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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)On Monday, from the level of 1.1650 (the closing price of Friday's daily candle), the market may begin an upward movement with the target at 1.1710 — the 23.6% retracement level (red dashed line). Upon reaching this level, a downward movement is possible toward 1.1686 — the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart) Comprehensive Analysis:Indicator analysis — upwardFibonacci levels — upwardVolume — upwardCandlestick analysis — upwardTrend analysis — upwardBollinger Bands — upwardWeekly chart — upwardOverall conclusion: Upward trend. Alternative Scenario: From the level of 1.1650 (the closing price of Friday's daily candle), the price may begin an upward movement toward 1.1689 — the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, a corrective downward move is possible toward 1.1765 — the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Brief Analysis: The current upward wave structure of the British pound's main pair has been developing since the beginning of the year. Within the wave structure, a complex correction in the form of an extended horizontal flat has been forming since late June. The correction structure has entered its final phase, but as of the time of analysis, no signs of completion have appeared. Weekly Forecast: During the upcoming week, the pair's price is expected to move within the channel between the nearest opposing zones. At the start of the week, a bullish direction is more probable. Pressure on the calculated resistance zone is possible, including a brief breakout above its upper limit. Toward the end of the week, the likelihood of a directional reversal and the start of a decline increases. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 1.3490 / 1.3540Support: 1.3220 / 1.3170Recommendations: Sell: Possible after reversal signals appear near the resistance zone, using a fractional volume for intraday trading.Buy: Possible within individual sessions using a reduced volume size.AUD/USD Brief Analysis: The Australian dollar's major pair continues moving "north" on the price chart. The current incomplete downward segment has been developing since late September. Within it, over the past ten days, the price has been forming a flat correction that remains unfinished as of the time of analysis. Quotes are near the upper boundary of a strong support zone. Weekly Forecast: In the next couple of days, the pair's price is expected to move sideways, forming conditions for a trend reversal. Pressure on the support zone is possible. A reversal can be expected closer to the end of the week. A move above the calculated resistance zone within the coming week is unlikely. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 0.6550 / 0.6600Support: 0.6460 / 0.6410Recommendations: Buy: Will become relevant after confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone.Sell: High-risk, potentially unprofitable.USD/CHF Brief Analysis: The current wave structure of the Swiss franc's major pair is directed upward. It began on April 11 and has been developing mostly within a sideways plane. On the larger daily chart, this segment represents a reversal of the previous trend. Quotes are moving within a horizontal price channel. Weekly Forecast: At the beginning of the upcoming week, the sideways movement is likely to continue. A decline toward the support zone is possible. Closer to the weekend, the probability of a reversal and a resumption of price growth increases. The resistance zone aligns with the lower boundary of the potential reversal zone on the 4-hour time frame. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 0.8080 / 0.8130Support: 0.7850 / 0.7800Recommendations: Sell: Can be used for short-term trading with a reduced volume size.Buy: Will become possible after reversal signals appear near the support zone on your trading systems.EUR/JPY Brief Analysis: Since late February of this year, the direction of the euro/yen pair has been defined by an upward wave. Within its structure, during the final part (C), an intermediate correction has been forming for the past two weeks. Throughout this period, the price has been moving sideways within the boundaries of a large-scale potential reversal zone. Weekly Forecast: At the start of the upcoming week, the pair's price is expected to continue its sideways movement along the calculated support boundary. Afterwards, a reversal and the beginning of price growth can be expected. The resistance zone marks the most probable upper boundary of the pair's weekly range. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 179.50 / 180.00Support: 175.00 / 174.50Recommendations: Sell: No potential.Buy: Will become relevant after confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone.#Ethereum Brief Analysis: As a result of a multi-month uptrend, Ethereum's price has reached the boundaries of a wide large-scale potential reversal zone. Since late summer, quotes have been declining from an intermediate resistance level. Within this movement, the final part (C) has been developing in a sideways pattern over recent weeks. Weekly Forecast: Throughout the coming week, Ethereum's price is expected to move within the channel between opposing zones. Early in the week, a sideways trend is likely, with a possible upward vector. A reversal and resumption of the decline may occur closer to the weekend. A breakout of the calculated zones within the week is unlikely. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 3870.00 / 3970.00Support: 3600.00 / 3500.00Recommendations: Sell: Will become relevant after confirmed reversal signals appear near the resistance zone.Buy: Risky, with low potential.Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A–B–C). In each time frame, the analysis focuses on the last, incomplete wave. Expected movements are shown with dashed lines. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of price movements over time! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As of the previous Friday's close, major US equity indices posted gains: the S&P 500 rose by 0.53%, the Nasdaq 100 advanced by 0.52%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 0.52%. The upward momentum continued into Monday, supported by easing trade concerns and improved market sentiment following recent volatility tied to US regional banking worries. European and Asian markets followed suit, with the Stoxx Europe 600 gaining 0.6%—led by banking stocks—and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index jumping by 1.8%. The emerging markets stock index added 1.4%. French sovereign bonds declined after S&P Global Ratings downgraded the country's credit rating. US Treasuries also fell across the curve, pushing the 10-year yield up one basis point to 4.02%. Gold held steady, while oil prices dropped, extending losses into a third consecutive week. Investor sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to de-escalate trade tensions with China, against a backdrop of stress in US regional bank lending. A new round of US-China trade talks is scheduled this week in Malaysia, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to discuss ways to prevent further escalation. While markets have responded positively to the prospect of dialogue, skepticism remains over the likelihood of a long-term agreement. Economists caution that structural trade issues, such as intellectual property and market access, will not be resolved in a single round. Still, any moderation in rhetoric and openness to compromise is viewed as supportive for global growth and supply chain stability. Notably, Trump recently highlighted rare earth metals, fentanyl, and soybeans as key friction points in the US-China relationship. Regarding France, which I mentioned earlier, rating agency S&P Global Ratings downgraded the country from AA- to A+, stating that the nation's fiscal uncertainty has increased. Within just one month, France has lost its AA rating from two of the three major credit assessors, potentially forcing some funds with ultra-strict investment criteria to sell the country's bonds. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions are escalating again. Israel struck Hamas in the Gaza Strip and reportedly suspended all humanitarian aid shipments on Sunday, accusing Hamas of orchestrating a deadly ambush that killed two soldiers. As for the S&P 500's technical picture, buyers' main task today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,697. This would demonstrate strength and open the possibility of a push toward the $6,711 mark. An equally important priority for bulls will be maintaining control above $6,727, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,682. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,672 and open the path toward $6,660. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Analysis: Within the framework of the dominant bullish trend on the euro chart, a counter-wave has been developing since late August, which remains within the bounds of a correction. At the time of analysis, the structure of this wave is incomplete. Its middle part (B) is nearing completion. The price has bounced off strong resistance. Forecast: In the coming week, after a period of consolidation, the downward vector is expected to continue. In the first few days, a brief rise is possible, with potential pressure on the upper resistance zone. Afterwards, a reversal and resumption of the bearish course of the euro are anticipated. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 1.1720 / 1.1770 Support: 1.1580 / 1.1530 Recommendations: Sell: After reversal signals appear near the resistance area on your trading systems. Buy: Low potential, high risk. USD/JPY Analysis: The dominant upward wave that started in April has brought the pair into a powerful potential reversal zone on the higher time frame. Wave structure analysis shows that a downward segment with reversal potential began about a decade ago. If confirmed, this would signal a change in the short-term trend. Prices are currently squeezed between strong opposing levels. Forecast: The start of the upcoming week is expected to be in a sideways range, with price movement along the support zone. Pressure on this zone is possible, including a brief decline below its lower boundary. In the second half of the week, a trend reversal, increased volatility, and a rise in the pair's price are expected. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 154.60 / 155.10 Support: 150.00 / 149.50 Recommendations: Buy: After confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone. Sell: No suitable conditions in the current market. GBP/JPY Analysis: The incomplete section of the dominant upward trend in the GBP/JPY pair has been developing since September 11. The price has reached the lower boundary of a large-scale potential reversal zone. Within the final segment of the wave, a corrective structure with reversal potential has been forming over the past week. Forecast: In the coming week, the price is expected to continue moving within the corridor between the nearest opposing zones. Early in the week, pressure on the support zone is possible, followed by a reversal and upward movement. The price rise may continue up to the resistance boundaries. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 205.30 / 205.80 Support: 201.20 / 200.70 Recommendations: Sell: Possible with reduced volume size for intraday trading. Buy: After confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone on your trading systems. USD/CAD Analysis: The short-term price direction of the Canadian dollar has been defined by a downward trend since February of this year. In mid-June, quotes reached the upper boundary of a major potential reversal zone. Since then, the pair has been forming an incomplete corrective wave, now in its final phase. Forecast: At the beginning of the upcoming week, continued sideways movement is expected, possibly with a decline along the support level. Then, a reversal and resumption of the pair's upward course are anticipated. The rise may continue up to the calculated resistance zone. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 1.4160 / 1.4210 Support: 1.3900 / 1.3850 Recommendations: Buy: After reversal signals appear near the support zone on your trading systems. Sell: Risky, with low potential. NZD/USD Brief Analysis: Since April, the daily time frame of the New Zealand dollar has been in an upward wave. Over the past three months, however, the pair has been moving mainly downward. The current incomplete correction wave began on July 1. After breaking another strong support level last week, the pair has formed an unfinished horizontal pullback. Weekly Forecast: At the beginning of the coming week, the NZD is expected to continue its sideways movement, with possible pressure on the resistance zone. A reversal is likely later in the week, with the price decline expected toward the support zone. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 0.5760 / 0.5810 Support: 0.5630 / 0.5580 Recommendations: Sell: After confirmed reversal signals appear near the resistance zone. Buy: Risky and potentially unprofitable. GOLD Analysis: The price trend of gold over the past two years has been defined by an upward wave. Since mid-August, an incomplete section of the main trend has been developing upward. At the end of last week, the price bounced off the upper boundary of a broad weekly-scale potential reversal zone. The current downward segment has reversal potential. Forecast: In the coming week, the decline that began last week is expected to continue. The most probable completion area of the decline lies near the calculated support level. Afterwards, a reversal and resumption of the upward course are expected. The weekly rise is limited by the calculated resistance zone. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 4280.0 / 4300.0 Support: 4180.0 / 4160.0 Recommendations: Buy: Limited potential, may be risky. Sell: Premature until confirmed reversal signals appear on your trading systems. Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A–B–C). In each time frame, the analysis focuses on the last, incomplete wave. Expected movements are shown with dashed lines. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of movements over time! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown a notable rebound over the past day. Bitcoin, for example, rose from $106,000 to $111,300, indicating a renewed appetite for risk assets. One of the catalysts for renewed buying was the softening of Donald Trump's rhetoric toward China and ongoing trade tensions—the very issue that triggered last week's widespread sell-off. However, it's important to note that the recovery of the cryptocurrency market is taking place amid persistent global economic uncertainty. Much will depend on the outcome of upcoming trade negotiations between the United States and China, as well as the actions of central banks regarding monetary policy. It is worth recalling that the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates at the end of this month, which could further support the cryptocurrency market. Lower interest rates typically lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, making alternative assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive to investors. Additionally, lower rates stimulate economic activity and investment, which may increase demand for cryptocurrencies as portfolio diversification tools and inflation hedges. However, it's important to recognize that the cryptocurrency market is influenced by a wide range of factors, and the Fed's decision is only one of them. Geopolitical risks, regulatory developments, technological breakthroughs, spot ETF inflows, and investor sentiment all play significant roles in shaping cryptocurrency prices. Therefore, while a rate cut from the Fed could positively impact the market, investors should exercise caution and consider all relevant factors when making investment decisions. As for intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I plan to continue relying on strong intraday pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum with the expectation that the medium-term bull market remains intact. Details of the short-term trading strategy are outlined below: BitcoinBuy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point near $111,600 with a target at $112,700. Around $112,700, I'll exit the buy trade and immediately open a short position on the pullback.Before buying the breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.Scenario 2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary at $110,700 if there is no sustained market reaction to a breakout, with an upside target of $111,600 and $112,700.Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today from the entry point at $110,700 with a target of $109,600. Around $109,600, I'll exit the short position and open a buy on the bounce.Before selling the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.Scenario 2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary at $111,600 if there is no sustained market reaction to the breakout, with targets at $110,700 and $109,600. EthereumBuy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point near $4,089 with a target at $4,155. Around $4,155, I'll exit the buy trade and immediately short on the pullback.Before buying the breakout, confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.Scenario 2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary at $4,042 if there is no reaction to a breakdown, with upside targets at $4,089 and $4,155.Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today from the entry point at $4,042 with a target of $3,967. Around $3,967, I'll exit the short trade and open a buy on the bounce.Before selling the breakout, confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.Scenario 2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary at $4,089 if there is no reaction to the breakout, with downside targets at $4,042 and $3,967.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of Forex Trades and Trading Advice on the Japanese YenA test of the 149.97 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. The U.S. dollar regained part of its ground against the Japanese yen; however, the overall trend remains in favor of yen strength. The fact that the Federal Reserve plans to continue aggressively cutting interest rates puts pressure on the dollar and supports demand for the yen, which is currently of particular interest to traders. Considering the macroeconomic situation in the United States and statements from the Federal Reserve, the dollar is unlikely to regain lost ground in the long term. The absence of fresh U.S. economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown is adding to market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the yen continues to attract investor interest as a safe-haven asset amid global instability. Overall, the outlook for the USD/JPY pair remains bearish and is largely dependent on numerous factors, including the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, the economic situation in both countries, and political risks surrounding Japan's new prime minister. For intraday trading, I plan to rely primarily on Scenarios 1 and 2. Buying ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 150.74 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 151.27 (thick green line on the chart). Near the 151.27 area, I intend to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip corrective movement from that level. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and on significant pullbacks. Note: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.50 level while the MACD is located in the oversold zone. This setup will likely limit downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. Expected targets are 150.74 and 151.27. Selling ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a breakout below 150.50 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 150.02, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip bounce. The higher the sell entry, the better. Note: Before selling, confirm that the MACD is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline. Scenario 2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY today if the price tests the 150.74 level twice in a row while the MACD is in overbought territory. This restricts the pair's upside potential and could lead to a reversal downward. Expected targets are 150.50 and 150.02. Chart Key:Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrumentThick green line – expected price level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profit, beyond which further growth is unlikelyThin red line – entry price for selling the instrumentThick red line – expected price level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profit, beyond which further decline is unlikelyMACD indicator – always refer to overbought or oversold zones before entering the marketImportant Notice for Beginner Traders: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price moves. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit—especially if you lack proper money management and use large trade volumes. Always remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of Forex Trades and Trading Advice on the British PoundA test of the 1.3425 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. A rebound buy at 1.3394, which I mentioned in my forecast for the second half of the day, yielded about 25 pips of profit. No economic data is expected from the UK today, meaning GBP/USD retains the potential for further growth. However, traders should pay close attention to global factors influencing currency pair dynamics. In particular, investor attention will be focused on news from the United States. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape continues to significantly influence markets. Any signs of escalating conflicts or tightening of sanctions may lead to heightened volatility and a reassessment of risk. In terms of technical analysis, GBP/USD is showing signs of consolidation near current levels. A breakout above key resistance levels may pave the way for further growth, while a break below support levels could trigger a correction. For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2. Buying ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3430 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3453 (thick green line on the chart). At 1.3453, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from that level. Buying the pound today should only be considered in continuation of the current uptrend. Note: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3416 level while MACD is in the oversold zone. This setup limits the pair's downside potential and could trigger a reversal upward. Expected targets are 1.3430 and 1.3453. Selling ScenariosScenario 1: I will look to sell the pound after a breakout below 1.3416 (red line on the chart), which may cause a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3390, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open long trades in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound. Pound sellers are likely to act cautiously. Note: Before selling, confirm that the MACD is below the zero mark and just beginning to move downward. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3430 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This setup limits the pair's upward potential and could lead to a market reversal downward. Expected downside targets are 1.3416 and 1.3390. Chart Key:Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrumentThick green line – expected price level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profit, beyond which further growth is unlikelyThin red line – entry price for selling the instrumentThick red line – expected price level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profit, beyond which further decline is unlikelyMACD indicator – always refer to overbought or oversold zones before entering the marketImportant Notice for Beginner Traders: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price moves. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit—especially if you lack proper money management and use large trade volumes. Always remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of Forex Trades and Trading Advice on the EuroThe price test at 1.1684 occurred when the MACD indicator had already deviated significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. A bounce buy at 1.1658 allowed me to secure around 15 pips of profit. Friday's eurozone inflation data did not significantly aid the euro's growth. Focus now shifts to Germany's Producer Price Index and the European Central Bank current account balance. In addition, a speech by Germany's central bank president, Joachim Nagel, is scheduled. An increase in German producer prices often precedes a rise in consumer prices, which in turn affects the ECB's monetary policy. These figures are expected to provide insight into the state of Germany's manufacturing sector and future inflation dynamics. The ECB's current account balance reflects the difference between incoming and outgoing financial flows from the eurozone's current transactions. A positive balance indicates stronger exports and investment inflows. This data helps evaluate the eurozone's competitiveness and its structural strengths or imbalances. Weak data may temporarily pressure the euro. A speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel traditionally draws market attention. His remarks on current economic conditions, inflation expectations, and ECB monetary policy can significantly influence the euro's exchange rate and trader sentiment. Market participants will closely analyze any hints of upcoming policy changes based on fresh economic reports. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to follow primarily Scenarios 1 and 2. Buying ScenariosScenario 1: I will consider buying the euro at around 1.1677 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1703. I plan to exit the market near 1.1703 and initiate a short position in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip correction from the entry point. Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it. Scenario 2: I'll also buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1653 level, while MACD is in the oversold zone. This setup limits the euro's downside potential and may trigger an upward reversal. Target levels are 1.1677 and 1.1703. Selling ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches the 1.1653 level (red line on the chart), aiming for a decline to 1.1625. I'll then look to buy again at that level, expecting a reverse movement of 20–25 pips. Weak data could renew pressure on the pair. Note: Before selling, confirm the MACD is below zero and just beginning its downward move. Scenario 2: I will also sell in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1677 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This limits upside potential and could signal a reversal downward. Expected downside levels are 1.1653 and 1.1625. Chart Key:Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrumentThick green line – expected price level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profit, beyond which further growth is unlikelyThin red line – entry price for selling the instrumentThick red line – expected price level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profit, beyond which further decline is unlikelyMACD indicator – always refer to overbought or oversold zones before entering the marketImportant Notice for Beginner Traders: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price moves. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit—especially if you lack proper money management and use large trade volumes. Always remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

