REDATOR Ben Graham Posted December 11, 2025 REDATOR Report Share Posted December 11, 2025 The US Dollar took a hit following yesterday's Fed decision, driven by mechanical flows typical after a rate cut.Given the rally to new cycle highs over the past two months, current outflows aren't surprising—benefiting not just the majors, but especially exotic currencies. Prior to the meeting, the Dollar had held relatively strong despite a dovish Fed repricing, ranging near its recent highs supported by elevated yields following Williams' comments.However, despite the Dot Plot projecting only ~2 cuts for 2026 and Chair Powell suggesting the US is entering the "high end of the neutral rate range," the Dollar is sliding back to mid-October levels. zoom_out_map US Dollar Performance against Majors since the beginning of the Week – Source: TradingView The cut itself was neither explicitly dovish nor hawkish; communications were solid. If you missed Powell's speech (great recap right here), he placed extra emphasis on inflation. Consequently, as noted yesterday, future inflation data may carry even more weight than the NFP (which is projected to ease gradually over the next year).The Fed has been driving blind with limited inflation reports since September due to the government shutdown, making upcoming prints critical for markets. November NFP is scheduled for December 16, followed by CPI on Dec 18.Let's dive into the Dollar Index (DXY) charts to spot how much deeper the Dollar can correct given this shift in fundamentals. Read More:Markets Today: SNB Hold Rates, SoftBank Falls 7.7%, Gold Slips Post FOMC. DAX Holds Above Psychological 24000 HandleNasdaq 100: Post-FOMC gains wiped out, but technicals are still bullishMarkets higher after the Fed Cut, but Concerns Remain – North American session Market Wrap for December 10Dollar Index (DXY) Multi-timeframe OutlookDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar is falling harshly after trying to hold its elevated range, nothing too surprising here – Yesterday's move was based from its 200-Day Moving Average acting as resistance and now breaking below its key Pivot Area rendering the DXY bearish short-term.Looking back even further, the US Dollar is holding a long-term rangebound trajectory since mid-2025 between 97.00 to 100.00 – Makes sense when looking at its first-half harsh fall (-12% since January).On the bigger picture, cuts have been expected for a long-time in the US so yesterday did not surprise Macro traders too much. Still, with the Daily RSI going towards the bearish territory and momentum getting strong, the fall should continue at least towards the 98.00 Support area, allowing other majors to appreciate.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Keep a close eye on the Dollar Bear Channel in Intraday timeframes which should guide short-term flows.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highs99.80 mini-resistance98.50 to 98.80 Pivot ZoneSupport Levels98.25 Lower bound of 4H Channel98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips) Next support97.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Watch to the reactions as the Dollar reaches the lower bound of the Channel between 98.20 to 98.30 and spot how other assets correlate.There has been profit-taking flows overnight in Equities so keep an eye on this and flows in other FX currencies throughout the session.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc. Visitante_cc27c11e and Visitante_7ffa1e4e 1 1 1 Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Liked! × 💬 Did you like this content? Your feedback is very important! Liked! Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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