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Mantle (MNT) has reignited its bullish momentum, surging 30% in the past 24 hours to reclaim the $2.20 level after dipping as low as $1.50 over the weekend. The swift rebound underscores renewed buyer confidence following last week’s sharp correction from record highs. While MNT remains below its $2.84–$2.86 all-time high, the strong recovery suggests bulls are regaining control, potentially setting the stage for another push toward the upper range if momentum holds. Spot activity exploded, with daily trading volume up more than 60% to about $1.2 billion, while futures open interest climbed 9% to $269.7 million, a signal that speculative demand is accelerating alongside spot buying. Fundamental Tailwinds: RWAs, Stablecoin Liquidity, and Exchange Distribution Beyond the chart, Mantle’s rally is grounded in clear catalysts. The network’s Tokenization-as-a-Service (TaaS)stack is pulling real-world asset issuers on-chain, while the launch of USD1, a new stablecoin building on Mantle, is injecting fresh liquidity and utility into its DeFi rails. Distribution is another edge: Mantle’s deepening Bybit integration (treasury programs, listings, and roadmap alignment) is funneling sustained order flow, not just one-off hype. Analysts also highlight Mantle’s modular design (execution on Mantle with EigenDA for data availability and OP-stack upgrades) that lowers costs and improves throughput, important for tokenization, trading, and payments use cases. Can Mantle (MNT) Bulls Clear $3? The Levels and Scenarios Momentum favors further upside as a decisive close above $2.87 could open the door to $3.00, with extended targets near $3.60 if volume and open interest continue to rise. On the downside, $2.50–$2.55 is initial intraday support, followed by the must-hold $1.90–$2.00 zone; losing that would risk a deeper retrace toward $1.60–$1.75 where buyers last reloaded. For now, breadth (spot + derivatives), rising participation, and a tight, orderly trend argue for trend continuation rather than a blow-off top. Technically, MNT’s clean breakout above $2.00 was followed by strong follow-through and a steady series of higher lows. As long as price holds the $1.90–$2.00 demand zone, the bull structure remains intact, with traders eyeing $2.87 (recent high) and the psychological $3.00 mark next. Cover image from ChatGPT, MNTUSD chart from Tradingview

Singapore’s High Court has given the green light to a restructuring plan for crypto exchange WazirX, clearing a major obstacle in the company’s effort to repay users after last year’s large theft. According to reports, the court’s approval on October 13 allows the exchange to move ahead with a court-supervised recovery process tied to the $234 million hack that hit the platform in July 2024. Creditor Vote And Numbers Based on reports from the company, the revised plan won broad backing from affected account holders. In an August revote, 95.7% of participating scheme creditors voted in favor, and those votes came from 143,190 participating creditors representing about $196 million in approved claims. The strong turnout and result were used by WazirX to press its case to the Singapore court. The hack itself exploited a Safe Multisig wallet in mid-July 2024 and drained a large pool of user funds. Investigations and media accounts linked the breach to advanced cyber operators, and the theft forced WazirX to freeze both crypto and rupee withdrawals while legal options were explored. What Users Will Receive According to several outlets, users may recover a substantial portion of lost funds under the approved plan. Reports have said recoveries could reach up to 55% of the losses, delivered as a mix of immediate liquid payments and so-called Recovery Tokens that represent remaining claims to be fulfilled over time. WazirX has said the first wave of payouts — in stablecoin or USDT equivalent — would follow once the scheme takes effect. That mix means some users will get cash-equivalent payments quickly while others will hold tokens that the company intends to redeem as it regains assets or generates revenue. The plan shifts part of the repayment responsibility to entities inside India to comply with local rules, a change that was highlighted during court rounds. The road to approval was not straight. The Singapore court had earlier rejected a first version of the scheme after judges raised questions over the plan’s structure and oversight. That decision forced WazirX and its advisers to rework the proposal and secure a fresh vote from creditors before returning to court. Next Steps And Timeline If the scheme becomes effective under the court’s timetable, WazirX says distributions of available liquid assets will begin within 10 business days. That window is expected to trigger the initial USDT transfers while RTs are recorded for the remainder of approved claims. The exchange will still need to finish legal formalities and coordinate with payment processors and regulators. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

In recent years, central banks have been preoccupied with monetary easing, and few in the market have considered the question: who will be the first to raise interest rates again? That central bank could potentially be the European Central Bank (ECB), which was the first to cut rates to "neutral" levels and the first to return inflation to its target. Therefore, a moment may come in the future when inflation starts to accelerate again, prompting the ECB to take a more hawkish stance. Among major central banks, the ECB appears closest to that point. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the eurozone remains slightly above 2%. However, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde and several other policymakers, inflationary risks persist due to factors such as Trump's trade war, rising global energy prices, and continued geopolitical uncertainty. Therefore, an inflation acceleration scenario is not fiction. Economists at Deutsche Bank also project that inflation will gradually increase over the next 1–2 years. As a result, the ECB could deliver its first interest rate hike since the COVID-19 era by the end of 2026. Of course, this is a long-term prospect, and because global conditions evolve rapidly, forecasting an entire year ahead is questionable. Still, such forecasts reflect a key point: among the three major central banks that influence EUR/USD and GBP/USD, the ECB may adopt the most hawkish stance. This is very favorable news for the euro, as its overall news backdrop remains relatively strong. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to remain dovish over the next year, and the British pound is also closely tied to this softer tone. Even focusing only on monetary policy, one could argue that demand for the euro and pound will continue to increase, while interest in the U.S. dollar may wane. Wave Analysis for EUR/USDAccording to the analysis of EUR/USD, the pair continues building an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still depends heavily on developments aligned with Trump's decisions and the internal and foreign policy of the new U.S. administration. The targets for the current bullish wave may extend as far as the 1.2500 range. A complex corrective wave 4 is currently forming and nearing completion—although it's unfolding in a very intricate manner. The broader bullish framework remains valid. Therefore, in the near term, I continue to consider only long positions, even though the corrective a-b-c wave structure has not fully concluded yet. By year-end, I expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Analysis for GBP/USDThe wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. The pair remains within a larger upward impulsive move, but its internal structure has become more complex. Wave 4 is taking shape as a complicated three-wave correction—significantly longer in duration and range than wave 2. At present, we are witnessing the formation of another three-wave corrective structure, which may soon reach completion. If confirmed, the broader uptrend may resume, with initial upside targets in the 1.3800 to 1.4000 range. Core Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex patterns are harder to trade and are more prone to change.If you're uncertain about the market's direction, it's better not to enter at all.There is no such thing as 100% certainty in market movement. Always use stop-loss orders.Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other types of market analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