When everyone is selling, it presents a great opportunity to buy. Despite an unfavorable week for the S&P 500, the capital flow from money market funds totaling $24.6 billion into U.S. equity funds with $28.1 billion is a strong indication of the underlying strength of the uptrend. Investors continue to use dips in the broad stock index as buying opportunities, even if they are doing so less openly than before. Weekly Performance of the S&P 500 October is a time for reassessment. The stock market had long been dismissing negatives such as the government shutdown and excessively high fundamental valuations, including P/E ratios. At the midpoint of autumn, investors have become more cautious. The escalation of the U.S.-China trade war came as a thunderbolt for the S&P 500. However, the "Sell America" strategy quickly gave way to TACO. It's no surprise that Donald Trump's conciliatory rhetoric near the end of the week, by October 17, allowed the S&P 500 to lick its wounds. The President remarked that the U.S. is getting along with China and confirmed that the planned meeting with Xi Jinping will take place this month. That was enough to ease tensions slightly, though fear still lingers in the equity market. "If you want peace, prepare for war." Investors are actively buying utility stocks, healthcare, and consumer staples—sectors that perform best during downturns. In contrast, shares of regional banks, airlines, retailers, and real estate companies have come under heavy selling pressure. These typically lead during economic booms in the U.S. Performance of Regional Bank Equity ETFs During the COVID-19 pandemic, much debate revolved around what the recovery in U.S. GDP would look like. V- or U-shaped recoveries implied rapid or gradual growth. An L-shaped recovery suggested a prolonged period of sluggish expansion. There was also the concept of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors rebound and others do not. The latter scenario is now being considered by investors in making sector-specific buying decisions. Support for the S&P 500 is also stemming from the Federal Open Market Committee's intention to continue the monetary easing cycle, even in the absence of full data. The shutdown has delayed the release of crucial reports, such as the U.S. jobs data for September and inflation figures. Nonetheless, Fed officials are unanimously signaling a federal funds rate cut in October. For example, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that continued monetary expansion is needed to support the cooling labor market. October reaffirms its reputation as the most volatile month of the year for the broad equity index. When will the consolidation end? Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart shows mixed dynamics, indicating uncertainty. Only a breakout from the 6550–6720 trading range will allow the market to determine its next directional move. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on October 20 The U.S. dollar regained part of its position against risk assets, but so far this appears to be no more than profit-taking following a strong rally. Given the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, particular attention will focus on the first half of the day. Data on Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) and the European Central Bank's current account balance are expected. Later, the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, is scheduled to speak. Economists closely monitor Germany's PPI, as it is a key indicator of inflationary pressure in the eurozone. A rise in producer prices often precedes a rise in consumer prices, which may influence the ECB's monetary policy. The data is expected to provide insight into the current state of the manufacturing sector and the inflation outlook in Germany. The ECB's current account balance reflects the difference between the eurozone's income and expenditures on current transactions. A positive balance indicates a surplus in trade of goods and services, as well as an inflow of investment. These figures help assess the eurozone's competitiveness and role in the global economy. The speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will also attract the attention of market participants. His comments on the current economic situation, inflation prospects, and monetary policy of the ECB may have a significant impact on the euro's exchange rate and overall market sentiment. No reports are scheduled for release from the UK today, so no major movements are expected in the GBP/USD pair. Despite Friday's correction, the uptrend remains intact, so buying opportunities may emerge near the closest support levels. If the data matches economists' expectations, the Mean Reversion strategy is recommended. If the data significantly exceeds or falls below expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferable. Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading):EUR/USDBuy on breakout of 1.1679: potential rise to 1.1715 and 1.1746Sell on breakout of 1.1644: potential decline to 1.1614 and 1.1582GBP/USDBuy on breakout of 1.3449: potential rise to 1.3488 and 1.3525Sell on breakout of 1.3410: potential decline to 1.3371 and 1.3336USD/JPYBuy on breakout of 150.83: potential rise to 151.29 and 151.73Sell on breakout of 150.52: potential decline to 150.10 and 149.80Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversion to the Mean): EUR/USDLook for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1680 on a return below the levelLook for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1655 on a return above the level GBP/USDLook for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3449 on a return below the levelLook for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3420 on a return above the level AUD/USDLook for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6521 on a return below the levelLook for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6495 on a return above the level USD/CADLook for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.4023 on a return below the levelLook for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.4001 on a return above the levelThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Cantonese Cat argues that Dogecoin remains structurally primed for a late-cycle surge that would track the pattern of prior crypto bull markets, insisting that the coin’s decisive move has not yet arrived. In a 50-minute market analysis published on Oct. 19, the analyst ties Dogecoin’s setup to liquidity cycles and inter-market signals, but emphasizes that the DOGE read is simple: the market hasn’t seen the characteristic Dogecoin breakout that, in past cycles, has coincided with Bitcoin’s final acceleration. “Whenever you have Bitcoin going up, Dogecoin also is forming a pretty decent base,” he said, noting that DOGE has participated only marginally while Bitcoin has ground higher. The trigger, in his view, is explicit. “Once you have Doge breaking into all-time high… that can happen in a hurry… once you have Doge breaking [its] all-time high, generally that’s when the acceleration phase of Bitcoin begins.” He frames that relationship as a recurring feature of cycle dynamics rather than an exception, arguing that the absence of a Dogecoin all-time-high breakout is one of several reasons he rejects the thesis that the broader crypto cycle has already ended. Is The Dogecoin Bull Run Over? Cantonese Cat links that call to the broader backdrop of risk appetite and liquidity, but he repeatedly narrows the lens to DOGE itself. He characterizes recent price action as a wear-you-out phase—punctuated by a sharp deleveraging “last week… with a big giant wick”—that has hardened bearish sentiment without invalidating the longer-term structure. “We haven’t had Doge breaking the all-time high yet… We have the deleveraging event, but we haven’t had [the] breakout into all-time high,” he said, adding that the coin’s base-building is consistent with how earlier cycles have unfolded before rapid upside. Part of his conviction stems from how he reads Bitcoin dominance and the timing of altcoin rotations. He argues that dominance has run for “2022, 2023, 2024, almost the bulk of 2025,” looks “a little bit tired,” and has been moving sideways for roughly a year. In his framework, a turn lower in dominance would not necessarily mean Bitcoin weakness; rather, it would imply outperformance by altcoins. “If we end the cycle right here… this will be the very first time ever that we haven’t had any rotations from Bitcoin to altcoins and we haven’t had that parabolic phase—and this time would be different.” He is explicit that he does not buy the “this time is different” narrative, stating, “I just don’t really think that the cycle is different from [the] previous [one]… because things are still playing out.” The Dogecoin-specific takeaway is that the market’s recent stress does not negate the historical sequencing he expects. He argues that the coin’s signature move typically arrives after prolonged compression, often in a condensed window. “Last time [it] only happened within like a couple months and next thing you know it’s just like whoa what happened,” he recalled, cautioning that DOGE’s acceleration window can open quickly once resistance gives way. That pattern recognition underpins his pushback against entrenched pessimism: “A lot of people are just extremely bitter about Doge because this cycle has been wearing everybody out,” he said, but he views that sentiment as typical of pre-breakout conditions rather than evidence of structural failure. Cantonese Cat repeatedly stresses that he is not giving financial advice and allows that his call could be wrong. Still, he returns to the same fulcrum: Dogecoin hasn’t delivered the hallmark event of a completed cycle. Until it does—or definitively fails—he treats the coin as coiled rather than concluded. “The reality [is], I just don’t really think that the cycle is different… We haven’t had that [DOGE] breakout,” he said, summing up the risk-on bias that animates his view. In other words, for traders positioning around late-cycle outcomes, his message is that the “Dogecoin moment” remains ahead of the tape—and that the bears could be early. DOGE Is Price Targets Although the analyst does not cite fresh DOGE targets in the Oct. 19 video, he defers to levels from his earlier work, where he laid out several price-target frameworks for Dogecoin. In those prior notes, he argued that DOGE could be entering Wave 3 of an Elliott Wave structure after reclaiming the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous impulse ($0.20088). From that framework, he highlighted upside projections around $0.48 (1.0 extension), $0.89 (1.272), $1.23 (1.414), and $1.96 (1.618). In variant commentary, he has also floated outcomes $2.00+ if a breakout accelerates, and in a more speculative scenario—likely from a separate video—he said, “I’m going to lay down the case as to why I think DOGE can hit $4 this cycle…”. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.201.

