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Bitcoin (BTC) is once again testing critical support above $111,000, with traders debating whether the recent pullback marks the start of a deeper correction or a healthy consolidation before the next leg higher. After touching an all-time high above $126,000, the world’s largest crypto asset has shed nearly 9% on the weekly charts, reflecting waning momentum amid broader market uncertainty and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions. Bitcoin Tests Key Support as Momentum Fades Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $111,300, down roughly 1% in 24 hours, after briefly dipping to an intraday low of $110,292. Technical indicators show the asset under pressure, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages turning lower and a bearish crossover emerging on the MACD. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to the mid-40s, signaling cooling buying strength and the potential for further downside if support fails. Analysts are eyeing $107,000–$110,000 as the crucial short-term demand zone. A decisive break below this area could open the path toward $100,000, while a bounce above $115,000–$123,000 would be needed to restore bullish sentiment. “Bitcoin’s structure suggests fatigue at the top, with a potential double-top formation visible around $126,000,” one market analyst noted. “A weekly close below $110K would likely trigger broader profit-taking.” Whales Turn Cautious, Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slow On-chain data indicates that BTC whales have increased short exposure, signaling caution among large holders. This aligns with reports of falling ETF inflows, which declined by over $223 million this week after surging more than $2.7 billion the week before. Analysts suggest this cooldown reflects a pause in institutional demand following months of aggressive accumulation. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching macro developments, as gold’s rally to a record $4,200 has drawn some capital away from Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. Weak U.S. data and tariff-related volatility have added pressure, pushing some investors back toward traditional safe havens. Analysts Warn of Rising Wedge Breakdown Technically, Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a rising wedge pattern, often a bearish setup. If BTC closes the week below $110,000, the structure projects a potential downside target around $74,000, representing a 34% correction. However, long-term metrics such as hash rate and network activity remain strong, suggesting that any deep retracement could offer a buying opportunity for patient investors. For now, Bitcoin’s next move hinges on whether bulls can defend the $110K floor. A strong rebound from here could set the stage for another attempt toward $126K, but failure to hold support risks ushering in a much sharper correction before the next major rally begins. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart on Tradingview

EUR/USD The euro is rising for the fourth consecutive day. The gap at 1.1741 is close to being filled, and slightly above it lies the key target level at 1.1779. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line is breaking into the territory of an uptrend. The current outlook appears optimistic, but correlated markets are signaling a possible reversal: yesterday, the S&P 500 declined by 0.63%, oil dropped by 1.48%, and the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasuries fell from 3.61% to 3.53%. If this trend continues, even at a slower pace, the euro is unlikely to reach 1.1908 (the upper boundary of the price channel). Today, eurozone inflation data for September will be released. The forecast for the CPI is an increase from 2.0% y/y to 2.2% y/y. If this forecast proves accurate, the euro could reach the 1.1779 target within two to three days. However, if the price falls back below the MACD line (1.1660), the euro might become stuck in a sideways range—similar to the pattern observed in August ahead of the September Fed meeting. Now, markets look ahead to the next Federal Reserve meeting, which is just over a week away. On the four-hour chart, the price continues rising above the indicator lines. The MACD line is beginning to curve upward, while the Marlin oscillator shows a downward bias. These mixed signals—especially on a Friday and on the day of a major CPI release—create ideal conditions for closing long positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Silver On the monthly chart, two hyperchannel price lines converge at a single point—at the psychological level of 56.000. This convergence is expected to occur either in the final days of October (possibly coinciding with the next Federal Reserve meeting) or in the first days of November. At this price level, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will reach the Fibonacci reaction level of 361.8%. After attaining the projected target, a correction is likely, with a pullback toward the nearest line of the green channel in the 43.545 area. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has twice attempted to break above the upper boundary of its own channel. A similar failed attempt in the near future may trigger a stronger decline in price. On the four-hour chart, the price and oscillator have formed a divergence. Although this divergence is not entirely clean, there is a high probability that it will morph into a broad consolidation range. A firm close below the MACD line—below the 52.052 level—will constitute the first clear signal of a deeper price correction. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD On Thursday, the British pound gained over 30 pips on a rebound from the MACD line support. This morning, the pound remains in a positive mood; however, the Marlin oscillator is now approaching the zero line. If no profit-taking occurs today, the pound has every chance to continue its advance toward the 1.3525 target. If the day ends with a bearish (black) candle, the technical picture may become muddled within the psychological cycle of market anticipation ahead of the Fed meeting on October 29. It is also worth noting that the support level of 1.3369 and the MACD line at 1.3393 currently form a support range of 24 pips. Breaking below this zone will be difficult, which means that market participants are likely to seek buying opportunities—perhaps after today's consolidation, or early next week on Monday. On the four-hour chart, the price is consolidating within a narrow range established in late September. The Marlin oscillator is slightly declining, supporting this sideways movement. We expect a continuation of the current flat phase, which could later lead to another upward leg. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum price struggled to stay above $4,020 and dipped further. ETH is now consolidating in a range and might decline further if there is a move below $3,820. Ethereum started a fresh decline below $4,020 and $4,000. The price is trading below $4,000 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,070 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it trades below $3,820. Ethereum Price Dips Below Support Ethereum price struggled to settle above $4,120 and corrected most gains, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below the $4,020 and $4,000 levels. It even tested the $3,820 zone. A low was formed at $3,828 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,215 swing high to the $3,828 low. Ethereum price is now trading below $4,000 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,070 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $3,950 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,020 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,215 swing high to the $3,828 low. The first major resistance is near the $4,070 level and the trend line. A clear move above the $4,070 resistance might send the price toward the $4,120 resistance. An upside break above the $4,120 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,220 resistance zone or even $4,250 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,020 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,880 level. The first major support sits near the $3,820 zone. A clear move below the $3,820 support might push the price toward the $3,740 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,650 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,550. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $3,820 Major Resistance Level – $4,070

Solana is taking a breather after a strong rally, now testing the crucial $195 support zone. Traders are watching closely to see if the bulls can defend this level and set the stage for a potential comeback. Solana Begins A Healthy Pullback After Recent Rally In a recent update, BitGuru highlighted that Solana (SOL) appears to be entering a healthy pullback phase following a sharp rally and partial recovery. This retracement is part of a natural market rhythm, allowing the asset to cool off after its recent burst of bullish momentum. Such pauses often serve as a foundation for more sustainable future growth, rather than signaling weakness. While SOL’s price is hovering around the $203 mark, it is also facing strong resistance near $210. The market structure remains constructive, with buyers still active, though slightly cautious after the recent volatility. Should bulls manage to hold their ground and push through $210, BitGuru suggested that Solana could target the $225–$230 region in the short term. Conversely, if the price fails to clear resistance and loses support, a brief consolidation between $190 and $210 could follow. Short-Term Bearish Momentum Takes Hold Below Key Averages In a recent post, crypto analyst BeLaunch shared insights on Solana’s current price action, noting that the asset is showing signs of a short-term pullback following its strong rally. At the time of analysis, SOL’s price was trading around $199.45, marking a 1.84% gain, though still below its daily high of $208.91. The move reflects a mild cooling period after an upward surge. From a technical perspective, the price of Solana has dipped below key moving averages, indicating a shift toward short-term bearish momentum. The asset is currently testing a key support zone near $195.53. However, BeLaunch observed that the recent decline came on lower trading volume, suggesting that selling pressure might be easing rather than intensifying. According to the analyst, Solana’s structure points to a phase of consolidation rather than a full reversal. The price action appears to be forming a base after its breakout run, giving the market room to breathe before its next move. BeLaunch concluded that a sustained hold above $195 could trigger a rebound, potentially setting the stage for Solana to retest higher resistance levels near $210 and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below this level could lead to a deeper retracement. However, in the broader outlook, the current weakness may represent a healthy reset within a larger bullish structure rather than a bearish trend reversal.

