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Bitcoin is holding steady above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), showing signs of underlying strength despite a lack of clear directional momentum. With rising trading volume and mixed technical indicators, the next move could swing either way, keeping the market on edge. RSI Holds Neutral As Bitcoin Awaits A Clearer Signal According to Shaco AI, in a recent update on X, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $107,264.17, positioning itself just above two key moving averages. It’s nudging the 25-day SMA at $107,229.82 and holding slightly above the 50-day SMA, which sits at $107,040.81. This positioning reflects a mild bullish bias in recent sessions, keeping both bulls and bears on alert. Looking at momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is resting at 53.36—firmly in neutral territory. This suggests that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold at the moment, offering no strong directional clues as it keeps the market guessing. Furthermore, the Average Directional Index (ADX) adds to this indecisive mood, coming in at a soft 20.44. This low reading signals a weak trend, meaning there’s not enough force from bulls or bears to drive a clear breakout just yet. In other words, the market isn’t leaning heavily in either direction. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory at -137.33. Although it isn’t signaling any strong downward momentum, traders may want to stay cautious and alert for any sudden shift in the current tone. Despite the technical indecision, market activity is picking up. Bitcoin’s recent trading volume has surged to 1903.51, well above the average of 1522.43. This uptick signals a rise in interest and participation, indicating that traders are actively positioning themselves in anticipation of Bitcoin’s next move. Critical Zones At Play As Market Prepares For A Directional Push Looking at key levels, Shaco AI highlighted that resistance is at $108,789.99, which seems to be a strong level to overcome. The level marks a significant ceiling for Bitcoin, and any attempt to push higher will need solid momentum to break through. On the other hand, support lies at $104,622.02. This support level will be critical in case the price begins to retreat, as a breakdown here could open the door for further downside. Based on current indicators, the analyst suggests it’s wise to keep an eye out for potential movement in either direction. With volume picking up, Bitcoin may soon test either the resistance above or fall back to support, depending on how momentum develops in the coming sessions.

Shares of Lupaka Gold (TSXV: LPK, FRA: LQP) skyrocketed to a three-year high on Wednesday after the Canadian miner after winning $65 million in its international arbitration case against Peru, five years after launching the case. In a press release, the company confirmed it has the final award from the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) in the arbitration it initiated against the Peruvian government back in 2020. Shares of Lukapa Gold gained as much as three-fold from C$0.08 to C$0.24 on the news, for its highest since June 2022. As of 1:40 p.m. ET, the stock traded at C$0.14 for an intraday gain of 167% and a market capitalization of C$4.1 million. The dispute stems from a protest by the community of Parán in October 2018 that blockaded access to Lupaka’s Invicta gold development project, located 120 kilometres north of the capital city Lima. The blockade, which the company considered to be illegal, severely impacted its ore processing operations and limited cash flow generation. A year later, Lupaka lost the project due to its inability to pay back its lender. Before the situation started, Lupaka had completed 3,000 metres of underground workings, agreements from the community of Lacsanga and a 29-kilometre access road sufficient to handle 40-tonne ore trucks. The project was forecast to produce 185,000 oz. of gold equivalent over a six-year life. In the arbitration launched in November 2020, the British Columbia-based gold miner alleged that the Peruvian government had supported this protest, thus breaching its free trade agreement with Canada. In its claim, it was seeking compensation of more than $100 million. In the arbitral tribunal’s decision this week, the Peruvian government was ordered to pay Lupaka a total amount of $65 million. Lupaka’s CEO Gordon Ellis said while receipt of the final award is “exceptionally good news” and a key step in arbitration proceedings against Peru, it “does not necessarily mean that the company will recover the amounts awarded in the immediate future.”

Bitcoin has experienced heightened volatility over the past few days, moving between critical levels as market participants await a clear breakout or breakdown. After testing $105,000 as support, BTC rebounded strongly and pushed back toward the $109,000 resistance zone—an area that has capped upward momentum for several weeks. While bulls remain in control of the broader structure, price action continues to show hesitation just below the all-time high, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. To confirm the next leg of the long-term trend, Bitcoin needs to break into price discovery territory above $112,000 with strong volume and follow-through. Until that happens, the current range-bound conditions could persist, especially as traders weigh macro factors and profit-taking activity increases. Top analyst Jelle shared a technical analysis pointing to another strong bounce from the 50-day moving average and exponential moving average (MA/EMA) cluster, key dynamic support levels that have repeatedly triggered bullish reactions. This bounce reinforces the underlying strength in the current trend, suggesting that buyers continue to step in at crucial levels. As long as BTC holds above this support zone, the path toward a breakout remains intact—but confirmation is still needed. Bitcoin Prepares For Expansion Phase Bitcoin appears poised to enter a new expansive phase, with a breakout above its all-time high potentially triggering a fresh wave of bullish momentum, not just for BTC, but for the broader crypto market. After weeks of grinding just below the $112,000 resistance level, Bitcoin has struggled to push decisively higher. However, the structure remains bullish, and buyers have consistently defended key demand zones around $105,000. This ability to maintain higher lows during a period of consolidation signals strong market control by the bulls. According to Jelle, Bitcoin has just seen another powerful bounce from the 50-day moving average and exponential moving average (MA/EMA) cluster—an area that has historically acted as a dynamic support zone. Each time BTC has touched this cluster in recent months, it has rebounded with renewed strength, and the latest bounce is no exception. Jelle believes this reaction confirms the uptrend remains intact, with conditions aligning for a breakout. “The trend is up—new all-time highs are very much on the menu this week,” Jelle noted, emphasizing the importance of sustained momentum above current resistance. If Bitcoin can close decisively above $112K, it would likely ignite a surge in altcoins, many of which have lagged during BTC’s dominance-driven phase. With bulls maintaining control and technical support holding firm, the market is now watching for confirmation that Bitcoin is ready to enter price discovery once again. A successful breakout could mark the beginning of the next major leg in the crypto cycle. BTC Tests Resistance Again After Volatile Bounce Bitcoin is once again pushing toward the critical $109,300 resistance level after bouncing strongly from the $105,000 support zone. The 12-hour chart shows a series of failed breakouts above the $109K level in recent weeks, highlighting the strength of this resistance zone. However, bulls have continued to defend higher lows, maintaining overall market structure and preventing deeper corrections. The latest candle shows a 1.93% surge, reclaiming the 50- and 100-period moving averages around $106,000, a key short-term cluster that previously acted as support. Volume also picked up during this bounce, suggesting renewed buying interest as Bitcoin tries to establish bullish momentum. Still, the rejection just below $109,300 remains a concern. If BTC fails to break and close above this range soon, the risk of a return to the $103,600 demand zone increases, especially in the face of rising volatility and profit-taking across the network. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is set to be released tomorrow, with a consensus expectation of 110K, compared to the previous release of 139K. While this data is typically released on the first Friday of every month, this month’s report comes on Thursday, July 3rd, due to Independence Day (July 4th), when US markets will be closed. For those newer to trading, the NFP is one of the most market-moving data releases globally, as it offers insight into the health of the US labor market for the month that just concluded—with the Unemployment Rate also published at the same time. The reason this data matters so much is because of the American consumption cycle, which is historically very strong. However, slowing job creation tends to reduce US consumer spending, which affects the performance of US stock indices, and consequently impacts demand for the US Dollar, in which most global assets are priced. This creates a domino effect: a stronger or weaker US workforce can shift expectations around Federal Reserve policy—including the likelihood of interest rate hikes or cuts—which then ripples across to other central banks and currency markets. Since the Great Financial Crisis (2008), Dollar demand has outperformed most major currencies, with US growth leading over other G7 economies, attracting significant global capital inflows. However, that dominance is beginning to fade, as Trump’s unpredictable policies and concerns over US fiscal and debt sustainability have made investors more cautious, encouraging greater international diversification. Let’s now explore: Seasonal trends for July payrollsRecent NFP surprises and how they’ve moved marketsWhat potential reactions traders might expect from this key report Read More: What levels to watch for the US dollar as markets head into July Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Canadian private equity firm Kinterra Capital has taken its takeover fight for Australian copper miner New World Resources (ASX: NWC) to the country’s Takeovers Panel, accusing rival bidder Central Asia Metals (LON: CAML) and NWR of breaching the Corporations Act. Kinterra alleges that both NWR and CAML were involved in insider trading, market manipulation and misleading conduct. The firm, which now owns over 19% of NWR, is seeking to block a planned A$10 million share placement to CAML and prevent the UK-based base metals producer from acquiring additional shares. The conflict follows a series of bidding rounds. CAML and NWR first agreed in May to a scheme of arrangement priced at A$0.053 per share. That offer was raised twice in response to Kinterra’s growing interest, with the current CAML proposal matching Kinterra’s latest bid of A$0.062 per share. CAML has also been buying NWR shares on-market, increasing its stake from 5% to over 12% between June 20 and June 27. Kinterra claims these trades were made using inside information, citing irregularities in timing and disclosure. The Takeovers Panel confirmed the reception of an urgent application from Kinterra seeking to prevent the placement announced by NWR on June 19. NWRs holds three copper projects in the southwestern of the United States. Its flagship Antler project in Arizona, located 15 km east of Yucca, hosts a high-grade, polymetallic deposit with 11.4 million tonnes at 4.1% copper equivalent. A 2024 prefeasibility study projects a 12-year mine life with expected production of 341,100 tonnes of copper equivalent. The company also controls the early-stage Javelin project in Arizona and the Tererro VMS project in New Mexico. Shares in NWR fell on Wednesday, closing at A$0.063 each in Sydney. That leaves the company with a market capitalization of around A$240 million ($215m).

