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Friday's sell-off, according to many observers, was linked to Binance—one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges—where most of the liquidations took place. There are many versions circulating online about why Bitcoin dropped to $101,000. One of the most compelling theories, in my view, points to issues on Binance itself. According to one report, the collateral for positions on Binance was being evaluated using its own internal order book data rather than external price oracles. When Binance announced on October 6 that it would be switching to oracle-based pricing, it gave a select group of traders enough time for a coordinated attack. During that transition period, organized actors reportedly began manipulating Binance's order book. The resulting forced liquidations triggered mass sales of BTC, ETH, and altcoins. Other exchanges, through bots and cross-market algorithms, mimicked the drop—leading to a cascade of selling across the crypto market. However, this interpretation raises several questions and requires deeper analysis. First and foremost, the claim that the order book was manipulated must be backed by credible evidence, not speculation. Specific accounts allegedly involved in the attack would need to be identified, and any unusual trading volumes or price anomalies during the timeframe should be thoroughly analyzed. Moreover, while switching to oracle-based pricing is certainly a step toward increased transparency and platform safety, it does not fully eliminate the risk of manipulation. Oracles themselves can be exploited, and delays in the information they deliver can give certain traders unfair advantages. Finally, more fundamental macroeconomic events must also be considered—such as the abrupt U.S. announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. This news sparked a sharp sell-off in global equity markets, which in turn weighed heavily on the crypto space. Trading recommendations Buyers of Bitcoin are currently aiming to reclaim the $116,300 level. A breakout here would open a clear path to $118,400, and from there to $120,600. The most distant target is the $122,400 area—breaking above this level would indicate renewed bullish momentum. In the event of further declines, buyer interest is expected around $114,200. A move below this level could send BTC quickly down to $112,800, followed by $111,200 as the next major support zone. As for Ethereum, a solid consolidation above $4,169 opens the path to $4,244. The furthest upside objective is the $4,318 level—surpassing it would confirm increased buyer interest and further reinforcement of the uptrend. If Ethereum falls lower, buyers are expected at $4,061. Dropping below this area could push ETH toward $3,942, with the most distant support around $3,827. What we see on the chart: - Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or a strong move is expected; - Green lines represent the 50-day moving average; - Blue lines represent the 100-day moving average; - Light green lines represent the 200-day moving average. Generally, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Following the massive crash that Bitcoin and the entire crypto market suffered over the weekend, the Fear & Greed Index has been pushed down to its lowest level in the last six months. This index, which measures the market sentiment and shows on a scale how investors are feeling about the crypto market, has now fallen back into the Extreme Fear territory. The number on the scale now shows the lowest level it has been since the market crash back in April 2025. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Sees Major Crash The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index uses a number of factors to determine how investors are feeling about the market. It takes into account things like volatility, social sentiment aggregated across different social media platforms, market volume and momentum, and market dominance to come to a figure. The data is aggregated, which puts it on a scale of 1-100, with 1-25 being Extreme Fear, 26-46 being Fear, 47-54 being Neutral, 55-75 representing Greed, and 76-100 representing Extreme Greed. Each of these shows either bullishness, bearishness, or nonchalance in the market. The most recent data shows that the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index crashed to 24 on Sunday. This puts the index firmly in Extreme Fear territory, suggesting that investors are extremely cautious at this point. It also shows a reluctance to enter into any positions at this time. This is the result of the massive liquidation event that happened last Friday, with crypto traders losing over $19 billion in one day. Thus, it is no surprise that fear has gripped the market. However, this would also present a unique opportunity in the market. Buy When The Market Is Bleeding One of the oldest sayings in the financial world is to “buy when there is blood on the streets.” This represents times of extreme losses, where most investors are scared to put their money in the market. Thus, with the market teetering on Extreme Fear, it could be the time to buy. The last time that the market declined into Extreme Fear this low was back in April 2025, and what followed was a rally that saw the Bitcoin price reach new all-time highs in May 2025. If this trend holds, then the market could be looking at a possible rapid increase. By Sunday, the market was already recovering, with the Bitcoin price crossing $114,000 and Ethereum making its way back above $4,000. It is still quite early to tell if the market is in a full recovery trend, but with prices already bouncing, it could signal the next wave of gains.

Trade Review and USD/JPY Trading TipsA test of the 152.52 level occurred when the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar, which resulted in an 80-pip drop in the pair. The Japanese yen surged sharply, while the dollar declined after Donald Trump announced he is once again considering 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. This sudden spike in the yen—traditionally regarded as a "safe haven" currency—visibly reflected the fear that gripped global markets in response to the president's unexpected announcement. Investors, fearing another wave of global economic turbulence, rushed to seek safe refuge. The yen, due to its reputation for stability and low volatility, became one of the preferred choices. The sharp decline in the dollar underscored the vulnerability of the U.S. economy in the face of a potential trade war. The threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods not only harms the competitiveness of U.S. companies but also invites retaliatory measures from Beijing that could severely impact American export industries. The situation is further complicated by the unpredictability of Trump's announcements, which often stem from political maneuvering rather than sound economic rationale. This adds an extra layer of difficulty for investors and businesses forced to strategize amid total uncertainty. The main question now is whether world leaders will be able to contain the trade tensions or whether we're on the threshold of a new era dominated by protectionism and economic chaos. As for today's intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing scenarios №1 and №2. Buy ScenariosScenario №1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 152.04 (thin green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 152.56 (thicker green line on the chart). At 152.56, I intend to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 pip correction from the level. It's best to approach buying on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY.Important: Before opening a buy trade, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.Scenario №2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 151.77 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside potential and could lead to an upward reversal. The expected targets would then be 152.04 and 152.56.Sell ScenariosScenario №1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a confirmed break below the 151.77 level (thin red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 151.41 level, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 pip correction from the level.Important: Before opening a sell trade, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.Scenario №2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 152.04 level, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would restrict the bullish potential and could result in a reversal downward. The expected downside targets in this case would be 151.77 and 151.41. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price level for buying the trading instrumentThick green line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as a further rise above this level is unlikelyThin red line – entry price level for selling the trading instrumentThick red line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as further decline beyond this point is unlikelyMACD indicator – when entering the market, be guided by its position in the overbought or oversold zonesImportant: Beginner forex traders should be extremely cautious with entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it's best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to abrupt price swings. If you do decide to trade during high-impact events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, your account balance can deplete quickly, especially if you neglect proper money management and trade large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan—like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and GBP/USD Trading TipsA test of the 1.3310 level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The British pound rose sharply, while the U.S. dollar declined following Donald Trump's renewed consideration of implementing 100% tariffs against China. Waves of panic swept through financial markets, forcing investors to hastily reassess their strategies. Trump's statements, as unexpected as a bolt from the blue, immediately drove the dollar down, exposing its vulnerability in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. The British currency—seemingly unaffected directly by the U.S.