Bitcoin price is struggling to settle above $112,500 and $113,000. BTC is now moving lower and might start another decline below $108,000. Bitcoin started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the $113,000 resistance level. The price is trading below $110,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $110,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $107,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to surpass the $113,000 resistance level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below the $112,000 and $110,500 support levels to enter a bearish zone. The price even dipped below $108,000. A low was formed at $107,483 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $115,975 swing high to the $107,483 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $110,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $110,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $109,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $110,000 level. The next resistance could be $110,500 and the trend line. A close above the $110,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $111,800 resistance since it is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $115,975 swing high to the $107,483 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $112,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $113,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $110,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $108,000 level. The first major support is near the $107,500 level. The next support is now near the $106,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $105,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $108,000, followed by $107,500. Major Resistance Levels – $110,000 and $110,500.

On-chain data shows key investors on the Bitcoin network have collectively participated in some selling recently, a potential reason behind the asset’s decline. Bitcoin Sharks & Whales Have Done Some Net Distribution According to data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment, Bitcoin’s key investor tier is starting to show signs of slight profit-taking. The indicator of interest here is the “Supply Distribution,” which measures the total amount of the supply that investors belonging to a particular wallet segment are currently holding. Addresses or holders are divided into these groups based on the number of tokens present in their balance. The 1 to 10 coins cohort, for instance, includes all investors owning between 1 and 10 BTC. In the context of the current discussion, a broad range of 10 to 10,000 coins is of focus. It converts to $1.1 million at the lower end and $1.1 billion at the upper end. Given this scale, the range would naturally cover some of the key Bitcoin investor cohorts like the sharks and whales. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Supply Distribution for the range over the last few months. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin supply held by the 10 to 10,000 coins group saw a drop of 17,554 BTC (about $1.9 billion) between October 12th and 14th. Before this decline, the metric had been in an uptrend since late August. The cryptocurrency’s recovery attempt has fizzled out since this selloff occurred, so it would appear possible that the profit-taking from the sharks and whales could, in part, be behind the bearish action. On a more long-term scale, though, this latest distribution spree from the key investors isn’t too significant, as their wallets have still grown since the start of 2025 by 318,610 BTC, worth a whopping $35.5 billion. A similar light profit-taking event took place in late August, following which the sharks and whales quickly corrected course and resumed accumulation. This buying then supported BTC’s bullish push. Wallet balance is just one way to classify holders. Another popular methodology in on-chain analysis is using holding time to separate investors between short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). The cutoff between the two cohorts is 155 days. The STHs may be considered to represent the fickle-minded side of the market, while the LTHs are resolute diamond hands. These HODLers have been selling recently, however, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has shared in an X post. A net 265,715 BTC has exited the wallets of the Bitcoin LTHs over the past 30 days, which is the largest monthly outflow since early January. BTC Price Bitcoin has been unable to keep any recovery run going as its price is still trading around $111,000.

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, as expected. At this point, discussing the fundamentals or macroeconomics doesn't hold much weight. First, the GBP/USD pair remains within a sideways channel on the daily timeframe. This means price can move hundreds of points in either direction without any specific catalyst, which is precisely what we've seen in recent weeks. Second, there's nothing new or positive happening globally for the U.S. dollar. Trump continues to issue threats, start conflicts, impose tariffs and sanctions, and try to force his views on the entire world. Third, the longer-term upward trend remains in place, and there are no credible reasons for dollar strength at this time. As a result, while the pair may stay in a range for one, two, or even three more months, it still appears the bullish trend will resume—regardless of the surrounding circumstances. This week, the British currency started to rise despite mixed economic data out of the U.K. On one hand, the unemployment rate increased; on the other, GDP and industrial production data came in better than expected. Interestingly, the higher unemployment figure didn't prevent sterling from strengthening, and the market largely ignored the positive GDP and industrial figures. Once again, it's clear that traders pay little attention to British data. Instead, they care about U.S. fundamentals. Listing every reason why the dollar should fall could fill an entire article. Today—the final trading day of the week—there are no major reports or events scheduled in either the U.K. or the U.S. Of course, Donald Trump or his close ally Scott Bessent could deliver new explosive statements targeting China, India, or the Federal Reserve. But the thing is, an "explosive" event loses its impact when it happens every day. Imagine the market being told that Trump wants to raise tariffs on China not by 500%, but 1,500%. What would change? Nothing positive for the dollar—just more decline along the same uninterrupted path. To highlight another issue, Trump demonstrates a lack of political diplomacy in his standoff with the Democrats. The budget standoff is arguably the first time in 2025 that Democrats have managed to block one of his initiatives. Usually, Trump made decisions unilaterally without congressional oversight. It's striking that lawsuits are being filed against Trump for violating U.S. laws and overstepping his authority, yet no single controversial decision has been overturned. In just a year, the U.S. has transformed from a democratic nation governed by law into a "one-man state." Today, Trump loses a round of golf; tomorrow, he imposes 500% tariffs. Today, Trump doesn't win a Nobel Prize; tomorrow, India is blamed for buying oil at a good price. It's a circus. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 84 pips, which is considered "average" for the pound/dollar. For Friday, October 17, we expect movement within the range of 1.3344 to 1.3512. The long-term linear regression channel is pointed upward, confirming the prevailing upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone three times recently, which may signal a resumption of upward momentum. Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.3428 S2 – 1.3367 S3 – 1.3306 Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.3489 R2 – 1.3550 R3 – 1.3611 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is currently in a corrective move, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to apply pressure to the dollar, so we do not expect any meaningful gains from the U.S. currency. Thus, long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain more relevant as long as the price remains above the moving average. If the pair drops below the moving average line, small short positions become possible with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3245, based purely on technical analysis. From time to time, the dollar stages short-term corrections (as it's doing now), but a sustained bullish movement will require real signs that the trade war is ending—or other major positive catalysts. Explanation of Illustrations:Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings: 20.0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and a suitable trade direction.Murray levels are calculated target zones for price movement and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the expected price range for the next 24 hours based on current volatility metrics.The CCI indicator: entering the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) suggests a trend reversal may be imminent.