The ‘MicroStrategy’ of Ethereum has emerged, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and Joe Lubin making moves to advance their respective ETH treasuries. Tom Lee has emerged as the Chairman of BitMine, which will hold ETH, while Lubin is already the Chairman of SharpLink Gaming. Lee and Lubin Raise $675 Million for Ethereum Treasury Strategy Tom Lee and Joe Lubin have already advanced their plans to create the ‘MicroStrategy’ of Ethereum. On Tom Lee’s end, BitMine announced a $250 million private placement to raise capital for its Ethereum strategy. The Bitcoin mining company stated that the net proceeds of the offering will be used to acquire ETH, which will become the firm’s primary reserve asset. BitMine plans to close this private placement on or about July 3, as it aims to become one of the largest publicly traded ETH holders with Tom Lee as the Chairman of the Board. On the other hand, SharpLink Gaming, with Joe Lubin’s help, is already the largest publicly traded Ethereum holder. The company earlier launched its Ethereum treasury with a $425 million ETH purchase. SharpLink Gaming recently announced that it has increased its total ETH holdings to 198,167 ($475 million), further establishing its position as the ‘MicroStrategy’ of Ethereum. Between June 23 and 30, it acquired 9,468 ETH for $22.8 million at an average price of $2,411 per ETH. During that same period, SharpLink Gaming also raised an additional $24.4 million through its At-The-Market (ATM) facility, selling $2.5 million shares. The company revealed that most of the proceeds will go toward further Ethereum acquisitions. As of June 30th, 100% of its ETH is staked, and the firm has earned 222 ETH in rewards since it began an ETH treasury company. Plans To Mirror Saylor’s Strategy In an X post, crypto commentator Eric Conner commented on how Ethereum is getting its own MicroStrategy era thanks to Lee and Lubin’s experiments. He highlighted BitMine’s proposed KPI of ‘ETH per share,’ which mirrors Saylor’s playbook, except that ETH earns yield in this instance through staking. Conner further remarked that BitMine’s mining DNA lets it spin up validators and tap DeFi rails, turning a once-capital-intensive operation into a cash-flow engine secured by Ethereum. On the other hand, he noted that Joe Lubin and SharpLink Gaming’s move is bigger. SharpLink is already staking its ETH holdings and plans to explore other DeFi strategies. With this move, the crypto commentator declared that ETH becomes the reserve while yielding bankroll growth. Lubin also recently raised the possibility of adding leverage to SharpLink Gaming’s Ethereum strategy, which will mirror Saylor’s strategy. He stated that they may do convertible equity and issue bonds at low rates, without putting the strategy at risk. At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $2,444, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

B2Gold (TSX: BTO, NYSE-A: BTG) says it has poured first gold from the Goose mine in Nunavut. The mine, part of the Back River gold district, becomes the company’s fourth producing mine and its first Canadian operating asset. “The commencement of gold production at the Goose mine marks an exciting step in B2Gold’s history, further diversifying and adding to the quality of the company’s existing global operating portfolio,” Clive Johnson, B2Gold’s CEO, stated in a press release earlier this week. “We look forward to many years of safe and successful production at the Goose mine, as well as further unlocking the value of the entire Back River gold district,” he added. On June 24, the Goose mine processing facilities began receiving the first ore, and the mill has consistently operated at approximately 50% of its nameplate capacity during this initial phase, as planned. During the third quarter of 2025, operations will focus on maintaining steady performance and increasing throughput to reach full design capacity, B2Gold said, adding that mine operators will synchronize the remaining generators and ensure all process circuits perform as designed. In the same quarter, the company expects the Goose mine to ramp up to commercial production, with production ranging between 120,000 and 150,000 oz. of gold for the year. As previously estimated, the mine’s annual gold output for the initial full six years of operations (2026 to 2031 inclusive) would reach approximately 300,000 oz. Meanwhile, B2Gold’s exploration programs have successfully upgraded its mineral resource base, and the company anticipates this trend to continue. In 2025, it allocated C$61 million towards exploration, with C$32 million assigned to the Back River district.

