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Cantonese Cat argues that Dogecoin remains structurally primed for a late-cycle surge that would track the pattern of prior crypto bull markets, insisting that the coin’s decisive move has not yet arrived. In a 50-minute market analysis published on Oct. 19, the analyst ties Dogecoin’s setup to liquidity cycles and inter-market signals, but emphasizes that the DOGE read is simple: the market hasn’t seen the characteristic Dogecoin breakout that, in past cycles, has coincided with Bitcoin’s final acceleration. “Whenever you have Bitcoin going up, Dogecoin also is forming a pretty decent base,” he said, noting that DOGE has participated only marginally while Bitcoin has ground higher. The trigger, in his view, is explicit. “Once you have Doge breaking into all-time high… that can happen in a hurry… once you have Doge breaking [its] all-time high, generally that’s when the acceleration phase of Bitcoin begins.” He frames that relationship as a recurring feature of cycle dynamics rather than an exception, arguing that the absence of a Dogecoin all-time-high breakout is one of several reasons he rejects the thesis that the broader crypto cycle has already ended. Is The Dogecoin Bull Run Over? Cantonese Cat links that call to the broader backdrop of risk appetite and liquidity, but he repeatedly narrows the lens to DOGE itself. He characterizes recent price action as a wear-you-out phase—punctuated by a sharp deleveraging “last week… with a big giant wick”—that has hardened bearish sentiment without invalidating the longer-term structure. “We haven’t had Doge breaking the all-time high yet… We have the deleveraging event, but we haven’t had [the] breakout into all-time high,” he said, adding that the coin’s base-building is consistent with how earlier cycles have unfolded before rapid upside. Part of his conviction stems from how he reads Bitcoin dominance and the timing of altcoin rotations. He argues that dominance has run for “2022, 2023, 2024, almost the bulk of 2025,” looks “a little bit tired,” and has been moving sideways for roughly a year. In his framework, a turn lower in dominance would not necessarily mean Bitcoin weakness; rather, it would imply outperformance by altcoins. “If we end the cycle right here… this will be the very first time ever that we haven’t had any rotations from Bitcoin to altcoins and we haven’t had that parabolic phase—and this time would be different.” He is explicit that he does not buy the “this time is different” narrative, stating, “I just don’t really think that the cycle is different from [the] previous [one]… because things are still playing out.” The Dogecoin-specific takeaway is that the market’s recent stress does not negate the historical sequencing he expects. He argues that the coin’s signature move typically arrives after prolonged compression, often in a condensed window. “Last time [it] only happened within like a couple months and next thing you know it’s just like whoa what happened,” he recalled, cautioning that DOGE’s acceleration window can open quickly once resistance gives way. That pattern recognition underpins his pushback against entrenched pessimism: “A lot of people are just extremely bitter about Doge because this cycle has been wearing everybody out,” he said, but he views that sentiment as typical of pre-breakout conditions rather than evidence of structural failure. Cantonese Cat repeatedly stresses that he is not giving financial advice and allows that his call could be wrong. Still, he returns to the same fulcrum: Dogecoin hasn’t delivered the hallmark event of a completed cycle. Until it does—or definitively fails—he treats the coin as coiled rather than concluded. “The reality [is], I just don’t really think that the cycle is different… We haven’t had that [DOGE] breakout,” he said, summing up the risk-on bias that animates his view. In other words, for traders positioning around late-cycle outcomes, his message is that the “Dogecoin moment” remains ahead of the tape—and that the bears could be early. DOGE Is Price Targets Although the analyst does not cite fresh DOGE targets in the Oct. 19 video, he defers to levels from his earlier work, where he laid out several price-target frameworks for Dogecoin. In those prior notes, he argued that DOGE could be entering Wave 3 of an Elliott Wave structure after reclaiming the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous impulse ($0.20088). From that framework, he highlighted upside projections around $0.48 (1.0 extension), $0.89 (1.272), $1.23 (1.414), and $1.96 (1.618). In variant commentary, he has also floated outcomes $2.00+ if a breakout accelerates, and in a more speculative scenario—likely from a separate video—he said, “I’m going to lay down the case as to why I think DOGE can hit $4 this cycle…”. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.201.

Boa noite, traders. Acabamos de receber a prova mais contundente e alarmante de que o "squeeze" físico nos mercados de metais preciosos atingiu um ponto de ruptura. Relatórios urgentes e uma transcrição de conversas no mercado chinês, divulgados pela CCTV, confirmam o impensável: Yongxing, a "Capital da Prata" da China e responsável por 25% da produção do país, está oficialmente sem estoque de barras de prata. Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro, Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE Esta não é uma anomalia isolada. É o prenúncio de uma crise de oferta de prata física que está se espalhando globalmente. 1. A Anatomia do Aperto na "Capital da Prata" Os detalhes que chegam de Yongxing e do mercado de prata de Shuibei são chocantes: Varejistas Vendidos: Lojas em Yongxing que antes comercializavam barras de prata estão completamente esgotadas. Demanda Frenética: Conversas de mercado (como a transcrição anexa) revelam que a demanda é tão alta que é descrita como "louca" ("抢疯了"). Mesmo pequenas quantidades (10kg) são difíceis de obter. Um comerciante relata ter lutado por dias para conseguir 10-20kg para um amigo. Mercado de Shuibei em Chamas: Barras de 1kg sendo vendidas a $60.28/onça (muito acima dos preços de mercado "de papel"). Compras acima de 10kg exigem espera de 1 mês para entrega. Barras pré-vendidas a $52.34/onça (com pagamento integral antecipado), sem garantias de entrega e relatos de comerciantes desaparecendo. Retirada direta da refinaria custa $56.70/onça + VAT + taxas. Minha Análise (Igor Pereira): O que estamos vendo é um colapso na cadeia de fornecimento de prata física ao nível do varejo e dos pequenos atacadistas. Quando o maior centro de produção de um país como a China fica sem estoque e as entregas se estendem por um mês, isso indica que a oferta disponível já foi esgotada e o sistema está funcionando no limite. Os preços exorbitantes sobre o spot de papel são a prova do pânico e da escassez real. 2. A Prata Desaparece: Implicações Globais Esta notícia, vinda da China – o maior consumidor industrial de prata e um dos maiores compradores de varejo – tem implicações monumentais para o mercado global. Validação do Squeeze: Este é um endosso irrefutável de nossa tese de "aperto físico" que venho alertando. Não é teoria; é uma realidade brutal nos balcões de vendas e nas refinarias. Prata "Inatingível": Nossas previsões de que a prata está se tornando "inatingível" estão se concretizando mais rápido do que o esperado. Pressão no Preço do "Papel": A pressão de compra no mercado físico eventualmente terá que se refletir nos preços de "papel" (futuros). A desconexão entre o mercado físico e o de derivativos está se tornando insustentável. Conclusão de Igor Pereira: Um Alerta Sem Precedentes para o XAG/USD A situação em Yongxing e Shuibei não é apenas uma notícia; é um marco na história dos mercados de metais preciosos. É a prova irrefutável de que a demanda física por prata está explodindo e a oferta está falhando. Para os traders e investidores em Prata (XAG/USD), a mensagem é clara: A volatilidade vai aumentar drasticamente. Qualquer queda no preço de "papel" deve ser vista como uma oportunidade de compra em meio a uma crise de oferta. O alvo de $100 para a prata em 2026, que pode ter parecido ambicioso, agora parece conservador diante desta escassez física. Estejam preparados. O mercado de prata está em rota de colisão com a realidade da oferta e demanda. O "squeeze" é real, e seus efeitos serão sentidos globalmente.