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair continued a moderate upward movement on Wednesday, as expected. Let us recall that the recent decline in the pair over the past few weeks seemed illogical, as the fundamental and macroeconomic background for the U.S. dollar has only worsened during this period. Of course, we're not suggesting everything is going perfectly in Europe or the U.K., but in 2025, the United States has been setting records for the number of negative developments. As such, even the dollar's recent strengthening defied the underlying fundamentals. On the daily timeframe, two clear things stand out: first, the upward trend is intact; second, the market has been in a sideways range for months. Thus, the euro's decline could be attributed purely to technical factors, rather than political turmoil in France. If this is the case, then the 2025 bullish trend should eventually resume—and why not now? Especially when Trump continues to generate headlines that do little to support the dollar. Just this week, Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on China, claimed India promised to stop buying Russian oil (after previously raising tariffs on India to 50%), threatened to cut all ties with China, and finally stated he's ready to raise tariffs to 500%. With such a barrage of geopolitical tension coming from Washington, can the dollar realistically expect to rally? The U.S.–China conflict will only deepen, as Trump tries to force a major global player to yield to his framework. That might work with smaller states anxious to avoid confrontation, but China is built differently. Beijing responds in kind: it raises tariffs, limits exports of rare-earth elements, demands that they cease oil purchases from certain countries, and ignores the requests. In fact, just yesterday, New Delhi made clear that it gave Trump no such promise regarding Russian oil. Once again, the U.S. president has misled a great many people and media outlets. In short, the American "farce" continues to escalate. China has responded to Trump in a tit-for-tat manner and will continue to do so. The dollar will likely continue to decline because traders no longer see a compelling reason to trust what was once the bedrock of global finance. It's worth noting that the U.S. dollar has been unusually lucky in recent months—based on current fundamental conditions, it should have declined without interruption. However, that's not how the currency market operates. Market makers need time to build new large positions before they drive the market higher again—and that takes time. We believe further dollar depreciation is only a matter of time. The average EUR/USD volatility over the last five trading days as of October 17 is 61 pips, which qualifies as "average." On Friday, we expect the pair to move within the range bounded by 1.1609 and 1.1731. The long-term linear regression channel remains upward-sloping, indicating a continuing bullish trend. The CCI indicator recently entered the oversold zone, which may trigger the next upward price leg. Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.1597 S2 – 1.1536 S3 – 1.1414 Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.1658 R2 – 1.1719 R3 – 1.1780 Trading Recommendations:The EUR/USD pair remains in a corrective phase, yet the overall uptrend persists—visible across all higher timeframes. The U.S. dollar is still under strong pressure from Donald Trump's aggressive political and economic policies, which show no sign of scaling back. While the dollar has risen in recent days, the fundamental case for that move is questionable. Nonetheless, the sideways range on the daily chart explains the current lack of consistent direction. If the price is below the moving average, small short positions may be considered with a target of 1.1536, based purely on technical factors. If the price remains above the moving average line, long positions toward 1.1841 and 1.1902 remain valid as part of the larger bullish trend. Explanation of Illustrations:Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings: 20.0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and a suitable trade direction.Murray levels are calculated target zones for price movement and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the expected price range for the next 24 hours based on current volatility metrics.The CCI indicator: entering the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) suggests a trend reversal may be imminent.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair also showed limited volatility on Thursday, though it continued to edge higher—slowly but steadily. Clearly, the British pound and market bulls still have energy to spare. Over recent weeks, buyers have been largely inactive despite having solid reasons to support the pound at least occasionally. Across the Atlantic, news from the U.S. continues to disappoint. Meanwhile, the U.K. has released a batch of macroeconomic data this week, some of which could have justified a GBP sell-off. From our perspective, the fact that the pound continued rising despite mediocre reports is a strong signal. From a technical standpoint, the situation is straightforward. The price has broken through the descending trendline and both lines of the Ichimoku indicator. It has all the technical, macroeconomic, and fundamental reasons to strengthen. The upward trend on the daily timeframe also remains intact. Of course, a correction or sideways movement may prolong the consolidation, but in our view, the dollar's fate is already sealed. The British economy hasn't been particularly impressive, but the Bank of England is unlikely to pursue further monetary easing. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy poses far more concerns than the U.K.'s. On the 5-minute timeframe, price action mostly ranged sideways throughout the day. The price bounced four or five times from the 1.3402–1.3420 area but was unable to build significant upward momentum. Nonetheless, the uptrend above the Ichimoku cloud remains intact. Friday could be a dull day with volatility levels similar to Thursday. COT Report Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for the British pound show that market sentiment among commercial traders has been fluctuating for years. The red and blue lines indicating net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders cross frequently and tend to hover around zero. This currently reflects a nearly even split in buy and sell positions. The dollar continues to decline due to Trump administration policies, so at this stage, market maker demand for the pound is less relevant. The trade war is likely to persist in one form or another for a long time. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates over the next year. Therefore, demand for the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken regardless. According to the latest report on GBP, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 new long (BUY) contracts and closed 900 short (SELL) contracts. As a result, the net long position increased by 4,600 contracts over the week. In 2025, the pound has already grown substantially. The reason is singular—Trump's policy. Once this factor is neutralized, the dollar may begin to recover, but when that will happen remains unknown. Whether the pound's net position is rising or falling matters relatively little now. The U.S. dollar's net position continues to decline—usually at a faster pace. GBP/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD has finally ended its downtrend and begun to rally. The U.S. dollar still lacks any significant justification for strengthening, so we expect the pair to revisit its 2025 highs—barring an extended range-bound phase on the daily chart. However, given the ongoing tensions over Trump's escalating trade war and the Fed's shift toward monetary easing, the pressure on the dollar remains high—a volatile mix of bearish signals. For October 17, we highlight the following key trading levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Ichimoku indicator's Senkou Span B (1.3393) and Kijun-sen (1.3350) lines may also serve as signal levels. A Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven after 20 pips in profit to limit risk in case of a false signal. Note that Ichimoku lines may shift throughout the trading day and should be reevaluated as necessary. No major events are scheduled on Friday in either the U.K. or U.S., meaning another low-volatility session may be ahead. Trading Recommendations: For Friday, traders may consider trading from the 1.3420 level or from the Senkou Span B line. While key levels abound, market-moving news remains scarce. The British pound has begun a clear upward move, so we expect this short-term trend to continue—but flat conditions are possible today. Chart Illustration Key: Thick red lines represent key support/resistance price levels. These are reference levels where movement may pause or reverse. They do not generate signals themselves.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the H4 timeframe to the H1 chart. These are strong support/resistance lines.Thin red lines mark price extremes, from where price has previously rebounded. These serve as signal levels.Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.The COT Indicator 1 on the reports shows the net position size of each trader category.Always place Stop Loss orders once the price moves 15 pips in the expected direction to lock in profits or limit losses in case the signal proves false. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a volatility of about 40 pips. There were no movements throughout the day, offering nothing to trade. There were also no significant events in either the Eurozone or the U.S. As for Christine Lagarde's speeches, they no longer qualify as market-moving events. Over the last three weeks, Lagarde has spoken around ten times. Her message has been consistent: the European Central Bank sees no reason to change its monetary policy in the near future. Accordingly, traders had no reason to react, and no new impulses appeared. Still, the pair maintained its newly formed upward trend, did not retreat, and broke through the Senkou Span B line, which is a key technical milestone. Technical analysis continues to suggest further growth in the euro. First, an upward trend remains in place on the daily timeframe. Second, the descending trendline and Ichimoku indicator levels on the hourly chart have been broken. This creates grounds to expect continued euro strength. Besides technicals, macroeconomic and fundamental factors also support further EUR appreciation. At the moment, we can't identify any meaningful reasons for dollar strength. On the 5-minute timeframe, yesterday's trade signals were underwhelming. As we've mentioned before, if the market is not moving, there's no point in relying on signals, levels, or indicators—there won't be profits. Yesterday exemplified that perfectly. The price spent the entire day hovering between 1.1657 and 1.1666, only managing to settle above that range later in the evening. However, the euro still failed to push higher even after that. COT Report The latest COT (Commitment of Traders) report is dated September 23. The chart clearly shows that net positioning from non-commercial traders has been bullish for an extended period. Bears briefly took control at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, the dollar has consistently declined. While we cannot say with 100% certainty that the fall will continue, current global developments strongly suggest this possibility. We still do not observe any compelling fundamental drivers for a stronger euro, but there is no shortage of bearish factors weighing down the U.S. dollar. The global downturn for the dollar remains intact, and historical price action from the past 17 years seems irrelevant now. Unless Trump ultimately ends his trade wars, it's unlikely the dollar will stage a sustainable recovery. Potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is another decisive negative factor for the greenback. The red and blue COT indicator lines suggest that the bullish trend remains in place. During the latest reporting week, the number of long positions held by the "non-commercial" group declined by 800 contracts, while short positions rose by 2,600 contracts. As a result, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts. EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair likely ended its downward trend last week. The downtrend line has been broken. The Kijun-sen line has been surpassed. The 1.1604–1.1615 and 1.1657–1.1666 zones have both been breached. The Senkou Span B line has also been broken. At this point, only continued upward movement is expected. We believe the euro should already be moving higher, but market participants are still hesitant to commit to long positions—even though the conditions are fully supportive of such a move. For October 17, we define the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, and 1.1971–1.1988, along with Senkou Span B (1.1661) and Kijun-sen (1.1609) lines. Note: Ichimoku lines may shift throughout the day and should be accounted for when determining signal strength. No significant events or reports are scheduled on Friday for the Eurozone or U.S., meaning traders may again face a market devoid of triggers, with low volatility likely to persist. Trading Recommendations: On Friday, traders can continue to trade from the 1.1657–1.1666 zone. A bounce from the top of this area will validate long positions targeting 1.1750–1.1760. A confirmed breakdown below this zone will allow for short trades with a target of 1.1615. Chart Illustration Key:Thick red lines represent key support/resistance price levels. These are reference levels where movement may pause or reverse. They do not generate signals themselves.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the H4 timeframe to the H1 chart. These are strong support/resistance lines.Thin red lines mark price extremes, from where price has previously rebounded. These serve as signal levels.Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.The COT Indicator 1 on the reports shows the net position size of each trader category.Always place Stop Loss orders once the price moves 15 pips in the expected direction to lock in profits or limit losses in case the signal proves false. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP is facing renewed pressure this week after the Oct. 10 flash crash triggered record liquidations across the crypto market. The token plunged nearly 40% intraday before rebounding, now hovering between $2.20 and $2.60 as traders assess what’s next. Despite heavy whale selling and lingering volatility, market analysts insist that “this week could change everything” for XRP, with key ETF decisions and regulatory milestones approaching that could redefine its long-term outlook. Flash-Crash Fallout: Liquidations, Whale Flows, and Key Support XRP was swept up in the Oct. 10 crypto “flash crash,” sliding intraday by 40% before rebounding to a monthly loss near 20%. The trigger wasn’t a protocol flaw but a leverage washout tied to tariff headlines that jolted risk assets. Heavy forced deleveraging slammed both CEX and DEX liquidity, pulling most majors sharply lower in minutes. Since then, XRP has steadied in the $2.20–$2.60 band, with the 200-day EMA near $2.62 now a pivotal pivot. On-chain flows show mixed positioning as large holders sent sizable tranches to exchanges during the drop (a classic profit-taking/hedge tell), yet the torrent slowed after Oct. 11, helping price stabilize. Technically, bulls need a daily close back above $2.80–$3.00 to neutralize the short-term downtrend; lose $2.20, and the next magnet sits near $1.80. Notably, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin held its peg through the chaos, an institutional-friendly datapoint that underscores XRPL’s operational resilience under stress. Derivatives Heat Up as XRP ETF Window Nears Currently, futures open interest eased, but options activity surged triple-digits, signaling traders are bracing for larger moves. Long/short ratios remain skewed long on major venues, fertile ground for volatility if support cracks. That backdrop meets a dense ETF decision window (Oct. 18–25) for issuers including Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and CoinShares. Pundits point out that the SEC’s shortened 75-day review is a sign of an accelerated process, even as macro cross-currents (tariffs, growth jitters) complicate risk appetite. Legal clarity also looms large as courts have affirmed XRP isn’t a security on secondary markets, removing a structural overhang that kept many institutions sidelined last cycle. What Would Flip the Trend With the XRP price below the 20/50/100-day EMAs and the Supertrend still bearish, momentum remains fragile. Bulls need: Price confirmation: Reclaim $2.80–$3.00 with rising spot volume to target $3.50–$3.80. Flows confirmation: Net ETF inflows and calming options skew to validate dip-buying. Macro calm: Softer tariff rhetoric and benign data to reopen risk windows. These absent, a break below $2.20 risks a deeper corrective leg toward $1.80, with tail-risk bears eyeing $0.75 in a severe macro shock. Nonetheless, the institutional narrative is intact as RLUSD’s stability, CBDC/RWA conversations tied to XRPL, and a maturing compliance toolset all support longer-term adoption. That’s why some analysts insist “this week changes everything”, if regulatory catalysts align, XRP’s next leg higher could begin. Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD on Tradingview

The 200-week moving average is one of the most critical macro indicators for Bitcoin, serving as the definitive divide between bear market capitulation and long-term accumulation. While BTC’s price movements are notorious for their sudden, dramatic swings, history shows that the 200 WMA technical indicator has stood out with remarkable consistency. How The 200 WMA Has Defined Every Bitcoin Cycle Luke Broyles, an observer of Bitcoin’s market cycles, has noted on X that BTC has been screaming buy all 5 times that it hit the 200 WMA. This track record leads many to ask if they should hold a lump sum on the sidelines until that hits. Broyles acknowledges that while BTC has been trending down, that hasn’t been the worst idea in the world. Although it isn’t a magic bullet. As Broyles explains, 3 out of the 5 times it has hit the 200 WMA, it was there for mere days. The worst part is that when BTC trends upward, the 200 WMA rises with it, making the ideal entry a constantly moving target. However, Broyles provided a vivid example from recent history. In April 2023, BTC was $31,000, and the 200 WMA was $25,000. Before that, BTC was $16,000 months ago, and many thought a pullback into the $20,000 range was likely. Meanwhile, the analyst advocates for a buy at 31,000. During that time, 200 WMA was so close, and they cared more about bragging rights of I bought at the 200 WMA instead of simply accumulating BTC. By the time BTC briefly dipped below the line again, it was already at $28,000, and that was the last chance. Currently, the 200 WMA sits comfortably above $50,000, and if BTC’s uptrend continues, that line could climb to $70,000 or even $100,000 before price ever revisits it. Why Bitcoin Remains Bullish On Higher Timeframes An analyst known as Scient has emphasized that BTC is on the higher timeframes. The blue zone remains a must-hold area for bullish continuation, with price consolidating above $108,000 for nearly three months. This range could be setting up a clean flip of that level into support before a major expansion phase. Furthermore, all liquidity below the range lows (RLs) has been swept. The recent drop followed a higher high (HH) on the 3-day chart, and now BTC sits right at the RLs, an ideal zone where a higher low (HL) could confirm a continuation pattern. Scient pointed out that it’s the candle body that matters for divergence, the wicks don’t count. He’s watching closely for hidden bullish divergences to develop on the 3D timeframe, which would confirm the bullish setup. According to the analyst, this week looks relatively slow, but the next volatile move will likely come next week.

