GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The GBP/JPY pair has attracted some intraday sellers after rising during the Asian session to resistance at 207.20 — a new high since July 2024. However, the decline does not look bearish: current prices remain above support at 206.40 and have been showing an upward trend for the third week in a row.

This morning, Tokyo inflation data was released, showing that inflation remains high. This confirms that the Bank of Japan may raise rates in December. Moreover, investors should remain alert amid speculation that Japanese authorities are ready to intervene to stop the yen's decline. All of this supports the Japanese currency and restrains the growth of the GBP/JPY pair.

On the other hand, the pound is currently struggling to attract buyers. Expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England next month limit the pair's growth. This sharply contrasts with the Bank of Japan's willingness to raise rates. However, the situation surrounding the U.K. budget has become clearer: the risk has been removed, and the economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward, which may prevent a sharp fall in the British pound.

The U.K. Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts economic growth of 1.5% this year, higher than the previous estimate of 1%. U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves stated that the government has exceeded this year's growth forecast and added that it will surpass it again.

Concerns about Japan's debt situation and global market risks may also affect the Japanese yen by limiting its growth. All of this calls for caution when trying to determine whether the GBP/JPY pair has reached its peak.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive but close to the overbought zone, which confirms a corrective movement.

The nearest support is at 206.40, and resistance is at the monthly high of 207.20. If prices fail to hold this support, the decline may accelerate toward the round level of 206.00, and then toward 205.30, gradually shifting momentum in favor of the bears.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com