pound. Naturally, the market continues to ignore equally poor fundamental and macroeconomic data for the U.S. dollar—but that has now become business as usual in recent weeks. In the EUR/USD article, we suggested that the recent declines in both major currency pairs could be attributed to either market manipulation or simply range-bound movement (flat) on the daily chart—and either way, the outcome remains the same: a prolonged downturn for the U.S. dollar. No one knows when this will happen. Perhaps we'll continue to observe flat trading for months. However, considering the current fundamental background, it is difficult to argue in favor of dollar strength. We want to remind readers that monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England remains a key driver for currency movement. Even if the Fed refrains from cutting its policy rate in 2025—which cannot be ruled out entirely—it will still end up lowering rates eventually. If not in 2025, then in 2026. Even if the Monetary Committee resists, the Fed will still ease policy. Even if inflation rises to 4–5%, the Fed is likely to continue with dovish measures. Trump will not let up pressure on the central bank. As of now, three out of twelve voting FOMC members support cutting rates at every meeting. Next year, this number is expected to rise to at least four. All Trump needs is a suitable pretext to replace another two members, and then the outcome is sealed. Once that happens, rates could rapidly plunge. Trump is not concerned with how markets will react. He and his team are likely preparing in advance for market turmoil to capitalize on it. Meanwhile, BoE officials are already suggesting that no further policy easing may be necessary in 2025. The situation is straightforward, and we've been warning traders about it since the summer. UK inflation has risen to nearly 4%, almost twice the central bank's target, and it has been increasing steadily for a full year. This is no seasonal surge but a sustained trend that could continue into next year. As a result, the BoE currently has no reason to lower the key interest rate—unless, of course, the UK labor market collapses in a manner similar to the U.S. The average volatility of GBP/USD over the past five trading days stands at 94 pips, which is considered "average" for the pair. On Wednesday, October 15, we expect the pair to move within a range bounded by 1.3205 and 1.3393. The higher linear regression channel is pointed upward, indicating a clear medium-term uptrend. The CCI indicator has re-entered the oversold zone for the third time, once again signaling the potential for a resumption of bullish movement. Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.3245 S2 – 1.3184 S3 – 1.3123 Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.3306 R2 – 1.3367 R3 – 1.3428 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD currency pair is currently undergoing a correction, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to pressure the dollar, so we do not anticipate sustained appreciation of the U.S. currency. Therefore, long positions targeting 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain more relevant if the price remains above the moving average. If the price falls below the moving average line, small short positions can be considered with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3205 based on technical factors. From time to time, the dollar experiences brief corrections (as is happening now), but for a real and lasting bullish trend to form, it needs clear signs that the trade war is ending or other broad, positive developments. Illustration Key:Linear regression channels help outline the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The smoothed moving average (20.0) determines the short-term direction and recommended bias.Murray levels serve as reference points for movement targets and corrective phases.Volatility levels (red lines) estimate the projected daily price range based on current volatility metrics.The CCI indicator signals a potential reversal when entering oversold (below –250) or overbought (above +250) zones.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair moved—once again—downward throughout Tuesday. At this point, it seems we could write the same story every day: the dollar strengthened yet again, with seemingly no apparent reason. Of course, with enough effort, a reason can always be found. Tuesday provided a weaker-than-expected ZEW economic sentiment index for both Germany and the Eurozone. But here's the problem: why does the market treat all negative euro news seriously, while consistently ignoring negative dollar news? Let's recall: the U.S. government shutdown continues, the labor market is deteriorating, the Federal Reserve is more dovish than the European Central Bank, and President Trump escalated the trade war with China again last Friday. Aren't these factors enough to push the dollar down by at least 100 pips? For now, the market continues to ignore nearly all bearish data for the dollar. And this brings us back to our headline: not "Why is the dollar rising?" but "What is the dollar rising for?" Recent developments in the cryptocurrency market provide a useful comparison. If Bitcoin and Ethereum fell only moderately, some altcoins dropped by as much as 100% in just 10 minutes. Now ask yourself: What level of trust will traders have in 99% of altcoins if they know even a stop-loss order can't protect them? If they realize that prices can collapse to zero at any moment? These are instruments too far removed from real market behavior. And to this day, we still haven't received a clear explanation for what happened last Friday evening. Analysts keep blaming Trump's new tariffs on China as the cause for the crypto sell-off. But Trump introduces new tariffs nearly every week. These same analysts show no concern for the fact that Bitcoin performed well for the past 4–5 months in the midst of that same trade war. And the dollar? It shows no reaction at all—to the shutdown, to the renewed trade tensions. But as long as there's a "formal" reason for a move, no one questions deeper logic. We believe the same kind of dynamic is currently unfolding with the U.S. dollar. It may not be outright manipulation by market makers, but the dollar's strength is certainly illogical. What message are large players sending to retail traders? That the dollar will continue to appreciate, and that the worst is behind it. The dollar is still the world's reserve currency. And when EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall far enough, a new strong rally will start at the most unexpected moment—because large players will have already built massive long positions. We also note that on the daily timeframe, both pairs remain in a flat range—meaning, further declines don't even need a reason. One of two things is happening: either this is a large-scale technical correction or manipulation. Or both at once. Either way, in our view, the outcome will be the same. The average EUR/USD volatility over the last five trading days is 75 pips, which is classified as "average." On Wednesday, we expect the pair to move within the range of 1.1520 to 1.1670. The higher linear regression channel is still pointed upward, indicating a longer-term uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, which could lead to the start of a new bullish phase. Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.1536 S2 – 1.1414 S3 – 1.1353 Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.1597 R2 – 1.1658 R3 – 1.1719 Trading Recommendations:EUR/USD continues a corrective phase, but the long-term uptrend remains intact, as seen on all higher timeframes. The U.S. dollar remains under pressure from Donald Trump's policies, which show no sign of slowing down. While the dollar has risen recently, the fundamental drivers behind this are questionable. The flat range on the daily chart explains much of the market's behavior. If price remains below the moving average, short positions may be considered with targets at 1.1536 and 1.1520 based purely on technical factors. If the pair breaks above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902, continuing the trend. Illustration Key:Linear regression channels help outline the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The smoothed moving average (20.0) determines the short-term direction and recommended bias.Murrey levels serve as reference points for movement targets and corrective phases.Volatility levels (red lines) estimate the projected daily price range based on current volatility metrics.The CCI indicator signals a potential reversal when entering oversold (below –250) or overbought (above +250) zones.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com