The cryptocurrency market extended its slide on Thursday, with Bitcoin price briefly falling under $110,000 before regaining some ground. CoinGecko data showed that the Bitcoin price dropped to $107,500 from $110,400, representing a decline of 3% in the past 24 hours. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Most major altcoins followed the same path. Nine of the top ten non-stablecoin assets traded lower, losing between -0.9% to -5.3%. The drop came after a surge in Bitcoin transfers from miners to exchanges, hinting at mounting selling pressure. Just a few weeks earlier, miners were adding to their Bitcoin holdings despite higher costs and tighter margins. That trend reversed as falling transaction fees cut into revenue, worsened by April’s halving and higher network difficulty. Will Q4 2025 Bring Another Wave of Volatility for Bitcoin Traders? The Bitcoin price extended its weekly decline, trading near $107,500 after falling approximately 10.8% over the past seven days. Similar sell-offs have marked late stages of previous market cycles, often reflecting caution among investors. Data from Farside shows that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen outflows of more than $108M since the start of the week, adding to the market’s selling pressure. According to Derbit data, options traders have placed over $1.7Bn in bets that the Bitcoin price will rise above $130,000 before year-end. Polymarket data suggests that participants assign better than a 50% chance to that scenario in 2025. (Source: Polymarket) Analysts at CryptoQuant called the recent $19Bn drawdown a “leverage flush,” suggesting it’s a market reset rather than the start of a long decline. The two trends show similar behavior. In 2020, Bitcoin’s steep drop was followed by a fast rebound and a long rally to new highs. The 2025 chart is tracing the same pattern: a deep sell-off, then a base forming near the lows. (Source: X) The existing candles are indicative of capitulation. The long wicks recorded and the heavy sell volume are indications that panic selling may be nearing its end, and this is typically a sign of the bottom. At the time of his analysis, the Bitcoin price traded at nearly $110,000, which may form a double-bottom pattern, similar to that of March 2020. The symmetry of the chart suggests that market fear can be at its peak, and this can be the start of a recovery as soon as the selling pressure subsides. According to Glassnode data, the small Bitcoin holders continue to accumulate their holdings. The charts show that the accumulation of wallets containing 1 to 1,000 BTC has been increasing since the end of September. (Source: X) In the meantime, large holders who own over 10,000 BTC have either reduced their purchases or slightly decreased their holdings, indicating that central accumulation has ceased. This move indicates a newfound confidence of the retail and mid-size investors as Bitcoin trades at $110,000-$115,000. Historically, it has been commonly observed that this type of accumulation by smaller holders precedes recoveries that occur in the wake of widespread market corrections. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 The post Will Bitcoin Recover After $5.6Bn Miner Sell-Off? Analysts Weigh In on $110K Support and 2020-Style Bottom appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Critical Metals Corp. (Nasdaq: CRML) announced Thursday that it has entered into a securities purchase agreement with an un-named institutional investor to raise $50 million gross proceeds via a private investment in public equity (PIPE) transaction. Under the terms, CRML is issuing, for an aggregate purchase price of $50 million, an aggregate of 1.47 million ordinary shares and pre-funded warrants to purchase an aggregate of approximately 1.56 million shares. The company said it intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to help fund the development of its 4.7 billion metric ton rare earth deposit, Tanbreez, in Greenland. The Tanbreez project in Greenland is one of the world’s largest heavy and medium rare earth deposits. The New York-based company also owns the Wolfsberg lithium project in Austria, which it describes as Europe’s first fully permitted lithium mine. Last week, Critical Metals signed a letter of intent with US-based rare earth processor REalloys for a ten-year offtake agreement covering 15% of production from Tanbreez. That deal followed an August agreement with Ucore Rare Metals for 10% of Tanbreez’s output, bringing its total committed offtake to 25% of expected production. “This financing further strengthens our balance sheet and demonstrates continued investor confidence in Critical Metals Corp as we advance our strategic portfolio of critical mineral assets,” CEO Tony Sage said in a news release. “The proceeds will support our development efforts at Tanbreez, one of the world’s largest rare earth deposits in Greenland, which is expected to help address the growing demand for heavy rare earths in the West,” Sage said. “We are pleased to welcome the support of our investors as we work to become a reliable supplier of critical minerals.” CRML stock was down 4.9% in after hours trading in New York. The company has a $2.01 billion market capitalization.

