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Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has delivered a Bitcoin update suggesting that the asset could be entering the “perfect storm” phase of its four-year cycle. But in a twist that defies traditional cycle models, Loukas now sees the possibility of a delayed blowoff top extending into early 2026 and introduces the prospect of a rare double-cycle structure. In his latest installment of the Four-Year Journey published on June 26, Loukas reaffirms that the current Bitcoin cycle — which began with the November 2022 low — remains structurally intact and is nearing its climactic phase. “This is certainly the most bullish phase of the four-year cycle,” Loukas states. “We’re now sort of on the cusp of what traditionally has been the beginning or the blowoff phase of a cycle.” Bitcoin Blowoff Delayed? What separates this cycle, according to Loukas, is the unique combination of maturing fundamentals and a confluence of macro, institutional, and regulatory forces. These include continued ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and a radical policy shift under the Trump administration, including what he anticipates may be a pro-crypto Fed chair appointment. Together, these forces are creating what he calls a “perfect storm” for price expansion. Loukas is cautious about providing hard price targets but acknowledges a doubling effect that could send Bitcoin from its current range near $110,000 to as high as $150,000–$170,000 in the short term. Historically, such phases have seen Bitcoin double in a matter of months once new highs are breached. “A breakout to the upside can see Bitcoin essentially almost double in a very short period of time,” he says, pointing to prior legs of the cycle where Bitcoin surged from $25K to $75K or $50K to $100K within five-month windows. Yet what makes this latest report particularly notable is Loukas’ introduction of a more complex structure he calls a “double cycle blowoff.” He describes this as a fusion of two adjacent four-year cycle peaks — a concept that could delay the market top to as late as February or March 2026, well beyond the traditional 35-month cycle peak window. “If we’ve still got sort of a six to seven month expansion to a peak… that would lead us into maybe even a February or March peak,” Loukas explains. This scenario, while still within the broader cyclical rhythm, would imply a 39–41 month uptrend rather than the typical 33–35 months. “I do think it’s time… 15–16 years into Bitcoin’s adoption,” he notes, referencing the arc from early tech believers to deep institutional penetration. The implications are significant. A delayed peak could mean a much shorter corrective phase — or even the emergence of a second explosive rally as the next cycle begins, creating what Loukas describes as the illusion of one extended supercycle. “There’s a significant upside potential still to come in this cycle,” he says, warning that many may be caught off guard. “You don’t want to be surprised.” BTC Price Targets Loukas also addresses the broader sentiment picture, noting that the typical mania — the kind that marked tops in 2017 and late 2021 — has not yet materialized. “We haven’t seen that sort of blowoff, absolute extreme sentiment that you typically would see near the top,” he says. He sees this as further evidence that the final phase is still ahead. Regarding the price target for a supercycle, Loukas ponders: “I can see numbers in the quarter of a million level. I can also see some really crazy numbers when you see prior manias and bubbles in different asset classes, […] Seeing a 5x, 6x, 7x move from here over a 2-year period in a major mania is not really a stretch. Even from a market cap perspective, it’s not a stretch, seeing where gold is already heading through the $20 trillion level and well beyond.” While he emphasizes that these ideas are probabilistic and not predictions, Loukas does warn of the long-term consequences if his double-cycle thesis plays out. A massive influx of institutional capital, sovereign interest, and retail mania could ultimately trigger Bitcoin’s first true secular bear market, one not measured in months but in years. “If you consider a mania leadup where so many treasury companies and traditional flows come together and peak… the unwinding process just takes a lot longer.” For now, Loukas’ model portfolio remains partially in cash after trimming some positions near recent highs, reflecting a conservative approach tailored to capital preservation. Still, he acknowledges that younger or more risk-tolerant investors may view this moment as a final accumulation window before the next phase begins. “This video is very, very bullish, right?” he quips. At press time, BTC traded at $107,317.

Bitcoin entra novamente em zona de acumulação institucional semelhante à de 2023: tusemoon à vista? Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro – ExpertFX School Nas últimas sessões, analistas gráficos e traders institucionais vêm destacando que o Bitcoin (BTC) está negociando atualmente dentro de uma zona técnica de forte acumulação, descrita visualmente como um “grande oval verde” com múltiplas marcações de pontos de compra institucionais (green dots) — padrão que já foi observado no ciclo de alta anterior, especialmente no verão de 2023, antes do forte movimento de alta que impulsionou o BTC para novas máximas. Esse padrão, popularizado entre analistas técnicos e plataformas de leitura institucional, costuma representar zonas de alta concentração de liquidez e entrada de players de grande porte, muitas vezes antecipando fortes impulsos de valorização (também conhecidos como “tuzemoon”, ou moonshot rallies). Impactos no mercado financeiro A repetição de um padrão gráfico semelhante ao do ciclo de alta de 2023 está despertando forte atenção dos investidores institucionais e do varejo, reacendendo o apetite especulativo e a retomada do fluxo positivo em ETFs de BTC à vista. Além disso, dados on-chain reforçam essa perspectiva: há um aumento na retenção de BTC em carteiras de longo prazo (HODLers), juntamente com a diminuição da oferta líquida em exchanges — sinal clássico de acumulação silenciosa por grandes participantes. Essa convergência técnica pode gerar um novo ciclo de euforia, especialmente se combinada a eventos macroeconômicos favoráveis, como cortes de juros nos EUA, enfraquecimento do dólar ou maior injeção de liquidez nos mercados globais. O que esperar Caso o padrão de 2023 se repita, o Bitcoin poderá romper resistências-chave em US$ 109.000 e buscar novas máximas históricas acima de US$ 110.000 no curto a médio prazo. A entrada contínua de capital institucional, via ETFs e alocações estratégicas, será o motor principal desse novo ciclo. Contudo, vale destacar que o atual ambiente é diferente de 2023 em aspectos importantes: o cenário geopolítico é mais instável (com guerra no Oriente Médio e tensão China-EUA), o dólar segue forte, e o Federal Reserve ainda não sinalizou cortes claros de juros. Isso exige maior cautela. Opinião do analista Igor Pereira O padrão gráfico atual do BTC, com múltiplos sinais de entrada institucional em zonas de liquidez, é tecnicamente semelhante ao observado no pré-rali de 2023. Como analista, reconheço o valor desses padrões como ferramentas de antecipação de movimento — mas reforço que sua validade depende de confirmação de fluxo e contexto macroeconômico. Se observarmos volume crescente, aumento no open interest e quebra de resistências com força, a projeção de uma nova pernada de alta estará tecnicamente justificada. Mas, enquanto isso não ocorrer, estamos em uma zona de expectativa, e não de certeza. Para o trader, o cenário é de posicionamento tático, com foco em zonas de liquidez e proteção contra falsa euforia. Para o investidor, é uma oportunidade de médio prazo para posicionamento gradual, com stops bem definidos.