It is also noted that Chinese companies are not only actively seeking alternative markets but are also using third countries to route their goods into the United States. I wrote about this back in the summer. The practice of bypassing sanctions through intermediary countries is widely used worldwide. For example, if China cannot export goods directly to the U.S. due to high tariffs, those same goods can be shipped first to South Korea or Japan and then re-exported to the United States under the guise of Korean or Japanese origin. The added costs for logistics and reprocessing are far less than the draconian tariffs imposed by Trump. It's well understood in financial markets that when tariffs exceed 100%, their purpose is not really to collect revenue. At those levels, cross-border trade ceases almost entirely. Trump is essentially blackmailing China with access to the U.S. market. The message: meet my conditions, or trade stops altogether. But for six months now, China has shown that while it values access to the U.S., other markets are willing and ready to buy Chinese goods. Beijing's decision to restrict exports of rare-earth metals is a calculated countermove by Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader is demonstrating that his country is capable of not only retaliatory actions but also offensive ones. If China's industries are no longer reliant on the American market, why not strike against their largest competitor? Trump quickly responded to Xi's decision but framed the situation as if China were hurting the entire world, not just the United States. In reality, China has shown no aggression toward the EU or other nations with amicable relations. Regardless of Trump's tariffs, Chinese goods remain highly competitive—unlike the prohibitively expensive products made in the U.S. and Europe. Western goods are essentially luxury items for the wealthy, whereas Chinese products define the global mass-market, used by approximately 80% of the global population. In this light, China won't be lost without access to the U.S. market. But the U.S. may soon find itself cut off from vital rare-earth materials—or forced to import them indirectly through intermediary countries. Wave Analysis for EUR/USDAccording to the analysis of EUR/USD, the pair continues building an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still depends heavily on developments aligned with Trump's decisions and the internal and foreign policy of the new U.S. administration. The targets for the current bullish wave may extend as far as the 1.2500 range. A complex corrective wave 4 is currently forming and nearing completion—although it's unfolding in a very intricate manner. The broader bullish framework remains valid. Therefore, in the near term, I continue to consider only long positions, even though the corrective a-b-c wave structure has not fully concluded yet. By year-end, I expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Analysis for GBP/USDThe wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. The pair remains within a larger upward impulsive move, but its internal structure has become more complex. Wave 4 is taking shape as a complicated three-wave correction—significantly longer in duration and range than wave 2. At present, we are witnessing the formation of another three-wave corrective structure, which may soon reach completion. If confirmed, the broader uptrend may resume, with initial upside targets in the 1.3800 to 1.4000 range. Core Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex patterns are harder to trade and are more prone to change.If you're uncertain about the market's direction, it's better not to enter at all.There is no such thing as 100% certainty in market movement. Always use stop-loss orders.Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other types of market analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

One of the most notable developments on Monday was the release of China's export and import statistics. The data revealed that in September, China's export volume not only increased but exceeded market expectations by a wide margin. What relevance does this have to EUR/USD and GBP/USD? Direct relevance—even though the U.S. dollar has been strengthening recently, which, to say the least, contradicts the news backdrop, though it partially matches the wave structure. So, export volumes are rising. This means China is successfully exporting more goods to other countries—excluding the U.S. Exports rose by 8.3% in September, and the trade surplus reached $90 billion. For context, for over a month now, Chinese imports to the U.S. have been subject to a flat 30% tariff. Chinese goods in the U.S. have become a third more expensive, yet exports are still increasing. This is only possible if China redirects more of its trade toward other regions. Essentially, China is carrying out a deliberate policy of risk diversification—namely, reducing reliance on U.S. markets amid an increasingly antagonistic trading environment under Donald Trump. Beijing understands well that Trump won't let it operate freely within the U.S. market. His stance boils down to: "If you want access to our market, comply with our list of conditions," which is constantly growing, often through ultimatums. Ironically, export figures to the U.S. aren't just falling—they're collapsing. For six straight months, Chinese exports to the U.S. have dropped by double-digit percentages. Meanwhile, exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America are rising. China is signaling that global demand for its goods remains robust. The U.S. market may be attractive, but it is not irreplaceable. Ahead of upcoming negotiations with Washington, Beijing is significantly strengthening its hand. Recall that Trump announced a 100% tariff hike on Chinese goods starting on November 1. But by now, these tariffs may have lost their leverage—China's export flows and GDP may be minimally affected. If the U.S. doesn't want cheap Chinese goods, that's fine—China will sell them to other countries without the baggage of demands attached. Wave Analysis for EUR/USDAccording to the analysis of EUR/USD, the pair continues building an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still depends heavily on developments aligned with Trump's decisions and the internal and foreign policy of the new U.S. administration. The targets for the current bullish wave may extend as far as the 1.2500 range. A complex corrective wave 4 is currently forming and nearing completion—although it's unfolding in a very intricate manner. The broader bullish framework remains valid. Therefore, in the near term, I continue to consider only long positions, even though the corrective a-b-c wave structure has not fully concluded yet. By year-end, I expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Analysis for GBP/USDThe wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. The pair remains within a larger upward impulsive move, but its internal structure has become more complex. Wave 4 is taking shape as a complicated three-wave correction—significantly longer in duration and range than wave 2. At present, we are witnessing the formation of another three-wave corrective structure, which may soon reach completion. If confirmed, the broader uptrend may resume, with initial upside targets in the 1.3800 to 1.4000 range. Core Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex patterns are harder to trade and are more prone to change.If you're uncertain about the market's direction, it's better not to enter at all.There is no such thing as 100% certainty in market movement. Always use stop-loss orders.Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other types of market analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to release the September inflation report on Friday, October 24. This will be the only report BLS intends to publish during the ongoing government shutdown, which underscores its significance—especially with the Federal Reserve scheduled to meet on October 29. Without updated inflation data, any justification for a rate cut from the Fed may evaporate. The market is currently convinced that the Fed will lower rates two more times before year-end. That's why BLS is determined to prevent market imbalance or a panic-driven reaction surrounding this key data. That said, markets are already in a state of heightened uncertainty. On Friday, both U.S. stock indices and the cryptocurrency market sharply declined, while gold resumed its climb on Monday, hitting a new all-time high. Risk appetite has fallen drastically, primarily due to the renewed escalation of the U.S.