Boa noite, traders. Acabamos de receber a prova mais contundente e alarmante de que o "squeeze" físico nos mercados de metais preciosos atingiu um ponto de ruptura. Relatórios urgentes e uma transcrição de conversas no mercado chinês, divulgados pela CCTV, confirmam o impensável: Yongxing, a "Capital da Prata" da China e responsável por 25% da produção do país, está oficialmente sem estoque de barras de prata. Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro, Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE Esta não é uma anomalia isolada. É o prenúncio de uma crise de oferta de prata física que está se espalhando globalmente. 1. A Anatomia do Aperto na "Capital da Prata" Os detalhes que chegam de Yongxing e do mercado de prata de Shuibei são chocantes: Varejistas Vendidos: Lojas em Yongxing que antes comercializavam barras de prata estão completamente esgotadas. Demanda Frenética: Conversas de mercado (como a transcrição anexa) revelam que a demanda é tão alta que é descrita como "louca" ("抢疯了"). Mesmo pequenas quantidades (10kg) são difíceis de obter. Um comerciante relata ter lutado por dias para conseguir 10-20kg para um amigo. Mercado de Shuibei em Chamas: Barras de 1kg sendo vendidas a $60.28/onça (muito acima dos preços de mercado "de papel"). Compras acima de 10kg exigem espera de 1 mês para entrega. Barras pré-vendidas a $52.34/onça (com pagamento integral antecipado), sem garantias de entrega e relatos de comerciantes desaparecendo. Retirada direta da refinaria custa $56.70/onça + VAT + taxas. Minha Análise (Igor Pereira): O que estamos vendo é um colapso na cadeia de fornecimento de prata física ao nível do varejo e dos pequenos atacadistas. Quando o maior centro de produção de um país como a China fica sem estoque e as entregas se estendem por um mês, isso indica que a oferta disponível já foi esgotada e o sistema está funcionando no limite. Os preços exorbitantes sobre o spot de papel são a prova do pânico e da escassez real. 2. A Prata Desaparece: Implicações Globais Esta notícia, vinda da China – o maior consumidor industrial de prata e um dos maiores compradores de varejo – tem implicações monumentais para o mercado global. Validação do Squeeze: Este é um endosso irrefutável de nossa tese de "aperto físico" que venho alertando. Não é teoria; é uma realidade brutal nos balcões de vendas e nas refinarias. Prata "Inatingível": Nossas previsões de que a prata está se tornando "inatingível" estão se concretizando mais rápido do que o esperado. Pressão no Preço do "Papel": A pressão de compra no mercado físico eventualmente terá que se refletir nos preços de "papel" (futuros). A desconexão entre o mercado físico e o de derivativos está se tornando insustentável. Conclusão de Igor Pereira: Um Alerta Sem Precedentes para o XAG/USD A situação em Yongxing e Shuibei não é apenas uma notícia; é um marco na história dos mercados de metais preciosos. É a prova irrefutável de que a demanda física por prata está explodindo e a oferta está falhando. Para os traders e investidores em Prata (XAG/USD), a mensagem é clara: A volatilidade vai aumentar drasticamente. Qualquer queda no preço de "papel" deve ser vista como uma oportunidade de compra em meio a uma crise de oferta. O alvo de $100 para a prata em 2026, que pode ter parecido ambicioso, agora parece conservador diante desta escassez física. Estejam preparados. O mercado de prata está em rota de colisão com a realidade da oferta e demanda. O "squeeze" é real, e seus efeitos serão sentidos globalmente.

Macroeconomic Report Overview: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Therefore, today, traders may only monitor speeches by Donald Trump and little else. Even speeches by central bank representatives currently carry minimal significance, as markets have a clear understanding of what to expect in the near future. The only remaining uncertainty relates to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, though even that is relatively minor. Fundamental Event Overview: Few fundamental events are scheduled for Monday, and almost none of them are generating any interest. Over the past several weeks, we have witnessed numerous speeches from representatives of the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve. As such, the market is fully aware of the positions of all three central banks. A scheduled speech by Isabel Schnabel from the ECB on Monday is unlikely to change anything. It's worth recalling that Eurozone inflation increased more than expected in September, which does not support further monetary easing. However, even before the new inflation report, the ECB was not inclined to lower the key interest rate further. Thus, the release of the new inflation figures has changed nothing. General Conclusions: On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue their upward movement after breaking through trendlines. For the euro, there is a strong trading area at 1.1655–1.1666, from which both long and short positions can be considered depending on upcoming signals. For the British pound, the 1.3413–1.3421 area has already been broken through, which means further growth toward the 1.3466–1.3475 zone can be expected. Main Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is determined by how quickly the signal is formed (rebound or breakout of a level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signal trades were opened near a certain level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During flat market conditions, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, trading is best avoided at the first signs of a flat market.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; all trades should be closed manually afterward.On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should only be traded when there is sufficient volatility and an established trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.If two levels are located too close (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.After a trade has moved 15-20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and Resistance Price Levels – levels that serve as targets for opening buy and sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.Red Lines – trendlines or trend channels that display the current trend direction and indicate the preferred trading direction.MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.Important speeches and reports (always shown in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, it's best to trade with extreme caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding trend. Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and using proper money management are key to long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review:1-Hour Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair showed a slight downward movement on Friday amidst easing tensions between China and the United States. It is also worth noting that over the weekend, the United States witnessed its third protest against Donald Trump's immigration and trade policies, with this one being the largest by far. Demonstrations took place in more than 2,600 cities across America, and not all of them were peaceful or orderly. As we can see, America is rebelling against Donald Trump, which is quite logical considering both his foreign and domestic policies. Consequently, we continue to believe that with Trump at the helm, America is heading into decline. Many central banks are already moving away from using the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. People are already leaving America. And it is already evident that doing business with the U.S. will become increasingly difficult in the coming years. Therefore, we foresee further decline for the dollar. 5-Minute Chart of GBP/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Friday. All three were false, as the price movement throughout the day was very weak. The price generated signals three times in the 1.3413–1.3421 area but failed to move even 20 pips in the desired direction. As a reminder, no matter how good trading signals are, if volatility is near zero, making a profit is impossible. How to Trade on Monday: On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has finally begun forming a new bullish trend, which could mark the start of a new leg in the global uptrend. As previously mentioned, there are no fundamental reasons for a sustained dollar rally, so in the medium term, we expect the dollar to move only to the upside. Donald Trump's policy, which has sharply intensified regarding tariffs in recent weeks, will continue to drive the market away from the U.S. dollar. On Monday, the GBP/USD pair may attempt to continue its upward movement, as the trend has shifted to bullish. A bounce from the 1.3413–1.3421 zone would allow for opening long positions with targets at 1.3466–1.3475. A consolidation of price below the 1.3413–1.3421 area would indicate a new phase of downward correction. On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can now be conducted around the following levels: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. On Monday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in either the United Kingdom or the United States. As a result, there will be little for traders to respond to throughout the day, and volatility may once again remain low. Main Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is determined by how quickly the signal is formed (rebound or breakout of a level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signal trades were opened near a certain level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During flat market conditions, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, trading is best avoided at the first signs of a flat market.