In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading quietly at 1.3653, up 0.10% on the day. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar posted strong gains of 0.63%, its best daily performance in a month. The US dollar has retreated against the major currencies as risk appetite has risen. The Canadian dollar has taken full advantage and has gained 5% against the greenback since April 1. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Copper for delivery in September fell by more than 1% to a high of $5.0450 per pound or $11,120 per tonne in early trading on the Comex market on Friday as traders take profits after five straight days of gains. Pre-emptive buying in the US ahead of likely tariffs has opened up a massive gap between US and London Metal Exchange prices. Benchmark 3-month copper in London was trading higher at $9,887 per tonne on the LME in morning trading in London on Friday. Reuters reports some Chinese smelters have agreed to process copper from Antofagasta for no charge, but the outcome was better than expected for the smelters, already suffering losses. Shanghai Metals Market reported that the Chilean miner led with an opening bid of –$15 a tonne a record low for term treatment charges and substantially lower than end-2024 rates of $21.25 a tonne. CLICK ON CHART FOR LIVE PRICES The $0 agreement covers half Antofagasta’s 2026 copper concentrate production and presents a win for China’s smelters given spot charges are hovering around the –$43 mark which means smelters would have to pay copper miners for processing their concentrate. SP Angel, a mining and metals financing firm based in London, notes that the Chinese government has worked hard to reduce costs for local businesses, particularly electricity costs which support energy intensive industries like refining and enables Chinese companies to undercut Western counterparts. In a bid to cover short positions on the London Metal Exchange some Chinese smelters are rapidly ramping up exports. At least 30,000 tonnes of copper from smelters including Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group are poised to be delivered to LME warehouses in Asia in the coming weeks, anonymous sources told Bloomberg on Wednesday. Reuters, also quoting unnamed persons with knowledge of the matter, reports nearly 10 Chinese smelters were preparing to deliver 40,000–50,000 tonnes to LME inventories. In a note quoted by Bloomberg, investment bank Goldman Sachs said it expected LME prices to rise to a 2025 peak of roughly $10,050 a tonne in August, as supplies outside the US continue to tighten. “The ex-US copper market has tightened, causing fears of a regional copper shortage despite the global market currently being in surplus,” Goldman said, adding that once the expected 25% import levies are implemented in September, copper prices should retreat to under $10,000 again. Ready to ship inventories on the LME have declined about 80% this year to less than a day of global usage, prompting steep backwardation and a surge in exports by Chinese smelters. The premium for the cash copper contract over the three-month forward dropped this week from $280 on Monday as news of the exports filtered through to the market. Like other markets, the copper price has been on a wild ride in 2025, hitting all-time highs at the end of March only to come dangerously close to crashing through $4.00 barely a fortnight later. Year to date the orange metal remains up more than 20%.

Overview: The US dollar has steadied today after yesterday's shellacking that saw it fall to new multiyear lows against the euro and sterling and 10-year lows against the Swiss franc. The news stream is somewhat more supportive today, with trade deals said to be in the works, in addition to the confirmation/clarification of an agreement with China. The US got an exemption from the OECD's Pillar 2 corporate tax reform, and the onerous "revenge tax" of Section 899 of the budget proposal will be dropped. There is talk that the postponement of the so-called reciprocal tariff may be extended for the current deadline of July 9. While the greenback has steadied it has found little traction and remains largely pinned near yesterday's lows. Equity markets have responded more favorably. Most of the markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced less by the more than 1% gain in Japanese indices. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australia were exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up nearly 1%, and if today's gains are sustained, it would be the first back-to-back advance in three weeks. US index futures are up 0.2%-0.3%. Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer. The two basis point rise in the JGB put the yield at a new high for the week near 1.43%. European yields are mostly less than one basis point higher, but enough to lift the 10-year German Bund yield to a new high for the week (~2.57%). The 10-year Treasury yield is about three basis points higher at 4.27%. It is off nearly 8 bp this week. Gold has broken down to a new low for the week, near $3282. It is also a new low for the month. August WTI continues to chop inside Tuesday’s range (~$64-$67.85). It is inside yesterday's range as well (~$64.65-$66.40). USD: Neither the US-China deal, the other ten trade deals that the Commerce Secretary, nor the likely dropping of the so-called "revenge tax" in the budget, have been sufficient to give the dollar much of a lift. The Dollar Index is pinned near the three-year low set yesterday around 97.00. It has been as high as about 94.40 today, but it is back hovering by its lows in late European morning turnover. There is much attention on today's PCE deflator, but economists have a good handle on it after the CPI and PPI were released earlier this month. The Fed targets the headline PCE deflator, though many journalists insist on calling the core rate the preferred measure, though it is not clear what that means. In any event, the headline and core measures are seen rising by 0.1%, which would lift the year-over-year rates to 2.3% (from 2.1%) and 2.6% (from 2.5%), respectively. More importantly, we suggest, is the slowing of consumption. Note that in yesterday's Q1 GDP update, consumption growth was chopped to 0.5% from 1.2%. In April, monthly personal consumption rose by 0.2% and the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 0.1% gain. It follows an erosion of consumer confidence, rising household debt stress levels, and a slowing in job growth. Adjusted for inflation, through May, real consumption is rising at half of the pace seen in the first five months of 2024. Ahead of the data, the Fed funds futures market is discounting about a 21% chance of a July cut. A week ago, there was around a 16% chance. At the end of May, before Governors Waller and Bowman put July on the table and President Trump's public criticism of Chair Powell and indication he could name a successor six months before the end the Chair's term ends, the market was discounting a 28% chance of a July cut. EURO: Talk of option-related demand may have helped explain euro's surge through $1.17 yesterday. Between yesterday and July 1, the DTCC showed nearly six billion euros in options were expiring. The euro peaked in early European trading near $1.1745. It approached in the NY afternoon but stalled. Today it has mostly traded in around a 20-tick range in either side of $1.17. The upper Bollinger Band is near $1.1710 today. A break of $1.1680 could see short-term momentum traders move to the sidelines, which could send the euro back to the $1.1650 area, where there are 2.1 bln euros expiring Monday. Coming into today, according to Bloomberg prices, the euro has not fallen since last Tuesday June 16, its longest advance in nearly a year. France and Spain reported June CPI ahead of next week's estimate of the aggregate figures. France's harmonized measure CPI rose by 0.4%, twice what was expected but the year-over-year rate rose to 0.8% from 0.6%. Spain's rose by 0.6% and the year-over-year rate rose to 2.2% from 2.4%. The eurozone's June CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% for an unchanged year-over-year rate of 1.9%. CNY: Yesterday saw the dollar fall to a new low for the year (~CNH7.1525) and recover slightly above CNH7.17 in early European turnover. The greenback drifted lower and was fraying the CNH7.16 area in late turnover. It has steadied today and has traded within yesterday's range. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY7.1627 (CNY7.1620 yesterday and CNY7.1695, a week ago). Squeezing HK liquidity through its intervention to defend the peg, the HKMA may have helped reduce some upside pressure on the yuan by discouraging short HKD/long yuan plays. China reported May industrial profits fell 1.1% in in the first five months of this year compared with the Jan-May 2024 period. Separately China confirmed the trade agreement with the US. The lifting of some US sanctions and renewed supply of ethane will take place after the rare earth and magnet shipments begin, according to reports. JPY: With only shallow bounces, the dollar fell from almost JPY146 on Wednesday to JPY143.75 yesterday. The driver was the general weakness of the greenback and the decline in US rates. The greenback settled below the 20-day moving average (~JPY144.55) for the first time in two weeks. It is trading quietly today in the narrowest range of the week (~JPY144.20-JPY144.80). Tokyo price pressures eased slightly more than expected this month. The headline CPI rose 3.1% year-over-year compared with a 3.4% gain in May. The core measure, which excludes fresh food, eased to 3.1% from 3.6%. Excluding fresh food and energy Tokyo's CPI also slipped to 3.1% from 3.3%. This can be expected to be largely duplicated on the national level. The chances of a rate hike at the end of the July central bank meeting remain negligible, according to the swaps market. Some surveys are beginning to detect a push of the anticipated rate hike into 2026. Japan also reported May retail sales. They unexpectedly fell (-0.2%) compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. It followed a 0.7% rise in April. The cumulative rise in retail sales in Q1 was 0.4%. In GDP terms, Japanese consumption has been more stable that government spending and private investment. The Japanese economy contracted by 0.2% at an annualized pace in Q1 and looks to have done only slightly better in Q2. Separately, Japan reported a steady unemployment rate in May (2.5%) but a decline in the job-to-applicant ratio to 1.24 from 1.26. This matches the lowest since early 2022. GBP: Sterling's four-day advance is on the line. It rallied four cents off Monday's low that saw it approach $1.3370 on Monday. It settled above the upper Bollinger Band yesterday (~$1.3725 today). Above the $1.3770 seen yesterday, the $1.3840 could be next. It did not trade below $1.3700 in North America yesterday, where GBP560 mln options expired. It is trading mostly between $1.3720 and $1.3750 so far today. A break of $1.3700could spur some position adjusting that takes sterling to $1.3650 and better support. CAD: The Canadian dollar's 0.7% gain yesterday was the largest this month. The US dollar was turned back from almost CAD1.38 on Monday and slipped below CAD1.3620 yesterday. It is holding above CAD1.3625 today and has been capped near CAD1.3650. Options for $875 mln expire at CAD1.3600 today. This year's low was recorded on June 16 near CAD1.3540. Despite the Canadian dollar's gains, it is a laggard. The only G10 currency to do worse this month is the yen, which has fallen by about 0.2%, while the Loonie has risen by around 0.7%. Year-to-date, it is up 5.4%. It is the least of the G10. The Australian dollar is a close second. It has appreciated almost 5.8%. AUD: The Australian dollar reached a seven-month high yesterday, almost $0.6565. It was the culmination of a four-day rally. It surged 3% from Monday's one-month low (~$0.6375) to the new high yesterday. It frayed its upper Bollinger Band, which is found near $0.6550 today. A break of $0.6540 could see $0.6520. Yesterday's low was near $0.6500. The Aussie's rally does not reflect a change in view on monetary policy. The futures market is the most confident of a cut at the July 8 meeting (~95%). Moreover, the market has been boosting the magnitude of this year's rate cut for the past five sessions. It is now anticipating 81 bp of cuts between now and the end of the year, up from 74 bp a week ago. MXN: The peso took yesterday's anticipated rate cut in stride. As widely expected, Banxico delivered its fourth consecutive 50 bp rate cut. The central bank has not finished the easing cycle but signaled a more moderate pace going forward. And for good reason, it has cut the overnight rate target by 200 bp this year and inflation is north of the 2-4% target range, even if it does not appear to be still accelerating. Yesterday's session low for the dollar was recorded in the European morning near MXN18.85. It reached a low after the rate cut of slightly below MXN18.86. Today, the greenback is in a roughly MXN18.86-MXN18.8950 range. The range may be extended a little to the upside today, but peso buying does not appear exhausted. Disclaimer

