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Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) says Jerome Powell has effectively signaled the wind-down of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program—an inflection he argues has historically unlocked altcoin outperformance and could underpin the next broad crypto rally. In a video analysis posted yesterday, Kevin framed Powell’s appearance at the National Association for Business Economics forum yesterday as unusually balance-sheet centric and tantamount to advance guidance: “This man came out today and literally sat there and spoke about the balance sheet the entire time… he telegraphed… we’re probably going to end the quantitative tightening program in the coming months.” He added, “The Fed telegraphs what they’re going to do with monetary policy… they don’t want to come out in surprise rate cuts or surprise rate hikes.” Several experts like BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes and Walter Bloomberg confirmed the interpretation via X. Start Of The Crypto Bull Run Kevin’s core claim is unambiguous: durable altcoin cycles have required a neutral or expanding Fed balance sheet, and QT has marked their demise. “We know the correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and durable altcoin outperformance is literally one-to-one… That’s it. That’s the correlation. It’s one to one. It’s 100% hit rate,” he said, pointing to a multi-year chart of “total others versus Bitcoin” that he has tracked “for years.” According to his read, every time QT has started, altcoins have entered a bear market against BTC; when the balance sheet has shifted to neutral or QE, “altcoin season is able to occur.” The timing around last week’s violent cross-market liquidation reinforced his thesis, in his view. Kevin noted that “as soon as we see a 70–80% crash on altcoins on their USD pairs and then total others versus Bitcoin taps this major support level… three days after that, Powell comes out and telegraphs… we’re going to end [QT] in the coming months.” He stopped short of alleging intent—“I don’t like to go down the rabbit hole of manipulation… it just seems a little odd”—but argued the macro liquidity pivot now appears in sight: “All we know is that the Fed did telegraph that they are going to be ending QT, and that should be happening either by the end of the year or first thing next year.” While his macro read is overtly constructive, Kevin emphasized he is not trading it blindly. ” In practice, he is waiting for validation across two pillars: Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe moving averages and the USDT dominance structure. On Bitcoin, he repeated a rule he has used across cycles: “Anytime Bitcoin has lost the 2-day 200 SMA and EMA, the cycle was over. Anytime Bitcoin has lost the 50-week SMA on the weekly time frame, the cycle was over.” He located the current “cycle validators” around the rising band that, on his charts, spans “$102,000 to $96,500,” with $98,000/$96,000 the approximate line in the sand. “If you break $98K, slash $96.5K on multiple weekly closes… the cycle’s probably over,” he said. The stablecoin gauge—USDT dominance—remains his market metronome. Kevin described a “classic textbook macro descending triangle” in USDT.D with a “flat bottom” near “3.9%–3.7%” and lower highs into two-week moving averages. “There’s a 70–80% chance that this descending triangle ends up breaking down and crypto goes higher,” he said, cautioning that a minority of such formations do break up. “I don’t plan on doing a thing until it does break… I ain’t going to be the guy who sat here this entire time tracking this incredible pattern… and then deviate away from it now.” What To Watch Now Beyond liquidity, Kevin addressed the perennial four-year-cycle debate head-on. By his dashboards—ROI since halving, ROI since cycle bottom—“you’re at the end of the cycle… the four-year cycle’s over.” But he argued that macro still governs whether price must top on schedule. Running a “process of elimination,” he said the backdrop does not currently resemble 2021’s inflation shock or a clear earnings/bubble unraveling, though he acknowledged exogenous risks such as renewed US–China tariff escalation. “Unless something macro-related durably tops this market, there’s still a chance that it goes higher,” he said. “Crypto is not invulnerable to the macro… all markets are literally tied one-to-one to the macro. Period.” Technically, he remains cautious on breadth. He highlighted persistent weekly bearish divergences on Bitcoin, Total2 (large-cap ex-BTC), and Total3 (ex-BTC, ex-ETH), and the failure to secure decisive weekly closes above “120K–125K,” which, in his words, produced “two weekly reversal candles [and] a monthly reversal candle” and “lower highs in the weekly RSI.” The August-to-present message, he said, has been consistent: “Be cautious… If you’re in altcoins from way lower, take some profits… Don’t buy anything right now… wait for a resolution.” Still, the QT call is the pivot he’s watching most closely. “We are at a critical stage in the history of crypto… I want a definitive answer.” At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.79 trillion.

Yesterday, Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that the U.S. central bank should continue lowering interest rates this year to support the labor market — while keeping them high enough to restrain inflation. "Given that inflation risks have become somewhat more contained and the risks to employment have increased, it seems reasonable to continue normalizing policy this year to support the labor market," Collins said Tuesday in remarks prepared for an event at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Her statement came amid ongoing debates about the future of the Fed's monetary policy and its impact on the economy. Collins' speech highlights the complexity of the task facing the central bank: balancing the need to stimulate the labor market with the need to curb inflation, which, despite some decline, remains above target. Her proposal for a gradual reduction in rates — while keeping them at a relatively high level — represents a compromise approach aimed at minimizing risks to both objectives. However, opinions among economists and experts about the Fed's optimal strategy differ. Some argue that the central bank should cut rates more aggressively to support economic growth, even at the cost of temporarily higher inflation. Others, conversely, favor a more cautious approach, warning that cutting rates too quickly could undermine efforts to stabilize prices. "Even with some additional easing, monetary policy will remain moderately restrictive, which will help ensure that inflation resumes its decline once tariff effects work their way through the economy," she said. Investors now expect that the Fed leadership will lower rates at the meeting later this month — a move Fed Chair Jerome Powell also clearly signaled yesterday. This would mark the second rate cut of the year, following the September decision to lower the key rate by a quarter point to the target range of 4.00–4.25%. Collins noted that it is difficult to determine to what extent the recent decline in hiring reflects weaker demand for labor versus a reduced supply caused by a sharp slowdown in immigration. According to her, the monthly job growth needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate could soon fall to just 40,000, compared with roughly 80,000 before the pandemic. The Boston Fed chief also said she expects a relatively modest increase in the unemployment rate this year and in early 2026. Collins was also asked about her outlook on interest rates, to which she replied that policy does not follow a preset path and that she could envision a scenario in which officials keep rates unchanged after another round of easing in October — particularly amid the escalation of a new U.S.-China trade conflict. "A small additional easing of 25 basis points could be appropriate, but I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves," Collins said. The dollar reacted to all these comments with a solid drop against a range of risk assets. As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to think about breaking above 1.1630. Only then can they target a test of 1.1660. From there, they could climb to 1.1690, though doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1715 high. If the trading instrument falls toward 1.1600, I expect some serious action from large buyers. If none appear, it would be wise to wait for an update of the 1.1570 low or open long positions from 1.1545. As for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break the nearest resistance at 1.3360. Only then can they aim for 1.3390, above which it will be difficult to advance. The most distant target will be the 1.3425 level. If the pair declines, the bears will try to regain control around 1.3330. If successful, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3290 low, with the potential to reach 1.3250. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell sharply against most risk assets — and there were objective reasons for that. During his speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. central bank intends to lower interest rates, even though the government shutdown is significantly limiting its ability to forecast the state of the economy. Speaking Tuesday at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Powell said that the economic outlook appeared to have remained unchanged since the policymakers' September meeting, when they cut interest rates and projected two more reductions this year. Powell repeatedly pointed to weak hiring growth and noted that it could deteriorate further. "We're at a stage where a further decline in job openings could well start affecting the unemployment rate," Powell said during a Q&A session following his prepared remarks. "We've gone through an extraordinary period when everything slowed down all at once, and now it's time to take care of the labor market." These comments came amid rising uncertainty about the global economic situation and growing concerns over a slowdown in U.S. economic growth. Investors viewed the Fed's readiness to ease monetary policy as a positive signal that could help sustain economic activity. However, many economists expressed concern about the lack of data due to the government shutdown, which complicates assessing the real state of the economy and making informed decisions. Given the limited data available, the Fed will be forced to rely on indirect indicators and its own expert judgment when deciding on the future path of interest rates. This introduces additional risks related to possible forecasting errors and inadequate responses to the changing economic environment. Nevertheless, Powell's signal indicates that the Fed remains committed to maintaining stability and supporting U.S. economic growth, even under heightened uncertainty. Expectations for a rate cut in October have remained virtually unchanged following Powell's remarks. Investors are pricing in nearly a 100% probability of a reduction, according to federal funds futures contracts. Recall that the Fed's September rate cut to a target range of 4.00–4.25% was the first since December and followed a sharp summer slowdown in hiring. However, the unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for October 28–29. Last month, the median forecast of the 19 Fed members projected two more rate cuts this year. However, nine officials believed one or fewer reductions would be appropriate. As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to think about breaking above 1.1630. Only then can they target a test of 1.1660. From there, they could climb to 1.1690, though doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1715 high. If the trading instrument falls toward 1.1600, I expect some serious action from large buyers. If none appear, it would be wise to wait for an update of the 1.1570 low or open long positions from 1.1545. As for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break the nearest resistance at 1.3360. Only then can they aim for 1.3390, above which it will be difficult to advance. The most distant target will be the 1.3425 level. If the pair declines, the bears will try to regain control around 1.3330. If successful, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3290 low, with the potential to reach 1.3250. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader. #instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets continue to display sharp movements. Gold and silver have reached record highs amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Shares of Wells Fargo surged after the bank raised its return targets and saw regulatory restrictions lifted. Google has committed a record $15 billion to develop an AI hub in India. Apple, in turn, is preparing to launch in the smart home market with a $350 premium hub while moving production to Vietnam. This article explores each of these events in depth and details the opportunities they unlock for traders. Gold sets records amid geopolitical tensions and Fed rate cut expectations Gold prices hit an all-time high on Wednesday, climbing to $4,185 per ounce, driven by escalating US-China trade disputes and expectations of two additional Fed rate cuts later this year. This section of the article explores the drivers behind the sharp rally in precious metals, the impact of global politics and monetary policy on commodity markets, and trading strategies for participants looking to harness current volatility. Declining yields on US Treasuries, which hit multi-week lows after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a potential rate cut, have once again made gold more attractive. Low yields and cheaper borrowing costs traditionally support precious metals, which do not generate interest income. Rising geopolitical risks also lifted gold demand after a statement by Donald Trump signaling a possible halt to vegetable oil trade with China. Investors rotated into safe-haven assets once again, while China promised retaliatory measures following the threat of an additional 100% tariff hike. The silver market showed even more dramatic performance: spot prices surged to a record $53.54 per ounce before sharply retreating as signs emerged of easing historical supply tightness in the London market. The spread between London and New York prices narrowed, and borrowing costs for the metal began to decline, though they remain elevated. Investors continue to track the US Section 232 investigation involving silver, platinum, and palladium, fearing the imposition of new tariffs despite formal exemptions granted in April. The four main precious metals have already gained 58–80% this year, making them top-performing commodity assets. This rally is supported by central bank purchases, growing ETF holdings, and expectations of further Fed policy easing. Contributing to the demand for safe havens are several macro risks: the US-China trade conflict, concerns about the Fed's independence, partial government shutdown in the US, and investors' need to hedge capital against currency devaluation due to widening fiscal deficits, commonly referred to as the "debasement trade." For traders, the current environment offers both short-term and medium-term opportunities. Pullbacks can serve as entry points to gradually build positions in gold and silver with limited risk, while medium-term strategies can focus on price growth driven by geopolitical catalysts and Fed policy expectations. Wells Fargo shares rallies on improved outlook and lifted regulatory restrictions Yesterday, shares of Wells Fargo & Co. posted an impressive gain, closing up 7.1%, the biggest daily increase since November 6 of last year, when markets rallied following Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. The stock's rally was driven not only by strong quarterly results, but also by the first major revision in the bank's medium-term profitability target in years, following the removal of its asset cap restriction. In this article, we break down the drivers of the rally, the bank's updated guidance, and the trading opportunities this unlocks. Wells Fargo was the top performer in the KBW Bank Index for the day, and over the past month it trails only Comerica Inc., whose stock was boosted by the announcement of 2025's largest bank merger, Fifth Third Bancorp's acquisition of Comerica. According to analyst Scott Siefers, beyond strong earnings, the key takeaway from Wells Fargo is that the bank is now executing with purpose and urgency. The primary catalyst for the rally was the upward revision of the bank's target return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) from 15% to a range of 17–18%. This metric reflects the bank's efficiency in generating profits available to common shareholders and is a key tool for assessing growth dynamics along with related costs. As of the end of September, the total assets of America's fourth-largest bank exceeded $2 trillion for the first time, following the Federal Reserve's decision in June to lift a cap on asset growth that had been in place since late 2017. Since the restriction was introduced, Wells Fargo's stock had significantly lagged behind peers, but the bank now has meaningful room for growth and reinvestment. In addition, CFO Mike Santomassimo told Bloomberg in an interview that Wells Fargo plans to repurchase roughly the same amount of shares in the final quarter of the year as it did in the third quarter, when the bank bought back $6.1 billion in common stock. This move further supports the stock price, signaling management's confidence in the company's outlook. Overall, analysts see the current momentum in Wells Fargo shares as a sign of sustained recovery after a prolonged period of regulatory constraints. The increase in ROTCE, asset growth, and active share buyback program form a strong foundation for continued appreciation in the stock's value. For traders, this may present both short-term and medium-term speculative opportunities: buying on pullbacks, trading around earnings momentum, and strategically using long positions based on the upgraded ROTCE outlook. To take advantage of these opportunities, register with InstaForex and download our app—receive instant market alerts, track real-time quotes, and react to every development, turning news into actionable trading decisions. Google invests $15 billion in India's largest AI hub Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, has announced a major project in India. Over the next five years, the company plans to invest around $15 billion in constructing an AI infrastructure hub in the port city of Visakhapatnam, marking Google's largest investment in the rapidly growing country. This article outlines the key details of the project, partnership agreements, market development forecasts, regional economic impact, and trading recommendations for those looking to capitalize on the new opportunities. The project involves the creation of a data center integrated with new energy sources and a fiber-optic network, in partnership with Indian magnate Gautam Adani through his firm AdaniConneX, as well as Bharti Airtel, the country's second-largest telecom operator. According to the government of Andhra Pradesh, the region is expected to reach 6 gigawatts of data center capacity by 2029, making Google's initiative a strategic component of the state's program to accelerate the development of the artificial intelligence industry. The scale of investment is striking: the Visakhapatnam data center alone is valued at over $10 billion. "This is not just about jobs, it's about the broader economic impact the project will generate," Nara Lokesh, the region's technology minister and son of state leader Nara Chandrababu Naidu, noted. Lokesh emphasized that the initiative is part of a broader "dual strategy," where industrial regional development and federal support go hand in hand. Google joins other American tech giants investing in India. Amazon plans to inject $12.7 billion into cloud infrastructure by 2030, while OpenAI is preparing to build a 1-gigawatt data center. CBRE experts forecast that investments in India's data center market will exceed $100 billion by 2027, positioning the region as one of the key beneficiaries of the global AI boom. However, these ambitious plans face significant challenges: limited water resources and unreliable electricity supply remain major obstacles to large-scale implementation. Nonetheless, the state government is providing land and energy incentives, while Naidu's proven track record in transforming Hyderabad into a tech hub fuels confidence in the success of the initiative. Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian emphasized that the hub is being built not only for the company's internal needs but also to support entrepreneurs, enterprises, and commercial organizations across India. For traders, the news of such a large-scale investment unlocks notable opportunities. Projects of this magnitude typically trigger volatility in the technology and infrastructure asset classes, allowing for strategic plays on both short-term price swings and medium-term trends. In the case of Google (Alphabet Inc.) stock, this implies monitoring price dynamics related to construction progress and key partnership announcements, locking in gains on short-term spikes following major news, and using pullbacks as entry points to scale into longer-term positions. Apple enters smart home market with $350 hub, shifts production to Vietnam Apple has announced the launch of its long-awaited smart home hub, scheduled for March 2026, which will become the company's new flagship product in the smart home segment. The $350 device, featuring a 7-inch display and both tabletop and wall-mounted configurations, is designed to compete with the Amazon Echo Show and other segment leaders. In this article, we analyze the device's key features, Apple's strategic manufacturing shift, market forecasts, the new product's financial implications, and practical recommendations for traders. Internally codenamed J490 for the tabletop version and J491 for the wall-mounted model, the hub resembles a HomePod mini with a screen, equipped with a FaceTime camera and software that recognizes family members to personalize features. The initial launch was planned for March 2025 but was postponed to accommodate an updated version of Siri based on next-generation architecture. The $350 price point is significantly higher than competitors and even the full-sized HomePod, reflecting Apple's premium positioning, delivering innovation at a price that often leaves competitors puzzled. Strategically, the shift lies in the fact that production of the device will be