Highland Copper Company (TSXV: HI) says it has received local backing in Michigan for securing a state grant of $50 million to fund the construction of its Copperwood project, located in the Western Upper Peninsula. In a press release Wednesday, the Canadian copper developer said the community of Wakefield Township, where the Copperwood project resides, has taken “the proactive step” of directly requesting a $50 million grant from the Michigan legislature. The company is currently awaiting final approval from the state’s Senate Appropriations Committee with respect to a $50 million grant offered by the Michigan Economic Development Corporation in January 2024. Wakefield Township’s request, Highland Copper says, helps to create “a separate path for the potential approval of the regional infrastructure funding” — increasing its chances of securing the $50 million infrastructure funding. Copperwood project Copperwood is a wholly owned greenfield project located 22.5 km north of Wakefield, Michigan, and one of two assets held by Highland Copper in the state. The company envisions Copperwood as a low capital intensity project that can reach commercial production quickly, and has so far obtained all permits required to begin construction. Site preparations began as early as 2023. According to a feasibility study completed the same year, Copperwood is expected to produce 64.6 million lb. of copper and 106,966 oz. of silver annually over a projected 11.7-year mine life. Its after-tax net present value is estimated at $168 million, with an internal rate of return of 17.6%. Initial capital expenditures are set at $391 million. The underground operation will use a room-and-pillar mining method with an estimated average processing rate of 6,800 tonnes per day. Facilities on site will include grinding, flotation, concentrate thickening, concentrate filtration, storage, and loadout. This year, the company completed resourcing all engineering workstreams for the Copperwood project, and expects to complete the engineering design criteria by the third quarter. For the project’s construction, Highland Copper has been focused on mitigation activities required under its wetlands and streams permit, including the successful planting of nearly 20,000 trees in the newly constructed areas. The mitigation program represents the final site activities required before a construction decision, the company said. Barry O’Shea, CEO of Highland Copper, commented: “Highland is focused on key work programs that should enable a construction decision for Copperwood in 2026. This includes early site work to prepare for construction, progress on detailed engineering and metallurgical optimization, and continued advancement on state and federal funding opportunities.”

Writing some hours after the New York open, U.S. equities are mixed in performance today. The Dow Jones is currently trading -0.02% lower for the day, at around ~$44,557 The S&P 500 is currently trading 0.22% higher for the day, at around ~$6,220 The Nasdaq-100 is currency trading 0.54% higher for the day, at around ~$22,635 close Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30USD), OANDA, TradingView, 02/07/2025 Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30USD), OANDA, TradingView, 02/07/2025 Rallying over 6% in the last eight days alone, the daily RSI rates the Dow Jones as ‘overbought’ for the first time since October 2024 If bulls are able to stage another leg higher, expect resistance at previous highs of ~$45,060, then ~$45,506 Support can be found at $43,785, then $43,411 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Group Eleven Resources’ (TSXV: ZNG) says it has cut the strongest intercept yet at its Ballywire target in southwest Ireland, with a highlight result of 39.7 metres grading 5.6% zinc, 3.9% lead and 131 grams silver per tonne. Shares surged. That result, in hole 25-3552-35, drilled from 202.1 metres depth, included 54 metres at 4.72% zinc, 3.18% lead and 99.3 grams silver; and 5.6 metres grading 8.03% zinc, 8.54% lead and 370 grams silver, the company reported Wednesday. “Not only does this intercept extend strike and show exceptional mineralized thickness but also demonstrates zones of strong copper-silver values,” Group Eleven CEO Bart Jaworski said in a release. “This adds to growing evidence suggesting a deeper copper-silver horizon one to two hundred metres below the main Ballywire discovery horizon.” The result comes almost two months after the company reported it had drilled some of the highest grade silver intercepts in Ireland in more than 60 years. Group Eleven shares gained 18.5% to C$0.39 apiece on Wednesday morning in Toronto, for a market capitalization of C$86.2 million. Copper-silver strength Hole 25-3552-35 also cut copper-silver enriched zones below the main intercept, which included 5.5 metres grading 2.46% copper and 831 grams silver; and 3.5 metres at 0.63% copper and 224 grams silver. The results extended the strike length of the Ballywire discovery corridor by 50 metres to 1,300 metres. The corridor is hosted inside a 2.6-km-long trend of mineralization. Group Eleven is now drilling with three rigs at Ballywire. It’s completed more than 4,000 metres so far, out of this year’s target of 8,000 to 10,000 metres.

BHP (ASX, LSE: BHP) announced Wednesday it has signed contracts with COSCO Shipping Group for the charter of two ammonia dual-fuelled bulk carriers for transporting iron ore from Western Australia to Northeast Asia. The new vessels to be built under this arrangement will be two of only a handful of vessels in the world capable of using ammonia as a marine fuel, the Australian miner said. According to COSCO, ammonia is one of the most promising marine fuels with zero-carbon potential. Its ammonia-powered Newcastlemax vessels will stand at the forefront of technological and environmental advancement for the broader dry bulk sector. The charter contracts for the two vessels are expected to run for five years, with first delivery anticipated from 2028. BHP estimates that the vessels could greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 50% and up to 95% on a per voyage basis compared to a conventionally fuelled voyage, and it expects them to contribute towards a reduction in the GHG emissions intensity of the company’s chartered shipping. This announcement represents an important step toward lowering GHG emissions in the iron ore seaborne market and moving the maritime sector towards a decarbonized future, BHP stated, adding that it should also strengthen the demand for lower or low to zero GHG emissions marine fuels. These contracts will also contribute to BHP’s commitment as part of the First Movers Coalition, that by 2030, 10% of the group’s total products shipped to its customers using the company’s time charter vessels be shipped using zero GHG emissions fuels. Longstanding relationship BHP said it selected the Chinese state-owned COSCO following a rigorous expression of interest process, which evaluated safety, technical and commercial considerations. The two companies have a longstanding relationship and will work closely together alongside key regulatory bodies to ensure the vessels are delivered and operated safely. Meanwhile, BHP continues to work with the maritime industry to develop an ammonia bunkering plan – the process of fuelling ships with ammonia – for the two vessels when they are delivered from 2028. Sourcing lower and low to zero GHG emissions ammonia is subject to an ongoing tender process. “This is an exciting moment for BHP, COSCO Shipping and the maritime sector,” Emma Roberts, BHP’s vice-president of maritime and supply chain excellence, stated in a press release. “Together we are contributing to the industry’s ambition towards abatement of maritime greenhouse gas emissions through these first-generation ammonia dual-fuelled vessels.” “The contracts we are signing today—for two 210K DWT ammonia dual-fuel bulk carriers—are part of more than just a project to enable alternative marine fuels,” COSCO Shipping vice president Ji Lin said. “It also reflects the real progress being made to the Australia–China Green Shipping Corridor.” “Looking ahead, COSCO Shipping will continue to work closely with BHP to help accelerate the transition to net-zero shipping, scale up innovation, and help shape a more sustainable and resilient global supply chain,” Lin added.

