XAU/USD technique Gold China Accumulate Dollars Before Storm, While Gold Tests "Selling Climatex" Zone – Complete Macro and Technique Analysis

[Igor Pereira]

Good morning, traders and members Premium.

In a movement that challenges the superficial narrative of dedollarization, capital flow reports indicate that the China state banks are buying American Dollar (USD) aggressively. To the inattentive observer, that sounds like a sign of dollar strength. For the institutional analyst, it's a Red alert.

By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

China is not buying dollars because it "likes" the currency; it is stockpiling liquidity to prepare for a currency event massive volatility And a potential exchange war.

The Macro Strategy: Ammunition for Commercial War

With the threat of 100% US tariffs on the horizon ("Commercial War 2.0"), Beijing anticipates turbulence for the Yuan (CNY). By accumulating dollars now, they are building a "liquidity mattress" to intervene in the market, defend their currency or honor obligations in case of credit freeze.

• Gold = Survival: China drains physical gold for long-term value.

• Dollar = Tactical: China accumulates dollars to maneuver the short-term storm.

• Conclusion: If China shields itself with both, the message is clear: "Something big is coming".

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WYCKOFF XAU/USD: Decrypting Volatility

While the macro scenario boils, the share of the price in gold (XAU/USD) in the 2H chart shows us exactly how this volatility manifests in the microstructure.

1. Top Structure and Selling Climax

The chart shows a clear distribution and correction structure:

• Top at $4263.46: The price reached a critical resistance zone, failing to keep high, which led to a rapid reversal.

• Selling Climax (a): The accelerated fall found a temporary fund, marked "Selling Climax". This is the point where the panic sale temporarily exhausted the offer, generating an automatic repeat.

• Low Trend Line: A clear downward trend line (red) is guiding the current correction, acting as dynamic resistance.

2. Key Levels for the Session

• Immediate Resistance (Order Block): The area between $4217.61 and $4223.64 It's an order block. The price tested this area and was rejected, confirming that the sellers are defending this level.

• Critical Support (FVG + Neckline): The price is currently testing a vital support zone:

  • Fair Value Gap (FVG): The area around $4193.22 represents a price inefficiency that is acting as support.

  • Neckline: Level of $4181.73 is the "neck line" of a larger structure. A break below this level would be extremely Bearish in the short term.

3. Scenarios and Triggers

• Lower Scenario (Continuation): If the price loses FVG support and breaks Neckline in $4181.73, the path opens for a deeper correction, possibly seeking liquidity at lower levels. The structure of descending tops and funds favors this bias while we are below the trend line.

• High Scenario (Reversion): For the bulls to regain control, we need to see a convincing breakup above the Order Block (4223.64) and the downward trend line. This would invalidate the immediate sales pressure and could lead the price back to the area of $4237 - $4244.

Technical Conclusion of Igor Pereira: Gold is in a tactical corrective phase (M15), pressed by making profits and macro volatility. Support defense in $4181 It's crucial. The short-term strategy favors sales in respiques for resistance, but with increased attention to absorption signals in the supports, given the macro explosive context.

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