Ivanhoe sees 2026 Kakula copper output below 2024 level

[Ben Graham]

Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) said copper output next year at its Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo should lag 2024 levels even as efforts to rehabilitate the site gather pace following seismic-induced flooding.

Contained copper production will probably range between 380,000 and 420,000 tonnes in 2026, before increasing about 30% to 500,000-540,000 tonnes in 2027, Ivanhoe said Wednesday in a statement. The company also maintained its medium-term goal of producing about 550,000 tonnes annually.

“The revised guidance provides the market with long overdue clarity on the near- to medium-term outlook for the company,” Scotia Capital mining analyst Orest Wowkodaw said in a note to clients.

Seismic activity

Mining at the underground operation, which is part of the massive Kamoa-Kakula complex, was halted for about three weeks this spring after seismic activity in May caused flooding in the mine’s eastern section. Kamoa-Kakula produced 437,061 tonnes of copper concentrate in 2024, the last full year before the flood.

Ivanhoe shares gained 6.2% to C$15.27 Wednesday morning in Toronto, boosting the company’s market value to about C$22 billion ($15.8 billion).

Ivanhoe Q3 profits shrink on copper mine disruption

Dewatering of Kakula’s flooded areas is 70% complete in the mine’s western zone and 60% in the eastern zone, Ivanhoe said. Dewatering efforts on the western side should be completed by the end of January, the company added.

Rehabilitation

Some 13.4 km of underground workings have been rehabilitated so far. This included 4.6 km that have been dewatered, Ivanhoe said.

“Dewatering progress appears slower than expected,” Jefferies mining analyst Fahad Tariq said in a note to clients, calling the 60% figure for the eastern zone a “surprise.”

“Investors might pay more attention to the dewatering progress than the actual guidance numbers, as slower progress on the former results in lower confidence in the latter,” he wrote.

New concentrator

A fully revised life-of-mine plan remains on schedule for completion late in the first quarter, Ivanhoe said.

Management is considering a possible increase in mining rates to as many as 17 million tonnes per year. It will also evaluate a further expansion scenario that includes the construction of a new concentrator.

The updated life-of-mine plan will be “the next catalyst” for Ivanhoe, Tariq said.

About 6 million tonnes of ore are expected to be mined at Kakula next year. That number may rise to between 7 million and 8 million tonnes during 2027, Ivanhoe said. Copper grades are expected to range from 3.5% to 4.5% during the period.