What to Expect From FOMC Meeting Today: 3 Expert Predictions For Powell Speech and More

[Ben Graham]

Here are three predictions to expect from the FOMC meeting today. First ask yourself: are they pumping Bitcoin BTC $92,395.66 2.30% Bitcoin BTC Price $92,395.66 2.30% /24h Volume in 24h $45.51B Price 7d Learn more today so they can dump it tomorrow after the FOMC meeting?

Almost all economists are expecting a 25 basis point cut, yet nobody’s confident it will feel bullish. Futures pricing via CME’s FedWatch tool shows roughly 85-90% odds of a quarter-point cut, the third of the year, with the fed funds range likely dropping again from the current 4.75–5.00% band.

The catch is the tone. This is shaping up as a classic “hawkish cut” moment:

(Source: Polymarket)

Inflation is cooling, but not enough for Jerome Powell to declare victory. Core PCE is still running above the Fed’s 2% target on a 12-month basis.

So the Fed can justify easing, but it will not want markets to party like 2021 again. Here are three predictions you need to know:

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FOMC Meeting Today Prediction #1: What The Dot Plot Could Do To Stocks, Bonds And Crypto

The real drama lands in the Summary of Economic Projections. Let us explain; In September, the median dots pointed to three cuts in 2025 and only one in 2026. If the dots shift toward fewer cuts, or signal a higher-for-longer terminal rate, that hits everything including:

• Long-duration equities first (big tech, speculative growth)
• The belly of the Treasury curve
• High-beta risk like small caps and crypto

(Source: FedReserve)

Crypto, especially Bitcoin, has been trading like a leveraged bet on real liquidity. When real yields fall, BTC tends to catch a bid; when the Fed leans hawkish, those flows can evaporate fast.

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Prediction #2: Why This FOMC Feels “Too Priced In”

Market Cap

24h 7d 30d 1y All Time

Here’s the part that worries me: the market is almost unanimous. Fed funds futures price the cut. Sell-side houses are all pushing some version of “25 bps with stern guidance.” Investors are positioned risk-on into 2026, with surveys showing a clear majority expecting higher equities next year and no return to 2022’s chaos.

Whenever everyone thinks they know the script, the Fed usually smacks someone. That could mean:

• A cut combined with dots that crush hopes of multiple 2026 cuts
• Powell leaning hard into “financial conditions are still too easy”

If that happens, the first move after the statement is probably wrong.

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Prediction #3: How We’d Frame It As A Trader

If we were trading this live rather than writing about it, we  would:

1. Watch “financial conditions” language like a hawk; any hint that the Fed thinks markets got ahead of themselves is bearish risk-on.
2. Fade extreme first reactions in indices, especially if the S&P or Nasdaq rip higher on a cut but the dots and tone are tighter than expected.
3. Pay attention if Bitcoin sells off while the dollar and real yields rise, that’s confirmation the cut was hawkish in practice.

The Fed can still give us a gentle landing. But walking into a meeting where everyone is sure they are right is usually how someone ends up as the punchline on the chart.

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Key Takeaways

• Almost all economists are expecting a 25 basis point cut, yet nobody’s confident it will feel bullish. /key_takeaway]
Watch “financial conditions” language like a hawk; any hint that the Fed thinks markets got ahead of themselves is bearish risk-on.

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