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; all trades should be closed manually afterward.On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should only be traded when there is sufficient volatility and an established trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.If two levels are located too close (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.After a trade has moved 20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and Resistance Price Levels – levels that serve as targets for opening buy and sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.Red Lines – trendlines or trend channels that display the current trend direction and indicate the preferred trading direction.MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.Important speeches and reports (always shown in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, it's best to trade with extreme caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding trend. Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and using proper money management are key to long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review: 1-Hour Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair declined more than it rose. As a reminder, the technical trend turned bullish last week; therefore, traders are now fully justified in expecting the euro to rise. It's also worth noting that recently (in our view), the euro had few grounds for decline, and the U.S. dollar had little reason to strengthen. However, the daily timeframe remains flat, which is why we saw nearly three weeks of decline, raising many questions. As for Friday itself, the inflation report in the Eurozone for September came in above both forecasts and the initial estimate. The higher the inflation rate, the less likely the European Central Bank is to lower interest rates further. In this way, higher inflation supports the euro. But as we can see, traders ignored the report, as expected. In the second half of the day, Donald Trump somewhat eased market tension by stating that an agreement with China was likely, and that increased tariffs would not be permanent. Based on this, the dollar may have strengthened slightly. 5-Minute Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe during Friday's session, there were virtually no trading signals formed. As the evening approached, the price fell toward the 1.1655–1.1666 area, but by that time, most traders had already exited for the weekend. Today, the pair remains in this area, and no new trading signals have been formed yet. How to Trade on Monday: On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is finally showing signs of an uptrend. The descending trendline has once again been broken, and the overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. Thus, we continue to expect the resumption of the bullish trend of 2025. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair could move in either direction, as there are almost no significant fundamental or macroeconomic events scheduled for the day. Novice traders may wait for a signal to form around the 1.1655–1.1666 area. However, overall price movements could be weak today. On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. For Monday, there are no significant reports or events scheduled in either the Eurozone or the United States. Therefore, volatility may once again be very low, but the euro may continue its gradual upward movement, as all necessary grounds for that currently exist. Main Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is determined by how quickly the signal is formed (rebound or breakout of a level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signal trades were opened near a certain level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During flat market conditions, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, trading is best avoided at the first signs of a flat market.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; all trades should be closed manually afterward.On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should only be traded when there is sufficient volatility and an established trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.If two levels are located too close (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.After a trade has moved 15 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and Resistance Price Levels – levels that serve as targets for opening buy and sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.Red Lines – trendlines or trend channels that display the current trend direction and indicate the preferred trading direction.MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.Important speeches and reports (always shown in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, it's best to trade with extreme caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding trend. Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and using proper money management are key to long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[USDX] – [Monday, October 20, 2025] The appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI indicator against the price movement of #USDX, combined with its position in the Neutral-Bearish zone and confirmation via a Death Cross between the two EMAs, suggests that #USDX is likely to decline today. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 98.86 2. Resistance. 1 : 98.69 3. Pivot : 98.34 4. Support. 1 : 98.17 5. Support. 2 : 97.82 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 98.34, #USDX may continue its decline toward 98.17. Momentum Extension Bias: If 98.17 is breached, #USDX has the potential to fall further toward 97.82. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside bias is contained if #USDX strengthens and breaks and closes above 98.86. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 98.40 EMA(200): 98.59 RSI(14) : 47.22 + Bearish Divergent Ecconomic News Release Agenda: From the United States, only one economic data release is scheduled for tonight which is CB Leading Index m/m at 21:00 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[XPD/USD] – [Monday, October 20, 2025] With a Death Cross between both EMAs and the RSI indicator in the Neutral-Bearish zone showing a Hidden Bearish Divergence, XPD/USD has the potential to continue weakening. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 1733.97 2. Resistance. 1 : 1615.86 3. Pivot : 1554.09 4. Support. 1 : 1435.98 5. Support. 2 : 1374.21 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 1435.98, there's a high likelihood it will test the 1374.21 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1374.21 is broken and closes below, XPD/USD could continue weakening toward 1256.10. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside bias is neutralized if the price stabilizes above the resistance zone. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 1538.28 EMA(200): 1552.96 RSI(14) : 41.86 + Hidden Bearish Divergent Ecconomic News Release Agenda: From the United States, only one economic data release is scheduled for tonight which is CB Leading Index m/m at 21:00 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Boa noite, traders. Um evento crítico para o futuro do mercado de criptomoedas acaba de ser anunciado, e todos os olhos devem estar voltados para Washington. Em 22 de outubro, os legisladores democratas dos EUA realizarão uma mesa redonda focada exclusivamente em criptomoedas. Minha Análise (Igor Pereira): O Que Esperar e Por Que é Importante Este evento é de suma importância por vários motivos: Sinal de Aumento da Pressão Regulatória: A realização de uma mesa redonda por legisladores de um dos maiores partidos nos EUA indica que o escrutínio regulatório sobre o setor de criptoativos está se intensificando. Não é um debate casual, mas um movimento orquestrado para discutir o futuro da legislação. Influência Política: Os democratas têm defendido uma abordagem mais cautelosa e regulatória para as criptomoedas, focando em proteção ao consumidor, estabilidade financeira e combate a atividades ilícitas. Suas discussões podem moldar a agenda legislativa futura e influenciar a postura de órgãos como a SEC e o Tesouro. Potencial para Volatilidade: Dependendo do tom e das conclusões desta mesa redonda, o mercado de criptomoedas, incluindo o Bitcoin (BTC/USD), pode experimentar volatilidade significativa. Declarações que sinalizem regulamentações mais rígidas podem gerar pressão de venda, enquanto uma abordagem mais conciliatória ou focada na inovação pode trazer alívio. Cripto vs. Ouro: No contexto da nossa análise anterior sobre a ameaça do ouro ao Bitcoin, qualquer sinal de aumento da incerteza regulatória nos EUA pode reforçar a percepção de que, para a proteção de capital, o ouro oferece uma estabilidade regulatória (e fiduciária) superior em comparação com os ativos digitais. Conclusão: Marquem seus calendários. O dia 22 de outubro será um momento-chave para entender a direção que a política cripto americana pode tomar. Estejam preparados para a potencial repercussão no preço do Bitcoin e outros ativos digitais. A era da regulamentação está avançando, e o mercado precisa estar atento.