The XRP price experienced a significant decline on Thursday following new developments in the ongoing legal dispute between Ripple Labs and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Judge Analisa Torres’ decision to deny the joint motion from Ripple and the SEC for an indicative ruling halted the XRP price recovery as it aimed to breach the nearest resistance level at $2.23. Key Issues Unresolved For Ripple Despite the SEC dropping its appeal, which indicated that the primary legal conflict between the two parties may be reaching a conclusion, Judge Torres’ ruling highlighted that several procedural matters still require resolution, including necessary court approvals. In her judgment, she made it clear that private agreements cannot supersede public court decisions, stating, “The parties do not have the authority to agree not to be bound by a court’s final judgment… They have not come close to doing so here.” In response to the ruling, Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to convey that the situation is now back in Ripple’s hands. The executive pointed out that the court has given them two options: either to dismiss their appeal regarding the historic institutional sales or to continue with the appeal. Regardless of the path chosen, Alderoty emphasized that XRP’s legal status as a non-security remains intact, reassuring stakeholders that it is business as usual. Expert Reactions To Torres’ Decision Legal expert Fred Rispoli also weighed in on the implications of the injunction, stating that it would not impact XRP in secondary markets or affect potential exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings awaiting approval by the SEC. He noted that the injunction is merely a court document and emphasized the low likelihood of Judge Torres calling Ripple and the SEC back into court unless the SEC believes Ripple is violating the terms of the injunction. Rispoli further questioned whether the SEC has the authority to grant Ripple the necessary exemptions to alleviate any restrictions imposed by the injunction, suggesting that such actions fall within the SEC’s executive powers. Ripple has asserted that it has adjusted its operations to align with the court’s findings, particularly regarding its past sales to institutional investors. Alderoty’s use of the term “historic institutional sales” in his recent statement indicates a shift in how both parties might approach future transactions, signaling a potential settlement that would allow XRP sales to institutions in a manner acceptable to the SEC. XRP Price Could Reach $5 Despite this temporary setback, market analysts remain optimistic about XRP’s future. Crypto analyst CryptoBullet recently noted that XRP’s two-week price chart resembles patterns seen in 2017, including a significant accumulation phase and a potential breakout. With this historical context in mind, the expert predicts a final surge in the XRP price, forecasting new all-time high targets between $4.50 and $5.40 for the cryptocurrency. As of press time, the XRP price has retreated to the $2.08 mark, which is a key support level for bulls anticipating further recovery of the token. In the last 24 hours, XRP has dropped 4.4%, and 10% in the last month. According to CoinGecko data, the XRP price remains 38% below its record high of $3.40. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

The possibilities of a Ripple Initial Public Offering (IPO) have become higher as time goes on and the company moves toward a complete resolution of its SEC lawsuit. With expectations of the IPO rising, possible valuations have started to fly around as the company is one of the largest cryptocurrency companies. Most notably, pro-XRP lawyer and community member John Deaton has proposed that the Ripple IPO could lead to the company being valued at over $100 billion. Deaton Puts Ripple At $100 Billion The comment and valuation from lawyer John Deaton come after Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, successfully completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO). So far, the crypto firm has found a lot of success in the market, surging from an initial $5 billion valuation to over $63 billion in valuation post-IPO. Deaton responded to a post on X (formerly Twitter), highlighting this feat, pointing out how Ripple could be even more successful in this regard. He explains that despite Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse saying that the company was in no rush to go public, the IPO should be timed correctly to have the right impact. Pointing to the current market environment, he points out that if Circle can grow to a $63 billion valuation, then it means that Ripple can soar even higher. Given XRP’s standing in the market as the 4th-largest cryptocurrency, ahead of Circle’s USDC, which sits at 7th place, Deaton believes that Ripple’s valuation post-IPO can rise to $100 billion. “If Circle can hit a 62B-75B market cap then Ripple, with nearly 40B XRP, currently valued at $2 (ie $80B), could certainly hit a $100B market cap in this environment,” Deaton wrote. As Bitcoinist reported, Ripple had issued a $700 million tender offer with shares priced at $175. This now puts the equity valuation of the company at $25 billion with 141 million outstanding shares as investors look favorably at the crypto firm. How High Could The XRP Price Go? Market experts have speculated that if the Ripple IPO does go through and the valuation soars, the XRP price will soar in tandem. Crypto investor Dennis Liu shared a video that suggested a successful IPO would be positive for the XRP price. He points out that a symbiotic relationship of the XRP coin related to the Ripple stock would be the dream of investors. Other market experts have debated that the XRP price would go double-digits to rise above $10 if this happens. In some cases, the XRP price has been pegged as high as $100 if Ripple does complete its IPO and begins trading as a publicly listed company.