carried out in Vietnam by China's BYD, rather than the company's traditional Chinese manufacturing base. BYD will handle final assembly, testing, and packaging of the devices, aligning with Apple's broader efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing amid ongoing trade tensions. As of 2023, Apple suppliers operated 35 manufacturing facilities in Vietnam, with total investment in the country since 2019 reaching approximately $16 billion. Products already made there include AirPods, iPads, Apple Watch, and some Mac models. Nonetheless, exports from Vietnam are still subject to 20% tariffs in the US, which adds to costs and keeps market sentiment cautious. Apple's ambitions extend beyond the home hub. By the end of 2026, it plans to release an indoor security camera codenamed J450, and by 2027, a tabletop robot with a 9-inch display and motorized manipulator, which is expected to cost "several hundred dollars." With these additions, Apple is gradually building a smart home ecosystem that could potentially shift the balance of power against Amazon and Google. For traders, the news of the home hub and the production shift opens real opportunities. A direct impact could be a rise in Apple shares on news tied to the device's launch and expansion of manufacturing capabilities in Vietnam. Short-term volatility is expected around each major announcement, from the official rollout to the first demand reports. Using pullbacks as entry points allows for position-building with limited risk. Medium-term investors may view Apple stock as a proxy for participating in the smart home segment's expansion and the company's reinforced manufacturing footprint in Southeast Asia. To seize this opportunity, open an account with InstaForex and download our mobile app. Trade Apple shares and other instruments right from your smartphone, track the market in real time, and respond instantly to every important news trigger! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Extends Recovery Most Read: USD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie? Japanese stocks bounced back strongly on Wednesday, with the benchmark Nikkei index recovering from its biggest one-day loss since April, as investors bought back into the technology sector. The Nikkei 225 Index surged 1.8% to close at 47,672.67, making up for a significant part of its 2.6% drop from the previous session. The broader Topix index also climbed 1.6%. Leading the recovery were major tech stocks that had been hit hard by worries over the China-U.S. trade dispute. SoftBank Group, a key investor in chips and AI, rose 5.1%, while chip equipment maker Advantest gained 2.2%. In related news, the European Union is reportedly considering a bold plan to require Chinese companies to share their technology with European firms in exchange for local market access. Domestically, there is ongoing political uncertainty in Japan, with leaders of the main opposition parties meeting on Wednesday to discuss uniting behind a single candidate for the position of Prime Minister. Chinese CPI Underwhelms China's consumer prices continued to fall in September 2025, recording a year-over-year drop of 0.3%, which was slightly less severe than the previous month but worse than what analysts had expected. The main reason for the overall price decline was a steep drop in food prices, which fell at their fastest rate since January 2024. This was largely driven by an oversupply of pork, lower production costs, and weak consumer demand ahead of the Golden Week holidays. In contrast to food, prices for goods and services excluding food and energy (known as core inflation) actually rose by 1.0% year-over-year. This was the highest core inflation reading in 19 months, suggesting that underlying consumer demand is slowly starting to pick up, possibly due to government incentives encouraging people to trade in old consumer goods. Categories like healthcare and clothing saw price increases, and the cost of transportation fell at a slower pace than before. On a month-to-month basis, prices barely moved, increasing just 0.1%. Even though the current economic data suggests the central bank of China (People's Bank of China) should lower interest rates or take other steps to boost the economy (monetary easing), it might decide to wait. The bank could be saving those options in case the planned meeting between President Xi and President Trump does not go well, allowing them to use the easing measures as an emergency economic boost afterward. European Session - Luxury Sector Boosts European Stocks European stock markets climbed on Wednesday, largely driven by a massive rally in luxury brands after French giant LVMH delivered surprisingly positive sales results, calming fears about the health of major companies amidst global trade and growth concerns. Luxury group LVMH saw its shares soar over 12%, heading for their best daily performance in almost two years after reporting better-than-expected sales in the third quarter, fueled by stronger demand in China. This good news immediately boosted other luxury stocks, with companies like Hermes and Richemont seeing gains between 2.7% and 7.2%. This surge caused the French stock index to jump 2.5%, while the broader STOXX 600 index for all of Europe rose 0.8%. Adding to the positive mood, chip-equipment supplier ASML rose 3.5% after its forecasts for quarterly orders and sales beat market expectations. However, not all stocks did well: German copper producer Aurubis fell 7.1% because its majority owner, Salzgitter, launched a large bond that can be exchanged for Aurubis shares, which often puts downward pressure on a stock's price. On the FX front, The US dollar remained mostly unchanged early on Wednesday, stabilizing after a slight drop in the previous session. The dollar was steady against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, holding its value after losing ground to both currencies on Tuesday. The euro also held firm at 1.1606 following its own small gain yesterday. Among commodity-linked currencies, the Australian dollar ticked up slightly by 0.1%, attempting to recover after hitting its lowest point since late August on Tuesday. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar continued its slight decline, easing another 0.1% after falling to a six-month low yesterday. Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped slightly on Wednesday, continuing a downward trend, as worries about too much supply in the global market overshadowed demand concerns tied to the US-China trade conflict. The main pressure came from a warning issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA stated that the global oil market could see a large supply surplus—as much as 4 million bpd next year. This is a bigger excess than previously expected, caused by oil-producing nations (OPEC+ and rivals) increasing their output while global demand remains slow. Both major oil benchmarks, Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), saw small dips, with Brent trading at $62.30 per barrel. Both contracts had already hit five-month lows in the previous trading session. Gold prices surged again on Wednesday, climbing to a new all-time high just above the $4,200 per ounce mark. Renewed concerns about the trade conflict between the U.S. and China has given haven demand a fresh boost. For more on the movement of Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the Day Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet before market participants' attention turns to US Earnings data and a host of Central Bank speakers who will take the spotlight. Lastly, attention will be on the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book," a key report that gathers informal information on the US economy across its regions, because it strongly influences the Fed's decisions on interest rates. The Beige Book may carry more weight at the moment given the US government shutdown and lack of data available, especially labor data. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 did rise toward the resistance level around 9500. However, the index failed to break higher and is experiencing a pullback this morning. The bullish structure will remain intact as long as the FTSE 100 is able to hold above the swing low at 9412 and the 100-day MA resting at 9406. A hold above this key confluence zone could be the start of the next leg higher. A break of this zone though open up the Index to further downside. Immediate resistance rests around the 9500 handle before the swing high at 9590 comes into focus. On the downside, support rests at 9406 before the 9357 and 9311 handles become areas of interest. FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, October 15. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin has faced another retrace in the past day that has brought its price to the short-term holder cost basis, a level that has acted as support thus far. Bitcoin Is Making Yet Another Retest Of The STH Realized Price As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, Bitcoin could be at the fourth step of the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price cycle. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that measures the average cost basis of the investors on the BTC network. When the value of this metric is greater than the spot price, it means the overall market is carrying a net unrealized loss. On the other hand, it being below BTC’s value suggests the average holder is in the green. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a specific segment of investors is of interest: the STHs. These are the BTC holders who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This group is considered to include the fickle-minded bunch of the sector, prone to making panic moves during volatile periods. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price of the STHs over the last couple of months: As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin has made a few retests of the STH Realized Price during the last few weeks and each time, the level has held so far. The reason behind the indicator acting as support lies in how investor psychology tends to work. As the analyst has broken down in the chart, STHs typically follow a five-step cycle during bullish phases. The first three steps involve some degree of buying from the group upon retests of their cost basis from above. These holders consider the retraces to their break-even level as dip-buying opportunities. By the fourth retest, however, they can become exhausted, and may decide to stop their accumulation. This is when the level stops providing support to the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s visible that the latest retrace in Bitcoin has once again brought its value near the STH Realized Price. Given that this is the fourth retest, Maartunn has noted that this could potentially be the fourth step in the STH cycle. It will now be interesting to see how the asset’s price develops in the coming days. A sustained move below the level may confirm a breakdown of support and lead to the fifth and final step of the STH cycle, where these investors start looking at their break-even level as an opportunity to exit the market instead, thus turning what was once support into resistance. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped to $110,000 earlier in the day, but the coin has since bounced back to $113,000.