Macroeconomic Report Overview: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Therefore, today, traders may only monitor speeches by Donald Trump and little else. Even speeches by central bank representatives currently carry minimal significance, as markets have a clear understanding of what to expect in the near future. The only remaining uncertainty relates to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, though even that is relatively minor. Fundamental Event Overview: Few fundamental events are scheduled for Monday, and almost none of them are generating any interest. Over the past several weeks, we have witnessed numerous speeches from representatives of the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve. As such, the market is fully aware of the positions of all three central banks. A scheduled speech by Isabel Schnabel from the ECB on Monday is unlikely to change anything. It's worth recalling that Eurozone inflation increased more than expected in September, which does not support further monetary easing. However, even before the new inflation report, the ECB was not inclined to lower the key interest rate further. Thus, the release of the new inflation figures has changed nothing. General Conclusions: On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue their upward movement after breaking through trendlines. For the euro, there is a strong trading area at 1.1655–1.1666, from which both long and short positions can be considered depending on upcoming signals. For the British pound, the 1.3413–1.3421 area has already been broken through, which means further growth toward the 1.3466–1.3475 zone can be expected. Main Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is determined by how quickly the signal is formed (rebound or breakout of a level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signal trades were opened near a certain level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During flat market conditions, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, trading is best avoided at the first signs of a flat market.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; all trades should be closed manually afterward.On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should only be traded when there is sufficient volatility and an established trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.If two levels are located too close (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.After a trade has moved 15-20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and Resistance Price Levels – levels that serve as targets for opening buy and sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.Red Lines – trendlines or trend channels that display the current trend direction and indicate the preferred trading direction.MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.Important speeches and reports (always shown in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, it's best to trade with extreme caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding trend. Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and using proper money management are key to long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review:1-Hour Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair showed a slight downward movement on Friday amidst easing tensions between China and the United States. It is also worth noting that over the weekend, the United States witnessed its third protest against Donald Trump's immigration and trade policies, with this one being the largest by far. Demonstrations took place in more than 2,600 cities across America, and not all of them were peaceful or orderly. As we can see, America is rebelling against Donald Trump, which is quite logical considering both his foreign and domestic policies. Consequently, we continue to believe that with Trump at the helm, America is heading into decline. Many central banks are already moving away from using the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. People are already leaving America. And it is already evident that doing business with the U.S. will become increasingly difficult in the coming years. Therefore, we foresee further decline for the dollar. 5-Minute Chart of GBP/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Friday. All three were false, as the price movement throughout the day was very weak. The price generated signals three times in the 1.3413–1.3421 area but failed to move even 20 pips in the desired direction. As a reminder, no matter how good trading signals are, if volatility is near zero, making a profit is impossible. How to Trade on Monday: On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has finally begun forming a new bullish trend, which could mark the start of a new leg in the global uptrend. As previously mentioned, there are no fundamental reasons for a sustained dollar rally, so in the medium term, we expect the dollar to move only to the upside. Donald Trump's policy, which has sharply intensified regarding tariffs in recent weeks, will continue to drive the market away from the U.S. dollar. On Monday, the GBP/USD pair may attempt to continue its upward movement, as the trend has shifted to bullish. A bounce from the 1.3413–1.3421 zone would allow for opening long positions with targets at 1.3466–1.3475. A consolidation of price below the 1.3413–1.3421 area would indicate a new phase of downward correction. On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can now be conducted around the following levels: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. On Monday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in either the United Kingdom or the United States. As a result, there will be little for traders to respond to throughout the day, and volatility may once again remain low. Main Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is determined by how quickly the signal is formed (rebound or breakout of a level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signal trades were opened near a certain level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During flat market conditions, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, trading is best avoided at the first signs of a flat market.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; all trades should be closed manually afterward.On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should only be traded when there is sufficient volatility and an established trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.If two levels are located too close (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.After a trade has moved 20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and Resistance Price Levels – levels that serve as targets for opening buy and sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.Red Lines – trendlines or trend channels that display the current trend direction and indicate the preferred trading direction.MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.Important speeches and reports (always shown in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, it's best to trade with extreme caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding trend. Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and using proper money management are key to long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review: 1-Hour Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair declined more than it rose. As a reminder, the technical trend turned bullish last week; therefore, traders are now fully justified in expecting the euro to rise. It's also worth noting that recently (in our view), the euro had few grounds for decline, and the U.S. dollar had little reason to strengthen. However, the daily timeframe remains flat, which is why we saw nearly three weeks of decline, raising many questions. As for Friday itself, the inflation report in the Eurozone for September came in above both forecasts and the initial estimate. The higher the inflation rate, the less likely the European Central Bank is to lower interest rates further. In this way, higher inflation supports the euro. But as we can see, traders ignored the report, as expected. In the second half of the day, Donald Trump somewhat eased market tension by stating that an agreement with China was likely, and that increased tariffs would not be permanent. Based on this, the dollar may have strengthened slightly. 5-Minute Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe during Friday's session, there were virtually no trading signals formed. As the evening approached, the price fell toward the 1.1655–1.1666 area, but by that time, most traders had already exited for the weekend. Today, the pair remains in this area, and no new trading signals have been formed yet. How to Trade on Monday: On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is finally showing signs of an uptrend. The descending trendline has once again been broken, and the overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. Thus, we continue to expect the resumption of the bullish trend of 2025. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair could move in either direction, as there are almost no significant fundamental or macroeconomic events scheduled for the day. Novice traders may wait for a signal to form around the 1.1655–1.1666 area. However, overall price movements could be weak today. On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. For Monday, there are no significant reports or events scheduled in either the Eurozone or the United States. Therefore, volatility may once again be very low, but the euro may continue its gradual upward movement, as all necessary grounds for that currently exist. Main Rules of the Trading System:Signal strength is determined by how quickly the signal is formed (rebound or breakout of a level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signal trades were opened near a certain level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During flat market conditions, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, trading is best avoided at the first signs of a flat market.