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How Smart Trading Bots Adapt to Shifting Market Conditions EUR/USD in Transition: How Smart Trading Bots Adapt to Shifting Market Conditions Few currency pairs respond as sharply, or as inconsistently, to shifting global narratives as EUR/USD. Over the past two years, it’s moved through cycles of breakout rallies, grinding consolidations, and policy-fueled whiplash. Traders navigating uncertainty. What worked one quarter falls flat the next. Staying consistent in that environment means more than reacting quickly. It means reading structure, spotting transitions early, and executing without hesitation. That’s where modern trading systems, from AI-driven bots to rule-based automation, have stepped in to fill the gap. A Market in Flux Throughout recent quarters, EUR/USD has gone through several phases of sharp movement and confusing stasis. The dollar surged as the Fed stuck with a hawkish tone, but that momentum didn’t hold indefinitely. Markets began pricing in peak rate expectations, followed by speculation around cuts. Meanwhile, the ECB walked a fine line, raising rates slowly while trying to keep European growth from stalling. As a result, traders saw a mix of high-volatility spikes around data releases, interspersed with sluggish consolidation. That whipsaw between movement and indecision made it tough to stay consistent. Strategies based purely on breakout indicators or lagging averages often entered too late or exited too early. The market wasn’t giving clean signals, and that’s when structure matters most. What Smarter Systems Bring to the Table In these kinds of market conditions, traders face two main problems: hesitation and overreaction. Bots don’t suffer from either. They’re programmed to act based on the strategy. Trading systems are designed for exactly that. Some prioritize pattern recognition to anticipate shifts, others rely on momentum and rule-based logic to respond decisively in real time. The goal is consistency, even when the market isn’t offering much of it. Further down, we’ll look at two such tools, each taking a different approach to adapting in this kind of environment. Pattern Recognition for the Bigger Picture Some of today’s more advanced trading systems use pattern recognition to anticipate changes in market structure. Rather than reacting to what’s already happened, these tools analyze price behavior in real time and compare it to historical formations, looking for signs that a breakout, reversal, or continuation is starting to take shape. This kind of predictive logic can be especially effective in transitional periods. When a pair like EUR/USD moves from expansion to consolidation, or from range to trend. It helps traders align with price flow early, rather than jumping in after the move is already underway. ForexVIM is one such system. It applies AI-driven pattern recognition to evaluate narrowing price action, assess breakout potential, and provide structured trade entries with minimal delay. Its design encourages discipline and timing, two qualities that are often hardest to maintain when market direction isn’t obvious. Rule-Based Precision for the Active Trader Not all systems aim to predict market behavior. Some are designed to respond with speed and structure to what’s happening in the moment. These rule-based strategies focus on identifying key technical conditions and responding the moment they appear, making them effective in fast-moving environments like EUR/USD. Instead of relying on prediction, they operate on clearly defined logic: enter when conditions align, step back when they don’t. This helps filter out noise and avoid the kind of overtrading that often comes with uncertainty. ForexIGO follows this approach. Built for MetaTrader 4, it delivers real-time execution through structured, reactive logic. It’s designed to stay out of the way when the market’s unclear, and step in when the signals are solid. Structure Outperforms Emotion in Mixed Conditions One of the main advantages bots bring to uncertain markets is that they don’t hesitate. There’s no emotional baggage. They’re not afraid to take a trade after a loss or hold back because of what the ECB president might say. They simply follow the plan, whether that means entering a breakout or skipping a setup because the momentum doesn’t meet criteria. This is especially valuable in rangebound phases, where traders often get frustrated and start taking low-quality trades. Bots don’t force entries. They wait for alignment. More importantly, they execute at the speed the market demands. In a pair as active as EUR/USD, the delay between spotting a setup and acting on it can be the difference between a profit and a missed opportunity. The Best of Both Worlds: Human Judgment + Machine Discipline No system is perfect, and automation isn’t meant to replace traders entirely. Trading bots can’t interpret macro sentiment or react to a surprise headline. But they don’t need to. Their strength is in consistent execution, something even experienced traders can struggle with during volatile periods. That’s why many traders now lean on hybrid setups. They handle the bigger-picture thinking, like reading policy shifts or timing news risk, while leaving the technical entries and risk rules to automation. This blend of insight and structure helps remove the emotional pitfalls that come with fast markets. Final Thoughts EUR/USD isn’t offering clean signals these days. Between central bank noise, shifting sentiment, and choppy price action, the market keeps traders guessing. Staying consistent in that environment takes more than instinct. When the chart’s a mess and confidence slips, structure is what keeps you steady.

Bitcoin briefly slid to $98,974 late on Sunday after US airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities. That was its weakest point since early May. But by Monday morning in Asia, the leading cryptocurrency topped $101,000 again. Traders are weighing whether this was just a hiccup or the start of a fresh trend. Arthur Hayes Sees Temporary Weakness According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, the fall is only a short pause. On X, he wrote that “weakness shall pass” and predicted Bitcoin will “leave no doubt as to its safe haven status.” He said fresh money printing by central banks will be the main force driving prices back up. His view suggests that big dips can turn into buying chances when broader liquidity is rising. Market Dips On Geopolitical News Based on reports, it was US strikes on Iran that triggered the initial slide. The price drop happened late Sunday, pushing Bitcoin below six figures for the first time since early May. Yet buyers stepped in quickly, snapping up coins and lifting the price back above $101,000 during the first hours of trading in Asia. That pattern shows how headline shocks can spark fast moves, but also how quickly sentiment can flip. Altcoins Take A Hit Meanwhile, over the past 12 hours, most altcoins fell about 1.4%, dragging total crypto market cap down by roughly $50 billion to $3.20 trillion, according to data. Experts expect that trend to reverse once major headlines calm down. Market analysts pointed out that altcoins might start to outperform if macro risks ease. They said smaller tokens are already showing signs of strength, even as Bitcoin stalls. Key Technical Levels Hold Traders are watching two key lines: the short-term realized price at $98,000 and the trend support at $102,000. The realized price reflects the average breakeven point for holders, so it often acts like a floor. The $102,000 has capped rallies over the past weeks. As long as Bitcoin stays in that $98,000–$102,000 range, there are chances for quick rallies. But a break below $98,000 could force more focus on cutting losses. Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView

With Bitcoin precariously recovering above the $100,000 mark and altcoins bleeding momentum, traders are asking the obvious: Is the crypto bull run over? According to systematic trader Adam Bakay (@abetrade), the answer is not so clear-cut. In a detailed market breakdown posted June 22, Bakay offered a technically grounded, cautiously defensive assessment—one that acknowledges geopolitical risks but stays rooted in positioning and price structure. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? “Looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes, we are still technically in an uptrend,” Bakay wrote, noting that “no key swing low was broken, and the 365-day rolling VWAP has been respected during the pullback in April.” Despite this, he admits that “the failure to make new all-time highs similar to the top in 2021” is a concern—especially given the accumulation by players like BlackRock, which now holds around 3.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. It’s that divergence—between strong institutional interest and a market struggling to break higher—that has made Bakay more cautious in recent weeks. “This is why I have been very defensive and kept most of my trades short-term,” he said. His trading view focuses on two potential technical scenarios: either a reclaim of the $100,000 support area—“likely if the conflict in the Middle East does not further escalate”—or a dip into the $97,000–$95,000 range, where strong technical support resides in the form of the 200-day moving average, local price structure, and the 90-day rolling VWAP. Still, Bakay made it clear he’s not shorting the market. “I am not currently considering any short trades due to my current positioning,” he emphasized, adding that open interest is dropping and that we are starting to see the “first signs of clear spot bid interest since the April lows.” The options market, meanwhile, is flashing early caution: the 25-delta risk reversal skew sits around -5, not yet at panic levels, but trending more negative. Crypto Bull Run In Jeopardy On Ethereum, Bakay was notably blunt. “ETH almost had its moment, but of course had to become a disappointment,” he said. He attributes the failed breakout in part to how quickly the “DeFi Summer 2025” narrative went viral. “People are getting too horny, and market made sure to punish them,” he noted, referencing his own tweet from a few days earlier. The technical picture on ETH doesn’t inspire confidence either. “During significant market moves, like we had at the beginning of May, the last thing you want to see is price retracing throughout that area,” he explained, saying the next meaningful support lies near $1,800. On the daily chart, Ethereum is sitting right at a confluence of support—both the 90-day rolling VWAP and what he calls a “pivotal level.” Still, much like Bitcoin, Bakay sees Ethereum’s short-term fate as largely dependent on developments in the Middle East. On positioning, ETH also shows signs of an oversold environment, though Bakay believes high volatility in ETH options has caused traders to use spreads instead of outright directional bets. “Positioning is now very clearly pointing towards the possible upside reversal in both perpetual and spot,” he said. Altcoins received no reprieve. “Altcoins have not been having fun for quite a while,” Bakay wrote, pointing out that “every time it starts to look better, it will almost immediately get worse.” He notes that the expected rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins hasn’t materialized, and the real rotation now seems to be into crypto-related equities, which better reflect the ETF-driven macro trade. Even strong names like Solana are fading. “SOL has almost retraced the entire rally from April,” he warned. The key level to watch is $100. “There is not much of a technical support sub-$100,” and if “shit hits the fan,” Bakay would look to bid around that round number. Bakay also briefly touched on two newer altcoins—Hype and Fartcoin—saying one offers a solid product and the other draws interest through volatility and liquidity. “Fartcoin would become attractive if it could reclaim the $1 or $0.50 area. Hype could find a bounce sub-$30.” His closing thoughts were pragmatic: “We are not in easy market conditions, with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, and markets can be significantly affected by a single news release.” While he believes the market may be “getting too short at the moment,” he remains highly conscious of the possibility that a multi-month correction is already in play. “I don’t think there is a need to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife,” he concluded. “I would much rather wait for some positive news and signs of lower timeframe reversals.” In essence, Bakay doesn’t call the top. But his post makes one thing clear: this is not a market for bravado. It’s a time for restraint, tight risk management, and respect for volatility—especially when the bullish case no longer has momentum on its side. At press time, BTC traded at $101,847.

Cobalt futures prices in China surged to levels last seen mid-March on Monday after the Democratic Republic of Congo extended its concentrate export ban first instituted in February. In a surprise move Congo, responsible for more than 80% of global output, stretched the export restrictions for the electric vehicle battery material by another three months taking more than 100,000 tonnes off the market over the seven month period by some estimates. The most active cobalt futures on China’s Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange surged over 9% to 254 yuan or $35.34 per kilogram, the highest since March 14. A surge in supply from the Congo, where cobalt is a byproduct of copper mining, coupled with tepid demand from the EV market which overtook aviation and aerospace as the number one source of demand several years ago, saw cobalt prices fall to record lows in January this year on an inflation adjusted basis. CMOC Group (SHA: 603993), the top cobalt miner, told Reuters the ban won’t significantly affect operations at its Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines in Congo. Earlier in June, Cobalt Holdings dropped plans for an initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange, dashing investor hopes of what would’ve been the exchange’s biggest mining IPO since 2022. The company previously aimed to raise as much as $230 million through the offering and use most of the funds to buy 6,000 tonnes of physical cobalt from Glencore (LON: GLEN) at a discount. Glencore, the world’s second largest cobalt producer, declared force majeure on some cobalt deliveries days after the export suspension. Cobalt sulphate entering the EV battery supply chain in China fall to an average of just $3,556 per tonne in January, but shot up by 80% after the ban to average $6,394 in May. When Monday’s gap higher filters through to the physical sulphate market cobalt would still be trading nowhere near its peak of $19,000 a tonne in 2022. Cobalt byproduct output is also increasing in Indonesia as its nickel shipments ballooned and the DRC was said to be in talks with the Asian nation to collaborate on managing supply of cobalt including the use of quotas.

With the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, many keen investors have turned to investing in crude oil, hoping for a surge due to the Strait of Hormuz being on the brink of closure. However, 30 minutes into trading, oil prices were only up by 3%. Over 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and if it is indeed closed at any point, oil prices would likely spike. Many investors are eyeing $100 per barrel, a level that hasn’t been seen since July 2022. Oil Prices Slow To React To The Ongoing Conflict In The Middle East While many were expecting oil prices to spike on opening at 6 pm ET, just 30 minutes into trading, oil was up by barely 3%, following the US military’s overnight strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday. This type of attack, coupled with the continuous threat that the Strait of Hormuz will close at any time, has led many investors to buy crude oil stocks in anticipation of a huge upside move. However, at 6:27 p.m. ET on June 22, Brent crude was trading up 3.17% at $79.45 per barrel, while the US crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was trading up $3.18 at $76.19 per barrel during the early New York trading session. Previous incidents of this level have triggered far bigger moves in crude markets. A few examples include when Iran-linked militants struck Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility in September 2019, temporarily halting 5% of global oil output, Brent futures spiked nearly 20% in a single day, marking the largest one-day price jump in history. DISCOVER: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now Another such event came following the US drone strike on Iranian Military Officer Qassem Soleimani in early 2020, prices surged a around 4% amid fears of regional retaliation. Today’s lukewarm response further highlights how much more insulated markets have become from geopolitical events. The coordinated US airstrikes hit Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan overnight, inflicting visible damage on enrichment and research infrastructure. Tehran has promised retaliation, but energy markets are betting that escalation remains limited. President Trump had announced that all three nuclear sites had been completely wiped out; however, it has since come out that Fordow wasn’t destroyed, and the Iranians may have even moved the Uranium deposits before the attack. No significant move in oil prices will likely come until the Iranians decide on the Strait of Hormuz. If they decide to disrupt or close the Strait, barrels of crude oil could run toward $100, a price not seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. Oil Not Spiking Like Many Believed As Bitcoin Reclaims $100,000 – Is BTC The WW3 Hedge? (COINGECKO) Late yesterday, Bitcoin dropped to $98,500, leading many to believe that a slide toward $80,000-85,000 was coming. However, less than two hours later, BTC quickly reclaimed $100,000, and is now trading at $101,900. This continued strength from Bitcoin, compared to Oil prices not reacting reasonably as market participants had assumed they would, is making the leading digital asset stand out as a go-to investment during this period of conflict in the Middle East. Previously, Iran and Israel entering heavy conflict against one another, with the added caveat of the US getting involved, would’ve acted as a black swan event in crypto, and Bitcoin would have crashed, dragging the rest of the market with it. However, BTC’s refusal to settle below $100,000 is incredibly bullish, which is also buoyed by BlackRock’s continuing to post positive net inflows into its Bitcoin ETF. Other asset managers, such as Fidelity, have also been experiencing healthy inflows into their own BTC ETF. Another signal that Bitcoin is the leading investment asset right now is the continued rise of BTC dominance (BTC.D), which measures its share of the total crypto market cap. As most altcoins continue to bleed and Bitcoin holds steady, BTC.D has risen from 64.8% to 65.8% in the last three days alone. (TRADINGVIEW) While the rise of BTC.D highlights the weakness in altcoins right now, it also demonstrates the strength of Bitcoin and its newfound status as a hedge on the pending war. All eyes will now be on the US TradFi markets opening today and any fresh announcement from President Trump on the US’s plans regarding the Israel/Iran conflict. There is optimism that the conflict could be drawing to a close after no reported missile attacks from Iran overnight and Israel stating they do not wish to be drawn into a war of attrition. Any news of a ceasefire or outright end to this bloody conflict in the Middle East will likely see a huge surge across the crypto market, which could catapult Bitcoin to fresh highs, finally turning the $110,000 level into support before beginning the long-awaited run toward $150,000. EXPLORE: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Are Oil Prices Set to Skyrocket Over Iran-Israel Conflict: What Does This Mean For Bitcoin Price in June? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

