Gold (XAU/USD) Price Up 2.5% for the Week. Is a Break of $4200/oz a Certainty?
BY
Ben Graham
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Gold prices are currently maintaining a robust uptrend and trading near two-week highs, around the $4150/oz handle. The precious metal is poised to log its fourth consecutive monthly gain, building on a record-setting surge experienced in October that briefly targeted the $4,400 area.
The continuation of the bullish rally could be a sign that the current rally still has deep support. The bullish trend is reinforced by technical indicators that confirm strong underlying momentum, following a selloff that allowed some profit taking.
Foundational Drivers: The Federal Reserve Pivot Proxy
The current rally and supporting Gold’s valuation is the aggressive market expectation of impending monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Current forecasts indicate an 84% probability of a US interest rate cut in December , with broader market consensus pricing in approximately 90 basis points of easing by the end of 2026.
Market participants are expecting the FED to start cutting rates despite mixed rhetoric. The expectations do keep the US Dollar (USD) under broad pressure and force US Treasury yields to drift lower. Gold is a beneficiary in this environment as declining real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
These easing expectations are validated by a sequence of disappointing US economic releases, including softer ADP employment numbers, weaker Retail Sales figures, and a notable drop in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading for November. Market participants are continuing a recent trend by actively front-running the central bank’s mandated reaction function.
Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD)
Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is strong.
Price action looks favorable with the RSI above 50, a sign of the bullish momentum.
Price continues to trade some way away from both the 50 and 100-day MA. This could lead to a short-term pullback at some stage.
Given the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US tomorrow, markets could see lower levels of liquidity. This could keep Gold prices rangebound as well.
Keep a close watch on Ukraine-Russia developments. Any sign that a deal may be edging close could lead to increased selling pressure on Gold and thus push Gold prices lower.
Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, November 26, 2025
Gold: Key Near-Term Technical Levels
As mentioned above, bulls may struggle to break beyond the $4200/ounce heading into the weekend as liquidity is expected to be thin. This is not to say it is not a possibility.
Key levels to pay attention to include
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