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; all trades should be closed manually afterward.On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should only be traded when there is sufficient volatility and an established trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.If two levels are located too close (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.After a trade has moved 15 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support and Resistance Price Levels – levels that serve as targets for opening buy and sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.Red Lines – trendlines or trend channels that display the current trend direction and indicate the preferred trading direction.MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.Important speeches and reports (always shown in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, it's best to trade with extreme caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding trend. Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and using proper money management are key to long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[USDX] – [Monday, October 20, 2025] The appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI indicator against the price movement of #USDX, combined with its position in the Neutral-Bearish zone and confirmation via a Death Cross between the two EMAs, suggests that #USDX is likely to decline today. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 98.86 2. Resistance. 1 : 98.69 3. Pivot : 98.34 4. Support. 1 : 98.17 5. Support. 2 : 97.82 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 98.34, #USDX may continue its decline toward 98.17. Momentum Extension Bias: If 98.17 is breached, #USDX has the potential to fall further toward 97.82. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside bias is contained if #USDX strengthens and breaks and closes above 98.86. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 98.40 EMA(200): 98.59 RSI(14) : 47.22 + Bearish Divergent Ecconomic News Release Agenda: From the United States, only one economic data release is scheduled for tonight which is CB Leading Index m/m at 21:00 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[XPD/USD] – [Monday, October 20, 2025] With a Death Cross between both EMAs and the RSI indicator in the Neutral-Bearish zone showing a Hidden Bearish Divergence, XPD/USD has the potential to continue weakening. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 1733.97 2. Resistance. 1 : 1615.86 3. Pivot : 1554.09 4. Support. 1 : 1435.98 5. Support. 2 : 1374.21 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 1435.98, there's a high likelihood it will test the 1374.21 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1374.21 is broken and closes below, XPD/USD could continue weakening toward 1256.10. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside bias is neutralized if the price stabilizes above the resistance zone. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 1538.28 EMA(200): 1552.96 RSI(14) : 41.86 + Hidden Bearish Divergent Ecconomic News Release Agenda: From the United States, only one economic data release is scheduled for tonight which is CB Leading Index m/m at 21:00 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Boa noite, traders. Um evento crítico para o futuro do mercado de criptomoedas acaba de ser anunciado, e todos os olhos devem estar voltados para Washington. Em 22 de outubro, os legisladores democratas dos EUA realizarão uma mesa redonda focada exclusivamente em criptomoedas. Minha Análise (Igor Pereira): O Que Esperar e Por Que é Importante Este evento é de suma importância por vários motivos: Sinal de Aumento da Pressão Regulatória: A realização de uma mesa redonda por legisladores de um dos maiores partidos nos EUA indica que o escrutínio regulatório sobre o setor de criptoativos está se intensificando. Não é um debate casual, mas um movimento orquestrado para discutir o futuro da legislação. Influência Política: Os democratas têm defendido uma abordagem mais cautelosa e regulatória para as criptomoedas, focando em proteção ao consumidor, estabilidade financeira e combate a atividades ilícitas. Suas discussões podem moldar a agenda legislativa futura e influenciar a postura de órgãos como a SEC e o Tesouro. Potencial para Volatilidade: Dependendo do tom e das conclusões desta mesa redonda, o mercado de criptomoedas, incluindo o Bitcoin (BTC/USD), pode experimentar volatilidade significativa. Declarações que sinalizem regulamentações mais rígidas podem gerar pressão de venda, enquanto uma abordagem mais conciliatória ou focada na inovação pode trazer alívio. Cripto vs. Ouro: No contexto da nossa análise anterior sobre a ameaça do ouro ao Bitcoin, qualquer sinal de aumento da incerteza regulatória nos EUA pode reforçar a percepção de que, para a proteção de capital, o ouro oferece uma estabilidade regulatória (e fiduciária) superior em comparação com os ativos digitais. Conclusão: Marquem seus calendários. O dia 22 de outubro será um momento-chave para entender a direção que a política cripto americana pode tomar. Estejam preparados para a potencial repercussão no preço do Bitcoin e outros ativos digitais. A era da regulamentação está avançando, e o mercado precisa estar atento.

Ethereum price started a recovery wave above $3,880. ETH is now rising and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,050 resistance. Ethereum started a fresh recovery above $3,800 and $3,880. The price is trading above $3,920 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $3,940 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it trades above $4,050. Ethereum Price Rises Again Ethereum price struggled to settle above $4,050 and corrected most gains, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below the $4,000 and $3,800 levels. It even tested the $3,680 zone. A low was formed at $3,677 and the price is now correcting losses. There was a decent move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,292 swing high to the $3,677 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $3,940 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $3,920 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,050 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,292 swing high to the $3,677 low. The next key resistance is near the $4,120 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,220 level. A clear move above the $4,220 resistance might send the price toward the $4,320 resistance. An upside break above the $4,320 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,440 resistance zone or even $4,500 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,050 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,940 level. The first major support sits near the $3,880 zone. A clear move below the $3,880 support might push the price toward the $3,820 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,680 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,620. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $3,880 Major Resistance Level – $4,050

Boa noite, traders e membros, Hoje, vamos confrontar uma realidade que poucos na indústria cripto estão dispostos a admitir: o ouro não é apenas um competidor; ele é a maior ameaça estrutural ao Bitcoin. A narrativa de entusiasmo em torno do Bitcoin prosperou em um período de consolidação do ouro. Mas agora, com o ouro em plena ascensão global, o ímpeto para a compra de Bitcoin está diminuindo, projetando uma fase de estagnação ou lateralização para as criptomoedas no curto prazo. Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro, Membro Junior WallStreet NYSE Este não é um momento para achismos ou otimismo infundado. É hora de analisar os fatos, os dados macroeconômicos e a psicologia de um mercado que está à beira de uma reprecificação monumental. 1. O Contexto Macro: Desvalorização Fiduciária e Confiança Perdida É imperativo reconhecer: a atual valorização estratosférica do ouro não é um reflexo do crescimento robusto dos EUA, nem meramente da impressão de dinheiro. O FMI pode se recusar a admitir, mas o estatismo descontrolado – as políticas fiscais e monetárias expansionistas e irresponsáveis – corroeu fundamentalmente a confiança nas moedas fiduciárias dos países desenvolvidos. O ouro está respondendo a uma crise de confiança sistêmica. Bancos Centrais: O "dinheiro inteligente" dos bancos centrais já internalizou essa crise. A alocação de ouro em suas reservas globais triplicou de 10% para 22% desde 2000, o maior patamar em quase três décadas. E se eles retornarem aos níveis de 70% de 1980, o ouro atingirá US$ 6.042 — isso não é especulação, é matemática básica. Oferta vs. Preço: O argumento simplista de que o ouro subirá apenas pela impressão de dinheiro é insuficiente. A recente valorização do ouro excedeu significativamente o crescimento da oferta monetária no último ano. Esta divergência é um sinal de que a demanda está sendo impulsionada por algo muito mais fundamental. 2. As Implicações para o Bitcoin: Uma Rivalidade Direta A ascensão imparável do ouro, especialmente em um cenário de confiança abalada, coloca o Bitcoin em uma posição delicada. Enquanto o ouro se torna "inacessível" para muitos e a prata "inatingível", os que buscaram o Bitcoin como "ouro digital" podem começar a reavaliar suas escolhas. Queda Lateralizada para Bitcoin: Com o ouro reafirmando seu status de refúgio definitivo, o capital que antes migrava para o Bitcoin em busca de proteção pode agora encontrar um ativo mais estabelecido e reconhecido. Isso pode, e deve, desencadear uma queda lateralizada para o Bitcoin no curto prazo, um ajuste doloroso de expectativas. 3. Previsões para 2026: Uma Nova Ordem Financeira As projeções para 2026 não são apenas previsões; são o mapeamento de uma mudança tectônica no cenário financeiro global: Ouro (XAU/USD): US$ 7.000 ou próximo Prata (XAG/USD): $ 100 Bitcoin (BTC/USD): $72.500 (um ajuste significativo da euforia prévia) Dow Jones: 34.000 (uma visão conservadora que reflete a pressão sobre ações) Nasdaq: 15.000 (igualmente conservador, mostrando vulnerabilidade de ativos de crescimento) Isto não é uma opinião, é um fato. Estamos prestes a assistir a uma repetição do cenário de 2011 para ouro e prata, com um impulso ainda maior devido às condições macroeconômicas atuais. 