ANALISTA Igor Pereira Posted December 4, 2025 ANALISTA Report Share Posted December 4, 2025 Imagine you went into a coma in 2007 and woke up in Tokyo today. You look at the title panel and see Japan's 10-year yield flashing 1.92%. You'd think the world was over. By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSEThat's the magnitude of what's happening right now. The paradigm of "Japan = Zero Rate", which anchored the global financial system for three decades, not only cracked; it exploded. The Chaos of Free-For-All: High Interest + Massive StimulationJapan is trying to perform an economic maneuver that defies logic: Pressing the Policy: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) retired the negative rates, raised the basic rate to 0.5% and is speaking openly in another rise before Christmas. Spending As Never: At the same time, the new Prime Minister signed a package of stimulus for the $135 billion – free money, tax cuts and checks for the population. My Analysis (Igor Pereira): That's the definition of tax dominance. The government spends, the central bank tries to control the resulting inflation by raising interest rates, and the securities market reacts with explosive incomes. It's an economic "circus" where the low-interest anchor was ripped off. The End of the Carry Trade and Global RepairIn 2019, incomes were -0.28%. People paid to lend to Japan. Today, with 1.92%, the scenario has changed radically. Yen Carry Trade: The "infinite money machine" that financed half the world's stupid ideas (taking yen to zero, investing in risk assets) is being silently dismantled. Wages and Inflation: Inflation refuses to die, and wages are rising. The deflation religion is over. The era of "Japan will borrow forever to zero and nothing bad will happen" is officially dead. The patient (the Japanese economy) "sitted in bed, pulled out the serum and asked for a cigarette". We're about to find out if he can walk or if he's gonna face down. For us global investors, this means that the Volatility will increase. Japan is no longer the stable anchor; it is a source of instability. The repatriation of Japanese capital (selling Treasures and global shares to buy high-income JGBs) is the number one risk that no one is pricing properly. Get ready. The bets are on the table. Want to take your analysis to the institutional level?This analysis is just the tip of the iceberg. ExpertFX School Premium Members Receive daily insights, premium analysis in-depth and Direct access to our closed group on Telegram, where we discuss the market in real time. Don't operate on noise. Operate based on intelligence. Access your dashboard and become Premium now: https://expertfxschool.com/dashboard Evandro 1 1 Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Liked! × 💬 Did you like this content? Your feedback is very important! Liked! Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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