Ethereum price started a recovery wave above $3,880. ETH is now rising and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,050 resistance. Ethereum started a fresh recovery above $3,800 and $3,880. The price is trading above $3,920 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $3,940 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it trades above $4,050. Ethereum Price Rises Again Ethereum price struggled to settle above $4,050 and corrected most gains, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below the $4,000 and $3,800 levels. It even tested the $3,680 zone. A low was formed at $3,677 and the price is now correcting losses. There was a decent move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,292 swing high to the $3,677 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $3,940 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $3,920 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,050 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,292 swing high to the $3,677 low. The next key resistance is near the $4,120 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,220 level. A clear move above the $4,220 resistance might send the price toward the $4,320 resistance. An upside break above the $4,320 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,440 resistance zone or even $4,500 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,050 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,940 level. The first major support sits near the $3,880 zone. A clear move below the $3,880 support might push the price toward the $3,820 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,680 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,620. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $3,880 Major Resistance Level – $4,050

Boa noite, traders e membros, Hoje, vamos confrontar uma realidade que poucos na indústria cripto estão dispostos a admitir: o ouro não é apenas um competidor; ele é a maior ameaça estrutural ao Bitcoin. A narrativa de entusiasmo em torno do Bitcoin prosperou em um período de consolidação do ouro. Mas agora, com o ouro em plena ascensão global, o ímpeto para a compra de Bitcoin está diminuindo, projetando uma fase de estagnação ou lateralização para as criptomoedas no curto prazo. Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro, Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE Este não é um momento para achismos ou otimismo infundado. É hora de analisar os fatos, os dados macroeconômicos e a psicologia de um mercado que está à beira de uma reprecificação monumental. 1. O Contexto Macro: Desvalorização Fiduciária e Confiança Perdida É imperativo reconhecer: a atual valorização estratosférica do ouro não é um reflexo do crescimento robusto dos EUA, nem meramente da impressão de dinheiro. O FMI pode se recusar a admitir, mas o estatismo descontrolado – as políticas fiscais e monetárias expansionistas e irresponsáveis – corroeu fundamentalmente a confiança nas moedas fiduciárias dos países desenvolvidos. O ouro está respondendo a uma crise de confiança sistêmica. Bancos Centrais: O "dinheiro inteligente" dos bancos centrais já internalizou essa crise. A alocação de ouro em suas reservas globais triplicou de 10% para 22% desde 2000, o maior patamar em quase três décadas. E se eles retornarem aos níveis de 70% de 1980, o ouro atingirá US$ 6.042 — isso não é especulação, é matemática básica. Oferta vs. Preço: O argumento simplista de que o ouro subirá apenas pela impressão de dinheiro é insuficiente. A recente valorização do ouro excedeu significativamente o crescimento da oferta monetária no último ano. Esta divergência é um sinal de que a demanda está sendo impulsionada por algo muito mais fundamental. 2. As Implicações para o Bitcoin: Uma Rivalidade Direta A ascensão imparável do ouro, especialmente em um cenário de confiança abalada, coloca o Bitcoin em uma posição delicada. Enquanto o ouro se torna "inacessível" para muitos e a prata "inatingível", os que buscaram o Bitcoin como "ouro digital" podem começar a reavaliar suas escolhas. Queda Lateralizada para Bitcoin: Com o ouro reafirmando seu status de refúgio definitivo, o capital que antes migrava para o Bitcoin em busca de proteção pode agora encontrar um ativo mais estabelecido e reconhecido. Isso pode, e deve, desencadear uma queda lateralizada para o Bitcoin no curto prazo, um ajuste doloroso de expectativas. 3. Previsões para 2026: Uma Nova Ordem Financeira As projeções para 2026 não são apenas previsões; são o mapeamento de uma mudança tectônica no cenário financeiro global: Ouro (XAU/USD): US$ 7.000 ou próximo Prata (XAG/USD): $ 100 Bitcoin (BTC/USD): $72.500 (um ajuste significativo da euforia prévia) Dow Jones: 34.000 (uma visão conservadora que reflete a pressão sobre ações) Nasdaq: 15.000 (igualmente conservador, mostrando vulnerabilidade de ativos de crescimento) Isto não é uma opinião, é um fato. Estamos prestes a assistir a uma repetição do cenário de 2011 para ouro e prata, com um impulso ainda maior devido às condições macroeconômicas atuais. 4. Análise Técnica XAU/USD: Preparando-se para a Próxima Fase (20 a 26 de Outubro de 2025) Apesar da força estrutural do ouro, é fundamental reconhecer os ciclos de mercado. O fechamento semanal em $4.249,98 (queda de 1,76%) em 19 de outubro sugere uma vulnerabilidade de curto prazo devido ao "cansaço" da forte alta e aos extremos de momentum. Níveis Chave para a Semana: Ponto de Pivô Crítico: $4.215,60 Resistências Chave (Alvos de Curto Prazo e Pressão Vendedora): R1: $ 4.236 - $ 4.222 R2: $ 4.257,43 R3: $ 4.272,92 R4: $4.285-$4.293 (Zona de forte resistência, potencial para ajustes) Alvos Mais Altos: $4.303-$4.314 e $4.315-$4.326. Um fechamento semanal acima de $4.308 validaria a continuidade da alta. Suportes Chave (Oportunidades de Compra Estratégica): S1: $ 4.212,33 S2: $ 4.199,75 S3: $ 4.182,64 Suportes Críticos para a Tendência: $4.122 - $4.054 (linha mediana). Manter-se acima desta zona é vital para a retomada da alta. Suporte Mais Profundo: $3.953. Uma queda abaixo de $4.000 pode sinalizar uma retração mais profunda, mas ainda dentro de uma macro-tendência de alta. Previsão para a Próxima Semana: A perspectiva imediata aponta para vulnerabilidade e uma potencial correção menor. Se as perdas forem contidas acima da importante zona de $4.120–$4.055, o par pode consolidar e, após um respiro necessário, retomar sua alta, mirando em $4.307 e potencialmente buscando $4-45x–$4.6xx em um movimento estendido. Riscos Chave a Monitorar: Dados de inflação dos EUA (CPI, PPI). Desenvolvimentos nas tensões comerciais EUA-China. Impactos do "shutdown" fiscal doméstico nos EUA. Esses fatores podem influenciar as expectativas do Federal Reserve e provocar volatilidade intensa. Conclusão de Igor Pereira: A Era do Ouro Incontestável Estamos entrando em uma era onde o ouro não é apenas um hedge; ele é o epicentro de uma reavaliação global de valor. Enquanto a indústria cripto pode "atacar" o ouro em um desespero para manter sua narrativa, os fatos econômicos e o movimento inegável do capital institucional apontam para uma verdade: o ouro está se estabelecendo como o porto seguro primário em um mundo em transformação. Preparem-se. A próxima década será definida pelo retorno do Rei dos Metais. A análise que você acabou de ler não é especulação; é a interpretação de dados e fatos que estão remodelando o mercado financeiro global. Enquanto a maioria observa, os profissionais operam. No ExpertFX Club, esta é apenas a superfície. Lá dentro, você terá acesso diário à inteligência de mercado que realmente importa: fluxo de ordens institucional em tempo real, estratégias acionáveis para Ouro (XAU/USD), Prata (XAG/USD) e Bitcoin (BTC/USD), e a clareza para navegar e lucrar com a volatilidade. Não se contente com informações superficiais. Tome decisões com a precisão de um insider. Pronto para operar no padrão institucional? acesse e conheça no site https://expertfx.club/

Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $107,500 and $108,000. BTC could continue to move up if it clears the $109,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $105,000 resistance level. The price is trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $107,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $109,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery Bitcoin price failed to surpass the $110,000 resistance level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below the $108,000 and $106,500 support levels to enter a bearish zone. The price even dipped below $105,000. A low was formed at $103,583 and the price is correcting some losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $115,975 swing high to the $103,583 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $107,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $109,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $110,000 level. The next resistance could be $111,250 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $115,975 swing high to the $103,583 low. A close above the $111,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $112,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $113,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $115,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $110,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $108,000 level. The first major support is near the $107,500 level. The next support is now near the $106,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $105,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $108,000, followed by $106,500. Major Resistance Levels – $109,500 and $111,250.