A fund based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced a significant investment of $100 million in the Trump-backed decentralized finance (DeFi) platform World Liberty Financial, and its native token WLFI. The investment was confirmed in a joint statement by Aqua 1 and World Liberty Financial, highlighting the collaboration as a step towards developing a blockchain financial ecosystem and integrating stablecoins. World Liberty Financial Partners With Aqua 1 Zak Folkman, co-founder of World Liberty Financial, expressed enthusiasm about the partnership, stating, “We’re excited to work hand-in-hand with the team at Aqua 1.” This investment positions Aqua 1 among the largest stakeholders in the Trump family’s cryptocurrency project. It is further strengthened by the backing of crypto billionaire Justin Sun, who is the top investor in the company with a substantial $75 million stake. This marks the second investment from a UAE-based firm in World Liberty Financial within a short span; earlier this year, Abu Dhabi’s MGX used World Liberty Financial’s USD1 stablecoin to facilitate a $2 billion investment in Binance. David Lee, a founding partner at Aqua 1, stated that Aqua 1 and the decentralized platform will collaborate to “identify and nurture promising blockchain projects.” World Liberty Financial also plans to support the Aqua Fund, an investment vehicle focused on enhancing the digital economy in the Middle East. In addition, Aqua 1 will aid World Liberty Financial in expanding its reach into South America, Europe, Asia, and emerging markets. Both companies are also set to develop “BlockRock,” a platform aimed at tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs) to bridge traditional investments like real estate with the Web3 ecosystem. New App Launch Planned In tandem with these initiatives, World Liberty Financial is preparing to release an audit report of its stablecoin, USD1, within days. Folkman, speaking at the Permissionless conference in Brooklyn, New York, also mentioned that the platform’s WLFI token may soon become tradable. Launched two months prior to the US presidential election, WLFI has already generated substantial revenue for Trump’s family business through the sale of governance tokens. These tokens grant holders the ability to vote on project changes and influence its strategic direction. While WLFI is currently not tradable, Folkman hinted at forthcoming updates that users should watch for in the coming weeks. He also revealed that the company’s stablecoin has received its first attestation report, which will be available on the company’s website. To further facilitate user engagement, Folkman announced the upcoming launch of a new app designed to simplify cryptocurrency use for everyday investors. As of press time, the official TRUMP memecoin trades at $8.96, recording a major 30% drop in the monthly time frame. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered from its recent drop below the $100,000 level and is attempting to turn the crucial $108,000 resistance into support for the fourth time. As we approach the second half of 2025, a market watcher has shared his forecast for BTC. Bitcoin Sees Transitional Period On Thursday, analyst Rekt Capital shared a roadmap for BTC for the rest of the year. He noted that this cycle has been “truly a cycle of re-accumulation ranges,” explaining that these have formed throughout the cycle since the end of 2022 and evolved since the Bitcoin Halving last year. In the pre-having period, BTC registered brief price deviations with downside wicks below the re-accumulation range lows in the weekly chart. Meanwhile, the post-halving period has seen Bitcoin deviations occur with multi-week clusters of full-bodied candles below the range lows. For instance, after its first price discovery uptrend, which lasted around seven weeks, BTC moved within its re-accumulation range for about ten weeks. Then, it transitioned into the first Price Discovery Correction, recording a nine-week downside deviation below the range lows before breaking out and rallying past the range highs toward a new ATH last month. Its past performances suggested that BTC was ready to enter its second Price Discovery Uptrend. But as Rekt Capital detailed, a transitional period has occurred for the first time, with price consolidating around the re-accumulation range high area. According to the analyst, this is “perhaps the first time that we’re seeing a deviation occur below the range high,” making this area a crucial level to transition into a new uptrend. We never really had to pull back substantially, maybe, until that final corrective period, which would last multiple months, but each re-accumulation range would see quite a bit of upside, and that upside would be very quick and no real post-breakout retesting, no real pausing. What we’re seeing here is something very, very different. Weekly Close Key For BTC’s Future Based on its new transition period, the key level for Bitcoin to reclaim in the weekly timeframe is the $104,400 support, which it held for nearly seven weeks before the recent pullbacks. This level was lost after BTC closed last week below it and “should not become a resistance level.” To the analyst, it’s key that this week’s close solidifies the price recovery as it would position the cryptocurrency for a retest and confirmation of $104,400 as support and continue the build the base around this area to transition into the next multi-week Price Discovery Uptrend. Rekt Capital added that the timeline for BTC’s next uptrend will depend on the length of the new transitional period. However, he believes that it will take “a bit longer” to break out. Additionally, he suggested that what comes after the upcoming uptrend will also depend on how long it takes, as it could lead to an extended cycle or a prolongation of this phase, which could push the cycle peak into deeper stages of 2025. Nonetheless, the analyst affirmed that it’s crucial that the next corrective period, which could see Bitcoin drop between 25% to 33%, is short to potentially enjoy a third Price Discovery Uptrend before the bear market. As of this writing, BTC is trading at $107,555, a 3.2% increase in the weekly timeframe.

US equity markets roared back to life on Thursday, 26 June, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 leading the charge, climbing 0.9% to notch another fresh all-time intraday and closing high. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to close at 6,140—just shy of its all-time intraday high of 6,147 set in February. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed with a 1.7% surge. Despite ongoing concerns around slowing US economic growth and the approaching 9 July expiration of the White House’s 90-day pause on global reciprocal tariffs (excluding China), investor sentiment remained firmly risk-on. Markets appear to be positioning for potential additional liquidity from a more dovish Federal Reserve as early as Q3. close Fig 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 27 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 27 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) Price actions of the USD/JPY have failed to trade higher above its 20-day moving average, and it is now shaping an impending weekly bearish “Dark Cloud Cover” candlestick pattern that suggests a potential bearish breakdown from its “Ascending Wedge” range support that has been in place since the 22 April 2025 low. In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bearish momentum conditions as it remains below a parallel descending resistance. Watch the 145.20 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 143.90 (“Ascending Wedge” range support) exposes the next intermediate supports at 143.00 and 142.40 (see Fig 2). On the other hand, a clearance above 145.20 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 146.25 and 147.15. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bank of America: Investidores estrangeiros detêm participação recorde de US$ 19 trilhões no mercado dos EUA Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro – ExpertFX School Desde 1991, investidores estrangeiros adquiriram coletivamente mais de US$ 128 trilhões em ativos financeiros dos Estados Unidos, segundo análise do Bank of America com base em dados oficiais da Reserva Federal (Fed). Apenas nos últimos 15 anos, as compras líquidas de ações, títulos públicos e privados, instrumentos de crédito, fundos do mercado monetário e outros ativos dobraram, refletindo um ciclo persistente de confiança internacional na economia americana. Atualmente, estrangeiros detêm aproximadamente 18% de todo o mercado acionário dos EUA, o equivalente a cerca de US$ 19 trilhões, configurando um patamar recorde de participação externa no capital financeiro norte-americano. Impactos no mercado financeiro Esse nível inédito de exposição internacional representa um divisor de águas para a estrutura do mercado financeiro dos EUA. A dominância estrangeira nos ativos americanos, especialmente em ações e títulos, reforça o status dos EUA como porto seguro global, mas também revela a crescente interdependência entre o capital internacional e a estabilidade de Wall Street. Do ponto de vista da liquidez, a entrada massiva de capital estrangeiro proporciona sustentação aos valuations, reduz custos de financiamento e amplia o apetite por risco em setores estratégicos da economia norte-americana. Em momentos de expansão global, isso tende a beneficiar o S&P 500 e o Nasdaq, fortalecendo o dólar como divisa de reserva. No entanto, o cenário também traz vulnerabilidades sistêmicas: em um ambiente de aumento de taxas nos EUA, desaceleração global ou tensões geopolíticas (como guerra comercial, conflitos militares ou desacordo cambial), esses mesmos fluxos podem se reverter de forma abrupta, gerando riscos de liquidez e instabilidade em múltiplos mercados – de ações a Treasuries. O que esperar Com os atuais níveis de dívida pública dos EUA superando US$ 34 trilhões e uma crescente fragilidade fiscal em Washington, a continuidade do apetite externo dependerá de uma confiança contínua no sistema institucional e na política monetária americana. Alterações na trajetória dos juros pelo Fed, ou decisões disruptivas do governo Trump em sua nova gestão, podem afetar diretamente esse fluxo internacional. No médio prazo, analistas esperam uma rotação gradual de ativos, com investidores estrangeiros migrando parcialmente para ouro, ativos asiáticos, criptomoedas e commodities, como forma de diversificação e proteção contra riscos fiscais e cambiais dos EUA. Opinião do analista Igor Pereira A concentração de capital estrangeiro em ativos americanos é ao mesmo tempo um reflexo do domínio global dos EUA e um alerta para riscos de reversão abrupta de fluxo, especialmente em contextos de tensões geopolíticas ou instabilidade interna. O fato de investidores internacionais controlarem quase um quinto do mercado acionário americano não é apenas simbólico — é estrutural. Como analista, vejo esse dado como um sinal de maturidade e risco: maturidade, pois os EUA continuam sendo o principal destino do capital global; risco, porque qualquer abalo na confiança pode gerar movimentos de correção agressivos em Wall Street, pressionando também moedas emergentes, como o real, e ativos sensíveis ao risco, como o ouro (XAU/USD). Para o trader institucional, esse é um momento de atenção redobrada: monitorar os fluxos internacionais se tornou tão essencial quanto acompanhar os dados macroeconômicos locais.

