USD/JPY: Potential minor top at 155.30, USD at risk of bearish reversal towards 154.20/153.65

[Ben Graham]

Key takeaways

• The Japanese yen has been the weakest major currency over the past month, with USD/JPY climbing nearly 3%—outpacing the US Dollar Index’s 0.9% gain—amid political pressure for looser monetary policy.
• USD/JPY’s surge above 155.00 has heightened FX-intervention risk, prompting verbal warnings from Japan’s Finance Minister over rapid, one-sided yen depreciation.
• A high-stakes meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and Prime Minister Takaichi later today could trigger short-term volatility, with technical signals pointing to rising odds of a minor bearish reversal unless USD/JPY breaks above 155.30.

In the past month (based on a rolling basis), the Japanese yen has been the weakest major currency against the US dollar. The USD/JPY rose by almost 3% as of Tuesday, 18 November 2025, at the time of writing, surpassing the 0.9% return seen in the US Dollar Index over the same period (see Fig. 1).

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Fig. 1: 1-month rolling performances of major currencies against the US dollar as of 18 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The current bout of weakness seen in the Japanese yen has been attributed to political jawboning by the new Japanese Prime Minister, Takaichi’s penchant for an accommodating monetary policy to drive economic growth, going against the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s current monetary policy stance of gradually rising interest rates as inflation trend in Japan has stablished above BoJ’s 2% long-term target.

FX intervention risk has increased with BoJ Ueda-PM Takaichi meeting on the horizon

The USD/JPY has surged past the 155.00 psychology level on Monday, 17 November, from the 7 November 2025 low of 152.82, and it continued to trade higher in today’s Asia session, 18 November, as it printed an intraday high of 155.38 to record a 10-month high.

The sharp rise in USD/JPY has triggered a verbal warning from Finance Minister Katayama, who reiterated concerns over rapid, one-sided yen moves in the FX market.

Separately, a closely watched meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and Prime Minister Takaichi is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. local time. Any post-meeting comments related to monetary policy could spark meaningful short-term volatility in USD/JPY.

Let’s now outline the short-term trajectory for USD/JPY over the next 1 to 3 days, along with the key technical elements and levels to monitor.

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Minor bearish reversal below 155.30

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Fig. 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 18 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Bearish bias with 155.30 as key short-term pivotal resistance for the USD/JPY. A break below 154.75 may expose near-term weakness towards the next intermediate supports at 154.20 and 153.65 (also the 20-day moving average) (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• The minor uptrend phase of USD/JPY from its 29 October 2025 low of 151.89 to Tuesday, 18 November 2025, intraday high of 155.38 may have reached a terminal exhaustion point, as price action has hit the upper boundary of the bearish “Ascending Wedge” configuration.
• In conjunction, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has traced out a bearish divergence before exiting its overbought region on Tuesday, 18 November 2025, during the Asia session.
• These observations suggest that short-term upside momentum has started to wane, which increases the odds of a minor bearish reversal on the USD/JPY.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

However, a clearance above 155.30 key resistance invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 155.80/155.95 and 156.50/156.70.

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