Vacancies Fire to 7,67 Millions, But the Voluntary Dismissal Rate (Quits) Collapse for 1.8% – The American Worker He's in Panic!

[Igor Pereira]

The October JOLTS data just painted a schizophrenic picture of the American economy, creating a dangerous trap for the Federal Reserve and for the inattentive investors. The headline is explosive: 7.67 million open spaces, destroying the consensus of 7.2 million and overcoming the review of September (7.658M).

By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

For the quick reading algorithms ("Headline Readers"), it screams "Strong Economy" and "Inflation". It's pure fuel for Fed Hawks to justify maintaining interest rates tomorrow.

The Dark Truth in the Details: No One Has Courage to Resign

However, institutional analysis requires looking at internal components, and they tell a story of fear and fragility:

• The Quits Rate (Resignations) It collapsed: Dropped from 2.0% to 1.8%.

  • The Reading of Igor Pereira: This is the most reliable indicator of worker confidence. When the economy is really strong, people resign to seek better wages. A rate of 1.8% is historically associated with periods of stress or pre-recession. The American worker is stuck in the chair, afraid of losing his job, because he knows he won't find another easily.

• Layoffs Rate (Demissions) Up: It slightly increased from 1.1% to 1.2%.

  • The firing trend is starting to turn up. The labor market is not only frozen; it is beginning to crack on the edges.

The Risk of Fed Policy Error Shoots

We now have a massive divergence:

1. Open Vacancies (Soft Data/Theoretical): Says the demand is insane.

2. Real Behavior (Hard Data/Human): Says trust is zero.

If Jerome Powell only looks at the number of vacancies tomorrow and decides not to cut interest (or adopt a very harsh tone), he will be committing a Policy Error classic. It will tighten financial conditions by relying on "ghost wanders" (which companies do not fill), while ignoring that the workforce has already entered defensive survival mode.

Conclusion for Traders:

The market is confused.

• Short Term (Algorithms): Strong dollar and yields (yields) rising due to the high number of vacancies (fear of inflation).

• Medium Term (Reality): The collapse in the rate of Quits for 1.8% validates the real economic deceleration thesis. This will eventually force the Fed to cut, perhaps later, but more urgently when the breaker begins.

Warning signal: Watch out for Bear Traps on risk assets today. Volatility will be brutal as long as the market digests that paradox by the EDF tomorrow.

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