Layer-1 (L1) blockchain Monad has recently opened a portal for users to claim the airdrop for its native MON token, with the claiming period set to end on November 3. However, the announcement has sparked significant criticism within the crypto community. Many users, particularly those on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), have voiced concerns that the criteria for eligibility have not aligned with the developments, leaving several traders, including those from Hyperliquid (HYPE), ineligible for the airdrop. Hyperliquid And HypurrNFT Users Left In The Lurch At the time of the announcement, it was stated that users of Hyperliquid, Phantom perps, and holders of HypurrNFT would be eligible to receive the MON airdrop. Despite this, reports indicate that very few HypurrNFT holders qualify, with some users claiming that their substantial trading volumes—over 200 million on perps—did not meet the eligibility requirements. These frustrations have led to comments such as, “this airdrop is a joke,” highlighting the disconnect between the expectations set by Monad and the reality faced by its community. According to the outlined criteria, Monad plans to distribute tokens to over 235,500 users, including active community members who have consistently supported the project on social media and engaged in various initiatives. The criteria also encompass traders with high trading volumes on decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid, long-term holders of popular NFTs (such as CryptoPunks and Pudgy Penguins), participants in DAO voting on Ethereum-based platforms, contributors to ecosystem development through various roles, and developers actively creating products on Monad and participating in project hackathons. Critics Question Monad’s Commitment To Users Critics, including DeFi researcher Coin Metrika, have sharply criticized Monad’s airdrop strategy. Metrika pointed out that the published eligibility criteria shocked many within the crypto community, revealing that only 5,500 wallets are considered eligible—representing just 0.74% of Monad’s Discord users. Meanwhile, the project is distributing airdrops to 225,000 addresses outside of its community, many of whom may not even be aware of Monad or the impending claim deadline. In a sarcastic commentary, Coin Metrika summarized the situation, stating: If you haven’t figured it out yet, here’s a summary of #MonadAirdrop criteria: You have roles in Discord that are difficult to obtain—thank you, we’re not interested in you because you’re poor! You participated in our testnet—thank you for helping us test the product for free, which we sold to investors for a lot of money. Dressed up in clown costumes and shot viral videos to promote the @monad brand—thank you, we laughed out loud at you. You have money that you’ve shown on the blockchain—let’s be friends, here’s your airdrop! This highlights the increasing dissatisfaction within the Hyperliquid, HypurrNFT and wider crypto communities regarding how Monad has handled its airdrop initiative, raising questions about its commitment to its users. At the time of writing, HYPE trades at $39, recording losses of 13% over the past seven days. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Yesterday, US stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 declined by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.76%. The industrial Dow Jones rose by 0.44%. Equity indices advanced and the dollar weakened as optimism around a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve revived risk appetite and outweighed renewed US-China trade tensions. Markets recovered much of the previous week's losses as traders focused on the prospect of a more dovish monetary policy signaled by the Fed, while largely ignoring continued reports of difficulties in US-China trade negotiations. A growing conviction of an inevitable Fed rate cut exerted pressure on US Treasury yields, making the dollar less attractive to investors. This, in turn, supported asset prices denominated in other currencies and triggered a rally in equity markets. However, lingering uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations continues to have a dampening effect on investor sentiment. Further escalation of the trade war could offset the positive impact of a Fed rate cut and once again redirect capital into safe-haven assets such as gold and Treasuries. Asian stocks jumped 1.9%, marking the largest intraday gain in over two months, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's concerns about labor market weakness bolstered expectations of a rate cut in October. The yield on two-year US Treasury notes remained near its lowest levels since 2022. Gold reached a new peak. Powell signaled that the US central bank intends to cut interest rates by another quarter point at the end of this month, despite the government shutdown significantly reducing the Fed's capacity to forecast economic trends. Swap contracts are pricing in a total rate cut of approximately 1.25 percentage points by the end of next year, compared to the current range of 4-4.25%. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jameson Greer stated that escalating tensions with China over export controls are expected to ease following negotiations between officials from both nations. Trump also expressed cautious optimism about the possibility of a positive outcome. "We have a fair relationship with China, and I think it'll be fine. And if it's not, that's okay too," Trump told reporters Tuesday at the White House. "We're taking a lot of hits, but we've made great progress." As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the key objective for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,672. This would support further price appreciation and open the path toward a push to the next level at $6,682. No less important for bulls will be maintaining control above the $6,697 mark, which would strengthen buyer positioning. In the event of a downside move amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,660. A break below this level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,648 and open the way to $6,638. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[XPD/USD] – [Wednesday, October 15, 2025] With the condition of technical indicators which showing a bullish momentum for XPD/USD, such as both EMAs forming a Golden Cross and the RSI positioned in the Neutral-Bullish zone. This suggests that XPD/USD has the potential to strengthen today. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 1649.30 2. Resistance. 1 : 1605.71 3. Pivot : 1539.32 4. Support. 1 : 1495.73 5. Support. 2 : 1429.34 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If Palladium strengthens above 1539.32, it may continue its rally toward 1605.71. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1605.71 is successfully broken, there is potential for XPD/USD to test the 1649.30 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if XPD/USD falls and closes below 1429.34. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 1545.45 EMA(200): 1486.42 RSI(14) : 57.55 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the only economic release from the United States is the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Platinum] – [Wednesday, October 15, 2025] Even though the intersection of the Golden Cross of the two EMA(50) & (200) is relatively narrow, but with the RSI in the Neutral-Bullish zone suggests that buyers are still dominant in Platinum. Key Levels: Level-Level Kunci 1. Resistance. 2 : 1743.0 2. Resistance. 1 : 1704.0 3. Pivot : 1672.5 4. Support. 1 : 1633.5 5. Support. 2 : 1602.0 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If Platinum breaks and closes above 1704.0, it may move to test 1743.0. Momentum Extension Bias: If Platinum successfully breaks and closes above 1743.0, there is potential for it to reach 1774.5. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if Platinum falls and closes below 1602.0. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 1674.9 EMA(200): 1670.1 RSI(14) : 55.03 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the only economic release from the United States is the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The storm in the U.S. equity market shows no signs of calming. The S&P 500 opened with a gap for the second consecutive trading session—this time to the downside—following news of an escalation in the trade conflict. Beijing effectively barred Chinese companies from doing business with the U.S. subsidiary of South Korean shipbuilding giant Hanwha Ocean. Yet upbeat corporate earnings and dovish comments from Jerome Powell helped the broad market index ride the volatility rollercoaster and rebound. Financial results from major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, exceeded expectations, while BlackRock announced that assets under management surpassed $13 trillion for the first time in history. According to FactSet, third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise by 8%. The actual figures could come closer to 13%. Historically, earnings have beaten estimates in three out of every four quarters, which has been a strong support for the U.S. stock market. On the other hand, the S&P 500 bull market has now stretched into its fourth year, and the index hasn't experienced at least a 5% pullback in 97 trading sessions. The long-term average for such streaks is just 59 days. This raises the question: Is it time for a correction? Chart: S&P 500 Streaks Without 5% Drawdowns A return of trade war tensions could be the trigger. Beijing is playing hardball—it seems to have found Donald Trump's Achilles' heel: his unwillingness to see stock indices decline. The president views them as a personal success metric. After the market closed, he announced 100% tariffs, only to reassure the public on social media shortly afterward with posts like "Everything will be fine with China" and "The United States doesn't want to hurt China; we want to help!" Markets react quickly to messages from the White House and continue to buy S&P 500 dips under the TACO strategy. But China may well believe that Trump will eventually yield. If not, the standoff could escalate into a full-blown trade war, triggering a meaningful correction in the S&P 500 and weighing down both the U.S. and global economies. The Fed would then be left with no choice but to cut rates aggressively. Jerome Powell gave no concrete indication that another round of monetary easing would occur in October. However, he did note that a continued slowdown in job growth would eventually lead to higher unemployment. Despite another round of blows traded between Beijing and Washington, the S&P 500 managed to edge upward, though it retreated slightly as the trade tension news settled. China halted soybean purchases from the U.S., and in return, the U.S. will stop buying vegetable oil from Chinese exporters. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 on the daily chart has twice tested an inside bar pattern. Bulls have yet to close a session above fair value at the 6655 level. A breakout above the large-bar high at 6680 would be a buying signal. On the other hand, a failure to reclaim the 6655 resistance would increase the likelihood of a correction and raise the case for entering short positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) tries to recover from its weekend sell-off that saw it almost crash to $100,000, some crypto analysts think that the BTC market likely “lost its pulse.” As a result, the leading cryptocurrency may be on the cusp of losing its bullish momentum. Bitcoin At The Risk Of Losing Momentum? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor TeddyVision, Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has been trending lower, confirming that inter-exchange activity is slowly fading. For the uninitiated, the IFP measures liquidity as it moves between crypto exchanges. In essence, it can be considered a proxy to determine how active arbitrage and market-making really are. To explain, arbitrage refers to the practice of buying an asset for a lower price on one platform and selling it at a higher price on another, thus benefiting from the price differential. In simple terms, arbitrage refers to profiting from inefficiencies. When such inefficiencies exist in the market and are actually executable, liquidity tends to start moving fast. At the same time, trading bots begin shuttling funds across platforms, market spreads begin to realign again, and the market starts to feel “alive.” This is when the IFP rises. Although there is greater market volatility due to a rising IFP, it is generally considered healthy for the market as it confirms that BTC is likely experiencing a bullish momentum. However, since the IFP reading has turned lower in recent weeks, traders are finding it harder to arbitrage price discrepancies even though they might still be appearing. TeddyVision noted: Price discrepancies still appear, but they’re harder to arbitrage – liquidity is thinner, latency is higher, and risk-adjusted opportunities are drying up. Traders find fewer setups worth taking, and less capital circulates between venues. The analyst emphasized that liquidity is not leaving the market, it is just not circulating like earlier. While such a slowdown in liquidity does not crash the market, it does drain the energy out of it. To conclude, the market is not collapsing, it is just “too efficient” at the moment for traders to find any meaningful arbitrage opportunities that they can benefit from. When inefficiencies leave the market, the underlying asset is likely at risk of losing its momentum. A Healthy Correction For BTC? The market crash on October 9 led to the largest single-day liquidation ever in the history of the crypto industry, totalling a mammoth $19 billion. While the overall optimism has receded, some analysts are still hopeful of a quick sentiment turnaround. Fellow crypto analyst EtherNasyonaL stated that BTC has maintained its upward trajectory despite the recent market crash, and that a move to a new all-time high (ATH) may be on the horizon. At press time, BTC trades at $111,731, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours.

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese YenThe 151.89 level test occurred when the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the U.S. dollar, which resulted in a 25-pip drop in the pair. The Japanese yen resumed its upward movement against the dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced plans for a 25-basis-point rate cut. His statement acted as a catalyst for currency markets, triggering a reassessment of risk and outlooks for both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Investors shifted their focus back to the yen—a traditional safe-haven currency. Despite the release of weak industrial production data in Japan, the yen continued to strengthen against the dollar. In the medium term, the future direction of the pair will depend on multiple factors, including policy decisions from both the Fed and the Bank of Japan, geopolitical developments, and global economic conditions. However, the course toward yen strength is likely to hold for now. As for today's intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair reaches the 151.30 entry level (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 151.80 (thicker green line). Around 151.80, I plan to exit long positions and enter short positions on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from that level. It is best to return to long trades on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair tests the 150.97 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the downside potential and could lead to an upward reversal, with expected growth toward 151.30 and 151.80. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 150.97 (thin red line on the chart), which may lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be the 150.43 level (thicker red line), where I plan to exit short positions and consider direct long entries on a bounce, targeting a 20–25 pip reversal. It is optimal to sell from as high a level as possible. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 151.30 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would cap the pair's upside potential and could lead to a downward reversal, with anticipated movement toward 150.97 and 150.43. Chart NotesThin green line: Entry level for buy positionsThick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long positionThin red line: Entry level for sell positionsThick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short positionMACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timingImportant for Beginners Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place. And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3284 level coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's bullish potential. The second test of this level occurred while MACD was in the overbought zone, triggering the implementation of Sell Scenario No. 2. However, the anticipated decline in the pair did not materialize. The pound surged sharply on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the U.S. central bank plans to lower the key interest rate by 0.25% at the end of the month. The market reacted instantly with widespread buying of the British currency, as investors interpreted Powell's comments as a signal of U.S. economic weakness and, consequently, decreased attractiveness of the dollar. His announcement came as a surprise to many analysts who had expected a more cautious Fed stance, especially given the absence of new U.S. labor market data. Powell justified the need to cut rates based on continued risks tied to economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and fears of a rising unemployment rate. No economic data is scheduled for release from the UK today. However, speeches are expected from Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England responsible for markets and banking, and Sarah Breeden, a member of the Financial Policy Committee. Sir David's speech is of particular interest. He is expected to provide an updated assessment of the health of the UK banking system and detail the BoE's efforts to support financial stability. Sarah Breeden, representing the Financial Policy Committee, will likely focus on broader macroeconomic threats. Her comments on the state of the economy and inflation outlook will be closely studied, as the committee plays a key role in formulating the UK's macroprudential policy. As for today's intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point at 1.3367 (thin green line on the chart) is reached, with a target at 1.3416 (thick green line). Around 1.3416, I will close long positions and consider opening short positions on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips. This buying strategy should only be applied if the BoE assumes a hawkish tone. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3342 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside and may lead to a reversal upward. A price move toward 1.3367 and 1.3416 should be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today if the market breaks below 1.3342 (thin red line on the chart), triggering a quick drop. The primary target would be 1.3304 (thick red line). I plan to exit short positions there and consider immediate long entries on a bounce from the level, with an expected pullback of 20–25 pips. Pound sellers are likely to trade cautiously. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3367 level while MACD is in the overbought zone. This would signal limited upside potential and may lead to a downward reversal toward 1.3342 and 1.3304. Chart NotesThin green line: Entry level for buy positionsThick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long positionThin red line: Entry level for sell positionsThick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short positionMACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timingImportant for Beginners Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place. And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Trading Advice for the EuroThe test of the 1.1565 price level occurred when the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair climbed toward the target level at 1.1599. Following comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating a planned 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the month, the U.S. dollar experienced a sharp decline. The announcement triggered a broad sell-off in the greenback across global markets, as investors reassessed their expectations for future Fed policy. Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy remains stable but noted that risks related to the labor market call for vigilance and may warrant further easing. This morning, market participants await the French Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Eurozone industrial production data for August. The French CPI, a key measure of inflation, will show how effectively the country is managing price growth. Readings above forecasts may signal stronger inflationary pressure, reinforcing the ECB's cautious policy stance. The Eurozone's industrial production data will also be important, as it reflects the health of the manufacturing sector—a key component of economic growth. A decline may suggest growth is slowing and could put pressure on the euro. For today's intraday strategy, I will focus on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches 1.1630 (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1663. Upon reaching 1.1663 (thick green line), I will exit the market and consider selling the euro on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from the entry point. A long position is justified only if the incoming data is positive. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1615 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and could lead to an upward reversal toward the 1.1630 and 1.1663 targets. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the euro if the price reaches 1.1615 (thin red line on the chart), aiming for a decline toward 1.1588. At that level (thick red line), I will exit the short position and potentially buy on a bounce, expecting a 20–25 pip rebound. Market pressure on the pair is unlikely to persist today. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1630 level (buy entry level) and the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and could result in a reversal down to 1.1615 and possibly 1.1588. Chart NotesThin green line: Entry level for buy positionsThick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long positionThin red line: Entry level for sell positionsThick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short positionMACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timingImportant for Beginners Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place. And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. dollar collapsed against the euro, pound, and other assets following yesterday's interview with Jerome Powell. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, indicated that the U.S. central bank intends to lower the key interest rate by another 25 basis points, likely as early as the end of October. This statement served as a trigger for widespread dollar selling across global markets, as investors adjusted their expectations for future monetary policy easing. Powell noted that the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, but risks related to slowing employment growth and ongoing trade tensions require caution and may justify further policy accommodation. According to him, a 25-basis-point rate cut is intended to support economic growth. In the first half of the day, market participants will be watching the release of the French Consumer Price Index and Eurozone industrial production data for August. The European Central Bank will carefully analyze these reports to gauge inflation pressure and the trajectory of regional economic growth. France's Consumer Price Index, a key inflation metric, will show how effectively the country is managing rising prices. Higher-than-expected figures could signal accelerating inflation, although many economists are forecasting a decline in price pressure. Industrial production data for the Eurozone is also important. It reflects the health of the manufacturing sector, which is a key driver of economic growth. A decline in production could suggest an economic slowdown, potentially prompting the ECB to consider renewed stimulus measures. As for the pound, no UK economic reports are scheduled for today. However, speeches are expected from Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking at the Bank of England, and Sarah Breeden, member of the Financial Policy Committee. Ramsden's remarks will be particularly important in the context of current market volatility and ongoing inflation-related concerns. He is expected to give an update on the UK banking sector, credit risks, and the BoE's actions to maintain financial stability. Sarah Breeden will likely focus on broader macroeconomic risks. If incoming data aligns with economists' forecasts, it is best to apply a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, a Momentum strategy is more appropriate. Momentum Strategy (Breakout-Based):EUR/USDBuy on a breakout above 1.1627 with targets at 1.1661 and 1.1691Sell on a breakout below 1.1600 with targets at 1.1575 and 1.1545GBP/USDBuy on a breakout above 1.3360 with targets at 1.3390 and 1.3424Sell on a breakout below 1.3325 with targets at 1.3290 and 1.3265USD/JPYBuy on a breakout above 151.35 with targets at 151.75 and 152.10Sell on a breakout below 151.00 with targets at 150.65 and 150.35Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal-Based): EUR/USDLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1643, on a return below this levelLook for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1605, on a return to this level GBP/USDLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3371, on a return below this levelLook for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3319, on a return to this level AUD/USDLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6535, on a return below this levelLook for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6495, on a return to this level USD/CADLook for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.4050, on a return below this levelLook for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.4024, on a return to this levelThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Key takeaways The Hang Seng Index remains in a medium-term uptrend, despite a recent 9% pullback triggered by renewed US-China trade tensions.China’s core CPI rose to a 19-month high of 1% in September 2025, easing deflation fears and boosting market confidence.Technical indicators show bullish momentum, with key short-term support at 25,140 and upside resistance near 27,500.A sustained yuan appreciation continues to underpin Hong Kong’s equity market recovery. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Bullish consolidation above 26,200 on China housing recovery”, published on 15 September 2025. The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have staged the expected bullish movement and rallied by 4.25% from 15 September 2025, surpassing the 26,940 resistance highlighted in our previous report, and hit an intraday high of 27,401 on 2 October 2025 (just whisker away from a major resistance of 27,500). Thereafter, the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index tumbled by 9% (high to low) from 2 October 2025 to print an intraday low of 24,918 on Friday, 10 October 2025, due to renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Let’s now examine the key macro factors that are likely to support the continuation of the medium-term bullish trends in the China and Hong Kong stock markets since April 2025 (ex-post US “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement). China's core CPI continues to recover, reducing the risk of a deflationary spiral Fig. 1: China CPI, Core CPI & PPI as of Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) China’s headline CPI prices dropped by 0.3% y/y in September 2025, steeper than the consensus estimates of a 0.1% decline but slightly less than a 0.4% drop in August 2025. However, China’s core CPI inflation rate (stripping out food and energy) has continued to increase; it rose by 1% year-over-year (y/y) in September 2025, from 0.9% in August 2025, marking the highest reading in 19 months (see Fig. 1). Additionally, the deceleration in China’s producer prices (PPI) has begun to slow, as they fell 2.3% year-over-year (y/y) in September 2025, easing from a 2.9% drop in August 2025, in line with consensus estimates, marking the mildest contraction since February 2025. These latest inflationary data prints have reduced the risk of a deflationary spiral in the Chinese economy; in turn, this may see an uptick in consumer confidence in Q4 2025, which can trigger a positive feedback loop back into the China and Hong Kong stock markets. Now, let's turn our attention to decipher the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory, key levels, and elements to watch on the Hang Kong 33 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective. Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 15 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index medium-term & major trends as of 15 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bullish reversal at gap support Tuesday, 14 October 2025’s minor corrective decline of 2.9% (high to low) has stalled and reversed right at the gap support formed at the start of Monday’s 13 October 2025 Asia session. Bullish bias above 25,140 key short-term pivotal support and a clearance above the 25,860/26,060 (upside trigger level) sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 26,935 before a test on the 27,500 major resistance (see Fig. 2). Key elements The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has staged a bullish momentum breakout condition on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, US session (see Fig. 2).The major uptrend phase of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has been in place since 22 January 2024 low remaining intact, supported by a steady appreciation of the offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar (see Fig. 3)The major resistance of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index stands at 27,860, defined by the major descending trendline from the 29 January 2018 all-time high, and the upper boundary of a major ascending channel from the 22 January 2024 low.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 25,140 key short-term support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index for the continuation of the corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 24,820 and 24,260. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After beginning the week above the critical $115,000 mark, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market initially showed signs of recovery. However, BTC has resumed its downward trajectory, experiencing a 4% decline over the past 24 hours. This downturn has had a cascading effect on other altcoins, particularly Ethereum (ETH) and XRP. BTC, ETH, XRP’s Plunge Explained With the Bitcoin drop, Ethereum recorded a 5% drop, once again losing the pivotal $4,000 support level, while XRP has suffered even greater losses, plummeting by 7% during the same timeframe. This decline has pushed XRP closer to $2.40 as of Tuesday, highlighting the volatility affecting altcoins in the current market environment. According to Bloomberg, this recent Bitcoin and crypto slide can be attributed to geopolitical tensions, specifically China’s imposition of restrictions on the American units of Hanwha Ocean Co., one of South Korea’s largest shipbuilders. This action is seen as a retaliatory measure against US sanctions targeting the Chinese shipping sector. Bitcoin and the crypto market were already reeling from a brutal selloff that began on October 10, which resulted in approximately $19 billion worth of leveraged positions being liquidated. This selloff, which saw the Bitcoin price drop toward $102,000 last Friday, was triggered by US President Donald Trump’s threats of increased tariffs on China in response to new export controls. Three Scenarios For Bitcoin Market analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s performance, noting that a drop below the $110,000 threshold could initiate a test of the $104,000 to $108,000 liquidity band, according to Timothy Misir, head of research at digital-assets analytics platform BRN. “The market now enters a consolidation phase, characterized by renewed caution, selective risk-taking, and a more measured rebuilding of confidence across both spot and derivatives markets,” commented analytics firm Glassnode. Furthermore, market expert Doctor Profit has outlined three potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory over the short, mid, and long term on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). In the short term, covering the current month, the Bitcoin outlook is neutral. Although a slightly bullish sentiment was noted yesterday, it has reverted to neutral as new data emerges, emphasizing the need for more information to make a conclusive decision. For the mid-term outlook, spanning one to three months, the sentiment is bearish. The expert indicates that the market has recently entered the early stages of a bear phase. While there may be instances of dead cat bounces, he suggests that the overall direction for the mid-term appears to be downward. Looking further ahead, in the long term (three to twelve months), the analysis remains extremely bearish for Bitcoin and crypto as the macroeconomic environment indicates an impending global economic upheaval, which many believe is closer than it appears. When writing, Bitcoin trades just above its key support for the short-term at $110,300. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. The only notable report is industrial production in the Eurozone, which is once again unlikely to impress traders with a strong result. However, expectations for this indicator are already quite low, so exceeding them may be relatively easy. No other significant reports are expected throughout the day. Fundamental Event Overview: Several fundamental events are scheduled for Wednesday, but several important points should be noted straight away. Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde have both spoken frequently in recent weeks. As a result, the market now has a clear understanding of what to expect from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in the near term. The U.S. government shutdown continues, meaning key macroeconomic indicators are not being published. Without new data, Fed officials have little basis to alter their communication or policy stance. The ECB has likely concluded its monetary policy easing cycle, as it has successfully brought inflation down to its target level. The Bank of England is also likely to enter a prolonged pause in its easing cycle, as inflation in the UK currently exceeds the target by nearly twofold. Therefore, no significant policy shifts or major announcements are expected from central bank officials at this time. General Conclusions: On the third trading day of the week, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD may continue to move erratically and illogically. So far, we have observed declines in both pairs that are difficult to explain from a fundamental perspective. Today, the euro may resume growth and target the 1.1655–1.1666 area, as it has now consolidated above the 1.1571–1.1584 zone. The British pound may also continue its recovery after consolidating above the trendline and the 1.3329–1.3331 resistance area, aiming for the 1.3413–1.3421 target zone. Core Trading System Rules: Signal strength is based on how quickly a clear signal forms—a bounce or breakout. The faster the formation, the stronger the signal.If a level has produced two or more false signals recently, ignore future signals from that level.In a sideways (flat) market, many false signals may occur—or none at all. It's best to stop trading if a flat pattern becomes evident.Trades should be opened between the start of the European trading session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually afterward.Trades on the hourly timeframe using MACD signals should only be made when there's good volatility and trend confirmation via trendlines or channels.If two levels are within 5 to 20 pips of one another, they should be treated as a single support/resistance area.Once the price moves 15-20 pips in the right direction, stop loss should be moved to breakeven.Chart Elements: Support and resistance levels (targets for buy/sell trades, suitable for setting Take Profit)Red lines: trendlines or channels indicating the current trend or directional biasMACD (14,22,3) histogram and signal line — used as a supplemental signal generatorImportant Note: Major speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. During such events, it is best to trade with maximum caution or exit the market entirely to avoid getting caught in sharp price reversals. Beginner traders should remember: Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a sound strategy and utilizing proper money management are key to success over the long run. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dogecoin started a fresh increase above the $0.20 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears $0.2180. DOGE price started a fresh upward move above $0.20 and $0.2050. The price is trading above the $0.20 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $0.1980 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could aim for more gains if it remains stable above $0.1880. Dogecoin Price Eyes Fresh Upside Dogecoin price started a fresh increase after it settled above $0.1880, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE climbed above the $0.20 resistance to enter a positive zone. The bulls were able to push the price above $0.2050 and $0.2120. A high was formed at $0.2182 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $0.1787 swing low to the $0.2182 high. Dogecoin price is now trading above the $0.20 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $0.1980 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. If there is another increase, immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.2085 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.2120 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.2180 level. A close above the $0.2180 resistance might send the price toward $0.2320. Any more gains might send the price toward $0.250. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.2620. Another Decline In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.2120 level, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.20 level. The next major support is near the $0.1980 level and the trend line. The main support sits at $0.1880. If there is a downside break below the $0.1880 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.1720 level or even $0.1650 in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now losing momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.1980 and $0.1880. Major Resistance Levels – $0.2120 and $0.2180.

Review of Tuesday's Trades:1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair moved both upward and downward. However, the British pound had additional reasons to decline early in the session. In the morning, the UK released reports on unemployment and jobless claims, which triggered a sell-off in the pound. Contrary to forecasts and expectations, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1%, and the number of newly unemployed rose by 26,000—significantly above projections. As a result, the decline in sterling was entirely justified. In the second half of the day, Jerome Powell offered some relief for the pound. Once again, he stated that the Federal Reserve has no specific plans to cut interest rates and that decisions will be based solely on incoming macroeconomic data. A bit later, Donald Trump threatened to stop importing vegetable oil from China, which hurt the U.S. dollar and contributed to its fall. Overall, we expect a continued decline in the dollar, particularly after the descending trendline was broken. 5-Minute GBP/USD Chart On the 5-minute timeframe, GBP/USD produced more trading signals than EUR/USD and showed higher volatility. In the early morning, a sell signal was generated around the 1.3329–1.3331 zone. After that, the pair moved down to 1.3259. That support level triggered at least three rebounds throughout the day, and by its end, the pair had returned to the 1.3329–1.3331 area. Therefore, beginner traders could have executed two trades, both of which ended with a profit. How to Trade on Wednesday: On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to form a downward trend, which in our view is long overdue for completion. As previously mentioned, there are no strong reasons for the U.S. dollar to rise over the medium term, so we still anticipate a return to an upward movement. The market remains in a peculiar state. The British pound continues to fall, but there is no clear justification for the decline—outside of technical factors. Much of the current movement appears irrational. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair may attempt a continued upward correction, as the trendline has already been broken. A confirmed breakout above the 1.3329–1.3331 zone also opens the path for initiating long positions with a target at 1.3413. On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at levels 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3682, and 1.3763. For Wednesday, there are no major economic releases scheduled in the UK or U.S., so we may see a flat market or low-volatility price action during the day. Core Trading System Rules:Signal strength is based on how quickly a clear signal forms—a bounce or breakout. The faster the formation, the stronger the signal.If a level has produced two or more false signals recently, ignore future signals from that level.In a sideways (flat) market, many false signals may occur—or none at all. It's best to stop trading if a flat pattern becomes evident.Trades should be opened between the start of the European trading session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually afterward.Trades on the hourly timeframe using MACD signals should only be made when there's good volatility and trend confirmation via trendlines or channels.If two levels are within 5 to 20 pips of one another, they should be treated as a single support/resistance area.Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction, stop loss should be moved to breakeven.Chart Elements:Support and resistance levels (targets for buy/sell trades, suitable for setting Take Profit)Red lines: trendlines or channels indicating the current trend or directional biasMACD (14,22,3) histogram and signal line — used as a supplemental signal generatorImportant Note: Major speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. During such events, it is best to trade with maximum caution or exit the market entirely to avoid getting caught in sharp price reversals. Beginner traders should remember: Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a sound strategy and utilizing proper money management are key to success over the long run. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of Tuesday's Trades:1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair managed to trade in both directions. In the morning, the euro came under pressure due to weaker-than-expected ZEW economic sentiment indices from both Germany and the Eurozone. In the second half of the day, the U.S. dollar faced pressure due to public remarks by Jerome Powell and Donald Trump. Chair Powell once again stated that the Federal Reserve will make decisions based solely on macroeconomic data and also signaled the end of the quantitative tightening program. Both statements could be interpreted in multiple ways. The market still lacks confidence in whether we will see one or two rate cuts this year, though it leans toward two. At the same time, Donald Trump stated that the U.S. can produce its own vegetable oil domestically instead of importing it from China—an announcement that could easily be construed as another escalation in the ongoing trade conflict. In our view, the dollar doesn't need these comments to continue declining, but technically, a descending trendline is still in place, suggesting that the current dollar strength may be part of a broader sideways channel on the daily timeframe. 