PRATA: Price Breaks $61 and Climbs 110% in 2025 While the U.S. Manufacturing Go into Collapse

[Igor Pereira]

We are witnessing one of the biggest macroeconomic differences in recent history. On the one hand, the U.S. "real economy" is emitting signs of structural failure: manufacturing employers cut off 18,000 jobs in November, marking one of the biggest declines since the 2020 crisis. The industrial sector has been in contraction for more than three years, with employment falling in 25 of the last 35 months.

By Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst, Junior Member WallStreet NYSE

On the other hand, the precious metal market ignores economic deflation and focuses on monetary inflation and physical scarcity. Silver (Silver) is being traded above $61 per ounce for the first time in history. This explosive movement puts the metal on the path to an annual gain higher than +110% in 2025, the second best year ever recorded, losing only to the legendary +435% increase in 1979.

Why is the silver exploding now? My analysis identifies a "Perfect Storm" composed of eight simultaneous factors:

1. Physical Collapse in China: SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) inventories have fallen to the lowest level in 9 years. Massive exports of Chinese silver to London are draining domestic stocks, creating an offer vacuum in Asia.

2. Close in London: Liquidity in the London market (LBMA) remains tense. Loan costs (lease rates) for silver remain high, despite incoming flows, signaling that "free" physical metal is scarce.

3. The Trump/Tariff Factor: Traders are stocking silver in the US anticipating potential Trump-era tariffs on imported metals, which further tightened the London market.

4. The Hunger of India: The accelerated demand of the Indian subcontinent intensified the squeeze global.

5. Investment Demand (ETFs): The flows to ETFs of silver move to the 10th positive month this year. The volume of purchase options (Calls) is firing, showing the return of aggressive retail.

6. Fed Cuts: Expectations of interest cuts increase the appeal of real assets. The cost of opportunity to hold metals falls when bond yields decrease.

7. Solar Industrial Demand: The fourth quarter is the high season for photovoltaic installations. Real industrial demand is colliding with monetary demand.

8. Tax Change in China: The removal of VAT discounts (VAT) in some gold transactions pushed Chinese investors into silver as an alternative.

Silver is not only rising; it is overcoming all other assets. The Gold/Silver ratio fell to the lowest level since 2021, and the Bitcoin/Silver ratio collapsed to the minimums of 2023. Even at $61, the price remains well below the peaks adjusted by inflation of 1980.

We're seeing the monetization of a scarce industrial asset. As U.S. manufacturing dies, silver is reborn as the ultimate refuge asset for 2026.

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