WTI. Price Analysis. Forecast. The Oil Market Balances Between Opposing Forces

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remains under pressure, trading above the round $59.00 level. The market feels this pressure as participants assess mixed indicators regarding U.S. inventories and acknowledge rising geopolitical risks associated with potential sanctions against leading Russian oil producers.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels for the week ending November 14, after a build of 1.3 million barrels the previous week. This news initially intensified bearish sentiment, confirming the view that domestic oil supplies exceeded seasonal averages.

However, an earlier report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on the same day showed a contrary picture. Official data indicated a reduction in inventories by 3.426 million barrels instead of the expected decline of 1.9 million barrels, following a significant increase of 6.413 million barrels the week prior. This discrepancy helped limit further pressure on WTI oil prices, as traders view EIA reports as a more reliable indicator of the underlying market balance.

In addition to inventory dynamics, geopolitical events continue to affect the market. The U.S. is preparing to impose sanctions on Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" starting Friday. The U.S. Treasury Department noted that measures introduced in October are already impacting Russia's oil sales revenues and are expected to lead to a reduction in export volumes over time. Such signs of geopolitical tension support oil prices by constraining global supply.

Overall, the WTI oil market balances between opposing forces. On one hand is the increase in inventories according to API data and the reluctance of buyers to take risks, putting downward pressure on prices; on the other hand, a sharp decline in quotes based on EIA data and the impending sanctions against Russia help to soften the drop, keeping quotes around the round level of $59.00.

From a technical perspective, the decline in prices on the four-hour chart below the 100 and 200-SMA favors the bears. However, it is worth noting that the oscillators on this same chart are mixed, which requires caution from traders who are positioned to believe that the decline is over. On the daily chart, oscillators have moved into negative territory, confirming a pessimistic forecast. Nevertheless, price support is at the round level of $59.00, below which there is also support at $58.75 on the way to the round level of $58.00. If these levels do not hold, prices may need to return to the October lows around the $56.00 round level.