–China trade war. As usual, the escalation began with Trump—he announced 100% tariffs on all imports from China. According to the president, this move was triggered by China's refusal to compromise and its announcement of tighter export controls on strategically vital rare-earth metals. However, the Chinese response expressed nothing resembling fear. Officials noted that exports to the U.S. account for only about 10% of China's total export volume—and a significant share of that can easily be rerouted to other markets. There remain several mutually exclusive scenarios for the U.S. economic outlook. One scenario suggests that a cooling labor market is a sign of looming recession amid inflation fueled by tariff-driven cost pass-through to consumers. Another scenario argues that the U.S. economy is resilient and that any inflation will be limited, as companies absorb part of the added costs by accepting reduced profitability, while rate cuts from the Fed would give the economy a fresh boost. It's important to clarify where possible. For instance, the deterioration in labor market data is largely attributed to aggressive government immigration policies. Currently, approximately 1,500 people are deported daily—roughly 500,000 annually. The U.S. population growth has effectively stalled, and the labor supply is rapidly shrinking. Yet the unemployment rate has remained stable—not due to falling demand, but due to reduced supply. Equity markets had been rising sharply until recently, primarily driven by explosive investment into the tech sector, particularly artificial intelligence. However, this growth was concentrated in just seven major tech companies, while the remaining 493 firms in the S&P 500 index showed virtually no gains. It now seems increasingly unlikely that the S&P 500 will continue rising toward the 6970 mark. A corrective move toward the 6150 level appears more probable. Despite everything, we believe that the U.S. dollar retains fundamental support in an environment of elevated uncertainty. Supporting this conclusion are several factors: The euro's growing weakness, driven in part by France's political crisisA weaker Japanese yen following the electionsThe U.S. economy remains far from recession. If Trump and Xi Jinping fail to find common ground at their scheduled meeting in South Korea later this month, the most likely negative outcome will be a substantial U.S. stock market correction—not a collapse of the dollar. In particular, stock indices would be hit hardest, as much of the U.S. tech sector's hardware is currently imported, unlike during the dot-com boom of the early 2000s, when more domestic production helped absorb shocks. China's efforts to strictly control exports—especially of rare-earth materials—might undermine much of the optimism surrounding AI-driven economic growth. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The GBP/USD pair has been under pressure since mid-September, following the unexpectedly dovish outcome of the Bank of England's September meeting. While pound buyers have launched regular counterattacks, their short-term victories have mostly been fueled by U.S. dollar weakness rather than genuine pound strength. To recap briefly, last month the Bank of England held interest rates steady but signaled a readiness to lower them in the near future. The central bank notably softened its tone, stating that the disinflationary trend "continues overall." Moreover, contrary to the expectations of most analysts, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 0–2–7 (zero for a hike, two for a cut, seven to hold), rather than 0–1–8. Committee member Alan Taylor supported his colleague Swati Dhingra in voting for a 25 basis point cut. In other words, the central bank made it clear that it is ready to continue easing policy if economic conditions support such a move. Given this policy stance, the macroeconomic reports scheduled for release this week—important in their own right—gain heightened significance. If the data comes in "in the red," showing signs of economic slowdown, the likelihood of a rate cut at the next (November) meeting will increase significantly. On Tuesday, October 14, key U.K. labor market data will be released. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate for August is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%—marking the fourth consecutive month at this level. However, as a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate will not command traders' full attention. Focus will shift to more dynamic and timely components of the report. Notably, jobless claims are forecast to rise by 12,000 in September, following a 17,000 increase in August. If confirmed, this will serve as a moderately but steadily negative signal, indicating a cooling labor market. Additionally, if average earnings excluding bonuses slow to 4.7% (as most analysts anticipate), it will further weigh on the pound. Wages in the U.K. previously grew at a rate of 5% or higher from October 2024 through May 2025, and even exceeded 7% in earlier peak periods—contributing to inflationary pressures and supporting BoE hawkishness. A slowdown to 4.7% year-over-year would mark the weakest wage growth in over a year, signaling reduced inflationary pressure from domestic demand. In short, preliminary forecasts suggest bad news for the pound. If the labor market report meets expectations—or worse—GBP may come under additional pressure. However, the most important macroeconomic release for GBP/USD will follow on Thursday, October 16. That day, key data on the growth of the British economy will be released. Although the U.K. statistical system reports with a noticeable time lag (in October, we'll be looking at August data), the release is still expected to spur significant volatility in GBP/USD—especially if the figures fall short of forecasts. Specifically: August GDP is expected to rise by 0.1% m/m after flat growth in JulyQuarterly GDP is expected to remain at 0.2%Industrial production should increase 0.2% m/m after a 0.9% drop in JulyManufacturing output is also seen growing 0.2% m/m after a 1.3% declineConstruction output is expected to fall by 0.2% m/m after rising by the same margin previouslyThe services activity index is forecast to remain at 0.2%What does this suggest? If the figures meet expectations or come in weaker, they will reflect anemic and uneven growth in the British economy, with minimal gains in GDP and industrial production, and contraction in construction. This outcome would allow the Bank of England to reduce rates by 25 basis points next month, especially if labor data aligns with GDP weakness. Naturally, such results would put additional pressure on the pound—even against the weakening U.S. dollar. Technical OutlookTechnically, sell positions remain favored on the GBP/USD daily chart. The pair trades between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands indicator and remains below all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which has formed the bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. The first (and so far only) downside target lies at 1.3270—the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands channel on the D1 timeframe. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Who is more dangerous: the wicked jester or the mad philosopher? The latest political gamble by the president of France borders on irrationality. He continues to repeat the same actions, expecting different outcomes. Sebastien Lecornu has once again become Prime Minister after leading what was the shortest-lived government in French history. His two predecessors, Francois Barnier and Francois Bayrou, were both ousted via votes of no confidence. Will the third time be the charm? Donald Trump, in contrast, resembles a wicked jester. His threats, imposing tariffs and then rolling them back, resemble a circus act. His behavior even inspired a new trading philosophy—TACO: "Trump Always Caves Out." Signs that he may soon walk back his newly announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports sent EUR/USD on a rollercoaster ride. Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump have effectively become the brooding madman and the malevolent clown—terrorizing the financial markets. In France, all seems calm on the surface, as reflected by the narrowing yield spread between French and German bonds. However, as the saying goes, still waters run deep. Meanwhile, the U.S. tariffs have jolted investors out of their euphoric state. Yet cautiously dovish rhetoric from White House officials suggests that the worst may be over. A new full-scale trade war seems unlikely. Yield Spread Dynamics: French vs. German Bonds Peace in France may be illusory. Sebastien Lecornu is attempting to draft a budget that pleases both left-wing socialists and right-wing parties like the National Rally. These opposing groups hold the most seats in parliament, but their demands are polar opposites. One calls for reversing pension reforms, increasing spending, and taxing the wealthy. The other wants snap elections. A renewed no-confidence vote may be just around the corner—a bearish outcome for EUR/USD. On the other side of the Atlantic: calm after the storm. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed hope that Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping will still take place. The American administration remains open to negotiations with Beijing. Bloomberg reports that China is also willing to relax its recently tightened controls on rare-earth mineral exports, which had initially triggered Trump's outrage. Thus, the picture across the Atlantic is one of stark contrasts, but investor nerves are stretched to the limit. The euro briefly surged above $1.1600, but bullish momentum proved insufficient to sustain a breakout. Technical AnalysisOn the daily EUR/USD chart, a second consecutive inside bar has formed. This pattern reflects a high degree of market indecision. Pending orders are advised at: 1.1555 for sell positions1.1630 for buy positionsThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

A black swan has landed on the cryptocurrency market. Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods—made via social media—served as the unforeseen trigger that led to record sell-offs in Bitcoin from its historic highs. BTC/USD plummeted by 12% in intraday trading. According to Coinglass, a staggering $19 billion in positions were liquidated within 24 hours, and over 1.6 million trader accounts were closed due to unrecoverable losses. The crypto market incurred the heaviest damage due to its 24/7 trading cycle. Trump, careful to spare his beloved equities, made his tariff announcement after U.S. stock markets had closed. Bitcoin fared relatively well under the circumstances. Ethereum tumbled to $3,500, while the most significant carnage occurred in the altcoin market, where higher volatility triggered mass liquidations of heavily leveraged positions. Euphoria also played a part. Before the rekindling of the U.S.–China trade war, the digital asset market was soaring. Not only were geopolitical tensions and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown boosting demand for Bitcoin as "digital gold," but the record highs in the S&P 500 fueled BTC/USD's rally amid rising interest in risk-on assets. Some studies even speculated that both cryptocurrencies and gold might begin displacing fiat currencies in central bank reserves. Gold and Bitcoin Price Dynamics The trend of dedollarization accelerated after the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the freezing of the Bank of Russia's reserves, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar's share in global reserves. At the same time, gold's share rose and even surpassed that of the euro. According to Deutsche Bank, this trend is likely to continue, with cryptocurrencies expected to join precious metals in gaining ground. Comparisons are being drawn to the post-crisis era of 2010, when central banks became net buyers of gold. Dissenting views remain. JP Morgan believes widespread adoption of stablecoins will actually increase global demand for the U.S. dollar by $1.4 trillion by 2027. Euphoria seldom ends well. On the futures market, bets were heavily concentrated on BTC/USD reaching $140,000 by year-end. Now, bulls may need to dial back their ambitions—unless, of course, Trump's 100% tariff plan turns out to be just another bluff. The U.S. president has frequently walked back on his threats, giving rise to the so-called "TACO" trading theory—"Trump Always Caves Out." Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin has begun to recover as the U.S. administration signals its readiness to negotiate with China. Will China be willing to talk? That remains the key question. Beijing currently controls the supply chain for rare-earth minerals and key battery materials—resources vital to U.S. data centers that underpin artificial intelligence infrastructure. Technical AnalysisOn the daily BTC/USD chart, an inside bar has formed, followed by a rejection from resistance at fair value. As long as quotes remain below $115,600, the technical bias favors selling. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The BNB price has staged a powerful recovery, surging over 16% to trade past $1,350, outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum as optimism builds around an imminent spot ETF approval and renewed confidence in the Binance ecosystem. The rally comes after a sharp sell-off triggered by geopolitical tensions earlier this month, followed by an aggressive rebound fueled by whale accumulation and institutional inflows. According to CoinGlass, daily trading volume jumped 55% to $10.7 billion, while open interest rose 25%, signaling fresh leveraged positions betting on continued upside momentum. BNB’s sharp turnaround mirrors broader market stabilization but with stronger conviction. Traders are now eyeing a move toward $1,450–$1,500, a region that would mark a new all-time high for the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. CZ Attributes BNB Price Rally to Genuine Market Demand Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) weighed in on the rally, emphasizing that BNB’s recent strength comes from organic market demand, not artificial liquidity support. “BNB has no market makers,” he stated, adding that the price recovery reflects the community’s belief, builder activity, and deflationary mechanisms that continue to burn tokens. CZ also praised BNB Chain ecosystem contributors such as Venus and Binance, who “took hundreds of millions out of their own pockets to protect users” during the recent volatility, a move he described as a demonstration of “different value systems.” His comments helped solidify investor sentiment, with analysts noting that CZ’s transparency about internal market structure has reassured traders that BNB’s rally is fundamentally driven rather than speculative. The token’s deflationary model and sustained ecosystem utility continue to underpin long-term confidence. Can BNB Break $1,500 Next? From a technical standpoint, BNB’s breakout above $1,236 resistance has activated bullish momentum, with the RSI hovering near 65, showing strong but not overbought conditions. MACD crossover and robust volume spikes point to further upside potential. A close above $1,349 (the October 7 high) could propel the token toward $1,400–$1,452, with the next key psychological milestone at $1,500. Support remains firm at $1,192–$1,220, providing a cushion against short-term volatility. Analysts caution that while BNB’s momentum is strong, profit-taking around the $1,350–$1,400 zone could lead to brief consolidation before the next leg higher. Cover image from ChatGPT, BNBUSD chart from Tradingview

Vale (NYSE: VALE) and locomotive manufacturer Wabtec Corporation announced a partnership on Monday to develop studies on a dual-fuel engine that can use both diesel and a mixture of diesel and ethanol. The studies will initially be conducted in a laboratory to validate the concept and evaluate performance, emissions reduction, and the ethanol/diesel substitution rate, the miner said. The studies and tests are expected to take place by 2027, for evaluation of future use in the Vitória-Minas Railway (EFVM) fleet, in Southeastern Brazil. The agreement to use ethanol, a renewable fuel that replaces fossil diesel, is part of a series of joint initiatives with Wabtec to advance Vale’s railway operations decarbonization program. Last March, the companies announced an agreement to purchase 50 locomotives equipped with Evolution Series engines, prepared to operate with up to 25% biodiesel mixed with diesel. In the coming years, Vale and Wabtec said they will conduct a series of tests in an attempt to further increase this percentage.  “Innovative initiatives such as these, for the adoption of alternative fuels in our locomotives, are part of Vale’s commitment to accelerate the decarbonization of our rail network,” Vale EVP, Operations Carlos Medeiros said in a news release. “In 2024, Vale’s rail network accounted for 14% of the company’s carbon emissions.”