Dogecoin is revisiting a technical juncture it has not seen since the months preceding its 2020–21 parabolic rally, according to a comparative chart published by the pseudonymous analyst Kaleo to his 705,000 followers on X. In the annotated TradingView graphic, weekly candles for DOGE-USD trace two multi-year falling wedge structures—one stretching from the January 2018 high to early 2021, and an almost mirror-image pattern extending from the May 2021 peak until today. History Repeating For Dogecoin? The first wedge resolved in late 2020 with a decisive breakout above a descending trend-line that had capped every rally for more than thirty-six months. Kaleo marks that moment with a yellow label reading “We are here” at roughly $0.003, immediately before the price detonated to the cycle top near $0.75 in May 2021. The current structure shows the same downward-sloping resistance—now anchored by successive lower highs from $0.16 in late 2022 to $0.11 in late 2023—finally giving way. Since the, DOGE has recorded higher highs in April at $0.22 and in December 2024 at $0.48. Friday’s close printed at $0.1604, still below the psychological $0.20 threshold but fractionally above the dotted secondary resistance that has defined the wedge’s upper boundary since mid-2022. Kaleo’s overlay projects the 2020 breakout trajectory forward in time, mapping a near-vertical thrust from the present $0.16 area to roughly $0.55, a brief consolidation, and a continuation leg that tops close to $3.50. While this upper target hasn’t ever been printed in DOGE’s history, the analyst’s replica path underscores how little overhead structure exists once price escapes the wedge. A key role in the chart are playing the two vertical dashed lines labeled “BTC Halving”: 12 May 2020 and 21 April 2024. In Kaleo’s read, Dogecoin’s macro reversals are synchronized with Bitcoin’s quadrennial supply shock, implying that the breakout could be a post-halving echo of the 2020 move. Price construction within the wedge also mirrors the earlier cycle: successive lower highs and higher lows compress volatility until an impulsive weekly bar pierces resistance. The horizontal line intersecting the new breakout—will be the first major test of post-wedge momentum. Below, the lower dashed boundary intersects in the region between $0.10 and $0.09; a weekly close beneath that floor would invalidate the fractal. Kaleo distills the setup into a single line: “Dogecoin under 20 cents is free.” On the chart’s scale, the red quote-box at $0.1604 sits a hair’s breadth under the $0.20 psychological band, reinforcing the idea that the risk-to-reward profile remains asymmetric so long as price stays below that number. Whether history rhymes as precisely as the analyst’s fractal suggests will hinge on broader market liquidity and Bitcoin’s dominance, but from a purely structural perspective the meme-coin has already checked the same boxes it did four years ago. And the US Federal Reserve money printer hasn’t even started roaring again. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.161.

From September this year, large mining and metals companies with business activities in the UK will be subject to a new “failure to prevent fraud” (FTP) offence. Introduced under the Economic Crime and Corporate Transparency Act 2023 (ECCTA), FTP applies to fraud committed by persons “associated” with a firm, where that offence is intended to benefit the organisation or its customers. “Associated persons” can be employees, agents or subsidiaries of a firm, and include those who perform services on behalf of the business. The use of local agents and third-party service providers, to perform functions such as investigating opportunities, liaising with government authorities, securing permits and permissions, are particularly common working arrangements for mining companies, especially those with branches or operations in multiple jurisdictions. As the FTP offence applies to all incorporated entities and partnerships that meet at least two of the three qualifying criteria of having more than 250 employees; turnover exceeding £36 million; and/or assets exceeding £18 million, this will take in a large swathe of UK-based mining and metals companies, as well as international companies with UK offices. The mining industry has historically been regarded as a high-risk area for fraud, as mining and metal refining operations are often located in jurisdictions or regions where opportunities and incentives to commit fraud are prevalent. Managing cost is also crucial in the mining sector due to fluctuating demand and prices for metals and minerals, which increases pressure to control costs and meet targets by whatever means necessary. Additionally, the mining industry’s long, complicated supply chains are typically opaque and can provide opportunities for fraud to occur. Focus of FTP The FTP new offence shifts the focus from preventing frauds of which the business is the victim, to fraud committed by employees or associated third parties that benefit the organisation itself. Examples of fraud committed by companies in the mining and metals sector for their own benefit might include materials not being delivered in the quantity or quality that has been procured; claiming there are employees on the payroll who don’t exist – for example to comply with local employment regulations; or falsification of documents, such as permits, delivery notes or invoices to speed up what can be frustratingly slow projects. It is important to note that, for the purposes of the new FTP offence, fraud is distinct from corruption, which can include paying bribes, an illegal practice that is dealt with by the UK Bribery Act, which came into force in July 2011. Like the Bribery Act, the new FTP offence is expected to significantly impact mining and metals companies’ compliance obligations in the UK and internationally. Preventing fraud FTP is a strict liability criminal offence, which means that where an underlying fraud can be proven, the organisation will be deemed liable for failing to prevent it. Provided the fraud can be (legally and practically) prosecuted in the UK, if convicted, the firm may receive an unlimited fine in addition to significant reputational damage. The only defence to the offence is for a firm to show it had reasonable and proportionate controls in place to manage the risk. In most mining and metals companies, as in other firms, the biggest risk will be offences committed by employees or people who work for the business in some capacity. According to the 2024 Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) global Report to the Nations, which covers all types of fraud including those where businesses are the victim of frauds committed by either insiders or third parties, 78% of frauds reported last year were committed by employees (37%) or managers (41%), while the remaining 19% of frauds were committed by owners or executives. This means mining company HR teams will need to play an important role in helping to build effective control frameworks, providing advice on the people risks inherent in choices made by the business, and using data collected and held on individual workers and the workforce as a whole to help spot where there is a risk of fraud being committed. But even where the risks are clear, identifying fraud before it takes place can be tricky – especially for globally spread-out mining companies. Most mining companies will have designated officers with responsibility for bribery and fraud as part of a wider compliance remit. However, many will now need to assess and understand their high-risk areas in relation to the new FTP offence and consider what additional controls need to be put in place. Fraud red flags While motivations to commit fraud vary considerably, human pressures – such as personal financial difficulties, demanding sales targets, over-work, discontent with working conditions and performance concerns – are common drivers. If a mining companies’ reward or bonus structure is weighted in a way that incentivises profit at all costs, this may serve as a business culture motivation for employees to breach fraud rules for their own personal benefit, which may have a knock-on effect that creates corporate criminal liability. The cyclical nature of mining means that lay-offs and job losses are common, which can also cause employees stress. HR teams are not always privy to employees’ feelings, but in many cases problems such as work-related stress and performance issues, which are red flag indicators for fraud, will be notified to HR and documented. ACFE’s 2024 report data showed that almost half of fraud perpetrators (45%) experienced at least one HR-related red flag, with poor performance evaluations (14%), fear of job loss (12%), and being denied a raise or promotion (11%) cited as the most common issues. However, for most mining companies, these red flag indicators will not make it out of the HR department and no additional safeguarding will be put in place to manage the potential higher risk. There are good reasons for this, such as restrictions on sharing personal data under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) as well as general expectations of confidentiality by employees who confide personal problems in their HR colleagues. Some barriers to sharing information, such as siloed working practices and lack of awareness of how to spot fraud risk and deal with it can be overcome with appropriate training, policies and processes. Provided the HR team has identified and carefully considered a lawful basis (of which six exist under the GDPR) for sharing an employee’s personal information, this will be allowed under the GDPR. In the case of FTP, the lawful basis is likely to be “legal obligation” – i.e. the data processing is necessary for the organisation to comply with the law. Even where HR may feel less able to report on individuals, they can take responsibility for mapping patterns and escalating those. For example, if a number of people complain they cannot hit their targets, HR teams should be able to spot these patterns and query with managers whether those targets are in the right place. Other patterns or trends might include parts of the business where has been a lot of “churn” – i.e. people leaving the business and being replaced by new recruits, or there are outstanding vacancies in senior roles; these might mean there is less oversight of particular functions due to instability or lack of people to manage teams, which might give an opportunity for fraud to occur more readily. For individuals who report feeling stressed or unhappy with their jobs, or who are on performance improvement plans (PIPs), it is sensible to ascertain whether those people have non-essential access to material or assets that give them opportunities to commit fraud, particularly if they have moved roles during their employment and may have historic access to sensitive material. Mining HR teams should also consider working with senior management and team managers to instill a culture and appropriate channels where employees feel able to speak up, either about their own feelings or concerns about colleagues’ behaviour in relation to fraud. Government guidance on FTP states that top level commitment from business leaders is required to ensure fraud risk is minimised, detected and prevented. ___________________ Sarah Partridge-Smith is a counsel in the Regulatory and Investigations practice and Alex McGregor is a partner in the Litigation practice at Dentons.

📉 Emprego nos EUA Surpreende Negativamente e Abala Dólar: ADP Report Mostra Queda de 33 mil Vagas em Junho Dados alarmantes indicam deterioração no mercado de trabalho privado dos EUA. Pressão aumenta sobre o Fed em meio à guerra comercial e incertezas fiscais. Por Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado – Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Análises Fundamentais e Técnicas com Visão Institucional 📌 Dados do Relatório ADP (Junho) Resultado atual: -33.000 empregos Expectativa do mercado: +105.000 empregos Dado anterior (maio): +37.000 empregos ➡️ Surpresa extremamente negativa para os mercados. ➡️ Pior resultado desde a pandemia e o primeiro dado negativo desde 2021. 🔎 Interpretação Técnica e Fundamental O relatório de empregos privados da ADP veio muito abaixo do esperado, gerando um choque de realidade sobre a fragilidade do mercado de trabalho norte-americano. A expectativa era de uma recuperação robusta após os resultados fracos de maio, mas o número negativo acendeu o sinal vermelho para o Federal Reserve. Combinado com as novas tarifas comerciais impostas pelo governo Trump e a elevação da incerteza fiscal, os dados reforçam a tese de que a economia dos EUA pode estar à beira de uma desaceleração mais severa do que o inicialmente previsto. 💬 Reação das Agências de Rating Pouco após a divulgação dos dados, a Fitch Ratings afirmou: Este posicionamento reforça o alerta de que a escalada protecionista e os desequilíbrios fiscais dos EUA estão afetando a confiança internacional, com reflexo direto nos Treasuries, no dólar e no apetite por risco. 📊 Impactos Imediatos no Mercado USD: Forte pressão vendedora nos principais pares, com destaque para EUR/USD e XAU/USD. XAU/USD (ouro): Ganhou força com a fraqueza do dólar e aumento da aversão ao risco. BTC/USD: Movimentos voláteis, com suporte na faixa dos US$ 105.000 sendo testado após rejeição do breakout. 📈 O Que Esperar a Seguir 🔹 O resultado ADP coloca forte pressão sobre o Fed para acelerar os cortes de juros, com chances reais de corte já na reunião deste mês (julho). 🔹 O mercado agora aguardará com grande atenção os dados do Payroll oficial na sexta-feira (05/07), que poderão confirmar ou invalidar a tendência de enfraquecimento estrutural no emprego. 🔹 O ouro permanece com viés altista estrutural em meio à perda de confiança no dólar, desvalorização da moeda americana (-10% no ano) e compras recordes de ouro por bancos centrais. ✅ Conclusão ExpertFX O dado ADP negativo é um divisor de águas na narrativa de “resiliência econômica” promovida pelo Fed nas últimas semanas. A deterioração rápida do mercado de trabalho, somada à instabilidade causada pelas tarifas, pode forçar mudança abrupta na política monetária dos EUA ainda no terceiro trimestre. O ouro deve continuar a ser beneficiado como reserva de valor e proteção contra instabilidade fiscal, inflação importada e perda de confiança no dólar. 📍 Acompanhe nossas análises completas com leitura institucional da ExpertFX School.

The Japanese yen is negative ground on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.06, up 0.47%. US-Japan trade talks stumble over .... rice The US and Japan are racing to reach a trade deal before a deadline of July 9. There are some serious roadblocks to a deal, including the current US tariff of 25% on Japanese cars and opening Japan's agricultural sector, particularly rice. President Trump has insisted that Japan import American-grown rice, but the Japanese government says that is unacceptable. Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akawaza said earlier this week that Japan would not "sacrifice the agricultural sector", while Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said that foreign rice imports would threaten Japan's food security. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

📉 Bitcoin Testa Nível Crítico Após Falha no Breakout: O Que Esperar Agora? BTC/USD volta para região de suporte após rejeição técnica; mercado testa paciência dos compradores com nova fase de consolidação. Por Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado – Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Análises Técnicas e Fundamentais com Visão Institucional 📌 Contexto Técnico Atual O Bitcoin falhou em manter-se acima da zona de resistência dos US$ 108.850, marcada em verde no gráfico, e recuou com força até a base da região de liquidez mais baixa, sinalizada em azul. Este movimento indica uma rejeição do breakout da estrutura de triângulo descendente (ponto 3), levando o preço de volta para níveis vistos há apenas dois dias, em torno de US$ 106.100–105.700 — região chave para definição da próxima tendência. 📊 Estrutura de Mercado 📉 Topo inferior 1–2–3 formado: Rejeição clara do padrão de continuação de alta. 🔵 Zona de suporte retestada: Região entre US$ 105.700 e US$ 106.100 foi defendida, por enquanto. 📈 Retorno à faixa de congestão anterior: BTC segue operando dentro do range entre US$ 102.100 e US$ 108.800. 🧠 Leitura Institucional ✅ O Que Observar nos Próximos Dias 🔹 Fechamento diário acima da zona azul: Será necessário um Daily Close acima de US$ 106.800 para retomar a força e tentar nova alta. 🔹 Reteste bem-sucedido: Após o fechamento, será fundamental observar um reteste sem perder o suporte recém-estabelecido. 🔹 Quebra da LTB (linha vermelha): O rompimento da linha de tendência descendente marcada no gráfico será um gatilho técnico claro de retomada da alta, mirando novamente os US$ 111.965. ⚠️ Riscos e Possível Cenário Negativo Caso o suporte atual falhe: Próxima região de suporte está entre US$ 102.100 a US$ 100.000 (confluência de liquidez e suporte diagonal). A perda desse patamar pode abrir espaço para queda até US$ 96.300 (última zona marcada por acúmulo e desbalanceamento). 📈 Conclusão e Projeção ExpertFX Apesar da falha na quebra da resistência superior, o BTC ainda mantém estrutura de suporte saudável, respeitando zonas de interesse institucional. O mercado permanece em estado de espera por catalisadores macroeconômicos, como: Decisões do Fed sobre juros (próxima reunião em julho); Volatilidade no índice DXY e curva de juros americana; Apetite de risco dos fundos institucionais pós-reuniões do FOMC. 🎯 Oportunidade: Para traders técnicos e institucionais, a configuração atual representa um ponto-chave de decisão: 📍 Acima de US$ 106.800 com reteste: entrada compradora rumo aos US$ 111.900 📍 Perda de US$ 105.700: aumento do risco de retorno aos US$ 102.100 e até US$ 96.300 Fique atento às atualizações na ExpertFX School. Receba alertas técnicos, leitura institucional e gatilhos de entrada antes dos grandes movimentos!

