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Ethereum currently has strong support at $2,200, but one analyst has pointed out that if the level fails, the next region to watch could be $1,160. On-Chain Data Shows Strong Ethereum Demand Zone Near $2,200 In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about where support lies for Ethereum based on on-chain data. In on-chain analysis, levels are considered as major support/resistance zones if they host the cost basis or acquisition level of a significant part of the ETH supply. The reason behind this lies in the fact that investors are more likely to show some kind of reaction when the retest of their break-even level takes place. This buying/selling is irrelevant to the wider market if only a few holders are having it tested at once, but the story can be different when the retest is of the cost basis of a large amount of them. Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the different price levels around the current Ethereum spot price are currently looking in terms of the amount of supply that was purchased at them. In the graph, the size of the dot corresponds to the amount of Ethereum supply contained within the associated price range. It would appear that, out of the ranges listed, the $2,218 to $2,396 levels currently have the largest dot, meaning that they host the most supply. More specifically, this range has the cost basis of 6.28 million addresses, who purchased a total of 67.2 million ETH at its levels. Given this fact, it’s possible that should a retest of the range occur, investors could show a strong reaction. But what kind of reaction would it be, buying or selling? Well, these investors are in profit right now and usually, such holders are more likely to double down on the asset during declines to their acquisition mark, as they may believe the same price level would turn out to be profitable again in the future. As such, the $2,218 to $2,396 range could end up acting as a strong support level for Ethereum. In the scenario that ETH falls below the lower end of the range around $2,200, however, it may have to rely on support elsewhere. From the chart, it’s apparent that all the ranges below are much smaller in terms of supply. The next major support zone lies all the way down at $1,160, where 35.9 million addresses acquired 21.58 million tokens. Naturally, Ethereum doesn’t have to slip right through to this zone if $2,200 is lost, but if the data is to go by, it does suggest that the coin could have a harder time regaining footing below it. ETH Price Ethereum is holding above the on-chain demand zone for now as its price is floating around $2,475.

Cardano price started a fresh decline from the $0.590 zone. ADA is now consolidating and might attempt a fresh increase above the $0.5820 zone. ADA price started a fresh decline below $0.5820 and $0.5750. The price is trading above $0.560 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $0.5640 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh decline if it dips below the $0.5560 support zone. Cardano Price Fails To Extend Gains In the past few sessions, Cardano saw a fresh decline from the $0.590 zone, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum. ADA declined below the $0.580 level and trimmed most gains. The bears pushed the price below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.5567 swing low to the $0.5902 high. The price even spiked below the $0.570 support but stayed above $0.5650. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $0.5640 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair. The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.5567 swing low to the $0.5902 high. Cardano price is now trading above $0.5650 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $0.5735 zone. The first resistance is near $0.5820. The next key resistance might be $0.590. If there is a close above the $0.590 resistance, the price could start a strong rally. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $0.620 region. Any more gains might call for a move toward $0.6350 in the near term. More Losses In ADA? If Cardano’s price fails to climb above the $0.5820 resistance level, it could start another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $0.5640 level and the trend line. The next major support is near the $0.5460 level. A downside break below the $0.5460 level could open the doors for a test of $0.5250. The next major support is near the $0.510 level where the bulls might emerge. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ADA/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for ADA/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.5640 and $0.5460. Major Resistance Levels – $0.5735 and $0.5820.

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded slight gains over the past month – up 3.6% in the last 30 days – the leading cryptocurrency is experiencing a lack of Apparent Demand, indicating broader market weakness that could lead to a price slump in the near term. Bitcoin Apparent Demand Enters Negative Territory According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, Bitcoin’s new buyer demand is failing to absorb the combined supply pressure from freshly mined BTC and selling from long-term holders (LTHs). As a result, BTC’s Apparent Demand has turned negative. The analyst noted that the imbalance between buyer demand and excessive supply has created a high-risk environment for a near-term price correction. Notably, the $100,000 level remains an important support for the flagship digital asset. For the uninitiated, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand measures the balance between new buying interest and the supply of coins entering the market from miners and LTHs selling. When this metric turns negative, it means that the amount of BTC being sold exceeds new purchases, indicating potential market weakness and downward price pressure. BTC entering negative Apparent Demand territory can be considered a bearish development for two key reasons. First, it directly increases the “for sale” BTC supply, exerting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price. Second, significant selling by LTHs – often considered seasoned and sophisticated investors – suggests that experienced players believe the crypto market has likely reached a local top and are exiting before a potential severe market downturn. The analyst added: Consequently, the market is in a vulnerable state. Any price rallies from here will likely struggle to overcome this wave of available supply, and market support may be weaker than anticipated. While not a guarantee, this on-chain signal strongly suggests a period of caution is warranted until demand shows clear signs of recovery. That said, recent on-chain analysis indicates a more optimistic outlook. According to fellow CryptoQuant analyst Avocado_onchain, the 30-day moving average (MA) of Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) shows signs of healthy consolidation rather than a potential local top. Some Positive Signs For BTC While BTC’s Apparent Demand might be drying up, easing global geopolitical tensions could catalyze a rally in risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Further positive macroeconomic developments may also benefit BTC, potentially leading to a cycle top much higher than currently anticipated. Another indicator negating the possibility of a major price pullback is the steadily rising short-term holder (STH) floor price, which has surged to as high as $98,000 according to the latest on-chain data. At press time, BTC trades at $107,500, down 0.5% in the past 24 hours.

Spanish authorities, supported by Europol and enforcement teams from France, Estonia, and the United States, have taken down a sprawling crypto money laundering operation that moved over $540 million in criminal proceeds. Five people have been arrested in connection with the scheme. Three of them were found in the Canary Islands, and the other two were apprehended in Madrid. The coordinated action marks one of the most significant crypto-related crackdowns in the region to date. Following the Europol crypto bust, regulators are expected to tighten oversight on exchanges and enforce stricter KYC policies. A Blended Network of Cash and Crypto The criminal group is accused of creating a sophisticated network of shell companies in Hong Kong that operated as fake payment processors. These firms opened bank accounts using false documents and used them to route funds between Europe and Asia. Once the money was inside the system, it was transferred across several accounts, mixed with cryptocurrency transactions, and reintroduced into the traditional banking sector as if it had clean origins. Investigators believe the group laundered around 460 million euros by layering cash deposits, wire transfers, and digital assets to avoid detection. Funds were frequently cycled through crypto platforms, adding another layer of complexity to tracking the money trail. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 A New Level of Enforcement Collaboration What stands out about this case is the level of coordination across borders. Europol provided operational support, intelligence sharing, and digital forensics. Spanish police led the investigation, with other countries stepping in to help with evidence gathering and data tracing. Authorities say the international cooperation was essential in tracking the funds and linking them to real-world actors. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.13T24h7d30d1yAll time This isn’t the first time cryptocurrency has been at the center of a financial crime ring, but it may be one of the largest in terms of structure and geographic scope. The group’s setup relied heavily on regulatory gaps across jurisdictions, making use of weak identity checks and light oversight in some regions to move money with minimal scrutiny. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in July2025 Regulators Are Catching Up Just a few years ago, tracing this type of criminal activity would have been a much steeper challenge. The tools and regulatory frameworks have improved significantly, especially in Europe. Governments now have access to better blockchain analytics, closer inter-agency relationships, and stronger compliance expectations from crypto businesses. Cases like this show that digital assets are no longer outside the reach of enforcement. The ability to track transactions on public blockchains, combined with improved know-your-customer rules, makes it harder for these kinds of operations to stay under the radar. What’s Next for the Investigation The suspects will now face trial in Spain, though authorities expect further action in other countries where connected companies or individuals may have played a role. Europol stated that the investigation is ongoing, and officers are following new leads and preparing for additional arrests. As this case unfolds, it may become a benchmark for future prosecutions involving crypto-related laundering. It also adds more pressure on regulators to tighten standards and close the loopholes that allow these schemes to grow. This Europol crypto bust shows how law enforcement is catching up with digital finance crimes using advanced blockchain tracking. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Authorities dismantled a $540 million crypto laundering operation tied to shell companies and cross-border transfers. Spanish police, backed by Europol and agencies from France, Estonia, and the U.S., arrested five individuals connected to the scheme. The criminal network funneled dirty money through fake Hong Kong-based payment processors and layered it with crypto transactions. Improved international collaboration and blockchain forensics helped track and link the funds to real-world suspects. The case highlights growing regulatory pressure to close identity and compliance gaps across global crypto platforms. The post Europol Busts $540 Million Crypto Laundering Network appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