JPMorgan Chase on Monday launched its Security and Resiliency Initiative, committing up to $1.5 trillion over 10 years to strengthen US supply chains, with chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon emphasising critical minerals essential for national security. Expanding from a prior $1 trillion goal, the plan addresses vulnerabilities exposed by geopolitical risks and overreliance on foreign sources. Central to the effort is a $10 billion direct investment pool for equity and venture capital in US-based firms. Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said: “It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing, all of which are essential for our national security.” The initiative targets 27 sub-areas, including mining, refining, solar and nuclear energy, battery storage and munitions. JPMorgan will provide tailored financing, advisory services, and partnerships to scale domestic production Dimon added: “This new initiative includes efforts like ensuring reliable access to… critical minerals.” To execute, the bank with $4.6 trillion in assets and $357 billion in stockholders’ equity will hire field experts, form an advisory council with industry leaders, and advocate for streamlined permitting, reduced regulations and red tape – long a major obstacle hindering new mining projects in the US.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 11 Markets kicked off the week with a TACO rebound — Trump Always Chickens Out — following a bloodshed Friday that briefly ended the euphoric “everything rally.” Last week closed with fearful price action after days of relentless gains. US–China trade war tensions resurfaced, shaking risk sentiment and triggering a massive wave of crypto liquidations that saw some altcoins plunge 40–70%, while ETH and Bitcoin wicked down nearly 20% around 16:45 ET on Friday. But sentiment turned fast. A calming post from President Trump downplaying the severity of the trade spat helped markets breathe again over the weekend. Crypto staged a spectacular comeback, dragging US equity futures higher in a classic “weekend reversal”. Most traditional markets — the US, Japan, and Canada — were closed, but futures trading didn’t miss a beat. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments were equally supportive. A major peace summit in Egypt produced concrete progress in the Israel–Hamas ceasefire deal, including hostage and prisoner releases, marking a breakthrough moment for Middle East stability. By Monday’s open, risk appetite was fully restored: Dow futures up 1.25%, Russell +2.6%, and Gold and Silver surging to fresh all-time highs, as markets cheered the combination of cooling geopolitical risks and resilient optimism across assets. Read More:US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand now But sentiment turned fast. A calming post from President Trump downplaying the severity of the trade spat helped markets breathe again over the weekend. Crypto loved the Trump post, sparking a spectacular comeback which also preceded a US equity futures higher in a classic weekend reversal. Volumes were down a lot with US, Japan, and Canada Markets closed, but futures trading didn’t miss the beat. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments were equally supportive of a risk-on session. A major peace summit in Egypt produced concrete progress in the Israel–Hamas ceasefire deal, including hostage and prisoner releases, marking a breakthrough moment for Middle East stability. Some awkward points still need to be seen for a stable implementation of the deal, but this remains a decent start. As the daily session closes, risk appetite was fully restored: Dow futures close up 1.25%, with the Russell leading US Futures at +2.6%. Gold and Silver also surged to fresh all-time highs, as markets cheered the combination of the renewed trade tensions. Read More: A EUR/USD guide on how long-term trends reverseMarkets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdownCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView You can spot how spectacular the Sunday Globex open led a huge reversal higher for most assets. US Oil had gapped down below the $60 mark over the weekend, suffering from the lower global trade outlook and might be an interesting trade to follow this week. Will the energy commodity come back higher if the US-China beef settles down? Also keep an eye on the metals trade that maintain their trend higher. A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 13 – Source: OANDA Labs A much less volatile FX day compared to Friday but still very erratic. Look at how many crosses happened in all majors in this sudden rebalancing. Most of the highest volume markets were off today so the real week starts tomorrow. Nonetheless, the AUD finishes higher again and the CAD lower – another 2025 classic. A look at Economic data releasing through Sunday evening and Monday's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Markets didn't get many headlines from the IMF meeting which doesn't tend to be a huge market mover but still keep an eye on key speeches. The UK labour report kicks off the session at 2:00 AM ET with wages and employment figures releasing. A Europe-only data release follows with German ZEW surveys and an ECB speech, providing insight into confidence across the bloc. With US data still not releasing due to the Government shutdown, focus returns on Central Bank speakers, where Federal Reserve Chair Powell, Bailey, and multiple Fed speakers will create some suspense in the North American Session. The evening wraps up with China CPI and PPI prints, crucial for assessing deflationary pressures and global demand sentiment heading into midweek. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A crypto analyst has sparked fresh discussions on X social media after pointing out an eerie similarity between the current XRP price structure and its 2017 setup. Back then, the cryptocurrency experienced a sudden flash crash on Binance, dropping from $0.36 to $0.001 before soaring tens of thousands of percent to its all-time highs just weeks later. XRP Mirrors Flash Crash Setup From 2017 A new technical analysis by a crypto market expert known as ‘Guy on the Earth’ on X recalls December 2017, when XRP faced an alleged rug pull moment from Binance, which sent its price into a sharp, temporary collapse before igniting one of the most powerful bull runs in its history. His chart shows a dramatic flash crash that saw the XRP price drop more than 99% from $0.36 to $0.001 before experiencing an explosive breakout that took it to record levels above $3.00 in early 2018. The analyst notes that this same structure appears to be forming once again on the XRP chart. The setup comes at a time when XRP faced one of its most drastic price declines in years, falling from $0.24 to $0.80 last week during a widespread market liquidation that saw almost all major cryptocurrencies in the red. Following the crash, reports from crypto members revealed that exchanges had allegedly refused retail investors from buying during the dip. Although XRP has since recovered from the severe crash, back up to $2.5 at the time of writing, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, echoing the uncertainty of late 2017 before the broader market entered its euphoric phase. Notably, the analyst acknowledged that the main difference between the current market and that of 2017 is the prevailing market sentiment following recent corrections—a disposition that could be described as post-crash fatigue. However, the XRP price chart still shows striking parallels to the earlier cycle. The analyst notes that his short-term bias is for a slight recovery, followed by another major flush, before a possible repeat of XRP’s parabolic move eight years ago. XRP Macro Outlook Still Bullish In a separate analysis, crypto market expert XForceGlobal presented a long-term outlook for XRP, showing an extended Elliott Wave count that suggests the cryptocurrency remains bullish on the macro timeframe. His chart shows that XRP had formed a multi-year consolidation triangle between 2021 and 2024. According to him, XRP is following a unique pattern called the “Flat route.” XForceGlobal noted that the cryptocurrency appears to have completed its second corrected leg and is now within the confirmation stage of a renewed uptrend. He highlights that, from a timing standpoint, XRP is in a favorable position for a continuation, predicting an initial surge to $3.30, followed by a powerful breakout toward $24 in Wave 3 and a potential peak around $34 in Wave 5. Still, he cautions that any sustained drop below $0.6 could invalidate this bullish setup.

