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Solana is treading on thin ice as it tests a crucial support zone between $175 and $177, a range that could decide its next big move. After a sharp rejection near $190, selling pressure is mounting, raising the stakes for bulls trying to defend this key area. Momentum Fades: Solana Slips Below Key Moving Averages According to GemXBT in a recent post, Solana (SOL) is currently trending downward, showing signs of sustained bearish pressure. The price has slipped below critical short-term moving averages such as the 20 MA, 10 MA, and 5 MA, suggesting that sellers are firmly in control for now. This breakdown below key technical levels is often seen as a precursor to further downside, especially when not accompanied by strong bullish reversals. At present, the immediate key support level is around $175. If this support holds, there could be a chance for a technical bounce, particularly as the RSI is now sitting in the oversold zone. Historically, oversold RSI levels can signal potential reversals or at least a short-term pause in selling pressure. However, traders are watching closely for confirmation before expecting a recovery, especially with resistance looming near $190. Adding to the bearish picture, the MACD remains below the signal line, reinforcing negative sentiment in the market and downside pressure. Until SOL can reclaim the broken moving averages and flip $190 into support, the technical outlook leans cautious, with the potential for continued volatility. Key Support Retest: Can $175–$177 Hold The Line? In a recent post on X, AlgoCats shared insights from the Solana daily chart, highlighting a critical price zone. The analyst pointed out that SOL is currently testing the $175–$177 support range, an area that once served as resistance and is now being re-evaluated as a potential floor. This zone has become a key battleground between bulls and bears in the short term. AlgoCats also drew attention to a notable upper wick on the latest daily candle, which extended into the $189–$190 region before facing a sharp rejection. This wick suggests heavy selling pressure at those higher levels, likely due to long liquidations and the presence of a significant supply zone. Such price action often reflects a lack of buying strength and the presence of aggressive sellers. Now, the focus shifts to whether the $175–$177 support can withstand the ongoing bearish momentum. According to AlgoCats, how SOL behaves around this zone will determine the next move. If support holds, a bounce is possible, but if it breaks, the market may see further downside pressure in the near term.

The British pound has posted losses for a second straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3446, down 0.43% on the day. UK retail sales posts 0.9% gainThe UK wrapped up the week with the June retail sales report. The gain of 0.9% m/m was a strong rebound from the 2.8% drop in May but missed the market estimate of 1.2%. The driver of the positive release was an increase in food and motor fuel. Yearly, retail sales rose 1.7% following a 1.1% decline in May and just shy of the market estimate of 1.8%. Retail sales recorded growth across all main sectors, boosted by the unseasonably June weather. Will BoE lower rates in August? The Bank of England finds itself between a rock and a hard place ahead of the August meeting. The labor market is showing cracks, which supports the case for a rate cut, but inflation has been moving higher and lowering rates could boost inflation even further. In June, inflation was hotter than expected. Headline CPI rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, and core CPI climbed to 3.7% from 3.5%. There are differing opinions among board members regarding rate policy and this was clear to see when the board at the June meeting, when six members voted to hold rates while three voted to lower rates by a quarter point to 4.0%. Today's retail sales report was the final tier-1 event before the August meeting and investors will be monitoring any comments coming from BoE officials, looking for a hint as to whether the Bank will cut rates or stay or remain on the sidelines at the next meeting. GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.3476 and tested support at 1.3447 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.3390There is resistance at 1.3533 and 1.3619 GBPUSD 1-Day Chart, July 25, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In 2025 the 60‑day rollover rule remains a crucial regulation for retirement savers moving funds between qualified accounts without incurring taxes or penalties. Under this rule an account owner who receives a distribution from a traditional IRA 401(k) or similar tax‑deferred plan must redeposit the full amount, including any withheld taxes, into another eligible retirement account within sixty days to maintain tax‑deferred status. Failing to meet this deadline results in the withdrawal being treated as taxable income and, for those under age fifty nine and a half, subject to a ten percent early withdrawal penalty. Indirect rollovers, sometimes viewed as short‑term liquidity options, compel the recipient to replace both the distributed amount and any withheld portion, often twenty percent from a 401(k) or ten percent from an IRA withdrawal, to avoid tax consequences. Furthermore a taxpayer is allowed only one indirect rollover per twelve month period across all IRAs although trustee to trustee or direct rollovers involving employer plans are exempt from this annual limit. The IRS may allow late rollovers under exceptional circumstances such as errors by a financial institution or personal hardship but obtaining a waiver involves specific administrative steps and documentation. Given the tight timeframe and potential financial pitfalls, financial advisors strongly recommend using direct rollovers or trustee‑to‑trustee transfers to move retirement funds efficiently and safely. The 60-day rollover rule is one of the most important yet often overlooked regulations governing asset transfer between different retirement accounts. While it offers a significant advantage for account holders to diversify their investment strategy or switch to more advantageous accounts, failure to comply can lead to severe penalties. This article will explore the intricacies of the 60-day rollover rule and offer insights into how best to navigate it. What are the costs of breaking the 60-day rollover rule? Breaking the 60-day rollover rule comes with significant financial repercussions. When you take a distribution from a retirement account with the intent to roll it over into another retirement account, the IRS provides a 60-day window to complete this process. Please do so within this timeframe to avoid the distribution being treated as taxable income for that tax year. Consequently, you will be subject to regular income tax rates on the total distribution amount. Moreover, if you are younger than 59½ years, an additional 10% early withdrawal penalty may also apply. Therefore, non-compliance with the 60-day rollover rule can lead to a double financial setback: taxation at the standard income rate plus an early withdrawal penalty. For instance, if you withdraw $50,000 from a 401(k) and fail to roll it over within 60 days, you could face income taxes at your marginal rate and an additional $5,000 penalty under 59½. In addition, the amount you don’t roll over becomes ineligible for tax-deferred growth, negating the main advantage of a retirement account. Therefore, missing the 60-day rollover window can significantly impair your long-term retirement planning. How to safely navigate a rollover Navigating a rollover safely within the confines of the 60-day rule requires meticulous planning and execution. Here are some steps to ensure you stay on the right side of this regulation: Preparation: Before initiating the rollover, ensure the receiving account is set up and can accept the rollover funds. Some accounts may have restrictions on the types of assets they can accept. Documentation: Keep accurate records of all transactions, including distribution and deposit slips, statements, and any correspondence with financial institutions involved in the rollover. Time Management: Mark your calendar with the 60-day deadline to ensure you don’t miss it. Aim to complete the rollover well before the 60-day window closes. Consult Professionals: Talk to tax professionals and financial advisors who can guide you through the process, particularly if you are rolling over complex assets or if the rollover involves multiple accounts. Follow-up: Once the rollover is complete, check your statements to confirm that the transaction has been accurately recorded and that no penalties or unnecessary withholding taxes have been applied. What Types of Plans Can I Roll Over? You can utilize the 60-day rollover rule to transfer funds between various types of retirement accounts, including: From Account Type To Account Types Permitted Within 60 Days Notes Traditional IRA Traditional IRA, SEP IRA, SIMPLE IRA (after two years), Roth IRA (as a conversion) Conversions to Roth result in taxable income Roth IRA Roth IRA Only once per 12 months across all your Roth IRAs 401(k), 403(b), 457(b) Traditional IRA, Roth IRA (if permitted by plan), another employer plan Requires distribution check options; Roth conversion taxable SIMPLE IRA (after two years) Traditional IRA, Roth IRA, another SIMPLE IRA (if same custodian) Before two years must roll into SIMPLE IRA SEP IRA Traditional IRA, Roth IRA Taxable upon Roth conversion Employer Plan (e.g. 401(k)) Employer Plan, Traditional IRA, Roth IRA (if plan allows) Plan must permit rollovers; check withholding on IRA conversions You can also roll over assets from Roth accounts to other Roth accounts, but different rules and tax implications may apply. Thoroughly research each type of account’s specific rules and features, as some may offer benefits that others do not. Why Make an IRA Rollover? Making an IRA rollover can offer several advantages: Consolidation: If you have multiple retirement accounts, consolidating them into a single IRA can simplify management and reduce administrative costs. Diversification: An IRA may offer investment options not available in a 401(k), allowing for a more diversified portfolio. Lower Fees: IRAs often have lower administrative fees than employer-sponsored plans like 401(k)s. Greater Control: With an IRA, you aren’t tied to an employer’s plan rules, offering greater control over your retirement savings. Direct vs. Indirect Rollovers There are two methods to perform a rollover: direct and indirect. Direct Rollover: In a direct rollover, the funds move directly from one retirement account to another without you ever touching the money. This is the safest and most straightforward way to conduct a rollover. It ensures that no taxes or penalties are applied to the transferred sum. Indirect Rollover: In an indirect rollover, you take a distribution from one retirement account and deposit it into another within 60 days. While this method offers more flexibility, it comes with the risk of missing the 60-day deadline, thereby incurring penalties and taxes. Direct rollover is generally the better option as it minimizes the risks associated with the 60-day rollover rule. Conclusion Understanding the 60-day rollover rule is crucial for anyone planning to move assets between retirement accounts. Failure to comply with this regulation can result in substantial financial penalties, including taxation and potential early withdrawal penalties. Safely navigating a rollover involves preparation, time management, and, perhaps most importantly, consulting with professionals to ensure you’re making the most of your retirement savings. With the right approach, you can leverage the 60-day rollover rule to optimize your investment strategy and secure a financially stable retirement. Whether you are new to gold investing or have been a collector for years, it is essential to research and work with a reputable dealer. American Bullion is a trusted resource for those looking to invest in gold IRAs, offering a wide selection of gold coins from around the world and expert guidance on which coins are right for you. So why wait? Invest in gold coins today and start building a brighter financial future. The post What Is The 60-Day Rollover Rule For Retirement Accounts in 2025? first appeared on American Bullion.