✴️ CZ: "Tudo antes do próximo topo histórico do Bitcoin é, por definição, uma correção" Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado | ExpertFX School Atualizado em 23 de junho de 2025 💬 Declaração do ex-CEO da Binance reforça otimismo de longo prazo Changpeng Zhao, conhecido como CZ — ex-CEO da Binance e uma das figuras mais influentes do setor cripto — voltou a fortalecer a narrativa de longo prazo para o Bitcoin ao afirmar: Em um momento onde o Bitcoin já ultrapassa a marca dos US$ 101.996,00, a declaração visa normalizar movimentos de consolidação e volatilidade como parte natural do ciclo de alta — especialmente num contexto de crescente adoção institucional. 📊 Bitcoin em nova estrutura de preço: o que esperar? Com o BTC sendo negociado acima de US$ 100 mil, o mercado entra em uma nova zona técnica e psicológica de precificação. O rompimento definitivo da barreira dos US$ 100.000 representa mais que um número simbólico — ele confirma a maturação do ativo como reserva de valor global. Aspectos técnicos e fundamentais relevantes: 🟢 Novo suporte técnico consolidado entre US$ 95.500 e US$ 97.800. 📈 Zona de resistência está agora em torno de US$ 104.200 a US$ 106.500. 🔄 Correções naturais são esperadas, mas o sentimento estrutural de alta permanece intacto. ⚠️ Contexto macro reforça o papel do BTC como ativo antifrágil A atual valorização ocorre num cenário de: 🌍 Conflito geopolítico agudo entre EUA e Irã, com riscos sistêmicos para energia e segurança internacional. 🏦 Desconfiança crescente em relação ao sistema bancário tradicional e à política monetária dos EUA. 📉 Vendas contínuas de Treasuries por países como China e Rússia, favorecendo o ouro e o Bitcoin como reservas alternativas. Com isso, o BTC segue se consolidando como instrumento de proteção contra riscos políticos, monetários e sistêmicos globais. 🔮 Perspectivas futuras para traders e investidores Mesmo em patamares elevados, o BTC ainda não entrou em "modo eufórico". A estrutura institucional atual sugere espaço para movimentos adicionais no médio prazo: 📌 Próximo alvo técnico em US$ 112.800, com potencial extensão até US$ 120.000. 🔁 Correções podem ocorrer até a faixa de US$ 96.000, sem alterar o viés estrutural. 🔎 O fluxo de stablecoins e o comportamento on-chain sugerem que grandes players ainda não realizaram posições significativas. 💬 Opinião do analista – Igor Pereira 📡 Acompanhe a ExpertFX School para atualizações diárias sobre o Bitcoin, o ouro, os principais mercados e o impacto dos eventos geopolíticos no comportamento dos ativos. Autor: Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado Financeiro | Membro Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Desde 2017

💥 S&P 500 apaga completamente “gap iraniano” e volta ao patamar pré-ataque dos EUA ao Irã Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado | ExpertFX School Atualizado em 23 de junho de 2025 📈 Futuros do S&P 500 ignoram risco geopolítico e recuperam nível pré-bombardeio Os contratos futuros do índice S&P 500 — principal termômetro do mercado acionário norte-americano — fecharam completamente o gap de baixa provocado pelos bombardeios norte-americanos contra as instalações nucleares iranianas, recuperando-se até o nível de fechamento da sexta-feira anterior ao ataque. 🕊 O que isso indica? Reação técnica ou confiança no controle da narrativa? A rápida reversão nos preços pode ser explicada por três pilares: Alívio tático – Após a confirmação de que o ataque foi "limitado" e direcionado, sem vítimas civis, o mercado reavaliou o cenário como conflito pontual e não regional. Narrativa de força – A fala de Trump, ao afirmar que “a missão foi um sucesso total” e que o Irã deve escolher entre paz ou retaliação devastadora, reforçou a ideia de "paz através da força", absorvida como controle geopolítico. Dados macro resilientes – A economia dos EUA segue mostrando força no mercado de trabalho, enquanto os lucros corporativos permanecem sólidos, sustentando a compra institucional. 📌 Impactos no curto prazo: o que observar nos próximos dias? Apesar da recuperação, o cenário segue volátil. Eis os fatores-chave: Retórica iraniana: Ayatollah Khamenei prometeu “danos sem precedentes” aos EUA. Um revide poderia reverter a alta. Eleições e política interna dos EUA: A ala MAGA está dividida sobre o ataque. Críticas internas podem impactar o sentimento de risco. Fluxo para ativos de proteção: Ouro e petróleo ainda apresentam resiliência, sinalizando hedge parcial ainda presente. Volatilidade implícita (VIX): Apesar do alívio, o VIX segue elevado, sugerindo que a complacência ainda não é generalizada. 💬 Opinião do analista – Igor Pereira 📉 Conclusão: a recuperação é real, mas o risco ainda existe O S&P 500 mostra fôlego técnico e otimismo de curto prazo, mas o contexto continua extremamente delicado. Os traders devem: Monitorar falas oficiais do Irã e dos EUA; Avaliar o comportamento dos ativos de refúgio (ouro, dólar, petróleo); Analisar o posicionamento institucional em opções e futuros; Evitar complacência diante de uma possível nova escalada. 📡 Continue acompanhando as atualizações da ExpertFX School para cobertura diária dos mercados, com foco em geopolítica, ouro (XAU/USD), e ações americanas, com leitura técnica, emocional e institucional. Autor: Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado Financeiro | Membro Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Desde 2017

