US Stocks remain on edge: Why the market is struggling for direction

The week has started with wiggly trading, leaving traders firmly on the fence when it comes to risk-sentiment.

Despite the broader market indecision, a few specific names are holding the major indices together, notably Alphabet (Google), which trades higher by 4% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.3 billion stake in the company.

Names like Tesla and the semiconductor giant Micron (MU) are also providing support. However, most stocks are trading close to unchanged or slightly in the red at the open.

Investors remain anxious over the path of AI investment. The massive capital expenditure required for large AI projects was initially easier to fund when the market was pricing in lower rates.

However, recent hawkishness from Fed officials signaling that they are unlikely to cut rates again this year has cast a shadow over the sector. This has intensified scrutiny over already stretched tech valuations.

Markets are expected to get at least some clarity soon, with public US data expected to resume promptly.

Crucially, the BLS has announced they will publish the September NFP report on Thursday, November 20th.

While the chance of a rate cut remains uncertain (currently around 40%), a clear signal of a more restricted labor market could be the key decision-maker for the Fed. Everything will now depend on the incoming data.

In any case, traders can rejoice of such volatility which provides opportunity on both the buy and sell side – Take a look at the VIX where spikes have become more frequent and has actually formed some upward sloping trends.

Let's dive right into the intraday outlook for all three US Major indices: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

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Even after a rough weekly open, the Dow is resilient around the 47,000 level, key for upcoming momentum.

With many up and down dojis between the mini support (46,800 to 47,000) and resistance (47,200) zones since Friday, price action is consolidating sharply.

Essential to continue heading higher after overbought levels, bulls can rejoice that the pullback hasn't extended (yet), which would yield a more bearish short-term outlook.

Watch for breakouts and session closes above/below the consolidation which should surely see continuation.

Dow Jones technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time high 48,459
• Resistance zone 47,500 - 47,650 and 4H MA 50
• mini-resistance 47,200
• Psychological resistance at 48,000

Support Levels

• Higher timeframe pivot 47,000 to 47,200 (immediate test)
• mini-support 46,800 to 46,900
• 46,380 trendline and MA 200
• 45,000 psychological level
• 44,400 to 44,500

Nasdaq led to the downside in the past few weeks, now trading below its key intraday moving averages and still within its corrective channel.

However, one interesting technical development has formed a pattern that should help to guide traders looking forward.

A double bottom was reached on Friday at the 24,500 support. But as anything in trading, its effect will be contingent on continuation.

After such a formation, bulls will want to see strong upward candles to retake the hand.

Failing to make progress higher could mean that buyers are getting exhausted and could prompt further rangebound action.

A break below the Friday lows (24,551) would on the other hand imply further downside.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
• Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850
• Mini-resistance at 25,500 Gap
• Current Pivot 25,050 to 25,200 (immediate resistance and Moving Averages)

Support Levels

• 24,879 session lows
• 24,500 Main support
• October lows 23,997
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is holding similar conditions as the Nasdaq, but as typical, with less volatility/ more rangebound characteristics.

Holding below the Pivot Zone and Key MAs, bulls still have to do more work if they want to reach new records.

Also showing a double bottom, expectations for continuation will be high after the Friday bounce. Failing to continue higher may trigger continued profit-taking – Keep an eye on the 6,750 level for session closes.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 6,930 (current All Time-Highs)
• ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930
• 6,800 Psychological resistance
• Mid-term resistance 6,860 to 6,880
• Pivot and MA 200 6,720 to 6,750 (testing immediate)

Support Levels

• 6,647 session lows
• 6,680 to 6,700 support recent bounce
• 6,570 to 6,600 Key support
• 6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (4H MA 200 Confluence)

Safe Trades!

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