–China conflict—capitalized on the situation and demonstrated unexpected resilience. However, the optimism observed in currency markets may be short-lived. Further escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China may have unpredictable consequences for the global economy, including the United Kingdom. No economic reports are expected from the U.K. today, which makes the speech by Megan Greene particularly important. Her remarks on inflation risks, economic growth prospects, and the potential for further interest rate increases could influence both the short-term dynamics of the pound and broader market sentiment. Investors and analysts will be closely watching for any signs pointing to the Bank of England's intentions regarding monetary policy. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios №1 and №2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point near 1.3362 (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3401 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3401, I plan to close long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement. This setup plays off continuation from Friday's upward trend.Important: Before entering a buy trade, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3341 level, provided the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This setup would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal toward 1.3362 and 1.3401.Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below the 1.3341 level (thin red line on the chart), which would likely result in strong downward momentum. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3309 level, where I plan to take profit and open new long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip retracement. Pound sellers will take advantage of any opportunity to extend losses.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun declining from it.Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3362 level, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This scenario would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal toward 1.3341 and 1.3309. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price level for buying the trading instrumentThick green line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as a further rise above this level is unlikelyThin red line – entry price level for selling the trading instrumentThick red line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as further decline beyond this point is unlikelyMACD indicator – when entering the market, be guided by its position in the overbought or oversold zonesImportant: Beginner forex traders should be extremely cautious with entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it's best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to abrupt price swings. If you do decide to trade during high-impact events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, your account balance can deplete quickly, especially if you neglect proper money management and trade large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan—like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and EUR/USD Trading TipsA test of the 1.1595 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun rising from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair moved up toward the target level of 1.1619. News of declining inflation expectations in the U.S. exerted pressure on the dollar. Fresh data pointing to expected slower consumer price growth over the coming months led traders to revise their outlooks regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. The probability of a rate cut during the October FOMC meeting remains relatively high. A swift reaction also followed after Trump announced potential 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods. The U.S. dollar dropped sharply as investors, troubled by the unpredictability of the trade confrontation, rushed to shift capital into safer currencies and precious metals. The effects of these developments extend beyond the financial sector. Representatives of U.S. industry, dependent on Chinese components and raw materials, expressed concerns about a significant increase in production costs. Consumers, in turn, may again face rising prices for a wide range of Chinese-imported goods. The future direction of the market will depend on how quickly U.S. and Chinese authorities can de-escalate the conflict. This morning, unfortunately, the only macroeconomic report is Germany's Producer Price Index. No other important reports are expected today. Monitoring the dynamics of Germany's wholesale price index is crucial for assessing several processes, including inflation trends. A moderate increase in this figure could indicate potential deflation risks, which may lead the European Central Bank to consider further stimulus measures. Moreover, the lack of significant economic data may shift investor focus toward alternative drivers, the primary one currently being the trade conflict. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the euro today upon reaching the 1.1626 level (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1655. At 1.1655, I intend to close the position and open a sell trade in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback from the entry point. This move would be in the context of a correction.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests the 1.1611 level twice consecutively while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This setup would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal, with expected targets at 1.1626 and 1.1655.Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1611 level (thin red line on the chart). The target in this case will be 1.1590, where I intend to exit the trade and place a buy order for a rebound in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 pip move).Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun declining from it.Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1626 twice consecutively while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This setup would limit the upward potential and lead to a downward reversal, with expected targets at 1.1611 and 1.1590. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price level for buying the trading instrumentThick green line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as a further rise above this level is unlikelyThin red line – entry price level for selling the trading instrumentThick red line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as further decline beyond this point is unlikelyMACD indicator – when entering the market, be guided by its position in the overbought or oversold zonesImportant: Beginner forex traders should be extremely cautious with entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it's best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to abrupt price swings. If you do decide to trade during high-impact events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, your account balance can deplete quickly, especially if you neglect proper money management and trade large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan—like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What to Know: GameFi reached 1M daily users in Q1 2025 and is expected to grow 5x through 2032 Tapzi leverages skill-based games, making it one of the top GameFi crypto projects to watch now. $TAPZI is currently available for just $0.0035 in presale, with a planned launch price of $0.01, indicating serious returns even before the TGE and exchange listings. Web3 gaming is now one of the fastest-growing crypto sectors. Boasting over 1M users globally in Q1, 2025, it’s predicted to grow in value from $25B in 2024 to nearly $125B by 2032. Thanks to verifiable ownership of assets and strong incentive loops, the sector is attracting gamers from every corner of the world. However, not many GameFi projects have fully leveraged these new blockchain capabilities, instead relying on chance mechanics rather than skill-based gameplay. Most fail to retain gamers in the long run, as they get distracted by speculative trading. But a gaming economy can’t survive without gamers, underscoring the importance of strong gameplay. That’s exactly why Tapzi could be the next crypto to explode. Early backers are stocking up on the project’s native crypto $TAPZI in its hot presale before the prices surge – and here’s why. Tapzi Brings Skill to Bear The project steps into the fertile GameFi niche with a razor-sharp plan. Unlike typical GameFi platforms built on chance, passive mechanics, or hype-driven tokens, Tapzi delivers a player-centric ecosystem where active participation and smart gameplay directly drive real earnings and token growth. Here, the focus is on creating a GameFi ecosystem that keep players coming back for more. The arcade will offer games like Chess, Checkers, Rock-Paper-Scissors, and Tic-Tac-Toe, where victory depends on skill more than luck. Players can stake $TAPZI tokens to compete and unlock rewards as they get better at the game. Projects that can sustain organic demand and expand their user base over time are the best bets in a maturing market. Why Tapzi Could Explode Next Tapzi’s gaming arcade is designed not just for Web3 gamers, but also for traditional gamers. To attract them, the project lowers both technical and financial entry barriers, particularly when it comes to setting up a crypto wallet and transferring tokenized assets. Tapzi offers a free, gasless practice mode open to all. Players can