Bitcoin slipped below three-day Ichimoku cloud support on Wednesday, prompting market technician Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX) to flag the first decisive warning for bulls while outlining a tight sequence of conditional signals into month-end. Sharing a chart on X, he wrote: “Bulls finally lost the 3D kumo support which is the first clear red flag to look for.” He cautioned that the breakdown does not guarantee a straight-line slide, adding that “the kumo is very thick here which means the price can be very spiky/turbulent and even further down moves may be ‘bumpy’ for bears with bounces etc…” Why Bitcoin’s Next Bull Window Opens October 31 The analyst framed the next tests through the lens of Ichimoku’s time-price structure and the weekly baseline. “Probably the clearest indication for now to watch for would be the time cycles and whether the weekly Kijun Sen will hold,” he said, specifying levels at $105.700 for the current week and “$109,559” for next week. In Ichimoku methodology, the weekly Kijun Sen functions as a mean-reversion axis; sustained closes below it typically confirm momentum deterioration, while defenses of the line can reassert trend control without requiring an immediate new high. Dr Cat’s near-term line in the sand on daily closing conditions is clear: “If today closes above $113K we don’t have an indication for an immediate danger of a bearish continuation.” That threshold sits alongside his broader stance that separates time horizons. He reiterated that his “Long term = Bullish with the same targets I’ve shared many times,” but recast the shorter outlook as “Short to mid term = Neutral, range between ~$100K and prev ATH.” Rather than declaring a hard bottom, he now views sentiment as a risk factor in its own right: “I said recently that the bottom should be put by the 13th of October — and even already in. But today after observing the sentiment I have strong concerns about red flags… I haven’t seen in a very long time so much mass bullish confidence and even arrogance across Twitter. So at this point I will simply not try to guess whether the bottom is in or not.” He mapped out escalation points if downside resumes. “Short term bearish triggers would be a renew of the crash low briefly after the 13th of October, mid-term bearish trigger: the same but after the 19th, even better after the 26th of October.” In other words, a swift retest immediately after October 13 would raise short-term alarms, while fresh lows registered after October 19 or October 26 would strengthen the case that the corrective phase has more to run. He also downplayed the odds of a straight snapback, warning that “even if the bottom is in, a V-shaped recovery remains extremely unlikely.” Against that caution, Dr Cat still identifies a specific window for bullish validation. Anchoring to Ichimoku’s Chikou Span alignment on the daily and three-day timeframes, he said “the earliest window of opportunity for a bull breakout above ATH is the 31st of October.” That timing caveat is critical: the October 31 marker is a first possible opening, not a guarantee, contingent on price stabilizing around or above the weekly Kijun and avoiding those date-based bearish triggers. The shared chart underscores the nuance: price slipping beneath the three-day cloud is a mechanical negative, but the thickness of the cloud and proximity of higher-timeframe supports imply choppy discovery rather than a clean trend resolution before the end of the month. Taken together, Dr Cat’s framework is binary but conditional. A daily close back above $113,000 would blunt “immediate” continuation risk and keep the weekly Kijun defenses in play at $105,700 this week and $109,559 next week. Failure to hold those rails — particularly if accompanied by renewed lows after the 19th or 26th — would harden the corrective bias and defer any credible breakout attempt. As the calendar tightens, the market now has a clear checklist into October 31, when, per his model, the first “window of opportunity” opens for a move that could credibly threaten and surpass the previous all-time high. At press time, Bitcoin stood at $111,479.

"China is an adversary of the entire world." This statement, made on Wednesday evening by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, highlights the escalating tensions surrounding China. The controversy has intensified over the past week following Beijing's decision to tighten controls on the export of rare-earth metals. It remains unclear whether these "sanctions" will apply solely to the U.S. or to the global market. However, it is important to note that China leads the world in rare-earth metal production. According to Trump and Bessent, this gives Beijing the power to hold the entire world economy hostage. Secretary Bessent stated that tightening export controls on rare-earth metals is not a proportional response to U.S. actions but rather an act of economic coercion affecting the whole world. In his view, Beijing is using hostile rhetoric that could compel global economies to sever ties with China. Although Bessent emphasized that neither the world nor the U.S. wants such a rupture, these signals from Beijing are pushing the international community toward that very outcome. Bessent also criticized Chinese representative Li Chengang, accusing him of showing disrespect during a visit to Washington by issuing threats of global chaos. Notably, Bessent chose not to address the U.S. administration's own plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports—a figure that, according to some reports, could rise to 500% if China does not abandon its enhanced export control policy. It is now clear that Washington strongly dislikes reciprocal tactics. While neither Trump nor Bessent hesitates to impose tariffs on half the world, the reaction is entirely different when other countries respond with restrictions of their own. The White House's concern is understandable: rare-earth metals are critical to the production of nearly all technological products. Modern electronics and even many categories of military equipment rely on these materials. Political analysts believe China's move is a strategic preparation for the high-level negotiations scheduled for November between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Beijing is seeking to bolster its negotiating position to avoid what it sees as punitive tariffs. It must be acknowledged that China's hand in the negotiations is just as strong as America's. Also noteworthy is that Bessent spoke on behalf of "the entire world"—even though no other country has officially commented on Beijing's potential export restrictions. The U.S. continues to attempt to rally global allies in its stand against China. EUR/USD Wave Structure:Based on the current wave analysis of EUR/USD, the pair continues building an upward trend segment. The wave mapping remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop—particularly developments tied to Trump's decisions and the domestic and foreign policy of the current U.S. administration. Targets for the current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.2500 area. At present, we appear to be witnessing the completion of corrective wave 4, which is complex and drawn out. As a result, I continue to consider only long positions in the short term. By year-end, I anticipate the euro will reach the level of 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci. GBP/USD Wave Structure:The wave configuration of GBP/USD has shifted. We are still within an upward, impulsive trend segment, though its internal structure is becoming increasingly complex. Wave 4 is taking on a complicated three-wave form and is far more extended than wave 2. Currently, we are likely in the formation of another corrective three-wave pattern, which may soon be completed. If this assumption is correct, the currency pair could resume rising within the broader wave structure, with initial targets near the 1.3800–1.4000 range. Key Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are harder to trade and more prone to changes.If there is no clear understanding of market dynamics, it's better to stay out.Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of market analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Donald Trump's pressure campaign on Russia is expanding. The U.S. president recently demanded that India halt purchases of Russian oil and gas in an attempt to cut off funding for the war in Ukraine. Frankly, that formulation of the demand raises questions—particularly Trump's proclaimed desire to end the war in Ukraine. There's little doubt that the U.S. leader wants to see the conflict resolved, but seemingly not for the sake of long-awaited peace. Rather, he aims to solidify his status as a globally recognized politician of historic importance. Trump wants to go down in history. There's nothing inherently wrong with that motive, but his methods for achieving a ceasefire seem odd. Suppose India, China, and Japan were to stop buying oil and gas from Russia—then what? Where are these large, energy-hungry economies supposed to source their energy? The issue is not just complex logistics—as Trump perhaps assumes—but cost. In Trump's view, everyone should pay more for oil and preferably buy it from the U.S. He has repeatedly tried to reassure the leaders of China and India by offering "alternative purchases" from the U.S., which would come at a higher price. Naturally, such proposals don't benefit India or China. New Delhi and Beijing have no intention of following what they view as another unreasonable whim from the U.S. president. Every country acts in its own interests—something Trump either doesn't understand or refuses to acknowledge. On Wednesday, the U.S. president claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to stop buying Russian oil. On Thursday, however, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal announced that India made no such promises. Jaiswal emphasized that India's priority remains protecting its consumers, and the government's job is to ensure affordable energy and