Bitcoin’s old four-year rhythm has been upended, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He argued on Thursday that the crypto’s cycle is no longer in existence, driven out by big players stepping in. His latest comments follow a public rethink after he called a market top just a few months ago and got it wrong. Institutional Buyers Rewrite Rules Based on reports, Bitcoin Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries are changing the game. In the first half of the year, treasury companies bought twice as much BTC as the ETFs did. That shows how deep pockets can fill the gap when veteran whales move out. Short sells and panic dumps used to knock prices hard. Now, a growing pool of steady institutional demand comes in right behind those exits. It’s a shift that could reshape Bitcoin’s usual peaks and valleys. Ki Young Ju first sounded the alarm in March, when Bitcoin hovered around $83,000. At that time, every on-chain metric pointed down. The bull score hit multi-year lows. BBMC indicators and the MVRV ratio flashed red warnings. Whale liquidations piled up, and many saw a bear market beginning. Market Indicators Flash Early Warnings Support levels stood strong after an April retest. Those same bears had to eat their words when Bitcoin bounced back. By May, prices broke past the January high and surged to $112,000. This month, BTC even hit $123,000 before taking a breather. That quick turnaround forced Young Ju to admit he was wrong—and to thank investors for showing him the mistake. He now says the old cycle theory no longer applies, since institutional players don’t follow the same playbook as retail buyers. Public companies like MicroStrategy (now Strategy) and other treasury-focused firms have become major holders. They treat Bitcoin as a reserve asset. ETFs Big Appetite Meanwhile, spot ETFs keep buying almost daily. That dual demand has built a solid floor under prices and given big whales less sway. Retail investors may still buy late and sell early. But now their moves are cushioned by far larger, long-term stakes. Experts See A New Phase Major voices in crypto echo this view. Michael Saylor has declared that the bear market era is no longer here. JAN3 chief executive officer Samson Mow and Binance CEO CZ even project that this cycle could take Bitcoin all the way to $1 million. Other big names in the industry, like ‘Rich Dad Poo Dad’ author Robert Kiyosaki, believe so as well. Those bullish calls come from people who back institutional growth over hype-driven swings. They see big money as a stabilizer rather than a speculator. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Meet Little Pepe ($LILPEPE), the pint-sized amphibian on a quest to revive the heroic spirit that first drew us into the meme coin universe, but he’s doing it his way. Forget old, slow, and expensive. Little Pepe is about to show everyone how it’s really done. The presale is hopping, already raking in over $12M! Little Pepe blends iconic meme humor with smart tech, forging a pathway to success. A New Reign Built on Speed Little Pepe ($LILPEPE) isn’t just floating on a lilypad on the blockchain; it’s dived right into its own riptide lane. This isn’t a slow, clunky legacy system. It’s a dedicated Layer 2 blockchain, built into Ethereum, but supercharged for real-world hustle. The site proudly shouts that the EVM-compatible powerhouse is built for speed and efficiency, offering fees even lower than Polygon. Say goodbye to soul-crushing gas fees and hello to warp speed transactions. For the builders out there, this is your new playground, all the developer tools you know and love, but now with lightning-fast results. And to sweeten the deal: zero percent transaction taxes, whether buying or selling! The community’s already buzzing, making enough noise to get Little Pepe ranked #7 in the best crypto presales of 2025 list. The Presale Phenomenon: Hopping Across the Lilypad Stages Little Pepe’s whole life is plotted out for him. His destiny is set, and he has no choice but to succeed. We’re now in the ‘pregnancy’ phase, as the roadmap calls it — in other words, the presale. This phase has flown through multiple stages with astonishing speed, with regular announcements on the presale’s official X channel. The token price has increased incrementally with each stage, rewarding those who jumped in early and proving the demand for this kind of coin. The momentum speaks to the project’s appeal and success in hitting major milestones, attracting both casual meme fans and serious crypto enthusiasts. The Royal Riches: A $777 Treasure Hunt for the Loyal To kick things off with a bang, the $LILPEPE crew is throwing a party fit for a king, complete with a colossal giveaway. There’s $777K in tokens up for grabs, with ten lucky champions each bagging $77K. Who couldn’t use a wee windfall like that? If you want to join the hunt, it’s simpler than catching flies on a summer’s day. Just invest $100 or more in the presale on its official page. Then complete a few quick tasks: follow its social media, share the good word, and tag your fellow meme enthusiasts. The more you spread the royal decree, the higher your chances of hitting the jackpot. The giveaway has already attracted over 30K entries, proving the excitement is real. Remember, the magic only happens on the official site. Don’t fall for lookalikes. No one from the Little Pepe court will ever ask for your sensitive information. Stay savvy and safe. Hop in and buy $LILPEPE for $0.0017 from its official presale site, then stay alert for the giveaway! The Epic Saga: A Story for Web3 Every generation needs a king, and every king needs a legendary tale. $LILPEPE’s is one for the Web3 books. It’s the story of old meme empires falling and a new sovereign rising, backed by robust code and a passionate crew. Its roadmap reads like a novel, from royal birthright, all the way up to the epic quest for a $1B market cap. Is Little Pepe the true king of the meme coins? Time will tell, but the whole idea was to build something fun, but lasting. It’s not enough to great technology, you need a narrative that connects with the meme coin market. Little Pepe revives the original pioneering spirit of the best meme coins but defends its claim with state-of-the-art blockchain architecture. A New Reign Begins Little Pepe ($LILPEPE) is big in ambition, bigger in tech, and propelled by a community growing faster than a toadstool after the rain. As the whitepaper shares, ‘$LILPEPE isn’t just hopping into the crypto scene, he’s kicking down the door with dank memes, zero taxes, and a lightning-fast Layer 2.’ With the presale roaring ahead and the colossal giveaway still open, this could be one of the most exciting meme launches we’ve seen in a while. However, here’s the word of caution from a wise old frog. The crypto swamp can be unpredictable, and things can change faster than a chameleon changes color. Before you leap, do your own research and understand your limits. Only invest what you can afford.

Three workers who were trapped at Newmont’s (NYSE, ASX: NEM)(TSX: NGT) Red Chris mine in northwest British Columbia, Canada, have been safely rescued after more than 60 hours underground. Newmont said that Kevin Coumbs, Darien Maduke and Jesse Chubaty — contractors for B.C.-based Hy-Tech Drilling — were in “good health and spirits” after being brought to the surface late Thursday night. The rescue followed two significant rockfalls that occurred early Tuesday morning, blocking their exit and later cutting off communication. “This was a carefully planned and meticulously executed rescue plan,” the company said in a statement. Newmont said that, before losing contact on Wednesday, the men had confirmed they were in one of the mine’s refuge chambers with steady access to food, water, and air. They were rescued at approximately10:40 PM local time Thursday (2:40 AM ET Friday), following the complex, but carefully coordinated operation. Newmont halted all operations at Red Chris during the rescue efforts. The team used drones and a remote-controlled scoop, brought from the company’s Brucejack mine, to clear the massive debris—estimated at 20 to 30 metres long and up to eight metres high. Newmont credited the successful outcome to “tireless collaboration, technical expertise, and above all, safety and care.” B.C.’s Mining and Critical Minerals Minister Jagrup Brar said in a post in X he could not describe “the relief we all feel knowing that these three workers are going to be able to go home to their families.” Red Chris, in production since 2015, is a joint venture owned and operated 70% by Newmont and 30% by Imperial Metals (TSX: III). The mine is about 80 km south of Dease Lake and 1,050 km north of Vancouver. Red Chris, located about 80 km south of Dease Lake and 1,050 kilometres north of Vancouver, is a joint venture operated by Newmont (70%) and Imperial Metals (30%). The gold-copper mine has been in production since 2015. A full investigation into the incident is underway.