switch to the paid mode at any time. The paid mode runs on BNB Chain for cheap, fast gameplay. Top players earn attractive token rewards with real-world value. $TAPZI powers all rewards and transactions across the ecosystem. Visit the Tapzi website for a closer look at the gameplay. Another factor that strengthens Tapzi’s long-term outlook is its bid to expand skill-based gameplay in the GameFi market. The project will offer SDKs and exposure to like-minded developers, building a skill-based gaming hub. Next is the roadmap, which focuses on gradual, phased infrastructure development. The demo web beta will go live this quarter. Multiplayer engines with sample games, a staking preview, and matchmaking features will then follow. NFT avatars, cosmetic stores and rarity system, analytics dashboard, and multilingual support will be integrated in later phases. Global gaming tournaments will be held regularly to acquire users worldwide. Large-scale user acquisition campaigns are also coming, with 10% of the token supply allocated each for marketing and airdrops. But even tokens backed by utility-rich, promising projects aren’t immune to early-stage dumps. Tapzi has implemented a strong vesting schedule to prevent this: Only 25% of the presale tokens unlock at TGE, 75% vest over three months to cushion sudden supply shocks. In addition, team tokens are locked for six months and vested over 18 months. This ensures the team’s commitment to timely project development. How to Buy $TAPZI Early and Cheap Now is the right time to buy $TAPZI at early-bird prices. The token is available for purchase at fixed, discounted prices in its presale, which supports payments in cryptocurrencies and fiat cards. $TAPZI is currently available for just $0.0035, but the planned launch price is $0.01, leaving plenty of room for returns even before the TGE and exchange launches. But the post-launch rally could take the token even higher, with key development milestones scheduled for this quarter. As one of the top GameFi coins to enter the market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see $TAPZI climb the top crypto charts. But keep in mind: The price increases with each new stage, with the presale sell-out date approaching fast. Make the most of the GameFi mania – Get into the $TAPZI presale before the next price hike. As always, do your own research before investing in crypto. This is not financial advice. Authored by Bogdan Patru – NewsBTC https://www.newsbtc.com/news/gamefi-mania-why-tapzi-is-the-next-crypto-to-explode/

Solana started a fresh increase above the $180 zone. SOL price is now consolidating above $185 and might aim for more gains above the $200 zone. SOL price started a fresh upward move above the $175 and $180 levels against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $188 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend gains if it clears the $200 resistance zone. Solana Price Eyes More Gains Solana price started a decent increase after it found support near the $155 zone, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed above the $172 level to enter a short-term positive zone. The price even smashed the $180 resistance. The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $225 swing high to the $155 low. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $188 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. Solana is now trading below $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $198 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $225 swing high to the $155 low. The next major resistance is near the $200 level. The main resistance could be $205. A successful close above the $205 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $212. Any more gains might send the price toward the $220 level. Another Decline In SOL? If SOL fails to rise above the $200 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $190 zone and the trend line. The first major support is near the $182 level. A break below the $182 level might send the price toward the $175 support zone. If there is a close below the $175 support, the price could decline toward the $160 support in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $188 and $182. Major Resistance Levels – $198 and $200.

Macroeconomic Data Overview: There are no macroeconomic releases scheduled for Monday. As a result, we are likely to see a typical "quiet Monday" with low volatility and no intraday trend movement. However, we remind you that on Friday, Donald Trump announced a new round of 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, and traders had very little time to price in this event. Therefore, today the U.S. dollar may continue to weaken. Fundamental Events Overview: Two fundamental events are scheduled for today: In the United States: a speech by Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee member Lawrence PaulsonIn the Eurozone: a speech by European Central Bank representative Claudia BuchHowever, it's important to keep in mind that last week Jerome Powell already addressed the market and made it clear to traders: The Fed will continue to make decisions based on macroeconomic data, and another interest rate cut is not guaranteed. Previously, Powell expressed the same rhetoric. He does not rule out two rate cuts before the end of the year, but he does not promise them either. How the Fed will decide at the end of October—especially if the government shutdown is still in effect—remains unknown, as no key reports on inflation, unemployment, or labor market conditions have been released. As for the ECB, there is no uncertainty whatsoever. Christine Lagarde has spoken five or six times over the past two weeks, clearly stating that any adjustments to monetary policy should not be expected in the near future. Therefore, there is no intrigue whatsoever in today's speeches by central bank officials from either side. General Conclusions:On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to trade chaotically and illogically. So far, we have mostly seen a decline in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with no solid explanations. However, Trump once again steps in. Today, the euro may continue pushing higher toward 1.1655–1.1666, and the British pound toward 1.3413–1.3421. Basic Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is determined by how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signals appear near the same level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals—or none at all. At the first signs of flat, consider suspending trading.Trades should be opened during the European session and held until mid-U.S. session. After that, all positions should be closed manually.On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used when good volatility and a trend are confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.If two levels are too close together (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.After the price moves 15-20 pips in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and resistance levels – targets for opening long or short trades. Take Profit points can be set near these levels.Red lines – trendlines or channels indicating the current trend and directional bias.MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line used as a supplementary signal source.Important speeches and economic releases (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency movement. Traders should be especially cautious or exit positions before such events to avoid sudden price reversals. Beginner traders in the forex market must remember: not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and applying sound money management principles are keys to long-term success in trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday's Trade Review: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also showed signs of recovery on Friday, although in the first half of the session, it once again attempted to resume its decline and failed to break through the descending trendline. Therefore, the downtrend remains in effect for now, even though it is entirely illogical. The rise of the dollar should have come to an end a week ago. Even then, there were more than enough reasons for the U.S. currency to resume falling. Over the past week, those reasons have only multiplied, especially after Donald Trump initiated a new round of trade war escalation with China—a key reason for the dollar's collapse earlier this year. Even central bank monetary policy had taken a back seat to geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the U.S. is in the midst of a government shutdown, and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates, unlike the European Central Bank or the Bank of England. As such, there is currently no justification for expecting the dollar to strengthen further. 