4. Análise Técnica XAU/USD: Preparando-se para a Próxima Fase (20 a 26 de Outubro de 2025) Apesar da força estrutural do ouro, é fundamental reconhecer os ciclos de mercado. O fechamento semanal em $4.249,98 (queda de 1,76%) em 19 de outubro sugere uma vulnerabilidade de curto prazo devido ao "cansaço" da forte alta e aos extremos de momentum. Níveis Chave para a Semana: Ponto de Pivô Crítico: $4.215,60 Resistências Chave (Alvos de Curto Prazo e Pressão Vendedora): R1: $ 4.236 - $ 4.222 R2: $ 4.257,43 R3: $ 4.272,92 R4: $4.285-$4.293 (Zona de forte resistência, potencial para ajustes) Alvos Mais Altos: $4.303-$4.314 e $4.315-$4.326. Um fechamento semanal acima de $4.308 validaria a continuidade da alta. Suportes Chave (Oportunidades de Compra Estratégica): S1: $ 4.212,33 S2: $ 4.199,75 S3: $ 4.182,64 Suportes Críticos para a Tendência: $4.122 - $4.054 (linha mediana). Manter-se acima desta zona é vital para a retomada da alta. Suporte Mais Profundo: $3.953. Uma queda abaixo de $4.000 pode sinalizar uma retração mais profunda, mas ainda dentro de uma macro-tendência de alta. Previsão para a Próxima Semana: A perspectiva imediata aponta para vulnerabilidade e uma potencial correção menor. Se as perdas forem contidas acima da importante zona de $4.120–$4.055, o par pode consolidar e, após um respiro necessário, retomar sua alta, mirando em $4.307 e potencialmente buscando $4-45x–$4.6xx em um movimento estendido. Riscos Chave a Monitorar: Dados de inflação dos EUA (CPI, PPI). Desenvolvimentos nas tensões comerciais EUA-China. Impactos do "shutdown" fiscal doméstico nos EUA. Esses fatores podem influenciar as expectativas do Federal Reserve e provocar volatilidade intensa. Conclusão de Igor Pereira: A Era do Ouro Incontestável Estamos entrando em uma era onde o ouro não é apenas um hedge; ele é o epicentro de uma reavaliação global de valor. Enquanto a indústria cripto pode "atacar" o ouro em um desespero para manter sua narrativa, os fatos econômicos e o movimento inegável do capital institucional apontam para uma verdade: o ouro está se estabelecendo como o porto seguro primário em um mundo em transformação. Preparem-se. A próxima década será definida pelo retorno do Rei dos Metais. A análise que você acabou de ler não é especulação; é a interpretação de dados e fatos que estão remodelando o mercado financeiro global. Enquanto a maioria observa, os profissionais operam. No ExpertFX Club, esta é apenas a superfície. Lá dentro, você terá acesso diário à inteligência de mercado que realmente importa: fluxo de ordens institucional em tempo real, estratégias acionáveis para Ouro (XAU/USD), Prata (XAG/USD) e Bitcoin (BTC/USD), e a clareza para navegar e lucrar com a volatilidade. Não se contente com informações superficiais. Tome decisões com a precisão de um insider. Pronto para operar no padrão institucional? acesse e conheça no site https://expertfx.club/

Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $107,500 and $108,000. BTC could continue to move up if it clears the $109,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $105,000 resistance level. The price is trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $107,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $109,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery Bitcoin price failed to surpass the $110,000 resistance level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below the $108,000 and $106,500 support levels to enter a bearish zone. The price even dipped below $105,000. A low was formed at $103,583 and the price is correcting some losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $115,975 swing high to the $103,583 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $107,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $109,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $110,000 level. The next resistance could be $111,250 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $115,975 swing high to the $103,583 low. A close above the $111,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $112,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $113,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $115,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $110,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $108,000 level. The first major support is near the $107,500 level. The next support is now near the $106,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $105,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $108,000, followed by $106,500. Major Resistance Levels – $109,500 and $111,250.

EUR/USD On Friday, the market experienced profit-taking. The euro declined by 35 pips, and trading volume was high. However, with the start of a new week, speculators may once again turn to risk amid rising stock indices and government bond yields. On the daily chart, the price briefly dipped below the MACD indicator line, but today's session opened above it. The Marlin oscillator is rising and preparing to enter the territory of an upward trend. Once it does, euro growth may accelerate. The target at 1.1779, based on the highs of October 1 and September 9, is open. On the four-hour chart, during the downward correction, Marlin did not move into negative territory, and the price declined only moderately without reaching any indicator lines. It is likely that only the September low and other local extremes around the 1.1650 level were tested. We expect the price to reverse from the current level and resume growth toward the target of 1.1779. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Friday's trading range for the pound was about 80 pips, with the day closing down by eight pips. The lower shadow of the candlestick touched the MACD line. This is a sign that the repositioning of short-term traders has been completed, and the price is ready to continue rising toward the target level of 1.3525. The balance line (red moving average) is approaching this level, and the price may reach the target at the point where it intersects with the indicator line. In that case, a new correction may occur. The Marlin oscillator is still in negative territory but visually appears to be preparing to enter the growth zone. On the four-hour chart, the extremes of Friday's session are forming a range for potential consolidation. The nearly horizontal movement of the Marlin oscillator currently signals a sideways trend. Therefore, a breakout above Friday's high at 1.3470 will be a signal for growth. A downward breakout, as an alternative scenario, appears unlikely at the moment due to the presence of numerous strong support levels on both the H4 and daily timeframes. However, if the price manages to consolidate below 1.3350 (MACD line), a target of 1.3253 will open up. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/GBP Despite the pair's desperate attempt on Friday to break above the MACD line, the day closed with a black candlestick, confirming the consolidation that occurred the day before. Additionally, the oscillator line of the Marlin indicator on the daily timeframe has returned to the territory of a downtrend. There are all the initial signs of a further price decline toward the lower boundary of the price channel, in the area of the 0.8592 mark. The duration of such a move could equal half the distance between Fibonacci time lines No. 9 and No. 10, which, accounting for the weekend, points to the beginning of November. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the balance and MACD indicator lines. However, here the price is coiling around the MACD line like on an axis, which maintains a possibility of the price returning above the line. But with each passing day, this probability decreases, as the Marlin oscillator is falling within its own channel, and the MACD line itself is descending. A move below the signal level of 0.8663 will confirm the main bearish scenario. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The GBP/USD pair experienced a moderate decline on Friday by the end of the day, though it was significantly weaker than the drop observed in EUR/USD. It's important to note that no macroeconomic reports were released in either the U.K. or the U.S. during the final trading day of the week. Market movement was primarily driven by politics, and there is no shortage of that at the moment. Donald Trump remains committed to ending the war in Ukraine, recently calling it "the ninth war he will resolve." While some may struggle to count the prior eight, this theme fits within Trump's recurring narrative that, had he been in office, events such as the Russia–Ukraine war wouldn't have even begun. However, market participants are currently less focused on Ukraine and far more concerned with Trump's global trade war and the increasingly dovish outlook for Federal Reserve policy. The trade war was discussed in detail in the EUR/USD analysis. Let's now revisit the situation at the Fed, which is becoming increasingly difficult. Despite the Fed's outwardly dovish rhetoric, some segments of the market continue to push alternative narratives, even questioning the Fed's true intentions. At the beginning of this year, the Fed hinted at a maximum of two rate cuts in 2025—something supported by officials' statements and dot plot projections. Now, partly due to Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies, labor market conditions are showing strain. As a result, the Fed has been forced to adopt a much more dovish tone than initially expected. One rate cut has already been implemented, and two additional reductions are likely before the year ends. We believe that the Fed has turned more dovish overall, not less, despite what select analysts may claim. Moreover, it is incorrect to view the Fed's path in isolation. The ECB has completed its easing cycle, and the Bank of England is likely to pause indefinitely as inflation remains nearly double the 2% target. This leaves the Fed as the only major central bank expected to ease policy further—a far more significant factor than speculation over the "tone" of its trajectory. By virtually any measure, the dollar remains under pressure. Of course, no one can predict the future with certainty. Market makers operate on their own timelines and may at times act contrary to logic or headline data. Therefore, we don't claim GBP/USD will rise endlessly in the coming years—but current conditions signal that further pound strength is far more likely than not. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 78 pips, classified as "average" for this asset. On Monday, October 20, we expect the pair to trade within the range of 1.3346 to 1.3502. The long-term linear regression channel points upward, confirming a bullish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone three times recently, strengthening the odds of a renewed upward move. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3428 S2 – 1.3367 S3 – 1.3306 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3489 R2 – 1.3550 R3 – 1.3611 Trading Recommendations:GBP/USD is attempting to resume its 2025 bullish trend, and the pair's long-term outlook remains intact. Trump's policies will continue to weigh on the dollar, so we are not anticipating an extended recovery for the U.S. currency. As a result, long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain preferable as long as the price holds above the moving average. If the price falls below the moving average, technical setups would support short positions targeting 1.3306 and 1.3245. The dollar may continue to post minor corrections, but a sustained bullish reversal will require resolution of the trade war or another broadly positive shift in global risk sentiment and economic fundamentals. Explanation of Chart Elements:Linear regression channels help identify the current trend direction. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.The moving average line (20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the preferable direction for trading.Murray levels represent projected support/resistance zones for trend continuation or correction.Volatility levels (red lines) suggest the expected price range for the next 24 hours based on current volatility measures.CCI indicator: values below –250 (oversold) or above +250 (overbought) signal a potential reversal or trend shift.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a relatively unexpected decline toward the moving average on Friday. From a technical standpoint, there was nothing extraordinary about this move—it was a routine correction. If sellers manage to hold the price below the moving average, the trend may shift back to bearish, though even that would likely have no long-term implications. This is all about the daily timeframe. The "Trump Trend" began earlier this year, placing us firmly in a medium-term outlook. It's on higher timeframes like the 24-hour chart that the picture becomes clear: we are in a strong uptrend that has, over time, transitioned into a broad sideways range—or flat market. This flat phase represents an accumulation or distribution period for large players. In simpler terms, the market has been preparing for a new trend for several months already, and most of the short-term movements we're seeing are mere market noise within that broader consolidation. It's important to remember that during flat phases, significant reasons aren't necessarily required for the price to move in either direction. Our view is that the market is currently accumulating negative factors related to the U.S. dollar, preparing to price them in all at once. At present, there is no real support for the dollar stemming from fundamental news. We don't believe the dollar's recent bullish episodes are due to the Federal Reserve's "not-too-dovish" stance or Trump's ever-changing rhetoric. On Friday, the U.S. dollar gained modestly, and many analysts quickly pointed to "easing trade tensions" with China. But let's not forget: Trump has, in recent months, imposed a new round of tariffs—affecting goods like trucks, medical supplies, and furniture. Tariffs on Indian imports have increased to 50%, and Chinese products now face 100% tariffs. Is this what analysts call "de-escalation" or "reduced trade tension"? Even if the U.S. and China reach another temporary agreement in November, that won't spell the end of the trade war. Next month, Trump could again declare "unfair treatment" and impose new tariffs—this cycle could continue indefinitely. Markets will continue reacting to this formidable factor. However, it's worth noting that the market moves according to defined algorithms and patterns. To initiate a new long-term trend, time is needed for institutional players to build the necessary volume. Retail traders with small positions can buy or sell quickly, but large banks and institutions can't move billions in and out of positions overnight. Therefore, we continue to expect further weakening of the U.S. dollar. The current correction may last a few more weeks or months, but the overall outcome still looks evident. The average volatility for EUR/USD over the past five trading days stands at 65 pips as of October 20, considered "average." For Monday, we expect movement within the 1.1588 to 1.1719 range. The long-term linear regression channel remains upward-sloping, indicating that the broader trend remains intact. The CCI indicator recently entered oversold territory, which could trigger a new upward wave. Nearest Support Levels:S1: 1.1658S2: 1.1597S3: 1.1536Nearest Resistance Levels:R1: 1.1719R2: 1.1780R3: 1.1841Trading Recommendations:EUR/USD is attempting to establish a new uptrend on the 4-hour chart, while the longer timeframes continue to show a bullish market. U.S. dollar dynamics remain driven mainly by Donald Trump's policies and anti-global rhetoric. Although the dollar has shown short-term strength recently, these episodes are rooted in fragile reasoning. The flat movement on the daily chart fully supports this view. If the price stays below the moving average, short-term short positions can be considered with a target near 1.1536, based purely on technical conditions. If the price remains above the moving average, long positions remain valid toward 1.1841 and possibly 1.1902 in continuation of the broader trend. Explanation of Chart Elements:Linear regression channels help identify the current trend direction. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.The moving average line (20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the preferable direction for trading.Murray levels represent projected support/resistance zones for trend continuation or correction.Volatility levels (red lines) suggest the expected price range for the next 24 hours based on current volatility measures.CCI indicator: values below –250 (oversold) or above +250 (overbought) signal a potential reversal or trend shift.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a minor pullback, but by the end of the day, it had recovered most of its losses. While the euro appears on the verge of canceling a barely-started bullish reversal, the pound remains confidently within its emerging upward trend. Late on Friday, the price bounced off the Senkou Span B line—a critical signal that the market is ready to continue buying. There were no notable macroeconomic events on Friday. Therefore, we continue to expect more upward movement from the British pound. None of the global fundamentals support the U.S. dollar at this point. The situation for the greenback continues to deteriorate each week: Trump keeps introducing and raising tariffs, the Federal Reserve prepares for two or three rounds of monetary easing, the Bank of England has paused its policy changes indefinitely, and the U.S. government shutdown is ongoing and may break historical records in duration. On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday generated a fair number of signals—most of which turned out to be false. Traders had a chance to work with the first two, both near the 1.3420 level. The price initially bounced off this area and then broke through it. However, in both cases, the price failed to follow through as expected. Later in the day, a clean bounce from the Senkou Span B line offered a recovery opportunity, which helped offset early trade losses. COT Report COT (Commitment of Traders) reports for the British pound continue to show fluctuations in trader sentiment. The red and blue lines representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders have been crossing frequently, usually hovering around the zero line. Currently, they're nearly equal, indicating a roughly balanced number of long and short positions. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken under Donald Trump's policies, so market makers' demand for the pound becomes secondary. The trade war will likely persist in one form or another, and the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates into 2025. In this environment, dollar demand will remain soft. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 new BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts, increasing the net long position by 4,600 contracts. The pound has posted substantial gains throughout 2025, but let's be clear: this is mainly due to Trump's influence on the markets. Once that influence fades—or is counterbalanced—the dollar might rebound. But nobody can say precisely when that will happen. Regardless of fluctuations in net positions, dollar positioning continues to fall—typically at a quicker pace than for sterling. GBP/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair has finally ended its downtrend and begun forming a new bullish trend. There are still no fundamental justifications for dollar strength, so we expect the pair to move higher toward the 2025 highs under almost any scenario. The only caveat would be if consolidation on the daily timeframe continues over the next few months. But already now, it's clear: the trade war is intensifying, sentiment is deteriorating, and the Fed is inclined toward policy easing. This all creates a toxic mix for the U.S. dollar. For October 20, important technical levels include: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The key Ichimoku levels are as follows: Senkou Span B at 1.3393 and Kijun-sen at 1.3358. Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven after 20 pips in a favorable direction. Note that Ichimoku lines can shift during the day, so traders should update levels as needed throughout the session. On Monday, there are no notable events outside the U.K. However, the U.S. will release data on Durable Goods Orders. Since much of U.S. macro data is delayed due to the shutdown, this report may generate above-average market response. Trading Recommendations: Today, traders can focus on levels around 1.3420 or the Senkou Span B line. There's sufficient support below, and with few scheduled events, technicals may dominate price action. The pound has begun a recovery, and in the short term, we expect this bullish momentum to extend toward the 1.3533–1.3548 area. Chart Key:Thick red lines: resistance/support levels where price tends to shift direction; not necessarily sources of trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B: Ichimoku lines transferred from the H4 chart to H1, used as strong dynamic support/resistance.Thin red lines: previous swing highs/lows (extremes) that may generate trade signals.Yellow lines: trendlines, channels, and technical patterns used in broader market structure.COT Indicator 1: reflects net position size for each trader group as tracked in the Commitments of Traders report.