EUR/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

On Tuesday, the euro weakened against the Swiss franc. At the moment, the EUR/CHF pair is trading around 0.9330, slightly retreating from the upper boundary of its multi-day range, after spending most of the day with little change due to the neutral market reaction to the preliminary eurozone inflation data.

Recent eurozone statistics showed a mixed but relatively stable picture of price growth in November. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 2.2% year-over-year — slightly above analysts' expectations (2.1%) and unchanged from October. The core HICP increased by 2.4% year-over-year — a bit below the forecast of 2.5% and also unchanged from October.

On a monthly basis, the core HICP fell by 0.5% in November, offsetting the 0.3% increase recorded in October. The overall HICP declined by 0.3% in November, compared with a 0.2% rise in October.

These figures support the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to maintain its current policy, reinforcing market expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged, given inflation slightly above the 2% target.

Since the ECB is in no hurry to adjust its monetary policy, investors should pay attention to the upcoming ECB decision scheduled for December 18.

Supporting this view, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stated in an interview with Stern magazine on Tuesday that the eurozone has "almost reached" its inflation target and that the price level will continue to fluctuate around that mark in the coming months.

Despite this news, the EUR/CHF pair shows muted movement, indicating traders' caution ahead of Wednesday's Swiss inflation data release. Economists predict that Switzerland's consumer price index will fall by 0.1% month-over-month in November, following a 0.3% decline in October, while the annual figure is expected to remain at 0.1%.

These data will likely influence market expectations for the Swiss National Bank's forecast ahead of its next rate decision on December 11. Overall, analysts expect the rate to remain at 0%.

Recent comments by Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel confirmed that the likelihood of returning to negative interest rates remains high. Board member Petra Tschudin also noted that inflation is likely to rise slightly in the coming quarters.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, confirming a bullish bias. Prices are also above the 100-day SMA and attempting to break resistance at 0.9350; a breakout above this level would bring the 200-day SMA into focus. Below the 100-day SMA support, the pair will find additional support at the 9-day EMA, then at the 14-day EMA before the round level of 0.9300. A decline below the 20-day SMA would signal weakening momentum for the bulls.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com