5-Minute EUR/USD Chart Two trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart on Tuesday. First, the pair broke below the 1.1571–1.1584 range, moving down about 19 pips. Later, the price broke back through the same area from below and rose about 20 pips. Thus, beginner traders could have placed two trades—either of which would have avoided losses. If the second position had been closed manually, it could have yielded a modest profit of around 20 pips. How to Trade on Wednesday: On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair broke through the trendline several times, driven by somewhat questionable news catalysts. We regard the current movement as entirely illogical. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains negative for the U.S. dollar, which is why we do not expect meaningful long-term dollar strength. As before, we believe the greenback can rely only on short-term technical corrections, which we continue to observe now. On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair may move in either direction. Logic is scarcely present in current movements, and there's a fair amount of chaos. A correction may begin following the prolonged recent decline, especially given that Trump has announced another round of tariffs on China. Guessing, however, makes little sense. It is far more effective to follow and execute valid trading signals on the 5-minute chart. On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. The only major data point scheduled in the Eurozone for Wednesday is the industrial production report. The U.S. macroeconomic calendar remains empty due to the government shutdown. Core Trading System Rules:Signal strength is based on how quickly a clear signal forms—a bounce or breakout. The faster the formation, the stronger the signal.If a level has produced two or more false signals recently, ignore future signals from that level.In a sideways (flat) market, many false signals may occur—or none at all. It's best to stop trading if a flat pattern becomes evident.Trades should be opened between the start of the European trading session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually afterward.Trades on the hourly timeframe using MACD signals should only be made when there's good volatility and trend confirmation via trendlines or channels.If two levels are within 5 to 20 pips of one another, they should be treated as a single support/resistance area.Once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction, stop loss should be moved to breakeven.Chart Elements:Support and resistance levels (targets for buy/sell trades, suitable for setting Take Profit)Red lines: trendlines or channels indicating the current trend or directional biasMACD (14,22,3) histogram and signal line — used as a supplemental signal generatorImportant Note: Major speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. During such events, it is best to trade with maximum caution or exit the market entirely to avoid getting caught in sharp price reversals. Beginner traders should remember: Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a sound strategy and utilizing proper money management are key to success over the long run. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how the latest Bitcoin selloff is different from the LUNA and FTX crashes of 2022. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Trend Is Structurally Different For The Latest Crash In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed how the recent bearish action in BTC compares against some of the past crashes. The analytics firm has used the Percent Supply in Profit to make the comparison. This on-chain indicator measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the total Bitcoin circulating supply that’s sitting on some net unrealized gain right now. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to see what price it was last transferred or sold at. If this previous transaction price was less than the latest spot price for any token, then it may be considered to be currently sitting on some profit. The Percent Supply in Profit adds up all coins of this type and determines what percentage of the supply they make up. Another indicator called the Percent Supply in Loss tracks the tokens of the opposite type. If one of these indicators is known, the other can simply be calculated by subtracting it from 100, since the total BTC supply must add up to 100%. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit over the last few years: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit hit the 100% mark earlier in the month when the cryptocurrency’s price set its new all-time high (ATH). When the sharp selloff at the end of last week started, the indicator’s value was still well over the 90% mark, meaning the vast majority of investors were in the green. As such, the crash was more profit-driven, with losses mostly coming from the top buyers. During some of the big crashes of the 2022 bear market, however, the market conditions were quite different. In the LUNA and FTX collapses, the Percent Supply in Profit sat under 65%. In the chart, Glassnode has also highlighted the data of another metric: the Net Realized Profit/Loss, measuring whether profit-taking or loss-taking is dominant on the BTC network. From this indicator, it’s apparent that the aforementioned crashes saw deep negative values, implying a broad capitulation event took place. The 3AC collapse occurred alongside a higher Percent Supply in Profit, but it also witnessed a notable spike in loss-taking. Based on this, Glassnode concludes that the latest Bitcoin crash was “a structurally different, leverage-driven event.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,400, down more than 11% over the last week.

Washington’s latest retirement push could send fresh 401(k) money toward Bitcoin sooner than expected. House Republicans on Tuesday introduced the Retirement Investment Choice Act, a bill that would turn President Donald Trump’s August executive order into law. The proposal formally opens the door for retirement plans to include “alternative assets,” such as funds investing in digital currencies. The move comes as regulators advance guidance on the issue, with Bitcoin trading near $113,000 in a volatile market. If passed, the legislation would give Executive Order 14330 the full force of law. It directs the Labor Department and Securities and Exchange Commission to make room for a wider range of investment choices in defined-contribution plans like 401(k)s. How Will the 180-Day Deadline Affect Employer Retirement Plans? While the order doesn’t require plans to offer crypto, it specifically mentions “actively managed investment vehicles that invest in digital assets.” It also sets a 180-day deadline for the Labor Secretary to clarify fiduciary duties, potentially including safe-harbor protections for employers who choose to offer such options. In May, the Labor Department rescinded its 2022 guidance that had urged plan sponsors to exercise “extreme care” with crypto-related products. The rollback marked a shift to a neutral stance, neither endorsing nor discouraging digital asset exposure in retirement portfolios. In September, the Labor Department said it plans to propose new rules clarifying when asset-allocation funds that include alternatives can be offered. The agency also hinted at potential safe harbors for fiduciaries handling such products. “This Advisory Opinion provides much-needed clarity and certainty as the department works toward issuing proposed regulations,” Deputy Secretary Keith Sonderling said at the time. Bitcoin is trading around $112,985, with intraday moves between roughly $110,099 and $115,916. (Source: Coingecko) According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $326.5 million in net outflows on Tuesday, as global markets weakened amid renewed US-China trade tensions. (Source: SoSoValue) The new executive order directs regulators to coordinate on how alternative assets can fit into default options and managed retirement portfolios. This matters because most savers rely on target-date or professionally managed funds. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in October2025 Why Are BlackRock and KKR Creating Retirement-Ready Investment Products? Industry momentum is growing fast. Empower backed the order in August, saying they plan to expand access to private investments and cryptocurrency alongside lifetime-income options. Major asset managers, including BlackRock and KKR, are now developing retirement-friendly products. Private-market firms are looking at how to make their offerings fit the daily-priced structure of defined-contribution plans. Supporters in Congress say this flexibility could help diversify portfolios without weakening ERISA protections. A House Financial Services Committee letter last month praised the order and urged the Labor Department to create a formal “safe harbor” through rulemaking. Not everyone agrees. Critics warn that adding alternatives, especially crypto, could raise fees, limit liquidity, and bring more volatility to 401(k) plans. Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt has shared how he’s positioning himself for retirement. In a recent post on X, he said he plans to keep 5% of his Bitcoin holdings in his retirement portfolio. The comment came as a follow-up to a question he’d earlier posed to his followers about investment strategies later in life. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Brandt’s approach goes beyond Bitcoin. He’s focusing on steady income and lower risk. Brandt is also choosing dividend-paying stocks for steady income. He is also adding emerging-market exposure for growth and investing in precious metals like gold and silver as a hedge against inflation. He also said he’s cutting back his trading activity. He’s moving from daily to weekly trades to slow his pace as he nears retirement. This strategy marks a move toward stability and reliable returns. Yet, keeping 5% of his portfolio in Bitcoin, he shows he still believes in the asset’s long-term strength. This is true even after the market’s recent slump. To Brandt, Bitcoin remains a hedge against inflation, his version of digital gold. His approach reflects a simple message: as retirement nears, balance and steady income matter more than hype. Brandt also explained why real estate didn’t cut, saying property prices are inflated and could see a major correction soon. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Retirement Portfolios Are About to Pump Your Crypto Stack: Here’s Why appeared first on 99Bitcoins.