The Australian dollar is lower on Thursday. In the Europen session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6556, down 0.41% on the day. Australia's retail sales lower than expected at 0.2% Australia's retail sales posted a small gain of 0.2% in May, up from a flat reading in April but shy of the consensus of 0.4%. The gain was driven by a strong rebound in sales in clothing and footwear, while food sales declined. On an annual basis, retail sales rose 3.3%, down sharply from 3.8% in April and the weakest pace of growth in six months. RBA expected to trim next week Today's weak data has bolstered expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower rates at next week's meeting. The money markets have priced in a cut at 97%, which would lower the cash rate to 3.6%. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

🌍 Bancos Centrais Disparam Compras de Ouro em Maio e Reacendem Tese de Alta Estrutural do XAU/USD 🔔 Compras líquidas aumentam após dois meses de queda, sinalizando retorno da pressão institucional sobre o ouro. Por Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado Financeiro – Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Análises Profundas em Tempo Real 📈 Compras líquidas de ouro por bancos centrais voltam a crescer em maio Dados divulgados pelo World Gold Council em parceria com o FMI revelam uma reviravolta significativa no mercado de ouro global: os bancos centrais aumentaram novamente suas compras líquidas de ouro em maio de 2025, encerrando um breve ciclo de desaceleração nos meses anteriores. O gráfico divulgado mostra um aumento expressivo nas compras brutas de ouro (em azul claro), enquanto as vendas se mantiveram relativamente contidas (em roxo), resultando em um salto positivo nas compras líquidas (em amarelo). A movimentação confirma que o apetite dos bancos centrais por ouro continua intacto, e mais ainda: está se acelerando novamente. 📊 O Que Isso Significa para o Mercado? Essa retomada das compras por bancos centrais marca um novo capítulo no reposicionamento estratégico global: 🔹 A acumulação líquida, que já superava 1.000 toneladas por ano desde 2022, permanece sólida; 🔹 Em média, os bancos centrais vêm comprando quase 300 toneladas por ano, por instituição; 🔹 Maio de 2025 registrou o maior volume líquido em três meses, sinalizando retomada institucional em meio à incerteza geopolítica e monetária. 🧠 Análise Institucional por Igor Pereira 📌 Por que os Bancos Centrais estão comprando mais ouro? Perda de confiança no dólar após aumento de tarifas, déficits e uso político do sistema financeiro global; Desdolarização avançando nos BRICS+, com China, Rússia e Índia liderando o movimento; Busca por reservas neutras e resilientes, diante da crescente instabilidade geopolítica (Oriente Médio, Taiwan, Irã); Alta recente do ouro não representa topo, mas sim o início de uma nova fase de valorização estrutural. 🌐 Impacto no XAU/USD A continuidade das compras por bancos centrais gera uma base sólida de demanda institucional para o ouro, o que implica: Indicador Econômico Impacto no XAU/USD Liquidez emergencial via Fed Suporte de alta Queda do dólar em 2025 (-10%) Pressão compradora Tensões com China e Irã Demanda por refúgio Inflação "travada" acima de 2% Proteção estrutural 📉 O Sistema Monetário Está em Transição Enquanto o dólar americano enfrenta a pior performance semestral desde 1985, com perdas de mais de 10% e pressão crescente sobre os Treasuries, o ouro avança silenciosamente como a âncora de confiança global. Nas palavras do próprio Nassim Taleb: 🥇 Conclusão: Ainda é cedo para falar em "topo do ouro" Apesar dos mais de 75 recordes históricos do XAU/USD somente em 2025, os dados mostram que não estamos próximos de uma exaustão, mas sim no início de uma reprecificação global do ouro como ativo-base. Com os bancos centrais liderando o fluxo institucional, e investidores individuais ainda marginalmente expostos ao metal, o ciclo de alta pode estar apenas começando. 📢 Acompanhe nossas análises diárias do mercado de ouro (XAU/USD), com relatórios institucionais, leitura de fluxo da Comex, ETFs, bancos centrais e estratégias de posicionamento. Igor Pereira Analista de Mercado | Membro Junior Wall Street NYSE ExpertFX School – Desde 2017 no radar do investidor profissional

The relentless inflow streak into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have come to an abrupt halt amidst renewed bearish momentum and political headwinds. On 1 July 2025, the 12 US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively recorded $342.25 million in net outflows. This marks the end of a robust 15ßdaz run that had seen $4.73 billion pour into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since mid-June. While Fidelity’s FBTC saw the largest withdrawal with $172.73 million in outflows, Grayscale’s GBTC saw $119.51 million redeemed. ARK21Shares’ ARKB recorded $27.03 million in outflows. Bitwise’s BITB registered $22.98 million in redemptions. This has been a rather slow quarter for Bitcoin. But in contrast, ETH-focused funds collectively drew in $40.68 million in net inflows. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Impact of Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ BTC ▲0.75% is hovering near $107,000, hardly on the verge of a knockout. However, the sharp reversal in Bitcoin ETF flows coincided with the US Senate’s passage of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” It is a $3.3 trillion spending package passed by a razor thin 51-50 margin. Unsurprisingly, Vice President JD Vance casted the tie-breaking vote. However, the bill notably excluded any provisions related to Bitcoin, crypto mining or staking. The omission disappointed many in the crypto industry. Explore: Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Bitcoin Exempt: Best Meme Coin to Buy? Crypto ETFs Guidance: What the SEC Now Requires From Issuers The US Securities and Exchange Commission has finally given crypto ETF issuers something they’ve been asking for: clarity. On 1 July 2025, the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance dropped a detailed guide outlining what applicants need to include in their filings if they want any shot at getting a cryptocurrency ETF approved. The crypto ETF guidance comes at a time when interest in Ethereum-based products is continuously rising. It’s not exactly light reading, but it’s a serious step forward for firms hoping to launch funds tied to digital assets like Ethereum or token baskets. Rather than keep issuers guessing, the SEC is laying it all out, from valuation to custody to who’s checking the math behind the scenes. Explore: Crypto ETF Guidance: What the SEC Now Requires From Issuers Key Takeaways The sharp reversal in Bitcoin ETF flows coincided with the US Senate’s passage of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” The SEC released detailed crypto ETF filing guidance, requiring full disclosure on valuation, custody, and surveillance systems. The post Bitcoin ETFs See Interrupted Inflow Streak Amid Bearish BTC Price appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

