Why XRP Will Not Reach $100 By End Of Year Despite ETF Launch

[Ben Graham]

Interest in XRP has increased massively after the launch of Spot XRP ETFs, leading some supporters to float a $100 per token rally before the end of the year. That scenario, however, appears highly unrealistic when basic market fundamentals are considered. 

In a recent post on X, Zach Humphries dismissed triple-digit predictions, calling them “delusional” and warning that they mislead people who don’t grasp the math behind market valuation.

The Market Cap Reality Check

Any attempt to peg XRP at $100 must first contend with its circulating supply and the resulting total valuation that such a price implies. According to Humphries, pushing XRP to $100 would demand a market capitalization of about $6 trillion for the cryptocurrency. That figure amounts to a more than 40-fold increase over current market cap levels, a leap so vast it would require inflows that dwarf anything seen in the crypto industry to date.

The entire crypto market itself has a total capitalization of about $3 trillion. Pushing a single altcoin like XRP to $6 trillion in value would mean the coin alone becomes more than twice as large as the entire crypto market combined. 

XRP reaching $100 is a 4,445% increase from its current price level. Keeping this in mind, it is really unrealistic for XRP to reach $100 even in the next year alone. Therefore, those making claims that the asset can touch $100 before 2025 ends, with only one month left on the calendar, disregard how capital moves, how long accumulation cycles take, and how much work is involved in building market caps of this size. 

The recent emergence of XRP ETFs does offer improved access for institutional and retail investors. However, the expansion needed for XRP to reach $100 is so large that no ETF launch or last-minute rally could generate the necessary inflows or supply shock within the next 35 days.

Long-Term Potential Still Exists

Although the $100 target within the next few weeks appears unattainable, that does not necessarily diminish the long-term appeal of XRP. Enthusiasts who see effects from adoption, regulatory developments, and institutional inflows may still believe in significant upside over a multi-year timeframe. Zach Humpries, for one, noted that he is still very bullish on Ripple/XRP long-term.

The purpose of Humphries’ warning message was to restore perspective, not dampen long-term bullish sentiment. The important message is for XRP enthusiasts to shift their focus away from unrealistic valuations this year and instead consider targets that align with actual market cap growth. 

In a follow-up reply to comments on his post, he mentioned a far more grounded scenario of XRP reaching the $5 region by Christmas. However, this is also very bullish and is dependent on optimism returning to the wider crypto market.