XRP price started a steady increase above the $2.220 zone. The price is now correcting gains and might find bids near the $2.20 zone. XRP price started a fresh increase above the $2.220 zone. The price is now trading above $2.180 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2.20 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could gain bullish momentum if it clears the $2.280 resistance zone. XRP Price Regains Traction XRP price formed a base above the $2.120 level and started a fresh increase, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above the $2.180 and $2.20 resistance levels. The pair even surged above the $2.30 level. A high was formed at $2.327 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the $2.280 level. It dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.165 swing low to the $2.327 high. The price is now trading above $2.180 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2.20 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.165 swing low to the $2.327 high. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.280 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.30 level. The next resistance is $2.320. A clear move above the $2.320 resistance might send the price toward the $2.350 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.40 resistance or even $2.450 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be $2.50. Fresh Decline? If XRP fails to clear the $2.280 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.220 level. The next major support is near the $2.20 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.20 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $2.150 support. The next major support sits near the $2.120 zone. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.220 and $2.20. Major Resistance Levels – $2.280 and $2.320.

Germany’s biggest banking group, Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe, is finally warming up to crypto. After years of brushing it off as too risky and too unstable, the institution is now preparing to let nearly 50 million customers buy and sell digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum from inside their regular banking app. No new apps, no third-party wallets, just straight through the platform millions already use. The rollout is expected by mid-2026 and is being built by DekaBank, Sparkassen’s asset manager, which already holds a crypto custody license under German law. That gives the whole project a layer of legal protection most crypto startups could only dream of. From Skeptic to Onboard It wasn’t long ago that Sparkassen was warning people to steer clear of crypto entirely. In 2023, the board was still convinced the risks were too high—concerns ranged from wild price swings to fraud, to a lack of regulation. But a few things changed. First, the EU introduced MiCA, giving banks a proper framework to work with. Second, competitors started stepping into the space, and customers began asking why Sparkassen wasn’t keeping up. People weren’t just curious. They were ready. Matthias Dießl, representing the Bavarian branch of Sparkassen, admitted that customer interest was too big to ignore. In a world where financial services are constantly evolving, staying silent on crypto started to look more like falling behind than playing it safe. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 How It Will Work Instead of directing users to outside exchanges, Sparkassen will let people buy and sell crypto directly within their existing mobile banking apps. No separate onboarding, no extra KYC checks. That’s a big deal in terms of accessibility. And because the backend is powered by DekaBank, customers don’t have to worry about where their funds are going or who’s holding them. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.13T24h7d30d1yAll time This isn’t a flashy, hype-driven rollout. Sparkassen says it won’t offer investment advice or market the service heavily. But it will include clear warnings about the risks. The bank wants to provide access, not encouragement. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Everyone Else Is Doing It Too Sparkassen is joining a growing list of banks across Europe that are taking crypto seriously. Deutsche Bank is deep into custody services. Börse Stuttgart runs the Bison app, one of Germany’s most active crypto trading platforms. Even Volksbanken, one of the more traditional names in German banking, is experimenting with crypto pilots. EthereumPriceMarket CapETH$300.35B24h7d30d1yAll time Elsewhere in the EU, banks in Luxembourg and France are testing tokenized assets and applying for MiCA licenses. What was once seen as niche is becoming part of regular banking infrastructure, especially now that the rules are clearer and the demand is louder. Not Without Caution Sparkassen hasn’t thrown caution out the window. German regulators flagged nearly 9,000 suspicious crypto-related transactions in 2024 alone. Financial crime remains a top concern, especially when crypto is involved. That’s one reason Sparkassen is building on its own infrastructure instead of outsourcing. It’s a way to stay in control while expanding into new territory. Why This Move Matters Letting millions of everyday users access crypto through a traditional bank is a big deal. It removes friction, adds legitimacy, and forces other institutions to reconsider where they stand. For customers, it means they can finally explore digital assets without needing to dive into unfamiliar platforms. And for Sparkassen, it’s a clear signal: crypto is no longer something to ignore. It’s now something you build for. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Sparkassen will allow 50 million customers to trade crypto directly from their banking app by 2026. DekaBank, which holds a German crypto custody license, is building the infrastructure behind the rollout. The shift follows growing demand, clearer EU regulation under MiCA, and increased competition from other banks. Users won’t need new apps or extra KYC steps, making access easier and more secure for mainstream customers. Sparkassen plans a cautious rollout with risk warnings, maintaining control by using in-house systems instead of outsourcing. The post Sparkassen to Let 50 Million Germans Trade Crypto by 2026 appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Bitcoin and Ethereum both posted modest gains in the past week, with BTC rising 6.2% and ETH up by 9.6%. However, momentum appears to have paused at the start of the new week. As of Monday, Bitcoin trades just above $107,000 after a slight 0.6% daily dip, while Ethereum has remained flat over the past 24 hours. Analysts have turned to blockchain data and macro signals for cues on where the market may head next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Onchain Trend Recent insights from CryptoQuant Quicktake platform contributor Amr Taha provide some context behind the price action. In a detailed post, Taha noted that Ethereum inflows to Binance have continued for five consecutive days, a trend that could suggest either rising sell pressure or repositioning by major players. At the same time, data from Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) Net Position Realized Cap shows a notable reversal, increasing from negative $49 billion to over $5 billion. This pattern is typically associated with increased activity from retail investors, especially during periods of upward price movement. Taha noted: Historically, spikes in (STH) occur near potential market tops, as retail investors tend to FOMO into Bitcoin rallies. While this doesn’t necessarily signal a reversal, it has often preceded short-term corrections or periods of sideways consolidation. Bitcoin’s steady climb in June, despite occasional pullbacks, appears to have encouraged smaller investors to re-enter the market. In the case of Ethereum, another CryptoQuant analyst, “crypto sunmoon,” pointed to continued accumulation by long-term holders during last month’s price consolidation. This suggests a different dynamic is at play on the Ethereum side, with more patient capital building positions amid ongoing price suppression. Long-term holder accumulation often indicates growing confidence in an asset’s future, even if current market conditions appear lackluster. US Policy and Macro Risk Add Layers to Market Outlook Beyond market behavior, external factors may also shape crypto price action. Amr Taha highlighted recent political developments in the United States, particularly former President Donald Trump’s announcement of a proposed Senate bill promising wide-reaching tax cuts. The bill, which excludes taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security income, could lead to an increase in consumer liquidity. If passed, this could impact investor appetite across both traditional and digital markets by temporarily boosting household spending power. However, not everybody is convinced of the bill’s long-term implications. Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned that the measure, if not accompanied by spending cuts, could expand the federal deficit and lead to economic instability over time. Large fiscal imbalances often have ripple effects on monetary policy, potentially affecting interest rates, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment, all of which can influence investor behavior in crypto markets. Taha concluded: Geopolitical disturbances can significantly impact investor sentiment. In response, investors might reconsider their positions in asset markets, possibly moving away from riskier assets and equities toward more stable options like bonds or safe-haven currencies. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