Bitcoin is making its first meaningful move since breaking its all-time highs and reaching the $123,000 level. After consolidating in a tight range for nearly two weeks, the price is now pulling back toward $115,000—marking a 6% decline from recent highs. While this retracement has stirred caution among short-term traders, data suggests there is little cause for concern at this stage. According to CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Price Drawdown Analysis chart, the current 6% pullback remains well within the normal volatility range observed during prior bull phases. This suggests the move is more likely a healthy market reset than the beginning of a deeper correction. As Bitcoin tests the lower boundary of its former range, investors will closely watch for renewed strength or signs of distribution. For now, fundamentals and long-term holder data remain supportive, keeping bullish sentiment intact despite short-term volatility. The next few sessions may determine whether BTC can bounce decisively or enter a broader consolidation phase. Bitcoin Volatility Remains Within Norms As Market Enters Critical Phase According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s recent price action may appear sharp at first glance, but deeper analysis shows that current volatility remains well within normal historical ranges. Over the past quarter, Bitcoin’s most notable intraday drops on the 5-minute timeframe reached -10% in early June and -12% in mid-June. Meanwhile, the average weekly drawdown, represented by the green line on Adler’s chart, remains stable at 3.8%. The current -6% pullback—following Bitcoin’s recent breakout to $123K and its retrace toward $115K—sits only 2.2% deeper than this weekly average and is still far from the panic-triggering extremes seen in previous months. Despite the dramatic visual appearance, Adler emphasizes that the current correction aligns with a standard consolidation cycle often seen during bull markets. What makes this moment especially relevant is how other parts of the crypto market are behaving. While altcoins retraced heavily yesterday, today they are holding above key support levels, signaling potential strength and a possible shift in market dynamics. This resilience across major altcoins could mark a rotation of capital within the market, rather than an exit. BTC Falls Below Key Support as Volume Spikes Bitcoin has broken below the tight consolidation range it maintained for over two weeks, with price dropping sharply to a local low of $115,009 before slightly recovering to $115,759. This marks a clear technical breakdown of the horizontal channel between $115,724 and $122,077, as shown in the 4-hour chart. The breach below the lower bound coincided with a spike in volume, signaling decisive selling pressure from market participants. The drop pushed BTC below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) simple moving averages (SMAs), both of which previously acted as dynamic support. The price is now hovering just above the $115,724 horizontal support zone, which is now being retested. A failure to hold this level could open the door to deeper retracements toward the 200-day SMA near $112,104, which could act as the next major support level. Technically, a bearish structure is developing in the short term, especially after the breakdown from the triangle-like compression (marked in blue). However, the elevated volume accompanying the move may also suggest capitulation from weak hands, which can precede a reversal. In the coming sessions, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the $118K level will determine whether bulls can regain control. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Ethereum is showing renewed strength after a sharp but short-lived pullback. Following its recent high of $3,860, ETH dipped to the $3,500 zone — a key level that quickly attracted buying interest. Now, price action is pointing upward again, with Ethereum pushing to reclaim the $3,700 range, signaling bullish momentum may be back in control. Despite the recent volatility, on-chain data support the case for continued upside. According to Santiment, whales have been aggressively accumulating ETH throughout the pullback. This surge in accumulation suggests that institutional players are positioning themselves ahead of the next leg of the rally, anticipating strength in the coming months. These strategic inflows have historically preceded sustained upward trends. The resilience around the $3,500 level, combined with the swift recovery attempt, underscores Ethereum’s strong bullish structure. With a favorable macro environment, regulatory clarity, and mounting institutional interest, Ethereum appears poised for continued expansion as the second half of the year unfolds. All eyes are now on whether this bounce holds and leads to a renewed breakout above resistance. Whales Add Ethereum as US Legal Clarity Boosts Bullish Outlook Ethereum’s bullish momentum is being reinforced by aggressive accumulation from major investors. According to analyst Ali Martinez, whales have purchased more than 1.13 million ETH—worth approximately $4.18 billion—over the past two weeks. This surge in buying activity marks one of the most significant accumulation phases in recent months and signals rising confidence among institutional players. The accumulation comes at a critical time for Ethereum, which has been consolidating near the $3,700 level after a brief pullback from its $3,860 high. This whale activity not only adds fuel to the ongoing price recovery but also strengthens Ethereum’s bullish structure heading into the second half of the year. Beyond market behavior, macro and regulatory shifts are also favoring Ethereum and the broader altcoin market. The recent passage of the GENIUS Act and Clarity Act by the US Congress marks a pivotal moment for crypto legislation. These new laws offer long-sought legal clarity for decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and digital assets, encouraging US-based innovation and capital flows into the space. This evolving regulatory framework removes one of the biggest barriers for institutional adoption of Ethereum and DeFi. With clearer rules and a growing appetite for ETH among whales, the stage is set for a potentially explosive rally if current momentum holds. ETH Holds Strong After Pullback Ethereum (ETH) is showing renewed strength after a brief correction from its local top at $3,860. As seen in the 4-hour chart, ETH dipped to $3,500 but quickly bounced, reclaiming the $3,700 zone and closing in on key resistance at $3,776 and $3,860. This rebound indicates strong buyer interest and resilience in the uptrend. The price is now trading above all major moving averages (50, 100, and 200), which are stacked bullishly. The 50-SMA at $3,648 has provided dynamic support in recent sessions, while the 100-SMA and 200-SMA at $3,304 and $2,883, respectively, remain far below current price action—underscoring the strength of this upward move. Volume is picking up slightly as ETH consolidates in a tight range near resistance. A breakout above $3,860 would likely open the door to a move toward new local highs, while failure to breach this level may result in another test of the $3,648 support area. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Asia Market Wrap - Positive Sentiment Wanes A seven-day global stock rally slowed down in Asia as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts made investors more cautious. The MSCI All Country World Index dropped 0.2% as Asian stocks ended their longest winning streak since January. Hong Kong shares fell 1.1%, and Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.8% after hitting a record high on Thursday. Strong US jobs data on Thursday weakened the argument for Fed rate cuts. While no rate cut is expected at next week’s Fed meeting, expectations for further cuts this year have dropped to less than two after jobless claims fell for the sixth week in a row. Firms like Goldman Sachs and Citadel are advising clients to buy cheap hedges to protect against potential losses in US stocks, as risks could threaten the market’s record-breaking run. Major indexes have surged thanks to US trade deals and strong earnings reports. The S&P 500 has jumped 28% since April 8 and hit a new record on Thursday—its 10th in 19 days—driven by tech stocks. Wall Street’s fear gauge is at its lowest level since February. For more information on the Asian session, read Asia midday: Asia stock markets pull back as USD rebounds, Hang Seng Index (Chart of the day) UK Retail Sales Gets Summer Boost UK retail sales grew by 0.9% in June 2025, bouncing back from a 2.8% drop in May but falling short of the expected 1.2% increase. This was the fourth rise this year. Food sales went up by 0.7%, recovering from a 5.4% drop in May, thanks to better supermarket sales, especially beverages, boosted by warm weather. Fuel sales saw a big jump of 2.8%, the largest since May 2024, also helped by good weather. Online sales rose 1.7%, reaching their highest level since February 2022. Non-food sales increased slightly by 0.2%, with department stores and clothing shops benefiting from promotions and weather-driven demand. Excluding fuel, sales rose 0.6%, also recovering from a 2.8% fall. Compared to last year, retail sales grew by 1.7%, reversing a 1.1% drop in May, but just below the expected 1.8% growth. European Open - Earnings Mixed, Shares Slip European stocks fell on Friday, reversing gains from the previous day, as investors reviewed mixed corporate earnings and awaited updates on EU-US trade talks ahead of President Trump's tariff deadline next week. The STOXX 600 index dropped 0.4% to 549.36 points but was still set for small weekly gains. The UK's FTSE 100 also fell 0.4%, pulling back from its record high on Thursday, while most other European markets were also down. Investors celebrated trade deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines this week, but hopes for a US-EU agreement remain as talks continue. Financial stocks led the losses, falling 1.3%, while basic resources stocks dropped 0.6%, with Fresnillo down 2.3%. Among individual companies: Puma shares plunged 15.1% after cutting its full-year outlook and reporting weak results. JD Sports fell 1.5%. Valeo dropped nearly 9% after lowering its sales forecast. Traton, Volkswagen's truck unit, fell 4.4% after cutting its full-year outlook. On the positive side: Carrefour rose 6% after strong half-year results. Volkswagen gained 2.7% after the CEO announced plans to speed up cost cuts, recovering from an earlier 2.4% drop due to a revised outlook. NatWest rose nearly 2% after reporting better-than-expected profits and announcing a £750 million share buyback. In economic news, German business morale improved in July but less than expected. On the FX front, the yen strengthened to 147.10 per dollar, heading for a 1% weekly gain, its best since mid-May. A Reuters poll suggests Japan's central bank may raise rates by 25 basis points this year. The dollar index fell to 97.448, down 1% for the week, marking its weakest performance in a month. The euro held steady at $1.1754, close to its near four-year high of 1.183 earlier this month, and has risen 13.5% this year. The Australian dollar climbed to 0.6593, near an eight-month high, boosted by improved risk appetite after recent trade deals. Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices dipped on Friday as progress in U.S. trade talks reduced demand for safe-haven assets. However, a weaker dollar helped limit the decline. The precious metal is once again below the $3350/oz handle. Oil prices held steady on Friday, supported by optimism over trade talks boosting the global economy and oil demand, while news of possible increased supply from Venezuela kept gains in check. Brent crude rose 38 cents (0.55%) to 69.56 a barrel, and US WTI crude increased 34 cents (0.51%) to 66.37. For the week, Brent was set for a 0.4% gain, while WTI was down 1.44%. Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, US durable goods orders are on their way later in the day. In the interim, trade deal negotiations should continue to dominate the conversation. It will also be interesting to see if Fed Chair Powell faces fresh criticism following the Trump administration visit. Such a move could lead to further USD weakness. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index has pulled back from yesterday's all-time highs around 9163 to trade around 9112 at the time of writing. A brief move higher this morning may keep bulls interested but it does appear that trade deal optimism may be waning. A trade deal announcement between the EU and US or UK and US could help ease tensions at a faster rate. The FTSE has broken back below the 70 level on the RSI period 14 (see chart below). A break of the 50 level could be another sign that bearish momentum is building. Should such a move not occur. Caution may be the best way to proceed as a renewed rally to the upside could materialize. Immediate support rests at 9110 before the 9048 and 9000 handles come into focus. The upside does not have any historical data to focus on and thus I will look toward psychological numbers like 9250 and potentially 9500. FTSE 100 Daily Chart, July 25. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Overview: The greenback is firm as the week winds down. Next week could be one of the most eventful of the year, with FOMC meeting, US and eurozone Q2 GDP, US PCE deflator and jobs data, and the August 1 "reciprocal tariff" extension deadline. The recovery in US rates has seen the dollar rise toward JPY148 from below JPY146 yesterday despite rising expectations that the Bank of Japan can raise rates again later this year. The UK's string of poor economic news continued today with a smaller than expected recovery in June retail sales (0.9%) after a 2.8% drop in May. After falling almost 0.55% yesterday, sterling is off another 0.35% today. Emerging market currencies are mostly weaker. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate higher for the first time in four sessions. Stocks and bonds are mostly heavier today. After Japan's Topix set a record high yesterday, it came off around 0.85% in a sea of red in the region. Among the large markets, only South Korea's Kospi eked out a gain. Europe's Stoxx 600, which rose for the past two sessions, is seeing its gains pared today (~-0.3%). US index futures are little changed. European benchmark 10-year yields are 4-6 bp higher. Yields are mostly 13-15 bp higher this week. Poor data has lent support to the UK Gilts and that 10-year yield is up about six basis points this week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is a couple basis points higher, near 4.42%, which is up about four basis points on the week. Gold was sold to a new low for the week (~$3343.25). It peaked this week on Wednesday near $3439 to record the high for the month. September WTI reached a high for the week around $66.75 earlier today but has come back off and is near session lows a little above $66.00. The US oil rig count has fallen for 15 consecutive weeks (to 422), and Baker Hughes estimate is due later today. USD: The sixth consecutive decline in weekly jobless claims and the stronger-than-expected July composite PMI (54.6 vs. 52.9 in June), where growth in services offset the first sub-50 reading in manufacturing this year lifted the dollar on the back of firmer US interest rates. The Dollar Index rose for the first time since last Thursday. It briefly traded above 97.50 yesterday and reached slightly above 97.70 today. A band of resistance extends toward 97.80. That said, the five-day moving average is slipping through the 20-day moving average. Economists project a slowing of private investment in Q2 and Q3, and today's preliminary estimate of June durable goods orders and shipments are expected to slow sequentially. A drop in Boeing orders is going to see a large unwinding of the 16. 4% increase in May orders. Excluding defense and aircraft orders, durable goods orders may have eked out a small gain after a 1.7% surge in May. Shipments of those core orders, a proxy for capex, are expected to slow to half of May's 0.4% increase. A 0.2% gain would translate to 1.6% annualized gain in Q2 after a 5.6% annualized increase in Q1 and 2. 4% in Q4 24. Next week is among the busiest of the year, with the first estimate of Q2 GDP, the FOMC meeting, PCE deflators, the July jobs report and the next "liberation day" August 1 for US tariffs. EURO: The euro has risen above the previous day's high and held above the previous day's low for the past five sessions. It reached almost $1.1790 yesterday, its best level since July 7 before stalling. It slipped below $1.1735 today. A break of $1.1730 could see $1.1700-20 probed in North America today. Still, the market took a hawkish message from the ECB which stood pat yesterday. The swaps market reduced the chances of a rate cut before the end of the year to about 60% from almost 90% at the close of Wednesday. The anticipated year-end target rate is the highest in more than three months. The US two-year premium over Germany has narrowed to about 197 bp, the least in about three weeks. The daily momentum indicators are also turning higher. Separately, the eurozone's M3 money supply rose by 3.3% in June, slowing from 3.9% in May, and the weakest growth since last September. It has been chopping between 3.7% and 3.9% this year. Before the pandemic, it rose 4-5% (2018-2019). Lending improved. Loans to businesses rose 2.7% (vs. 2.5% year-over-year in May) and to 2.2% households (2.0% in May). Lastly, as measured by the IFO survey, German expectations ticked up in July to 90.7 from 90.6, the highest since April 2023 and the current assessment improved to 86.5 from 86.2. The measure of the overall business climate reached 88.6 (from 88.4). It has not fallen this year, and the July reading is the best since last May. CNY: The yuan rose to a new high for the year yesterday in both its onshore and offshore versions. Against the offshore yuan, the dollar's decline has seen it meet the (61.8%) retracement of the rally since last September. As the dollar did more broadly, it also recovered against the yuan from almost CNH7.1440 to CNH7.1565. It has extended its recovery today and it is knocking on CNH7.17 in the European morning. Above there, the next target is near CNH7.1730 and then CNH7.1800. The dollar is posting one of its biggest gains since the end of May today. After three days of lower dollar fixes, the PBOC set it higher today (CNY7.1419 vs CNY7.1385 yesterday). Some of the observers who argued that Beijing was going to devalue the yuan now call on it to allow faster appreciation. Note that the onshore yuan rose by nearly 0.60% in Q1 and 1.3% in Q2. China will report June industrial profits over the weekend. They fell 9.1% year-over-year in May, while the year-to-date, year-over-year measure contracted by 1.1%. We argue that China's model of capital is reminiscent in some important ways with what had previously been called the "Rhine Model”. Access to patient capital (banks instead of markets) encourages competition for market share rather than profits. The decentralized planning (local government) and the competition among provinces also provide incentives for over-investment and excess capacity in China. Many observers who focus on under-consumption insist on only considering it as a percentage of GDP. They tend to ignore or downplay the outright rise in consumption in China. A fair reading of the data recognizes that consumption is rising but investment has risen as fast if not faster. Also, the observers focusing on under-consumption conflate producer goods and consumer goods. Producer goods like steel or cement, for example, will not be absorbed by Chinese households. JPY: The dollar reached session highs near midday in New York yesterday a whisker shy of JPY147.00. Follow-through buying today extended the gains to JPY147.90 today, the (61.8%) retracement of the pullback from last week's high (~JPY149.20). The US 10-year yield peaked about an hour after the sixth consecutive decline in US weekly jobless claims and about 15 minutes before the firm US PMI (outside of manufacturing). The US Treasury yield is firmer today. The rolling 30-day correlation of the changes in the exchange rate and the US 10-year yield (~0.70) remains near the upper end of its (five-year) range. Tokyo's CPI has not risen since April when it reached 3.4% year-over-year, its highest level since January 2023 when the multiyear high was recorded at 4.4%. It slipped for the second consecutive month in July and at 2.9% (vs. 3.1%), it is the lowest since February. The core measure, which excludes fresh food, also eased for the second straight month to stand at 2.9% (from 3.1%). At averaged almost 2. 4% in Q1 25 and nearly 3. 4% in Q2. The measure that excludes fresh food and energy was flat at 3.1%. Lastly, the swaps market has 21 bp of tightening discounted at the end of year. A week ago, it was 16 bp and at the end of June 14 bp were discounted. GBP: Sterling's recovery stalled around 12/100 of a cent beyond the (50%) retracement of the leg down that began earlier this month from almost $1.3800. The disappointing PMI saw sterling slip through Wednesday low to nearly $1.3500 yesterday. It looked vulnerable, and the disappointing retail sales report today sent sterling to support near $1.3450. The risk extends toward $1.3400, though the intraday momentum indicators are stretched. UK retail sales bounced after a dramatic 2.7% decline in May. However, the 0.6% gain was half of what was expected and leaves UK retail sales lower in Q2 from Q1. Retail sales rose a cumulative 2.1% in Q1 and fell by 0.6% in Q2. This follows the unexpected 0. 1% contraction in May GDP (after a 0.3% decline in April's output). UK growth led the G10 in Q1 with a 0. 7% quarter-over-quarter expansion. The 0.1% growth economists penciled in for Q2 would likely put the UK toward the bottom of G10 performances in Q2. CAD: The greenback put a low in nearly a three-week low on Wednesday near CAD1.3575 and reached CAD1.3645 yesterday. The US dollar gains have been extended to CAD1.3680 today. It has met the (50%) retracement of the leg lower from the July 17 high (~CAD1.3775). The next retracement (61.8%) is closer to CAD1.3700. Dragged down by autos and part, Canadian retail sales tumbled 1.1% in May, as StatsCan preliminary data warned. Yet, the data warns that the Canadian consumer has pulled back. Excluding autos, retail sales fell (-0.2%) for the third consecutive month. Statscan also reported that 32% of retailers indicated they were impacted by the trade tensions with the US, down from 36% in April. The most frequently cited impacts were price increases, increased cost for raw materials, shipping, or labor. and shifts in demand. Sales fell in 9 of the 10 provinces (Nova Scotia saw sales of building materials and garden equipment underpin the increase). The pessimism was contained by Statscan early estimate that sales rebounded 1.6% in June. AUD: The Australian dollar's four-day rally ended yesterday but only after it set a new high for the year at $0.6625. The Aussie looks tired after rallying ~2.65% (~1. 7 cents) since the low on July 17 (~$0.6455). It has pulled back further today and is testing the $0.6555 area late in the European morning. Support is seen next around $0.6520-40. On July 17, the Aussie frayed the lower Bollinger Band and yesterday, it frayed the upper band (~$0.6620). The middle of the band and the 20-day moving average is about $0.6550 today. The net effect of this week's developments, including comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is that the futures market scaled back thoughts of three cuts between now and the end of the year. A week ago, the futures market had a little more than 66 bp of cuts discounted for this year and now it is a little less than 60 bp. The pricing still seems too much and barring a significant downside surprise in next week's Q2 CPI, we suspect it can drift toward 50 bp. MXN: After setting a new low for the year near MXN18.5250 on Wednesday, the greenback remained in the trough yesterday. It was unable to do more than poke above MXN18.59. It remains in a narrow range today (~MXN18.5250-MXN18.5735). The momentum indicators did not get over-extended but have turned down. A move into the MXN18.35-40 area looks reasonable. Mexico reported slightly softer than expected CPI for the first half of July. The headline pace slowed to 3.55% year-over-year. That is the lowest since the end of January. The year-over-year core inflation rate slowed for the first time since the first half of March. 4.25% pace compares with 4.38% in the second half of June. It has not been below 4% since the first half of May. Disclaimer

