GBP/USD Forecast on December 10, 2025

[Ben Graham]

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday bounced off the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362, above which it failed to close after three attempts. By Wednesday evening, the pair fell to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3294, and the rebound from this level this morning worked in favor of the pound and initiated growth toward 1.3352–1.3362. A consolidation of the pound's quotes above this zone today is highly likely, which will allow traders to expect growth toward the 1.3425 level.

The wave structure has shifted into a "bullish" configuration. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, at this time the trend remains bullish. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears have fully priced it in, and the news background in the U.S. also leaves much to be desired. It is difficult for the bulls to continue their attacks, but their position is now better than that of the bears. The "bullish" trend can be considered complete only below the 1.3186 level.

On Tuesday, the information background did not inspire most traders to be active, although in my opinion the JOLTS reports for September and October deserved attention. However, the market interpreted them as dollar-buying signals — but even that did not help the dollar. Its growth in recent days has been minimal, and today the U.S. currency risks losing quite a lot over the course of the day. In the evening, the final FOMC meeting of the year will be held, and I believe there will be no intrigue this time. The FOMC will decide to ease monetary policy, as it effectively has no other options. Most likely, Jerome Powell will take a dovish stance, and the dot-plot charts will show strengthened dovish sentiment within the Committee for 2026–2027. The changes compared with the previous version of the chart may be modest, but even that should be enough for the U.S. dollar to resume its decline.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose toward the 1.3339 level. A rebound from this level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward 1.3140. A consolidation of the pair above 1.3339 will allow expectations of further growth toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bullish over the latest reporting week, but this reporting week was one and a half months ago — October 28. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,052, while short positions increased by 10,539. The gap between long and short positions currently stands at approximately 82,000 vs. 102,000. However, these figures reflect the situation in mid-October. The picture may now be very different.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency enjoys some demand on the market, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Therefore, while the Bank of England may lower rates one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar significantly weakened over the course of 2025, and 2026 may be no better.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – FOMC monetary policy decision (19:00 UTC).
• U.S. – FOMC economic projections (19:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Jerome Powell's press conference (19:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for December 10 includes three mega-important entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment Wednesday evening will be very strong.

GBP/USD forecast and trader recommendations:

Short positions in the pair could be opened on a rebound from the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3294. This target has been reached. Long positions can be opened on a rebound from 1.3294 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3352–1.3362. These trades can be kept open today. A close above this zone will allow holding positions with a target of 1.3425.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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