Butão acumula reservas em Bitcoin equivalentes a quase 40% do PIB nacional Por Igor Pereira, Analista de Mercado Financeiro - ExpertFX School Desde 2020, o Reino do Butão vem se destacando no cenário global ao implementar uma estratégia inovadora de mineração e acúmulo de Bitcoin (BTC) em suas reservas nacionais. Atualmente, estima-se que o país detenha cerca de US$ 1,3 bilhão em BTC, valor que corresponde a quase 40% do PIB do país, tornando-o o terceiro maior detentor de Bitcoin entre governos nacionais. Impactos no mercado financeiro Essa decisão do Butão representa um marco significativo para o mercado de criptomoedas, sobretudo pela participação direta de uma autoridade governamental na posse de um ativo digital de alta volatilidade e potencial disruptivo. A alocação expressiva em Bitcoin por parte de um governo soberano sinaliza maturidade crescente do ativo como reserva de valor alternativa, capaz de oferecer proteção contra pressões inflacionárias e instabilidades cambiais. Para o mercado financeiro global, essa iniciativa pode desencadear um movimento de maior aceitação institucional das criptomoedas, especialmente em países emergentes que buscam diversificação de reservas e maior autonomia monetária. A exposição governamental ao BTC tende a reduzir a percepção de risco e pode contribuir para a estabilização do preço da criptomoeda no médio prazo. No entanto, é importante considerar os riscos associados à concentração de ativos digitais em governos de pequeno porte, cuja liquidez pode impactar volatilidade caso ocorram vendas expressivas. Além disso, o ambiente regulatório e geopolítico pode influenciar decisivamente o comportamento desses ativos. O que esperar No horizonte dos próximos meses, espera-se que outras nações observem atentamente os resultados da estratégia do Butão e avaliem a possibilidade de incorporar ativos digitais em suas reservas soberanas, especialmente diante do contexto global de inflação elevada e incertezas econômicas. Para traders e investidores, a crescente institucionalização do Bitcoin pode significar um mercado mais sólido, com fluxos de capital mais estáveis, mas ainda sujeito a riscos típicos do ativo, como volatilidade e influências externas. Opinião do analista Igor Pereira A adoção do Bitcoin pelo Butão é um movimento estratégico que sinaliza a transição das criptomoedas de um ativo especulativo para uma ferramenta legítima de política econômica. Esse caso reforça a importância de se analisar o mercado cripto sob uma perspectiva macroeconômica e institucional, além dos tradicionais fatores técnicos. Vejo essa iniciativa como um indicativo claro de que o futuro das reservas soberanas pode ser híbrido, combinando moedas fiduciárias com ativos digitais para melhor proteção contra choques globais. No entanto, é fundamental que os investidores estejam atentos aos riscos de concentração e volatilidade, adotando uma gestão de risco robusta para navegar nesse novo cenário.

Data shows the Bitcoin Open Interest on the cryptocurrency exchange Binance has recently shot up. What could this mean for the asset’s price? Bitcoin Binance Open Interest Has Seen A Sharp Increase As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Open Interest on Binance has spiked. The “Open Interest” refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of BTC positions that are currently open on a given derivatives platform. When the value of the metric goes up, it means the investors are opening up fresh positions on the market. As the total amount of leverage present in the sector rises when new positions appear, this kind of trend can lead to the asset’s price becoming more volatile. On the other hand, the indicator observing a decline suggests the holders are either closing up positions of their own volition or getting liquidated by their platform. Since leverage goes down with such a trend, the cryptocurrency can become more stable following it. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 24-hour percentage change of the Bitcoin Open Interest for the Binance exchange over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the 24-hour change in the Binance Bitcoin Open Interest recently shot up to a notably positive value, implying the number of positions on the platform saw a significant jump. At the peak of this spike, the indicator hit a value of more than 6%. From the chart, it’s visible that there have been a couple of other occasions that the metric has breached this mark during the past month. Interestingly, each of these spikes coincided with points that preceded a period of consolidation/decline for Bitcoin. As the quant notes, This recurring pattern suggests that large inflows into leveraged positions often precede periods where short-term gains are realized, leading to potential price pullbacks or sideways movement as market participants de-risk. The analyst has also shared another chart, this one tracking the 7-day change in the Realized Cap of the short-term holders and long-term holders. The “Realized Cap” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the capital that the holders have invested into Bitcoin. Below is a chart that shows the change in this metric for two investor cohorts, short-term holders (holding time of 155 days or lesser) and long-term holders (holding time greater than 155 days). As is apparent from the graph, the 7-day change in the Realized Cap has recently been positive for long-term holders, which suggests capital has been maturing from the short-term holders into this cohort. That said, earlier in the month, the indicator hit a peak of $57 billion, but today it has come down to just $3.5 billion. So, while capital is still aging into long-term holders, it’s now happening at a much slower rate. BTC Price Bitcoin has been attempting to break past the $108,000 mark, but so far, it hasn’t found success as its price is still trading around $107,200.

Cardano price started a fresh decline below the $0.5750 zone. ADA is now consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $0.550 support. ADA price started a fresh decline below $0.580 and $0.5750. The price is trading below $0.570 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.570 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh decline if it dips below the $0.550 support zone. Cardano Price Dips Again In the past few sessions, Cardano saw a fresh decline below the $0.580, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum. ADA even declined below the $0.5750 level to enter a bearish zone. The bears even pushed the price below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.5102 swing low to the $0.5938 high. The price even spiked below the $0.5520 support. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.570 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair. Cardano price is now trading below $0.570 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $0.570 zone. The first resistance is near $0.5850. The next key resistance might be $0.5920. If there is a close above the $0.5920 resistance, the price could start a strong rally. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $0.620 region. Any more gains might call for a move toward $0.6350 in the near term. Another Drop In ADA? If Cardano’s price fails to climb above the $0.5850 resistance level, it could start another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $0.5520 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.5102 swing low to the $0.5938 high. The next major support is near the $0.530 level. A downside break below the $0.530 level could open the doors for a test of $0.5120. The next major support is near the $0.50 level where the bulls might emerge. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ADA/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for ADA/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.5520 and $0.5300. Major Resistance Levels – $0.5850 and $0.6000.

