Nasdaq 100: Post-FOMC gains wiped out, but technicals are still bullish

[Ben Graham]

Key takeaways

Post-FOMC optimism faded fast, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures reversing sharply on renewed US–China tensions and concerns over AI-related export violations tied to DeepSeek.

Sentiment worsened after Oracle’s 11.5% after-hours plunge, as weak revenue reignited worries over stretched AI valuations and dragged index futures lower.

Despite the pullback, Nasdaq 100 technicals remain constructive, with improving market breadth and key supports holding, keeping the medium-term bullish reversal bias intact.

The post-FOMC rally quickly fizzled in today’s Asia session, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures falling -0.8% and -1.1%, effectively wiping out Wednesday’s gains.

The pullback appears driven by renewed US-China geopolitical tension after reports that Chinese AI firm DeepSeek obtained smuggled Nvidia Blackwell chips, hardware banned for export to China, to build its next-generation model.

Sentiment was further hit by an 11.5% plunge in Oracle’s after-hours trading following weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue, reigniting concerns over stretched AI valuations and feeding into index futures weakness.

Despite the current intraday weak sentiment in the US futures, technicals are not suggesting the potential start of a medium-term downtrend phase for the Nasdaq 100.

Let’s dive deeper into several technical elements that are still constructively bullish.

Nasdaq 100 market breadth has improved in the past three weeks

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Fig. 1: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above 20-day & 50-day moving averages as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Based on the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks that are trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages, there has been a significant improvement since 17 November 2025, after the three-week down move seen in the Nasdaq 100 from its current all-time high in late October 2025, triggered by AI bubble fears and weakness in the share price of Nvidia ex-post earnings.

The share of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their 20-day moving average has surged to 65%, up sharply from 23% on 17 November 2025.

Similarly, the proportion trading above the 50-day moving average has risen to 56%, from 28% on 17 November 2025, though at a more gradual pace (see Fig. 1).

Peferred trend bias (1-3 weeks) – Bullish reversal remains intact

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Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 11 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The potential bullish reversal that has taken form on the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) since the 21 November 2025 low of 23,840 remains intact.

Medium-term pivotal support rests on 25,165 to maintain the bullish bias, and a clearance above 25,745 potential upside trigger level, is likely to increase the odds of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence to retest the current all-time high at 26,288 before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 26,480/26,545 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• Price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index continue to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 26 November 2025.
• The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has pulled back and just staged a rebound right above a key ascending support, which suggests a potential medium-term bullish momentum revival for the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

Failure to hold at the 25,165 key medium-term pivotal support invalidates the bullish scenario to kick-start a deeper corrective decline on the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index to retest the next medium-term supports at 24,540 and 24,000 (critical swing low areas of 10 October 2025 and 21 November 2025).

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