XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

At the start of the new week, gold continues to show a modest intraday rise, although it is not displaying strong confidence, remaining within its weekly trading range. From a technical standpoint, the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been providing support for the precious metal since the beginning of this month. At the moment, the 200-hour EMA is located near $4190 and should become a key reference point for short-term traders. A decisive break below this level would trigger technical selling, making gold prices vulnerable to an accelerated decline toward the $4160–4163 level—the December monthly low—on the way to levels below the round $4100 level. If this round level is broken decisively, it will become a new trigger for the bears, opening the way to more significant losses.

On the other hand, the $4250–4260 level continues to serve as a strong barrier. A steady rise in prices beyond it would reach the next barrier in the $4270–4278 level, before gold attempts to reclaim the round $4300 level. New buying will become the key factor for XAU/USD growth, opening the path toward a resumption of the upward trend.

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