Bitcoin has regained some upward momentum, with its market price currently hovering around $107,155 at the time of writing. This marks a 0.4% decrease in the past 24 hours, and a 4.3% drop below its all-time high of $111,000, set in May. Despite the rebound, analysts are closely watching for potential shifts in momentum as a number of market indicators and macroeconomic signals suggest a more cautious short-term outlook. Among the recent developments drawing attention is a sharp rise in Net Taker Volume on Binance, along with significant stablecoin outflows from derivative platforms. CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha noted in a recent market commentary that these changes could indicate increased speculative activity. While some traders interpret such surges as bullish signals, they often occur due to short liquidations or sudden retail buying rather than consistent organic demand. Derivatives Activity and Fed Commentary Fuel Market Caution On June 24, Binance’s Net Taker Volume crossed $100 million for the first time since early June. This level of activity, according to Taha, can sometimes signal buying momentum but may also point to forced closures of short positions, especially in high-leverage environments. Taha emphasized that without strong capital inflows to back the movement, these bursts tend to be short-lived. Simultaneously, more than $1.25 billion in stablecoin liquidity has exited derivative exchanges, marking the largest capital outflow from these platforms since May. These outflows reduce the base for opening new leveraged positions, potentially dampening future market momentum. Taha also pointed to external economic cues, particularly a recent statement by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During his testimony before Congress, Powell signaled that rate cuts may be on the table depending on upcoming economic conditions. While looser monetary policy is often viewed as favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin, the shift also reflects underlying uncertainty. The analyst also mentioned that the Swiss Franc, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, has also surged against the US dollar, suggesting that some investors are leaning risk-off amid broader macroeconomic developments. Market Structure Remains Firm, But Momentum Is Slowing Separately, another CryptoQuant analyst known as Crypto Dan offered a different perspective using a bubble chart model that visualizes trading volume trends across exchanges. According to Dan, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a “cooling” phase. This implies reduced trading activity without dramatic spikes in volume, often seen as a sign that the market is consolidating rather than overheating. He noted that while BTC remains close to its all-time high, the path forward may depend on macroeconomic catalysts such as confirmed interest rate cuts or regulatory clarity. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

The Trump administration is opening the door for cryptocurrency to play a role in the mortgage market. On June 25, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to begin developing systems that allow borrowers to count crypto holdings when applying for a mortgage. If regulated U.S. platforms hold the assets, lenders could factor them into the underwriting process, potentially helping more Americans qualify for home loans. It is a shift that blends digital assets with traditional finance in a way that would have seemed unlikely just a few years ago. Although the new policy is still in the early stages, it sends a clear message: regulators are taking crypto seriously as part of personal finance. Crypto’s Role in Underwriting Is Changing In most cases today, lenders ask borrowers who own crypto to sell it and convert it to cash before using it to show financial strength. The logic is that crypto is too volatile, and lenders prefer assets that are more predictable in value. That may still be true, but the FHFA says it is time to reconsider how digital assets fit into mortgage eligibility. Director William Pulte said the move reflects the administration’s larger strategy to bring crypto into the financial mainstream. The idea is not to ignore the risks but to find a way to factor in crypto holdings while still maintaining responsible lending standards. Under this approach, lenders would apply extra scrutiny to account for price swings and cybersecurity concerns. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 What Fannie and Freddie Are Being Asked to Do Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac do not issue loans directly, but they back a large portion of the U.S. mortgage market. Their role in this plan is to create a new framework that allows lenders to consider crypto as part of a borrower’s financial profile. Lenders must ensure that the assets are held with regulated U.S. exchanges and properly account for how quickly crypto values can change. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.13T24h7d30d1yAll time At this point, there is no final timeline for when the rules will be in place. The agencies are being asked to develop the details and submit them for review. Any full rollout would require more steps and formal approval. Reactions Are Mixed Some in the mortgage industry are calling it a necessary update. The Mortgage Bankers Association has said it welcomes efforts to modernize asset verification, especially as more people hold wealth in nontraditional formats. But others are raising questions. Amanda Fischer of Better Markets pointed out that crypto can swing wildly in value, making it risky to include in lending decisions. She also raised concerns about what happens if assets disappear due to fraud or exchange failure. That tension between innovation and caution is likely to define how this process unfolds. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 What This Means for Borrowers If the plan moves forward, it could make it easier for crypto holders to access mortgage credit without having to liquidate their assets. That may appeal to borrowers who are reluctant to sell during market dips or who want to keep long-term positions intact. The next few months will be important as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac work through the operational side. Lenders will also need to update their systems, and regulators will watch closely to see how this plays out in practice. If it works, it could prompt one of the most conservative corners of the financial system to change how it views crypto. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways The Trump administration has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to explore counting crypto holdings toward mortgage eligibility. Crypto assets will only qualify if held on regulated U.S. exchanges, with extra rules to address volatility and cybersecurity risks. The new policy aims to integrate crypto into traditional finance without undermining responsible lending standards. Fannie and Freddie must develop the framework, but they have not set a final timeline or rollout date yet. This move may help crypto holders qualify for loans without liquidating assets. It could lead lenders to change how they treat digital wealth. The post Trump Administration Moves to Let Crypto Count Toward Mortgages appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Crypto exchange Kraken has officially received its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) licence from the Central Bank of Ireland, making it one of the first major platforms to gain full approval under the European Union’s new digital asset framework. This licence allows Kraken to offer its services across all 30 countries in the European Economic Area from a single regulatory base. Source: Shutterstock The approval represents a turning point not just for Kraken but for how crypto companies will operate across Europe going forward. Instead of dealing with a patchwork of national rules, the exchange now gets a single, unified path forward. What This Means for Kraken’s Business in Europe With the licence in hand, Kraken can now offer a wide range of services to both individual and institutional clients across the region. That includes crypto trading, custody, payment services, portfolio management, and derivatives. The licence also allows the firm to issue stablecoins, provided they meet MiCA requirements. Until now, Kraken had been operating under several local registrations in countries like France, Italy, and Spain. Those arrangements worked but came with limitations. MiCA was designed to solve that, and Kraken’s Irish licence is the first real test of how well that system works in practice. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in June2025 Ireland’s Role as a Crypto Gateway Ireland was not chosen at random. Kraken already operates an electronic money business there, which gives it the ability to offer euro payment services and fiat on-ramps. The country has a strong fintech presence and a reputation for consistent, transparent regulation. That combination made it a natural home base for Kraken’s broader European operations. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.13T24h7d30d1yAll time The Central Bank of Ireland has been careful about who it approves, and this licence came only after what Kraken described as an in-depth review. With this milestone, Ireland joins the shortlist of countries positioning themselves as key crypto hubs under MiCA, alongside places like Luxembourg, France, and Malta. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 MiCA Is Reshaping the Crypto Map The MiCA framework went fully live in December 2024 and aims to provide Europe with a single rulebook for digital asset companies. Before that, crypto businesses had to navigate a mix of national laws that often overlapped or conflicted. Now, once a company gains approval in one country, it can operate throughout the EU without repeating the same process again and again. That is a big step forward for companies like Kraken, which are trying to scale their services across borders. MiCA also sets out rules for consumer protection, reserve requirements for stablecoins, and transparency for asset custody. The goal is to bring crypto closer to the standards seen in traditional finance, while still leaving space for innovation. What Comes Next Kraken’s MiCA licence opens the door to bigger moves in Europe. The company expects to expand its product lineup, roll out new services in more countries. It may also bring more institutions onto its platform. It is also setting a precedent. With several other exchanges applying for licences under the same framework, Kraken’s approval could help define how future applications are handled. For now, the message is clear: MiCA is no longer just policy on paper; it is the rulebook the industry is starting to follow. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Kraken received a MiCA licence from Ireland, giving it legal approval to operate across all 30 EEA countries under one regulatory framework. This marks a shift away from fragmented national crypto laws in Europe, allowing Kraken to scale services like trading, custody, and payments more efficiently. Ireland’s fintech infrastructure and Kraken’s existing presence there made it a strategic choice for the exchange’s EU headquarters. The MiCA framework introduces EU-wide standards for consumer protection, stablecoins, and transparency in digital asset custody. Kraken’s licence sets a precedent for other crypto firms applying under MiCA, potentially shaping how EU crypto regulation is enforced going forward. The post Kraken Wins First EU-Wide Licence Under MiCA via Irish Central Bank appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

