EUR/USD Forecast on December 1, 2025

[Ben Graham]

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 1.1594 – 1.1607 level, experienced a slight decline, and returned to this zone. Today, the pair closed above it, allowing for expectations of further growth toward the next resistance level at 1.1645 – 1.1656. A rebound from this zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a minor decline, while a close above it would increase the probability of further growth toward the next 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not surpass the previous wave's peak, and the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend is still officially "bearish." Bulls have gone on the offensive, but their efforts are still insufficient to form a full trend. For the bearish trend to be considered over, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656.

On Friday, the news flow came only from Germany. Key reports on inflation and unemployment matched traders' expectations, while retail sales disappointed, falling by 0.3% versus forecasts of +0.2%. As a result, the euro faced short-term pressure, but the bears' attacks quickly faded. There was no further news in the second half of the day, allowing bulls to regain ground rapidly. This morning, manufacturing activity indices for Germany and the EU came out slightly below expectations, but this did not prevent the bulls from launching another attack. In my view, the bears have shown all they could in recent months; now it is the bulls' turn. As a result, negative news flow does not create major problems for the euro. I would also note that the U.S. dollar still has enough factors for continued long-term weakness.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after forming two "bullish" divergences on the CCI indicator. The pair has consolidated above the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1538, allowing traders to expect further growth toward the resistance level at 1.1649 – 1.1680. No new emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today. A rebound from the 1.1649 – 1.1680 level would favor the dollar and a minor decline.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 12,897 long positions and 2,857 short positions. COT reports began being released after the government "shutdown," but the data coming out are already outdated—covering October. The "Non-commercial" group sentiment remains bullish due to Donald Trump and has strengthened over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 243,000, while short positions are 135,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may create numerous long-term and structural challenges for the U.S. Despite several key trade agreements being signed, many crucial economic indicators are declining, and the dollar is losing its status as the "world reserve currency."

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and EU:

• EU – Germany Manufacturing PMI (08:55 UTC)
• EU – Manufacturing PMI (09:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Manufacturing PMI (14:45 UTC)
• U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI (15:00 UTC)

On December 1, the economic calendar contains four notable entries, with the ISM index standing out. The news impact on market sentiment on Monday will be moderate, mainly in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair today is possible on a rebound from the 1.1645 – 1.1656 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1594 – 1.1607. Buying can be opened on a close above the 1.1594 – 1.1607 level, targeting 1.1645 – 1.1656.

Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.1392 – 1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066 – 1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com