It is natural for traders to fade the trend. Seeking value, one expects that elevated prices after a steep uptrend mean overpriced and low prices after a big correction always mean underpriced. Looking for value is something natural for the Homo Economicus. When we go to the store, we are looking for discounts. But with Markets, discounts don't always translate well with good trades. The steep uptrend in EURUSD from January to the 1st of July brought the pair from 1.01 (close to parity) to 1.18 in a spectacular move. Those who bet on a reversal then initially got proven right, with the pair falling 4,000 pips during the same month. But, those who were expecting a full downtrend to form got met with a slap in the face. From end-July to the September FOMC meeting, the pair actually consolidated and went to break new yearly highs – Currently at 1.19188. Such a strong uptrend usually leaves banks and algorithms looking for spots to re-enter the trend. These strong flows lead to consolidation and continuation of the trend. Now turning to today – A bearish divergence double-top made at the new yearly highs is following with what resembles a longer-run correction. The lesson ? Strong trends often don't reverse in one shot – Double tops tend to be more accurate signals and the same works on all timeframes. Let's explore a multi-timeframe EUR/USD analysis to look into the details. Read More: US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowGold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the DayMarkets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdownEUR/USD multi-timeframe analysisWeekly Chart EUR/USD Weekly Chart, October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView The 2025 rise got met with a two-wave top before the ongoing correction move formed. As can be observed, the uptrend was spectacular in EUR/USD throughout the first six months of trading with the first move, almost uninterrupted, leading to a +16.40% move in a tight bull weekly channel. The key to spot on the weekly chart, is how momentum did not follow the second wave to the new highs which happened very fast. For those who did not witness the move that formed the new 2025 peak in the pair, a flash US dollar pair right before the September FOMC meeting on low volumes led to the current 1.19188 wick. A lack of consistency, time and volume in the second move is typically where divergences form, and this one was no exception. After the divergence, players tend to require confirmation with price action: A long-top doji got followed by a lower weekly candle for the last week of September, leading to a break of the 2025 steep uptrend. Daily Chart EUR/USD Daily Chart, October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, we see how the September 17 price extremes got met with sharp rejection. Breaking through multiple levels in a more progressive fashion than the end-July correction, the price action has formed a downward channel. About that first 4,000 pip correction in end-July, keep in mind in any trend reversal that happens in a sudden crash tends to be met with consequent dip-buying. Emergency selloffs/steep squeezes tend to not be sustainable moves but still mark a change of sentiment in the price action (which tends to scare the most leveraged participants the most). If the trend resumes after, the price action might be less clear; exactly what happened between August to mid-September. Downward channels tend to be more resilient due to their consistent and progressive speed. 4H Chart and levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Keep an eye on the bearish cross between the 4H MA 50 and 200. A rebound at the immediate support would be an important checkpoint for bulls to maintain – the mid-line of the downward channel tends to be spots to monitor. On the other hand, a break of the immediate support should engage a further continuation of the selloff. Levels of interest for EUR/USD trading: Resistance Levels: 1.1630 Intermediate Pivot1.1750 mini-resistanceMain resistance 1.18 to 1.18301.19188 2025 highsSep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneSupport Levels: 1.1560 to 1.16 support (immediate support)1.1470 Pivotal Support1.1350 to 1.14 Main Support August 1st lows at 1.13916 Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A long-dormant Bitcoin stash moved into an exchange this week, renewing worries about old coins re-entering the market and the effect that could have on prices. Mt. Gox Origins And Staggering Returns According to blockchain tracker Lookonchain, a cluster of addresses tied to coins pulled from Mt. Gox more than 13 years ago sent 300 BTC to Binance in a single transaction. Those coins were reportedly bought at about $11 each, meaning the original outlay was roughly $8,151. The transfer is now worth about $33.47 million, a mark-up of roughly 410,624%. Reports have disclosed that about 590 BTC still remain in the same group of addresses. Wallet Activity And What Changed Last year, the same owner moved 159 BTC into a new wallet and then left it untouched. This recent move is different because the coins arrived in an exchange hot wallet, where they can be sold quickly. Traders and market watchers noted the difference: one action kept coins on the chain, the other put them within reach of an order book. Whether the owner chooses to sell some or all of the 300 BTC is not known, but the presence of those funds on Binance makes rapid selling possible. Market Moves And Flows Bitcoin’s price recovered to about $115,000 on Monday, after dipping to $102,000 on Friday. That drop triggered billions in liquidations and left traders on edge. Based on figures, ETFs recorded $2.7 billion in inflows over the last week, and institutional demand showed resilience despite the volatility. Still, the market’s calm is fragile; a large sell order from an old holder could change short-term supply dynamics quickly. The move was flagged by on-chain analysts and then amplified across social platforms. Exchange inflows from wallets tied to early-era miners or Mt. Gox addresses tend to draw attention because they signal supply that was previously dormant coming back into circulation. In this case, the numbers are large enough to get traders’ attention. Possible Scenarios And Risks If some of the 300 BTC is sold, price pressure may increase, particularly during thin trading windows. Alternatively, the transfer could be part of estate consolidation or a decision to move funds to cold storage, in which case selling may not follow. Market participants will watch wallet behavior closely: rapid withdrawals to multiple exchange addresses, for example, would likely be interpreted as a selling sign. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin heads into the new week with a clean catalyst: the White House’s tariff brinkmanship with China and a market structure that just absorbed the largest crypto liquidation on record. Markets have marched through the tariff cycle almost beat-for-beat, and as of Monday we are squarely at Step 8 of The Kobeissi Letter’s template: the post-open reassurance from Treasury. The sequence since late week ties cleanly to the blueprint Kobeissi published after “10 months analyzing EVERY single tariff development,” which it summarized as an “EXACT playbook for investors.” Bitcoin Weekly Preview In their words: “1) Trump puts out cryptic post… 2) Trump announces large tariff rate (50%+) and markets crash… 4) After the market closes on Friday, President Trump doubles down… 5) On Saturday, the target… responds… 6) On Sunday… Trump posts an announcement saying he is working on a solution… 7) Futures open… higher Sunday… 8) After the Monday open, Treasury Secretary Bessent appears on live TV and reassures investors… 9–10) over the next 2–4 weeks, officials tease a deal, then announce one, and stocks hit a record high. 11) Repeat.” The Friday crash is the fulcrum. After President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports by November 1, risk assets lurched lower into the US close, with the S&P 500 off 2.7% and the Nasdaq down 3.6% on the day; Bitcoin and the entire crypto suffered the largest single-day liquidation in its history, with roughly $19 billion in positions wiped out across venues. The trigger, size, and timing map precisely to Step 2’s “announce large tariff rate… and markets crash to shake out weak positions,” followed by Step 3’s failed bounce and fresh lows as forced selling cascaded through perps and basis. The weekend then advanced the script. Between late Friday and Saturday, the White House and Beijing traded barbs — the “double down” and counter-response embedded in Steps 4 and 5. Coverage detailed the 100%-tariff threat and China’s vow of “corresponding measures,” underscoring that the policy shock was real rather than rhetorical. On Sunday, Trump abruptly eased his tone, writing on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!! Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Rally Still Looks Intact, CryptoQuant Says: Here’s Why Futures duly bounced Sunday evening, consistent with Step 6’s “working on a solution” message and Step 7’s gap-higher open. “Bitcoin extends gains to +5% on the day and reclaims $115,000. Ethereum is now up +11% on the day and is 4% away from pre-liquidation levels seen on October 10th,” the analyst added via X on late Sunday. Today, the Bitcoin and financial markets will be watching the administration’s communications cadence shifting from escalation to stabilization, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doing the media rounds to frame risks, policy intent, and the negotiation path. Notably, this is not unprecedented: Bessent has repeatedly used live TV to pour oil on troubled waters during tariff flare-ups, a pattern documented across months of interviews and official transcripts, and consistent with Kobeissi’s “after the Monday open… [Bessent] appears on live TV and reassures investors.” The point for traders is not the theatrics; it is the systematic sequence of message-induced flows that tends to follow. The bottom line for this week is to let the tariff playbook dictate the rhythm. As The Kobeissi Letter put it, 2025 is a market where “Headlines and posts are now able to move trillions of dollars of market cap in a matter of minutes,” and where “the ability to remain objective and capitalize on emotional swings in the market is alpha in 2025.” Bitcoin’s structural bull drivers didn’t vanish in Friday’s flush, but the path from here will be written by policy posts. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $113,9979