US President Donald Trump’s namesake meme token has tumbled hard, slumping nearly 90% from its all-time high set six months ago. Today, TRUMP is trading at $8.80, down 6% in the last seven days. Traders are on edge after the project’s team yanked $4.4 million in USDC from liquidity pools and a single whale lined up a $2.5 million sell order. Team Pulls Millions From Liquidity According to a recent post on X by Lookonchain, the Trump Coin team withdrew $4.4 million worth of USDC and moved 347,438 TRUMP tokens—valued at $3.12 million—from the main liquidity pool into a fresh wallet. That move came without any heads-up or clear reason. Now, many investors worry that the team might be preparing to dump coins, which would add selling pressure to a coin already struggling with low demand. Whale Places Huge Sell Order Based on reports, a major wallet known as Kewh32 has put 275,672 TRUMP tokens on the market, roughly $2.5 million at current prices. This whale also sold 100,000 tokens earlier in June and still holds 369,400 coins. If those tokens ever hit exchanges, the added supply could push the price even lower. Price Pattern Offers Mixed Signal On the daily chart, TRUMP has traced out a falling wedge pattern. That setup often leads to a breakout, but only when buyers step in with strength. Here, trading volumes remain weak. The relative strength index (RSI) has sat below 50 for over a month, signaling that sellers are still in control. At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator just flipped green—albeit still below zero—which hints that bearish momentum may be fading. Investor Confidence Falters Many traders are watching the $8 to $9 range closely. A failure to hold above $8 could spell more losses and test deeper support. Right now, there’s no sign of a strong rally. Without fresh buying interest or positive news, the downtrend inside the wedge looks set to continue. It won’t take much to spark a short squeeze—maybe a burst of social media hype or a big buy from another whale. But trust in the token’s team is shaky after the recent liquidity pull. Until on-chain activity shows real demand, most market players expect more choppy trading and lower prices. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

XRP price started a downside correction from the $2.220 zone. The price is consolidating and might decline further toward the $2.020 support. XRP price started a downside correction below the $2.20 zone. The price is now trading below $2.150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $2.150 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could find bids near the $2.020 zone and start a fresh increase. XRP Price Dips Below Support XRP price attempted more gains above the $2.150 zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price spiked above the $2.20 and $2.220 levels, but the bulls failed to extend gains. A high was formed at $2.2294 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the $2.20 and $2.15 levels. The price dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.910 swing low to the $2.2294 high. Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $2.150 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading below $2.180 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.150 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.20 level. The next resistance is $2.220. A clear move above the $2.220 resistance might send the price toward the $2.320 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.40 resistance or even $2.450 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be $2.50. More Losses? If XRP fails to clear the $2.20 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.070 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.910 swing low to the $2.2294 high. The next major support is near the $2.020 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.020 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $2.00 support. The next major support sits near the $1.920 zone. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.070 and $2.020. Major Resistance Levels – $2.20 and $2.220.

Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,450 zone. ETH is now correcting gains from $2,520 and might slip to test the $2,320 zone. Ethereum started a fresh upward move above the $2,350 level. The price is trading above $2,400 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $2,450 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it remains stable above the $2,320 zone in the near term. Ethereum Price Dips Below Support Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,320 support level, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to clear the $2,350 and $2,450 resistance levels to move into a positive zone. The bulls even pushed the price above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,569 swing high to the $2,115 low. However, the bulls were active above the $2,500 level. A high was formed at $2,520 and the price is now correcting some gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,114 swing low to the $2,520 high. Besides, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $2,450 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $2,400 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $2,500 level. The next key resistance is near the $2,520 level. The first major resistance is near the $2,550 level. A clear move above the $2,550 resistance might send the price toward the $2,600 resistance. An upside break above the $2,600 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,720 resistance zone or even $2,800 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,520 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,400 level. The first major support sits near the $2,320 zone. A clear move below the $2,320 support might push the price toward the $2,250 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,200 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $2,150. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $2,320 Major Resistance Level – $2,520

As Bitcoin pushes back toward the $108,000 level, on-chain data reveals the investor cohorts are still divided in their accumulation behavior. Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Shows Mixed Behavior From Holders In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how the BTC investor cohorts aren’t showing a unified behavior on the Accumulation Trend Score. The Accumulation Trend Score refers to an indicator that basically tells us whether Bitcoin holders are accumulating or not. The metric bases its value on two factors: the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors and the size of those wallets. When the value of the indicator is greater than 0.5, it means the large holders (or a large number of small hands) are leaning toward net accumulation. The closer the score is to 1.0, the stronger the buying. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold suggests the investors are in a phase of distribution (or simply, that they aren’t accumulating). This behavior is the strongest at the zero mark. Now, here is the chart for the Accumulation Trend Score shared by Glassnode, showing the trend in the metric separately for the various holder groups: As displayed in the above graph, the Accumulation Trend Score has recently varied in value across these cohorts. Investors who hold between 1 to 10 BTC appear to be distributing, while those with 10 to 100 BTC are accumulating. Among the large holders, the trend leans more neutral, but the indicator still doesn’t show any clear uniformity. Members of the 1,000 to 10,000 coins group, popularly referred to as the whales, are currently tending toward accumulation, but those part of the 10,000+ cohort, the ‘mega whales,’ are showing slight distribution. According to the analytics firm, the Accumulation Trend Score of the network as a whole stands at 0.57. As such, it seems there is no majority behavior being followed by the traders at the moment. That said, while a unifying buying push hasn’t appeared alongside the latest price rally toward $108,000, there has still been an improvement that has occurred in the score. According to the analytics firm, the indicator dropped to a low of 0.25 earlier. It only remains to be seen, however, whether the Bitcoin investors would continue to move in this direction, or if indecision is here to stay for a while. BTC Price Bitcoin attempted to find a break above the $108,000 level earlier, but the asset has so far not been able to maintain a sustainable move, and its price has even seen rejection toward $107,100.