🚨 Alerta de Liquidez: Repos disparam 11.000% em um único dia — Estresse volta aos mercados? Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado Financeiro, Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE Na virada de junho para julho de 2025, o mercado financeiro global foi surpreendido por um movimento técnico extremamente raro: os acordos de recompra overnight (Overnight Repos) registrados pelo Federal Reserve saltaram de níveis residuais para impressionantes US$ 11,075 bilhões em apenas 24 horas — uma alta de mais de 11.000%. O gráfico da FRED mostra com clareza o desvio abrupto, ocorrido no dia 30 de junho de 2025, indicando uma forte demanda emergencial por liquidez de curtíssimo prazo por parte de instituições financeiras. 🧩 O que são os repos e por que isso importa? Os overnight repos são acordos de recompra em que instituições financeiras trocam temporariamente títulos do Tesouro por liquidez em dólares, prometendo recomprá-los no dia seguinte. Normalmente utilizados como ferramenta de gestão de caixa ou contenção de choques de liquidez, seu aumento abrupto sinaliza estresse financeiro, aversão ao risco interbancário e/ou deterioração de balanços. 📌 O que está acontecendo nos bastidores? Além dos dados de repos: O uso da Janela de Desconto (Discount Window) também atingiu o maior patamar desde o colapso do SVB em março de 2023, segundo dados internos do Fed. Os empréstimos emergenciais via BTFP e outras linhas de crédito de emergência voltaram a subir, ainda que discretamente. Tudo isso acontece em meio a um ambiente de: Alta concentração de risco em ativos tecnológicos; Forte queda no DXY (-10% no ano); Queda acentuada no crédito corporativo de alto rendimento (high yield bonds); Crescente expectativa de corte de juros para setembro (segundo Goldman, UBS, Jefferies, entre outros). 📉 Impactos nos mercados financeiros 🪙 XAU/USD (Ouro) Esse tipo de disfunção tende a ser altamente positivo para o ouro. A busca por liquidez e segurança normalmente leva investidores a aumentarem a exposição ao metal. O suporte em US$ 3.240 permanece firme, com potencial rompimento de US$ 3.400 caso haja nova rodada de pânico. A volatilidade implícita está baixa (GVZ < 15%), favorecendo compras táticas via opções. 💵 Dólar (DXY) A disparada dos repos sugere enfraquecimento estrutural na confiança interbancária, o que reduz o apetite global por dólares. O DXY já está em sua pior performance semestral desde 1973, e novas pressões podem acelerar essa queda. 📈 Mercado de Treasuries Forte demanda por liquidez geralmente vem acompanhada de compra intensa de Treasuries curtos (2Y–5Y). Isso achataria a curva e reforçaria o cenário de corte de juros antecipado. 🏦 Bancos e Crédito O aumento do uso da Janela de Desconto pode indicar que algumas instituições estão enfrentando dificuldades de funding. Potencial risco de problemas bancários latentes voltarem à tona, sobretudo em bancos médios e regionais dos EUA. 📆 O que esperar nos próximos dias? Evento Data Relevância Discurso de Jerome Powell 1º de julho Pode comentar diretamente o movimento nos repos ISM Manufacturing PMI 2 de julho Sinaliza saúde do setor industrial Payroll de junho 4 de julho Catalisador-chave para corte de juros Deadline das tarifas Trump 9 de julho Risco inflacionário e de guerra comercial FOMC e Projeções Econômicas 30 de julho Pode oficializar mudança de postura monetária 🔍 Opinião do analista Igor Pereira O salto abrupto nos repos é um alerta silencioso, mas potente, de que há estresse latente dentro do sistema bancário dos EUA. Esses movimentos não acontecem por acaso, e sempre precedem períodos de turbulência ou intervenção. Para traders e investidores, esse é o momento de: Reduzir exposição a ativos de risco (ações pequenas, bonds high yield); Aumentar proteção com ouro (XAU/USD) e Treasuries curtos (2Y–5Y); Monitorar atentamente dados de crédito, liquidez e swaps bancários. O Fed provavelmente tentará minimizar o impacto, mas o mercado já está se adiantando, e a curva de juros começa a precificar um cenário mais dovish — ou até de emergência. 📌 Resumo:

Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,485 zone. ETH is now consolidating gains and might soon aim for a move above the $2,520 resistance. Ethereum started a fresh upward move above the $2,465 level. The price is trading above $2,460 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,450 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it remains stable above the $2,400 zone in the near term. Ethereum Price Eyes Fresh Gains Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,440 support level, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to clear the $2,460 and $2,480 resistance levels to move into a positive zone. The bulls even pushed the price above the $2,500 zone. However, the bears were active near the $2,520 level. A high was formed at $2,522 and the price is now consolidating gains. The price dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,435 swing low to the $2,522 high. Ethereum price is now trading above $2,460 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,450 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,435 swing low to the $2,522 high. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $2,520 level. The next key resistance is near the $2,550 level. The first major resistance is near the $2,600 level. A clear move above the $2,600 resistance might send the price toward the $2,680 resistance. An upside break above the $2,680 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,750 resistance zone or even $2,800 in the near term. Downside Break In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,520 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,450 level and the trend line. The first major support sits near the $2,420 zone. A clear move below the $2,420 support might push the price toward the $2,400 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,350 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $2,320. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $2,420 Major Resistance Level – $2,520

Market tactician Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) has put a statistical spotlight on Bitcoin’s habit of dozing through June before rewarding – and sometimes punishing – traders in the following quarter. “BTC June has historically been a pretty slow month,” he wrote, noting that the just-ended period was no exception, with spot prices meandering in a narrow band and finishing “pretty flat.” The comment was accompanied by a Coinglass heat-map of monthly returns that reaches back to 2013 and vividly illustrates the summer pattern he is talking about. What July Hides For Bitcoin The numbers support the observation. According to the Coinglass dataset, the mean return for June over the past twelve years is essentially zero (-0.12 %), while July posts a respectable +7.56% on average and an even stronger +8.90 % on the median. August cools to a modest +1.75% mean, and September is where the sell-side pressure historically bites, averaging -3.77% with a negative median of -4.35%. A simple frequency count underscores the asymmetry: July has finished green in eight of the last twelve years, whereas August and September managed only four positive outcomes each. Years that veterans still recall – 2017’s +65.32 % August melt-up followed by a -7.44 % September slide, or 2020’s +24.03 % July rally that surrendered to a -7.51 % September pullback – appear to have etched the “big flush-out” narrative into collective memory. Daan’s takeaway is behavioural rather than predictive: “August & September are where we often see a big flush-out but are also the dips you often want to be buying into the end-of-the-year rally… it’s good to be aware of these seasonalities. That way you can focus more on the larger timeframe and won’t get spooked or get over-excited too easily.” The comment arrives just as Bitcoin tests a cluster of long-timeframe resistances. In a post on Saturday he reminded followers that BTC is “close to all-time high but at resistance… [it] is yet to close a weekly or more than two consecutive daily candles above that resistance. Once it does, we can start getting excited for a larger move.” The seasonality conversation matters because it collides with a crowded macro calendar and a notoriously illiquid holiday stretch. While historical averages do not guarantee future performance, the heat-map suggests that directional conviction often returns in October – the best-performing month on the table with a +21.89 % mean. For traders, that leaves a two-month corridor in which whipsaw moves are common and positioning discipline becomes paramount. Daan extends the framework to altcoins via the TOTAL3 index (crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ether). “The TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap has held on to its local support but is still not showing any clear trend… to really get this high timeframe move going you want to break those local highs above the ~$950 B mark. At that point you can start aiming for cycle highs.” Whether 2025 repeats the seasonality script will hinge on the macro environment, ETF inflows and, above all, Bitcoin’s ability to convert resistance into fresh price discovery. Until that weekly close arrives, seasoned traders appear content to keep summer expectations firmly tethered to the data – exactly as Daan recommends. At press time, BTC traded at $107,344.