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Friday, EUR/USD posted a relatively strong downward movement—something that would not be expected from a single macroeconomic report like euro area inflation data. In the previous analysis, we stated that the market was unlikely to react significantly to this release, as the second estimate of inflation rarely moves markets. However, this time the data surprised: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September came in at 2.4% year-over-year, instead of the 2.3% previously reported. What does this mean? Inflation is accelerating, and the European Central Bank clearly won't lower interest rates any time soon. If inflation keeps climbing, the central bank may even consider raising rates once or twice next year. This theoretically improves the euro's outlook by strengthening the ECB's hawkish stance. However, the euro still declined on Friday, despite the data. Traders appeared to ignore the report and instead focused on the shift in tone from Donald Trump. The U.S. dollar found support after Trump backed away from imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports "for now." Essentially, Trump admitted to using tariff threats as a negotiation tool to extract concessions from China. This move helped the dollar strengthen modestly. On the 5-minute chart, EUR/USD only reached key levels late on Friday. No actual trading signals were generated throughout most of the session. A bounce during the U.S. session from the 1.1657–1.1666 area could have been used for opening long positions, but doing so at the end of the trading day would have been risky. COT Report The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report is dated September 23. No further reports have been released due to the U.S. government shutdown. The chart still shows that non-commercial traders have maintained a bullish net position for a long time. Bears briefly gained dominance in late 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump returned to office, the dollar has been consistently weakening. While the current trajectory doesn't guarantee further losses for the dollar, global developments continue to point in that direction. There are still not many reasons to favor euro strength fundamentally, but there are several solid arguments for continued dollar weakness. The global downtrend for the dollar remains intact. Whether the dollar recovers may depend on whether Trump eventually ends his trade wars—but recent events suggest that the conflict will continue in one form or another. The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is yet another significant bearish factor for the greenback. The positions of the red and blue lines on the COT indicator still suggest a bullish bias. During the last reporting week, non-commercial long positions declined by 800,000, while short positions rose by 2,600. The net position fell by 3,400 contracts. However, these figures are now outdated and largely irrelevant. EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the 1-hour timeframe, EUR/USD may have ended its bearish trend two weeks ago. The trendline was broken, the Kijun-sen line was broken, the 1.1604–1.1615 and 1.1657–1.1666 areas were also breached, and even the Senkou Span B line was taken out. All of this supports expectations for further upward movement. We believe it's high time for the euro to begin climbing again, although market participants remain hesitant—for now. For October 20, the following levels are in play: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988. Also watch the Senkou Span B line (1.1661) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1635). Note that Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the trading day, and should be updated when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in your favor—to protect against potential reversals. On Monday, Germany will release the Ifo Business Climate Index (a secondary report), while the U.S. will publish the more significant Durable Goods Orders report. In the absence of higher-impact events, the U.S. release may move the market. Trading Recommendations: On Monday, traders can continue trading from the 1.1651–1.1666 zone. To open long positions toward the target at 1.1750–1.1760, look for a bounce from this area from above. We do not recommend opening short positions at this time, as the overall trend has shifted upward and the price faces multiple layers of support below current levels. Chart Key: Thick red lines: resistance/support levels where price tends to shift direction; not necessarily sources of trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B: Ichimoku lines transferred from the H4 chart to H1, used as strong dynamic support/resistance.Thin red lines: previous swing highs/lows (extremes) that may generate trade signals.Yellow lines: trendlines, channels, and technical patterns used in broader market structure.COT Indicator 1: reflects net position size for each trader group as tracked in the Commitments of Traders report.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin is trading around $107,000 after its recent flash crash, maintaining stability to prevent further decline but is yet to return to trading above $110,000. Notably, popular crypto analyst Titan of Crypto shared a detailed Gaussian Channel analysis on X that points to Bitcoin’s macro bull structure remaining intact despite short-term volatility. His post, which was accompanied by a Bitcoin price chart, shows how Bitcoin’s position relative to the Gaussian Channel offers a clear view of the ongoing cycle. Bull Market Intact Above Gaussian Channel Titan of Crypto noted that Bitcoin’s placement above the Gaussian Channel represents strength in the long-term trend. As shown in the weekly candlestick price chart below, the green channel corresponds to bullish phases, while red regions represent bearish downturns, a prime example being the 2022 bear market. At the time of writing, the upper band is positioned around $101,300 and trending upward. Therefore, Bitcoin’s price action around $107,000 means that it is yet to break into the Gaussian channel and its overall market structure is still solid. From this, it can be inferred that Bitcoin’s current pullback from the October 6 all-time high above $126,000 is only a temporary pause within a larger bull market. Bitcoin Gaussian Channel. Source: Titan of Crypto on X However, although the Gaussian Channel reading looks favorable, Titan of Crypto noted that the indicator should not be treated as a trading trigger. “It’s not a buy signal, it’s a macro context indicator,” he stated. Being above the Gaussian Channel doesn’t necessarily equate to buying more. It simply means the bull market structure is still intact. The Gaussian Channel works best when combined with other indicators such as trading volume, moving averages, and on-chain accumulation trends to confirm directional momentum. Coinbase Premium Gap Turns Red Speaking of other indicators, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that the Coinbase Premium Gap, a metric comparing Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase versus other exchanges, has turned red. As shown in the chart below, Coinbase’s Premium Gap went on a sharp decline from positive premium levels above +60 earlier in the week to as low as -40 when the Bitcoin price fell to $101,000. Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium Gap Interestingly, the Coinbase Premium Gap has increased to around -10 at the time of writing, meaning US investors are starting to turn bullish again. This can be seen as a bullish signal, as similar dips in US demand were recorded between March and April before the Bitcoin price eventually rallied more than 60% to reach new all-time highs. However, a red Coinbase Premium Gap alone is not decisive. It should be interpreted alongside other data points, including ETF inflows, trading volume, liquidity, and derivatives funding rates. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $107,120. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView

The price performance of Bitcoin over the past two weeks has been a major source of concern, as the coin’s value continues to drift away (about 15% down now) from its all-time high. As the flagship cryptocurrency slows down, the latest on-chain data suggests that a group of investors is exiting the market en masse. More Short-Term Holders Are Giving Up Their Holdings In an October 18 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Darkfost revealed that a significant number of Bitcoin’s short-term investors have started to close their positions and realize their losses. Darkfost’s analysis was hinged on the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, which tracks the net amount (in USD) of profits or losses that are realized on-chain. This metric measures the net profit or loss on a daily basis, averaged, in this case, over seven days. It provides insight into whether more investors are selling at losses or with their heads still above water.. According to the crypto pundit, the realized losses of BTC investors have surged to an approximate level as high as $750 million per day, one of the highest levels this current cycle has seen. Interestingly, Darkfost explained that the magnitude of these capitulation events stands easily comparable to those seen during the 2024 summer correction. What’s worth noting about this capitulation phase is what may likely follow. According to the analyst, events like this usually precede local bottoms. What this means is that after short-term holders (known as the “weak hands”) have surrendered their holdings to the more-confident long-term holders (the “diamond hands”), the cryptocurrency stands a chance of seeing a price rebound — an expectation in congruence with historical trends. However, on the more cautious side, Darkfost offered a subtle warning that the dreary opposite could also be the case in a situation where the market stands at an early bearish phase. Bitcoin Whales Might Be Accumulating Again Supporting the positive redistribution theory, a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform by Abramchart offers a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin market participants. Referencing the Inflows To Accumulation Addresses (Dynamic Cohort) metric, the analyst highlighted a significant inflow of more than 26,500 BTC into whale accumulation wallets. When large amounts of Bitcoin — such as this magnitude — are moved, it usually signals an underlying institutional or whale accumulation, as coins are typically transferred from exchanges to these wallets for long-term holding. Following historical patterns, it is very likely that this accumulation event will precede a continued bullish expansion of the flagship cryptocurrency. As Abramchart explained, this trend all serves as a hint that smart money is “quietly buying the dip.” As of this writing, Bitcoin holds a valuation of about $106,870, with no significant movement seen over the past 24 hours.

The EUR/USD pair finds itself at a crossroads amid conflicting fundamental signals. For the past two weeks, buyers have repeatedly attempted to settle the price in the 1.17 area, while sellers have defended the 1.15 zone. However, the pair has finished the past two Fridays near the middle of this range—levels like 1.1622 and 1.1653—essentially hovering within a broad channel, reacting only to strong news impulses without committing to a clear directional move. The cause? A contradictory flow of information—a bearish one offsets every bullish factor. For example, last week Jerome Powell pressured the dollar with dovish rhetoric, while Donald Trump supported the greenback by announcing new trade talks with China. Although trade negotiations shouldn't technically offset the Fed's monetary easing process, the market treats them as competing narratives. Traders shift their sentiment easily—from Fed dovishness to Trump's trade optimism. Just yesterday, the dollar was the market's underdog. Now, it's suddenly a favorite again—despite the Fed maintaining its soft stance and ultra-dovish expectations continuing to grow. Is the dollar's recent strength justified? In my opinion, no. If only because Trump has changed his posture on China several times in a single month—oscillating between escalation threats and peacemaking statements. Additionally, real policy actions point toward ongoing trade tensions. Last week's mutual increase in port duties by both China and the U.S. remains in effect. On October 14, China imposed sanctions on several U.S. shipbuilding companies, including five subsidiaries of Hanwha Shipping. Another sign of heightened confrontation: China broke the fragile trade truce by announcing new restrictions on the export of rare-earth minerals. If these rules take effect on December 1, companies wishing to export minerals from China will not only need government approval but also must disclose intended usage. These materials play a key role in manufacturing advanced tech, including military equipment like U.S. fighter jets. Beijing has made it clear that licenses will only be granted if the minerals are destined for civilian purposes. With its near-monopoly on the supply of rare-earth elements, China has raised the stakes ahead of the upcoming talks. Given this strong bargaining chip, it's unlikely Beijing would accept tariff rollbacks alone as a compromise. Therefore, Trump is unlikely to conduct these negotiations easily. In other words, the prospect of de-escalation between China and the U.S. depends not on Washington's gestures, but on Beijing's—and so far, China has not taken any visible steps in that direction, although it publicly maintains that its doors are open to dialogue. All of this suggests that Trump will likely shift from diplomacy to aggression again soon, putting new pressure on the dollar, primarily since other fundamental factors also work against it. As mentioned earlier, dovish market expectations continue to intensify. By the end of last week, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in October rose to 100%. The odds of another cut in December increased to 94%. Traders now even assign a 6% chance of a 50-point rate cut in December and a 50/50 chance of one more rate cut in January. This spike in dovish sentiment followed recent comments by Fed officials. Powell emphasized signs of labor market cooling and essentially previewed an upcoming rate cut. His colleagues, Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, also voiced support for further monetary easing—Miran advocating for a 50-basis-point rate cut as early as the October meeting. These dovish expectations could either strengthen or weaken in the coming week, depending on Friday's CPI report. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for September is expected to show an acceleration to 3.1% year-over-year (from 2.9%), while core inflation is forecast to remain steady at 3.1%. If the report meets or exceeds expectations, the odds of a December rate cut may decline—and the dollar could gain broader support. Conversely, if the data falls short, "dovish" expectations will intensify, and the greenback may resume its decline. Over the past two weeks, EUR/USD has been trading within a wide range between 1.1550 and 1.1730 (Bollinger Bands lower boundary and the Kijun-sen line on D1). In my view, the pair is likely to remain in this corridor, reacting impulsively to new market signals. A breakout will require synchronized movement in key fundamental drivers. For example, if Trump returns to aggressive rhetoric against China while U.S. inflation slows, buyers may attempt to push EUR/USD past the 1.1730 target. Alternatively, if China takes conciliatory steps while U.S. inflation comes in hotter than expected, sellers may pull the pair back toward the 1.15 zone. With high uncertainty still in play, the coming week could finally tip the balance and help EUR/USD traders determine the vector of the next major price move. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. economic calendar remains limited due to the ongoing government shutdown. As a result, political developments will take center stage in the coming week. Chief among them is the ongoing budget standoff between Democrats and Republicans—though at the moment, it's clear that there are no real negotiations taking place. Donald Trump's team shows no desire to reach a compromise with the opposition, instead applying pressure by threatening mass layoffs of government employees and shutting down key programs initiated by Democrats. In essence, Trump remains true to form—avoiding compromise and continuing to issue ultimatums. Over the weekend, new mass protests erupted across the United States in opposition to Trump's policies. In several cities, the demonstrations escalated into violent clashes with police. Social tensions are rising sharply within the U.S. Meanwhile, tensions are also escalating between the U.S. and China. Trump has pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese imports if Beijing doesn't scale back its tightening of rare-earth export controls. So far, China has not reversed its course. Trump has since walked back parts of his threat—but officially, the tariff decision still stands. From an economic data standpoint, the coming week offers only a few notable reports. Among them are existing home sales, inflation figures, business activity indexes, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Clearly, the most important of these will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation in the U.S. is expected to climb to 3.1% in September. If confirmed, this could lend noticeable support to the U.S. dollar by reducing the likelihood of a dovish monetary policy path from the Federal Reserve. Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:Based on the current wave analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave structure remains heavily influenced by news flows, particularly related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the new White House administration. The target zone for this trend could extend toward the 1.25 area. At present, the market appears to be forming corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion. This structure is particularly long and complex, but still fits the overall bullish trend shape. Consequently, I continue to view buying opportunities as more favorable. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. The pair remains within a bullish impulse wave, but the internal layout has become more complex. Wave 4 is developing into a three-wave corrective pattern that is significantly longer than wave 2. The most recent downward three-wave correction appears to be complete. If confirmed, the upward movement within the global wave structure is likely to resume. Initial targets remain at 1.3800 and 1.4000. As always, price action should be confirmed by technical signals and key levels, but these wave structures provide a broader framework for medium-term trend direction. Key Principles of This Wave Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and are more likely to shift.If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out.There is never absolute certainty in market direction. Always use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other tools and trading strategies for a comprehensive approach.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The upcoming U.K. economic data will be relatively scarce, but one report in particular could lend significant support to the British pound. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September will be published. As highlighted in recent commentary, inflation in the U.K. has been running nearly double the Bank of England's (BoE) target for some time now—and next week it could officially surpass that benchmark twofold. Annual CPI is expected to rise by another 0.2%, reaching 4.0% year-over-year. Core inflation may increase to 3.7%. This single report could lead the BoE to abandon any remaining plans for a rate cut before year-end. Though some economists still expect one more round of monetary easing due to rising unemployment and a cooling labor market, the case for holding rates—or even taking a more cautious stance—is growing stronger. Inflation in the U.K. has been rising steadily for more than a year. Therefore, there is no seasonal spike or short-term reaction to external shocks such as the trade war. It is a sustained trend. If the BoE continues to ease policy in this environment, inflation could climb to 5–6%, which would be highly problematic. Aside from the CPI report, the week's other notable events include the retail sales report and the release of manufacturing and services PMI figures on Friday. As of now, there are no forecasts available for the PMI numbers. Retail sales are expected to show a month-over-month decline. In my view, only the inflation report deserves close attention at this moment. In the U.S., there will be very few data releases due to the ongoing government shutdown. Throughout 2025, it has primarily been U.S. events and data driving market movement. Now, key reports are delayed by the shutdown, which shifts the market's focus to political and geopolitical developments. The U.S. dollar is currently contending with a wide range of challenges. As soon as the market fully prices in these risks, demand for the dollar is likely to weaken again. Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:Based on the current wave analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave structure remains heavily influenced by news flows, particularly related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the new White House administration. The target zone for this trend could extend toward the 1.25 area. At present, the market appears to be forming corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion. This structure is particularly long and complex, but still fits the overall bullish trend shape. Consequently, I continue to view buying opportunities as more favorable. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. The pair remains within a bullish impulse wave, but the internal layout has become more complex. Wave 4 is developing into a three-wave corrective pattern that is significantly longer than wave 2. The most recent downward three-wave correction appears to be complete. If confirmed, the upward movement within the global wave structure is likely to resume. Initial targets remain at 1.3800 and 1.4000. As always, price action should be confirmed by technical signals and key levels, but these wave structures provide a broader framework for medium-term trend direction. Key Principles of This Wave Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and are more likely to shift.If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out.There is never absolute certainty in market direction. Always use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other tools and trading strategies for a comprehensive approach.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The upcoming week is unlikely to be notable or significant for the euro. Throughout 2025, the euro has simply been drifting with the tide. The dominant driver of the market remains the U.S. dollar—it's the dollar that rises or falls, while other currencies largely move in response. At present, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. Wave structure analysis continues to show nothing more than corrective three-wave patterns that provide little clarity, as any corrective structure can extend or evolve at any moment. Currently, a downward three-wave pattern has formed, which could indicate the beginning of an upward mirror structure. However, confidence in such a scenario is low. The key issue is that the market has more than enough reasons to continue selling off the U.S. dollar—but it hasn't been doing so for several weeks. Consequently, if the news flow isn't materially influencing investor sentiment, euro weakness may persist. In the eurozone next week, the most notable events will be two speeches from Christine Lagarde and the release of the October purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the services and manufacturing sectors. It's unlikely that Lagarde will present any new, meaningful developments, though Friday's slightly hotter-than-expected inflation reading might prompt her to comment. But what would that mean for the euro? In essence, not much. The European Central Bank has already ended its rate-cutting cycle, and higher inflation makes further easing even less likely. On the other hand, there's still no reason to consider tightening—too little time has passed, and the rise in inflation remains modest. Thus, the PMIs released on Friday will likely be the most relevant reports of the week, but no dramatic surprises are expected. As a result, no major market moves are anticipated either. Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:Based on the current wave analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave structure remains heavily influenced by news flows, particularly related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the new White House administration. The target zone for this trend could extend toward the 1.25 area. At present, the market appears to be forming corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion. This structure is particularly long and complex, but still fits the overall bullish trend shape. Consequently, I continue to view buying opportunities as more favorable. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. The pair remains within a bullish impulse wave, but the internal layout has become more complex. Wave 4 is developing into a three-wave corrective pattern that is significantly longer than wave 2. The most recent downward three-wave correction appears to be complete. If confirmed, the upward movement within the global wave structure is likely to resume. Initial targets remain at 1.3800 and 1.4000. As always, price action should be confirmed by technical signals and key levels, but these wave structures provide a broader framework for medium-term trend direction. Key Principles of This Wave Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and are more likely to shift.If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out.There is never absolute certainty in market direction. Always use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other tools and trading strategies for a comprehensive approach.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Saturday, October 18, a new wave of protests swept across the United States. Millions of Americans took to the streets in cities across the country under the slogan "No kings," demonstrating against the policies of President Donald Trump. In the ninth month of what Trump calls "the greatest presidency in history"—the one that has supposedly "ended nine wars" and "restored the U.S. economy"—many Americans believe democracy has been destroyed, and that Trump is laying the foundations of a new autocratic regime. Protesters voiced opposition to the political persecution of Trump's opponents, as well as the militarization of immigration enforcement, an effort that increasingly involves federal troops and the National Guard. In response to the protests—which began as peaceful demonstrations—Trump has deployed even more troops to American cities. But peace was short-lived. As of this morning, the protests have escalated into mass unrest and violent street clashes. Police are firing at demonstrators (hopefully with rubber bullets), and tear gas has been deployed. This marks the third major wave of demonstrations since Trump returned to office. Americans are fiercely criticizing his actions, arguing that his governance undermines the integrity of both Congress and the judiciary. Despite the national turmoil, Trump spent the night attending a charity gala at one of his private clubs, where entry cost $1 million per ticket. This is not the first instance in which Trump has monetized personal face time with attendees, selling seats at his table for hundreds of thousands of dollars. It's also worth noting the scale of public opposition. The first major anti-Trump protest, which was also aimed at Elon Musk—who had become entangled in Trump's administration—occurred at 1,300 locations. The second demonstration took place at 2,100 sites. Yesterday's protests expanded to 2,700 different venues across the country. All this leads to one clear conclusion: America is rising up against Trump, his authoritarian methods, and his imperial ambitions. Americans want to live in a country where democracy isn't an empty word and where the president doesn't break the law with impunity, week after week. The people's protests are understandable—they are demanding the restoration of lawful, democratic governance. If blame is to be placed, it rests with the voters' own decision one year ago. Trump didn't take office by force. Many were dissatisfied with the perceived indecisiveness of Joe Biden. So now, they have something new—a version of "fun" that the nation is unlikely to forget for decades to come. Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:Based on the current wave analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave structure remains heavily influenced by news flows, particularly related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the new White House administration. The target zone for this trend could extend toward the 1.25 area. At present, the market appears to be forming corrective wave 4, which is nearing completion. This structure is particularly long and complex, but still fits the overall bullish trend shape. Consequently, I continue to view buying opportunities as more favorable. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. The pair remains within a bullish impulse wave, but the internal layout has become more complex. Wave 4 is developing into a three-wave corrective pattern that is significantly longer than wave 2. The most recent downward three-wave correction appears to be complete. If confirmed, the upward movement within the global wave structure is likely to resume. Initial targets remain at 1.3800 and 1.4000. As always, price action should be confirmed by technical signals and key levels, but these wave structures provide a broader framework for medium-term trend direction. Key Principles of This Wave Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and are more likely to shift.If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out.There is never absolute certainty in market direction. Always use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other tools and trading strategies for a comprehensive approach.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com