🇺🇸 Trump pode aplicar novas tarifas se acordos comerciais não forem fechados até 9 de julho 📅 Washington, 26 de junho de 2025 — A Casa Branca declarou nesta quinta-feira que o prazo de 9 de julho para a conclusão de acordos comerciais com parceiros estratégicos "não é considerado crítico", mas alertou que o presidente Donald Trump poderá adotar tarifas retaliatórias caso os entendimentos não avancem até essa data. Segundo fontes oficiais, Trump está avaliando uma nova rodada de tarifas direcionadas a países que não atenderem às demandas comerciais dos Estados Unidos. A medida incluiria ajustes estratégicos nas tarifas de importação sobre bens industriais, semicondutores, veículos e produtos agrícolas, com foco especialmente na União Europeia e Japão — parceiros comerciais atualmente em negociação com Washington. Essa postura reforça o atual ambiente de insegurança no comércio internacional, à medida que a administração Trump segue uma política econômica mais nacionalista, alinhada ao seu plano de "reindustrialização americana" e contenção de déficits comerciais bilaterais. 📈Impactos não relacionados ao mercado O retorno de uma agenda tarifária mais agressiva por parte dos EUA pode gerar impactos diretos nos seguintes setores: Dólar (USD): Tendência de fortalecimento pontual com fuga para ativos seguros, mas pressão negativa no médio prazo caso as tensões comerciais comprometam o crescimento global; Ouro (XAU/USD): Deve seguir sendo o principal beneficiado em momentos de escalada nas incertezas geopolíticas, especialmente em caso de retaliação por parte da China ou da Europa; Mercado de Ações: Setores industriais e empresas com forte exposição às exportações podem sofrer, especialmente no S&P 500; Criptomoedas: Ativos como o Bitcoin podem atrair fluxo especulativo em momentos de aversão ao risco. 📌 O que esperar? 🔹 Caso as negociações não avancem até o dia 9 de julho, espera-se volatilidade significativa nos mercados globais, principalmente em commodities, moedas emergentes e nos ativos considerados "porto seguro", como ouro e franco suíço. 🔹 O setor logístico, automotivo e de tecnologia nos EUA pode ser impactado diretamente com tarifas aplicadas a peças e componentes importados da Ásia e Europa. 🔹A política de Trump reforça o risco de "reglobalização seletiva" , com rearranjos comerciais e reprecificação de ativos atrelados à cadeia de suprimentos global. 📣 Para acompanhar essas atualizações em tempo real e entender os impactos macroeconômicos no dólar, no ouro e nos mercados financeiros, acesse diariamente o site: 🔗 www.expertfxschool.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $106,500 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for a move above the $108,000 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $106,500 zone. The price is trading above $106,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $107,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $105,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $104,200 zone. BTC gained pace and was able to climb above the $105,000 and $105,500 levels to enter a positive zone. The bulls pushed the price above the $106,500 resistance and the price tested the $108,150 zone. A high was formed at $108,165 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $107,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. However, the price stayed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $98,272 swing low to the $108,165 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $106,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $107,800 level. The first key resistance is near the $108,150 level or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downward move from the $106,470 swing high to the $98,276 low. A close above the $108,150 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $110,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $112,000 level. Bearish Reaction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $108,150 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $105,800 level. The first major support is near the $105,000 level. The next support is now near the $103,200 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $98,272 swing low to the $108,165 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $102,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $101,200, below which BTC might gain bearish momentum. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $105,800, followed by $105,500. Major Resistance Levels – $107,800 and $108,150.

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its steady climb toward its all-time high (ATH) of $111,814 recorded in May 2025, the cryptocurrency is witnessing a notable shift in its holder composition. New on-chain data suggests that BTC “weak hands” are selling their holdings to larger investors. Bitcoin Moving Upstream From Weak Hands To Big Money According to a recent Cryptoquant Quicktake post by contributor IT Tech, Bitcoin’s supply is moving upstream from retail investors to larger holders. This movement denotes a fundamental shift in the investor sentiment toward the largest digital asset. Retail investors – those holding less than one BTC – have seen a significant reduction in their holdings, with total balances dropping by 54,500 BTC year-over-year (YoY), to 1.69 million BTC. On average, this cohort has experienced outflows of approximately 220 BTC per day. In contrast, large holders – wallets with 1,000 BTC or more – have expanded their total BTC exposure by 507,700 BTC over the same period, bringing their combined holdings to 16.57 million BTC. This group is now seeing average inflows of around 1,460 BTC per day. Institutional interest in Bitcoin also continues to rise at a historic pace. Notably, institutions are currently absorbing about seven times more BTC than retail investors are selling. At the same time, the post-halving issuance of BTC is currently hovering around 450 BTC a day, raising the possibility of a true “supply squeeze” amid strong buying pressure. To recall, BTC underwent its latest halving in April 2024, when the mining reward for each block on the chain was slashed from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. In their commentary, IT Tech noted that meaningful retail interest has yet to kick in during this cycle. Unlike previous market tops – where retail investors aggressively accumulated BTC – current data shows them exiting the market, suggesting that the bull run may still have more room to grow. Another metric that points toward the market top being far from the current price level is the Bitcoin 30-day MA Binary CDD. In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Avocado_onchain noted that the BTC market is “far from overheating.” BTC Short-Term Holder Floor Approaching $100,000 As BTC remains range-bound between $100,000 and $110,000, the short-term holder (STH) realized price – a key psychological support level – is steadily climbing. It currently sits near $98,000, reflecting rising investor conviction. Further on-chain data also shows that both retail and institutional holders are reducing exchange deposits, signalling reluctance to sell at current levels. This behavior supports the idea that many are positioning for further upside. At press time, BTC trades at $107,012, down 0.5% in the past 24 hours.

Dogecoin showed a sudden rebound this week, sparking fresh talk of a major rally in the weeks ahead. After dipping to $0.142 on Sunday, the meme coin has climbed back above $0.16. According to market watchers, this bounce off long-term support could set the stage for a much bigger move, possibly as soon as July. Chart Pattern Points To Support Analysts have noted that Dogecoin’s slide to $0.142 fits neatly into a rising pattern of higher lows. Based on analysis, the dip hit a multi-year trendline that first showed up in October 2023. At that time, prices fell to a similar zone before reversing. Once Dogecoin found footing, it moved into an ascending channel, forming a steady string of higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. July Could Be The Launchpad Meanwhile, crypto analyst WIZZ have predicted that Dogecoin’s next leg up could begin in July. If the current support holds, they argue, DOGE may pick up speed and push toward the wedge’s tip and hit $1. The analyst’s chart shows a potential rally to $1.40, which would mark a 740% jump from today’s levels and blow past the $1 mark that many have eyed for years. Multiple Forecasts Add Fuel To The Debate This isn’t the first time experts have set sights on $1 for Dogecoin. Galaxy Research put the $1 target on its radar before the end of 2025. Javon Marks, in his own analysis, sees DOGE breaching $1.25 by riding a bullish continuation pattern. Other analysts have called for a 500% surge after a falling-wedge breakout in March. Short-Term Gains Vs. Long-Term Risks Dogecoin’s recent turn higher adds about 10% to its weekly lows, and it’s up roughly 5% over the last weekly session, trading near $0.166. But critics point out that DOGE lacks the fundamental backing of tokens that power major networks. Its price moves largely on community enthusiasm and hype. If Bitcoin or the broader crypto market cools off, Dogecoin could see sharper drops than more established assets. What Traders Should Keep In Mind For those thinking of jumping in, this setup is a double-edged sword. A 500% move in one month would be historic—even by meme-coin standards. But that kind of rally demands perfect market conditions and lots of buying momentum. If support breaks again, losses could come just as fast. Traders who choose to play this rebound may want to set clear profit targets and tight stops. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView