OPEC+: What to Expect from the Upcoming Meeting

[Ben Graham]

• OPEC+ meets this Sunday, with no major policy shifts expected.
• Oil prices remain driven by speculation about a possible Ukraine ceasefire.
• Iraq’s overproduction raises internal tensions and calls for a higher quota.
• A minor technical adjustment to Iraq’s allocation is the most likely outcome.

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Chart of Brent crude oil prices (CFD contract), daily data, source: TradingView

Expectations for OPEC+ and the State of the Oil Market

With the next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this coming Sunday, the gathering is not expected to produce any major shifts in the group’s production strategy. Output limits remain locked in place through the end of 2026, and the eight countries that implemented voluntary production cuts have already confirmed that they will not increase production in the first quarter. This effectively limits the scope of the meeting to minor technical adjustments rather than meaningful policy changes. As a result, short-term operational strategy remains outside the agenda, reinforcing the view that the alliance intends to maintain continuity rather than surprise the market.

Geopolitical Factors and Their Impact on Oil Prices

Oil prices continue to be shaped largely by geopolitical speculation, particularly regarding the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The rising probability of such an outcome has exerted downward pressure on crude prices, as a ceasefire would reduce the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure and could pave the way for partial or even full easing of sanctions. Still, the prospects for a near-term, credible peace agreement remain limited. Consequently, Brent prices have stabilized in the middle of the range seen since early October. The market’s lack of strong upward momentum also reflects the expectation that OPEC+ will avoid taking any breakthrough decisions during Sunday’s meeting.

Internal Tensions within OPEC+: The Case of Iraq

Although sweeping strategic changes remain unlikely, several internal issues require coordination. The International Energy Agency highlights that some member countries continue to produce well above their assigned quotas, with Iraq being the most notable case. The resumption of northern pipeline exports and growing production capabilities have strengthened Iraq’s case for a higher quota—similar to the adjustment granted to the United Arab Emirates last year. However, such changes must be carefully calibrated. Over-constraining certain members risks prompting withdrawals from the organization, as seen with Angola’s departure two years ago.

Outlook and a Potential Compromise

In this context, OPEC+ may opt for a moderate adjustment to Iraq’s production quota as a way to maintain unity within the group. The alliance must strike a balance between enforcing production discipline and preserving internal solidarity. While a change of this nature would be more symbolic than market-moving, it could help ensure long-term cohesion. Overall, Sunday’s meeting is likely to reaffirm OPEC+’s preference for incremental fine-tuning rather than major strategic pivots, underscoring its focus on internal relationship management rather than aggressive intervention in global oil supply.

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