📉 Cautela ou corte agressivo? Bancos divergem sobre próximos passos do Fed em 2025 Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado – Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE A mais recente tabela do Wall Street Journal com as projeções de 18 instituições financeiras globais sobre os próximos movimentos do Federal Reserve revela um cenário de divergência profunda quanto ao timing e à intensidade dos cortes de juros esperados para 2025. Enquanto alguns bancos como MUFG, UBS e Wells Fargo projetam cortes de até 100 pontos-base (bps) já a partir de julho ou setembro, casas como Bank of America, BNP Paribas e Morgan Stanley não esperam cortes neste ano — evidenciando a incerteza que domina o ambiente macro dos EUA. 📊 Visão geral das projeções para 2025 Corte em setembro: Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, RBC, UBS e Wells Fargo (com cortes de 75–100 bps) Corte em dezembro: Barclays, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Nomura, LH Meyer, Oxford Economics (em geral 25 bps) Corte em outubro: S&P Global e TD Securities (50 bps) Corte já em julho: MUFG (100 bps) Sem cortes: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas 💥 Impactos no mercado financeiro global 🪙 Ouro (XAU/USD) Expectativas de corte agressivo, principalmente a partir de setembro, reforçam pressão compradora no ouro, apesar da consolidação recente. O nível de suporte técnico se mantém entre US$ 3.280 e US$ 3.300, com retomada esperada após Payroll e ISM. Opções estão baratas — volatilidade implícita abaixo da média histórica favorece proteção de downside ou compra via call spreads. 💵 Dólar (DXY) O índice DXY já acumula queda de mais de 10% no ano, seu pior início desde 1973. Um corte antecipado (julho ou setembro) poderia acelerar a desvalorização, principalmente frente a moedas emergentes e commodities-linked. 📉 Treasuries O mercado de juros já precifica 2 a 3 cortes em 2025. Com yields do 10Y recuando para a faixa de 4,25%, há espaço para forte valorização dos títulos longos caso os cortes comecem antes do esperado. 📈 Ações e Risco Com expectativas de estímulo monetário, o rali de Nasdaq e S&P500 deve continuar enquanto não houver reversão dos fundamentos. O setor de tecnologia e IA permanece como líder, mas o início do blackout de recompra em julho pode gerar maior volatilidade. 📅 Principais datas e catalisadores Evento Data Relevância ISM Manufacturing (junho) 2 de julho Avalia força da indústria Payroll (junho) 4 de julho Direciona o corte de julho Deadline tarifas Trump 9 de julho Risco inflacionário/comercial Temporada de lucros Q2 meados de julho Confirma saúde corporativa FOMC (reunião Fed) 30 de julho Atualização de tom e projeções 🧠 Opinião do analista Igor Pereira A divergência nas projeções mostra que o Fed está operando no escuro, e o mercado também. Em minha visão, há espaço para até 75 pontos-base de corte em 2025, com início provável em setembro, condicionado à deterioração nos dados de emprego e inflação persistentemente abaixo da meta. O mais importante agora é o Payroll de junho. Um número fraco, aliado à desaceleração da atividade, pode forçar Powell a preparar o mercado para um corte já em julho — movimento que fortaleceria ainda mais o ouro e pressionaria o dólar. Recomendo ao trader/investidor: Manter exposição gradual a ouro e ativos defensivos; Considerar posições longas em Treasuries entre 5 e 10 anos; Reduzir posições em dólar frente a moedas como EUR, CHF e AUD; Focar em operações táticas com base nos eventos de julho.

🌐 Trimestre de Euforia: Ações, Cripto, Ouro e Títulos disparam enquanto o dólar vive seu pior início de ano desde 1973 Análise PREMIUM Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro – Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE O segundo trimestre de 2025 encerrou com um forte rali coordenado nos mercados globais, marcado por valorização expressiva em ações, ouro, Bitcoin, petróleo e títulos públicos dos EUA, enquanto o dólar sofreu uma das maiores desvalorizações trimestrais das últimas décadas. Esse cenário, aparentemente desconectado da realidade macroeconômica frágil dos Estados Unidos, tem uma explicação técnica: “bad news is good news” voltou ao centro da tese de risco, com mercados interpretando dados ruins como garantia de cortes de juros iminentes pelo Federal Reserve. 📈 Desempenho dos ativos no 2º trimestre de 2025 Ativo/Indicador Desempenho no trimestre Destaques Nasdaq 100 +11,6% Melhor trimestre desde Q1 2023 S&P 500 +8,9% Fechamento em máximas históricas Bitcoin (BTC) +32,4% Máxima mensal recorde Ouro (XAU/USD) Lateralizado (~US$ 3.320) Pressionado apesar do dólar fraco Petróleo (WTI) +10,2% em junho Melhor mês desde set/2023 Dólar (DXY) -7,8% no trimestre Pior trimestre desde 2022 Treasuries (curva 10Y) -17 bps Demanda forte por proteção 🔍 O que explica esse comportamento sincronizado? Queda da incerteza política e comercial global A trégua nas tensões entre Israel e Irã, o adiamento de tarifas americanas (data crítica: 9 de julho) e o arquivamento de projetos como o S899 reduziram a percepção de risco geopolítico. Fraqueza nos dados macro dos EUA Indicadores de atividade (ISM, payroll, vendas no varejo) decepcionaram, tanto no campo hard data quanto soft data, reforçando a expectativa de que o Fed será forçado a cortar juros. Alta expectativa de cortes em 2026, com 2025 se tornando “vivo” Embora a projeção do Fed continue em 2–3 cortes em 2025, os mercados começaram a antecipar o primeiro corte para setembro, e agora quase 20% já apostam em corte em julho, dependendo do Payroll desta semana. Fluxo técnico em ações: recomposição via Mag7 e inteligência artificial Embora as “Magnificent 7” tenham liderado o trimestre, ainda estão atrás do S&P 493 no acumulado do ano. Ainda assim, a expectativa é que os relatórios de GOOGL, MSFT e AMZN no fim de julho tragam novo fôlego ao tema de infraestrutura de IA. 🪙 Impacto direto sobre o ouro (XAU/USD) Apesar do dólar fraco, o ouro não conseguiu romper novas máximas nos últimos dois meses, sendo pressionado por: Realização técnica após o rali de março e abril; Entrada de capital mais forte em ativos de risco (ações e cripto); Falhas de rompimento acima de US$ 3.400; Rompimento da média de 50 dias, com suporte sendo testado na zona de US$ 3.200. Contudo, a estrutura de alta permanece intacta, com base no canal de alta de médio prazo. 📌 Próximos catalisadores para julho 📉 ISM Manufacturing – terça-feira (2/jul) Deve sinalizar desaceleração adicional na indústria americana. 👷‍♂️ Payroll de junho – quinta-feira (4/jul) Projeção de 113 mil novos empregos. Um número fraco pode antecipar corte em julho. 🧾 Decisão sobre tarifas (9/jul) Fim da pausa tarifária decretada por Trump pode reacender risco de guerra comercial. 📊 Temporada de lucros Q2 (meados de julho) Consenso projeta crescimento modesto de 4% no lucro por ação. Expectativas estão baixas. 💬 Reunião do FOMC – 29 e 30 de julho Embora sem corte esperado, Powell pode preparar o mercado para ação em setembro. 🧠 Opinião do analista Igor Pereira O mercado vive um clássico movimento de "rally no muro de preocupações" — os riscos permanecem, mas são sistematicamente ignorados enquanto a liquidez global e a expectativa de cortes de juros sustentam os ativos de risco. O investidor precisa entender que o atual ambiente não é de euforia irracional, mas sim de rotina pragmática do mercado: enquanto o Fed hesita, o mercado antecipa. Isso pode continuar, mas a partir de agosto o cenário tende a se complicar, com: Blackout de recompra de ações; Risco político elevado (eleições de meio termo, reformas fiscais); Volatilidade sazonal mais elevada. Sugiro cautela tática e diversificação: Aumentar exposição a ouro em suporte; Rebalancear portfólio com proteção (opções, ouro, Treasuries curtos); Observar com atenção tarifas, dados de emprego e lucros corporativos.