5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair In the 5-minute time frame, a strong buy signal was formed during the European session on Friday. The price bounced with precision from the 1.3259 level and then gained 80–90 pips, consolidating above the 1.3329–1.3331 zone. By Friday evening, novice traders had the opportunity to close their trades with a solid profit. Today, a bounce from the 1.3329–1.3331 zone is another reason to look for long entries. How to Trade on Monday:On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to form a downward trend. As mentioned previously, there are no strong reasons to expect prolonged dollar strength. In the medium term, we continue to expect an upward movement. That said, the market is currently in a very strange state. The pound is falling, but without any clear justification. While technical strategies on lower timeframes remain applicable, current price behavior appears illogical across all timeframes. On Monday, the GBP/USD pair may continue its upward movement, as the 1.3329–1.3331 zone was breached on Friday. A bounce from this area opens the door for long positions with a target at 1.3413–1.3421. Failure to hold above this zone would make short positions relevant, with a target at 1.3259. On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels can be used for trading: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. No critical or noteworthy events/reports are scheduled in the U.K. or U.S. on Monday, so today's volatility may remain low. Basic Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is determined by how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signals appear near the same level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals—or none at all. At the first signs of flat, consider suspending trading.Trades should be opened during the European session and held until mid-U.S. session. After that, all positions should be closed manually.On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used when good volatility and a trend are confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.If two levels are too close together (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.After the price moves 20 pips in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and resistance levels – targets for opening long or short trades. Take Profit points can be set near these levels.Red lines – trendlines or channels indicating the current trend and directional bias.MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line used as a supplementary signal source.Important speeches and economic releases (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency movement. Traders should be especially cautious or exit positions before such events to avoid sudden price reversals. Beginner traders in the forex market must remember: not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and applying sound money management principles are keys to long-term success in trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday's Trade Review:1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair began a new leg of upward correction within the broader downward trend. In simpler terms, the recent decline of the euro over the past several weeks is either part of a larger correction or simply a phase of sideways consolidation on higher timeframes. As mentioned previously, the current drop in the euro is illogical. A continuous stream of U.S. news has been pushing traders toward only one action—selling the dollar. Yet on the daily timeframe, in conditions of a flat market, price movement in either direction doesn't require macroeconomic or fundamental reasoning. The key question is: when will the flat end? The primary goal for traders right now is to be ready for a possible resumption of the uptrend and to recognize that the fall in the euro is entirely against the grain—unsupported by fundamentals or macro data. On Friday, the only economic release was the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which beat expectations—but the dollar was already falling that day. There is no clear logic in the current movements. 5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair On the 5-minute timeframe, most of Friday's session was spent in sideways movement between the 1.1571–1.1584 range. When Trump announced new tariffs on China, the U.S. dollar came under pressure; however, the sell-off was short-lived. Novice traders might have opened long positions, which—given the Stop Loss was moved to breakeven—could have been left open until Monday. We expect continued growth in the pair. How to Trade on Monday:On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD has punctured the trendline multiple times but resumed its decline for unclear reasons. We view the current movement as entirely illogical. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains highly unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, and we do not expect any sustained appreciation of the greenback. From our point of view, just like before, the dollar can only count on technical corrections—one of which we are observing now. On Monday, EUR/USD may move in either direction. There is little logic and a great deal of uncertainty in the market right now. A correction is likely to continue after the prolonged decline, especially following Trump's announcement of new tariffs. Therefore, we expect another wave of growth, at least toward the 1.1655–1.1666 area. On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be monitored: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. No significant events are scheduled in either the U.S. or the Eurozone on Monday, which means volatility may be limited. Basic Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is determined by how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signals appear near the same level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals—or none at all. At the first signs of flat, consider suspending trading.Trades should be opened during the European session and held until mid-U.S. session. After that, all positions should be closed manually.On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used when good volatility and a trend are confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.If two levels are too close together (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.After the price moves 15 pips in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and resistance levels – targets for opening long or short trades. Take Profit points can be set near these levels.Red lines – trendlines or channels indicating the current trend and directional bias.MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line used as a supplementary signal source.Important speeches and economic releases (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency movement. Traders should be especially cautious or exit positions before such events to avoid sudden price reversals. Beginner traders in the forex market must remember: not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and applying sound money management principles are keys to long-term success in trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Gold] – [Monday, October 13, 2025] With all technical indicators currently signaling strength for gold, then there is potential for further gains today as long as there is no new bearish information appears to weaken the gold. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 4071.45 2. Resistance. 1 : 4044.62 3. Pivot : 3966.60 4. Support. 1 : 3968.77 5. Support. 2 : 3919.75 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If gold breaks and closes above 3966.60, there is potential to test the 4044.62 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 4044.62 is successfully breached and closes above it, gold may extend its upward move toward 4071.45. Level Invalidation / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if gold declines and breaks and closes below 3919.75. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 4013.73 EMA(200): 3988.82 RSI(14) : 66.07 Economic News Release Agenda: There are no scheduled economic data releases from the United States today. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Silver] – [Monday, October 13, 2025] Although the RSI remains in the Neutral-Bullish territory and both EMAs continue to show a Golden Cross formation, but the appearance of a Bearish Divergence between the RSI and Silver's price signals a potential near-term weakening. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 52.278 2. Resistance. 1 : 51.177 3. Pivot : 49.963 4. Support. 1 : 48.862 5. Support. 2 : 47.648 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If silver breaks and closes below 49.963, it may continue weakening toward 48.862. Momentum Extension Bias: If 48.862 is breached and closes below, silver could test the next support at 47.648. Level Invalidation / Bias Revision The downside bias is neutralized if silver breaks through and closes above 52.278. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 50.176 EMA(200): 49.233 RSI(14) : 66.04 Economic News Release Agenda: There are no scheduled economic data releases from the United States today. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP price started a fresh increase above $2.250. The price is now showing positive signs but faces a major hurdle near the $2.60 level. XRP price is attempting a recovery wave above the $2.50 zone. The price is now trading below $2.60 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.660 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh decline if it settles below $2.70. XRP Price Starts Recovery XRP price found support and started a strong recovery wave above $2.0, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above the $2.20 and $2.25 levels to enter a positive zone. There was a decent increase above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $1.40 swing low. However, the price could face hurdles near $2.60. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.660 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading below $2.60 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $2.60 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.660 level and the trend line. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $1.40 swing low. A clear move above the $2.660 resistance might send the price toward the $2.70 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.720 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $2.80. Another Decline? If XRP fails to clear the $2.60 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.450 level. The next major support is near the $2.40 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.40 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.320. The next major support sits near the $2.30 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $2.250. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.450 and $2.40. Major Resistance Levels – $2.60 and $2.660.

