ANALISTA Igor Pereira Posted December 3, 2025 ANALISTA Report Share Posted December 3, 2025 We have just received a data that completely changes the US economic narrative. ADP's private employment report for November not only showed a slowdown; it showed a contraction. By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSEFor the first time in a long time, the US private sector Cut 32,000 jobs, challenging all growth expectations. The consensus of Wall Street (Dow Jones) expected a creation of +40,000 vacancies. The real result was a cold water bath of -32,000.. 1. Collapse Anatomy: Small Companies in the ICUTo understand gravity, we need to look where the blood is being spilled. The ADP report points out that Small businesses were the hardest hit.My Analysis (Igor Pereira):The Canary in Mina: Small businesses are the backbone of the American economy and the most sensitive to interest rates. If they are firing massively, it means that the cost of capital (high Fed interest) finally broke their ability to operate and expand. Trend Reversal: Leaving a high review in October (+47k) for a wave destruction in November (-32k) is not a statistical noise. It's a violent trend change.2. Immediate Impact: Dollar (USD)The market reacts instantly to the perception of future interest. Result: Negative for the USD.Logic: With the labor market contracting, the Federal Reserve loses any argument to maintain a hawkish or cautious posture. They will be forced to speed up the interest cuts to try to stop the bleeding of jobs. Lower interest = Weaker dollar. 3. Gold (XAU/USD): The Beneficiary of Economic DestructionAs long as the dollar suffers, gold shines. My Strategic Vision: This is the classic scenario of "Bad News is Good News" for Gold. Fear of Recession: Investors flee to security. Loss of Income: The expectation of interest cuts overthrows the yields of Treasures, making gold (which does not pay interest) more attractive. Policy Error: The market is beginning to stress that the Fed "tightened too much for too long" and will now have to print money to fix the damage. Today's ADP (-32k) data is the smoke signal before the official NFP (Payroll) fire. If government data confirms this tendency of contraction, the narrative of "economic resilience" will be buried. Fed has no choice. They'll have to cut, and cut fast. The liquidity cycle is being forced by economic pain. Get ready: The volatility in Gold and Silver will increase. With each bad data from the real economy, the thesis of precious metals is strengthened. Want to take your analysis to the institutional level?This analysis is just the tip of the iceberg. ExpertFX School Premium Members Receive daily insights, premium analysis in-depth and Direct access to our closed group on Telegram, where we discuss the market in real time. Don't operate on noise. Operate based on intelligence. Access your dashboard and become Premium now: https://expertfxschool.com/dashboard Visitante_cf084e92 1 1 Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Liked! × 💬 Did you like this content? Your feedback is very important! Liked! Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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