Bitcoin price started trading in a range below the $108,800 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for a move above the $108,000 resistance. Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $108,800 zone. The price is trading below $107,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $107,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $105,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Gains Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $105,500 zone. BTC gained pace and was able to climb above the $106,500 and $107,200 levels to enter a positive zone. The bulls pushed the price above the $108,000 resistance and the price tested the $108,800 zone. A high was formed at $108,792 and the price recently corrected gains. There was a move below the $107,500 level. A low was formed at $106,800 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a recovery above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $106,800 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $107,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $107,400 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $107,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $108,000 level and the 50% Fib level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $106,800 low. A close above the $108,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $108,800 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $110,000 level. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $108,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $106,800 level. The first major support is near the $106,500 level. The next support is now near the $105,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $105,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,500, below which BTC might gain bearish momentum. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $106,800, followed by $106,500. Major Resistance Levels – $108,000 and $108,800.

On-chain data shows Dogecoin is the only cryptocurrency among the top 10 where investors are currently realizing more losses than profits. Dogecoin Investors Realized $124 Million In Loss Over The Last 24 Hours In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared how the major cryptocurrencies compare against each other in terms of the Realized Loss and Realized Profit metrics. These indicators measure, as their names already imply, the amount of loss/profit that the investors on a given network are realizing through their transactions right now. The metrics work by going through the transfer history of each coin being sold to see what price it was moved at prior to this. If this previous value is less than the price that the coin’s now being sold at, then the token’s sale is leading to profit realization. On the other hand, it being higher suggests loss realization. The Realized Profit sums up the difference between the two prices involved in all sales of the former type, while the Realized Loss does the same for the latter ones. Now, here is the table shared by the analytics firm that shows how the 24-hour values of the two metrics currently stack up for the top 10 coins by market cap: As is visible above, the scale of the Realized Loss and Realized Profit differs greatly between the different assets, but one pattern is consistent: the latter outweighs the former, implying a trend of net profit-taking from the investors. One asset, however, doesn’t fit the mold: Dogecoin. The 24-hour Realized Loss for the memecoin stands at around $132 million, while the Realized Profit is much lower with a value of just $5 million. As such, it would appear that while the participants in the rest of the sector have been harvesting gains, DOGE holders have been panic capitulating at a loss instead. Among these top coins, the investors of Bitcoin have realized the largest profit, with the indicator’s value sitting at a whopping $1.3 billion. The Realized Loss is also restricted to just $33 million for the number one cryptocurrency, indicating selling has been heavily lopsided toward profit-taking. Things are more balanced for Ethereum, the digital asset ranked number two. Its Realized Loss of $18.4 million is roughly half that of its Realized Profit of $35.2 million. The fact that profit realization is so dominant for the likes of Bitcoin, however, might actually be a bearish sign. Historically, such market conditions have made tops more likely. A dominance of loss-taking, on the other hand, can facilitate reversals to the upside. As such, while not a given, Dogecoin may not be in a bad position, at least in this regard. DOGE Price Dogecoin touched the $0.170 mark during the weekend, but the memecoin has seen a retrace under $0.165 to kick off the week.

US regulators and market watchers are eyeing a fresh valuation study that puts XRP on track for a dramatic price surge by 2030. According to Valhil Capital’s deep‑dive report, XRP could climb from its current price into a range between $4,813 and $9,000 in just five years. That forecast hinges on a model that treats XRP not only as a quick way to move money but also as a store of value. Model Weighs Store Of Value According to the Athey & Mitchnick Model used by Valhil Capital, XRP’s role goes way beyond sending payments. The study gives much more weight to people holding XRP like they would gold. In their view, as more folks start treating XRP as a place to park money, fewer coins stay in circulation. That tight supply pushes the price higher. The model blends economic ideas, real‑world trends, and crypto market moves to arrive at its numbers. Key Figures Drive Forecast Based on reports, the model assumes daily transactions on XRP Ledger will hit $700 billion by 2030. It uses a one‑second transaction speed and the current 56.5 billion XRP supply. With a 10% discount rate and a five‑year adoption window, the study pegs a mid‑case price of $4,813 if about 10% of global payments run on XRPL. In a more bullish view, the researchers push store‑of‑value demand to $1 quadrillion, which shoots the price beyond $9,000. Even a $100 trillion demand level would land XRP at $908 per token. Virtuous Cycle Could Fuel Growth Based on reports from Valhil Capital, the so‑called Virtuous Cycle Flywheel could spark a feedback loop. First, higher use of XRP for cross‑border payments and FX trades drives up demand. Then, price gains lure more holders to lock away their coins, shrinking the free float. That scarcity pushes prices even higher. As value climbs, new use cases could pop up, drawing in more users and adding another spin to the cycle. Regulation And Competition Loom Large XRP’s path to mass use isn’t smooth. Legal questions still swirl around its status in the US and elsewhere. That uncertainty may scare off big financial players. Plus, central bank digital currencies, stablecoins, and rival blockchains are all chasing the same slice of the cross‑border market. Valhil Capital calls its forecast “conservative” because it skips markets like derivatives and real estate. Yet it also admits it can’t guess future rules or fresh ways people might use XRP. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Ethereum is trading above $2,400 after enduring several days of volatility and uncertainty. The price has managed to stabilize despite sharp intraday swings, reflecting growing tension between bullish momentum and cautious sentiment. Analysts are now calling for a decisive move, with some expecting a breakout toward higher levels, while others warn of a possible correction if key demand zones fail to hold. On one hand, ETH has shown strength by holding above its short-term support range, suggesting that buyers are stepping in with confidence. Bullish momentum appears to be building, especially as macro sentiment around risk assets begins to recover. On the other hand, opposing views point to weakening volume and lingering macroeconomic risks, which could trigger a deeper retracement if Ethereum fails to sustain current levels. Adding weight to the bullish case is fresh data from CryptoQuant, which highlights a strong accumulation pattern among long-term ETH holders. According to the data, significant buying pressure emerged during the recent consolidation phase, with hodlers steadily increasing their positions. This divergence between price action and accumulation behavior suggests that foundational support for Ethereum remains intact, even as traders await the next major move. Ethereum Accumulation Builds And Market Awaits Breakout Ethereum is struggling to reclaim the $2,500 level, but its ability to hold steady amid ongoing market uncertainty is a sign of underlying strength. For weeks, ETH has traded within a well-defined range between $2,200 and $2,800, with neither bulls nor bears able to take decisive control. This prolonged consolidation has delayed the long-anticipated altseason, which many believe will only begin once Ethereum breaks above key resistance and pushes into higher territory. Despite the lack of clear direction, the macro setup is becoming increasingly interesting. Global markets remain volatile, with shifting interest rate expectations, geopolitical risk, and unpredictable liquidity conditions creating mixed signals across risk assets. Yet Ethereum continues to hold firm, supported not just by technical structure but also by significant long-term holder activity. According to insights from CryptoQuant, a strong accumulation pattern has been detected among Ethereum holders. During the June consolidation phase, long-term investors steadily increased their positions, even as price action remained choppy. This divergence between price and accumulation volume signals growing confidence under the surface. When price consolidates while demand builds, the result is often explosive. With ETH holding key support levels and long-term accumulation rising, the stage may be set for a major move. If Ethereum can push through $2,500 and reclaim higher ground, it could serve as the ignition point for a broader altcoin rally. Until then, the market remains in a state of quiet buildup. Something big is coming—and Ethereum is at the center of it. ETH Struggles With Resistance Amid Mixed Signals Ethereum is currently trading at $2,470 after failing to hold intraday gains above the $2,500 level. The 12-hour chart shows ETH consolidating within a broader range, with $2,200 acting as strong support and $2,800 as key resistance. Despite several bullish attempts, Ethereum has struggled to reclaim higher ground, and the rejection near the 100-period SMA (green line at $2,537) signals persistent selling pressure near resistance. The price is currently trading above the 200 SMA ($2,170) and just under the 50 SMA ($2,507), which now acts as a short-term resistance. This tight positioning of moving averages suggests ETH is at a decision point—either it breaks through $2,500 to target $2,600 and higher, or it risks rolling over if bulls fail to hold momentum. Volume remains relatively flat, indicating indecision. The overall structure still favors a neutral-to-bullish bias, especially if price continues to close above the 200 SMA. However, a breakdown below $2,400 would increase the risk of a retest of the $2,200 support zone. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

