Altcoins Struggle, But Technical Analysis Says A Major Opportunity Is Forming

[Ben Graham]

The latest market conditions have pushed hopes of an altcoin season even further out of reach. Bitcoin continues to dominate the market with a 59.6% share, and its recent struggle to hold bullish momentum has not translated into any meaningful boost for altcoins. 

Broader sentiment has weakened as well, with the CMC Altcoin Season Index registering just 20, which still places the entire market in a Bitcoin-favored phase. Meanwhile, a critical indication has been detected from on-chain data that suggests this may be a rare moment to accumulate strong altcoin positions before conditions eventually turn.

Altcoins Stay Subdued As Market Sentiment Worsens

Altcoin performance has really been lagging behind Bitcoin throughout this year, and the persistent weakness is now being reflected across multiple market indicators. Bitcoin’s dominance has only increased, meaning the capital rotation that typically sparks an altcoin season has yet to begin. 

The wait for an altcoin breakout has now stretched far longer than many anticipated. Even as the Bitcoin price is struggling, traders have not redirected liquidity toward altcoins. The leading cryptocurrency is now down by 28.9% from its October all-time high of $126,080. Instead, altcoins have also stayed muted, and their combined market cap shows no signs of outperforming the leading cryptocurrency. 

Data from CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index shows the reading is currently at 20. The low reading shows that altcoins are still losing ground relative to Bitcoin. To put this into context, the index was at a reading of 83 this time last year. 

The sentiment is also evident in CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index, which is now at 22. Readings this low signal hesitation across the market, as investors shy away from taking new positions, and this environment makes an altcoin season much harder to materialize.

CryptoQuant Data Signals A High-Value Accumulation Window

Technical analysis using data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that altcoin traders may be entering another window that has frequently been favorable for accumulation. The data compares the 30-day trading volume of altcoins against their yearly average and finds that current volumes have slipped back below that long-term line. 

Each time this pattern has appeared in past cycles, it marked a period when activity was unusually quiet and traders were hesitant, but it also tended to show up just before the market picked up again.

According to the analysis, this drop in volume can be called a “buying zone,” which is a phase where dollar-cost averaging into selective altcoins has often paid off over time. These low-volume stretches can last for weeks or even months, giving investors enough room to build their positions gradually.

The message from the data is that this calmer part of the cycle may offer one of the better chances to position ahead of the next broader market move.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView