Volatility: Fed Releases Employment Data (JOLTS) Today at noon – The Interest Rate Destination Will Be Sealed Now

[Igor Pereira]

The financial market is now operating under maximum tension, awaiting the fact that it will serve as the "faithful balance" for tomorrow's monetary policy decision. The Federal Reserve will release the urgent numbers of Opening Jobs (JOLTS) today at 10:00 AM ET, which corresponds to the 12:00 PM (mid-day) in Brasilia time.

By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

Rarely does a secondary employment figure carry so much weight, but with the FOMC meeting starting tomorrow, this specific report has the power to change the likelihood of real-time interest cut. Institutional algorithms are already programmed to react violently to any deviation from consensus, as the health of the labour market is now the only barrier between an aggressive Fed and a cautious Fed.

The Decision Matrix: 50bps, 25bps or Nothing?

Market sensitivity to this report has created a dangerous binary pricing matrix. If the number of open vacancies comes under 7.2 million, the market will interpret this as a collapse in labour demand. That would force Powell's hand for an emergency cut from 50 basis points (0.50%), validating fear of recession and boosting protection assets like Gold and Securities. On the other hand, if the dice comes within the range of 7.2 to 7.3 million, the scenario of "Smooth Land" remains, consolidating the bet on a standard cut of 25 basis points (0.25%).

The Nightmare Scenario for the Bags

However, the asymmetric risk lies in the surprise of discharge. If the open spaces overcome 7.3 million, this will signal that the economy remains too heated and that wage inflation is still a threat. In this scenario, the probability of No interest cut tomorrow Shoot. This would be catastrophic for positions purchased at risk (the "bags" mentioned behind the scenes), causing an immediate re-enactment: the Dollar (DXY) would explode upwards and the stock and metal markets would suffer severe liquidation. At noon, Brasilia time, volatility will not be a noise; it will be the final voice of the market.

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