A seasoned crypto analyst has warned that the recent Bitcoin (BTC) price action may be setting the stage for major liquidity traps, echoing patterns seen in past cycles. As the leading cryptocurrency aims for new all-time highs, the pundit suggests that market makers could be deliberately engineering conditions for bear traps before triggering a powerful breakout. Bitcoin Path To ATH Riddled With Liquidity Traps Crypto market expert Luca has shared intriguing insights into Bitcoin’s latest price behavior, arguing that the market may be entering a classic liquidity trap phase allegedly orchestrated by market makers. The analyst stated in an X (formerly Twitter) post that Bitcoin’s price action since topping out in late May 2025 has followed a suspicious pattern. He noted that despite experiencing several price rallies, not a single local high has been swept in the past few weeks. Luca suggests that this rare price structure could be a deliberate setup, giving the illusion of stability and offering false conviction in bearish positions. The analyst warns that market makers have possibly influenced this market behavior by baiting shorts into entering or holding positions with the assumption that Bitcoin could continue to be capped below resistance. Ideally, this underpins the theory that bear traps are potentially being set as BTC gears up for its next bullish rally. Notably, multiple key resistance levels are now stacked tightly between $109,000 and $112,000, as highlighted on the analyst’s 4-hour Bitcoin chart. While BTC has been consolidating just below these levels, forming what appears to be a potential base, Luca argues that this price behavior is not a coincidence. Rather than market weakness, he believes the subdued price action reflects a calculated effort by market makers to encourage bearish complacency. The pundit interprets the deliberate avoidance of liquidity above these resistance lines as a signal that deeper bear traps are possibly being laid. Luca has revealed that this setup could be laying the groundwork for a sudden short squeeze, potentially igniting a sharp move toward a new all-time high for Bitcoin. Analyst Says BTC 2024 Breakout Back In Play Adding historical context to his analysis, Luca compares the current market structure to a prolonged consolidation phase observed throughout 2024. On the second 8-hour chart, a clear trendline of resistance can be seen capping Bitcoin’s upside for most of the previous year. The chart shows that price action consistently failed to break above the descending barrier, with multiple attempts being rejected between March and October. Each rejection was marked by unswept highs—similar to the current market setup and suggesting that shorts were systematically being protected. This compression finally resolved in November 2024, when Bitcoin erupted through the resistance and launched a parabolic move to new highs. That breakout was fueled by the exact mechanism Luca now believes is in motion. With historical patterns now resurfacing, the analyst maintains that Bitcoin’s ongoing suppression and untouched highs are part of a blueprint that indicates a possible bullish move toward uncharted price territory.

🔔 Foco no Fed: Jerome Powell discursará nesta terça-feira (1º de julho) às 10h30 (Brasília GMT -3) e pode direcionar mercados Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro – ExpertFX School O presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, participará de um painel de discussão de política monetária nesta terça-feira, 1º de julho, às 9h30 (horário de Nova York / 10h30 no Brasil). O evento ocorre em um momento de expectativa crescente por cortes de juros ainda em 2025, com o mercado já precificando quase 20% de chance de corte em julho e corte como praticamente certo para setembro, segundo dados da CME FedWatch Tool. 🧭 O que esperar do discurso de Powell Embora o evento não seja uma audiência formal no Congresso ou uma coletiva do FOMC, qualquer nuance no tom ou termos utilizados por Powell pode afetar diretamente ativos de risco, especialmente diante da proximidade do Payroll de junho (quinta-feira) e da recente queda dos rendimentos dos Treasuries. Ponto-chave: Powell poderá comentar sobre: Perspectiva de cortes diante de sinais de desaceleração no mercado de trabalho; Impacto das tarifas comerciais de Trump na inflação e cadeia global; Reação do Fed frente à fragilidade nos dados de consumo; Possibilidade de antecipação do ciclo de cortes para julho. 📊 Impacto nos mercados financeiros ▶️ Dólar (DXY) Se Powell soar mais dovish, o dólar poderá ceder frente a moedas G10 e emergentes, reforçando fluxo para ativos de risco. ▶️ Ouro (XAU/USD) Um tom brando por parte do Fed tende a ser altista para o ouro, sobretudo após o recente teste da média de 50 dias e o suporte em US$ 3.240. Traders institucionais estão montando posições defensivas via opções, conforme análise recente do Goldman Sachs. ▶️ Ações e índices (S&P500, Nasdaq) Expectativas de cortes acelerados tendem a favorecer ações de tecnologia, consumo e setores alavancados, mas qualquer ambiguidade pode gerar volatilidade intradiária. ▶️ Treasuries (10Y e 2Y) O mercado já antecipou parte da flexibilização monetária. Powell mais dovish pode levar os yields a caírem ainda mais, com foco na faixa dos 4,10% a 4,20% para o 10Y. 🧠 Opinião do analista Igor Pereira Com o Fed caminhando em direção a um ciclo de afrouxamento, o mercado buscará qualquer pista concreta sobre o “timing” do primeiro corte. Powell tem sido cauteloso, mas os dados do mercado de trabalho e a política fiscal de Trump estão criando pressão crescente para antecipar estímulos. A fala desta terça pode ser o último evento relevante antes do Payroll de junho (quinta-feira), portanto, traders devem ajustar suas posições e exposição à volatilidade a partir das 9h de terça (horário NY). Sugiro especial atenção a operações em XAU/USD, EUR/USD, S&P500 e pares ligados ao iene (USD/JPY), que tradicionalmente reagem com força às falas do presidente do Fed.

Log in to today’s North American session Recap for June 30, 2025 Month-end flows notably influenced the session, leading to another instance of US Dollar underperformance. Equity markets, while ending the month on a positive note, experienced significant volatility into the close, as major participants leveraged the typically higher liquidity around monthly settlement prices for portfolio rebalancing. Global indices are now closing above their early 2025 highs, completing what has been a volatile yet ultimately successful month of June. Commodities observed a mixed performance today. Oil and other energy products saw declines, while Gold staged a notable rally throughout the session, closing just above the key $3,300 mark. The broader macroeconomic landscape remained relatively calm. However, renewed tensions have emerged in Iran, and we will provide further analysis should the situation escalate. Read More: Seasonal Flows for the month of July close For all Market moving events, check the MarketPulse Economic Calendar For all Market moving events, check the MarketPulse Economic Calendar The overnight/tomorrow session will see more economic data releases, mostly with the US PMIs giving more clarity on the current economic picture for the US. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is releasing tomorrow at 10:00 A.M. ET, expected at 48.8. The less market moving Chicago PMI came at a fairly big downward surprise with 40.3 vs 43 expected, markets may be preparing for some surprise in tomorrow's release. Elsewhere, markets are awaiting for the Caixin PMI release from China tonight 21:45 (exp 49), which could be market moving particularly for APAC Currencies and Equity markets around the globe that have been performing quite dominantly in the past month. For Euro traders, get ready for the Eurozone Inflation data release at 5:00 in the overnight session – We will have more clarity if the ECB has more work to do on their Monetary Policy or if the pause gets confirmed further. Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin rompe os US$ 100 mil e aciona nova fase de euforia: número de carteiras milionárias dispara Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro – ExpertFX School O preço do Bitcoin (BTC) ultrapassou nesta segunda-feira a marca dos US$ 107.623,70, consolidando um dos rompimentos mais fortes dos últimos dois anos. O movimento confirma uma nova fase do ciclo de alta, sustentado por fundamentos técnicos sólidos e dados on-chain que revelam um crescimento explosivo no número de carteiras com saldo acima de US$ 1 milhão, conforme apontam Glassnode e Coinbase Institutional. 💼 Expansão institucional em andamento Segundo os dados das últimas semanas: O número de carteiras com mais de US$ 1 milhão cresceu mais de 36% no acumulado do último mês; Endereços com mais de 100 BTC também aumentaram, apontando para acúmulo por fundos, escritórios de investimento e tesourarias corporativas; A queda na oferta de BTC em corretoras atingiu mínima histórica, reforçando a tese de retenção e iliquidez de oferta. 🧠 Leitura institucional: o que está por trás da alta O movimento atual combina três fatores decisivos: 1. Rompimento técnico de múltiplas resistências Superação dos US$ 100.000 validou uma estrutura de alta de longo prazo; Volume ascendente e candle semanal de força confirmam quebra de topo histórico com forte convicção; Alvo técnico imediato projetado entre US$ 117.000 e US$ 132.000. 2. Demanda global ancorada na desconfiança sobre moedas fiduciárias Países emergentes com inflação elevada continuam pressionando demanda local por BTC como hedge (dados recentes mostram alta de 134,5% do BTC em bolívares venezuelanos – VES, e 44,6% em pesos argentinos – ARS); O BTC se torna uma alternativa real à poupança em moedas frágeis, sobretudo diante de crises fiscais e monetárias. 3. Fluxo institucional acelerado após estabilização regulatória O projeto de lei S899 foi arquivado nos EUA, o que aliviou as pressões sobre o mercado; ETFs de Bitcoin spot estão absorvendo liquidez recorde; Grandes gestoras, incluindo BlackRock, Fidelity, e VanEck, estão ampliando exposição no balanço patrimonial. 📉 Oportunidade para o trader: onde estão os próximos níveis Com base nos modelos de análise técnica e comportamento histórico pós-topo, os níveis-chave agora são: Nível técnico Interpretação US$ 100.000 Suporte psicológico validado US$ 107.000 Preço atual, início de expansão vertical US$ 117.000 – 118.500 Primeiro alvo de extensão US$ 132.000 – 135.000 Alvo de euforia total caso o fluxo continue 📊 Impacto no mercado geral Mercado de altcoins começa a reagir, mas ainda em fase atrasada; Ouro (XAU/USD) perdeu tração temporária com migração de liquidez para o BTC; Treasuries e dólar (DXY) seguem estáveis, indicando que a alta é endógena ao criptoativo, sem correlação momentânea com aversão ao risco. 🧠 Opinião do analista Igor Pereira A quebra da barreira dos US$ 100.000 marca a transição do Bitcoin para uma nova era: ele deixa de ser apenas um "hedge alternativo" e assume um papel central como ativo de reserva global digital. A leitura institucional é clara: acumulação continua em ritmo acelerado, e a demanda de longo prazo por escassez digital está apenas começando. O número de carteiras com mais de US$ 1 milhão não apenas reflete essa confiança — ele antecipa nova fase de distribuição de riqueza no ecossistema cripto, onde o capital institucional dita o ritmo.

Bitcoin continues to maintain its upward trajectory following a minor correction, now trading at $107,251, reflecting a 2.3% increase over the past week. Although still trailing its May all-time high of $111,000 by around 4%, the asset’s price action signals a notable return of momentum. The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, has seen renewed trading activity in recent weeks as investor sentiment oscillates between bullish optimism and profit-taking behavior. According to new on-chain data analyzed by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical phase that demands greater attention from market participants. Open Interest Spikes Signal Potential Profit-Taking Zones In his analysis titled “Binance Open Interest Spikes and Long-Term Holder De-risking: Bitcoin is Approaching a Turning Point”, Taha highlights two developing trends: repeated spikes in open interest on Binance and a significant drawdown in long-term holders’ exposure. Both indicators, he suggests, reflect changing market dynamics that could influence Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. One of the key observations from Taha’s analysis is the behavior of Binance’s 24-hour open interest (OI), which has exceeded 6% for the third time in two months. Historical patterns indicate that previous occurrences on May 26 and June 10 were followed by short-term price corrections or periods of consolidation. These spikes often indicate an increase in leveraged trading positions, which tend to precede short-term profit-taking as traders seek to lock in gains. This trend may suggest that Bitcoin is entering another phase of heightened volatility where rapid shifts in market sentiment could influence price direction. The presence of leveraged positions, particularly at elevated price levels, increases the likelihood of sudden liquidations or pullbacks. While this does not confirm an imminent reversal, it marks a zone where caution may be warranted, especially for short-term traders. Such spikes in open interest often act as precursors to more conservative positioning or brief market cooling periods. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Reduce Risk Exposure In addition to rising speculative activity, a separate trend tracked by Taha focuses on the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). Data shows that the LTH Net Position Realized Cap, a measure of the realized value of Bitcoin held by these investors, has declined sharply, falling from over $57 billion to just $3.5 billion. This reduction points to active profit-taking among more strategic investors, possibly in response to macroeconomic developments or uncertainty surrounding the current market cycle. While this shift in behavior does not automatically imply a bearish outlook, it suggests that experienced investors are trimming exposure after a notable price rally. Historically, long-term holders have exhibited a higher degree of market foresight, making this activity worth noting. Combined with elevated open interest and a potential cooling-off period, these developments highlight the possibility of increased short-term volatility without fundamentally altering the long-term bullish structure of Bitcoin’s market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Mt Carbine tungsten project in Queensland, Australia. Image: EQ Resources. EQ Resources Limited (ASX: EQR) announced Friday that it has received a Letter of Interest to support the Mt Carbine tungsten expansion project from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM). The historic Mt Carbine tungsten mine is located in Far North Queensland — it was discovered at the end of the 19th century and was a major tungsten producer in the 1970s and 80s. The deposit is still relatively unexplored, and according to EQ Resources’ website, there is considerable exploration potential for new tungsten mineralisation in the mining leases and surrounding exploration tenements. Under EXIM’s new Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative (SCRI), the Letter of Interest states that EXIM is considering a 10-year debt facility of up to $34 million for the capital expansion and further development of the mine. EQ Resources, formerly Speciality Metals International, announced plans to double production capacity at its Mt Carbine operation as soon as funding has been secured. The company also holds 100% ownership of Saloro’s Barruecopardo tungsten mine in Spain. Long-lead items and key equipment for the planned processing plant expansion have been delivered to site, the company said, adding that the capacity expansion provides economies-of-scale and allows the operation to expand the throughput of low-grade ore from the historic low-grade stockpile (>10Mt) as supplement feed to the tungsten ore mined from the open pit and potential future underground. The 2022 Mt Carbine underground scoping study details a development plan for the long-term exploitation of the Mt Carbine tungsten deposit, noting that only 19% of the In-Situ Mt Carbine Mineral Resources are categorised as Ore Reserves and only those were modelled in the current open cut mining schedule. The SCRI seeks to finance overseas mines to develop sources of critical minerals, reducing the United States reliance on China for critical minerals, reducing risk of supply chain disruption from China’s export bans, which sent tungsten prices on the European spot market to the highest level in 12 years last month. Several countries classify tungsten as a critical mineral including the United States, the European Union and Australia. Tungsten is the material of choice for a key defense application – what the military calls penetrators – high-density, armour-piercing projectiles. Its also required in US Department of Defence (DoD) contracts. “We are pleased to work with US EXIM and our US customer base to strengthen resilience in a critical defence- and energy-related supply chain,” EQR executive chairman Oliver Kleinhempel said in a news release. “With two operating mines in Australia and Spain, EQR has positioned itself as a reliable and ambitious partner,” Kleinhempel said. “Recent geopolitical events and aggressive trade policies have contributed to a severe shortage of supply in the tungsten market. EQ Resources is positioned well with its Mt Carbine expansion plans to meet the demand of US customers.”

Bitcoin briefly pushed into the $108,800 level a few hours ago but was once again unable to reclaim higher prices, reinforcing the key resistance just below its all-time high. This rejection has left the market in a state of caution, with investors expecting increased volatility in the coming sessions. As BTC continues to hover below the $109,300 mark, traders are watching closely for signs of either a confirmed breakout or a potential pullback. Adding a new layer to the current setup, top analyst Ted Pillows shared a notable development in Bitcoin dominance. According to Pillows, the Bitcoin Dominance chart is now showing a daily bearish divergence—a classic signal that often precedes a shift in momentum from Bitcoin to altcoins. This divergence occurs when BTC dominance trends higher while momentum indicators begin to weaken, suggesting that Bitcoin’s relative strength may be peaking. For altcoin investors, this could be an early signal of a shift. Historically, bearish divergences in dominance have lead to strong altcoin rallies, as capital begins flowing from BTC into higher-beta assets. While Bitcoin consolidates near resistance, attention may soon shift toward altcoins, setting the stage for a possible altseason. Bitcoin Consolidates As Charts Signal Altcoin Rotation Following the resolution of global tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, Bitcoin surged above the $105,000 level, signaling renewed confidence across global risk markets. The move marked a key recovery from previous uncertainty, with BTC taking back critical support and shifting focus back toward the $110,000 resistance zone. However, despite the initial breakout, Bitcoin has struggled to push into uncharted territory. Price action remains choppy and directionless, with the market hesitating ahead of what many believe could be a decisive move. Analysts continue to call for a breakout, citing strong accumulation trends, improving macroeconomic conditions, and a bullish long-term structure. Yet the inability to break above the $109,300–$110,000 range raises concerns about weakening momentum. The longer Bitcoin remains capped below resistance, the more likely it is that capital may begin to rotate into other parts of the market. Top analyst Ted Pillows recently shared key insights supporting that thesis. According to Pillows, Bitcoin dominance is showing a daily bearish divergence—a classic sign of impending trend reversal. As BTC dominance climbs but momentum weakens, it suggests that Bitcoin’s recent strength may be fading, and a shift toward altcoins could be underway. Historically, bearish divergences in BTC dominance have often preceded sharp corrections in Bitcoin and explosive rallies across the altcoin market. As Bitcoin consolidates and its dominance loses strength, conditions may be forming for the next big altseason. While nothing is guaranteed, the combination of geopolitical relief, market indecision, and technical signals suggests that a sharp rotation could be close. Traders are now watching both BTC price and dominance levels closely, knowing that once momentum shifts, the move could be swift and powerful. ETH/BTC Chart Shows Signs Of Reversal The ETH/BTC weekly chart reveals a prolonged downtrend that has persisted since late 2022, with Ethereum consistently underperforming against Bitcoin. Since peaking above 0.085 BTC in late 2022, the pair has steadily declined, now trading around 0.0228 BTC—a level not seen since 2020. This confirms that Bitcoin has been the clear market leader for nearly two years, adding most of the capital inflow during bullish phases while altcoins, including Ethereum, lagged behind. However, current price action shows early signs that this trend may be nearing its end. ETH/BTC appears to have found a local bottom, just above the 0.02 BTC zone, after a steep drop. Although the pair remains well below the 50 (weekly), 100, and 200 moving averages, the selling momentum has clearly slowed, and volume has begun to stabilize. This phase suggests that a swing could be forming. If Ethereum can reclaim higher support levels and Bitcoin dominance continues to show bearish divergence—as noted in recent market analyses—the ETH/BTC ratio could start trending higher once again. A rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and other altcoins may soon follow, potentially marking the beginning of a new phase in the crypto cycle where altcoins start to outperform. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Talks between the US and Canada appear to have resumed in the latest episode of “TACO” Trump trade drama. During a Friday news conference, Trump announced he was stepping away from negotiations with Canada. In response, the Land of Maple Syrup dropped its plans to implement a Digital Services Tax—one that would have directly impacted many American service-exporting firms. The proposed tax now appears to have been more of a negotiation tactic from Canada aimed at its increasingly unpredictable neighbor. Markets initially reacted sharply to Trump’s announcement on Truth Social, sparking a 900-pip rally. However, the move quickly faded as participants recognized a familiar pattern—these announcements often act as leverage for the US to push for more favorable trade terms. Read More: Seasonal flows for the month of July close USDCAD 1H Chart, June 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD 1H Chart, June 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView The latest move in the currency pair has formed an Hourly Descending Channel (HDC) which may be used as a guide for momentum identification. Any break below current levels will accelerate bearish strength to retest last week lows, with a further falloff finding potential support at 1.35 (Psycholigical Level + Upper bound of May Daily descending channel) Holding above last week lows points at the upper bound of the HDC around 1.3680 in the Pivot Zone seen in the 4H Chart. Watch for lower volumes in this week (except for Thursday with the NFP release) and for more headlines regarding US-Canada trade talks. Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

American Battery Technology Company (NASDAQ: ABAT) soared on Monday after its Tonopah Flats lithium project (TFLP) in Nevada was given “transparency priority” status by the US Federal Permitting Council. With the designation, the Tonopah Flats lithium project is now featured on the FAST-41 permitting dashboard, which ABAT says underscores the project’s role in supporting US-based critical mineral production and energy independence. “We are excited by this selection of our Tonopah Flats lithium project as a FAST-41 critical mineral transparency project,” stated ABAT chief executive officer Ryan Melsert in a press release. The Permitting Council, established in 2015 by Title 41 of the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act (FAST-41), oversees and streamlines federal environmental reviews for critical infrastructure projects. While FAST-41 covered projects receive coordinated project plans and expert support, transparency projects only gain public visibility on the dashboard without additional FAST-41 benefits. “As we are currently working through permitting efforts with multiple federal agencies for the construction of this domestic critical mineral project, the support to coordinate and fast-track these efforts is greatly appreciated,” Melsert added. Shares of American Battery Technology surged 13.4% to $1.66 on the NASDAQ by midday, giving the Reno-based company a market capitalization of $152 million. “This is an exciting time as we work with our colleagues across the federal government to unleash America’s vast energy and mineral resources,” Emily Domenech, Permitting Council executive director, stated. “The Permitting Council stands ready to bring the transparency of our program to these projects, speeding the production of the critical minerals needed for our national and economic security.” Tonopah Flats represents one of three new projects that the Trump administration has added to the FAST-41 permitting dashboard. Large claystone deposit ABAT says this distinction marks a significant milestone in the development of what it considers to be one of the largest identified claystone resource deposits in the country. The project is situated within Nevada’s Big Smoky Valley, an area known for its unique lithium-rich sedimentary claystone. According to an initial SEC S-K 1300 assessment in 2024, the project has in excess of 6 billion tonnes in resources grading 574 ppm lithium. Total amount of claystone processed over life of mine is estimated at 597 million tonnes, averaging 4,111 ppm LHM (lithium hydroxide monohydrate). Based on a 10% discount rate, has a net present value of $4.67 billion. To tap into the Tonopah Flats claystone resource, ABAT has developed an in-house extraction and purification technology that it believes represents a lower-cost, lower-impact solution in contrast to conventional lithium extraction methods. In January 2021, ABAT received a grant from the US Department of Energy to fund the demonstration and scaling of its extraction technologies into a multi-tonne-per-day field demonstration system. It later received an additional grant of $57 million to build, commission and operate a $115 million commercial-scale facility to produce lithium hydroxide monohydrate. Funding access Now with the designation as a transparency priority project, the company said this would be especially beneficial as it is currently engaged with multiple federal agencies for project permitting, noting that Tonopah Flats is situated on land managed by the US Department of Interior. In late April, ABAT received a letter from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) expressing interest in providing a $900 million loan to support the subsequent expansion of its commercial-scale lithium mine and refinery. In late 2024, the battery metals developer also received $144 million from the Department of Energy to build a new commercial-scale lithium-ion battery recycling facility.