At the start of the new week on Monday, the Japanese yen appears vulnerable amid a combination of negative factors. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 in response to Beijing's plans to restrict exports of rare earth metals. Vice President J.D. Vance backed this stance, warning that any aggressive actions by China would trigger even tougher retaliatory measures from the United States. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce stated that it would defend national interests if the U.S. persisted with new tariff pressure. The escalation in rhetoric cast doubt on the possibility of a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year, increasing market uncertainty and temporarily strengthening the yen as a safe-haven asset. However, Trump later sought to ease concerns, posting on Truth Social that China's economy is doing fine and that the U.S. seeks cooperation, not harm. He stressed that both sides want to avoid economic casualties, which triggered a renewed wave of risk-on sentiment and led to a weakening of the yen on Monday. At the same time, Japan's Komeito party broke off its 26-year alliance with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), casting doubt on Sanae Takaichi's bid to become Japan's first female prime minister. This development further weighed on the yen, helping push the USD/JPY pair above the key psychological level of 152.00. Traders continue to price in the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike before the end of the year, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is attempting to recover from Friday's decline. The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, remains unresolved. Due to the lack of a budget agreement, Trump has announced the first wave of federal employee layoffs. This adds to investor caution, prompting dollar bulls to adopt a more restrained stance and limiting optimism for the pair. From a technical standpoint, with positive oscillators on the daily chart, new long positions should be considered only after a breakout above 152.45. In this case, prices could advance toward the round level of 153.00, facing some resistance near 152.70. On the other hand, Friday's low around 151.15 serves as immediate support. A move below the 151.00 level could push the USD/JPY pair toward 150.70. A deeper corrective decline could extend to the psychological level of 150.00, which would act as a key reversal area. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has started to transform. It's still too early to conclude that the upward section of the trend has been canceled, but the recent decline in the euro has made it necessary to refine the wave count. Now we can see a series of three-wave structures a–b–c. It can be assumed that they are part of the larger wave 4 within the upward trend segment. In this case, wave 4 has taken on an unnaturally extended form, but overall, the wave pattern remains coherent. The construction of the bullish trend segment continues, and the news background continues to support mostly everything but the U.S. dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is ongoing. The confrontation with the Federal Reserve continues. The market's dovish expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate are rising. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown is still in effect. The market evaluates Trump's first 7–8 months in office rather poorly, even though GDP growth in Q2 reached almost 4%. In my view, the formation of the upward trend is not yet complete. Its potential targets extend up to the 1.25 level. Based on this, the euro may continue to decline for some time, even without any strong fundamental reasons (as has been the case for the past two weeks). However, the wave count will still retain its internal logic. The EUR/USD pair declined by 50 basis points on Monday, and it became clear — the movement isn't over yet. As noted in my previous reviews, the news background and the wave structure have not been aligning well lately. Now that the wave pattern has changed slightly, this conflict is gone. We are observing the formation of a third consecutive corrective three-wave structure, so the decline may continue within wave c, which itself belongs to a larger wave c of the major wave 4. However, even in this case, the fundamental backdrop raises doubts about the dollar's ability to continue appreciating. What news came out on Monday? Essentially, none. Over the weekend, Donald Trump reassured markets, saying that "everything will be fine" with China. On Friday, the U.S. president announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports in response to Beijing tightening export controls on rare earth metals. Yet by Sunday, he claimed he had no intention of triggering a Great Depression for America's trading partner. Trump's statement can be interpreted in two ways. On the one hand, he is giving China a chance to reconsider its decision and trying to ease tensions. On the other hand, he is making it clear that if China doesn't change its stance, new tariffs will follow. Beijing officials have already warned the White House that tariffs are not the best solution in any dispute if the goal is long-term peace and trade stability. However, Trump knows no other negotiation tools. Therefore, in my view, the world has witnessed yet another Trump ultimatum, not an attempt at reconciliation. And how could reconciliation even be possible if Trump has been pressuring China for a second presidential term in a row? General ConclusionsBased on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues building an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still depends heavily on the news background — particularly Trump's decisions and the foreign and domestic policies of the new White House administration. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. At present, the market is forming a corrective wave 4, which is approaching completion, though it has taken on a complex shape. The bullish wave structure remains valid. Consequently, in the near term, I continue to focus only on long positions, even though the downward a–b–c pattern is not yet finished. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise toward 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci extension. On a smaller scale, the entire upward segment of the trend is visible. The wave pattern is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, major wave 2 is smaller than internal wave 2 within wave 3 — though this occasionally happens. I remind you that it's best to identify clear, recognizable structures on charts rather than trying to label every single wave. The current upward formation looks quite solid overall. Core Principles of My Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.If there is no confidence in what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.There is never 100% certainty about price direction — always use Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Today, gold set another all-time high, moving toward the next psychological level of $4,100, supported by a strong fundamental backdrop. Investor sentiment toward risk assets deteriorated sharply late last week after President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and tighten export controls on key software starting November 1. Beijing responded by criticizing Washington for its "double standards" and hinted at unspecified countermeasures should the U.S. threats be implemented, stressing that it is not afraid of a potential trade war. However, over the weekend, Trump softened his rhetoric, stating on Truth Social that the U.S. is not interested in harming China's economy, and that both sides aim to avoid economic losses. Despite this, the renewed tension raises doubts about the possibility of a Trump–Xi Jinping meeting later this year, which helped push gold prices to new record highs on Monday. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown is likely to drag on, as Congress still fails to reach an agreement on a funding plan. A Senate vote is scheduled only for Tuesday, and House leaders have signaled no willingness to compromise with the opposition. Trump has blamed Democrats for the furlough of thousands of federal employees, who received formal notifications on Friday. While aboard Air Force One, President Trump also warned of the possible delivery of Tomahawk long-range missiles to Ukraine if Russia does not end the conflict, emphasizing that such a move would mark a new stage of aggression. Moscow, in turn, warned Kyiv against receiving the missiles. This situation further fuels geopolitical tensions and boosts gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in October and December is currently estimated at 96% and 87%, respectively. This strengthens the bullish outlook for gold, driven by reduced demand for the U.S. dollar and low liquidity due to a bank holiday in the U.S. From a technical perspective, Friday's rebound from the $3,944 level and the uptrend support line, which coincides with the 9-day EMA, favors the bulls. However, overbought oscillators on the daily chart suggest the potential for short-term consolidation or a minor pullback before the next leg higher. Any corrective decline below the $4,035–4,025 level is likely to attract new buyers near the $4,000 psychological level, helping to limit downward pressure toward the 9-day EMA, which aligns with the ascending channel support near $3,970. A decisive break below this line, however, would trigger technical selling, opening the way toward the $3,900 round level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