🧠 Comportamento de manada: Santiment alerta para inversão de preços baseada em sentimento de varejo nas criptomoedas Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado | ExpertFX School Atualizado em 23 de junho de 2025 🔍 Análise de Sentimento: o que o varejo está dizendo… e o que o mercado está realmente fazendo A renomada plataforma de análise blockchain Santiment publicou um novo alerta técnico sobre a dinâmica comportamental no mercado de criptoativos. De acordo com o relatório, em meio a um ambiente carregado de incertezas macroeconômicas, geopolíticas e dúvidas sobre a sustentabilidade dos ciclos de alta, os preços das criptomoedas seguem inversamente proporcionais ao sentimento majoritário do varejo. Este padrão é consistente com estratégias institucionais baseadas em "contrarian trading" — onde grandes players operam contra a multidão, utilizando dados de sentimento extraídos de redes sociais, Telegram, Twitter (X) e fóruns. 💬 Contexto atual: medo, desinformação e manipulação emocional Com as criptomoedas enfrentando: Incerteza regulatória nos EUA, Fluxo cambial restrito na Ásia, E preocupações com liquidez em exchanges regionais, o comportamento dos investidores de varejo tem sido extremamente reativo, criando zonas de falsa euforia ou pânico que grandes players exploram para capturar liquidez e gerar armadilhas psicológicas no mercado. 📊 Expectativas para a semana: o que esperar? Com base na leitura da Santiment, o trader deve adotar uma postura contrária ao consenso popular não técnico. Eis o que observar: 📉 Se o sentimento dominante nas redes for de colapso → atenção para possível reversão altista de curto prazo. 📈 Se houver euforia e previsões generalizadas de alta forte → elevação de risco para quedas abruptas. 🔁 Expectativa de volatilidade acentuada e manipulação de zonas-chave de suporte e resistência. 🧠 Opinião do Analista – Igor Pereira: 🚨 Conclusão: Estratégia com base em sentimento é vital O investidor inteligente, diante desse cenário, deve monitorar atentamente: ✅ Volume e direção de fluxo em stablecoins; ✅ Análises contrárias de grandes wallets e fundos (on-chain); ✅ Áreas de liquidez institucional (níveis psicológicos de stop loss do varejo). 🔒 Acompanhe diariamente as atualizações da ExpertFX School para relatórios sobre criptomoedas, ouro e moedas fortes com leitura institucional, emocional e macroeconômica integrada. Autor: Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado Financeiro | Membro Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Desde 2017

The Bitcoin price crash has been spurred on by looming war events as Iran and Israel continue to go head-to-head. Naturally, the financial markets have responded negatively to this news, and the crypto market has not been left out. Interestingly, the Bitcoin price had sat above the $100,000 psychological level for the longest. However, it was only a matter of time before it lost this support and crashed further, especially as the digital asset seems to only have major support in the 5-digit territory. Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed Below $90,000 In a TradingView post, crypto analyst Master Ananda has revealed major bearish formations for the Bitcoin price. With the $100,000 support having held so far through the last week, it suggested there is still some buying going on for the cryptocurrency. However, the chart does not show enough strength to hold this level. Since the market has been rocked by over $1 billion in liquidations in the last week, it has transferred some weakness to the BTC price, putting the bears in charge once again. Pointing this out, Master Ananda explains that the weekly chart, in particular, is not showing any good signs. The current Bitcoin price action seems to only be a continuation of the bearish price action that began after it hit a peak of $111,900 back on May 19, 2025. Since then, the decline has been consistent, and the crypto analyst says the market looks “terrible” right now. Given the crash, the major support for Bitcoin is no longer above $100,000, but over 10% below it. As the price has previously broken below $100,000, the first support the market could see would be at $88,888. Failure to hold at this point would trigger another 5% decline toward $82,500 before bulls are able to put up any fight. What Happens If BTC Stays Above $100,000? While the bearish trend is the most dominant at this point, there is still the possibility that the Bitcoin price could stay back above $100,000 and hold the fort there. In this case, it is likely that the bullish trend would continue. The crypto analyst highlights this in another post, forecasting a very sharp upward move if this happens. In the case of a recovery, then Bitcoin could retest the upper trendline that sits right above $108,000. And as for how long all of this could take to play out, the crypto analyst believes that the entire thing shouldn’t take more than two weeks to actually unfold and pick a direction. “Do not be afraid if the market shakes, Bitcoin is going up; Crypto will grow, regardless of the short-term,” the analyst said in closing.

💥 FED sob pressão histórica: Ray Dalio alerta para risco cambial dos EUA com juros mais baixos Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro – Membro Wall Street NYSE Publicado em 23 de junho de 2025 – ExpertFX School 🏦 “O Federal Reserve está diante de um impasse crítico” O renomado gestor de fundos Ray Dalio, fundador da Bridgewater Associates, emitiu um alerta contundente sobre o cenário atual da economia norte-americana: A declaração evidencia o que muitos investidores institucionais já identificaram: a política monetária dos EUA chegou a um ponto estrutural de saturação. O dilema central do Fed agora é simples e brutal: Cortar juros para estimular a economia → Pressiona o dólar, aumenta inflação e gera perda de confiança internacional. Manter juros altos para defender a moeda → Enfraquece o consumo, destrói o crédito e eleva o risco de recessão. 📊 Impactos visíveis: fuga de Treasuries, corrida para o ouro Diversos sinais recentes reforçam o alerta de Dalio. A China, por exemplo, vendeu mais de US$ 314 bilhões em títulos do Tesouro norte-americano, conforme dados atualizados do TIC SLT. Ao mesmo tempo, os fluxos para fundos de ouro devem atingir um recorde histórico de US$ 80 bilhões em 2025, de acordo com relatório da Bank of America. ![Chart: Inflows recorde em fundos de ouro – BofA Global Research] Além disso, a própria COMEX registrou um aumento explosivo nas entregas físicas de ouro neste ano, refletindo a busca por ativos reais como proteção contra incertezas monetárias. O índice EPU (Economic Policy Uncertainty), que mede a incerteza política e econômica nos EUA, disparou para níveis não vistos desde 2020, aumentando ainda mais a pressão sobre o Fed. 💣 Tensão geopolítica e déficit histórico agravam a crise Em paralelo à política monetária, os EUA enfrentam a maior deterioração fiscal de sua história moderna, com déficits anuais ultrapassando os US$ 2 trilhões. O conflito aberto com o Irã, os riscos de retaliação e o aumento nos gastos com defesa empurram os mercados para o modo de aversão a risco. Um relatório recente da Fortune destaca que o Bank of America projeta o ouro a US$ 4.000, com o argumento de que os déficits norte-americanos podem ofuscar até mesmo a escalada entre Israel e Irã. 🧠 Análise técnica e institucional – O que esperar? Para o investidor institucional e o trader profissional, o cenário é claro: 🔹 O ouro (XAU/USD) deve continuar sendo o principal beneficiário da crise cambial e monetária. 🔹 O dólar pode sofrer desvalorização estrutural caso os cortes de juros avancem em meio à perda de credibilidade do Fed. 🔹 A estrutura de mercado indica forte acúmulo institucional via ETFs, derivativos e entregas físicas na COMEX. 📌 Fique atento: Decisão do FOMC e atualização da taxa de juros (próxima reunião); Crescimento dos ETFs de ouro e saída de fundos de Treasuries; Declarações da Casa Branca e pressão política sobre Jerome Powell; Intensificação da instabilidade no Oriente Médio. 🔒 A era do dinheiro fácil acabou. Agora, é a vez da disciplina, proteção patrimonial e inteligência macroeconômica. Acompanhe as análises diárias do mercado financeiro aqui na ExpertFX School! Autor: Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado Financeiro | Membro Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Desde 2017

Risk-off sentiment returned in today’s Asian session following a renewed spike in geopolitical risk premiums. This was driven by US President Trump’s reversal over the weekend, abandoning his earlier “two-week grace period” and authorizing airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities. close Fig 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 23 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 23 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) The US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has staged a gap-down decline of -1% in today’s Asian opening session before it pared back its intraday losses to -0.3% at this time of writing. The current intraday rebound on the US Nasdaq 100 has occurred for the third time right at the 21,500 key near-term support, now a likely downside trigger level for the bears. Overall, the short-term technical structure is skewing towards a bearish bias as price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index have traded below its 20-day moving average, and the hourly RSI momentum indicator remains below a parallel descending resistance at around the 62 level. Watch the 22,050 key pivotal resistance, and a break below 21,500 may kickstart of minor downtrend phase in the first step, exposing the next intermediate support zone at 21,180/21,030 (see Fig 2). On the flip side, a clearance above 22,050 invalidates the bearish scenario for a retest on its current all-time area of 22,200/22,250. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

🇩🇪🇮🇹 Europa debate repatriação de ouro armazenado em Nova York diante de riscos geopolíticos sob Trump 📌 Em meio ao agravamento da crise no Oriente Médio e ataques liderados por Trump ao Irã, a preocupação com o risco sistêmico global levou líderes políticos e analistas econômicos na Europa a exigirem a repatriação imediata de reservas nacionais de ouro atualmente armazenadas no Federal Reserve Bank de Nova York. Segundo dados do World Gold Council, Alemanha e Itália detêm as segundas e terceiras maiores reservas oficiais de ouro do mundo, com 3.352 toneladas e 2.452 toneladas, respectivamente. No entanto, mais de um terço desses volumes está armazenado fora da Europa, principalmente nos cofres da Fed em Manhattan — totalizando mais de US$ 245 bilhões em reservas sob custódia estrangeira. O que era historicamente considerado seguro agora passou a ser alvo de questionamentos intensos diante: da escalada bélica entre EUA, Israel e Irã; da ameaça de Trump à independência do Federal Reserve; e de mudanças nas prioridades de segurança nacional americana. 🛑 Críticas à dependência europeia da custódia norte-americana O ex-eurodeputado alemão Fabio De Masi afirmou ao Financial Times que existem “argumentos fortes” para repatriar o ouro europeu em tempos de turbulência geopolítica, alegando que os riscos de um possível confisco, bloqueio ou uso político dessas reservas aumentaram. A Associação dos Contribuintes da Europa (TAE) também emitiu um alerta formal aos bancos centrais da Alemanha e da Itália: Já o economista Enrico Grazzini publicou um editorial contundente antes da visita de Meloni à Casa Branca: ⚠️ Implicações financeiras e estratégicas A possível quebra de confiança no sistema de custódia monetária internacional, especialmente no dólar, pode acelerar: 💰 O movimento global de desdolarização, com China, Rússia, BRICS e agora Europa questionando a hegemonia do USD; 🪙 A demanda por ouro físico em custódia própria, como forma de proteção contra sanções, expropriação ou falhas institucionais; 📉 O esvaziamento gradual da função do Federal Reserve como “guarda universal de reservas estrangeiras”, abrindo espaço para novas estruturas multipolares. 🧭 O que esperar no mercado financeiro? Valorização do XAU/USD: Repatriações em larga escala fortalecem o ouro como ativo estratégico e soberano, impulsionando a demanda física e retirando liquidez do sistema derivativo (COMEX). Pressão sobre o dólar: O aumento da percepção de risco institucional e o enfraquecimento da confiança no Fed como custodiante pode ampliar a correção estrutural do USD. Aumento do fluxo de fundos e ETFs para ouro: A projeção de longo prazo do BofA de US$ 4.000/onça se torna cada vez mais embasada diante do cenário global. 🔒 Considerações finais A pressão política para a repatriação de ouro europeu armazenado nos EUA simboliza o fim de uma era de confiança inabalável no sistema monetário americano. Trump, ao colocar a independência do Fed em xeque e ao conduzir ações militares unilaterais, acelera a reestruturação do sistema financeiro global. 💡 O ouro volta a ocupar o papel central como ativo final de soberania e proteção nacional — não apenas para países emergentes, mas também para potências ocidentais. Por Igor Pereira — Analista de Mercado Financeiro, Membro Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Estratégia, Soberania e Inteligência Geopolítica para o Trader Consciente

Dogecoin started a fresh decline from the $0.1720 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating losses and might recover if it clears $0.1580. DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.170 and $0.160 levels. The price is trading below the $0.160 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.1510 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start a fresh decline if it stays below the $0.1580 zone. Dogecoin Price Faces Resistance Dogecoin price started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the $0.1720 zone, underperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.1600 and $0.1580 levels. The bears even pushed the price below the $0.1450 level. A low was formed at $0.1427 and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a minor move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.1718 swing high to the $0.1427 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.1510 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. Dogecoin price is now trading below the $0.1580 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.1550 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.1580 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.1718 swing high to the $0.1427 low. The next major resistance is near the $0.1610 level. A close above the $0.1610 resistance might send the price toward the $0.1720 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.200 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.2120. Another Decline In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.1580 level, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.1480 level. The next major support is near the $0.1440 level. The main support sits at $0.1420. If there is a downside break below the $0.1420 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might decline toward the $0.1350 level or even $0.1280 in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now losing momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.1440 and $0.1420. Major Resistance Levels – $0.1580 and $0.1610.

XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.00 zone. The price is now correcting losses and faces resistance near the $2.050 level. XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.050 zone. The price is now trading below $2.020 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.020 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair might start a fresh increase if there is a close above the $2.050 resistance zone. XRP Price Faces Resistance XRP price reacted to the downside below the $2.120 support zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price declined below the $2.050 and $2.020 support levels. The pair tested the $1.920 support A low was formed at $1.910 and the price started to recover losses. There was a minor recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.178 swing high to the $1.910 low. The price is now trading below $2.020 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.020 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.020 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The first major resistance is near the $2.050 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.178 swing high to the $1.910 low. The next resistance is $2.080. A clear move above the $2.080 resistance might send the price toward the $2.120 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.150 resistance or even $2.20 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be $2.250. Another Drop? If XRP fails to clear the $2.050 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.950 level. The next major support is near the $1.920 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.920 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $1.880 support. The next major support sits near the $1.840 zone. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $1.950 and $1.920. Major Resistance Levels – $2.020 and $2.050.

The market’s leading crypto, Bitcoin (BTC), dipped below the $100,000 mark for the first time in over a month on Sunday, following US airstrikes on Iran as conflicts in the middle east continue to escalate. This decline, which saw the Bitcoin price drop approximately 4% to around $99,300, coincided with a broader market sell-off, with Ethereum (ETH) experiencing an even sharper decline of nearly 10%. Overall, the total cryptocurrency market took a significant hit, falling about 7% in just 24 hours. Geopolitical Unrest And Tariff Troubles The timing of this downturn was particularly notable, occurring just hours after the US targeted three key nuclear sites in Iran. Tensions had escalated following a United Nations report that indicated Iran was not adhering to international prohibitions against developing a military nuclear program. In response to these revelations, Israel conducted strikes against Iran, leading to further retaliation from the Islamic Republic. On Saturday, President Donald Trump declared on social media: This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR. THANK YOU! This recent plummet below the psychologically significant $100,000 threshold follows a year of substantial gains for Bitcoin. After Trump took office in January, Bitcoin reached all-time highs above $100,000 in February, buoyed by executive orders aimed at supporting the cryptocurrency sector. However, the cryptocurrency’s price soon mirrored the broader declines in financial markets, particularly after Trump announced severe tariffs in April, which saw Bitcoin fall to nearly $75,000, its lowest point in 2025. Despite this volatility, Bitcoin had seen a resurgence, particularly in May when it reached new highs as Wall Street investors returned to the cryptocurrency through US exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, by late Sunday, there were signs of recovery, with Bitcoin trading approximately at $101,300, down only 1% over the previous day, while ETH managed to pare its losses to around $2,200. Forced Liquidations Exacerbate Bitcoin Sell-Off According to CNBC, Iran has also threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route responsible for approximately 20% of the global oil supply, further adding to the broader financial uncertainty. JPMorgan warned that such a blockade could drive oil prices up to $130 per barrel, which would have significant implications for US inflation, potentially pushing it back toward 5%—a level not seen since March 2023. While Bitcoin has often been promoted as an inflation hedge, its recent behavior aligns more closely with that of high-beta tech stocks. Data from crypto provider Kaiko indicates that Bitcoin’s correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq has increased sharply in recent weeks, particularly following the surge in inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional investment patterns have also shifted. More than $1.04 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs from Monday to Wednesday last week, but this momentum dissipated as the weekend approached, with minimal net movement on Thursday and only $6.4 million on Friday. The technical aspects of the market further exacerbated the sell-off. Research from CoinGlass revealed that Bitcoin’s drop below $99,000 triggered forced liquidations across offshore derivatives platforms, including Binance and Bybit. During this period, over $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with more than 95% of these coming from long positions, highlighting the market’s overexposure. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum price started a fresh decline below the $2,500 zone. ETH is now consolidating losses and might attempt to recover above the $2,250 resistance. Ethereum started a fresh decline below the $2,350 level. The price is trading below $2,350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2,280 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it settles above the $2,320 resistance zone in the near term. Ethereum Price Eyes Recovery Ethereum price started a fresh decline below the $2,500 support level, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below the $2,350 and $2,250 levels. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,200 level. The pair tested the $2,120 zone and started a consolidation phase. There was a minor move above the $2,200 level. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,568 swing high to the $2,114 low. Ethereum price is now trading below $2,300 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $2,250 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2,280 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The next key resistance is near the $2,340 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,568 swing high to the $2,114 low. The first major resistance is near the $2,400 level. A clear move above the $2,400 resistance might send the price toward the $2,500 resistance. An upside break above the $2,500 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,550 resistance zone or even $2,620 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,340 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,200 level. The first major support sits near the $2,150 zone. A clear move below the $2,150 support might push the price toward the $2,120 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,050 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $2,000. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $2,150 Major Resistance Level – $2,340

🌍 Alerta Global dos EUA reforça escalada de risco geopolítico e sustenta tese do ouro como proteção sistêmica 📌 23 de junho de 2025 — O Departamento de Estado dos EUA emitiu um alerta de “Worldwide Caution” para todos os cidadãos norte-americanos, em resposta direta aos ataques contra instalações nucleares do Irã realizados pelo governo Trump. O comunicado alerta sobre: Potencial para protestos e represálias em larga escala contra interesses e cidadãos norte-americanos; Interrupções em viagens internacionais e fechamento do espaço aéreo no Oriente Médio; Aumento da instabilidade regional, com efeitos colaterais globais. O Departamento de Estado afirma que "os cidadãos dos EUA devem exercer cautela em todo o mundo", reconhecendo o cenário de alta imprevisibilidade estratégica, algo não observado desde o 11 de setembro. 💣 Impactos esperados no mercado financeiro: Alta sustentada no ouro (XAU/USD): O alerta reforça o deslocamento de capital para ativos de reserva, justificando os fluxos recordes para fundos de ouro e contratos físicos. A previsão do Bank of America de U$3.700-US$ 4.000/onça torna-se ainda mais plausível. Aversão a risco em moedas emergentes e bolsas: A expectativa é de forte impacto negativo sobre o apetite por risco, elevando a volatilidade no forex e pressionando moedas como BRL, TRY, ZAR, MXN. Disfunção logística e inflação de commodities: Com interrupções aéreas e marítimas, principalmente no Estreito de Hormuz, o risco inflacionário para petróleo, gás natural e metais industriais sobe fortemente. Fluxo defensivo para Treasuries de curto prazo e ouro físico: O alerta amplia a busca por proteção. Entretanto, com a China liquidando US$ 314 bilhões em Treasuries (conforme dados TIC), o ouro tende a captar uma parcela crescente desse fluxo de realocação institucional. 📉 Considerações finais: O alerta global de segurança emitido pelos EUA consolida a percepção de que o conflito Israel-Irã não será contido diplomaticamente no curto prazo. A consequência direta nos mercados é um fortalecimento da narrativa de proteção — com o ouro no epicentro dessa transição geopolítica e financeira. 💡 Investidores institucionais e varejo devem monitorar atentamente os níveis de suporte técnico do XAU/USD, spreads entre ouro físico e derivativos e variações nos estoques da COMEX, que seguem em forte declínio. Por Igor Pereira — Analista de Mercado Financeiro, Membro Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Inteligência estratégica para o trader institucional e consciente.

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $103,000 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to recover above the $103,500 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $103,000 zone. The price is trading below $102,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $101,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $100,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $105,500 zone. BTC gained pace and dipped below the $104,200 and $103,000 levels. There was a clear move below the $102,000 support level. Finally, the price tested the $98,250 zone. A low was formed at $98,277 and the price started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $106,470 swing high to the $98,277 low. However, the bears were active below the $101,200 zone. Bitcoin is now trading below $102,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $101,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $101,250 level. The first key resistance is near the $102,500 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $106,470 swing high to the $98,277 low. The next key resistance could be $103,500. A close above the $103,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $105,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $106,200 level. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $102,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $100,150 level. The first major support is near the $98,500 level. The next support is now near the $96,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $95,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $95,000, below which BTC might struggle to find bids. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $100,150, followed by $100,000. Major Resistance Levels – $101,250 and $103,500.

📉 Explosão de entregas físicas de ouro na COMEX em 2025 confirma corrida institucional por proteção sistêmica 📊 Dados atualizados até abril de 2025 mostram que os pedidos de entrega física de contratos futuros de ouro na COMEX atingiram níveis recordes. Em paralelo, os estoques certificados na bolsa continuam em queda e o índice EPU (Economic Policy Uncertainty) disparou, refletindo um ambiente de elevada aversão ao risco. 🟦 Gráfico A: Demanda física explode – entregas superam 60 mil contratos em abril de 2025 O volume de entregas físicas em contratos de ouro COMEX superou os 60 mil contratos, equivalente a 6 milhões de onças troy, o maior volume desde o início da série histórica. Os estoques certificados da COMEX continuam em declínio gradual, agora abaixo de 20 milhões de onças, o que representa risco sistêmico de entrega em caso de escalada prolongada na demanda por metal físico. O índice EPU (linha vermelha), que mede a incerteza econômica e política, correlaciona-se diretamente com o pico de entregas, reforçando o papel do ouro como porto seguro em ambientes de instabilidade global. 📘 Gráfico B: Quem está comprando ouro? Bancos dominam os derivativos – fundos dominam os ETFs A comparação entre exposição por setor em derivativos (março de 2025) e ETFs (Q4 2024) revela: Derivativos de ouro (COMEX e OTC) são dominados por bancos e fundos de investimento institucional, com mais de 90% da posição concentrada nesses players. ETFs de ouro são amplamente utilizados por fundos de investimento, fundos de pensão e famílias, indicando uma crescente monetização do ouro no varejo e no institucional conservador. 📌 Conexão macroeconômica: ouro físico versus ouro sintético Essa dinâmica expõe uma realidade crítica: Essa migração de contratos para entrega física e a queda nos estoques são indicativos técnicos de stress sistêmico, em que a credibilidade do sistema de papel (dólar, Treasuries, bancos centrais) está sendo desafiada. 🧭 O que esperar e impactos no mercado: Pressão contínua sobre os preços do ouro: O colapso da confiança em títulos públicos dos EUA (vide venda contínua da China) e o risco geopolítico (EUA vs Irã) sustentam a escalada do ouro. Risco de escassez física na COMEX: Se o número de contratos com pedido de entrega continuar superior à reposição de estoque, poderá haver ruptura estrutural no sistema de derivativos, provocando pânico e divergência de preço entre papel e físico. Ouro se consolida como ativo de soberania financeira: Bancos centrais, hedge funds e governos estão reposicionando reservas fora do sistema dolarizado tradicional, com ênfase em ouro físico custodiado fora dos EUA. 💡 Conclusão Estratégica: O ouro não está apenas se valorizando – ele está sendo remonetizado. A corrida por entregas físicas, a queda dos estoques e a dominância institucional nos contratos futuros são alertas claros de uma mudança estrutural na confiança global. 🔒 Em tempos de incerteza, o ouro físico volta a ser soberano. Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado, Membro Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Insights institucionais sobre o mercado de ouro e derivativos.

🇨🇳 China acelera venda de Treasuries e aprofunda desdolarização global: impacto estrutural sobre o ouro 📉 Segundo os dados oficiais do Departamento do Tesouro dos EUA (TIC), a China liquidou US$ 314 bilhões em títulos do Tesouro americano desde fevereiro de 2023, com destaque para vendas agressivas nos últimos 12 meses, incluindo uma queda de US$ 40 bilhões em maio de 2024 e US$ 27 bilhões em março de 2025. 📊 Interpretação técnica: saída contínua e coordenada A consistência dessas vendas, com 24 dos 27 meses mostrando fluxo negativo, revela um movimento deliberado de desdolarização por parte de Pequim. Em paralelo, o PBoC (Banco Popular da China) vem intensificando compras de ouro físico e incentivando o uso de yuan em contratos de energia e comércio bilateral com Rússia, Irã, Brasil e países africanos. 🟨 Conexão direta com o ouro Conforme já destacado no relatório do Bank of America, fluxos para fundos de ouro ultrapassaram US$ 80 bilhões em 2025, e a demanda oficial de bancos centrais (liderados por China, Turquia e Índia) continua sustentando os preços. 🧭 Impactos no mercado financeiro O que esperar a seguir? Dólar sob pressão: A redução da demanda chinesa por Treasuries implica maior custo de financiamento para os EUA. Isso amplia a pressão sobre os juros de longo prazo, o que pode dificultar cortes pela política monetária da Fed. Alta estrutural no ouro: O movimento de desdolarização é um choque de oferta de crédito em dólar, e simultaneamente um catalisador de valorização do ouro, sobretudo quando aliado ao risco geopolítico (Oriente Médio) e fiscal (déficit dos EUA). Risco sistêmico escondido: A venda desses ativos de longo prazo (> 1 ano) pelos chineses reduz a liquidez estrutural dos mercados de dívida pública dos EUA, afetando diretamente fundos de pensão, bancos e seguradoras globalmente expostas. 📌 Conclusão Estratégica A leitura técnica dos dados TIC confirma que a escalada do ouro não se dá apenas por medo ou guerra. Estamos assistindo a uma mudança na arquitetura financeira global, onde atores estatais rejeitam o dólar como reserva principal e passam a acumular ouro como ativo de confiança sistêmica. 👉 Siga os próximos relatórios da ExpertFX School para acompanhamento institucional diário dos fluxos globais de ouro, Treasuries e moeda. Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado e Membro Wall Street NYSE

🧨 Bank of America projeta ouro a US$ 4.000: déficits dos EUA devem pesar mais que guerra Israel-Irã Atualização de 22 de junho de 2025 De acordo com relatório publicado pela Fortune, o Bank of America (BofA) acredita que o preço do ouro pode atingir US$ 4.000 por onça troy nos próximos meses. O motivo, segundo o banco, vai além do conflito entre EUA, Israel e Irã: o que está realmente impulsionando o ouro são os déficits estruturais explosivos dos Estados Unidos, que ameaçam a estabilidade do sistema financeiro global. 🏛️ Déficit estrutural dos EUA: o verdadeiro catalisador Enquanto os ataques a instalações nucleares iranianas movimentam manchetes e provocam reações geopolíticas, o mercado olha para o horizonte de médio e longo prazo, onde o desequilíbrio fiscal norte-americano mina a confiança nos títulos do Tesouro e no dólar americano. 📈 Ouro como alternativa institucional Com a deterioração fiscal, os principais fundos de investimento aceleraram suas compras de ouro: US$ 80 bilhões em fluxos para fundos de ouro em 2025 (recorde histórico – BofA Global Research) 43% dos bancos centrais planejam aumentar suas reservas em ouro ainda este ano. O euro já foi ultrapassado como segunda maior reserva global, atrás apenas do dólar. 💬 Análise do Especialista Igor Pereira A projeção do BofA para o ouro a US$ 4.000 não é exagerada, considerando os fundamentos. Estamos diante de um cenário inédito onde: O dólar americano perde valor relativo, não por inflação de curto prazo, mas por dívida insustentável. O ouro se consolida como ativo soberano não manipulável, acumulado por bancos centrais como China, Índia, Turquia e Rússia. A fragilidade dos títulos públicos (Treasuries) é percebida como risco sistêmico, não mais como refúgio. 🟨 O que esperar? Se a tensão no Oriente Médio se intensificar com bloqueio do Estreito de Hormuz ou ataques a aliados dos EUA, o ouro pode antecipar a marca dos US$ 4.000. Se houver retração fiscal ou acordo diplomático, a pressão sobre o dólar poderá aliviar, mas a demanda estrutural por ouro continuará. A correlação entre ouro e fluxos institucionais se intensificou, deixando clara a transição do metal de “hedge tático” para ativo de base monetária alternativa. 📌 Fique atento aos relatórios da ExpertFX School nas próximas semanas. 📊 Acompanhe diariamente o comportamento do XAU/USD em nosso terminal exclusivo. 📚 Assine nossos conteúdos premium e esteja preparado para o novo ciclo de dominância do ouro. Por Igor Pereira – Analista de Mercado e Membro Wall Street NYSE

Bitcoin (BTC) has registered a slight uptick in the last few hours after US President Donald Trump announced a successful airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, a move aimed at de-escalating rising tensions in the Middle East after several days of conflict between Iran and Israel. Despite the short-term price reaction, BTC remains in a corrective phase, having struggled to break through the $110,000 resistance level over the past month with market sentiment being largely shaped by both global uncertainty and technical stagnation. Amid this backdrop, a crypto analyst with X pseudonym On-Chain College has highlighted two prospective price targets based on on-chain data. Market Odds Favor Further Upside For Bitcoin – Analyst In a recent X post on June 21, On-Chain College shares a positive long-term Bitcoin price outlook using the Mayer Multiple, an on-chain metric that measures relationship between Bitcoin’s price and its 200-day moving average (200DMA). By tracking key valuation bands, the Mayer Multiple helps determine whether Bitcoin is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued, based on historical price behavior. Since the bull market commenced in Q4 2024, Bitcoin has consistently moved between 1.0x band i.e. the 200DMA (blue line) and the 1.5x band (orange line) representing the mid price range zone. Notably, the Bitcoin price struggles in the past have generated speculations of potential market top at the current market high. However, the Mayer Multiple chart shows that BTC has only ever attained a cycle price peak after hitting the 2.5x band (red line). Therefore, there is still room for price growth in the current bull market. However, the immediate price targets for premier cryptocurrency lies at $96,000 (1.0x) or $144,000 (1.5x). Notably, there is significant potential to rediscover its bullish form and surge towards $144,000 in line with its defined-range bound movement. However, there are also equal chances of a return to $96,000 which On-Chain College states would aid in flushing out weak hands before a full-scale bullish price reversal. Bitcoin Price Outlook At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $102,700 following a 1.50% decline in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the maiden cryptocurrency also reports losses of 2.94% and 8.08% on the weekly and monthly chart, respectively. According to CoinCodex, the general market sentiment remains neutral. However, CoinCodex analysts foresee an impending price breakout with an audacious projection of $136,472 within the next five days. Interestingly, it’s worth noting that this level may represent or come close to the cycle market top, as long-term forecasts include $138,379 in three months and $116,115 in six months. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Blockchain tracking service Whale Alert posted a major alert showing that 129,392 ETH was transferred from an unidentified wallet to Coinbase as the Ethereum price tumbled. On-chain data from Etherscan shows that this particular wallet had not been involved in the transfer of large ETH volumes since November 2022. This sudden reactivation and deposit into a centralized exchange opens up speculation of a looming selloff, especially given the timing of the transfer. Massive ETH Transfer As Middle East Tensions Escalate Whale transaction tracker Whale Alerts, which initially reported the transfer on the social media platform X, noted that at the time of the transfer, these 129,392 ETH were worth $312,981,377. The timing of the transfer is noteworthy because it occurred when the price of Ethereum failed to hold above $2,500 and had already begun to struggle to stay above $2,400. Etherscan’s tracking of on-chain transactions indicates that the unknown wallet “0xd47b,” which was involved in the transfer, has been relatively inactive since late 2022. Particularly, its last transaction was an inflow of 6,469 ETH from another wallet linked to Coinbase. The latest transfer into Coinbase leans more towards the possibility of a selloff through the exchange. Since then, the Ethereum price has lost a key support level at $2,450. Its price has fallen notably in the past 48 hours. Although other factors are clearly contributing to the dip, particularly new geopolitical tensions after the US launched attacks on Iran, this whale deposit into Coinbase may have increased the downward pressure. Exchange inflows of this magnitude are a precursor to liquidation, particularly now that investor sentiment is on edge. Bearish Setup Confirms Downside Targets The technical picture for Ethereum is now turning bearish, at least in the short term. Technical analysis of Ethereum’s 4-hour chart on the TradingView platform shows a clear bearish breakdown setup after Ethereum broke below a crucial support line at $2,362. That support level has now been breached, and confirmation of the breakdown amplifies a bearish case moving forward. Chart Image From TradingView The chart above, which includes overlays of the Ichimoku Cloud, shows a fading bullish momentum in the past few days. Previous failed attempts to break resistance have left Ethereum in a vulnerable zone, and the recent whale selloff may have delivered the final push needed to trigger this leg down. If the current trajectory continues, Ethereum could be on its way to retesting lows below $2,000. According to the TradingView analysis, potential reversal targets are at $2,151 and $1,954, with a third possible level at $1,750 if the selloff is more than expected. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,290, down by 5.5% and 10% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively.

Analysts at the Bank of America see gold prices reaching $4,000 an ounce — an 18% jump above current levels — within the next year due to a ballooning US fiscal debt. Gold — traditionally viewed as a safe haven during times of uncertainty — has risen by nearly 30% this year, driven by high global trade tensions and rising geopolitical risks. In April, the yellow metal soared to an all-time high of $3,500 as an unprecedented tariff war ignited by the US rocked the global markets. A dragged-out US-Ukraine deal also did little to assuage investor concerns. Contrary to popular opinion, another potential rally to $4,000 may have less to do with these factors, but more to do with US debt, BofA analysts say. In a note published Friday, the analysts explained that wars and geopolitical conflicts typically “aren’t long-term growth drivers” for gold prices, pointing to the 2% dip in the metal’s prices since Israel began its airstrikes on Iran a week ago. According to the bank’s analysts, the Israel-Iran conflict has drawn attention away from US President Donald Trump’s sprawling tax-and-spending bill that’s making its way through Congress. If passed, the bill is expected to add trillions of dollars in deficits in the coming years, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debts and the future status of the dollar. “While the war between Israel and Iran can always escalate, conflicts are not usually a sustained bullish price driver,” they wrote. “As such, the trajectory of the US budget negotiations will be critical, and if fiscal shortfalls don’t decline, the fallout from that plus market volatility may end up attracting more buyers.” De-dollarization The BofA analysts also pointed to the growing trend of global central banks shifting away from US assets (Treasuries and dollar) in their reserves and holding more gold. They estimate that central banks’ gold holdings represent about 18% of the outstanding US public debt, up from 13% a decade ago. “That tally should be a warning for US policymakers. Ongoing apprehension over trade and US fiscal deficits may well divert more central bank purchases away from US Treasuries to gold,” they warned. A study by the European Central Bank revealed that bullion has risen up the ranks of official reserve assets, surpassing the euro and only behind the dollar. By the end of 2024, it is estimated that gold accounted for 20% of the world’s total reserve holdings. The dollar, while maintaining a lead at 46%, continued to decline. Similarly, a recent survey by the World Gold Council showed that most central banks are expecting to accumulate more gold and less dollar over the next 12 months.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to experience an extensive price correction losing over 7% of its market value in the last month. The flagship cryptocurrency has struggled to regain its bullish form after setting a new all-time high leading to speculations of a potential market top. Interestingly, popular market analyst and the host of The Wolf of All Streets Podcast, Scott Melker has recently shared a market development that supports such bearish notions. Bitcoin Set For 26% Crash? In an X post on June 21, Scott Melker shares a cautionary insight on the Bitcoin market hinting at a bearish long-term outlook. The season analyst reports that data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s has now closed below the 50-day moving average (50 MA) on the daily trading chart, a development that last occurred two months ago when Bitcoin traded around $84,000. The 50MA is a commonly used technical indicator that represents the average closing price of an asset over the past 50 days. As a lagging indicator, it helps traders identify the prevailing market trend. When the price remains above the 50 MA, it typically signals a bullish trend, while a move below the 50 MA may indicate bearish momentum or a potential trend reversal. Interestingly, Melker notes that Bitcoin last lost the 50 MA as a support zone in early February trading around $100,000. However, the loss of this price floor triggered an immense selling pressure forcing Bitcoin into prolonged market correction to reach market low of $74,000 in April. Amidst the current market uncertainty, the recent daily price close below 50 MA strengthens bearish sentiments suggesting Bitcoin is due for another potential 26% crash. In that case, investors could expect a downside target of around $76,200. To invalidate such bearish projections, Bitcoin must continue to hold above the $100,000 resistance level, fueling the chances to retest the current all-time high, and perhaps re-enter price discovery mode. Bitcoin Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $102,889 after a 1.43% decline in the last day. In tandem, the asset’s daily trading volume has crashed by 29.30% and is presently valued at $35.15 billion. With a market cap of $2.02 trillion, the “digital gold” continues to rank as the largest cryptocurrency and fifth largest asset in the world. However, according to prominent market analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin may actually be slipping into bearish territory as similarly predicted by Scott Melker. Based on insights from the MVRV pricing bands, if the market lose the current support at $102,000, it opens the door to a potential decline toward $82,000.