heating. Therefore, it's clear that no agreement has been reached between the U.S. and India. Elevated duties on Indian imports remain in place, and Trump continues to call on China and Japan to refuse Russian oil. EUR/USD Wave Structure:Based on the current wave analysis of EUR/USD, the pair continues building an upward trend segment. The wave mapping remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop—particularly developments tied to Trump's decisions and the domestic and foreign policy of the current U.S. administration. Targets for the current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.2500 area. At present, we appear to be witnessing the completion of corrective wave 4, which is complex and drawn out. As a result, I continue to consider only long positions in the short term. By year-end, I anticipate the euro will reach the level of 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci. GBP/USD Wave Structure:The wave configuration of GBP/USD has shifted. We are still within an upward, impulsive trend segment, though its internal structure is becoming increasingly complex. Wave 4 is taking on a complicated three-wave form and is far more extended than wave 2. Currently, we are likely in the formation of another corrective three-wave pattern, which may soon be completed. If this assumption is correct, the currency pair could resume rising within the broader wave structure, with initial targets near the 1.3800–1.4000 range. Key Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are harder to trade and more prone to changes.If there is no clear understanding of market dynamics, it's better to stay out.Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of market analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Japanese yen has recovered intraday losses that were previously driven by domestic political instability in Japan. The ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito collapsed, creating uncertainty as newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi seeks support for confirming her leadership. The strategy remains consistent—continue the economic stimulus policies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, focusing on aggressive fiscal spending and accommodative monetary measures, while simultaneously strengthening the yen's role as a haven currency amid global geopolitical instability. On the U.S. side, international trade tensions have escalated sharply. The U.S. has expanded restrictions on the export of high-tech goods, prompting China to tighten controls over rare-earth metal exports. The introduction of reciprocal port duties and recent remarks by Donald Trump declaring a "total trade war" have worsened the situation, casting a shadow over the global economic outlook. In response, the U.S. Treasury Secretary proposed delaying tariff hikes if China agrees to ease restrictions on the export of critical resources, offering a potential window for a temporary de-escalation. Geopolitical risks remain elevated. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Russia of serious consequences if military operations continue—intensifying tensions surrounding the Ukraine conflict and reinforcing demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset. Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan's key policy rate remains in focus as Naoki Tamura is tasked with gradually guiding it toward more neutral levels. This direction sharply diverges from rising expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December. In the U.S., the budget crisis continues. A judge has temporarily blocked the dismissal of federal employees amid ongoing funding disputes, while the Senate failed to pass another government funding resolution. The persistent uncertainty over the U.S. budget is exacerbating pressure on the dollar and contributing to heightened market volatility, which may benefit the yen's safe-haven status. From a technical perspective, a significant decline toward the 150.70 area would gradually shift the bias in favor of the bears. However, daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, supporting a favorable outlook for continued growth. A rebound above the key psychological level of 151.00 will face immediate resistance near 151.40, followed by another resistance zone around 151.70. A sustained move above this key area could drive USD/JPY further toward the round level of 152.00 and beyond. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is testing the key resistance level of 1.1660, which corresponds to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly (W1) timeframe. The pair is climbing steadily, and not solely due to the broad weakness of the U.S. dollar. The euro is also playing its part, responding positively to recent political developments in France. But first, let's address a key question—why is the dollar weakening? Not long ago, the U.S. dollar was in strong demand as a safe-haven asset, but over the last three days, the U.S. Dollar Index has been on a consistent decline. Major dollar pairs have shifted accordingly. In particular, EUR/USD sellers failed to break the 1.1550 support level, after which buyers took control of the pair. This shift occurred on October 14, right after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech. Dollar bulls reacted negatively to the Fed leader's tone, as he emphasized signs of a cooling U.S. labor market and essentially flagged a rate cut at the October meeting. It's worth noting that even before Powell's remarks, the market already expected the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month. Now, traders are convinced that another cut will follow in December, a scenario that only recently seemed uncertain. Currently, the probability of an October rate cut is priced at 97% (according to the CME FedWatch tool), while the likelihood of an additional December cut stands at 94%. Needless to say, that speaks volumes. Moreover, the market is now assigning a 50% chance of yet another cut in January—bringing the total expected reduction to 75 basis points. Only the September Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation data could confirm or challenge these expectations, but due to the government shutdown, their release has been postponed indefinitely. The only exception is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for October 24. Should it reflect stagnation or a slowdown in inflation, the dollar will come under additional pressure, reinforcing expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut by year-end. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown also plays a significant role in the dollar's weakness. Now into its 16th day, the standoff is costing the U.S. economy an estimated $15 billion per week in lost GDP, according to the White House. Each day of inactivity is an indirect blow to the dollar. And with both Democrats and Republicans refusing to compromise, this shutdown could become one of the longest on record. Meanwhile, in France, the political crisis has finally reached a resolution: lawmakers rejected a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's government. While this is only a temporary pause in political tensions, the euro responded positively to the news. In short, Lecornu—a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron—initially resigned after just 27 days in office due to clashes with parliament. Macron reappointed him as prime minister, warning that a vote of no confidence would result in the dissolution of parliament and early elections. Ultimately, Lecornu avoided a second resignation, primarily by agreeing to postpone the unpopular pension reform. On the one hand, this is not a happy ending, as the core problems of the political crisis remain unresolved. The parliament remains fragmented with no clear majority, and far-right and certain left-wing factions continue to call for a government reset. On the other hand, Macron avoided the most negative political outcome—including for the euro—by averting snap elections that could have strengthened right-wing forces with uncertain consequences. Additional pressure on the dollar came from the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which unexpectedly fell to -12.8 points in October. Most analysts had forecast growth to 8.6. This sharp decline highlights a significant drop in industrial activity in Philadelphia and surrounding regions. Taken together, this fundamental backdrop supports further growth in EUR/USD. However, it is advisable to consider long positions only after the pair firmly breaks above the 1.1660 resistance level, which aligns with the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the H4 chart and with the middle Bollinger Bands line on the W1 timeframe. The pair has attempted several times on Thursday to break and hold above this level, but so far, they have been unsuccessful. Therefore, long positions will become relevant only when the EUR/USD bulls finally overcome this level and consolidate above it. In that case, the next bullish targets will be 1.1690 (upper Bollinger Band on the H4 timeframe) and 1.1730 (Kijun-sen line on the D1 timeframe). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro has done what it had to—survive not one, but two votes of no confidence. First, the French government fended off a challenge from the left, then from the right. The yield spread between French and German bonds changed very little, and EUR/USD pulled back slightly from local highs. Was the old "buy the rumor, sell the fact" principle at play? Credit Agricole believes otherwise. According to the bank, all the negative news has already been priced into the euro, and there is strong demand from non-residents around the $1.15 area to hedge currency risk through selling U.S. dollars. French-German Bond Yield Spread Dynamics Sebastien Lecornu remains in power. First, 271 deputies voted for his resignation, then 144. But to topple the government, the National Assembly needed 289 votes. A political concession was made: the pension reform was postponed to 2027, the year of the next presidential elections. If Emmanuel Macron wins, he may carry it through. If he doesn't, the new head of state will decide what to do. Meanwhile, Washington is trying both to de-escalate the trade conflict and exploit the opponent's weaknesses. It's possible that Beijing overplayed its hand. The disruption of supply chains caused by tighter controls on rare-earth element exports comes off as China inflicting damage on the global economy without clear justification. Negotiations are on the horizon, with a final deadline set for November 1. According to the futures market, the revival of trade uncertainty is increasing the risk of a U.S. economic slowdown and is pushing the Federal Reserve closer to aggressively loosening monetary policy. Derivatives are now pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut as early as October or December. This is putting considerable pressure on the U.S. dollar. Investor Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts The realization that both the U.S. economy and stock indexes are under threat is prompting the White House to attempt to de-escalate the trade conflict. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has floated the idea of extending the current tariffs on China for more than three months. This issue is expected to be discussed in November. Late autumn is also set to bring a Supreme Court hearing on the legality of Donald Trump's tariffs. The president has hinted that he may attend the hearing in person. A repeal of the import tariffs could sow widespread chaos throughout financial markets. Still, investors currently have other concerns. The euro has unloaded its political burdens, while the U.S. dollar is once again hurting in its most vulnerable area—Federal Reserve policy. Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD has returned to the fair value range and continues its rally. A breakout above the 1.1675 and 1.1695 resistance levels would provide solid grounds for adding to long positions initiated from 1.1635. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The September employment report came out unexpectedly strong, with the total number of new jobs increasing by 60,000—a significant figure for Canada and well above the forecast of 5,000. Average wage growth remained unchanged at 3.6%, as did the unemployment rate. At the same time, the number of hours worked fell by 0.2% month-over-month, with quarterly growth totaling just 0.4%, which gives reason to expect weak GDP growth for the third quarter. Nonetheless, the September figures noticeably outperformed the weak data from August, and the Bank of Canada will have to take this into account when formulating its next steps. The upcoming meeting is scheduled for the end of the month, and so far, all indications suggest another rate cut will be delayed. Core inflation remains below target, and the high unemployment rate signals that there is still considerable slack in the economy. For the BoC to proceed with another rate cut, the inflation report for September, due on October 21, would need to show a marked slowdown in price growth. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office has released its budget review for September. The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is expected to total $1.8 trillion, just $8 billion below the 2024 deficit. Clearly, higher tariffs have not yielded meaningful results, and according to Treasury Secretary Bessent, the government shutdown is beginning to show effects in terms of economic slowdown. The currency market remains calm ahead of the anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi, which will determine whether a new round of trade escalation between the U.S. and China is imminent. For now, there is no clear catalyst. The Federal Reserve meeting will take place after the summit, so reduced volatility and sideways trading are expected in the near term. In the absence of updated CFTC data, the estimated price remains above its long-term average, with no signs of a shift to the downside yet. As expected, USD/CAD continues to rise and has currently reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel. The likelihood of a technical pullback to the mid-channel area around 1.3930/50 has increased, but from a fundamental standpoint, there is little justification for such a retreat. If the bullish momentum persists—which current factors support—the most likely scenario is continued growth, stable consolidation above the channel boundary, and movement toward the next resistance area of 1.4150/65. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP is still looking to confirm a strong bounce in price action after a crash that saw it register a huge bearish wick over the weekend, and many analysts are anticipating its next major move. According to technical analysis by crypto analyst HovWaves, XRP’s recent crash and bounce could be the early stage of a broader rally that positions its price for a run to as high as $8. XRP Finds Support And Rebounds Over 50% Technical analysis of XRP’s price action on the weekly timeframe, which was posted on the social media platform X by HovWaves, noted that the cryptocurrency got the move down into our support level for the expanded flat he was following. This is in reference to earlier outlooks by the analyst, where he predicted that the XRP price would revisit a strong support zone to complete a corrective Elliot cycle Wave 4 formation. This reaction zone, which is between $1.50 and $1.90, is visible in the weekly candlestick timeframe chart below. Interestingly, the analyst added that the timing of the move surprised him, especially considering this revisit was in one strong move that saw XRP create a strong downside wick. However, XRP’s reaction from this level was impressive, as it immediately went on a nice 50+% bounce off the support. This rebound validated the ongoing Elliott wave count, and the next move is a sub-impulse Wave 5 rally that keeps the bullish momentum in place. XRP Price Roadmap To $8 The analyst’s prediction is that the initial phase of this new impulse could take XRP to the $5.5 level, which he identified as the “first target on the way to our macro target.” His broader wave projection shows a larger move to $8 for the completion of a higher-degree third impulse wave in a larger impulse wave count that goes as far back as July 2024. This rally will look like XRP’s breakout patterns from 2017 and early 2021, when higher-degree waves led to massive multi-hundred-percent runs. The chart’s yellow projection line also indicates that a brief corrective pullback could form at just $4.00 before a continuation to $8, implying a wave-driven progression rather than a straight-line surge. The bullish outlook led to quick responses from within the XRP community. Cryptoinsightuk, another well-followed XRP analyst, replied to HovWaves’ post, saying, “This is extremely similar to what I’ve been discussing with you all for $XRP.” XRP’s crash over the weekend undoubtedly took many by surprise, but Cryptoinsightuk’s comment shows a growing confluence among technical analysts who see XRP’s structure still in line with a bullish uptrend on the macro level. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.40, down by 4.4% in the past 24 hours, having been rejected at around $2.52. Nonetheless, the 50% recovery from its most recent downside wick could indeed grow into the larger move predicted by HovWaves.

Thumzup Media Corp. is pushing ahead with plans to let creators receive payments in Dogecoin (DOGE), as new data shows the meme token has slipped in recent days even amid renewed institutional interest. Based on reports, the firm’s strategy includes a $2.5 million loan to DogeHash for mining expansion, and a treasury holding of 7.5 million DOGE, while regulatory and adoption challenges still loom. Thumzup Prepares DOGE Payouts According to company-adjacent sources, Thumzup intends to offer Dogecoin as an alternative payout option, alongside fiat or other crypto choices, once pilot testing and legal reviews are done. The $2.5 million infusion into DogeHash Technologies is framed as both a way to help scale mining capacity and to cement a tighter corporate alliance via a possible share swap. In public disclosures, Thumzup reports holding 7.5 million DOGE and some Bitcoin in its treasury as part of its broader crypto portfolio. DOGE Price Slides Amid Broader Weakness Reports have disclosed that Dogecoin has dropped by about 3% over the past 24 hours, putting its price near $0.197. Over the past week, DOGE has declined roughly 18%, making it among the worst performers in the top 10 cryptocurrencies. At the same time, trading volume and market cap show continued investor involvement, but sentiment is clearly under pressure. Some analysts warn that the volatility could discourage content creators from opting for DOGE payments unless stabilization tools or hedging mechanisms are put in place. Market And Share Reactions The announcement of DOGE integration and mining investments drew mixed reactions. Thumzup’s stock rallied modestly in after-hours trading, reflecting investor appetite for a more diversified asset base. Some crypto traders placed bids pushing DOGE higher on the news, though many remain skeptical of execution risks. The bears seem to have had their fill, an analyst said, suggesting some traders see recent downward moves as an opportunity. On the flip side, volatility and regulatory ambiguity may hold back broader adoption. Regulation, Execution, And Adoption Risks Based on reports, Thumzup faces steep hurdles. Money-transmission laws, tax rules, and anti-money-laundering checks must be cleared before payout functionality can roll out. Technical integration is also a challenge: wallets, custody solutions, conversion to fiat, and user protections all need building. Even if all that is done, creators may lean toward stablecoins or cash over a volatile token. Meanwhile, running and scaling a mining operation adds power expenses, supply chain risk, and dependency on favorable network conditions. Featured image from ICOBench, chart from TradingView