Euro Looks Strong Ahead of FOMC Meeting

[Ben Graham]

The eurozone economy continues to demonstrate robust growth despite several challenges. The composite PMI index rose in October from 52.4 to 52.8, primarily due to a significant increase in the services sector, which reached a one-and-a-half-year high of 53.6.

At the same time, the final GDP data for the third quarter showed a 0.3% decline in household consumption, which is good for controlling inflation but poor for economic growth. While overall inflation increased in November, it remained close to the European Central Bank target, and core inflation stabilized at 2.4%, indicating a lack of inflationary momentum. As a result, there is no reason to revise the ECB's rate forecasts, which suggest the end of the easing cycle. This is a moderately hawkish factor for the euro. Additionally, the unexpected rise in average wages in the third quarter from 3.8% to 4.0% year-on-year, against a forecast reduction to 3.2%, makes a rate cut even less likely as it potentially poses a threat of inflation growth in December.

The euro has no reason to decline until there is clarity on what is actually happening with the US economy and how the composition of the FOMC members may change in the coming months. The threat of a quicker rate cut in the US prevents dollar bulls from resuming pressure, which is another factor supporting the euro's growth.

Regarding the US, the main event for the markets will undoubtedly be the FOMC meeting on monetary policy, along with the publication of new forecasts. Yesterday's JOLTs report on job openings for October provided insights into the labor market, appearing positive externally – 7.670 million, against a forecast of 7.2 million - indicating sustained labor demand. At the same time, the number of voluntary resignations and hiring decreased, while the number of involuntary layoffs increased. For the Federal Reserve, this signal may allow Powell to maintain at least a neutral tone at today's press conference, hinting that the pause before the next rate cut may be longer than the market expects. On the other hand, Trump's pressure on the Fed remains strong.

CFTC reports continue to be delayed and will only fully come into the schedule on January 23. So far, reports from November 4 have been published, when the markets were confident that the Fed would not cut rates at today's meeting. Therefore, speculative positioning on the dollar, which dominated in the first half of November, significantly distorts the calculated price at this time. Nevertheless, the calculated price remains above the long-term average with the prospect of further growth.

Last week, we saw continued growth of EUR/USD as the main scenario. Based on the criteria, this scenario still appears to be the most likely. The target of 1.1650/70 was reached, but there was no successful settlement above this zone, although the pullback was shallow. We anticipate that following the publication of the FOMC meeting results, the euro will rise. Much will depend on the tone Powell selects during the press conference; if he is perceived as dovish, the Fed's rate forecasts may be adjusted towards an even quicker cut, pushing the euro above 1.1730 with the prospect of rapid growth. Conversely, if Powell chooses a neutral tone, the growth will be less pronounced, and we see the euro in the range of 1.1690/1730.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com