Friday's statement by U.S. President Donald Trump on imposing a 100% tariff on all categories of Chinese goods triggered a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrency and equity markets. The total capitalization of the crypto market—comprising 9,510 coins—fell by 6.16% on the day, with another similar drop over the weekend. Combined, this amounted to a 13.5% decline at its lowest point. By Monday morning, the market had recovered about half of those losses. The S&P 500 stock index dropped by 2.71%. The yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined from 3.76% to 3.64%. It's somewhat surprising, then, that the euro gained 57 pips during Friday's session. The Australian dollar, by contrast, fell nearly 80 pips on the same day. We believe that Friday's panic was contained, which preserves the possibility of further recovery across financial markets. A notable observation is that trading volume on Friday in the euro was not particularly high—it was comparable to that of October 6. On the daily timeframe, the price has returned above the target level of 1.1605. If it manages to break above the MACD line at 1.1675, the level at 1.1779 could be tested again. The Marlin oscillator, currently in the downward trend zone, is attempting to enter bullish territory. Visually, this transition may occur simultaneously with a breakout above 1.1675. If the price consolidates below 1.1605, the downside target at 1.1495 will become relevant. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the 1.1605 level, and the Marlin oscillator has entered bullish territory. The nearest resistance is at 1.1655, which coincides with the MACD line. We are awaiting a confirmed breakout above this level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The British pound, like the euro, ended Friday's session with gains—likely driven by market expectations of benefiting from the political and economic standoff between the U.S. and China. During the previous session, the price nearly covered the entire target range of 1.3253 to 1.3369. This morning, the pair is attempting to break above resistance at 1.3369. If successful, the next major test will be the MACD line at 1.3417. A confirmed breakout above this level would open the path toward the next bullish target at 1.3525. On the four-hour chart, the pair still needs to break above the 1.3385 resistance level and consolidate above the MACD line, which also lies at 1.3385. Marlin is still in negative territory, but the formed convergence adds a dose of optimism. The development of upward movement in the short term remains the main scenario. For a downward move to develop, the price needs to go below the support level of 1.3253, which it failed to do on Friday. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Friday, the Australian dollar fell by 79 pips, apparently in response to a 4.24% drop in WTI crude oil. However, oil recovered by 1.24% over the weekend, leading AUD/USD to start the new trading week with a gap. Currently, the price is fluctuating within a range between the support level at 0.6450 and the resistance marked by the MACD line at 0.6560. This is a zone of uncertainty—a drifting range. In fact, it is part of an even broader range between 0.6374 and 0.6668, where the pair has been consolidating since mid-April. Nonetheless, the price gap left by Monday's open needs to be closed, which creates bearish pressure within the range. A confirmed move below the 0.6450 support level will open the way for a decline toward 0.6374. Conversely, a breakout above 0.6560 will target 0.6668, though this scenario can only be realized if the intermediate resistance at 0.6627 is also cleared. On the four-hour timeframe, the MACD line is located very close to its daily timeframe counterpart. A break and consolidation above these intersecting lines may trigger an impulsive rally toward the first target at 0.6627. However, this bullish setup may be hindered by the weakness of the Marlin oscillator. At the moment, Marlin is rising ahead of price, and once it touches the zero line—the boundary of bullish territory—it may reverse downward. If this occurs, price action may stall and fail to reach the MACD line. We await further developments. The main movement may happen tomorrow. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum price started a fresh recovery above $4,000. ETH is now showing positive signs but faces a major resistance near the $4,250 level. Ethereum started a recovery wave above the $4,000 and $4,100 levels. The price is trading above $4,150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,100 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it trades above $4,250. Ethereum Price Starts Recovery Ethereum price started a recovery wave after a massive selloff below $3,800, like Bitcoin. ETH price formed a base and was able to recover above the $4,000 level. The price cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the sharp decline from the $4,758 swing high to the $3,423 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,100 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,200 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,250 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the sharp decline from the $4,758 swing high to the $3,423 low. The first major resistance is near the $4,320 level. A clear move above the $4,320 resistance might send the price toward the $4,400 resistance. An upside break above the $4,400 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,450 resistance zone or even $4,500 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,250 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,120 level. The first major support sits near the $4,100 zone. A clear move below the $4,100 support might push the price toward the $4,020 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,950 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,880. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,020 Major Resistance Level – $4,250

Bitcoin price corrected losses and traded above the $114,000 level. BTC is now struggling and might face hurdles near the $116,000 level. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $113,500 resistance level. The price is trading below $116,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $119,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $113,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Recovery Bitcoin price started a recovery wave after a massive liquidation event below $110,000. BTC recovered above the $111,500 and $112,000 resistance levels. The price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the sharp decline from the $123,750 swing high to the $100,000 low. The bulls even pushed the price above the $113,500 resistance level. However, there are many hurdles on the upside. Bitcoin is now trading below $116,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $119,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $116,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $116,250 level. The next resistance could be $118,000 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the sharp decline from the $123,750 swing high to the $100,000 low. A close above the $118,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $119,500 resistance and the trend line. Any more gains might send the price toward the $120,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $122,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $116,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $114,000 level. The first major support is near the $113,500 level. The next support is now near the $113,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $112,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $113,500, followed by $112,500. Major Resistance Levels – $116,000 and $118,000.

The GBP/USD currency pair has been falling actively for the past few weeks, without any solid or objective reasons. Or to be more precise, the number of compelling GBP-selling factors has been even fewer than those for the euro. However, switching to the daily timeframe immediately shows that the British pound has been trading sideways for months. Therefore, the current decline holds little significance. In fact, the lower the pair drops now, the higher it is likely to rise later. We fully expect the decline to continue toward the last local low near 1.3140, from which the next bullish wave for the pound may begin. Let us recall once again that the U.S. government shutdown has been in effect since October 1. Macroeconomic data is not being released, which means the market has nothing new to react to. Reports such as final inflation numbers from Germany and the Eurozone. These are secondary indicators for several reasons. First, second estimates rarely differ from the initial release. Second, inflation is not an immediate threat to the European Central Bank, which has already made that clear. Third, ECB President Christine Lagarde has stated outright that there is no need to change the key rate in the near term—the current inflationary level suits the central bank just fine. What else? Economic sentiment indexes? Industrial production data? More speeches from Powell and Lagarde that provide meaningful insights once in ten appearances? Both Powell and Lagarde spoke last week, and neither offered anything new. Lagarde remains neutral, and Powell won't have a reason to shift his tone until the shutdown ends and the Fed has access to fresh data on jobs, inflation, and economic growth. So there are no notable updates expected from him in the near term. In fact, the key U.S. inflation report originally scheduled for this week will not be published. The same applies to unemployment claims, producer prices, and retail sales—all of which are delayed. As a result, the most "meaningful" report releases this week will come from the U.K. But expectations remain low. The following indicators will be published in the U.K.: Unemployment rateAverage earnings changeJobless claimsMonthly GDPIndustrial productionIf any of these surprise significantly, the market may react, but the broader sentiment is dictated by global events—not by British macroeconomic data. More likely, the market will continue pricing in Trump's escalating trade war with China starting Monday. Even if the downward correction persists, it's highly probable that this is merely setting the stage for bulls to re-enter at more favorable levels ahead of the next upward wave of the 2025 bullish trend. So one way or another, we continue to expect upward movement in the long term. The British reports are interesting, but global geopolitical developments are clearly shaping current market sentiment—and there are plenty of them right now. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading sessions is 96 pips, which is considered "average." Thus, for Monday, October 13, we expect the pair to trade between 1.3259 and 1.3451. The higher linear regression channel is still pointing upward, confirming the longer-term bullish trend. The CCI indicator entered oversold territory for a third time—another signal warning of a likely resumption of the upward trend. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3306S2 – 1.3245S3 – 1.3184Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3367R2 – 1.3428R3 – 1.3489Trading RecommendationsThe GBP/USD pair is undergoing a technical correction, but its long-term outlook remains bullish. The policies of Donald Trump will likely continue pressuring the U.S. dollar, and we do not expect substantive strengthening from the greenback in the current environment. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain highly relevant as long as the price is trading above the moving average. When the price is below the moving average, short-term short positions can be considered with targets at 1.3259 and 1.3245, based solely on technical signals. From time to time, the dollar makes corrections—as it is now—but it will require resolution of the trade war or some other global-positive catalyst to turn the trend durable in its favor. Explanation of Chart Features:Linear regression channels help define the current trend. If both channels are pointing in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (20,0, smoothed) shows the short-term trend and preferred trading direction.Murray levels are target zones used in wave movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) define the likely price range for the day based on current volatility conditions.CCI Indicator: A move into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought levels (above +250) signals a potential trend reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD pair has been in a downward movement over the past two weeks. From a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective, we continue to view this decline as completely illogical. We won't repeat the long list of dollar-negative factors that were ignored by the market during this period. Instead, let's focus on what lies ahead. It's important to note that from a technical standpoint, the current decline doesn't raise any questions. On the daily timeframe, we observe a clear flat pattern. Within a flat, the price can move in either direction without the need for strong catalysts. The market has ignored a slew of negative U.S. news in recent weeks, so we believe that at some point these factors will be priced in. For now, we are seeing another round of technical correction. The political crisis in France certainly did not trigger the fall of the euro—such a reaction would only be possible if it were the sole influencing factor. But the news stream has been persistent and varied, with the most recent development—Trump's new tariffs—not yet fully priced into the market. The trade war between the U.S. and China is intensifying once again, although many traders had concluded that it was either resolved or had transitioned into a subdued phase. We warned earlier that a figure like Trump—a businessman to the core—would squeeze every last drop out of his trade partners. Signed trade agreements carry little weight; a deal today, tariffs tomorrow. For example, Trump could at any moment accuse the European Union of "funding the war in Ukraine" by purchasing Russian oil and gas—and use that as grounds to impose new tariffs. Any excuse will do. Currently, the U.S. has imposed a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports. We are quite certain this is only the first in a new wave of sanctions from Trump. He will squeeze not just other countries but also his own citizens, as they will ultimately pay these tariffs. At the same time, Trump is attempting to force other nations to buy as many goods, resources, and services from the U.S. as possible—or to hand over money under vague pretenses. Recall that Japan and the European Union signed extremely one-sided deals requiring them to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into the U.S. economy and purchase U.S. energy on a massive scale. Thus, the purpose of Trump's tariffs is to force trade partners to buy American under a respectable pretext while simultaneously burdening the U.S. population through higher import duties—all while slashing social and medical programs. Publicly, however, Trump will continue touting lower taxes and the "miraculous" growth of U.S. GDP. Therefore, we expect the U.S. dollar to continue weakening regardless of technical bounces. The average volatility of EUR/USD over the past five trading days, as of October 11, is 73 pips, which is classified as "average." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1544 and 1.1700 on Monday. The higher linear regression channel is sloping upward, which still indicates a long-term bullish trend. Meanwhile, the CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, which may trigger the next wave of upward movement. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1597S2 – 1.1536S3 – 1.1414Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1658R2 – 1.1719R3 – 1.1780Trading RecommendationsThe EUR/USD pair continues its correction, though the overall uptrend remains intact, as seen on higher timeframes. The U.S. dollar continues to be pressured by Donald Trump's economic agenda, and he shows no signs of stopping. The dollar has seen some gains recently, but the reasons for them are ambiguous. Either way, the ongoing flat pattern on the daily chart explains the recent moves. If the price is positioned below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1544 and 1.1536 on purely technical grounds. If the pair moves above the moving average, long positions remain relevant, with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902 in continuation of the broader uptrend. Explanation of Chart Features:Linear regression channels help define the current trend. If both channels are pointing in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (20,0, smoothed) shows the short-term trend and preferred trading direction.Murray levels are target zones used in wave movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) define the likely price range for the day based on current volatility conditions.CCI Indicator: A move into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought levels (above +250) signals a potential trend reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair also traded with gains on Friday, which seemed somewhat contradictory given the macroeconomic background, though it was perfectly in line with the broader context. The global fundamental backdrop remains sharply negative for the U.S. dollar, making any dollar strength appear as nothing more than a technical correction. On the daily timeframe (where the core correction unfolds), corrections lasting several weeks or even months are absolutely standard. On the hourly chart, such a correction or sideways movement often appears as a series of alternating trends. From a technical standpoint, the downtrend remains intact. The price continues to move below the trendline and below the Ichimoku indicator lines. Therefore, the corrective movement may persist for a while longer. Over the past two weeks, the market has ignored several bearish dollar drivers, but can it ignore a new escalation in Trump's trade war with China? Perhaps we'll have an answer by Monday or Tuesday. If the upward movement continues, the trendline will break, and both major currency pairs (EUR/USD and GBP/USD) will begin pointing upward. On the 5-minute chart, four trading signals were generated on Friday. Initially, the pair bounced twice from the 1.3307 level but managed to decline by only about 30 pips. This short setup didn't bring a loss, but likely didn't generate notable profit either. During the U.S. session, a buy signal formed near the same 1.3307 level, and the price surged rapidly, so only quick traders could catch that entry. Nevertheless, the designated target area of 1.3369–1.3377 was reached. A bounce from this resistance zone allowed short positions to be considered, but this last signal came too late in the session to trade. COT Report COT reports for the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has been constantly shifting in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, cross frequently and generally remain near the zero line. Currently, they are practically aligned—indicating a nearly equal number of long and short positions. The dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policy actions, which diminish the relevance of asset manager demand for the pound in the short term. The trade war, in one form or another, is expected to persist over the long term. The Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates during the coming year, contributing to continued downward pressure on the dollar. According to the latest COT report on the pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 long contracts and closed 900 short contracts—resulting in a net increase of 4,600 contracts. In 2025, the pound experienced strong growth, mainly due to Trump's political agenda. When that driver fades, the dollar could regain ground—but no one knows when that could happen. The rate of net position growth or decline for the pound isn't particularly important on its own. Dollar positioning remains more impactful and is declining at a faster pace. GBP/USD 1H Analysis On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD is still forming a downward trend. This continues to contradict the overall market logic. The dollar still lacks strong fundamental support, so we continue to expect the bullish trend of 2025 to resume sooner or later. For now, traders should wait for a break above the trendline and ideally also the Kijun-sen line. For October 13, we identify the following key trading levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Ichimoku indicator lines—Senkou Span B (1.3424) and Kijun-sen (1.3374)—may also serve as signal levels. Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. Ichimoku lines can shift during the day and must be monitored when identifying signals. No significant economic events are scheduled for either the U.S. or the UK on Monday. As a result, flat price action and low volatility may dominate throughout the day. However, traders should not forget Trump's new tariffs, which markets might not have had time to fully price in on Friday. Trading RecommendationsToday, traders can operate from the 1.3369–1.3377 area and from the critical Ichimoku line. Rebounds from these levels would confirm that a correction is ongoing and present opportunities to open short positions targeting 1.3307. Long positions should only be considered above the Senkou Span B line, as the zone from 1.3369 to 1.3430 contains multiple layers of resistance. Explanation of Illustrations:Support and resistance price levels are shown as thick red lines. These lines mark areas where movement may stall. They are not trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B are Ichimoku indicator lines, transferred from the 4H chart to the 1H timeframe. These are considered strong lines.Extremum levels are thin red lines where price has previously reversed. These can generate trading signals.Yellow lines represent trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows net position sizes for each trader group.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5M Analysis On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair finally showed some growth. The ironic twist is that the only macroeconomic report of the day came from the U.S., and it turned out to be stronger than expected. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index exceeded traders' forecasts by 0.8 points, which could have strengthened the dollar. However, a market that had ignored negative U.S. data for two straight weeks also ignored this positive surprise. Throughout the past week, the market focused only on developments that supported the downward movement—but on Friday, that changed. Of course, Trump's evening speech also played a role. He announced new 100% tariffs on all imports from China. Trump was angered by Beijing's decision to tighten export restrictions on rare earth metals. He immediately accused China of being hostile and trying to hold the world hostage. The irony here is that it's Trump who is forcing his rules upon the world, while China continues trading with any nation willing to do business. On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed during the day. More precisely, no signal occurred during the entire session. Only at the very end of the day and week did the pair break through the 1.1604–1.1615 area, but by then, any trade entry was probably too late. It's also worth noting that on the hourly TF, the pair broke above the descending trend line, suggesting that the trend may be shifting toward the upside. COT Report The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report is dated September 23. As shown in the chart, the net position of non-commercial traders had been bullish for a long time. Bears briefly shifted into dominance at the end of 2024 but quickly lost control. Since Trump began his second term as U.S. president, only the dollar has been consistently falling. While we can't say with 100% certainty that the dollar's decline will continue, current global developments suggest that scenario. Fundamentally, we still see no major factors to support the euro's growth. However, we do see plenty of factors weighing down the dollar. The global downtrend for the euro remains intact, but at this point, past 17-year price tendencies are increasingly irrelevant to current market dynamics. Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may resume strengthening—but recent events show that the wars are far from over. The possible loss of Federal Reserve independence is another major bearish factor for the greenback. The red and blue lines on the indicator show that the bullish sentiment persists. During the latest reporting week, long positions held by the "Non-commercial" group declined by 800 contracts, while short positions increased by 2,600. Thus, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts over the week. EUR/USD 1H Analysis On the hourly time frame, EUR/USD may have completed its downtrend last week. The trendline was breached, so now the euro needs to consolidate above the Kijun-sen line to confirm further upward movement—at least toward the Senkou Span B line. We believe it is already high time for the euro to rise. And, according to Donald Trump, it seems he agrees, which is quite amusing. For October 13, we highlight the following key levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988; as well as the Ichimoku indicator lines: Senkou Span B (1.1733) and Kijun-sen (1.1657). Note: Ichimoku lines may shift positions during the day, and this must be taken into account when evaluating signals. Always remember to adjust the Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This ensures protection from false signals. For Monday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in either the U.S. or the Eurozone. Therefore, the market may see a classic "slow Monday." Trading RecommendationsOn Monday, traders may trade from the 1.1604–1.1615 and 1.1657–1.1666 areas, as well as from the critical Ichimoku lines. Since no significant events are scheduled, there's a high chance of low volatility and range-bound movement. However, the market may continue reacting to Trump's new tariffs, so the U.S. dollar remains at risk, and current price levels may be attractive for long positions. Explanation of Illustrations:Support and resistance price levels are shown as thick red lines. These lines mark areas where movement may stall. They are not trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B are Ichimoku indicator lines, transferred from the 4H chart to the 1H timeframe. These are considered strong lines.Extremum levels are thin red lines where price has previously reversed. These can generate trading signals.Yellow lines represent trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows net position sizes for each trader group.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Stock Market Meltdown Triggers Outside Week Key Reversals Stock market live While the average retail investor might view Friday’s (October 10, 2025) U.S. stock market selloff as a classic buy-the-dip opportunity, technical traders may see it very differently. The sharp drop to end the week created outside week key reversal patterns in major indices. A potentially important warning signal after months of relentless gains. What Is an Outside Week Key Reversal? An outside week key reversal is a classic technical analysis pattern that can mark the transition from an existing trend to a possible reversal. It forms when: The current week’s high exceeds the prior week’s high, and The low for the week falls below the prior week’s low, and The close finishes opposite the prior trend (for example, closing lower after an uptrend). This pattern often reflects a shift in market sentiment where traders who were previously driving the trend begin to take profits or reverse positions. Many veteran traders were taught that for a true outside week key reversal, the close must also fall below the prior week’s low (in a down reversal) or above the prior week’s high (in an up reversal), though that stricter definition is rarely found online today. Friday’s Stock Market Meltdown: More Than Just a Dip Friday’s plunge rattled both investors and traders who had grown comfortable with what looked like a one-way street higher. Despite repeated warnings of overvaluation and bubble risks, the abrupt decline was a stark reminder that markets can still surprise even the most seasoned bulls. The outside week key reversals in major U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) have technical analysts on alert for possible follow-through. US 500 WEEKLY CHART (blue line = 20 week moving averge_ NAS100 WEEKLY CHART (blue line = 20 week moving averge_ Stock market live However, these reversals require confirmation from other indicators before signaling a sustained change in trend. Without that confirmation, they may simply represent a healthy market correction or washout after a prolonged rally. Context Behind the Selloff: Trump’s Tariff Threat Friday’s drop wasn’t driven by economic data but rather by headlines. Markets sold off sharply after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on imports from China. Though no formal action was taken. By now, traders know the importance of distinguishing between what the President says and what he does. Still, the market’s reaction matters most. And in this case, it revealed how overcrowded bullish positioning had become. It took only a minor shock to tip the boat. Hooked on Headlines: Why Financial Markets Are Addicted to News Trump, in typical fashion, already backtracked over the weekend Technical Picture: Key Levels and What to Watch Despite the sharp declines, both US500 and NAS100 remain above their 20-week moving averages, which act as initial support zones and limit downside potential while prices stay above them. The outside week reversal pattern does suggest that recent record highs may stand for now, but it is too early to call an end to the mega uptrend without confirmation from momentum and volume indicators. In the near term, traders should watch: Reactions to fresh headlines — especially around tariffs and inflation data 4-hour and daily charts for signs of stabilization or continued weakness Stop levels: as Friday’s selloff cleared out buy stops near record highs and left sell stops below the day’s lows Many traders caught off guard by Friday’s price action are likely to place sell orders above the market, hoping to exit positions into any bounce. To sum up, the outside week key reversals on October 10, 2025, mark a potentially pivotal moment in the U.S. stock market’s technical landscape. While not definitive signals of a trend change, they do suggest increased caution is warranted after months of near-uninterrupted gains. Whether this becomes a lasting top or just another shakeout will depend on the market’s reaction in the coming days — especially around key support levels and headline-driven volatility. For now, the message from the charts is clear: complacency has been shaken, and risk awareness is back in play. Stock market live New York Stock Exchange The post Stock Market Meltdown Triggers Outside Week Key Reversals: What Technical Traders Are Watching Next appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.