At the start of the new week, the AUD/JPY pair opened with a bullish gap, partially offsetting Friday's decline of more than 250 points. Domestic political instability in Japan is undermining the yen's status as a safe-haven asset and has become an important factor driving the pair higher. The Komeito Party has ended its 26-year coalition with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), jeopardizing Sanae Takaichi's ambitions to become Japan's first female prime minister. This adds uncertainty and could delay the Bank of Japan's plans to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, Donald Trump backed away from his threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, stating on his Truth Social account that the U.S. does not want to harm China. He added that China's economy will be fine and that both countries seek to avoid serious losses. These comments helped ease fears of an escalation in the U.S.-China trade conflict, improving risk sentiment, weighing on the yen, and creating favorable conditions for the Australian dollar, which often serves as a proxy currency for China. Despite this, Chinese trade data had little impact on the pair's bullish momentum. In September, China's trade surplus fell to 645.47 billion yuan, down from 732.7 billion in the previous month. Meanwhile, imports rose 7.5% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 1.7%, and exports increased 8.4% compared to 4.8% in July. The Australian dollar also received additional support from the hawkish tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The central bank indicated that inflation in the third quarter could exceed forecasts made during its August meeting. Furthermore, the RBA emphasized the need for additional time to assess the effects of the 75 basis-point rate cuts implemented in 2025. These statements strengthen expectations of further appreciation in the AUD/JPY pair, although speculation about a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in the coming months may limit the upside. From a technical standpoint, the oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, and the 9-day EMA is above the 14-day EMA, confirming a bullish outlook. However, for a stronger bullish confirmation, prices must break above the 99.00 psychological level, followed by resistance near 99.37, paving the way toward the key psychological level at 100.00. The pair has found support at the 14-day EMA, with the next support level seen around 98.45. A move below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook and could push prices down toward the 98.00 round level, below which bearish momentum would likely intensify. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Today, Monday, the pair is trading in a sideways consolidation with a slight bullish bias, supported by dovish expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates, which are keeping the U.S. dollar under pressure. Global risk appetite has increased notably after U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from his threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1. This comes amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut lending rates two more times this year, as well as concerns over a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which negatively affects the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset. In addition, expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of the year are creating favorable conditions for the British pound, providing further support to the GBP/USD pair. From a technical perspective, Friday's break above the 1.3325 level confirms the likelihood of further intraday upside. However, the negative oscillators on the daily chart suggest that traders should wait for a stronger confirmation beyond the resistance level near 1.3370 before entering new long positions. Once that resistance is cleared, the GBP/USD pair could break through the psychological 1.3400 level and extend its rally toward the next resistance level at 1.3420–1.3425. On the other hand, the 1.3330–1.3325 level now acts as immediate support, shielding the pair from further decline ahead of the 1.3300 round level and the multi-month low near 1.3260 reached on Friday. A sustained move below Friday's low would pave the way for a continuation of the downtrend from the September high near 1.3725 toward the 1.3200 level. This would be followed closely by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) located around 1.3180–1.3175, the decisive break of which would serve as a fresh bearish signal. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro may once again come under pressure after French President Emmanuel Macron made yet another unsuccessful attempt late last week to urge the deeply divided French parliament to ensure stability in the country rather than provoke another government collapse. On Sunday, the French president announced the formation of a new cabinet. The new (and former) prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, must now urgently resolve the protracted political crisis by passing the budget. However, he already failed to do so once before, and it is clear that Macron's refusal to make major concessions to his political opponents once again puts the prime minister's future at risk. Lecornu, who was appointed to the post in September, resigned last week, and was reappointed on Friday. Tomorrow, he will address the National Assembly for the first time as prime minister to present his budget and explain which parts of the president's program he is prepared to sacrifice in order to remain in power. The political crisis, which erupted after the summer elections, has paralyzed the legislative process. Without an approved budget, France risks procedural chaos — frozen expenditures, delayed social payments, and a loss of investor confidence. Lecornu, whose reputation is built on compromise, must now navigate between the austerity measures demanded by Brussels and the social concessions needed to appease labor unions. "It is everyone's duty to work for stability, not bet on instability," Macron said. "I ask everyone to pull themselves together and get to work — with both discipline and respect." It is clear that Lecornu must find a delicate balance among the warring opposition parties in order to withstand pressure from the far right and far left, both of which are calling for snap elections. To achieve this, the prime minister needs to convince both the Socialists and the Republicans to abstain from voting on a no-confidence motion. Senior figures from both factions expressed outrage over the weekend at Macron's unwillingness to recognize how precarious his position has become, or to abandon his most controversial policies. Socialist leader Olivier Faure said in an interview with La Tribune Dimanche over the weekend that the most likely outcome would be Lecornu's failure. Both of Lecornu's predecessors — Michel Barnier and Francois Bayrou — were forced to resign following no-confidence votes triggered by budget disputes. According to experts, the Socialist Party now demands a complete revision of Macron's economic program — including the suspension of the pension reform that raised the retirement age, higher taxes on the wealthy, and permission to increase deficit spending. Centrist and center-right lawmakers oppose such radical measures, although it remains unclear whether they are prepared to vote against the government. Another government collapse would likely trigger new sell-offs of risk assets, including the euro. Technical Outlook for EUR/USD As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1630 level. Only this would open the way for a test of 1.1660. From there, the pair could attempt a climb toward 1.1690, though doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The ultimate target stands at the 1.1720 level. In case of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only near 1.1590. If no large buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1545 low or consider opening long positions from around 1.1510. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

At a regular press conference on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that if the United States continues on its current path, China will firmly take all necessary measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests. He emphasized that China strongly urges Washington to immediately cease its improper actions, and calls on the United States to adhere to the principles of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. This statement followed a threat made by U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1. The market reaction was not globally negative. Sentiment remains supported by easing concerns over an escalation in the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies — the U.S. and China. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has partially recovered from Friday's losses, while Dow Jones futures show a confident intraday gain of more than 1%. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The price test of 152.04 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 45 points. Since the second half of the day will not bring any significant U.S. economic releases, it's reasonable to assume that major market participants will act more cautiously. Market fluctuations will continue to be driven by news related to U.S.–China relations. In the current environment, even a minor report concerning trade relations could instantly affect financial markets. Therefore, traders and investors are expected to remain on high alert, ready to react quickly to the slightest changes in statements or policies from either side. It's also important to remember why the Japanese yen weakened throughout the previous week. If the new trade conflict is quickly resolved, pressure on the yen could soon return, reinforced by ongoing domestic political tensions in Japan. As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy Signal Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 152.34 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 152.73 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 152.73, I intend to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point retracement from that level. You can expect further pair growth as part of the ongoing upward trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 152.10 twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 152.34 and 152.73 can then be expected. Sell Signal Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 152.10 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 151.65, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return if trade relations worsen.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 152.34 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 152.10 and 151.65 can then be expected. Chart Notes Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;Thick green line – approximate level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;Thick red line – approximate level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important Note Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes. And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com