The Japanese yen is down for a second straight day. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, up 0.60% on the day. The yen climbed 1.2% early in the week but has reversed directions and pared most of these gains. Tokyo Core CPI falls to 2.9% Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.9% y/y in July, down from 3.1% in June and below the consensus of 3.0%. Tokyo Core CPI has slowed for a second straight month but still remains well above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%. The driver behind the deceleration was lower costs for energy, water and rice. Still, food prices, especially rice, have been soaring and disgruntled voters punished the government in the recent election, depriving it of a majority in parliament. The so-called "core-core CPI", which excludes fresh food and fuel and is closely monitored by the BoJ, remained unchanged at 3.1% and matching the consensus. The BoJ wants to see sustainable underlying inflation and this strong reading is encouraging. BoJ expected to hold rates next week The BoJ meets next week and is widely expected to consider its wait-and-see stance. The central bank hasn't raised rates since January, as US President Trump's tariffs stifled any hopes that that the BoJ would gradually raise rates in the first half of the year. This week's announcement that the US and Japan had reached a trade deal has raised expectations that the BoJ will hike rates before the end of the year. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said that the trade deal removed uncertainty and raised the likelihood that inflation would remain sustainable at 2%, a prerequisite for further rate hikes. The BoJ isn't likely to change any policy settings at the upcoming meeting, but will provide an updated quarterly report which will likely refer to the US-Japan agreement. The BoJ could revise upwards its inflation forecast, which would raise expectation of a rate hike in the coming months. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 147.12 and 147.47. Above, 148.11 is under pressure146.48 and 146.13 are the next support levels USDJPY 1-Day Chart, July 25, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin’s summer melt-up has come to an abrupt halt. The benchmark cryptocurrency slipped from an intraday peak above $119,000 late Thursday to trade as low as $115,800 in European morning hours, its weakest print in a fortnight. The 2.7 percentage-point slide followed an unmistakable on-chain signal: Galaxy Digital quietly pushed more than 10,000 BTC—worth about $1.18 billion at the time—onto major exchanges in less than eight hours, according to wallet-tracking firm Lookonchain. Galaxy Digital Triggers Bitcoin Slide “Bitcoin sell-off still underway! Galaxy Digital deposited another 2,850 BTC ($330.44M) to exchanges,” Lookonchain warned on X in the early European morning hours, noting that the transfer originated from a Satoshi-era whale that re-awakened this month. Prior to that, the analytics account posted an alert: “Note that Galaxy Digital has deposited over 10,000 BTC ($1.18B) to exchanges in the past 8 hours!” Screenshots of Arkham Intelligence dashboards showed a series of multi-million-dollar transactions converging on Binance, Bybit and OKX. The flows are the latest chapter in a saga that began on 4 July, when an address dormant since 2011 started chopping an 80,009-BTC trove into 10,000-coin tranches. By 18 July the final 40,191 BTC—worth $4.8 billion—had landed at Galaxy, a move many analysts interpreted as a potential sale. That potential is now reality. On-chain data shows Galaxy sends Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges almost every minute to sell it. The BTC price is reacting with textbook symmetry: spot BTC slipped through $118,000 during the Asian session before knifing to $116,000 as London desks opened, wiping roughly $55 billion from bitcoin’s market value in just 4 hours. Galaxy Digital, run by billionaire Michael Novogratz, offered no public comment at the time of writing and has not filed any Form 8-K that might indicate a balance-sheet reshuffle. The firm’s most recent media appearance came on CNBC yesterday, where Novogratz repeated his view that Ether could “outperform” bitcoin over the next few months,” but did not hint at near-term selling. While motives remain opaque, market spectators were quick to theorise. “Looks like the Bitcoin selloff is Galaxy Digital market dumping from a batch of 80K BTC. Could be because they were asked to for a client, something related to Saylor, or moving into Ethereum as Novogratz suggested ETH may move more than BTC in the next few months (today on CNBC). Not worried. They have about 27K left to sell (if they’re selling the full 80k), people buy, life goes on, it continues upwards,” the crypto-focused account Autism Capital posted via X. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards commented via X: “At the same time that this OG whale is dropping 10K slugs into spot markets today, we have 30K of leveraged longs opening on the dip. Not a price prediction and changes nothing mid- to long-term, but this is not a great sign for the short-term price action. Even if all 80K BTC are nuked, if Treasury Company demand remains consistent, it will all be consumed in a couple weeks.” At press time, BTC traded at $115,476.

Russia just went beast mode on Bitcoin crypto mining. In just six months, registered mining firms skyrocketed from 91 to over 1,000. This explosive growth follows new energy-use regulations that force large-scale operations to go legit or risk getting shut down. And it’s not just some made-up story for show, Russia’s cashing in big. The state could rake in up to $700 million annually in taxes, all while holding down the #2 spot globally in BTC ▼-2.92% hashrate. With AI investments and tighter rules, the game is only heating up. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.29T24h7d30d1yAll time Regulations Spark a Mining Bitcoin Crypto Rush in Russia The game completely changed in late 2024 when Russia rolled out its first real legal framework for crypto mining. The law signed by President Putin demands that firms using more than 6,000 kWh of electricity per month register with the Federal Tax Service. Before that, the entire sector lived in a grey zone, flying under the radar. But with the new rules in place, mining firms had two choices: go legit or go dark. And clearly, most chose the former, with the number of registered mining firms jumping tenfold in just half a year. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Still, there’s tension and illegal miners haven’t disappeared, and the state is aggressively cracking down. Reports highlight new registries for tracking mining gear, raids on electricity theft, and strict caps on residential energy usage. If this trajectory continues, Russia’s crypto mining sector could be a future tech export powerhouse, fueled by regulation, AI, and raw hashrate power. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Russian crypto mining surges tenfold. $760 million will flow from taxes in Russia. The post Russian Crypto Mining Registrations Surge Tenfold appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Bitcoin faced heavy selling pressure after the news that Galaxy Digital reportedly sold off 10,000 BTC worth $1.18 billion. They later added more pressure by sending another 2,850 BTC ($330 million) to exchanges just minutes before the market started to slide. Over the last 24 hours, more than $731 million in crypto positions were liquidated, according to CoinGlass. Nearly 214,000 traders were caught in the move, many of them betting on further price increases. Ethereum dropped 1.3% to $3,598 and saw $104 million in long positions wiped out. Dogecoin took an even bigger hit, falling 7% to $0.22 and losing $26 million in longs. Despite the drop, crypto sentiment remains bullish. Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high of $123,100 on July 14. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still showing “Greed” with a score of 66. (BTCUSDT) Bitcoin is pulling back after rejecting near $122,000 and is now holding just above the $115,600 support level. If this level breaks, the next key support sits around $108,300. The overall trend remains bullish above that zone, but short-term momentum is weakening. A bounce from current levels could retest $119K–$120K, while a deeper correction might target $108K if selling accelerates. But for now, traders are cautious. If BTC drops back to $119,500, around $3 billion in short positions could be at risk. EXPLORE: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now Bitcooin Latest News – BTC Price Drops But These Altcoins Are Showing Strength While large caps dipped following the news of huge sell-offs, some altcoins surged. SYRUP by Maple Finance jumped 24.5% after being listed on Upbit, one of South Korea’s top exchanges, and is now up 33% on the day. Meanwhile, Graphite (GP) is up over 40% in the last 24 hours and nearly 4500% in one month, showing that not all crypto assets are following Bitcoin’s lead. Graphite Protocol is a creator-focused platform starting on Solana, aiming to simplify project launches across multiple blockchains like ETH and Polygon. It offers no-code tools, minting infrastructure, and on-chain utilities like casino games. In general, the rest of the altcoins are recovering from the overnight dump with BONK already up 8% and ETH recovering a 3%. 28 minutes ago BonkFun, BONK’s Launchpad, Hits New All-Time High in Market Share By Fatima BonkFun has reached a record 82.8% share of the launchpad market, its highest since launching three months ago. In the past 19 days, since becoming the leading launchpad, it has generated $26.73 million in fees, averaging $1.41 million per day. A total of 58% of BonkFun fees go directly into buying BONK: 50% is used to buy and burn BONK 4% goes to the Strategic BONK Reserves 4% funds the BonkRewards program Yesterday, BonkFun collected $1.98 million in fees, once again outperforming Solana, Ethereum, and Fantom in daily revenue. (DUNE) Many see BONK as the next big hype trade, with some comparing it to the early days of HYPE. Supporters believe Bonk is now on its way to a $10 billion+ market cap. The post [LIVE] Bitcoin Crypto News: BTC Dumps $1.18B as Liquidations Hit $731M – But Altcoins Like SYRUP and Graphite Soar appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

A seven-day rally in global equities paused during Thursday’s Asian session, following a mixed overnight performance on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 slid 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pushed to fresh record highs, up 0.1% and 0.3%. Gains were driven by mega-cap tech names including Nvidia (+1.7%), Amazon (+1.7%), Microsoft (+1%), and Alphabet (+0.9%). Asia’s longest winning streak since January ends Asia-Pacific markets snapped their longest winning streak of the year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.9% intraday after hitting a 3.5-year high, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.9%, just shy of its all-time peak at 42,427. Singapore’s Straits Times Index also saw profit-taking, down 0.3% after a record-breaking 14-session rally. Profit-taking and the US dollar rebound pressure Asian equities Today’s Asian regional pullback likely reflects overbought conditions and a technical rebound in the US dollar after a four-day losing streak. The US dollar Index’s intraday firm tone is weighing on risk assets in Asia as traders reassess their short-term bullish momentum. The worst performers against the US dollar at this time of writing are CAD (-0.17%), AUD (-0.16%), and GBP (-0.13%) The intraday bounce seen in the US dollar is also reinforced by a slowdown in growth in Japan’s leading inflation gauge, where Tokyo’s core-core CPI (excluding food and energy) advanced at a slower pace of 2.9% y/y in July, a drop from 3.1% recorded in June. Gold slips further as US dollar firms, support levels in focus Gold (XAU/USD) declined for the third straight session, falling 0.4% intraday. The yellow metal is now approaching key support at its 20- and 50-day moving averages near US$3,333, amid headwinds from a strengthening US dollar. Economic data releases Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse) Chart of the day – Hang Seng Index at risk of minor corrective decline Fig 2: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor & medium-term trends as of 25 July 2025 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have rallied as expected. Recap our previous Chart of the day – Start of a potential impulsive bullish sequence for Hang Seng Index. The two weeks of advancement have hit the upper boundary of a major ascending channel from the January 2024 low, now acting as an intermediate resistance at 25,750. The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just staged a bearish breakdown below a parallel ascending support from 19 June. These observations suggest that bullish momentum has waned, and the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index is likely to stage a potential imminent minor corrective decline to retrace some of the gains seen from the prior rally from the 4 July 2025 low to the 24 July 2025 high (see Fig 2). Watch the 25,750 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 25,260 may reinforce the minor corrective decline sequence on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index to expose the next intermediate support at 24,940/850. On the flipside, a clearance above 25,750 revives the bullish tone for the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence to seek out the next intermediate resistance at 26,030/26,220 (Fibonacci extension and medium-term swing high areas of 20/26 October 2021). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In an interview hosted by Kyle Chassé, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart weighed in which spot ETF could attract more inflows– XRP or Solana–if approved on the same day. Both concluded that the initial wave of capital would likely favor XRP, even as longer‑term asset accumulation could tilt toward Solana. XRP or Solana: Which Spot ETF Will Dominate? Seyffart grounded his view in the performance of existing derivative‑based products. “We did have, we had a kind of a situation like this where we had futures Solana ETFs and leverage futures or derivatives based ETFs that have exposure to Solana launched before the XRP versions. And the XRP versions have got more assets and flows than the Solana version,” he said. While cautioning that “derivatives based products are nowhere near as high in the list of demand for investors as the spot products would be,” he cited that precedent alongside the strength of XRP’s retail community. According to Seyffart, a “pseudo spot product from Rex Osprey that went through a whole bunch of loopholes and end arounds to try and get exposure to spot Solana with staking” has also “done very well,” but not enough to alter his near‑term ranking. “I think in the near term, I would bet on XRP, but over the long term, I’d probably bet on Sol getting more assets,” Seyffart continued, pointing to mass‑market familiarity with XRP narratives—“anyone I know who doesn’t really know this space at all…they like XRP. They think it’s gonna be the backend settlement system for all banks”—and the persistent volume of XRP‑related discussion across TikTok, Reddit and other social platforms. “The ground game is unreal,” he said, before adding that institutional conversations skew differently: “From an institutional point of view…there seems to be a lot more serious people looking at Solana…definitely I lean Solana or Ethereum from my point of view.” Hougan concurred with the sequencing. “I actually agree. I think XRP would do better out of the gate,” he said, emphasizing that the intensity of a committed minority, rather than broad sentiment, drives day‑one ETF flows. “I think the average opinion of Solana is better than it is for XRP across crypto investors, but that’s not who buys the ETF on day one. It’s the passion, right?” Recounting his experience at an XRP‑focused event, he underscored the depth of that base: “I went to an XRP conference in Vegas on a Saturday. There were 1,200 people in the room. Every seat was taken. That’s crazy…There is an army of people who are really passionate about XRP, and I think it would do exceptionally well out of the gate. It doesn’t matter, again, that 90% of people hate it. What matters is 10% of people love it.” Hougan added that Solana’s eventual trajectory would depend on its “narrative transition,” suggesting a shifting storyline around the network could influence timing-sensitive allocations. “If Solana is ripping…it would do well,” he said. “But my base case out of the gate would be XRP, at least for the first few months.” Taken together, the analysts’ assessments outline a bifurcated path: an early surge in XRP spot ETF inflows propelled by a highly mobilized retail constituency, followed by a potential reversion in which Solana, benefiting from deeper institutional engagement and evolving narratives, could surpass XRP in total assets over time. At press time, XRP traded at $3.06.

Solana Lifts Block Capacity to Manage More Traffic Solana has increased its block capacity by 20 percent in response to growing transaction volume. The change bumps the limit from 50 million to 60 million compute units per block, giving the network more room to process activity during busy periods. The update was proposed and approved under SIMD-0256 and went live on July 23. Why Compute Units Matter Compute units measure how much work a transaction requires. A simple token transfer takes up very little. Something more complex, like a multi-swap or an advanced DeFi interaction, uses more. The more units per block, the more transactions that can fit before things start getting congested. Raising the ceiling means fewer hold-ups when usage spikes. Performance Gains During High Demand Mert Mumtaz, CEO of Helius Labs, said the increase should lead to lower fees during steady traffic and improve consistency across the board. Others in the developer community agreed, pointing out that events like major NFT launches or airdrops often push the network to its limits. By increasing the capacity, the network can handle those moments with less friction. Still a Trade-Off for Validators More room in each block sounds great for users, but it also means more work for the machines running the network. Bigger blocks require more powerful hardware, which not every validator has. That’s part of the ongoing discussion behind the scenes. Brennan Watt from Anza noted that developers are already talking about whether future limits should go to 100 or even 120 million compute units, but nothing has been finalized yet. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 Small Steps After Past Congestion This is not the first capacity change Solana has made. In June, the network quietly increased the limit from 48 to 50 million units as a precaution during volatile trading. The jump to 60 million is a more noticeable step and continues a pattern of gradual upgrades. These decisions are often based on lessons from periods of extreme congestion, like those caused by meme coin trading in the past. SolanaPriceMarket CapSOL$97.40B24h7d30d1yAll time DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Bigger Plans Still Under Debate Some developers are pushing for more ambitious upgrades. One proposal, SIMD-0286, suggests increasing the limit to 100 million compute units. That kind of change would prepare the network for much heavier use, but it also raises concerns about whether all validators would be able to keep up. Right now, the idea is still under review and hasn’t been put forward for a vote. Price Response Was Uneventful Solana’s token, SOL, didn’t show much movement after the change. Some reports mentioned a slight dip, while others pointed out that the token is still trading far above where it was a few months ago. This reaction is in line with how infrastructure updates usually play out. They’re important for long-term performance, but they rarely cause big price swings on their own. The Bigger Picture Solana’s latest upgrade reflects an ongoing effort to manage higher traffic without compromising performance. By increasing the block size now and testing what the network can handle, developers are laying the groundwork for future improvements. The move to 60 million compute units is a step forward, but the bigger changes are still being weighed carefully. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Solana raised its block compute limit from 50 million to 60 million units to better handle network congestion. Compute units define how much work each transaction requires. Increasing the limit allows more activity per block. The upgrade is meant to reduce fees and delays during high-traffic periods like airdrops or NFT launches. Validator hardware demands may increase, prompting discussions about future upgrades to 100 million units or more. SOL’s price remained steady after the update, highlighting how infrastructure changes rarely cause short-term market moves. The post Solana Raises Block Capacity to 60M Units to Ease Congestion appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

India’s tax department is going deeper into crypto enforcement. The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has confirmed it’s using artificial intelligence and tapping into international data-sharing networks to spot crypto trades that haven’t been reported. India’s crypto tax rules are now backed by global data-sharing networks, making it harder to hide assets overseas. AI Joins the Hunt According to CBDT chairman Ravi Agrawal, the department now runs over 6.5 billion transaction records through AI systems each year. These tools are designed to cross-check what people file against what’s actually happening on crypto exchanges. The goal is simple: flag the differences and catch people leaving things out. Agrawal made it clear that these tools are only used during formal investigations. They’re not scanning everything indiscriminately. Searches, raids, and surveys are the specific situations where these audits come into play. Discrepancies Lead to Instant Notices One big focus is on TDS data. India’s tax law requires exchanges to deduct one percent from every crypto transaction. The department then compares this with individual tax returns. If there’s a mismatch of over ₹100,000, that person gets an automated notice. Since the tax framework was introduced in 2022, the government has pulled in about ₹7,000 crore from crypto activity. That includes both the 30 percent tax on profits and the 1 percent deducted per trade. India Taps Global Crypto Reporting India is part of an international agreement known as CARF, short for Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework. This allows governments to swap data automatically when crypto platforms have users in multiple countries. For India, it’s a way to close the gap on offshore wallets and hidden trading activity. The CBDT sees this as a long-overdue upgrade. With many investors moving funds across borders, this kind of cooperation helps bring some transparency to transactions that were previously out of reach. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.34T24h7d30d1yAll time DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in July2025 Officials Say Privacy is Still Respected Authorities stressed that the government isn’t grabbing wallet-level data without cause. That kind of access only happens during official tax raids. The idea is to catch evaders without prying into everyone’s accounts unnecessarily. Some tax professionals say this is a smart way to balance enforcement with fairness. People want to see crypto treated seriously, but they also don’t want blanket surveillance on everyone who dabbles in digital assets. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Collection Numbers Are Already Piling Up In its first full year, the crypto tax regime brought in nearly ₹2,700 crore. The following year, it jumped to over ₹4,300 crore. Together, the total now sits at about ₹7,000 crore. On top of that, unrelated investigations using similar tools have led to corrections worth over ₹11,000 crore. Officials believe these early results prove the tech is working. They’re continuing to roll out new tools that can process even larger datasets more efficiently. A Bigger Overhaul Is Coming A new income tax code is on the horizon, with a planned rollout by April 2026. Ahead of that, the CBDT is doubling down on both domestic enforcement and international collaboration. More countries are expected to join CARF, which means more cross-border data and fewer places to hide. Crypto traders in India are likely to see tighter scrutiny going forward. The rules are already in place. Now the infrastructure is catching up. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways India is using AI tools and global data-sharing networks to catch undeclared crypto trades and enforce tax rules. The tax department scans over 6.5 billion records and issues notices when exchange data doesn’t match filed returns. Since 2022, India has collected ₹7,000 crore through a 1% TDS on crypto trades and a 30% tax on profits. India is part of CARF, a global agreement that tracks cross-border crypto activity and uncovers offshore wallets. A new tax code is due by 2026, with stricter enforcement and deeper international collaboration already in progress. The post India Targets Crypto Tax Evasion Through AI and Data Sharing appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The XRP price rally has already seen it reclaim the $3.6 level once this year before slowing back down again. This slowdown has raised concerns of a possible end to the rally. But the formation of a Cup and Saucer Pattern actually tells a different story. Since this pattern is yet to be completely fulfilled, there is the possibility that the XRP price rally has only entered a possible slowdown and will continue to rise from here. Why The XRP Price Rally Is Still In Motion Crypto analyst Cryptinsightuk took to X (formerly Twitter) to share the formation of a Cup and Saucer pattern on the XRP price pattern. This comes after double rejection from the $3.65 level, which is now acting as the major resistance to the altcoin’s continuation of the rally. However, while this double rejection is concerning, the emergence of the Cup and Saucer pattern suggests a sustained bullish trend. Cryptoinsightuk explains that despite the rejections, the XRP price has continued to put in higher lows. Naturally, this is bullish for the price regardless of where the resistance lies. Going by the chart as well, it is obvious that there is still a way to go before the pattern plays out completely and suggests a decline in the price. From here, the analyst expects that the XRP price will indeed continue to rise. One of the major reasons that this remains bullish is the fact that this formation is coming above previous range highs. Therefore, Cryptoinsightuk explains that it is more likely a continuation pattern leading to a breakout than it is to lead to a breakdown in price. If the Cup and Saucer pattern does hold up and continue as expected, then the next target would be to retest and break the resistance that has mounted at $3.65. Once this resistance breaks, then a continuation of the rally would put XRP back on the path toward new all-time highs above $3.8. Bullish Developments Spark Hope Not only are the charts showing bullish momentum for the XRP price, but other market developments have also put the altcoin on a positive path. The latest of these is the SEC approval of the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund earlier in the week, which includes XRP as one of the cryptocurrencies held by the fund. Although the SEC eventually stayed the decision and is now under review. This comes just a week after the first XRP ETF was approved for trading by the regulator last week, paving a way for more institutional investors to have access to the altcoin. Grayscale has also applied to convert its Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund LLC, which also includes XRP, into an ETF, and is awaiting approval from the SEC as well.

The Bitcoin short-term holder balance has often shown shifts near market tops and bottoms. Here’s what the metric’s trend is signaling right now. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Balance Hasn’t Seen Any Major Shifts Recently In a new post on X, institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock) has shared a chart that shows how the holdings of the different Bitcoin investor groups has changed over the years. The cohorts in question have been divided on the basis of holding time. The analytics firm classifies investors into three groups: traders, cruisers, and hodlers. The traders include the holders who have been carrying their coins for less than a month. This group corresponds to the new entrants in the sector and the investors who participate in high frequency trades. The cruisers are investors who are no longer that short-term minded, but they also haven’t built up enough resilience to be in it for the long-term yet. Cruisers who manage to hold past the one year mark become part of the diamond hands of the network: the hodlers. Now, below is the chart for the net change in the supply held by these three Bitcoin groups. As displayed in the above graph, these cohorts have historically shown a certain pattern near inflection points in the asset. “Fluctuations in short-term holder balances often signal market turning points,” notes the analytics firm. During major tops and bottoms, the traders generally register a sharp spike in their balance, as cruisers and hodlers take part in profit realization or capitulation. Whenever these older groups sell, the age of their coins resets back to zero and they are put into the supply of the traders. From the chart, it’s apparent that while Bitcoin has observed a sharp rally to new all-time highs (ATHs) recently, there still hasn’t been any big changes in the supplies of the traders. “Interestingly, we’re not seeing major shifts at the moment,” says Sentora. It now remains to be seen whether this means that the current rally still has room to grow. In some other news, the cryptocurrency has seen an uptick in on-chain transaction activity, as the analytics firm has pointed out in another X post. The weekly Bitcoin transaction volume reached almost $700 billion last week, the highest level since 2022. Though, while this does indicate activity is as high as it’s ever been in this cycle, it’s still muted when compared to the highs of the 2021 bull run. BTC Price Bitcoin is still stuck in sideways movement as its price is trading around $119,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the cusp of another rally, as leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance saw its spot volume rise from around 40% on July 15 to as high as 60% on July 18. Historical data suggests that surges in Binance’s spot market share have frequently preceded upward movements in BTC’s price. Bitcoin Rally Imminent? Binance Data Suggests So According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Amr Taha, Binance’s spot volume market share surging to 58% on July 23, has further strengthened the premier cryptocurrency’s $117,000 support. This marks the second notable spike in Binance’s spot market dominance this month. On July 18, Binance’s share surged to 60%, coinciding with Bitcoin holding above the critical $117,000 mark on the daily chart. Since then, the $117,000 level has served as a reliable support zone, likely buoyed by Binance’s deep liquidity and high execution reliability. Price stability at this level has been observed multiple times since the initial breakout. In addition to this, Bitcoin’s price has shown strong resilience around the Realized Price of the 1-day to 1-week Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Age Band, which is currently near $118,300. For context, UTXO age bands classify Bitcoin held in wallets based on how long it has remained unspent, offering insight into investor behavior. Shorter bands – 1 day to 1 week – typically reflect activity by newer or speculative holders, while longer bands – 6 months to 5 years – are associated with long-term holders with stronger conviction. Taha explained: Historically, this metric acts as a dynamic support level, indicating that newer holders are not capitulating and that the average on-chain cost basis of recent buyers is being respected by the market. Meanwhile, fellow crypto analyst Titan of Crypto took to X to highlight BTC following the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. In an X post, the analyst shared the following weekly chart, adding that BTC is on track to hit a target of $144,000. Will BTC Hit $180,000 By Year End? Bitcoin’s recent all-time high (ATH) of $123,218 has reignited speculation around even higher price targets before year’s end. According to CryptoQuant analyst Chairman Lee, BTC remains on track to reach $180,000 by the end of 2025. Recent on-chain metrics support this bullish outlook. Notably, the Bitcoin IFP indicator suggests that major holders continue to hold BTC despite its proximity to record highs – unlike in previous cycles, where exchange inflows typically preceded significant corrections. However, not all indicators point upward. Exchange reserves recently reached their highest levels since June 25, raising concerns about potential sell pressure. At press time, BTC is trading at $119,097, up 0.6% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin continues to trade below its record high set earlier this month, hovering above the $119,000 mark. While price action over the past week has shown only a modest 0.3% gain, analysts suggest the market may be nearing a turning point. The sideways movement in price has not deterred the broader bullish outlook, but on-chain indicators now suggest caution may be warranted. One such indicator comes from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributor Arab Chain, who flagged potential overheating in Bitcoin’s current market structure. Bitcoin Bullish Trend Persists, but Signs Point to Caution In a recent post, the analyst highlighted the behavior of the Bull and Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which now sits in a zone typically associated with strong bullish trends. However, its proximity to the so-called “overheated bull” range has raised concerns about a possible correction on the horizon. The indicator’s historical pattern suggests this zone often precedes a price cooldown, leading investors to consider profit-taking strategies. Arab Chain noted that despite the bullish structure, the indicator’s advance toward overheated territory could prompt speculators to close positions. “The proximity of overheated zones suggests that this is not the right time for a major purchase,” the analyst explained. The insight reflects the broader sentiment that market participants may opt for a wait-and-see approach, anticipating a more favorable re-entry after a correction. Additionally, while the 30-day to 365-day moving averages still support a continued uptrend, they may also signal that a short-term top is forming unless disrupted by new market catalysts. Retail Interest Remains Muted as Institutional Demand Grows Supporting this view, another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, emphasized the role of institutional activity in driving the current cycle. Kesmeci explained that retail investors have reduced their exposure to Bitcoin since early 2023, while large investors have increased their holdings, particularly from early 2024 onward. “This time, the source of the Bitcoin rally is not retail — the big players are in the driver’s seat,” he wrote. This accumulation by high-volume wallets, likely linked to institutions or ETFs, highlights a shift from previous cycles dominated by retail behavior. Kesmeci further pointed to Google Trends data showing that search interest in “Bitcoin” remains subdued compared to previous bull runs. The absence of widespread retail excitement contrasts with the intense public engagement seen during Bitcoin’s surge in 2021. According to Kesmeci, the quiet phase may indicate that retail has not yet entered the market en masse — a stage that historically signals the final leg of a bull cycle. “The crowd has not awakened yet,” he noted, adding that “smart money is currently on stage — and most people are still watching from the sidelines.” Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun has made the headlines again after its recently launched token, PUMP, plummeted to new lows. The nosedive follows a recent update on the token’s highly anticipated airdrop and its legal troubles. PUMP Token Loses $1 Billion MC Just over a week after launch, Pump.fun’s official token has hit a new all-time low (ATL), reaching the $0.0028 area and dropping below the $1 billion market capitalization for the first time since its initial Coin Offering (ICO). Pump.fun was launched in January 2024 to facilitate and simplify the deployment of tokens. The Solana-based platform quickly became the leading memecoin launchpad in the crypto market, fueling this cycle’s memecoin frenzy. According to Dune data, the launchpad has deployed nearly 12 million tokens over the last 18 months and generated a Total Revenue of over $775 million. After announcing its official token in early June, the platform’s PUMP rollout had a bumpy road, as its official X account was suspended mid-month. The token’s public sale was also pushed nearly three weeks from its original June 25 date. Nonetheless, Pump.fun recorded a highly successful sale two weeks ago, raising $600 million in just 12 minutes. Two days after its launch, PUMP surged around 70% from its ICO price, reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $0.0068 on July 16. Since then, investors have seen a 57.9% price drop, with 25% of its decline occurring in the past 24 hours. The violent correction has been partially fueled by the recent update of PUMP’s upcoming airdrop. In the token announcement, Pump.fun stated that an airdrop was “coming soon,” but didn’t offer further details. On Wednesday night, the platform’s co-founder, Alon Cohen, confirmed that there will be a token airdrop but revealed it “is not going to take place in the near future,” which ignited massive backlash from the community and sent the token into its current nosedive. Community Slams Pump.fun Team Several X users have expressed their concerns and discontent with Pump.fun’s team, with some claiming that it is “easily one of the worst charts out right now” as “PUMP is trading like the devs already gave up.” Another user stated that “the way PUMP is performing post-TGE is 100% on the team. Only in crypto you can sell a ‘utility coin’ for $1.3B in cash and a week later no one still has a clue what those utilities even are lol.” Some community members remain hopeful that the cryptocurrency will reverse. Market watcher Bren Trades considers that “The crowd is grave dancing on PUMP. Just like they did with PENGU And we saw how that played out.” He noted that “If you’ve been here for a while, you know these post-launch dump outs are commonplace.” Meanwhile, crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa wrote on X that “joking aside, I actually do think that PUMP bottoms relatively soon. I am expecting some sort of giga crime pump eventually.” Legal Drama Intensifies In January, Burwick Law filed a class-action lawsuit against the platform, alleging it acted as an unregistered securities exchange. According to the original complaint, users have suffered massive losses due to their tokens’ price plunging after the hype died down. On Wednesday, the law firm filed an amended lawsuit in the Southern District of New York against the platform and some of its Solana partners, including Solana Labs, the Solana Foundation, Jito Labs, and the Jito Foundation. The new complaint escalates the extent of the allegations, claiming that the defendants have extracted over $5.5 billion from customers through schemes, and seeking rescission of Pump.fun transactions and compensatory damages. As of this writing, PUMP is trading at $0.0028, a 26.6% decline in the daily timeframe.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below the $120,000 mark, exhibiting restrained momentum despite previous rallies that pushed it to all-time highs above $123,000. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has fluctuated between a low of $117,422 and a high of $119,197, ultimately trading at $118,578 at the time of writing. While price movement has remained relatively stable, on-chain indicators suggest that broader market sentiment is still in a transitional phase, with neither excessive enthusiasm nor panic selling present among investors. Bitcoin Market Signals Suggest Ongoing Expansion Phase A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlights a key development in the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI), a composite tool used to track phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle. According to Gaah, the IBCI has returned to the “Distribution” zone, an area historically associated with the late stages of a bull market. However, this return is moderate, as the index has reached only 80% of the zone’s upper boundary, falling short of the full saturation levels typically observed at major market peaks. The IBCI’s moderate level indicates that Bitcoin is in an expansionary stage, but without the typical signs of overheating. Gaah noted that two critical components of the IBCI, the Puell Multiple and the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), remain below their midpoint levels. This suggests that short-term speculation and aggressive profit-taking, often seen in late-stage bull markets, have not yet fully emerged in the current cycle. As a result, while caution may be warranted, the broader trend does not yet resemble a typical market top. The Puell Multiple, in particular, continues to hover near the “Discount” range, indicating that miner profitability remains moderate even with Bitcoin’s recent all-time high. This points to a valuation structure where network participants have not yet entered the excess phase that typically precedes a market correction. Gaah emphasized that the current state of the IBCI reflects underlying market strength supported by fundamentals, not speculative fervor. However, he also warned that the market is in a high-risk correction zone in the short term and should be monitored closely for shifts in retail behavior and miner activity. Short-Term Holders Offer Support Around Realized Price Adding to the discussion, another CryptoQuant analyst, Amr Taha, observed that Bitcoin has maintained price stability near the realized price of the UTXO Age Band for 1-day to 1-week holders, currently around $118,300. This metric is often interpreted as a dynamic support level that reflects the average cost basis for recent buyers. According to Taha, the absence of capitulation among newer holders implies that recent market entrants remain confident, reinforcing the current price range as a psychological and technical support zone. Together, these insights suggest that while Bitcoin may face near-term volatility, broader indicators do not yet reflect an overheated market. Instead, current metrics imply a market that continues to expand at a measured pace, with room for potential upside if fundamentals remain intact. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Jack Mallers, founder of Strike, argued in a video shared on X that a structurally higher Bitcoin price is emerging as a necessary component of US fiscal management, linking the growth of stablecoins to demand for US government debt. Framing the newly introduced GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation as “a seminal moment for digital assets and global dollar dominance,” Mallers said that while the bill “has nothing to do with Bitcoin directly,” it is indirectly significant because stablecoin expansion and Bitcoin appreciation are, in his view, intertwined. Bitcoin And Gold Must Rise To Avert US Fiscal Crisis Displaying a chart of Tether’s market capitalization alongside Bitcoin’s price, Mallers told viewers: “In the green, what you’re looking at is Tether, Market Cap. And in the orange, what you’re looking at is Bitcoin… The currency pair that does the most volume against this asset class is USDT, is Tether… If you want stablecoins to grow, Bitcoin grows.” He then connected that relationship to federal financing: stablecoin issuers, especially Tether, hold large amounts of US Treasuries; therefore, a larger stablecoin float would translate into incremental structural demand for US debt. Mallers described the United States as fiscally “trapped,” asserting: “We know that the US cannot raise rates and they cannot cut spending. So we are trapped. The next logical step is we then need to devalue the dollar. It’s the only way out.” The policy question, he continued, is what assets the dollar should be allowed to depreciate against. “Do not debase the dollar against housing… Don’t debase the dollar against eggs… My recommendation, debase it against Bitcoin and gold.” Projecting a scenario in which Bitcoin reaches $500,000—“That’s 5x from here”—Mallers claimed such a move would force stablecoin capitalization to “5x,” producing “five times the amount of demand for US debt” at a moment when, he said, traditional foreign and domestic buyers are fatigued: “China doesn’t want your debt… Hedge funds don’t want your debt. Who’s the buyer of last resort? The Fed.” He likened the prospective alignment of Treasury financing needs, Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion, and stablecoin reserve composition to a previous historical episode: “The last time the Fed and the US government got married… was to help finance around the world wars. And the Fed’s balance sheet grew 10 times… largely in… T-bills, the things that stablecoins buy.” With US debt-to-GDP “at 130%,” Mallers argued, reduction in real terms requires monetary debasement channeled into politically acceptable asset inflation. He extended the narrative into politics, highlighting that “The president and his family just bought $2 billion worth of Bitcoin” and policy moves such as opening “US retirement market to crypto investments.” According to Mallers, positioning Bitcoin and gold inside retirement accounts will allow policymakers to “debase the dollar and get reelected,” because Bitcoin holders would not resist the erosion of purchasing power: “Debase the dollar all you want… I don’t care because I own Bitcoin.” He concluded by restating the mechanism he sees emerging from the bill: “Stablecoins are the new way to finance the government, but they grow as Bitcoin grows. One way to grow stablecoins is to grow Bitcoin… One way to solve the Fed and the Treasury’s problem of getting remarried is to grow Bitcoin. It could not be more obvious.” At press time, BTC traded at $118,055.