According to CNBC, corporate treasuries around the globe have surpassed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Bitcoin (BTC) acquisitions for three consecutive quarters. This indicates a growing interest among public companies to adopt strategies similar to those pioneered by Strategy, especially in a more favorable regulatory environment under President Donald Trump’s administration. Bitcoin Holdings Surge Data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows that public companies acquired approximately 131,000 Bitcoin in the second quarter of the year, marking an 18% increase in their BTC holdings. In contrast, exchange-traded funds managed to secure about 111,000 Bitcoin, representing an 8% growth during the same period. Nick Marie, head of research at Ecoinometrics, emphasized that the motivations behind these purchases differ significantly. While institutional buyers utilizing ETFs seek exposure to BTC for a variety of reasons, Marie asserted that public companies are primarily focused on accumulating Bitcoin to enhance shareholder value. The market dynamics have also shown that public company BTC holdings increased by 4% in April, a month marked by significant volatility following President Trump’s announcement of initial tariffs. During the same time frame, ETF holdings rose by only 2%. Marie noted that public companies are less concerned with Bitcoin’s current market price, prioritizing the growth of their Bitcoin reserves to appear more attractive to potential investors. ETFs Still Dominate In This Key Metric Despite the increasing activity from public companies, Bitcoin ETFs remain the largest holders of the cryptocurrency, collectively holding over 1.4 million BTC, or about 6.8% of the total capped supply of 21 million coins. Public companies, on the other hand, hold around 855,000 Bitcoin, approximately 4% of the total supply. The recent surge in corporate BTC accumulation is also a reflection of significant regulatory changes favoring the crypto industry. The last time ETFs outperformed public companies in Bitcoin purchases was during the third quarter of 2024, prior to Trump’s re-election. Several notable companies have entered the Bitcoin market recently. GameStop began acquiring Bitcoin after its board approved it as a treasury reserve asset earlier this year. Similarly, health-care firm KindlyMD merged with Nakamoto, a Bitcoin investment company, while investor Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap launched its own BTC purchasing initiative and plans to go public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Direct Exposure May Ease Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, continues to lead the charge in the Bitcoin treasury space with approximately 597,000 Bitcoin in its possession. Following closely is Bitcoin miner Mara Holdings, which holds nearly 50,000 coins. Ben Werkman, chief investment officer at Swan BTC, remarked on the challenges smaller firms face in trying to match Strategy’s scale. He predicted that institutional capital will continue to gravitate toward Strategy due to its deep liquidity and established presence. Looking ahead, Marie suggested that the number of companies adhering to a BTC treasury strategy may dwindle over the next decade as the market matures. He noted that as more firms enter the space, the individual impact of each company will likely diminish. Additionally, as Bitcoin becomes more normalized, investor constraints regarding direct exposure may fade. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

This morning's ADP release was not enough to trigger large volatility in Markets. The data came in at -33K vs a consensus of 95K, a consequential miss that led to a subdued market reaction. US Equity futures had gone up in the overnight session with the S&P 500 just grazing new all-time highs (6,229 on its CFD) and markets are now correcting, with however a slow but steady grind. ADP Employment measures private employment by US Firms and concerns around 30 millions of Americans , which represents a bit less than 10% of the US Population – Its correlation to the Non-Farm Payrolls data is not significant, a reason why reactions to ADP releases are less accentuated than the more global US NFP. The miss is nonetheless quite large and it will be interesting to see in the upcoming months how Trump's policies influence the difference in Private and Public US Employment, if there are disparities and how much of a difference in the economy this potential disparity generates. The current picture in US Indices point to similar rebalancing flows from Tech to Consumer Defensive/Manufacturing with the Nasdaq again leading on the downside (-0.40%) and the Dow Jones on top of Indices (-0.10%) – Futures point towards a small gap down at the 9:30 opening Bell. The US Dollar is starting to build a low as a potential technical bottom is attained. close Nasdaq 4H Chart, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq 4H Chart, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq chart looks more balanced, subject to bear strenght compared to the US 30 chart seen right before. Prices broke through the upwards trendline that lead to the new All-time high price discovery (22,751 on the CFD) and have started to form what resembles a Head and Shoulders pattern – To supplement that, both the MA 20 and 50 are acting as immediate resistance and are starting to slope downwards. RSI Momentum is also in the same direction but close to oversold, therefore it will be key to see how markets react to the upcoming Opening Bell. Levels to watch for the Nasdaq: Local ATH Top – 22,700 Region ResistancePivot Zone 22,450Previous ATH Support Zone 22,250 (confluence with 4H MA 200) Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

HSBC has raised its average gold price forecasts for the next two years, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong investor demand for bullion, as Reuters first reported. The bank now expects gold to average $3,215/oz in 2025 and $3,125/oz in 2026, up from previous estimates of $3,015 and $2,915, respectively. The updated outlook reflects a bullish view on gold’s role as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty. Spot gold reached a record high of $3,500.05 an ounce in late April. The metal was trading at $3,348.50 Wednesday morning. “We anticipate a wide and volatile trading range of $3,600-3,100/oz for the rest of the year and year-end prices of $3,175/oz for 2025 and $3,025/oz for 2026,” the bank said in a note on Tuesday. HSBC analysts noted that central bank gold purchases will moderate on further rallies above $3,300 and could increase should gold correct nearer to $3,000. On the physical front, the bank said further gold price gains above $3,500 could lead to reduced demand in the jewellery, coin and small bar markets, particularly in economies such as India and China. Goldman Sachs recently echoed a similarly bullish stance, forecasting gold to reach $3,700 by year-end and $4,000 by mid‑2026, with potential upside to $4,500 in extreme risk scenarios. Goldman also expects gold to continue outperforming silver, which is under pressure from weakening industrial demand, particularly in China’s solar sector.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, long‑term Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized gains last seen during the October 2024 market dip. Right now, those holders show an average profit of 220% on coins they bought and held for the long run. That figure is surprisingly low given Bitcoin’s recent surge back above $107,000. Lower Profit Levels Than Previous Peaks Darkfost used the MVRV ratio — market value relative to the average cost paid by long‑term holders — to track these shifts. In March 2024, when Bitcoin pushed up to $74,500, MVRV hit 300%. Then in December 2024, at the $108,000 peak, it climbed to 350%. By contrast, today’s 220% gain reflects the fact that many long‑term holders bought in at much higher levels than earlier in the cycle. Price Needs To Rise To Match Past Gains Based on an average cost basis of $33,800, Bitcoin would need to climb back to $135,200 just to restore that 300% profit level. If the market aimed to hit the 357% mark again, prices would have to reach roughly $154,400. Both figures track with what history tells us about investor behavior — people tend to sell when profits hit big round numbers. Historical Cycle Comparisons Looking farther back shows how much room remains. In December 2017, at the $19,500 top, long‑term holders saw unrealized profits of 4,000%. Then during the 2020/2021 cycle, Bitcoin spiked to $63,000 in April 2021 and MVRV topped out at 1,230%. By November 2021, prices hit about $68,400 but unrealized gains for long‑term holders had already fallen to 340%. An analyst’s recent outlook lines up with this math, first pegging a cycle top at $135,000 in October 2024. After reviewing new data in May 2025, they revised the target range to $120,000–$150,000 and suggested a likely peak between August and September 2025. That range overlaps with the price levels needed to bring MVRV back to earlier highs. Room For More Upside, But Watch The Risks Based on latest figures, Bitcoin is trading at $106,750, roughly flat over the last 24 hours. Lower profit margins mean fewer long‑term holders are itching to sell right now, which could leave more fuel for higher prices. Still, on‑chain numbers don’t capture the whole picture. Spot-market flows, ETF moves and wider economic shifts can all trigger sharp reversals. For now, the evidence points to a market that isn’t overheated. If Bitcoin follows past cycles, it may have farther to climb before long‑term holders lock in gains at levels seen in March or December 2024. But investors should balance these on‑chain metrics with real‑world signals — and be ready for whatever comes next. Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView

USDT issuer Tether has been dealt a blow in its multibillion-dollar lawsuit with Celsius after a US bankruptcy judge ruled that the lawsuit can proceed. The judge denied Tether’s attempt to dismiss claims that it “improperly” liquidated Celsius’s Bitcoin collateral during the crypto lender’s collapse in 2022. Per court documents filed in New York on June 30, Celsius claims that Tether executed a “fire sale” of over 39,500 Bitcoin in June 2022, which it then used against Celsius’s $812 million debt without following pre-agreed procedures. Celsius Bitcoin Lawsuit Against Tether – Claims That Tether’s Liquidation Cost The Firm Over $4B In Bitcoin At Current Prices Celsius believes that Tether’s actions in the Summer of 2022 breached its lending agreement, violated the principle of “good faith and fair dealing” under British Virgin Islands law, and constituted fraudulent and preferential transfers that are avoidable under the US Bankruptcy Code. The complaint stems from a margin call Tether issued as the Bitcoin price plummeted. Celsius argues that Tether sold its collateral before a pre-agreed 10-hour waiting period, liquidating the BTC position at an average price of $20,656 below market levels, and later transferring the proceeds to its own Bitfinex accounts. In the filing, Celsius alleges that Tether’s liquidation of its Bitcoin position cost it over $4 billion worth of BTC at current prices. It further claims that Tether’s actions involved US-based communications, personnel, and financial accounts. DISCOVER: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now This is key, as if proven true, it would establish sufficient ties for US jurisdiction, despite Tether’s incorporation in the British Virgin Islands and Hong Kong. In an early win for Celsius, the US judge agreed Celsius made a plausible case that the transfers and alleged misconduct were “domestic” in nature, rejecting Tether’s argument that the claims fall outside of US bankruptcy law jurisdiction. Last year, in August, Tether attempted to dismiss the lawsuit in its entirety, claiming that the US court lacked jurisdiction and that Celsius’s allegations fail to state valid claims. While the court dismissed some counts at the time, it allowed Celsius’s key breach of contract, fraudulent transfer and preference claims to proceed. TetherPriceMarket CapUSDT$157.85B24h7d30d1yAll time Tether CEO In The News After Refuting Claims The Company Is Going Public Last month, in June, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the company has no plans to go public, following much speculation. Ardoino responded to rumours of a potential Tether IPO, dismissing the idea outright. This public denial did not stop the chatter, with analysts claiming a public offering could value the stablecoin giant at over $500 billion, which would put it higher than global corporations such as Walmart or Coca-Cola. Ardoino did, however, call the $515 billion valuation a “beautiful number,” although he suggested it might even undervalue Tether, considering its sizable holdings of Bitcoin and gold. Tether’s flagship product, the USD-backed stablecoin $USDT, is the third-largest digital asset, trailing only Ethereum and Bitcoin, with a market cap of over $157 billion. It is by far the most used stablecoin on the market, evidenced by its $38 billion daily trading volume. (SOURCE) Circle’s USDC stablecoin, widely recognised as the second-largest USD-backed stablecoin, has a market capitalisation of $61 billion and a daily trading volume of only $7 billion. Circle has been in the news recently after going public following a successful IPO. It is up 11% daily, trading for $192 and a market cap of around $42 billion. Considering that Tether’s USDT stablecoin processes nearly the same daily trading volume as Circle’s entire market cap, it is no wonder that Paolo Ardoino believes $515 billion for Tether may be undervalued. Meanwhile, Tether continues to expand its African footprint. Yesterday, it announced that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Zanzibar e-Government Authority (eGaz) to advance digital asset education and financial innovation. The stablecoin issuer plans to integrate its USD-backed $USDT and gold-backed $XAUT stablecoins into the Zanmalipo payment gateway, improving available options for users locally. It is part of Tether’s long-term expansion strategy for Africa, aimed at boosting digital asset adoption on the continent. EXPLORE: 10 Best AI Crypto Coins to Invest in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Judge Dismisses Tether’s Dismissal Bid In $4B Bitcoin Lawsuit With Celsius appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is on track to report an impressive $14 billion in unrealized gains from its extensive Bitcoin accumulation strategy. Co-founded by Michael Saylor, the company has successfully transformed itself from a struggling enterprise software provider into a leading leveraged Bitcoin proxy, drawing comparisons to major corporate powerhouses such as Amazon and JPMorgan Chase. Strategy Set To Post Record Profits According to a recent Bloomberg report, Strategy’s anticipated profits stem largely from the rebound in Bitcoin prices and recent changes in accounting practices that allow the firm to value its substantial cryptocurrency holdings at market rates. Analysts project that while Strategy’s software business may only generate approximately $112.8 million in revenue for the second quarter, the surge in Bitcoin prices has significantly bolstered its financial outlook. This potential record profit comes after a turbulent period for the company, which faced criticism from notable investors like Jim Chanos. Chanos has publicly derided Saylor’s valuation model, describing it as “financial gibberish,” while Saylor has countered that Chanos fails to grasp the intricacies of his approach. Despite the skepticism, Mark Palmer, an analyst at Benchmark Capital, noted Saylor’s resilience, stating that he has consistently outperformed not only his critics but also the broader market. Since Saylor initiated his Bitcoin buying spree, Strategy’s stock has skyrocketed over 3,300%. In the same time frame, Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 1,000%, while the S&P 500 has advanced around 115%. The company’s shares saw a 40% increase in the second quarter, significantly outpacing the S&P’s 11% rise. $64 Billion Bitcoin Value The recent accounting change at Strategy, which took effect in the first quarter, allows the firm to recognize the market value of its Bitcoin holdings—currently valued at about $64 billion—resulting in substantial swings in reported earnings. Previously, the company treated its Bitcoin similar to intangible assets, which limited their ability to recognize gains unless the assets were sold. This change has positioned Strategy to capture the full benefit of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. At the start of the second quarter, Strategy held 528,185 BTC, valued at over $43.5 billion based on market prices. An increase in the value of Bitcoin of 30% during the quarter alone contributed more than $13 billion to the company’s unrealized gains. Cumulatively, weekly purchases have brought the company closer to holding 600,000 BTC. Despite the positive outlook, the company has faced legal challenges, including several class-action lawsuits claiming that executives misled shareholders regarding the first-quarter losses. In response, Strategy has pledged to vigorously defend against these accusations. As of press time, BTC trades at $106,100, down 5% from its current record high of $111,800 during May’s rally. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com