EUR/USD On Friday, the market experienced profit-taking. The euro declined by 35 pips, and trading volume was high. However, with the start of a new week, speculators may once again turn to risk amid rising stock indices and government bond yields. On the daily chart, the price briefly dipped below the MACD indicator line, but today's session opened above it. The Marlin oscillator is rising and preparing to enter the territory of an upward trend. Once it does, euro growth may accelerate. The target at 1.1779, based on the highs of October 1 and September 9, is open. On the four-hour chart, during the downward correction, Marlin did not move into negative territory, and the price declined only moderately without reaching any indicator lines. It is likely that only the September low and other local extremes around the 1.1650 level were tested. We expect the price to reverse from the current level and resume growth toward the target of 1.1779. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Friday's trading range for the pound was about 80 pips, with the day closing down by eight pips. The lower shadow of the candlestick touched the MACD line. This is a sign that the repositioning of short-term traders has been completed, and the price is ready to continue rising toward the target level of 1.3525. The balance line (red moving average) is approaching this level, and the price may reach the target at the point where it intersects with the indicator line. In that case, a new correction may occur. The Marlin oscillator is still in negative territory but visually appears to be preparing to enter the growth zone. On the four-hour chart, the extremes of Friday's session are forming a range for potential consolidation. The nearly horizontal movement of the Marlin oscillator currently signals a sideways trend. Therefore, a breakout above Friday's high at 1.3470 will be a signal for growth. A downward breakout, as an alternative scenario, appears unlikely at the moment due to the presence of numerous strong support levels on both the H4 and daily timeframes. However, if the price manages to consolidate below 1.3350 (MACD line), a target of 1.3253 will open up. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/GBP Despite the pair's desperate attempt on Friday to break above the MACD line, the day closed with a black candlestick, confirming the consolidation that occurred the day before. Additionally, the oscillator line of the Marlin indicator on the daily timeframe has returned to the territory of a downtrend. There are all the initial signs of a further price decline toward the lower boundary of the price channel, in the area of the 0.8592 mark. The duration of such a move could equal half the distance between Fibonacci time lines No. 9 and No. 10, which, accounting for the weekend, points to the beginning of November. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the balance and MACD indicator lines. However, here the price is coiling around the MACD line like on an axis, which maintains a possibility of the price returning above the line. But with each passing day, this probability decreases, as the Marlin oscillator is falling within its own channel, and the MACD line itself is descending. A move below the signal level of 0.8663 will confirm the main bearish scenario. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The GBP/USD pair experienced a moderate decline on Friday by the end of the day, though it was significantly weaker than the drop observed in EUR/USD. It's important to note that no macroeconomic reports were released in either the U.K. or the U.S. during the final trading day of the week. Market movement was primarily driven by politics, and there is no shortage of that at the moment. Donald Trump remains committed to ending the war in Ukraine, recently calling it "the ninth war he will resolve." While some may struggle to count the prior eight, this theme fits within Trump's recurring narrative that, had he been in office, events such as the Russia–Ukraine war wouldn't have even begun. However, market participants are currently less focused on Ukraine and far more concerned with Trump's global trade war and the increasingly dovish outlook for Federal Reserve policy. The trade war was discussed in detail in the EUR/USD analysis. Let's now revisit the situation at the Fed, which is becoming increasingly difficult. Despite the Fed's outwardly dovish rhetoric, some segments of the market continue to push alternative narratives, even questioning the Fed's true intentions. At the beginning of this year, the Fed hinted at a maximum of two rate cuts in 2025—something supported by officials' statements and dot plot projections. Now, partly due to Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies, labor market conditions are showing strain. As a result, the Fed has been forced to adopt a much more dovish tone than initially expected. One rate cut has already been implemented, and two additional reductions are likely before the year ends. We believe that the Fed has turned more dovish overall, not less, despite what select analysts may claim. Moreover, it is incorrect to view the Fed's path in isolation. The ECB has completed its easing cycle, and the Bank of England is likely to pause indefinitely as inflation remains nearly double the 2% target. This leaves the Fed as the only major central bank expected to ease policy further—a far more significant factor than speculation over the "tone" of its trajectory. By virtually any measure, the dollar remains under pressure. Of course, no one can predict the future with certainty. Market makers operate on their own timelines and may at times act contrary to logic or headline data. Therefore, we don't claim GBP/USD will rise endlessly in the coming years—but current conditions signal that further pound strength is far more likely than not. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 78 pips, classified as "average" for this asset. On Monday, October 20, we expect the pair to trade within the range of 1.3346 to 1.3502. The long-term linear regression channel points upward, confirming a bullish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone three times recently, strengthening the odds of a renewed upward move. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3428 S2 – 1.3367 S3 – 1.3306 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3489 R2 – 1.3550 R3 – 1.3611 Trading Recommendations:GBP/USD is attempting to resume its 2025 bullish trend, and the pair's long-term outlook remains intact. Trump's policies will continue to weigh on the dollar, so we are not anticipating an extended recovery for the U.S. currency. As a result, long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain preferable as long as the price holds above the moving average. If the price falls below the moving average, technical setups would support short positions targeting 1.3306 and 1.3245. The dollar may continue to post minor corrections, but a sustained bullish reversal will require resolution of the trade war or another broadly positive shift in global risk sentiment and economic fundamentals. Explanation of Chart Elements:Linear regression channels help identify the current trend direction. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.The moving average line (20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the preferable direction for trading.Murray levels represent projected support/resistance zones for trend continuation or correction.Volatility levels (red lines) suggest the expected price range for the next 24 hours based on current volatility measures.CCI indicator: values below –250 (oversold) or above +250 (overbought) signal a potential reversal or trend shift.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com