U.S. Mortgage Requests Reach Up to 2 Years – A Sign of Economic Resilience That Complicates the Life of the EDF

Igor Pereira · November 27, 2025

While many analysts focus on the deterioration of the labour market, a crucial sector of the American economy has just sent a signal of unexpected force. The data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) show that Foreclosure requests for U.S. real estate purchase have skyrocketed to the highest level in two years.

By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

This is not a given that fits easily in the narrative of "imminent recession". On the contrary, it suggests that there is a significant repressed demand ready to be released at the lowest sign of relief in interest rates.

1. The Repressed Demand Awakens: The Graph Speaks

The MBA Purchase Index chart shows a clear break in the downward and stagnation trend that dominated the last two years.

The Trigger: What caused this sudden increase? It is very likely that the recent fall in incomes of Treasures (precipitating EDF cuts) has translated into slightly lower mortgage rates or at least in the perception that the peak rates have fallen behind.
Psychology: Buyers who were "sitting on the fence," waiting for an opportunity, saw a window and acted. This shows that the desire to buy one’s own house is still strong, despite high prices.

2. The EDF Nightmare: Housing is Inflationary

For the Federal Reserve, this data is a two-edged knife:

The Good Side: It shows that the economy is not falling on a cliff. The "soft landing" still seems possible if the real estate sector (a large part of GDP) stabilizes.
The Bad Side (and most important): A heated real estate market is inherently inflationary. The housing costs (rent and equivalent rental of the owner) are the heaviest and "stickiest" component of inflation rates (CPI/PCE). If demand for homes rises again, house prices and rents will have difficulty falling, keeping overall inflation high.

My Analysis (Igor Pereira): This fact makes the work of the EDF much more difficult. If they cut the interest very aggressively now, they run the risk of throwing gasoline at the real estate market bonfire, rekindling the inflation they've fought so hard to control. This suggests that the EDF will have to be more cautious and slow in interest cuts what the future market is currently pricing.

Conclusion of Igor Pereira: Market Implications

Dollar (USD): This data is positive for the dollar in the short/medium term. A more resilient economy and a EDF that cannot cut interest aggressively due to the inflationary risk of housing bear the American currency.
Titles (Treasuries): It can put selling pressure on securities (increasing income), as the market reassesss the speed of EDF cuts.
Gold/silver: It can generate short-term counterwinds if the market puts a "less dovish" EDF. However, the long-term structural thesis (tax debt) remains intact.

The American real estate market proved today that it's not dead. He's just hibernating, waiting for lower interest. The EDF knows this and will have to act with extreme care.

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