Glencore cuts 2026 copper target but sets long-term surge

[Ben Graham]

Mining and commodities giant Glencore (LON: GLEN) plans to expand annual copper production to about 1.6 million tonnes by 2035 as it seeks to reverse a multi-year slump in output.

Chief executive Gary Nagle told investors in London that the company expects its base copper business to exceed 1 million tonnes a year by the end of 2028, positioning Glencore among the world’s five largest producers. 

The push comes as global miners race to increase supply, even as Glencore’s own copper output is set to fall for a fourth straight year and sit about 40% below 2018 levels.

The Swiss miner has faced pressure after its shares hit their lowest since 2020 and investors complained about repeated production cuts and operational underperformance. In response, Glencore has launched a sweeping operational review, which will see it cut about 1,000 jobs. It targets roughly $1 billion in recurring cost savings by the end of 2025, the miner announced at its first investor day in London in three years.

Copper prices hit a fresh record above $11,400 a tonne on Wednesday, extending a 30% gain this year on the back of supply disruptions and strong investor demand tied to electrification and the energy transition.

Eyes in South America

Despite outlining long-term growth plans, Glencore cut its 2026 copper guidance to 810,000–870,000 tonnes from a previous 930,000-tonne target after setbacks at Chile’s Collahuasi mine, which it jointly owns with Anglo American (LON: AAL). The company also lowered its zinc and cobalt forecasts for next year.

Taken from Glencore’s Capital Markets Day.

The Swiss firm reiterated that copper output should reach 1 million tonnes by 2028 and said the restart of its Alumbrera mine, in the Catamarca Province of Argentina, will support that ramp-up.

The operation is expected to restart in Q4 2026, with first production in the first half of 2028. Once fully operational, it is expected to produce about 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum over four years.

“These projects are mostly brownfield and expected to be highly capital efficient,” Nagle said. He added that Glencore would be looking for partnerships to “reduce financial and operations risks” in certain projects.

Glencore noted the restart offers strong stand-alone economics and serves as a natural enabler for the Minera Agua Rica–Alumbrera (MARA) project by reducing ramp-up risk for the concentrator and downstream logistics, maintaining and retraining the workforce ahead of first ore, and keeping critical infrastructure active for shared use, generating operational synergies.

The company has shut down several smelters in the past year and is planning further closures for two of its South African smelters at the start of 2026.