Against the backdrop of a sparsely populated economic calendar, political and geopolitical developments in the United States, France, and China will take center stage for currency market traders. The upcoming week lacks major scheduled events for the EUR/USD pair—though with an important caveat: this only holds true if the U.S. government shutdown continues. If Congress reaches an agreement and approves the budget for the new fiscal year, government agencies will resume full operations. In that case, key macroeconomic data will start flowing rapidly. In particular, markets will receive the September Nonfarm Payrolls report and crucial inflation data from the U.S. (CPI and PPI indices). These releases are expected to generate significant volatility in EUR/USD, especially if the data points align (for example, showing signs of labor market cooling alongside stagnant or weakening inflation). If the shutdown continues for an extended period, traders will be forced to rely on secondary news drivers. Moreover, the market will continue tracking statements from Donald Trump and Chinese officials amid the sudden escalation of the U.S.–China trade war. Trump Tariffs and China's Response At the start of the new trading week, EUR/USD will move in continuation of Friday's momentum, when the U.S. dollar weakened across the board. The move came in response to Trump's announcement that starting November 1, the U.S. will impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. According to Trump, these tariffs will be "above and beyond any existing duties currently paid by China." Additionally, the U.S. plans to implement export controls on all critical software starting next month. It's important to note that the first escalatory move came from China, which announced tighter export controls on rare earth metals. Trump responded by drastically raising the stakes, with the 100% tariff effectively acting as a renewed embargo on Chinese imports. The U.S. president made this announcement just hours before markets closed on Friday. Despite the initial volatile response, likely, traders have not yet fully priced this development in. Moreover, China quickly issued a forceful response, accusing Washington of double standards and promising to take "appropriate measures to protect its interests." This implies that Beijing is not backing down—at least for now—placing the two superpowers on the brink of a renewed phase in their trade confrontation. Geopolitical Brinkmanship, But with a Delay However, despite the aggressive rhetoric, both sides have left a time buffer: the U.S. tariffs are scheduled to take effect on November 1, while China plans to implement its new restrictions starting December 1. This suggests that both economies are preparing for another round of negotiations, but are first establishing hardline positions. Whether and when talks may actually resume remains unclear, and EUR/USD traders are unlikely to make long-term assumptions. For now, market participants will focus on immediate headlines, which are not in favor of the U.S. dollar. French Political Dynamics Add Complexity The euro gained moderate support on Friday following Emmanuel Macron's reappointment of Sebastien Lecornu as Prime Minister of France. However, political stability in France remains fragile due to the absence of a pro-presidential majority in parliament. After his reappointment, Lecornu stated that he may once again resign if "the working conditions are not adequate," referring specifically to the need for legislative support—especially for budget proposals. If this support fails to materialize, the French president could dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections. Such a move would likely apply downward pressure on the euro, as the newly elected parliament would likely have a pronounced right-wing tilt. Markets Eye Secondary Data and Political Risk Due to the light economic calendar, political and geopolitical developments (such as the shutdown, France, and the U.S.–China trade war) will be the primary focus for EUR/USD traders. Upcoming Economic Releases That May Move EUR/USD On Tuesday, the ZEW indices will be released. Positive results are expected, with the German Economic Sentiment Index projected to rise to 41.7 (after increasing to 37.3 in September). The broader Eurozone ZEW index is also set to increase to 30.2 (from 26.1 in the previous month).On Wednesday, China will publish key inflation data. If the CPI reading surprises to the upside (exceeding the forecast of -0.2%), it could have a secondary impact on EUR/USD.During Wednesday's U.S. session, the Empire Manufacturing Index will be released. After plunging to -8.7 in September, a slight rebound to +0.2 is expected.If the government shutdown ends before Wednesday—which remains unlikely—then major U.S. inflation metrics (CPI) may also be released that day. However, political deadlock between Republicans and Democrats continues to make this scenario improbable. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be published. After surging to 23.2 in September, it is expected to decline to 9.1 this month. For bullish dollar sentiment to recover, this figure must not fall back into negative territory.If the shutdown ends, the Producer Price Index may also be released on Thursday.On Friday, the final inflation data for the Eurozone (September) is scheduled for publication. This data is expected to match the previously released preliminary estimate and is the only significant figure from the Eurozone for the day unless the U.S. government resumes operations.If the shutdown ends, the long-awaited Nonfarm Payrolls data from September will also be released on Friday, further amplifying volatility. Technically: EUR/USD Key Resistance and Bullish Confirmation Long positions on EUR/USD should be considered only after a confirmed breakout above the resistance level of 1.1630 (Kijun-sen line on H4 chart). The first upside target in this case would be 1.1680 (the upper Bollinger Bands boundary on H4). A successful move beyond this area would open the path toward the 1.1700 zone. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

When discussing the U.S. news landscape in mid-October 2025, it is more appropriate to list which reports will NOT be published this week — and there will be many. For example, it is unlikely that market participants will see any retail sales data or industrial production figures. The Consumer Price Index is also very likely to go unpublished. So what remains? Only a speech by Jerome Powell. He could have provided the market with guidance last week on how the Federal Reserve plans to proceed at the end of the month, but opted not to do so. It's important to remember that the FOMC Chair has historically been very cautious in his public statements. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days. Therefore, there is still a good chance that the government will be operational again before October 29, when the Fed holds its next policy meeting. Thus, there is little point in speculating on what data the FOMC will review or how it will act — the market has to wait. After all, no one can demand concrete answers from Powell ahead of the meeting. Consequently, I think Powell will probably not provide anything significant to the markets in the upcoming week as well. So it appears that the leading newsmaker of the forthcoming week will once again be Donald Trump. On Friday, the U.S. president announced additional tariffs against China in response to China's restrictions on the export of rare-earth metals — resources the U.S. critically depends on. China aims to respond to Trump in kind, but the U.S. president still has many cards up his sleeve. It looks like the U.S.-China trade war is entering a new phase of escalation. In any case, both Trump and Xi Jinping can be expected to make further announcements that will impact the market. At this point, I can say that renewed escalation in the trade war suggests that demand for the U.S. dollar will continue to decline. Even over the past two weeks, there was ample reason for the market to sell the dollar: labor market and business activity data in the U.S. remained weak, and a government shutdown is not a routine event without economic consequences. Now, a fresh deterioration in U.S.-China relations gets added to the "October list of reasons" to weaken the greenback. Wave Structure for EUR/USD:According to the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to form an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background, particularly the decisions made by Trump, as well as the domestic and foreign policy of the new White House administration. The targets of the current segment of the trend could reach the 1.2500 range. At present, a complex corrective wave 4 is forming and approaching completion. The bullish wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I continue to consider only long positions. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to the level of 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Structure for GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave formation is becoming more complex. Wave 4 is taking the form of a complicated three-wave correction, and its length is significantly greater than that of wave 2. As we are currently observing the formation of a presumed wave within another corrective three-wave pattern, it may soon be completed. If this is confirmed, the upward movement of the instrument within the global wave framework could resume, with initial targets around the 1.3800 and 1.4000 levels.. Core Principles of My Analysis:1.Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are prone to change. 2.If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better not to enter the market. 3.One can never have complete certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders. 4.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com